Transcription
Welcome back. We are joined today by Professor Jang who uses historical patterns and game theory to predict the direction of geopolitics. And uh professor Jang is famous for many things among some predicting the return of Trump and also uh the war against Iran now a second war that is. U so thank you for coming back on the program.
>> Thanks Glen. Um how how do you make sense of this war though uh against Iran? I mean how how do you measure how this war is developing in terms of uh where the successes or failures are >> right?
Um so first of all Trump has failed to articulate a purpose and a strategy for this war. Um at first it was about nuclear enra uh uranium enrichment in Iran uh and the fear that Iran would develop a nuclear weapon. In fact uh in Trump's state of the of the union address um he said that he would never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and uh both chambers of congress that both the Democrats and Republicans rose to cheer and applaud. It was really the first time that Congress demonstrated any unity during that speech. It was a extremely uh political uh speech.
Um but the problem with that is that um the Omani foreign minister a few hours before the Americans and Israeli struck tan told um us that the Iranians had already agreed to zero uranian enrichment even for civilian purposes. Um so the idea that um Trump needs to prevent a nuclear weapon um that doesn't hold. Is this a pretext? And they tried different many different excuses. And then finally, Rubio said this. Rubio basically said, look, we had to attack because Israel was going to attack first. And then the Iranians would retaliate against both the Israelis and us. So to defend ourselves, we had to preempt Israel and attack first. Okay. So they're struggling for a narrative. They're struggling to explain to the American people um why this is happening. They're also struggling to contain a fallout because um after the Americans and Israeli struck Iranians, the Iranians start to bombard US bases in uh the GCC and they close off the humus and this is doing tremendous damage to the global economy. So oil right now it's um approaching $120 a barrel, $110 a barrel, I'm not quite sure. Okay, but this is double from a week ago. And remember that the servus delivers most of this oil to the Asian economies of Pakistan, India, uh China, South Korea and Japan. Japan relies on 75% of its oil from the sort of hummus. So in about 7 8 months, Prime Minister Takayachi has informed her cabinet that uh Japan will be out of oil. Um and Japan is you know a a a manufacturing powerhouse. So um this war has been a disaster and even today Trump has failed to articulate why the Americans are doing this, what the purpose is and what the um offramp is. And what we're seeing day by day is pretty rapid escalation. In fact, I think sec the second day or the third day into this war, there were rumors of ground troops. Uh yesterday, there's rumors that the 82nd Airborne Division uh of of the American army was uh given deployment orders, meaning that meaning it is possible Americans will choose to airrop uh the soldiers into the middle of Iran. For what purpose? We don't know. There's talk of the Americans seizing Car Island, which is the oil depart of of Iran, uh, and which accounts for 90% of Iranian uh, oil exports. Um, there's talk of the Americans uh, funding proxies. Um, there's talk of using tactical nuclear weapons. There's talk of a national draft to find 500,000 soldiers for ground invasion of Iran. So, this war is completely out of control. And it is complete unclear what the Americans hope to accomplish with this war.
>> Yeah, the narrative I think was very poorly planned, even worse than the war has been planned because it began as you said with nuclear weapons, then moved over to ballistic missiles. Then as apparently they wanted to help protesters, then it was about the oil that they should be taken out of the hands of Iranians. Then Trump mentioned Iran might take over the Middle East unless um you know so we had to go in and as you said the Israel thing was interesting because if the argument is that Israel will attack Iran then Iran will retaliate against Israel against Israel and the United States. So they had to go in first then they're essentially admitting that they're fighting Israel's war but they can't say that either. So, so the you the ability to find that narrative is uh was kind of poor compared to other wars. Other usually have one narrative all the media they they organize around it and everyone obediently repeats the same talking points. It's hasn't been done well. But this is a war of attrition though uh to a large extent that is both sides seeking well both there's many all all sides seeking to exhaust each other but this is in terms of weapons ammunition um but it's also spilling into energy and yeah water if you will or just general economics how how do you see who would exhaust whom first
>> right so I think Iran is trying to fight a war of attrition where it is putting pressure um on the global economy on the GCC nations because Iran believes that uh the GCC nations especially Saudi Arabia uh Qatar and UAE can apply pressure on Trump to end this war as quickly as possible um by closing off the Humus uh Iran is trying to pressure the Southeast Asian economies of China, Japan and South Korea to press apply pressure on Trump to end this war as soon as possible. So the Iranians are fighting a war of attrition. Unfortunately, the Americans are fighting a war of destruction. So even though they haven't said the purpose, it is clear from what is happening on the ground that the Americans and the Israelis are intent aren't complete and utter destruction of the government's government's capacity to deliver basic services to its people. What I mean by that is that uh they yesterday struck a dissalination plant in Iran. Um it and you know so you're denying fresh water to the civilian population. That is a war crime. Um then the Americans struck uh oil facilities in Tran. Uh these are these are civilian oil facilities so that uh citizens in Tran can drive their cars. And if you look at footage from Tran, it is the apocalypse. It there's acid rain. uh the entire uh the entire sky is black and these people have to grieve that ear. So they're they will develop cancer, they'll have birth defects, uh it's almost like chemical warfare. Um so if you are just saying this a war of attrition, um that makes no sense. A war of attrition means when you embargo Iran economically, why are you targeting civilians? You know, in the first of the war, a tomahawk tomahawk missile hit a school in southern Iran and killed about 170 school girls. These are this is an elementary school. 170 school girls were killed in that. Um and and um this war, the way it's being constructed, the way it's being fought, seems to me that the Americans are first and foremost focused on the destruction of Iran as opposed to uh regime change.
