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Week seven, running back rankings time. Let's do this. A lot of healthy guys at the top that you drafted near the beginning of your fantasy football drafts are still still pushing your team forward. I know Hayden, we talked about in stats versus film on the fantasy points above replacement. Again, a lot of early running back seem to be playing and fairing quite well for people's fantasy lineups and draft strategies this year.
Yeah, big drop off once you get to about the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh round for running back production versus like, you know, the top 24 picks. So, second round hits, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, those guys are carrying teams. And all the first rounders, the ones that are staying healthy, have been fine. Uh, for the most part, >> Saquon, Dererick Henry are the in Genti to some degree, but in general, there has not been like that many guys that popped out of nowhere. Javvante is probably the big one. >> We'll talk about nearly all of those names today.
Let's kick things off with Bejian Robinson at the top that is at the San Francisco 49ers. Uh what could go wrong here? You know, no Fred Warner versus the best running back in the NFL. >> Yeah. And no Nick Bosa, too. And they've also some of the other depth pieces have been very hit and miss as well. So, he it's not even just the rushing numbers. The receiving numbers are ridiculous. You go back and watch that game and he's out in the slot. They like invented this position where he's lined up at the running back depth, but he's like in the slot. you see these plays where now he's like a full set of steam. It's it's it's some very impressive stuff. So, he's he's ridiculous and there's enough to go around where even Tyler Algier could get his because Bejon's catching so many passes. >> Yeah. Instead of watching his own tape from last season uh with Drake London playing in the slot, I think Zack Robinson watched the Christian McCaffrey tape with the San Francisco 49ers and yeah, got that kind of like >> shuffle motion and get him in between the tight ends and the wide receivers, but still in the back field. Uh, and yeah, again, the play where he converts a 30 yard gain into a 81 yard touchdown is, you know, just a cool difference of 11 fantasy points for you. Just nutso stuff. >> Yeah, it's insane.
Okay, Jonathan Taylor is up next. This is at the Los Angeles Chargers. Uh, recent running backs against this Chargers defense. Week six, Deon Achan, 128 yards, eight yards per carry. >> Yep. Uh he hasn't done that it feels like in weeks maybe months. Jakory Kroski Mr. We talked about it frequently on the show getting to the edge maneuvering against those linebackers and they're not even close to him. That was 111 yards nearly eight yards per carry and another two touchdowns. Then you can even go back to you know week three with JK Dobbins 83 yards seven and a half yards per carry there. >> Like you mentioned a lot of it's just perimeter runs where you have to have a running back with enough speed to get to the edge and Jonathan Taylor clearly can do that as well. So that's exactly how Bill got to the edge for his two red zone touchdowns and then Devonte Chin his uh 50 yarder was off the edge as well. So no coincidence this is comes with Khil Mack on the sideline and he's not expected to play here. The Chargers could sometimes get pretty light in the box and you kind of manipulate uh just the the count with with the smart play caller and I would say Shane Stiken could take advantage of that. Just the fact that, you know, Cliff and then McDaniels were able to do this. I think that Shane Sty is just gonna copy a lot of the same principles and they have a better offensive line than those two teams. >> Yeah, it's a great point. Syiken could either load the box if you wanted to with multiple tight ends and force heavier defensive personnel and, you know, maybe eight defenders in the box, seven defenders in the box, or he can spread it out and have, you know, one-on-one matchups with his offensive line and with his running back by, you know, having multiple wide receivers and then Tyler Warren on the outside as well.
Okay, Chris McAffrey is your running back three. This is the number one player in fantasy usage across the board. a running back three. How fitting uh in our minds when it comes to rushing performance, but he's catching a ton of passes and we hope that sustains itself even with potentially George KD on the way back. >> So, I don't think that George KD is going to play. The the big reason why is they did not open up his 21-day practice window. And if you don't do that, just typically teams don't just on the first time they do that, they're going to put him in the game because you could have just activated the week prior. So like typically you get activated, you miss a game, and then you come back. That's usually how things go. And we're in the this the first phase of that for George KD. So I think it's just going to be a banged up Jawan and you know Kendrick Bourne and then Christian McAffrey again and Tonis. So it's the same exact setup. So this is how he's been a wide receiver one and the rushing production is just not going to get there because the tight ends can't block as well. The offensive line's not as good. The the one note I have the 49ers are projected for 25 points. They're at home. This is still a good matchup. Just wanted to pay attention to this. The Falcons have only allowed 69 receiving yards to running backs this year. Easily the best. I it makes no sense. And when you go back and watch the the Bills game, for example, on Monday Night Football, they're just running a chaotic defense. There's a lot of like Flores type of principles where crowding the offensive line. They're simulated pressures. They're bringing blitzers out of nowhere and they're throwing a lot pre- snap at the line of scrimmage to sort where things are going to be out. And typically the the running backs kind of stay in pass protect because they're a little bit spooked of who's coming, who's not. So, I think Shanahan's going to have a better plan for that and they can use McCaffrey on the slot. So, not really dinging this too much, but breaking ties against Jonathan Taylor and Bejan Robinson just because the Falcons defense for some reason is just holding these uh running backs down. >> And it's not just running backs, weaves, I'll send this over to you, our buddy Matt Hamilton, who previously worked at GMFB and works with my buddy K. Adams that he pointed out that the Falcons are currently allowing the fewest passing yards per game of any team in the last 40 years. Any team in the last 40 years. They're at 139 net passing yards per game right now. That's better than the Oakland Raiders of 2006, the Philadelphia Eagles of 1991 before you were born. The Tennessee Titans of 2000 also before you were born. Uh and the Kansas City Chiefs of 1998, the year I was born. >> All right. That's pretty impressive. >> Ain't that nuts? And that does impact someone like Christian McCaffrey more than all these other running backs that we're going to talk about, too.
