Transcription
treasuries that are maturing this year.
>> And that is becoming a larger and larger direct bill to Congress. There is a path where you make a bunch of people rich, you close the deficit, and the, you know what, is spread over a much wider unsuspecting audience. This is where SpaceX comes in. Are we ready?
>> Um, yes, the tenure is, in fact, the global benchmark for a lot of very important things. But also, because of an inability to auction sufficient quantities of long-term debt to satisfy the ever-growing budget deficit, you're seeing started with Yellen and continued with Bessant, despite Bessant's criticism of Yelen for doing it prior to ascending into the chair, that the U.S. government is shortening the duration of the debt outstanding by issuing short-term paper.
And when the Fed "cuts rates" or "increases rates," the Fed is increasing or cutting rates on the short end of that curve. And that is now becoming a larger and larger direct bill to Congress. Congress, in the form of increased interest charges, as this—yeah, there you go—as this paper is being shortened and shortened in duration.
Um, and so that's that—that's where we're skipping a step where the Fed tries to pretend like it could hike rates. Um, and then, you know, next thing you know, you have to do yield curve control because you just have too much debt rolling over.
Now, this is where SpaceX comes in. Are we ready?
>> I'm so curious.
>> Yeah. Before you, just to let people know what we showed here is that—
>> Look, this is—this is the amount, these are the treasuries that are—they're maturing.
>> Yeah.
>> This year.
>> And next year.
>> And next year.
>> And so, you could see just how much Yellen and Bent have been playing, basically playing chicken with the Treasury, with the Fed, saying, "We're going to—we're not going to term out the debt. We're going to just keep issuing T-bills, issuing T-bills to manage that deficit." So, but yeah, let's go on to, uh, SpaceX.
>> Yeah. So, let me give you like a wild—again, this type of lateral thinking that we do, and we're not going to write about it, but I'll share it with you guys on the podcast. Um, Ponzi has financial suppression. So, what do I mean by that?
Um, if I was facing a wall of short-term paper that needed to be, um, rolled over, I'd be interested in juicing tax receipts. And so, let's just imagine we invent a company and tell the world it's worth two trillion. I'm—I'm speaking, um, in extremes to make the point. Sort of a classic lateral thinking tactic, like, "Let's just go to infinity."
So, we're just going to tell everybody this company's worth two trillion, and there's a whole bunch of well-heeled VC investors in it, special purpose vehicles in it, and they're all in it at vanishingly small tax bases. Um, so that which was marked at 100 billion a year ago, 200 billion a year ago, we're just going to say it's worth two trillion.
Now, as the IPO rolls out and the insiders start selling, well, every transition of a share from an insider to a 401k or a retail investor or a global investor creates a taxable event: capital gain. Let's just say for round numbers that the increase in tax receipts from this IPO this year will be 300 billion. It's not that crazy. A trillion rolls over.
You have—I mean, if you're sitting on $50 million of SpaceX stock and you invested, I don't know, a million many years ago, what are you doing? You're not—you're selling, going to buy me some treasuries, right? And you're going to pay taxes along the way.
And so, okay, one IPO is 15% of the bogey. Now, we have Open AI coming. We have Enthropic coming. So, if you just create paper gains and force retirees and convince retails to buy it at ridiculously high prices, all the people doing the selling are going to be sharing that with Uncle Sam. Yeah,
>> That was sort of our aha moment this weekend as we gave this a deep think, which is, maybe it's not as bad. So, when we were talking earlier, you know, um, there's no way around it. Well, there is a way around it, which is to trick people that something's worth 10 trillion, have 3 trillion of it come in the form of receivables, and we wipe out some of that debt, and also stable coin issuance and all the other things that we're seeing as sort of a soft form of financial suppression.
There's the—the part of the story where you just go and take it from people's 401k accounts. You know, the—that—that's one way, but the other way is you indirectly take it by dropping bags on them, to—to speak bluntly. And, um, it's probably a little tinfoil, little woo-woo, a little out there. Um, but it kind of makes sense.