>> Yeah. Well, I guess that's a good description that Iran is fighting a war of attrition. So Taioon be on their side while the US is well seeking to destroy the country uh with its yeah 90 million people inside. So uh this is quite problematic but the Iranians of course is limited what they can do to to the United States. they can of course hit their bases and um but uh but it seems that Iran is obviously prioritizing uh going after the Gulf States because that's a good way of uh creating some pain for the USled alliance. How vulnerable do you see them being here though?
Yeah. So, the Gulf States are the great vulnerability of the American Empire because Israel um it has an esquetology. Uh unfortunately, religiously zealots have taken over the state of Israel. So, they're perfectly okay to die for what they believe in. And um they can live in bomb shelters for years and years. That's how strong their faith is. Um and Israel was designed as an extremely resilient, extremely creative society. So, uh, Israel will emerge from this war intact and probably even stronger. The but the Gulf States are different. The Gulf States are basically mirages. Um, these 50 years ago, these were just deserts, right? They um and for most of human history, the the Arabian Peninsula was not that inhabited because it didn't have access to fresh water. it didn't have much agricultural um output and so it cannot sustain um um a large population and most were desert nomads engaged in trade. But Pax Americana uh changed all that because Pax Americana could could needed oil to fund its empire and it could offer protection to the Gulf States. So they um they develop really rapidly. So cities where maybe tens of thousands of people before now are in the millions. And one striking example is Dubai. Uh you know you go to Dubai, it's just skyscraper after skyscraper. It is a very glitzy city and it it's trying to be the financial capital of um the Middle East and there are thousands of extremely wealthy individuals who've transferred their savings to Dubai because they believe that uh it's safe, it's comfortable, lots of good Michelin restaurants, lots of good five-star hotels and are not taxed. Um but this image of Dubai as a financial hub is now shattered by this war and they'll never recover from this. In fact uh we're already hearing rumors of ver of of millionaires just fleeing with with their wealth. Now they're going to Singapore. Now they're going to um uh Southeast Asia. A bigger problem is this. A bigger problem is that because the S of Hum is closed, their oil economies have collapsed. they can no longer sell the oil and they shut down their their oil production facilities. What people don't recognize is that uh the sham moose takes GCC oil to to Asia but then it brings back food. The GCC um imports 80 80 to 90% of its food supply. So Dubai was the rumor is Dubai will run out of food in about a week's time. Then there's the issue of fresh water where the greatest vulnerability is actually desalination plants. So the GCC nations um desalination plants provide about 6% of all their water needs and so if these dissalination plants are destroyed then they run out of water in one or two weeks and this means the entire destruction of the uh GCC now now I mean destruation plants will be the nuclear option for Iran and so I don't think they would use it very lightly um but Um there's really no coming back from what's happening. I mean for the longest time the GCC had a reputation for being safe uh for being extremely wealthy and now that mirage that illusion has been shattered and once the illusion is shattered you can't ever uh resurrect it again.
No, I very much agree. Well, the Gulf States not just um are not just dependent on energy but the finance the real estate market which is propped up by all the experts. But what you're also describing though is um that is the this small monarchies selling the oils in in dollar and the US in return offering protection. This was also the petro dollar system that uh replaced Breton Woods once they closed the gold window. So how what do you see being the possible consequences for the global economy?
