Transcription
Once again, good evening everyone. I hope that you had a lovely weekend and you spent today not, you know, chasing PR action, as today was not, you know, a good day to do so, which, you know, I did send a message about before the fact.
So, for everyone asking about when we will be transitioning to W, so actually, we'll begin doing so by next week. So there will be this next week or next month? Is next week? Next month? I don't know. So it'll be next month, right? We will have a section there and we'll be testing it, a, you know, a forum-like structure, whereas I will be messaging. And right, we will still have this Telegram chat, right? And this group, right? We will have them both for now until, you know, we can all agree that it's better or it's easier to use and so on, right? So just a heads-up for that. We'll be posting charts, you know, there. We will be having discussions, there will be having groups, there, we'll be having chat chats there, right? We will be starting with, you know, a single forum and maybe just a community for all of you to be able to message there. But we will still have, you know, our meetings here as usual until, you know, we decide that it's better, as I just said.
So, looking at the economic, which, you know, you should be seeing on your screen right now, we can all agree that the most volatility will happen when? On Thursday, right? And the reason why we skipped over Tuesday is not because it's unnecessary, but because it is not as probable as you would like it to be. It will not be as probable. Why is that? And this is something that you, most, you must take note of, after bank holidays, right? Due to the fact that we usually have, you know, every trader jumping in, they are, you know, excited, they are filled with emotions, everything, you know, happening in their heads, but shouldn't be happening in yours, right? They are looking forward to tomorrow, right? And this will not be the best trading day, right? The better trading day will likely come, you know, after Tuesday. Even though we have no news events on Wednesday, this does not mean that you cannot trade on Tuesday. It just means that you must lower your risk. If you are right, and that shouldn't even matter in the first place, right? If you see a setup, you can take it, just make sure that you're managing your risk because if you lose and you're managing your risk, you still won, right? We already know, right? Just by looking at this, and, you know, we have a high probability of the low, higher the week, right? So pinpoint entries forming, you know, on Thursday. And, you know, this is something that we've done before the fact. We last week, we already knew which day would have the most movement, and the days with the most volatility or the most injection of liquidity usually, you know, forms the higher low week, right? If we have price action supporting time, Friday, you can see that we might have Friday pulling back into the range of whatever happens during the week, right? And why and how did we come to that conclusion? Due to the fact that we have a high impact news event on Friday. So it's very simple to understand, right? We frame the week by anticipating when price will move the most, right? And bank holiday such as today, low probability price action tomorrow. We won't, we will have higher probability than today, but it will still be low in, you know, our eyes. Why do we have such low probability days during this week? It's week four. You already know what happens in week four, right? The algorithm is, you know, tuning down, getting ready to transition into the new month, right? So all of the big players are taking their money off the table right now. They are, you know, they already made what they're supposed to be making, you know, they usually make the most money during the second and third week, which is why we usually have, right, all the algorithm moving so much during, you know, week two and week three. Week two especially, due to the fact that we have CPI, right? So week two and week three, we get the most movements, and sometimes in week one, we get movement as well, right? So it's easy for us to know what to expect, right? And that's amazing in itself. Just by looking at the economic calendar, we know that, okay, we won't have a lot of movement here, but we're going to have movement on this day. So I need to prioritize this day.
Now, we will be taking a look at the index futures trade, right? So you can see that here, right? We took the, we took this low out, right? Right here, we took this low out here. We did not. So this, you know, will be something that will be introduced, not now. Well, yes, it, it's going to be introduced now, but it's not something that we will be focusing on currently, right? But I already talked about it, which is, you know, a bad habit that I have, right? So we took this low, and this low was when? Performed when? Friday. And this low is formed when? The following Thursday, right? So here, this is not, you know, the at the normal sequential SMT, or sequential SMT. It's not. But due to the fact that right here, we have, here we have Friday. Friday comes after Thursday. I'm not sure if you will understand this, right? Friday comes after Thursday. This is Thursday, but it's prolonged. It's, you know, it happened over a longer period of time, right? The normal sequential SMT would happen here during Thursday and Friday, but it still happened during Thursday and Friday. It's just that this Friday is from when the previous higher