>> If they—if—if SpaceX immediately is included in the ND, uh, you know, the NDX100—
>> Yeah. And, uh, there—there's plenty of shares that that would have to be bought there. I don't know exact with the exact calculation or if you've done it. I—I think, um, it's it—it's—it's a lot of—
>> It doesn't even matter because like it's all with every unlock you're creating new taxable events for people dumping.
>> Like it's up today.
>> But you're stuffing it back into 401ks and IAS through the ETFs that follow the NASDAQ 100 or the S&P eventually when they do get a profit.
>> Forget SpaceX. Let's just take that as—as a hypothetical and broaden it. If I wanted to indulge in financial suppression, I would want to do it in a way that made it seem like you were selling dreams. This is basically a lottery. This is essentially lottery taken to an extreme level, right?
And so, there is a path where you make a bunch of people rich, um, you close the deficit, and the—the, you know what, is spread over a much wider unsuspecting audience, which is a classic definition of financial suppression. So, there's—there's things going on, you know, that—that are hard to explain. Gee, how could, like, for example, like SpaceX—SpaceX up 25 bucks, say, what's that, 300 trillion in market cap in a day?
Just goes to show you how wild the stock market is, right? Like that—that—that a, you know, that a company that does a couple of deca billion dollars in revenue is swinging in value of 300 billion based on, you know, what everyone agrees are unrealistic sci-fi type, you know, musings of—of a relatively odd man.
And so, what's going on? There's a deeper meaning, you know, that's our long-shot view. Sorry, that was—I jumped in there because that was—no, but that was—that was part of this whole thing that was driving me a little bit with the initial launch. Like, I'm not saying that Elon's not great and we're not getting cool stuff out of this. And man, the comments if you start to question it a little bit. They were really coming at me pretty hard for not understanding, but I was looking at SpaceX and in terms of from what I could find that the Starlink is actually profitable and bringing in about 11 plus billion per year, but the space side of it and the AI side of it are both losing money, and I think we're only like 18 point something billion there in total.
So, I'm—I'm like, it's great, but going back to even the initial question that we kicked off the conversation with, it seems like it feels very—this is terrible—it feels very ICO. It feels very like NFTTS in a way that like we have this grand vision for where this is going and we're basing the valuation on that, but it's—it's pure hyponar. Like there actually isn't the, what you say, the product's not to market yet.
>> In my—in our mental model, you—that none of that matters. All that matters is people have to believe it.
And so, like, you know, save all the comments. Not that anyone's going to get this deep into the podcast if they're looking to rag on you in the comments. Um, but like all you need is—is literally enough people to believe, right? Because you—the point of the exercise, the purpose of a system, what is what it does, is it creates an enormous amount of tax receipts with very little friction. Who's complaining?
>> Right? And that's a good point. I mean, if even if you get to Goldman has almost a half a trillion dollar, um, estimated, uh, revenue by 2030, I think, and so—
>> I mean, 25 times growth between now and then, or whatever it is, and, you know, I mean, so, um—
>> Lead underwriter, we should say.
>> Let—let's just pretend that they—that they hit on all cylinders and they—and they—and they hit that. That you still need to believe. I think it's like eight times revenue for it to—for you to get a double from here. You still need that between. So, you've got it like this is priced to utter perfection, right?
Um, and then now you—when you say that, though, Doomberg, it, you know, brings up the thought again. Now you—you have another little thought process, and, and, uh, you—you look at Poly Market and Koshi, and you think about, well, there's so much money in betting now.
>> Um, people spend—they spend more money on betting than they have in on music, movies, and books this year, which is just insane. And you think about that, but every single time one of those bets is settled, that's a taxable event.
>> And you have to put your—you have to put your ID on there. You have to be you—there's a—it's a KYC on those—on those, uh, apps. Uh, I know because I got onto Poly Market, and I can't even—I can't even—not that I bet in the—in the poly markets. I got enough going on, but just to see how they work. I know that you can't bet here in Nevada and on sports or politics because they're that you're—you're blocked out from the casino, um, whatever, how—however they politicked that.
Um, so, but you have a settlement on every single one of these trades. If you bought the Knicks and you won, that's settled. That's a taxable event.