>> Right. So what Iran wants to do is basically kick the US out of the Middle East for a lot of reasons and the main advantage is that once the US leaves Iran will be able to control the ship of Humus. Therefore, it will control trade access for the entire world and that um and and so the Gulf states will bas basically become client states of the Iranians rather than Americans and that oil money now will be able to finance uh the rebuilding of Iran. So, so that's the um end goal or the endgame for the Iranians. The problem with empire is the hubris. And so another way of saying this is the empire would rather destroy the world than surrender its power. Right? So the idea that the Americans will just leave the Middle East peacefully is this wishful thinking. Everyone's saying that you know this war can only lead to the defeat of America. So America should just admit defeat right now and then go home and let Israel and Iran settle whatever problems that they have. like like the Middle East is not America's problem. But again, the problem is that America is addicted to the petro dollar. Leaving the Middle East would destroy the petro dollar. And if the petro dollar is destroyed, it would collapse the American economy as well. So America has $40 trillion in debt. Uh and this debt is a is a Ponzi scheme. Like the American economy is um is sustained by a Ponzi scheme. And so the Gulf States, what they do is they sell the oil, get petro dollars, and then they recycle it back into the American economy mainly by investing into AI uh into data centers, which is now um uh the main engine of growth for the American economy. So the Gulf States were to stop investing in America. The AI financial bubble would burst and with it the entire American economy. America would suffer a much greater depression than the 1930s. That's how dire the situation is for America right now.
But the United States though they must have known that this would be a disaster. I mean they many of the top military people in the United States warned in advance that uh they they would have limited weapons. they would have a limited ability to go on for too long, which of course could explain why they instead going for burning down Iran if if they can't if time is essentially on Iran's side. But uh but there's been war games in the past where they show that they they couldn't pull this off. I mean, you had god knows how many American presidents who wanted to attack Iran. But they always knew that yeah, that's not a good idea. So how how do you make sense of this? cuz that was my one when when they were building up to this war, sending more and more um military hardware to the region. My main reason for thinking this might not happen was it would simply be too crazy. The the likelihood of success, the amount of things that could go wrong. I mean, it just indicated that this they can't possibly go down this path. So So why I guess why why did they they do have informed people in the United States? I you know, we know. So, how do you make sense of this?
>> Right. So, again, you I agree with you in that this war doesn't make any sense. It's not rational and everyone everyone knows that America is going to lose this war. The problem is that when empires are in decline, this is just the way they behave. And um there's just the historical record, it's pretty overwhelming in that when empires u decline, they lash out against the world. They start these stupid wars. They can't possibly win. They overextend themselves and the collapse is terrible for the world. And America very much is an empire in decline. Look at things such as the collapse of the family. Look at things uh such as the um collapse of the currency. Currency debasement in in America is just a tremendous problem. The US dollar is no longer worth as much as it was like uh like 10 years ago. The political polarization America um Congress just cannot function properly. The president has so much power nowadays because congress has basically decided to just not do anything to avoid any political responsibility and so it's destroying the checks and balance systems of the US constitution. The economic depression in America is great. Young people feel as though there's absolutely no hope in the world. They're refusing to have uh families. They're refusing to invest in the future. They gamble all the time. And so America is really the end of empire at this point. And so what they do is they go and start wars in order to distract people's people people's attentions in order to prove to the world that they still have it uh to, you know, they're still the bully in a playground and they can still beat up every other kid even though they're old and they're and they're weak and they're handicapped. Um and so you know we're talking about Iran, but like look at what was happening before Iran, right? Trump um kidnapped the president of of uh Venezuela uh which went which went against international law. Trump uh deployed his navy in the Caribbean and started to bomb drug boats uh which is again against international law. Trump was threatening to annex Greenland. He was threatening to invade Canada. He was threatening to attack Mexico. Right now he's embargoing Cuba. And people people don't even recognize this is happening because there's so much going on in the world. But Cuba was dependent on Venezuela oil. That was its energy supply. And now that Venezuela uh has fallen to the Americans, um the Americans have embargoled Cuba. And so now people don't have access to electricity and they're actually people are starving in Cuba. So this is an empire in decline. It just lashes out against the world. It attacks everyone. and Iran is just the um most current iteration of this anger and this hubris. But this hubris made the Americans underestimate the capacity of Iran. They went in thinking that once they decapitate the regime, then the government would fall. And what they what the Americans didn't recognize was the resilience and resolve of the uh Iranian people.