Josh Jacobs is up next. I am beat red. Uh this is against the uh Arizona Cardinals defense. Uh the Cincinnati Bengals refused to tackle Josh Jacobs last week. >> Yeah. >> Would the Arizona Cardinals do the same? >> Yeah, I don't know why you'd try to tackle Josh Jacobs. Seems like a total pain in the ass. Um Jacob just been completely balling. One thing I wanted to point out once again is inside the 10 yard line, teams have different philosophies. Are they're going to run the ball or try to do more, you know, Patrick Mahome styled flicks and whatnot. The Packers just sit there in eye formation pretty much just run it right the A gap and make you prove it. Uh so they're inside the 10 yard line. 32% pass rate. Uh that's 30th in the league. So it's all Josh Jacobs down there. Packers once again projected for over 25 and a half points against the Cardinals. So this month RB3 RB3 usage. Love it.
Okay, next up, Javvante Williams got stuffed, shut down last week against the Carolina Panthers, and now he gets a nice get-right spot if they can run the same type of stylings and concepts that the Chicago Bears did against this Washington Commander defense because uh Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu were horrific in that game on Monday night. Yeah, still waiting to get some offensive linemen back for Dallas, but in the meantime, they're what, first in points per game. They're just it's an insane offense right now. And they're not going to trust Jayen Blue at all, the rookie. They He hasn't earned the trust. And Miles Sanders is out. So, it's all Javante Williams. Cowboys fourth in projected points up at 26 in a half. So, I'm just going to continue on. He catches enough passes. He's used at the goal line. He's created some explosive runs and I think it's a well coached team.
Jir Gibbs all the way down, dare I say, as running back six, drafted in the top three in many leagues out there. This is against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which could be a bit of a light show in terms of points. Uh but, you know, maybe they don't even come out on top with the win. >> Yes. So, it should be a close game this month. Jir gives the RB11 on RB6 usage. So, it's not that crazy to rank them right here. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the best rushing EPA team for, you know, as long as this show has even existed. And that's remaining true this year. On top of it, the the one thing that is the caveat for Jir Gibbs, they are allowing the third most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. So, >> I'm stunned he's this low. I mean, they're project for 29 points. >> Yeah, they're just been diving it up a little bit as well. You know, it's not only Jir Gibbs and like the other teams like Josh Jacobs is it's not too far behind. It's like only Josh Jacobs. So, it's really close. He can have he can have a monster game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they just shut out teams um on the ground. So, I think he's going to have a decent day through the air. So, Bejian got him for 100 yards receiving, Bree Hall 31 yards, Christian McCaffrey 57 yards um through the air. So, I think that's how they're going to get this thing done. They also had a comment that David Montgomery is going to have a bigger game this week. So,
Okay, Kairen Williams is up next. Uh he's actually running back 11 in consensus rankings, running back seven for you. This is at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh the Rams have, according to my buddy Rich Rebar, if I'm still allowed to use that phrase. I believe you. I haven't texted with Let me check if I've texted with Reap 17 more 20 plus yard plays than their opponents so far this season. I mean, they've been incredibly stout up front, this Jaguars defense, though. Uh but no Lloyd in the back half at the second level, Devin Lloyd, and they're already 27th in receiving points allowed to running back so far this season in comparison to being sixth in yards per carry. >> I also think there's a chance that Blake Cororms not the same. Uh and that could lead to more just touches for Kairen Williams. And then with Puka out, there's I think some overlap between maybe getting some of that production down to the running backs. So, just expecting Kyron to be utilized a little bit more and he just had a really strong month. He's RB7 and RB9 usage this month. Team totals rock solid at 24 points. Um, Jacksonville not having Deon Lloyd does matter a little bit. And then Trayvon Walker also playing through an injury on top of it. So, I think a good time to catch Jacksonville. Um, in Europe, I think they're going to lean on their trusted players, which is Kairen Williams and Damonte Adams.
Let's close out the top eight with Saquon Barkley. >> Yikes. Uh, I mean, we keep talking about it, right? Offensive line issues are at the forefront here. Uh, it's consistently the talking point of not creating yards before contact like they were last year. And then it also prohibits Saquon Barkley from reeling off chunk gains after chunk gains. In previous seasons, we've tended to avoid this Vikings defense as much as possible against the run, but they're nowhere near close to as good against the at defending the run this year as they have been. I mean, they allowed 134 total yards and two scores to Kenny Gainwell and then 128 rushing yards to Quinn Sean Judkins. >> Yep. Notice the exact same trends there, which is just surprising because they try to invest so much money on the defensive line recently, too. So, we'll see. the the the it's this the same thing you talk about the interior offensive line is just not going to be the same as it was last year. Cam Jurgens is playing but playing through like he had back surgery and he's not the same player and their right guard is was a backup last year. He's just been starting for him. Then left guard it used to be like Landon Dickerson at full strength and he's been playing through a back injury and then he got rolled up on his ankle and then I think that Milada and Lane Johnson have not been all pro players this year um on the ground where they have been previously. So everyone's at fault here. He's still at 90.5 total yards in the pick lobby. And like you said, it's more of a neutral matchup than than a negative one for Saquon Barkley. But yeah, I I think that the efficiency decline does make sense after leading the NFL history in runs last year.