And so, it's not like these where you buy SpaceX, you sit on it for five years. Yeah, you've got a taxable gain, but there's no way to sit on a taxable event there. A non—there's no way to sit on a taxable event unless you've got a very long contract that you're betting in. So, it's—
>> Yeah, there's no parlays, you know, no long-term parlays.
>> That's right. There's no long-term parlay. No.
>> So, this is now—now you're—now you're starting to think like Doomberg, James. So, if you have a—
>> If you have a giant hole—
>> And you need to plug it.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. And you don't want to raise taxes on people, you just—you do things like this. You make, you know, um, nihilism is a great way to—to have people part with—with their money.
Um, so, in that world, you know, I—I want to own things like Bitcoin and gold. Yeah, it's financial repression. And it—it—it, either way, you—even if you—you do wear the tinfoil hat and you believe that, which is, it's not really that far of a putt, but let's just say that you believe that there are ways that—that we're creating large taxable gains that—that really, what do—what do these—what do they do? Well, they—they end up exacerbating the K-shaped economy. They end up exacerbating that separation of wealth. It's just—it's just what it is.
And so, all paths again do lead to some sort of debasement, imprinting, and/or that financial repression and—and—and exacerbation of separation of wealth.
>> She just said something I want to emphasize because this is actually sometimes why we're often or sometimes misunderstood when we use the word "mental model," um, and we exercise in lateral thinking. The most important skill of lateral thinking is not concerning yourself as to whether or not the axiom is correct or not, just whether it works.
So, axiom is that Ponzi suppression—not, and again, I'm not calling SpaceX a Ponzi. I'm using that phrase more generally: "Create something, give it far more value than it's worth, and then have people speculate on it and collect the taxes." That's what we mean by that—by that label.
Um, it doesn't actually have to be true as long as he continues to predict. So, in that mental model where the—where all bets are off, you can gamble, you can do things, you can speculate, you could make exaggerated claims as—as a CEO about what you're going to do, you're not going to face the consequences, the SEC is going to be defanked. All those things are consistent with the need to generate nihilistic-type capital gains to tax.
Um, and so, whether or not we're right is irrelevant. Is—is—is the model currently operative? Like, and—and in our view, we'll see how Open AAI does, we'll see how Enthropic does. One counter to that, for example, was S&P not including SpaceX in, uh, shortly after the IPO. That was—that ran counter to our mental model.
Um, and so, okay, that's—that's a cut against it. If we get a few more cut against it, we just discard it. Um, and so, thinking in that way is what leads us to make the occasional long-shot predict. But it also means we're not afraid to be wrong, and we just move on when we are.
>> I want to just double-tap on that for a second, too, because that really hit me. This idea of lottery and like how profitable lotteryies are for state tax revenue. I just looked it up quickly here. The U.S., um, state lotteryies bring in 30 billion in tax revenue. Move. You need more tax receipts coming in. It's a very nefarious and, you're right, kind of nihilistic, and I don't know, there's something very dark about we're going to get people to gamble and speculate their money back into the—the U.S. coffers there to pull it in in tax receipts.
James, I want to quickly touch on, and I do want to make sure we get to energy and Doomberg outlook on energy markets as well. But I want to quickly touch on the K-shaped economy since the last time we spoke. Is it still kind of going ahead full steam, or are we seeing any further breakdown on either of those K-shaped legs?
>> No, I think it's going full steam that, uh, what you're seeing is the—the continued, uh, the—the—the lower demographic is taking on more and more credit card debt in particular, and they are now defaulting at a rate that's—that's rivaling the—the—the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
And so, the lower demographic is struggling. And I—I—I know it because I can see it from some friends and friends of friends who are just—they're—they're—they're just wage earners, just trying to get by, and it's been a difficult period for them to keep up with the inflation.
Why is that? It's not just that their wages, uh, the—the—the wages supposedly are keeping up according to economists, but they lag so severely, number one, and number two, they're—they're keeping up with maybe CPI measures that are faulty.
And in real life, you—you—you can't buy insurance at the rate that we talked about this last time. Car insurance, health insurance, yeah, any—any house insurance, you can't buy that insurance at a rate that accord—according to CPI. Though just those are big things: daycare, um, costs so you can have a—a dual-income family.