Well, about this imperial decline, it it reminds me of something that Emanuel Todd, the the French scholar, argued because uh well, again, he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union already in the '7s by looking at these different social variables, but he also predicted the US empire was heading towards uh well, a similar fate already in the in the early 2000s. and he described essentially what you did this strange he called it micro militarism this uh this yeah brutal use of military force in an effort to show power when it's obviously draining so it it is an interesting development but you you mentioned that the Americans are losing as if it's a given how how do you why do you assess this is this the mainly the focus on on the military hardware at their disposal or is Is it the lack of a clear objective? Um or I guess regime change will be very hard without the ground troops,
>> right? Um so America right now has several disadvantages. Um the first major disadvantage is the lack of political will and that just means the lack of a of a strategy, the lack of a purpose. It cannot unify the American people um in order to make the sacrifice necessary to win this war. In fact, most Americans are against this war. Right before the war started, uh 70 70 to 80% Americans voice their disapproval of a possible war with Iran. Usually when a war starts, uh people rally behind the flag, but not in this case. Most Americans are still against the war. So the first issue is the lack of political will. But if you look at the Iranians, they believe that this is a struggle over of life and death. So they set aside the political differences and they've committed to winning this war. Okay. So that's the first um factor political will. The second factor is this manufacturing capacity. So these past um 30 40 years America went from a manufacturingbased economy to a financialbased economy and they export their manufacturing capacity to China. Now when you fight a war, what really matters is your capacity to produce ammunition to replenish your um your munitions logistics and America doesn't have manufacturing capacity to fight a long war. In fact what's happening already is that America is cannibalizing munitions from other parts of the world. So South So um they are now uh transferring um munitions from South Korea over to uh the Middle East which is stupid to do because now you've you've basically um opened more flanks open more vulnerabilities throughout the world. So manufacturing capacity is a very important factor. On the other hand, Iran uses drones and ballistic missiles. And we know that uh Iran is able to manufacture about 500 drones a day. And quite honestly, you you only need to like have 10 drones hit their targets in the Middle East uh every single day in order for the GCC to cry uncle, right? So manufacturing capacity is a very important factor as well. And um the third um factor is that America is hamstring by a lot of political considerations. So because they lack political will, they do not want to take too many casualties. Right? So Trump has said that six Americans have died in this war so far. There's absolutely no way this is true. We are we are having hearing rumors that there are a lot of casualties being flown to Germany to try to disguise a fact that the middle in the Middle East u many Americans are are are dying. But this tells us that America has actually no appetite uh to sustain any casualties. If you refuse to have any casualties, how are you going to fight a war? Right? On the other hand, the Iranians um are very esqueological. They are very religious. They are Shia Muslim and they're not afraid to die. In fact they believe it is the highest honor to marty yourself for the higher good and u and the clear example of this is the Ayatollah Kamayat who was killed in the first day of strikes and you know he could have gone to Moscow and he could have hid his bunker but instead he chose to go go to his office and carry on with his life because he's 86 years old and he does not want to die afraid of Americans and so he set the example that is galvanizing ing the Iranian people. Just look at some social media footage from Iran. The Iranian people are now extremely uh energetic, extremely galvanized and they will fight this war to the bitter end.
>> Yeah. Know I was in Tran last year and I was also a bit um well that's one thing that really stood out the the culture of martyrdom. the way they would put the martyrs pictures on the walls at many places. The it this is um you know an important variable beyond the material variables if you want to assess how a country would actually fight and the whole idea of you know killing Kamini and now everything will fall into place. I mean his son has taken over now and it has to be pointed out that the Americans killed his father, his mother, they killed his wife, they killed his sister and they killed his son. I mean the idea as Trump said well we we will pick the next guy and you know he will have to be acceptable to us. He has to be more favorable to America and accommodating and more moderate. It it doesn't make any sense how how can you you know burn down the country and again just if you look at a new leader slaughter his whole family and then assume that they will just fall in line. If you look at the culture in Iran again the martyrdom culture which is strong you know you can say among Shiites in general this was always crazy but for somehow this seem to have been the assumption. Um, but how do you see though the possibility of this war spreading? Because they of course they're attacking US bases which you know covers a lot of country. So you have US proxies being used such as Kurds which could then trigger a civil war in a country of 90 million people. There's now um I mean the American and British media especially they're up in arms that Russia is giving intelligence to Iran to try to you know make Trump push harder against Russia in Ukraine. Even though this, you know, yeah, also a dangerous path. I'm not sure if what to what extent China would get get involved. I mean, do you see a pathway here from it being coming a proper regional war or or a world war? How do you see this?