Hey, Bree Hall running back nine this week, running back 15 in consensus rankings. What gives you confidence against this Carolina Panthers defense? >> Well, there's nobody else to get the ball to. Let's start there. I mean like truly like nobody else. So, um Gary Wilson's not going to play. They were already 31st in neutral pass rate. You could only run Justin Field so many plays. So, like let's give him 14 carries. Let's give Breeze Hall 25 carries and let's refresh and see if we can get some explosive runs. Like they in theory have like a pretty decent offensive line and the Panthers are improved against against the runs certainly this year. I don't think there's some like defensive juggernaut juggernaut up front either. So, it's one of these situations where I just think, you know, they have nowhere else to get the ball to and like even the worst teams usually put up 200, 300 yards and I'm looking for anybody else other than Bree Hall to give them, you know, 100 yards and pick and lobby is up at 94 and a half. >> Yeah, most teams also don't have negative 10 net passing yards. >> I agree. Most teams most teams don't. No, your your final note I think is is worthwhile to talk about because Vegas has this team as we talked about in stats versus film projected for 20 and a half points right now. That's more than six, seven across the league right now. I didn't mean to do that mean. God, six, seven. I don't even know what that freaking means and it just popped into my head from what is going on. >> Okay. Uh, so if it's not through Garrett Wilson and it's not through Josh Reynolds and it's not through Anias Smith or whoever else these wide receivers are, then who does it go through? It has to be through Justin Fields running the football and it has to be successfully through Bree Hall doing that. I mean, this Panthers defense though, the last two weeks have been the best run defense in the league. They did just lose Pat Jones who season ending back surgery. So some rookies who have to step up there, but it's a fascinating one because it's really, you know, the sports book saying, "Hey, they're going to score 20 points, whereas the only way for them to do it is through the running game." And that's clearly the best at where the Panthers are on defense. >> And at the same time, the the vibes are so horrific. Bree Hall is just saying like free 20 on his uh Instagram or whatever the hell he's posting this at. So, he wants to get traded. I think they should trade them. The vibes are horrific. So like this is one where if you work backwards from the team total like you talk about then you have to have a big projection for Bruce Hall and at the same time who the hell knows with the New York Jets. >> I'm going to start posting free JO just randomly.
Okay, Quinton Judkins is up next as running back 10. We talked about it in Stats versus Film. 40% snap rate last week the same as Jerome Ford. uh instead of handing him the football in the second half, they decide to drop back Dylan Gabriel 60 times basically. But it cures all when you face this Miami Dolphins rushing defense, arguably the worst in the NFL. >> I don't even know who else you would argue is worse than them. The the tackle depth, every number that you look at for running backs, it's the Dolphins are are dead last. So, I'm moving him ahead of Bree Hall. Like the difference being just >> the Breeze Hall can get in a fight with the coach and I just don't think that Quinc Jun is going to do that here. Uh, so that that's the only thing. Um, the team total is definitely lower than Bree Hall. So that's where I kept going back and forth with these guys, but I think both of them are just in a really good spot. Like hopefully the game script stays neutral for both of these guys and it's supposed to be close games and these guys are heavily relying on. Also just think I think Quincon Judin just better at football than Bree Hall and I think that his odds of springing open a big play are a little bit higher. >> This might be the last time that Quinn Judkins is a home favorite all season. You know, >> they're two and a half point home favorite. So, this is the time to play him and this is the time to put him in the top 10. Uh, another note here, Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on a league high 60% of their possessions this season. That is the highest rate for a team through six weeks of a season in the 2000s. >> It feels like it. >> Shout out the worksheet.
Next, Rashad White, running back 16 in consensus rankings, running back 11 for you at the Detroit Lions. >> Let's move up one spot ahead of Bruce Hall as well. So with Rashad White in the two games where he's been starting, he's averaging 15.7 expected half PPR points. You average that out, that's about RB8 usage. I think he's a totally fine player. The team total for the Bucks is lower than usual. That makes sense, but still at 23 and a half points, which is higher than the Judkins and Bree tier, and it's like right there next to Saquon and Kairen Williams. And he doesn't really come off the field and he's a goal line guy. And I think if you start looking if Mike Evans is going to be out there but not himself, no AMCA, no Chris Godwin, I think that you can also probably start dialing up a couple screen attempts for Rashad White, which we have not seen as much. But I do think this would be a good week to kind of catch him. And the Lions, their their defensive line's good, but the rest of the team right now is just battling just due to injury.