They—the—so, anyways, but we're seeing that the—the New York Fed just put out their—their latest quarter. Remember, this is severely lagging, too. These—these numbers are so lagging. Uh, you can see that the econom—that the—the—the consumer is not doing great on average if you just slice it down the middle.
On the face of it, you go to restaurants, they're full. You—you go to—you—you go to try to n—buy a Knicks ticket, they were what—how much were they, in the $10,000 for a ticket to go to a basketball game? Like something insane. So, um, but by and large, when you go to these restaurants, you're not seeing young kids in there. You're not seeing kids with f, you know, young families in there. You're seeing boomers. You're seeing older people. You're seeing people who have assets they're drawing from, who have made out in this economy.
I'm not blaming these people that benefited from this system that they bought into. Gen X. I think Doomberg, you're Gen X, too. We were sold this system that says, "You go find a company, work for the company, work for them for 20, 30, 40, 50 years. You're going to have a—a pension, a 401k, you'll leave and you'll retire. You'll have a great life at 65 and on. You'll be taken care of."
Well, that completely collapsed in our generation. And unfortunately, some of us made out okay on the way along, but millennials got utterly destroyed in this whole machine. They got ground in and said, "You—you go to college, you take out the debt, you get a job, you stay with the company, you make sure you're loyal, and they'll take care of you."
And lo and behold, pensions got scrapped. 401ks are there. Some of them, a lot of them are off the table. And so, you're standing there, and you have to switch jobs four, five, six times just to keep up. And now your wife is working, you've got daycare. So, the—the—that's a long way of saying that. No, I don't. I—I think that the—the lower demographic is—is struggling more today than the last time we talked.
>> So, let's take SpaceX. I—I saw numbers. Who knows what the numbers are? 10,000 paper millionaires. Let's pick the number, right? Early employees.
Look, I saw in the private world offerings for SpaceX maybe a half a dozen times in my career. Um, in—in our private life, you know, um, "Hey, I'm a friend of Elon, and I've got this SPD, and I'm going to do a 2 and 20, and, you know, uh, I'm gonna get you into SpaceX at, you know, 30 bucks a share. Now it's at, you know, 190 today," whatever.
Um, there's a whole pyramid, pun intended, of, uh, of very well-off, um, well, by definition, to have participated in SpaceX prior to the IPO and to have not been an employee required you to be a, um, sophisticated investor. What's the phrase? Um—
>> Yeah, an—an accredited investor.
>> Accredited investor. And so,
>> And have—and have—and have the contacts to get to—
>> Sure. And so, like, you've created—you've taken all of these accredited investors who are, by definition, worth more than a million dollars and on the right side of the K that James was talking about, and now there's 10,000 of them that just collected seven-figure checks, some of them eight and some of them nine-figure checks, and they're paying taxes on that.
You know, back to the point, um, earlier. So, that is the people getting in now, like James said, right? If you're buying it now at 2.2 trillion valuation or whatever it is today, I mean, maybe it—maybe it does get to 4 trillion, but the big, huge money, the, you know, multiple, multiple 10xers, 30x, 40x, 100x—
>> They're made. Yeah,
>> They're—that's made, and that it's not made by Joe Sixpack. I mean, I'm sorry, I'm only laughing because it's so cynical to pretend otherwise.
>> That's right. And that's so that just exacerbates it, too, right? And so, but and here's—and here's the—here's the report from the Fed right here. You can see it that these delinquencies on student loans, of course, nobody's paying their student loan. They're just—they're delinquent on those. And then here's your credit cards. And there's a 90-day delinquenty on credit cards.
Who's on credit cards? Like, Dubber, you—you use a credit card because you want points, you pay it off every month like I do, you know?
>> You spying on me or something?
>> So, you know, I mean, that's what—that's what you do. You get the points, but you pay it off. These are not being paid off. And then,
>> James, I—I have a confession.
>> Yeah, please.
>> I'm—I'm a points millionaire.