>> Well, first of all, I don't think there's an off ramp for this war. I think it's very hard to de deescalate. The idea that the Americans will just give up their petro dollar and the American bases and just go home is just absurd. That is not how empires behave. Also, Israel because it wants to achieve the greater Israel project is heavily invested in creating a regional conflration to create as much havoc as possible so that that they could destroy the region and then be the only one left standing. Okay. And so what Israel wants to do is drag everyone into the war including Turkey, including Saudi Arabia, including um like basically the entire Middle East. And so um during the first couple of days, there was reporting that an Iranian drone had struck a Saudi Aramico oil facility. And so Aramco closed down all it energy production. But then later reporting came out to reveal that actually the drone came from Lebanon. So it didn't come from the east east, it came from the west which meant Israel. Toro Carlson on his TV show sorry on on his show said that he had received information from the Qataris that they they had arrested two MSAD agents and they suspected these MSAD agents of trying to sabotage um the Qatar or facilities in order to create a false flag. So the Israelis are heavily invested in trying to create as much conflict between the GCC and Iran as possible. And now there's talk of Turkey coming in as as well. Recently there was a drone attack from Iran against Azaran and Azar Bzan was very angry about this and even fought the possibility of sending in ground troops against Iran. But then it was later discovered that this was probably a false flag of of the Israelis. So the Israelis are in are heavily interested in spreading this war as far as possible and creating as much destruction as possible and they want this war to continue for as long as possible because they have nuclear weapons. So Iranians the Iranians are not going to hit them too hard. The Iranians are going to hit the GCC much harder. And so it's just for the Iranian for the Israelis they just have to endure, right? Right? It's a war of attrition and then once Saudi Arabia is destroyed, once a GCS is destroyed, then Israel will be the only power left standing. Okay? So that so that is Israel's intention. Other nations will eventually have to be drawn in as well. So one wild card is Pakistan. So during the 12-day war, Pakistan um supported Iran. But after that, a few months after that, Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense path with Pakistan. So if Saudi Arabia is attacked, Pakistan must come to its aid. And we know that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. So it is very likely that at some point Saudi Arabia will join this war on behalf of the Americans. Because the animosity between Saudi Arabia and Iran go way back. Iran is a theocracy. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and they see each other as her as as heretical, okay, as against um Islam. The Iranians hate Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia is the home of Mecca and Medina, the two holiest sites in the Islamic world. At the same time, they host a lot of American soldiers. These are infidels in the eyes of Iranians. And so, the Iranians are heavily interested in trying to topple the Saudi regime. and um they're going to apply pressure to cause uprisings throughout the the GGC. And I believe that at some point the Saudi government will decide to enter this war. And if they enter this war, then Pakistan is obligated to enter this war as well. If the Americans were to launch a ground invasion, it would make sense to attack from multiple vectors. And one vector would be from Pakistan. Another vector of course would be from Iraq. The last vector would be from Azar Bjan. They would also try to cease the situ as soon as possible in order to maintain global trade. So in the short term so in the short term we can expect the entire Middle East to be engulfed in this war at at some point. In the long term eventually the Southeast Asian economies will have to intervene. So South Korea and Japan are extremely reliant on oil from the strip of hummus. In fact, they would basically starve to death if it were not from this oil from the strip of Humus. But there's a wild card and that's North Korea. So, if you're in North Korea and you are analyzing the situation, you recognize that now is the perfect opportunity to threaten South Korea because Americans are distracted in the Middle East and the South Koreans don't have access to the oil they need to protect themselves against the North Koreans. So just threaten South Korea and then the Americans are forced to direct their attention back to Southeast Asia and Japan is forced to come into this conflict as as well. And the North Koreans aren't doing this to start to start a war. That would be suicidal. They're doing this to extort as much as possible from South Korea and Japan. And so I expect that to happen as well. the Western Hemisphere will not be quiet this time because while this is happening, Trump is still intent on toppling the Cuban government. Okay, so it's possible two weeks from now while this war is still raging, Trump attacks Cuba or Mexico or Colombia. It is complete insanity. But this is again unfortunately this is the way an empire behaves as it declines.
So yeah, what you're describing is more or less a suicide or death of empire at least. But um after this war is over, of course there's no going back to the way things were. So how do you see this the wider change to the Middle East as a region?
>> Well, I think the GCC is done for. Um I don't think it's possible to come back from what's happening. And after this war is done, I think that Israel emerges as a dominant power in um the Middle East. It achieves the greater Israel project and um the Iranians will not lose this war. They will maintain their sovereignty, but this war is going to destroy a lot of their infrastructure and they'll have to rebuild. Fortunately, they will be able to control the shoo and so they'll have um the financing necessary to rebuild their nation. And I think that um after this war the Iranians will actually come out much stronger than before. They will um be uh they will control the Hummus. They will have a more um vibrant coherent national identity and they will will have upgraded a lot of their military capacity. So um maybe after this war they're destroyed but they'll rebuild and they'll come out much stronger and this will lead to in the long term region re regional conflict between Iran and Israel and in esquetology in Islamic and in Jewish and in Christian esquetology this conflict between Iran and Israel and this is a long-term thing right but it is often referred to as the war of Gog and Mog when the entire world attacks Israel. Okay. So um but before that happens, Israel will achieve the greater Israel project and it would create something called PAX Judeica. So imagine that the center of gravity basically transfers from Washington DC to Jerusalem. Why? Because at this point in history Israel it controls all global trade. It's it's already built the Bengurian canal which cuts through Gaza and replaces the the Suez Canal. It is the techn technological and financial center of the Middle East because the GCC has been destroyed and so and so whatever oil money there is is put invested into Israel. you know um the Indian prime prime minister Modi visited Netanyahu before the war struck out before the war began and it was a very pleasant meeting and the reason why is that in order to build Paka Israel need to import millions and millions of cheap laborers and India is the best source of cheap laborers for for Israel. So I think that that is what they have in mind. you know a lot of technological companies in United States, Google, Nvidia, Oracle, they are they will probably move to Jerusalem and help build the technological center of the world, create an u a an AI surveillance state. So these past few decades they create this surveillance model in Gaza and then they'll just scale it out to include the entire Middle East. So that's what I see happening in the short in the short term. this war will be devastating. In the midterm, Israel will achieve the greater Israel project and create Pakida. And long term, Israel will face the world in in a global conflict.