Ashton Genty, running back 12. Do we keep him here behind Brie Hall? >> We do. This is where I end madness. Uh, Genty and the Raiders, 11point underdogs on the road in Kansas City. What must happen here is for Ashen Genty to retain the receiving usage that he got a couple weeks ago against the Indianapolis Colts when again they were heavy underdogs. He was targeted seven times in that game, five catches, 42 yards. That has kept him afloat in these environments versus, you know, the first three weeks of the season when he was being taken off the field for Dylan >> Lai. Yeah, that's that's exactly the reason why I have him as a low in RB1 this month. RB9, RB7 usage, just staying out there for for most of the game. Now, the Raiders are second lowest in projected points at 17, and the Chiefs have slowed down. Jir Gibbs to seven points, Montgomery 7.1, Travis ETN 7.3, Derrick Henry 6.8, Omarian Hampton 7.1. So, they've been pretty good. They got got by like it was like what Justice Hill and some other type of players but usually the the starting running backs had a pretty rough outing. It just they have nowhere else to get the ball to aside from Mash Genty. So it's it's the same exact problem with Quinc Judkins, Bruce Hall Genty. It's all it's all the same type of profile.
So the player you're lowest on in comparison to consensus rankings is Devon Achan. He's your running back 13. He's running back six in consensus rankings. Uh, I'm assuming the big deal here is the Cleveland Browns and not just the Browns, it's on the road in Cleveland and they're just an entirely different animal there too, >> right? I think in full PPR if you want to put them ahead of Quinch Judkins, I would not have any problem with that. Half PPR wise, it's just kind of middling this. The team total is down to 18 and a half. So, it's the exact same thing as Jingenti Quinton Judkins. Like, we're at that point. We're really far down there. And it makes sense. The Browns have superstar edge rushers. Defensive tackle and linebacker are really solid because of their draft picks. Uh Carson Swinger can actually go chase down these swing passes on on the perimeter. Um so I think this is a really tough spot for the entire team. The Browns are allowing 3.2 yards per carry to running backs and 3.5 yards per target to running backs. That is 3.5 yards per target is insane stuff. So, it's a terrible just match up for Ash or for Devonte Chain. He's still the RB8 this month. Um, so I I might by the end of the week slide him up by Quinn Judkins, but it's it's as like as bad of a match up as you can get for for him.
Jir Gibbs is the only back to clear 52 yards on the ground against the Browns so far this season. I know what you're thinking. Josh, you give incredible fantasy football advice. Thank you. That's why I'm here. I also know that you're thinking, "Josh, you have a horrific hairline." I do. So do many of you. So do many of men across the world. And if you're worried about yours or worried about it receding in the future, you should all be checking out HIMS, which by the way is incredibly approachable. Everything is online. You get a very personalized treatment plans that take and set your goals first. There are no hidden fees. There are no surprise costs. Just real personalized care on your schedule. It's very convenient. And they offer all sorts of different treatments. So for a simple online access to personalized and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more, visit hems.com/underdog. Yes, that's hems.com/underdog for your online visit. Hems.com/underdog. Individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Featured products include compounded drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions and important safety information.
Big conversation here. Rico Dowel running back 14 at the Jets. Just overall you do not have Chuba Hubard ranked. Do you just want to have like a conversation about that? Are you waiting for him to like be told that he is going to play all this type of thing before updating this before Sunday? >> This is one where this is we have to get back to this on the Sunday morning show. Uh just before going live here, it did seem like Chuba's going to play this week and is going to be practicing. So I will have Chuba Hubard ranked. I am siding with you that Rico Dattle has been too good to ignore as the starter, but I'm guessing it's going to be more like twothirds oneird. um if not around 5050. I'll be pretty surprised if this is like a you know an 8020 split just because what Chuba's done for this team. So that's where I'm at. And then also just throwing out there that the two last games were complete cupcakes and this one's not the same. >> Yeah. Dave Canales was asked today if Rico Data would start. His only answer was quote, "He has earned the right to help this team and we will find a way for him to do that." >> Okay, translate that for me. Uh, I think he will start and what I hope happens is like they both get a full series instead of like, hey, you do three runs or three plays here and then you get taken out because at least you can kind of build some momentum >> with a series in series out stuff. He's just been too good. He's been too good. I mean, the blocking has also been incredible. But at the same time, if you're given the second level and you break, >> you know, contact at the second level, that turns a seven yard run into a 21 yard run. And it's not like Chuba was doing that in the opening >> three weeks of this season on top of it. Uh and this also extends back to last year for Rico Dattle. >> Over his past eight starts, Rico Dado has gone over a 100 yards rushing in six of them. >> Wow. >> Yeah. >> Yep. >> Yeah. Pretty cool.
Kamani Vidal, another backup turn starter here versus the Indianapolis Colts. He's running back 22 in consensus rankings. He's running back 15 for you. What gives you confidence here? >> Huge team total. uh up at 25 points, seven most on the slate. And in the second half of the game when it was pretty close, the Chargers went to him on 76% of the snap. So it was a hot hand approach early. Hassan Haskins played the like eight of the first 15 scripted plays. Kimmani got the rest of them, but by the end of it, they decided to just go all Kamani Vidal and that was when they were leading. I also think that when they're trailing, Kamani Vidal is going to be utilized through the air as well. So, it's it's a going to be a close game against Indianapolis Colts. They got a huge team total. And last week, 20.2 expected half PPR points, which is like obviously RB1 caliber stuff. I can't rank them that high just because the uncertainty, but I do feel pretty pretty strongly that coming should be the lead back for the Chargers. >> This like a middle ground run defense. You can't really lean one way or the other on it. Um they're like 19th in yards per carry allowed, but they've only allowed three rushing scores so far. But at the same time, we talked about it in SVF that Kamani Vid Doll was getting those same swing passes in the red zone. That was big for >> um Amaran Hampton. I think he scored on one of them last week, too. >> Yeah. Yeah, it was at that little sprint out. >> Pretty cool.
