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مصطفى عامر30:39

Transcription

So, hello everyone. I hope that you had a wonderful week, right? I hope that you were, you know, mostly being patient. And if you, you know, traded more than, you know, once or twice, I hope that you had success. And even if you, you know, didn't have quote unquote success, but you managed to, you know, manage your risk, then that, you know, means that you have been successful, right? As long as you don't blow your account, which is something that you know is the most probable, you know, cause whenever someone new enters the marketplace and you're not that new, right? That's the that's the number one thing that you most you must focus on, right? Risk management. You should always remember that.

Anyways, yes, today we will be talking about entries, right? And just to go over a few things, right? Just to I'll just like try to pick out some of the topics that we've went over so far so you guys know what we have went over so far, right? We've talked about precision levels, right? Precision swing points, precision candles, sequential SMT, intermarket, sequential SMT. We introduced three tribes and we did talk about gold, you know, in relation to silver and and the dollar index, but we have not been into that a lot. Right? So that's four tribes right there. Right? We've talked about true opens which you've known before. You know, we have came into this mentorship. We've talked about revolving true open. We've talked about stock two open. We've talked about high probability breakers. Most of what we talk about revolves around the economic calendar. So you already know about that. We talked about expansion divergence, right? Gap, one gap versus two gaps, right? We've talked about, you know, FPGs, balance price range mostly when it comes to PDAs, right? We don't really focus on order blocks or, you know, things like that. Only thing that we, you know, reference to as a art block is just usually a precision candle or a precision swing point because otherwise it's just, you know, fake and rarely works, right? We talked about symmetrical lows and highs, right? SMT lows, SMT highs, the magneto effect, a hidden SMT. And we have, you know, begun to talk about doubling theory a bit, right? So, and we've talked about a lot of other things. It's just, you know, for the reasons of time, right? We won't list everything, but what I just talked about, you know, are the most important aspects to quarterly theory. What I just talked about are, you know, basically, you know, the fundamentals of QT, which you or what you know now. All you really need is four, you know, out of just four things that I just talked about, you know, with the economic calendar being the base, you need that there and you need, but you don't need sequential SMT, but it's either sequential SMT or precision swing points or the both of them to, you know, increase your accuracy, right?

So yes and of course there will be you know we will have to eventually have a lecture whereas we will have to you know just begin to dig deeper into these concepts right there's a lot right and if you're someone that needs more right now you need to understand that you don't need more right now because there's a lot you need understand what you already have, you know, cuz yes, you'll be getting more, but even when you get more, right? It will just make you like a addict for information. But at the moment, you need to be, you know, becoming better with your approach to trading and and an analysis, right? You need to find what works for you and you need to find what's, you know, the easiest thing for you to spot, right? The main thing to take away from all of this is that you you need to understand when markets are, you know, prone to move, when markets are prone to, you know, reverse, right? And when they aren't, which is another totally important topic. You need to know when not to do anything. You need to know when not to trade. That is important. You need to know when you know you will have the low probability moves taking place in the marketplace when you should leave price alone you know most of the times like for example last week right was it you know a fluke a mistake why didn't I go live on Thursday because price was not clear right whenever I don't live it means I'm not looking at anything whenever I don't go live So, I'm just waiting for more information. And as you guys know, less than a month from now, well, things are 30 days, 29 days, we will have the US elections, an event that we have been waiting for this entire year. Well, I've been waiting for this for like 3 years now, but you understand what I'm trying to say, right? We will have a lot of volatility and as you guys know and you will see in the marketplace we will have you know one asset consolidating most of the times or one asset class consolidating most of the times when we're comparing the FX to the the FX market to the futures market right and we're just using that for now because it's easier right you don't need to be looking at too much assets at the moment right we've talked about you previous assets before but you know most of the moves when taking place you know are visual you can visualize them by just comparing the FX triad to the future stride right what what do I mean by that at times right I've said this before you will see consolidation within the FX market and whenever you see that type of price action you should expect expansion or you know expansive moves within the futures trade right and the and vice versa right whenever you see consolation within the futures market then you usually have expansion during the FX marketplace right and people ask are we going to talk about entries yes you will of course I will talk entries take notes cuz I'll just, you know, throw them in there for you to take notes, right? You need to be paying attention and whenever I throw them in there, I'll tell you that you need to take notes. Whenever I tell you that you need to take notes, you just need to take notes, right? You don't need to ask about, you know, will I receive this, will I receive that? I know what you need to receive, right? There's a lot of you. I know what you lack. I know what you don't. I know what you understand, right? You can see that you know there there is a good number of you guys that are already profitable already you know you're good with analysis which is the main thing you need to be good at analysis right that's the main thing that's the main reason of this you need accuracy well you don't need accuracy but you know I need you to have accuracy right you should be you know inhumane when it comes to this thing Right? So just listen, pay attention. Don't like talk about anything that you know I'm not talking about, right? It's not if I don't talk about it right now, then it's not you know important right now and then I have I will cover it you know in future lectures but everything cannot be talked about in one lecture right you'll be you'll just get confused.