But to what extent would Israel be in a position or to to project this kind of power? Because after this war, there would be a seemingly a very diminished US presence in at least ability to project power in the Middle East. Turkey is also growing more concerned about Israel. Indeed the Israelis also have a very tough rhetoric about Turkey and especially Erdogan. And with the war as well, the the amount of destruction that will be levied against the Israelis, the economic complications, the demographic problems as many settlers might be simply leaving. I mean, it's not a big country. What is this like 8 million people now? 78. How how would they be able to I guess sustain themselves in this region once all of these things begin to kick in.
>> Also political instability one could put add to the list I guess.
Yeah.
>> Yeah. So I think um let's talk political instability because Israel is notorious for political divisions, right? It's almost impossible to get people to agree on anything. Israelis argue all the time. But this war is going to have a traumatic traumatic effect on Israeli society. The democracy is going to have to give way to a theocracy. The religious zealots are going to gain greater control over Israeli society and what is whatever is left of an open cosmopolitan democratic society will wither away. Basically, Jerusalem will replace Tel Aviv as the heart and center of Israeli society. So, uh, that's point one. Point two is that people severely underestimate Israel because it is a small, nation in a desert with very few resources. But the real wealth of Israel is a Jewish diaspora spread all around the world. They are extremely well educated. their $10 is really savvy and they are um um and and um they are extremely united like like they believe in the greater greater Israel project. So it's possible for Israel to draw on basically unlimited financing on the most advanced technology on um on political support from all over the Jewish diaspora. And I think that once this war is over, Israel will have no pure competitor in the Middle East, meaning that Saudi Arabia Saudi Saudi Arabia will probably be destroyed and Turkey will be severely weakened in the process. I'll be honest with you, I have very little hope for Turkey. It has suffered a great deal under EderN. If you go back and looked at how Migrant came to power and how he cemented power, um, I believe it was in the 20 what year was it 2018? coup. And anyway, my my point is that Turkey is an extremely corrupt and oified society. That is a paper tiger. And if Turkey were to enter this war, you'd be surprised by how badly it it does. So, so Israel in other words doesn't have a regional competitor. Iran will be a competitor in the future, but that is in the future.
>> Yeah, No, I think um yeah know that the the coup attempt in 2016, I think this was very clear. Well, it's not the first time they have this every now and then that it the stability um might be quite fragile. But you you kind of covered very well the Middle East, how the US is impacted, how this could spread to East Asia, Israel could become a theocracy, Iran a even more confident regional power. How about Europe? Because we um you know are the Americans liberated us from the Nordstream pipeline by blowing it up? European leaders recently congratulated themselves for liberating themselves from Russian energy and gas and oil, sorry. And um now of course uh we're also been cut off from energy from the Middle East and all of this with the backdrop of the United States seeking to pivot away from Europe. So how how does this debacle in the Middle East with the war in Iran impact the Europeans?
Well, it's I mean like the Europe Europe is completely hopeless. It's a hopeless situation. Um you know for the past 20 years it's America scooed over Europe. So um these wars in the Middle East created millions of refugees who then went to Europe. And I don't know what the Europeans were thinking in allowing these millions of refugees to come into the society when they didn't have the capacity to absorb these millions of refugees. Right? So, Ed Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, famously said, "We can do it." No, you can't. and time has shown that these millions of refugees have put a tremendous strain on the social cohesion on the capacity of the state to govern Europe. So there's tremendous political fissures within Europe at this point and so that's why you see the rise of these right-wing parties throughout Europe. But the main problem as you point out is the economy. So Europe suffers from an aging population. So the population itself is not no longer as dynamic as it used to be. Before the model, the German model was very good. It was this, you know, buy cheap Russian energy, make really good German cars, subcontract the labor to Poland, and then sell extremely expensive German cars to China. It was a great model for Germany. But then when Trump came into office, the China market Germany lost lost access to the China market. And then when you have this war break out, Germany was no longer buy cheap Russian energy. And as you point out, the Europeans then pivoted to the Middle East, primarily Qatar. And now Qatar has basically shut down all LNG production. And so Europe is completely screwed in the process. Immacron has talked about sending an aircraft carrier to the Middle East. What's that going to do? I mean, send an aircraft carrier so that the Iranians can sink it with ballistic missile. I mean, what's the point of that? So and and still at this time, the Europeans are still talking about drafting young men to go die in the trenches of Ukraine in in 2029. So, the Europeans, the European elite have their head in the sand. They absolutely no idea what's going on. They have absolutely no solution to the multiple crises that they face. And the Europe is a dumpster fire. I hate to say this, but it's a dumpster fire.