DeAndre Swift up here at running back 16. This is against the New Orleans Saints. Again, I'm a certified DeAndre Swift hater, if you want to call me that. Uh the reason it was successful against the Commanders was because they are terrible at defending the runs that DeAndre Swift is good at. I think the Saints are a bit better at defending that, >> right? But I think they kind of unlocked something with the offensive line and Darnell Wright was playing healthy. We talked about the left tackle that they found um from our our friends up in the north and the the team is just projected for the fifth most points, 25 and three/4ers points. So it's it's a huge team total. So, I wouldn't be surprised if DeAndre Swift's actually ranked even higher than this by the end of the week once I kind of sit on this. So, yeah, I just think they're getting in the right areas and he's going to be boom busty, but the Bears offense is it's jelling. Like, they even put up a lot of points when Caleb had one of his worst games of the season. I just think that they've found something with how to utilize DeAndre Swift and having the right buyin from the wide receivers and then also just getting better run blocking from the offensive line. Yeah, if they can recreate that to even 75% against better defenses, then yes, >> that is going to equal production for DeAnd moving forward versus what he did in like the opening five weeks of the season. I will say New Orleans has allowed just one running back to reach 70 yards on the ground this season. So, we'll see.
Bill Crosky Merritt or just Bill is running back 17. This is at the Dallas Cowboys. We know he fumbled last week also when missed exchanged, but more importantly he totally dominated the touches. Really the first time any commander running back has done that all season long. Uh Cowboys run defense nightmare bad. I mean Kenneth Murray is still one of the worst linebackers in the NFL. >> Yeah. Yeah, and commanders are third in projected points. Like you said, they can't stop anybody over there in Dallas. Josh Jacobs got him for 30 points. Breeze Hall up at 17 and a half. Rico Dowel, they held him to 32 fantasy points. So, it's it's ready to go time for for Bill. He just needs some goal line carries, which he'll get. Chris Rodriguez did not get anything. No touches at all this last week. Um, so he's just going to be the early early down grinder type as Jeremy McNichols plays on passing downs. That's totally fine when you're projected for this many points.
Cam Scataboo, running back, 18 at the Denver Broncos. Talk to me about this one because he's one of your favorite players in the league and this is one of the most difficult defenses on the road in the league. >> It's pretty much like as far as I can drop him in my rankings for what he's been profiling as. Like this month he's the RB6 on RB4 usage and he gets goal line work and catches passes. So he's game script independent. The problem is just they might not be able to, you know, march up and down the field. the they have the lowest team total of the week at 16 and a half in Denver. So it's it's a tough spot for Cam Scatterabot to get home, but he's also like the entire team right now. So 72 and a half total yards in the underdog pickum lobby right now. And this month, the Giants have the lowest neutral pass rate in the league. It's just jam your head into the into the the linebacker in front of you with either the quarterback or the running back, and that's the entire playbook. and I'm here for it. >> Yeah, I think the last time they were road underdog, he had six catches for 45 yards. So, >> need that once again. Um I also think they're center, John Michael Schmidt is in concussion protocol, which is not fun. >> Not fun. It's not he's like an elite player, but yeah, center, you know, rookie quarterback when you're no longer center, like that's the tough part.
Travis ETN is running back 19 for you. Three games in a row with less than 60 total yards. It's kind of a little bit of a decline in terms of his overall success, at least the last two weeks here for ETN as we get into October and November. >> Definitely. So, uh, not having his center last week hurt him. The matchups recently have been, uh, more difficult. And this is another tough one here. The Rams have not allowed a running back to rush for a touchdown this year. >> Yep. >> That's that's pretty difficult to do. and Jacksonville. Their team total's typically been in that 23 26 point range. This week it's below 21. So it's just a in general a tough matchup for Travis ETN. He's still getting most of the usage and he's still capable of ripping off a big play. So hopefully get their center back. I figure what what exactly his injury was. So that'll be something I'll update later in the week.
Jordan Mason off a byee enters the chat as your running back 20. This is against the Philadelphia Eagles who have actually allowed a top 15 scoring uh running back in every game but one this season which was the Kansas City Chiefs and their running back situation. >> Mhm. Jaylen Carter hasn't been playing every game for a variety of different reasons. So, we'll see uh what happens there. I think it's what a heel injury right now. So, that like really swings things. They just don't have as much depth on the defensive line. So, like I know Jordan Davis is very good, but you know, like Nolan Smith types, like all those guys, it's just they're lacking depth beyond that, >> right? I mean, last year it was Jaylen Carter, you know, Jordan Davis and Milton Williams. >> James 100. Yeah. The the third guy was the hundred million defense attacker. Correct.
All right, brings us to running back 21. That is JK Dobbins on the opposite end of that Giants matchup. Uh he's still getting the vast majority of touches in terms of carries in this backfield, but he has to be an effective runner because I believe he only has six receptions on the season. >> This one's a lot more straightforward. So he's the RB 23 and RB30 usage. Like you said, he's getting it done on the ground. Kind of gets schemed out on third downs and passing situations. RJ Harvey's playing a little bit, but I really like JK Dobbins when they're expected to score a bunch of points. This week they're at 23 and threequarters points to host the Giants who even they got a bunch of defensive linemen have just not handled the run very well this year. And I don't think that Dexter Lawrence is playing like himself just dealing with like he's got this big elbow like pad brace going on. So I wonder if that's something to do with it. And their their edge rushers are a little bit on the smaller side. So I think it's a fairly good spot for for JK Dobbins and he hasn't done anything to kind of erode his presence as the clear RB1.