>> Yeah. See, I'm a—I think I'm a points billionaire. No, I'm just joking. So, which is, the points are worth nothing now. They just keep—and so, and you can see the amount of debt that's just up and to the right here. So, um, it's—uh—it's a problem, and it's not getting better. And that's an interesting, uh, take on that, though. But like you said, and that's the Cantalon effect that we talked about, is that the Cantalon effect is if you're the—the—he who is closest to the money spigot is the one who makes out the best.
And how do you get close to the money spigot? Well, you can—you can become a congressman. Um, you can—or a senator. Uh, you can be close to Fed officials. You could be—you could know people and be very close to banks. Who are those people? Hedge funds, investors, large investors, high-net-worth investors.
And who do they—how do—how are they close to the money spigot? Well, it's kind of like what Doomberg just said is that you get the call on SpaceX on day one that, "Hey, we're going to raise a—a—a first round, a seed round, a friends and family round, and you're going to be included on this." And lo and behold, a year, two years, three years, four years later, your million dollars becomes 500 million. And it's like, "Well, well done."
So, but who can do that? You have to be an accredited investor, and you have to know people. You have to be close to those, uh, those sources. And that's—that's—that's the essence of a Cantalon effect right there.
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>> Doomberg, do you think the same thing is going to play out with Anthropic in, um, Open AI? Is that like if just like 50% plus one which way those—those IPOs go? Is that where you're leing?
>> I mean, Anthropic is a weird one because they tangled with the DOW, or Department of War, whatever. And—
>> Open Eye and Elon have this feud. So, maybe Elon's—I saw some, you know, speculation that Elon is—is beating those guys to market and then, um—
>> You know, going to make—you pull up the—pull up the moat and—and make life difficult for them. But, I mean, broadly speaking, as—as this sort of repression mental model that I described earlier, you'd need more than just SpaceX. SpaceX is just the—the exception that proves the rule that it's possible. Oh, it makes sense for the Department of War and for the Do, you know, the DoD, the Department of War, to declare, uh, investments in—in these companies as a matter of national security. It would make sense.
>> Yeah.
>> So,
>> So, we'll see. But, yeah, it's—it's—I know it's—we always cover so much territory here.
>> We pack a lot into it. And, you know, just changing gears and making sure we get that one other little aspect in here. During, I want to get your outlook in terms of oil. I mean, like the last time we talked, we really hinted, we discussed how like everybody would have called for higher W2I prices, but it never—it never happened. Now we're on the other side. We're seeing it come down. I saw it drop below 80 for a second there. Instincts would be that we would continue to see oil kind of fall, but I'm—I'm very cautious to make any sort of calls on energy right now. So, I'm curious what your thinking is.
>> Oil's going way lower from here, assuming that, you know, the war doesn't break out again and the—and the assets in the Middle East aren't destroyed. And—and the really profound thing—bunch of profound stuff. So, we're publishing this piece tomorrow. I'm not sure when this podcast will publish, but, um, all right. So, you know, as this comes out, we'll have already published a piece in the morning called, um, "flex capacitor."
And, uh, China just flexed somewhere between three and four million barrels per day of, uh, oil tolerance in a way that the market had no idea existed. What am I—what do I mean by that?
It has so overbuilt cold to chemicals, LG import terminals, refining the petrochemical space that I could—it could just decide it was going to stop buying 3 million barrels a day of oil for a 100 days and not flinch.
And if China has indeed imparted upon the crude oil market 3 million barrels a day of fungeability, the arbitrage in the oil space is—is going to close much lower. What do I mean by that?
Absent crude oil, if you just look across the rest of the hydrocarbon complex, natural gas is trading for $18 a barrel oil equivalent in the U.S. in effectively infinite supply. Natural gas liquids are trading for $30, $40 a barrel.
Um, there's an awful lot of, uh, oil and gas in the world. We know where to find it. Um, you have Guyana, Vakam Merta, Venezuela. We're doing a big doom zoom on Vakam Argentina here probably next week.
Um, if you can't get to 125, 150, 200 with this fact set, what do you need to get there? And if everyone knows it's never going there, why do you need to own it?