Well, it's hard to disagree with with that assessment, but no, things are going from bad to worse. I think the the reason why Europe went from this immense optimism to now just crash you know you can say hubris and all this, which is all correct. I think it was the postcold world order though it became ideal for the Europeans that is the United States were you know declared a unipolar moment the the role of the Europeans in this world was well let's have a collective hedgeimonyy of the political west standing on these two legs of the US and the EU hoping that Europe would be an equal partner to the United States and not only would the political west dominate the world but it would be a force for good because Not only would it prevent great power rivalry but also by dominating the liberal democratic west would be able to and elevate the role of liberal democratic values, humanitarian ideals. So again it's um it's almost like a civilizing mission that dominance is a and sovereign inequality is a force for good in the world. The world will thank us for dominating. So this is the benign hedgeimon. It's very appealing if you're a politician and you say we dominate and the world will love us for it. So now that of course this is falling falling apart. I guess a bit of a mirage like the Gulf States were relying on it's there's no no clarity what to do and there's no political imagination because they they outsourced all strategic thinking to the US for the for 80 years and now the US is essentially well pulling out its knives for the Europeans. They they've done this as you said over the past 20 years but they did it did it more covertly now they're quite open about their contempt for Europe. So no no I think Europe is done but what does this mean for the wider world order because this idea of a you know the international distribution being focused around US global primacy legitimized then by liberal democratic values. This world order the postcold world order of liberal hedgemony is gone. so the US is not dominant anymore and liberal democratic values I mean no one really thinks this is what the western powers are that these are their objectives in foreign policy it's a thin ve which has been tossed away so what is the new world order then from your perspective what what will follow this u
>> right so there will be three major trends that follow from this okay the first major trend is de-industrialization because you now have access to cheap energy. So you need to make your economy much more balanced before we have the growth of urban centers which engage in the knowledge economy which engage in AI in EV in solar panels right but all that but all of that requires access to cheap energy which is what the Middle East provided but now that the Middle East is going to be destroyed or be engulfed in war for the next 10 20 years you have to de-industrialize you have to focus more on self-sufficiency. Okay, so that's the first trend, de-industrialization. Second major trend is mercantalism. Okay, and what I mean by that is that the global order is dead. And so what you need to do is basically focus on local trade or creating your own supply networks, spirits of influence. Okay. And the third major trend which is most troubling is remilitarization because Pax Americana is dead. and tax Judeica is not interested in protecting you from big bad bullies. Okay? So it's either you rearm as soon as possible and defend yourself or you will be or you'll be eaten alive by a wolf. Right? So I think in East Asia the the first nation to recognize the changing world order because has no choice in the matter is Japan. I think that they brought in partnersh because she appealed to the young and she has the charisma to galvanize the young to make make the sacrifices necessary in order to de-industrialize remilitarize and create a self-sufficient economic system. So I think that Japan will actually suffer in the beginning, but they will actually be in the forefront of global change and nations that absolutely refuse to make these three necessary changes will be the most likely to suffer. And quite honestly, I have very little hope for my own country, which is China. I I think that because of these changes Japan will start to emerge as the local hedgeimon while China is still stuck to the old global order. But in a short term what this means is that the United States and China will have a repulse month. Okay. So even this war has started Trump will still visit Beijing March 31st at the end of this month for a three-day state visit. And I think that people will be surprised by how friendly and productive this meeting will be. And in fact actually this year this there are scheduled three major summits between China and the United States. And so I think that both nations are working towards a reproachment in order to repair the global order. But there's no saving the global order. It's dying. And so if you omit this reality and commit to revamping society, deind industrializ sorry de-industrialization, remilitarization and moving towards a self-sufficient economy, then you are much more likely to weather the storm that is coming.