Okay, a bit surprised to see Jaylen Mo listed as running back 22 here. This is obviously at the Cincinnati Bengals who struggled to tackle people. Is this purely a >> uh projected points play for Thursday Night Football? >> Do you think this was higher than you were expecting or lower? >> Yeah, higher just because >> they're kind of getting all three guys involved now. >> They are. Yeah, they are. Um I think that the consensus ranks even has them higher than this though. >> Am I wrong wrong with that? >> Uh running back 18. So yeah, four spots. >> So yeah, kind of split the difference. I guess I am acknowledging they are getting Kenny Gainwell and Caleb Johnson involved uh to certain degrees. Jaylen Warren's coming off of his worst game in usage at 7.9 expected points this last week, but like you said, it's the Bengals and they're predicted for top 10 points. So I think he's live for for a touchdown. Um, I have taken a lower in the pick lobby on his rushing yards, but um, I think they can get down to the goal and just hand it off to him. >> Yeah, I can be totally wrong, but I I think even consensus rankings are kind of latching on to his usage in the opening like three games of the season. And it's not just, you know, splitting 42% 42% with him and Kenny Gainwell. Now we get the 18% to Caleb Johnson on top of this. >> Yeah, correct. And Kenny Gainwell could be the guy that's gonna catch a bunch of passes, too, which it was. >> Or Kenny Gainwell could be the guy near the goal line. We didn't see the inside the 10 yard line carried last week either, so we don't know that answer. >> And Caleb can get down there in the goal. He's a big dude. Who knows?
Raandre Stevenson is running back 23 for you. This is about 15 spots ahead of his running mate in Trevon Henderson. This is at the Tennessee Titans here. Um, Randre Stevenson this year has a worse success rate and a worse explosive rate, but the only thing that matters in this offense is that he has outtouched Trevon eight to one inside the 10 yard line so far. >> How close is Trayvon those staff? It can't be by much. >> It's not by much, but >> it's not by much. >> I would say Mandre is right next to Zack Charbanet in both of those metrics, >> right? I I to I totally see the same thing. He did get both the uh goal line uh touches this last game. is another one of these situations where we got to pick somebody because the Patriots are top 10 in projected points. They get the Titans this week who've been third worst against fantasy running backs. They've let the starting running back on the opposing team get at least 15.6 points in four straight games, which is a lot. And then in week one, that was at 13.8 to JK Dobbins. So, it's just been like RB2 or RB1 finishes against Tennessee the entire season. Last week it was clearly Raandre Stevenson over Tayvon at about like a 2/3 to one3 split. And I think that goal line touches are just going to favor Raandre Stevenson.
Ken Walker. Speaking of Zack Sharp, here we are against the Houston Texans defense. Two, this might be like the good old fall defensive matchup with, you know, some offensive power from firepower coming from the Seahawks end. Uh, I'm not sure what fall looks like in Seattle, but I'm sure, you know, it's beautiful with all those trees changing colors. At the same time, it's also a prime time game at 10 p.m. Eastern, so we're not going to see any of that foliage possibly. >> Who knows? Who knows what shots they'll come up with? Maybe that get that big volcano, right? >> I'll probably be asleep again. 10 p.m. Eastern on a Monday night. Are you kidding me? >> Yeah. >> Are you kidding me? >> Okay. I don't love it enough. >> Um, can joking? I'm joking. Um, last week season low 6.9 expected half PPPR points for Kenneth Walker in the games with Zack Charbanet. He's more of a flex than like a RB2. He's going to be boom bust is like the way that they utilize him. Zack Charban was getting like drives out of time. He's always going to get the two-minute drill just because they trust him there. And I think they're just trying to keep Kenneth Walker fresh after all those injuries that he usually picks up. And this is just very tough matchup like you said. Did you see what I reposted on Twitter today about Demiko Ryan's? He was asked like, "Oh, why is this Seattle Seahawks offense so successful?" And he's just like, "Well, it's the uh play action game off of outside zone." And then he gushed for 30 seconds about how good Ken Walker is. >> And that's the only running back you mentioned. That's just all >> interesting. So interesting. >> Demo knows ball. >> I'm sure the comments love it.
David Montgomery running back 25. Uh we already talked about Jir Gibbs. Uh again, recycle. If a team like the Lions are projected for 29 points, you would expect Dave Montgomery to get a touchdown. >> Yeah, that's the math I typically go with. This month, he's the RB18, RB29 usage. They got away from him this last week, but they're going to go back to him. Um if we buy what they say at the podium, which I pretty much do. The lines seem pretty forthright in what they're what they're saying. And if you look at the efficiency numbers, David Montgomery and Jamir Gibbs, it's like the exact same thing. So, this is like no longer the Zeke Elliot and Tony Pard uh meme. >> So, should be higher. Again, we're talking about a team that's top two in running back usage that is projected for 29 points. Like, should he go above >> Warren? Put him Warren. Yeah, put him ahead of Warren. >> Okay. >> Well, but then then that's the bit dicey because then, you know, we got to move down Kenneth Walker. Fine. But dude, Kenneth Walker has RB25 written all over him. >> How about we just like move Jayen? I'm just kidding. >> You can keep him up there if you want him on the third row. >> No, it it screws up with how it's cut out and post and all that type of stuff. >> All right.