timeframe cycle. So, you know, we'll be talking about that as well, but that is something that will be, you know, discussed more down the line. So we did that here, and then here, what, what happened? The same thing occurred, right? So here, we had this type of SMT happening again, right? And then we had price rallying back within the range when? On Friday, right? So that's what happened here. Price rallied, rallied, rallied on Friday, which is usually what we expect, right? Price, as long as there is a high impact news event on Friday, we expect price to return back into the range, right? So here, we had the high of the week being when? Thursday. Here, Thursday, right here, here, Thursday, which is what we actually anticipated. So we are still in low probability conditions, right? It's not like, you know, some, some a setup whereas I can, you know, there won't be a setup right now where I can go live, which, you know, I will be going live this Thursday in the morning session, right? So know that. But right now, I can't just, you know, be like, okay, we're going to expect price to go here. Why? Why is that? Due to the fact that we have the Dow where? In discount. We have the S&P 500 in premium, and we have the NASDAQ in premium. Here, we had a cracking correlation in here. We still have a correlation, right? So price is out of sync right now. We have liquidity above this high, right? Above this high, right here. And if we have either of these highs being taken, right? If we have either of these highs being taken, right? It's already, you know, obvious to us that, you know, we would have, or we would likely have sequential SMT, due to the fact that this exact high is for, for the Dow is right here, right? And the high of this higher timeframe quarter will be here. So, right, it's very, you know, low probability that before we get some down movement of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, right, the Dow will be taking this high out, right? And you can, you, you already know, right? This cannot be hindsight, right? Because usually people, you know, they, you know, get, um, you know, shocked whenever we anticipate something and it happens, right? You shouldn't be getting shocked. Why? Because we, we always do this, right? And here, right, this movement of price, right here, we will look at as well, right? So here, this is, you know, something that you can study. So on this candle right here, and when we talk about this candle right here, it's not just this candle that we're referencing, right? It's the, it's the all of these candles right at, you know, this exact time, right? So here, we have this candle, and, you know, the, the fact that we have the Dow doing what it does during low probability conditions, and it's week four, this is what we should expect, right? It's not week two or week three, which is low probability. If you realize, those are the times when you usually milk the market. Those are the times when, you know, price is so obvious that, you know, it's almost as if you can't go wrong. So in this candle here, where did the closure happen, right? And we're not paying attention to the wick right here, just the closure happened within, you know, the proximity of this fair value, or, you know, I would call this a liquidity void. And, you know, if you watch the last lessons, you know why this is a liquidity void, right? So this closure happened within liquidity void. This closure right here, looking at the NASDAQ right now, right? This closure right here happened where? Above this liquidity void right here. Whenever we have such price action, right? This entire candle becomes reactive, right? So here, you, you see price pulling back here, you know, on this candle within this range, right? And then it expanded a bit. The same thing happened here. Price pulled back here, right? Within the range, and then expanded. So this isn't a big move, but this is just the reason why this happened. And of course, the, you know, most important reason is due to the fact that we had this SMT right here, and we already explained why this SMT is, you know, relevant. One second, right? And whenever we have the Dow out of sync, right? Like this, always just focus on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, right? So focus on these pairs right here, because the Dow will more than likely not be of any help, right? So for now, you already know we have liquidity here, liquidity here. Draw liquidity is where? Here, right? NASDAQ here. Let me click it here. That's the draw liquidity, right? We, we would consider this high being rated, right? For buy side or sell side liquidity, if it was, you know, caused by a news event, a, you know, injection of liquidity, which is the, you know, can be seen here, right? On Forex Factory. So until we have high news events, what do we do? We don't do much. And why is that? This is not clean price action, right? It's not. Here, price is literally consolidating right now. Here is the same thing. And then we have the Dow out of sync with these. Remember, right? We are not always, you know, saying that price is low probability. Last week, what do we expect? We expect that these clean highs to be taken out. After this low was taken out, what happened? We had price drop. And now we're looking at the S&P 500. We had price drop, take this low out right here. Right? We had price rally, and then we had a liquidity hunt right here. Then we had price drop and went for these lows, which is something that we expected, you know, before the fact.