And so, you know, there's this whole argument online, which is the opening story to our piece, and kudos to our friend, um, Jack Johnson over at Market Vibes. Um, the argument was, you know, "price as truth" versus "price manipulated." Those were the two camps.
And boy, we—we—we—we—we were wildly surprised at the relative dosility of oil after the war broke out, but we took the pause and said, "The market is telling us something different. We're wrong. Let's go find out why." And—and price is truth, and we do believe price was truth, and price has been vindicated.
So, the big story that came out over the weekend was or Reuters report, a bombshell underreported on Friday, that the real bogey wasn't 15 million barrels a day by the closure of the street. It was more like five or six.
And if it was more like five or six because the oil market knows how to cheat, and China turned its nose at four and didn't flinch, all of a sudden the fact that the strategic petroleum reserves and the other IAE actions, um, closed the loop and oil stayed at 90 bucks a barrel makes a lot of sense in hindsight.
And all the people trapped in oil now thinking it was going to 150 because of all of this hyperbole on Twitter that we've all seen. Boy, I mean, I've—I've been around when oil traded minus30, and, you know, when oil was trading at minus30, you would never have convinced someone it would trade over 100 again.
>> Well, we saw that, you know, once the—the straight opens, if this is truly peace, and all this is predicated on, you know, a full-blown war doesn't rekindle and, you know, those assets aren't destroyed, you're—you're going to see look out below, um, on oil.
And—and China has really, without anyone kind of noticing, has done what we've been predicting would eventually get done in the economy, which is a massive wave of engine switching that closes the hydrocarbon arbitrage. And those engines need not be in cars, but they can also be in factories. And, you know, if China can swing 3 to 4 million barrels a day. They just done it. They just proved it. And boy, that's pretty consequential.
So, that's what's coming out tomorrow. I'm sure we're going to make a lot of friends in the, um, "best at manipulated oil price down" crowd, but we have to call it as we see it. So,
>> Nope. Fair enough. James, I want to get your thoughts just on energy markets there. And then also, before we reconvene next time, what should people be on the look at? What should people be paying attention to in the weeks going forward?
>> Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, I look, I—I can't, uh, dispute what—what, uh, Doomberg's take is on—on oil. Um, he's much, much deeper in the analysis and geopolitical analysis on that. So, I can't really add anything intelligent to what he said. So, um, but yeah, what are we looking at?
I mean, really, the—like we said, the—the most important thing this week, right on the—on the docket, is the, um, is the next Fed meeting and Kevin Wars is, uh, his temperature, which is the whole world is—the whole world is looking at this, and they're trying to figure out which direction is he going to go, um, and, uh, so that is a really big, important moment in time.
Uh, also the Bank of Japan, uh, they meet on what, the 15th and 16th? Is that right, Doomberg? And, uh,
>> So, we got to see where the—where—where they're willing to—to allow these rates to go. Uh, and—
>> Where they're allowing the yen to go. That's—that's another important data point. It's important because Japan for so long has been the—the spigot of—of basically free money for risk assets around the world. And so, that—that regime has changed, and—and it's changing kind of rapidly. So, it's been interesting to watch.
Um, we also have, I think, we have a—a 20-year auction, which I don't really—I don't really care about the 20-year that much. It's—it's kind of non-inconsequential in total, but it is a—it is a momentary stress test to see where—where things are—are shaking out.
Um, that—I don't know. I think they should honestly just retire the 20 years. It's a—it's a nonsense bond, but, um, it is for this moment. It'll be important to—to kind of see.
So, and—and finally, just where's SpaceX? Where's—where does that end up trading here in the near term? And just how—how wildly optimistic are people going to get, and—and—and unrealistic, maybe, because as we're talking here, it's now trading at $185, up 15%.
Which is just, I mean, it's mind-numbing, to say the least. It's—it—I look, no investment advice coming from me on this one. Like Doomberg said, basically, the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay liquid, is—is the saying. And—and this is one of those. I wouldn't short it. I'd be very careful with it.
So, but it's trading just at $2.4 trillion market cap. It is now the, um, sixth largest company in the world. So, pretty wild.
>> Lot—lot of capital gains tax just waiting to be harvested there. James, you.
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