Alvin Chimera is up next at the Chicago Bears. At most over the last three weeks, he's handled 57% of backfield runs. Um, the Bears are better at stopping the run, but they are worse at receptions to backs. And actually, Alvin Chimera, I think, had like his highest receiving totals last week of the season. >> It just keeps going back and forth. I don't have a good read on when they're going to use Alvin Chimera, the receiver or not. All I know is receiving yards per game is at 20. In his first eight seasons, it was at 42. So, it's been cut in half. I think that's a Kell Moore choice. They're getting Kendra Miller involved, especially in the second half of game. So, it just not been very pretty for Alvin Chimera. RB35 and RB16 usage. He's been the least efficient running back. It's him and like Chase Brown. Um, according to my model, and it makes sense like the team's not all that good. Alvin Chimera is not the same exact player. So, we're getting into the tier where it's like starting to be a little bit less fun to start these guys.
Just an update. Um, it came through right now as a recording that George KD's practice window has opened, but he still could, you know, sit out this week and get healthy for another week. Just want to point that out. >> Good. >> Before the comments get us, Isaiah Pacheco stands in as your running back 27. We keep saying it. I test aesthetically. He's probably looked his best over the last three games than he has in his last 13 games. Uh but he only has two touches inside the 10 yard line all year. So, it doesn't really matter. >> Largely doesn't matter. But did come off a season high in usage last week at 12, which is pretty solid for expected points. and the the Chiefs have the second most projected points of the week up at 28 and a half. So, it's like the same principle as David Montgomery. I know that a lot more goes through the air with Patrick Mahomes, but there's I'm starting to see the pathway of how things can start opening up for Isaiah Pacheco in your consolation bracket. Uh, but we just get got to see if Kareem Hunt is going to continue with the goal line role. I think he is, but there's a chance that we get Isaiah Pacheco like an 11 yard I remember like 11 yard reception touchdown from him and he he can create an explosive every now and again. And I just don't trust the Raiders defense at all. So just fully fully believing in the Chiefs. I think you can do worse than Isaiah PCO at this point. >> Yeah. So um if we look at it, Patrick Mahomes has uh 222 rushing yards this year and four scores and Isaiah Pacheco has 214 rushing yards this year and zero touchdowns. Yeah, >> it's just it's amazing to me that Mahomes has like totally said, "Oh, every game is big now. I'm just going to scramble all the time." Uh I mean, he's >> projected to basically double his season high output, and he's unpaced to do that basically this season. >> He's playing like the the playoff Mahomes in the regular season. We've like you said, we've never seen this style play before.
Anything you want to add to Zack Charbanet here as running back 28 against the Houston Texans who are coming off a buy and have a really good defensive line. >> Season high 13.7 expected points for Charbanet last week. Um >> it's it's nice when you get stuff three times at the goal line. That really good in the spreadsheets. >> Spreadsheets do really like that. Um plug your ears RB23 in usage this this month which is higher than Kenneth Walker. >> Really nice. Get stuffed at the goal line a lot. >> Right. Right. Right. You can start Zack Charmin in the flex if you're desperate. That That's as far as
I'll go.
Okay. Tony Pard is running back 29 against the New England Patriots. Uh, they are heavy underdogs in this game and rightfully so. My concern here is that Taj Spears ran 26 pass routes last week versus Tony Pard's 13.
Right. And I think that trend line is just going one direction for Taj Spears and one direction for Tony Pard. And hopefully, if we have Tony Pard on any leagues, he gets traded from Tennessee, and they shouldn't do that. That's just not going to happen this week. So, coming off a season low in expected points, and I don't see that changing. So, and then the matchup's really bad, too. It's not even just that they're projected for so few points, they always are. The Patriots defense, after investing so much on in the front seven this off season, um, they're the fifth best fantasy running back defense in the league. So, I, I don't even know why he's married 29 to be honest.
Uh, we'll probably record like a trade short for social. Hopefully, all of you are following us on Instagram and TikTok and all these places, but I'm kind of surprised Tony Pard's name has not been mentioned. Now, again, how many teams are looking out there to buy a running back? But he has no guaranteed money left, and uh, we know who the Titans are at this point, and they want to get Taj Spears more involved. And I think Tony Pard still has something to him. So, look, we heard the Chargers are making calls about running backs. I would love to see Tony Pard and the Chargers.
Yep, that would make a ton of sense.
Chase Brown, running back 30. Uh, right now Cincinnati ahead of Thursday Night Football. Who knows what can change here. Uh, they have a negative 80 point differential, the worst in the league, and the worst through six games since 2002.
For them or for everybody?
For anyone here. Oh, that's not good. Um, yeah, the Bengals are dead last in running back usage this month. I will put them ahead of Tony Pard at least.
TP sent to the dungeon.
These guys have been, they've been next to each other for right reasons for the last month. Um, there's just not a Taj Spears right now threatening Chase Brown. It's just Saj Per.
That's not true. That's not true. Wait, Sama's playing?
Sama played a lot last week.
He does play. He does play enough, but
I think it's second game in a row below 55% of snaps for Chase Brown.
