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Alright, and what about the assets? Definitely, inflation is coming, the Fed is raising interest rates, American stocks will be a bit confused. American stocks don't necessarily have to fall a lot. Uh, but Asian stocks are devastated, especially Thai stocks. If you look at the track record in the past, you'll find there are about 5 brokerage firms that will definitely sell. Currently, 1 out of 5 has sold heavily. When will the remaining 4 out of 5 sell? Who knows? Just imagine, the year-to-date return for Thai stocks is over 20%, 30%, but the Thai baht has weakened. How much was it at the beginning of the year? This means your profits are decreasing due to the currency. And will the Thai baht weaken further? The risk is, with oil coming in like this, can we survive? Because this year, our current account will be in a large deficit, instead of being at break-even, balanced, or in surplus. The baht will not strengthen in this situation. And will foreigners stay? >> Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the biggest gold seminar in Thailand, is now available for rerun viewing. >> Most people trade gold, 95%. >> Hey, why are they losing money? >> A crisis period is the best time for you to convert cash into assets that are decreasing in value. >> You can watch the full replay of all Main State Stations. Follow for more details on Z Event. Another problem is that before this, we had issues with supply from the reserves of each country. >> Yes. >> We've used it all up, and oil should have risen a lot. There's no supply immunity at all this time. It was easy before, thought there was nothing else. Oh, there's nothing else, is there? >> Yes. >> It's done. Two weeks, I don't know what's going on, but oil has the potential to rise a lot. Not only is it expensive, but there won't be enough oil to use. This is the scary part. And what about the assets? Definitely, inflation is coming, the Fed is raising interest rates, American stocks will be a bit confused. American stocks don't necessarily have to fall a lot. Uh, [clears throat] but Asian stocks are devastated, especially Thai stocks. The question is, why do Thai stocks have to fall? Oh my. You know, the fact that it hasn't fallen for a day or two, I don't think it's a good thing to see foreigners buying. But I don't like that foreigners have been buying for two days. It means they haven't sold yet. >> It means they haven't sold yet, Khun Guitar. If they had sold a bit, we could say, "Oh, they just sold, maybe they'll buy back." They haven't sold at all. If you check the list of brokerages that are selling, they are not the prominent ones when Thai stocks are about to crash. But some are starting to sell. Some are selling heavily. And when we look at it, when foreigners leave, you have to look at the track record in the past. You'll find there are about 5 brokerage firms that will definitely sell. Currently, 1 out of 5 has sold heavily. When will the remaining 4 out of 5 sell? Who knows? And why do they have to sell? You know, Khun Guitar, just imagine, the year-to-date return for Thai stocks is over 20%, 30%, but the Thai baht has weakened. [clears throat] How much was it at the beginning of the year? This means your profits are decreasing due to the currency. And will the Thai baht weaken further? The risk is, with oil coming in like this, can we survive? Look at oil when it went to $100 a barrel in March, April. Look at our trade balance. A deficit of 6,000, 7,000 million. This makes your current account deficit. In the first half of the year, it's already over ten thousand million. And originally, the central bank predicted that in the second half of the year, the current account would have a surplus of over ten thousand million to offset the deficit, making the whole year zero, right? Now, I believe that won't happen. And if that's the case, it means our current account will be in a large deficit this year, instead of being at break-even, balanced, or in surplus. [clears throat] The baht will not strengthen in this situation. And will foreigners stay? What do foreigners believe about Thailand right now? Oh, politics is good. Politics is good. But corruption, 5,000 people, and nothing has been caught yet. Corruption investigation, over 5,000 people. It's so slow. Nothing has been caught yet. Is politics good? Uh, it's a CG problem. It will come back. It's unavoidable. The CG problem will come back. So foreigners won't stay, right? They've already got their money. Selling here, they'll get their money. Just thinking about it makes me shiver. Uh, this is in the worst-case scenario. >> Yes. And will energy stocks help our country, P'Ping? At least there are energy stocks that should benefit from oil prices. >> Uh, it probably helps a bit, but it's only about 20% of the total, only 16-17%, Khun Guitar. So, that's it. And the government has to solve the problem, right? Oh, they have to take profits from refineries. This will also affect the refinery group. But this is just the first round. But I think if oil really comes, if they cross the red line, and we can't assess the outcome from this and that, and we can't assess the time, can't assess the outcome, all these uncertainties. And how will the Thai economy survive? Domestic purchasing power is already gone, so much so that we don't know how much more it can disappear. SMEs are currently dying, struggling to survive. They're really dying. Who will buy things? I'm confused, I'm tired. But all in all, the good news is, I don't think they will cross the red line. That's why I want to sell oil, right? Listen to this, and it turns out, oh my, they're scared. It's not helping. Go back and listen to the beginning of the program. At the beginning of the program, I wanted to sell oil. I said that the situation has reached a crossroads. The first path is crossing the red line. If they cross the red line, people will die. Asia, especially Thailand, will definitely die. They will die a terrible death. But will we go that way? I still