You say that China's stuck in the old world order and one can see why. Um well with 40 years of unprecedented u prosperity and growth in human history one can see why one would want to at all cost keep this world going even though it already went away. It's not that unlike the Europeans though because then you know the '9s you know was a rebirth of Europe or you know thought together with the US was the center of the world. I remember having books at university which were with the
title: Why the 21st Century Belongs to Europe.
I mean, this was kind of the mentality. I thought that was also always a bit ridiculous. But anyways, there was reason for optimism, it seemed. So that's why they also cling on to a world order which is dying, which is why they're not able to to adjust to the new world.
One place though where there's a lot of pressure to readjust to the new order is Russia. That is, um, uh, you know, the spokesperson, Peskov, he was, he made a comment now recently saying that we have lost what, uh, well, we have all lost what we call international law. So the system is essentially dying, if not dead. And I think what really shook them was the decapitation strike on Iran, because this is, you know, the desperate act of a dying empire. And why wouldn't they do the same towards Russia? Indeed, they've been attacking their nuclear deterrent very openly. I would say they, there was a, I think this is likely that they tried to assassinate Putin at Valdai with this attack, at least, you know, is a theory. And again, why, why wouldn't they go for a decapitation strike against Russia? This is what many are thinking. They look what they did done to Iran. There's no rules. So why then is Russia doing this slow war of attrition? And also, they did this at the expense of their deterrent. That is, they allow the Americans and the Europeans to openly, you know, launch missiles deep into Russia. You can have a German chancellor sitting on stage saying, "Oh, yes, we imposed untold casualties on the Russians." I mean, there's so much pressure now on the Kremlin to drop this, whatever they've done the past four years. And why not do like the Iranians? Time to, you know, bring some pain to the Europeans. Because Europeans for the past four years said, "Why should the war be limited to Ukraine? Why not also extend it to Russia?" Well, why shouldn't the Russians bring it to Europe? This is what I see as the direction which is, uh, well, terrifying, because, uh, this is, um, a, you know, recipe for much larger war.
I was wondering how do you see this the Russian component here? Because, you know, they're also one of the great powers. Right? So what? So I look, look, I personally think that of all the world leaders, Vladimir Putin is the only one, only one with a grand strategy. Uh, he's a very capable leader, and he sees the big picture. He, he plays chess. Um, and so what he's waiting for is a US invasion of Iran. That's what he's waiting for. Because once the United States sends in ground troops, then the United States is all in. It can't extricate itself from the situation. At any point, the United States can stop this air campaign and say, "You know what? We killed the Ayatollah. We destroyed, uh, the Iranian nuclear threat. So we're going to go home, guys. Goodbye." Okay. But once the United States sends in ground troops, then it's locked in to this Iran quagmire for five to ten years, and there's no escaping. It'll be like, it'll be like another Vietnam, right? This gives Putin and Russia the perfect opportunity to move towards Odessa, which is the real goal and the end goal of this war in Ukraine. Because once they have Odessa, then they have basically achieved all their major military objectives. And so what's going to happen is the Europeans will have no choice but to defend Odessa to the last European. And that's where the next major conflict will be, uh, the siege of, of Odessa. And if the siege of Odessa were to happen, the Europeans would exhaust themselves defending against the Russian attack. Um, the Russians have perfected drone artillery warfare in the trenches of Ukraine. And that's a perfect combination if you are to, uh, besiege Odessa. And so the Europeans, they may be fresh, but they will be inexperienced. And so they will make a lot of mistakes. They will lose a lot of casualties. And this war will eventually become so unpopular back in Europe that this, that the population would revolt against the governments. Okay? So remember, this is a time of nuclear war. So you can't actually destroy each other's military. What you, what you can do is put so much stress and pain on the political system that the citizens ultimately rebel and overthrow the, the political system and, and impose a new system that is much more friendly towards Russia. So that, I think, is the grand plan that Putin has, and it's going to work.
>> Well, as, uh, I think it's the Chinese who say, it's, uh, we live in interesting times. So thank you very much.
>> Huh.
>> It's much too interesting. Well, thank you for taking the time and, um, yeah, it's, uh, as, as you began saying, this war against Iran, it's hard to believe that they went through with this, given all the risks. But, uh, uh, this is, I always make the point, uh, this is going to be the, the greatest catastrophe is this illusion of escalation control. The assumption that they can control all the variables, decide how it ends, who's allowed to participate, how they contribute. I mean, this is really the same as with the Russians in Ukraine. The, this assumption of escalation control, this is what's going to kill us, effectively, though.
>> Well, I will say this. I made this prediction two years ago, the United States will, would invade Iran. I've been saying for two years consistently that this would happen. The moment that it happened, I was shocked, and Bill Wilder and I couldn't sleep because I was like, why would they do this? So, um, so yeah, I mean, I, I sympathize with what you're feeling.