Yeah. Uh, last week, season low for him as well, 8.1 expected points, where Tony Pard, season low 6.5. So, I mean, we're, this is consolation bracket material stuff here. It's, it's not like
He has yet, he has yet to post more than 71 total yards in a game so far this season.
Yep. I mean, okay.
We're running out of bodies down here.
Yeah. I mean, I really should just start a new tier. It's like
Jo
Dungeon material.
Yeah.
Uh, but somehow someway, Woody Marks is behind all of them as the first Texans off the board.
Woody Marks, Nick Chubb. I would like to know what's going to go on here. I will say this, this is one of the worst offensive line, defensive line mismatches we will talk about the entire season. I mean, they have no chance, right? Is am I crazy here? That
No, you're not. I mean, imagine coming off a buy after posting your best offensive performance of the season, and you're projected for 18 and a half points this week.
Yeah, it's not great. It's not great. Um, so the fourth lowest team total of the week for Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. I'm hoping they go to Nick, uh, to Woody Marks here. The Seahawks have allowed the most running back receptions, and that's kind of the counter to them. But if you go back and like look at the, the running backs they've played, it's all of the elite pass-catching running backs. So I don't want to read into that all that much. So it's a, it's a tough situation. Maybe I end up putting Woody Marks ahead of some of these guys. If we get a little bit more optimism coming, coming out of that's actually going to be his role, but remember it was clearly Nick Chubb ahead of Woody Marks the game before the buy.
And the game before that, Woody Marks ahead of Nick Chubb. We just have no answers.
Neither do I. Michael Carter is the first Cardinals running back listed here, despite Bam Knight outproducing him last week. Uh, but Michael Carter did get the start.
Yeah, this is, it's nearly a 50/50 in terms of of snaps. Bam Knight's more likely to get a goal-line carry, but Michael Carter is more likely to catch passes. And when you're, what's the point spread here against the, the, the Packers? It's, it's a ton. I just think that Michael Carter is just going to be out there for, for more snaps this week. So, if you're in a full PPR league, I would play Michael Carter over Bam Knight, and hopefully you get a touchdown from either one of them, but they're not expected to score a lot of points here once again. Um, under 20 at 19 points this week.
Yeah, it's at six and a half. By the way, I should have mentioned this way earlier. Way, way, way earlier. I know producer Weaves has been putting, uh, all of the Underdog Pick'em lobby screenshots on the video as we've been going along. If you want to support us, the best way of doing that is to support Underdog. Use the link in the description down below. Promo code, the show. Uh, if you play $5 for the very first time, Hayden will throw a hundred bucks in your direction. That's it. We're in like 40 of 50 states right now. I think over 40 at this point. So again, a year or two ago, if we were not allowed to be in your state, look at Texas, California, Georgia, all these places. Now you can play in some form or fashion over on the dog app. So go and play on Underdog.
All right, Kareem Hunt. Goal line galore is here for a high, high team total for the Kansas City Chiefs. Uh, you're hoping for a touchdown.
That's it. That's the whole process.
Nick Chubb, we already talked about him. And then Bam Knight in his Detroit Lions gear because, uh, even all ESPN and name your provider did not want to put a PNG of him with, uh, a Cardinals uniform on.
Okay, fair enough.
Technically three Lions running backs, uh, on this list. Kenny Gainwell, we've talked about him. Tyler Algier, anything you want to add about the fourth down monster that is TA?
He's a good player. You know, I really like watching him run. So, I'm very curious to see where he's gonna land in free agency this next year, but he seems like he can be the Rico Dowell or Javonte Williams of
Or Jordan Mason.
Jordan Mason, all those guys. Yeah, totally makes sense. There's really no, there's not a big difference between Kenny Gainwell and Woody Marks and all these guys. These guys, it's bottom of the barrel. I'm trying to squeak by with a win during byweeks and injuries, and you can plug and play these guys and hope for a touchdown, but the projections are really low. After doing this full episode, you just really got to appreciate if you got one of those top guys in the, the top row. I mean, you just got to be, just count it up because it's a huge difference.
Well, and we'll end things with R.J. Harvey and, uh, Trevvon Henderson at the end because they're rookies and, uh, based on this ranking, it could only go up from here.
I mean, that's true. They're literally at the end of this list. It can only go up.
They, they could be left off of it pretty soon. You know,
I'm joking. Devondre Sweat, most likely not coming back because his practice window just opened. Again, if the Patriots, Titans could block a little bit, Jordan Henderson should have an opportunity or two against the Titans. That's all I'm saying.
Move him out. Move him ahead of Harvey then.
Oh, I like. You mean here or here?
You, you play Stravon.
We're good. Let's get out.
Okay.
Shout out to all of you. Shout out to Weaves and Mo Show behind the scenes. Appreciate everyone. Please, please, please go play on Underdog. Uh, they allow us to do the show. Up the villa. We'll talk to you all soon. See you.
And your buddy K. Adams.
Yeah, I know. K. I mean, do you want me to pull up? Whoa, whoa, whoa. I mean, what, what, what are we trying to do here?
Okay. I mean, I'm not trying to pull receipts here, but I mean, I don't even know if you want to include this in the, in the show, but, uh, when was this? K. Adams on Monday, July 7th. Are you ever in LA, New York? Let's get coffee. Just saying.
Okay, I'll give you, I'll give it to you. I'll give it to you.
I mean, are we, Don't do her. Okay, let's move.