pray that we won't go that way. I still believe we won't go that way. But I'm looking at the game where the Houthis are getting involved. This is an opportunity for negotiation. Negotiation. And recently, the chance for negotiation is not zero. Recently, Iran revealed that they just rejected a ceasefire proposal from Iraq. Iraq's Prime Minister, Ari Al-Mahdi, I don't remember his name. Iraq's Prime Minister recently met with Trump, and then he visited Iran, and he secretly brought a negotiation paper to Iran. >> Yes. >> Iran said that this is considered the first and only negotiation document that Iran has received so far. Actually, there was a proposal from a mediator for a 10-day ceasefire, but Iran didn't mention it. They said that this is probably the clearest document that Iran has right now. But Iran has rejected it. Iran said that Iraq's visit is considered a neighborly visit. Doing business, economic cooperation, and what they presented are good things. But Iran, regarding this matter, this problem, the problem of war is not a communication problem. There is communication, and there are mediators. And Iran thinks there are enough mediators. Simply put, Iraq doesn't need to get involved. They are saying that there are already mediators. The problem is not just communication. The problem is the attitude of the American side. The American side is greedy, wants to dominate, wants something, I don't know. And what does the Iranian side want? The Iranian side wants clarity on Hormuz. They want to be in control. This is where the problem lies. That's why I believe there is still a glimmer of hope for negotiation. Because America has linked through Iraq to provoke Iran. That's why there's an opportunity. And Iran letting the Houthis get involved this time is clear. It's to force a choice between two paths: either fight to the death, or negotiate. Because if you are in the middle, everyone will be in trouble, uncomfortable, and in trouble. And right now. >> Yes, P'Ping, but it might depend on the timeframe. How long will it take to choose between negotiation or if an agreement is reached, as you predicted? How long will it take? How long can the market tolerate $100 oil? >> Uh, it depends on the inflation figures, Khun Guitar. For Thailand, I really don't know. The government hasn't announced anything yet. What is our remaining oil stock? What is the current oil fund balance, positive or negative? We can check ourselves, right? I haven't checked either. And regarding the oil price, when will the government subsidize it, how, and what? Not to mention the electricity bill. There's also the electricity bill. So, if you ask how long we can tolerate it, I'd say no more than 3 months. And 100 days, according to the old formula. 100 days. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> But I believe it won't be. Regarding negotiation, they should come soon. And if it's a red line, oil won't be at $100, it will go to $150 or $200. It will go very fast. Uh. >> Currently, Goldman Sachs says the possibility is $120. RBC Capital says WTI could reach an all-time high, higher than during the Russia-Ukraine war, close to $150. What do you think, P'Ping, how high can it go? >> If they cross the red line, it's all unpredictable outcomes. That's why they don't want to go. You will encounter things that are unbelievable. But the good news is, there will be midterm elections. It might not get that far because there are midterm elections that might help us, Khun Guitar. >> Hmm. >> Yes. >> But is it possible that we might see interest rate hikes, recession, stagflation in the next quarter, P'Ping? >> Uh, let's talk about interest rate hikes first. The possibility is very high. It's not about Kevin Watch. I can tell you, Kevin Watch, he doesn't want to raise interest rates. You can see that he doesn't want to, but the problem is with the Fed board, the FOMC board, Khun Guitar. >> Yes. >> Recently, who has signaled the possibility of raising interest rates? >> Yes. >> There's the first one, Jefferson, who is the Vice Chairman of the Fed. And there's board member Lisa Cook. You see Cook is ready to raise rates. Who else? Uh, Besth Max is ready to raise rates. There's also J. Powell. Don't forget he's a board member. >> Christopher Waller has also signaled that we need to manage inflation. If Christopher Waller and Michel Bowman have to come, that's 6 people. Just one more and it's done. And I believe it will be done by New York Fed. New York Fed, just joined this year. They've signaled before. Uh, they can raise interest rates. Oh, we won't survive this September if oil is like this. Like this. We won't survive. The problem is, the problem isn't just inflation. Inflation hasn't even arrived yet, Khun Guitar. The problem is with bond yields. They're not stopping. Bond yields are not stopping. Uh, they have to stop. Because if they don't stop, there will be problems. And how to make bond yields stop? We have to make the market know that the Fed is serious about managing inflation, like Paul Volcker did. He sent clear signals to the market that he would curb inflation. He wouldn't let inflation come. He would raise interest rates relentlessly. Inflation would stop naturally. When you believe the Fed is serious, inflation won't dare to come, bond yields won't dare to come. But when bond yields surge, everything indicates that they will have to raise interest rates, Khun Guitar. The scary part is the FOMC meeting next week. They might not raise interest rates yet, but they will signal something. But it's not certain. I think they might not signal because it will be a statement from Kevin Watch, right? Kevin might not say anything. So, next week, the world might not end. But it's really scary. They will probably raise rates. If it's like this, and oil doesn't go down. Oh, we won't survive. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. Now we have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminar access from [music] PR KP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please subscribe.