Looking at the interest rate trade, right? You can see that this is, you know, to me, pointing towards some higher movement of price, right? At least slightly higher for the NASDAQ, S&P 500, due to the fact that we have this tracking correlation right here, right? We never, right? And this is very, very important. You already know we never overlook SMT. It's always important, right? So we have this right here, which is rare for the interest rate tries, right? Taking these off, it's better for you to, you know, well, for me at least, it's better for you to, you know, study price without, you know, drawing on them because it helps you, right? Think about someone that is completely new to price, right? Looking at this right here, they would, you know, not see anything. But, you know, that not only is this, or would this be considered SMT, this would be considered sequential, right? Due to the fact that we took this low out, right? This one did not take this low out, and this one, which is the T-bond futures, did not take this low out either, right? And remember that this is the reason why price turns around. This is the reason why you have, you know, retracements in the opposite direction. This is all that causes that, right? This is the importance, and it has to do with the specific lows that, you know, got ran through. It's not just any low, it has to be specific lows, the previous quarter's low, the current quarter, like wherever, you know, whatever you're looking at reflects upon the previous one. And, you know, you already know that that's the one of the only ways to be honest, like that will give you, you know, longevity in your trading or analysis. So we'll be coming back to this, and we will be here Thursday before the news event to see what, you know, has occurred, you know, so far in the week. More than likely, you know, Wednesday will be giving you an update, and if there's anything, you know, tomorrow that's significant of price, we'll be talking about that as well. Yes, someone said that in, I'm just, you know, taking note of this because I don't think that that person understands what's going on. Someone said that in one of your videos, you said for timeframe, the candle has to close below or above to be considered a sequence SMT. Okay, to make it easier for you, let's remove, let's remove the wicks. What do you see? Do you see it? Yes, you do. And now we'll look at the Forex market. The Forex trade, here you can see that this is, you know, low probability, low probability, yes. Thank you. You're welcome. Low probability price action, right? Which usually leads to, you know, extreme reversal, right? So this is the best thing, right? Whenever we have mirrored, you know, not mirrored, I just read the chat while talking. So whenever we have, you know, choppy price action like this, this is like what I love because I know that choppy price action is followed by clear price action, right? So here, right, for US dollar, and we look at the forward timeframe, we have a lot of, you know, sloppiness, right? So here we have the British pound and, you know, being totally out of sync with the Euro, and, you know, it's been like that for a while, right? So here, right, lots of choppy price action, but right, the, the liquidity that we have right here to, you know, watch for the US dollars here. So this low right here, very important, right? This high, right? We have a pool of liquidity here as well, currently, right? This is, this is just price setting a state for a reversal. So when will we know when prices are about to turn? Whenever we have sequential SMT. So for example, if we have the Euro taking this low, this high out right here, or this low out right here, while being out of sync with the US dollar, then we will, you know, more than likely have a reversal. But the, the liquidity run must be caused by a news event, and that's the important part, right? It must be caused by a news event. It must be engineered liquidity that causes price to turn around. Don't worry about, you know, you know, price being choppy or, you know, anything like that. This is what usually happens during these times of the year, right? And these times of the month, Q4, just as how, you know, during the last month of the year, we have choppy price action, that's always going to happen, right? That's always going to happen. It will happen this year, next year, the year after that, and the year after that as well. So for now, right, there is not much more for us to talk about. All we need to wait for right now is to see, right, price being in premium, there being bearish sequential SMT, right? Followed by either a precision swing point or an SMT fill, or the opposite for, you know, a bullish move. And we'll be here, right? During the course of the week, and we'll be touching upon, you know, whatever high probability moves show themselves. So pretty much, you know, done with talking about charts, but I will be answering some questions right now that I see that I see right here. What about the monthly cycle, intermarket sequence SMT between bonds and indices last week? I am not sure what you were talking about. If that happened, then I'm pretty sure that it played out already. Or if it happened and I didn't, you know, pay attention to it, it's just not important. The high timeframe sequential SMT with immediate lower timeframe cycle sequential SMT model by itself, yes, it is. But price must be in the appropriate, you know, range. So for example, it should be in premium if you're bearish, and discount if you're bullish, right? Every precision swing point, right, is specific to a certain timeframe, and we will touch upon that. So, right, we'll get, you know, which cycle, which sequential SMT goes with which timeframes, precision swing point, and so on, right? We already gave you one already, which you guys sure already know, right? Weekly sequential SMT, 15-minute timeframe precision swing point, which was literally the high of the week, right here, right? That's a two-stage setup in itself, right? As long as we have pricing, you know, premium that will allow price to, you know, reverse. And even right here, right? On this candle right here, right? This candle right here that I'm pointing on with my mouse, right? The low of this candle, right before price ran above these highs, what caused that? The same thing. Weekly cycle sequential SMT and 15-minute precision swing point. So we'll be here, right? During the course of the week. Do not, you know, overtrade. You know, try to be level-headed. It's hard if you're new, of course, it is. I know. But don't overtrade. The best trades that, you know, happen, the best setups just happen like two to three times a week, right? The best setups that are just, you know, on point. If you know, if you're always scalping, you'll find setups, right? But you'll, you know, take more losses, let's just say it that way. And it's, if you have a large capital, which some of you do have, it's, you don't need to be, you know, scalping, right? If you have like one or few, have like, you know, I just say over seven figures, you don't need to be scalping, right? Weekly, you know, two or three trades, high probability, make sure that, you know, you have this right here in for three hours at least. You can take 70% after you, you know, hit your take profit, then you let the rest run if you want to. Your stop at break-even, right? That's what you should be doing. Don't, you know, you don't need to be trading on anything even lower than a, you know, five or 15-minute timeframe if you have large capital. If you're someone now that, you know, is trying to run up a fund, you know, challenge or whatever it is, then yeah, you can be scalping, you know, why? Because that's not your actual capital, right? It's basically demo money, but you'll still be paid for it, right? So you can use that to generate large capital, which you will not be gambling with. I hope that you found this insightful. We'll be back, of course, as usual, and hopefully, when we're back, I am, you know, the next time I am 100% you know, not having a sore throat or, you know, cough or anything like that. So until then, have a wonderful week.