So yes something important to note right and this is important to know so that means that you should not whenever you have days right listen this is how you can decipher low probability weeks right and it's the easy way to decipher low probability weeks right whenever you have weeks whereas you know and you'll see this coming like before the week has you know started for example the previous week you can see that we had news events on every single day, right? That's low probability. Weeks which are not low probability, weeks that are weeks that are high probability, they will have around, you know, have news events in on 3 days or less, right? So the less the less. So less is more here, right? So price will expand more or price will move away from the open of the week more you know with the less news events that it has right why is that because whenever you have new okay let's say there is a total you know number divided among each day so say you have 100 for the amount of liquidity just you know a random number here, right? You would have to split that liquidity. So you would have put 20 on Monday, 20 on Tuesday, 20 on Wednesday, 20 on Thursday, and 20 on Friday. And that results in what? Consolidation. That results in the weekly range, you know, barely moving. The days move, but the weekly range barely moves, right? But whenever you have for example you have 70% of the liquidity you know you know being you know released on a Wednesday for example you just have one or two days that have high news events then it's very easy for you to know where the high of the week will form if you have three days of the week right and you you know when to look for that sequence SMT or that you know sequence SMT between the days of the weeks Right? If you have for example next week, see here we have three days that have you know iPad news. So it's highly probable that we will see that on Thursday for some asset classes right highly probable. It's not Thursday, it's Wednesday. And for some, you know, the low of the week will be Wednesday. For some, it will be Thursday. And then that would create a cracking correlation, right? For Monday, what would you look for? You would look for a cracking correlation between Monday and Friday, right? That's exactly what you would look for. Here you can see that right this right here this is the low of 2023 right this is the high of 2023 and this is the high of 2023 yes it's now 2024 we have traded above here which is why you know we expected you know price to pull back if you guys remember while price was trading above here right we got that but you know we had this high taken out before price actually returned back within the range. So here right and right here we have the real quoteunquote turtle soup just a run right we have these heights right here these heights right here we have this gap right here right and actually I not supposed to be doing you know what's it called analysis right now talk should be talking about entries mostly about you know this what it is and here you can see that we have these lows down here which you would be a draw on liquidity. Price failed to trade below this low. It did trade below this low. This was sequential SMT. So this is a shift in structure. Right? The main thing is that we have sequential SMT here between 2023 and 204. So here and we're talking about entries now, right? You don't need right price to trade into a gap for an entry to be you know there right you price does not need to trade into a gap right you can just do it enter on the basis of you know a precision swing point such as right here right here we had hidden sequential SMT and sequential SMT at the same time right remember that you should focus on most you know when you're looking at the triads for the FX strate focus mostly on the euro because it will deliver the most accurate price action right whereas you know there are times when the British pound will be lagging but there are times when you know just as how there's time when you will have the Dow lagging right do you understand so here we had sequential smt and here we had sequence a precision swing point and then if you guys remember right we talked about you know this type this consolidation right here right before we had this expansion move and here again we had another position a position candle right here right which led to which led to price falling. So this is what we talked about the last time we met right and here you can see that the concept that we talked about you know it fully played on right we had price just expand upwards right and that was due to the fact that we had sequential SMT here so we and we did note here right which was the high of the week it was Monday right and Monday had a correlation between Friday, right? Monday traded above here. Here price failed to break below this low. And the same thing occurred here. Then price just continued lower for you know majority of the week. And this is where you will see you know the magic in you know expansion between the FX market and the futures trade. So here you see the FX market expanding right expanding expanding but when you look at the futures market what do you see right you see price just stuck within a range and this is what I what I mean when I say that whenever the FX market expands right you will see this during the futures market and vice versa right this is what you'll So right here is where you will see you know high probability entries come into play. So, of course, this was caused by sequential SMT. That's why we had price going upwards, right? What makes sequential SMT high probability, right? There's one of two things that could lead that could make sequence high probability. Well, there are three things that could cause that. So whenever you have for example you have se ment occurring on a new week opening gap whereas within another asset it doesn't occur on a new opening gap or it doesn't reach for that a new opening gap such as here that creates a cracking correlation you know on top of the cracking correlation that's already underway right so and this usually happens within these conditions right and It's clear to note right whenever you whenever we have you know price like this before Fridays it's easy to know that price will continue within you know or trade within the weekly range cuz that's typically what you you know what happens what why did price continue like this into the weekly range tell me why because you had sequential here that's why that's exactly Right. And it was on a new week opening gap. So that's not the only way that you could use it without, you know, this. Yes, the new opening gap is useless. But also, if you mesh the new week opening gap and you should be taking notes now with, you know, free valley gaps, that leads to high probability entries, right? you will open gaps plus fear value gaps. So for example, if you have right if you have value gap such as this right here right overlapping with a new week opening gap and this isn't the best price action but you know I like using you know real price action that has been delivered recently to you know depict these kind of kinds of moves right whenever you have a new opening gap overlap with a fair value gap that creates high probability entries right where also here right where you have we had sequential symmetry here so between this low and this low right here you can you treat here this area as an entry point right but you must look at the other quarter so it's not that you know this happens here, you pay attention or you try to enter here. No, you wait until the other quarter. So, if this occurred in Wednesday, then you would wait until Thursday for the, you know, quote unquote entry to form, right? Price falls below this low, your stock would be here. And again, right would be here for the doubt. It's pretty obvious, right? It's it's just too obvious. That's just too obvious, right? Whenever you see highs like this, you know, they must be ran through. It's extremely low probability for the for them to just not be right for it to just be there like that. Another thing is that whenever you see right position swing points, right, you need to pay attention to them. Always pay attention to them. So such as here where we have this precision swing point right here. In all honesty, you don't need to fall down on a lower time frame. Which is why when price was here, we talked about the prepping correlation that was here, right? On the formation of this candle. That's a positional swing point as when the other day opens, right? This is for those of you that are lazy, right? Sometimes I am too, right? here. Position candle right here. What is this? Right. What's this? That's a precision. It's a position candle. This right here would be a another precision swing point, right? So, we have precision swing point here. Another position swing point here. It was obvious that, you know, this would continue lower, which is why we talked about the divergence that we had here. Once you see you know for example this is Monday resision candle price opens once it trades above the open then you can be bearish right cause why first of all we already have a cooking correlation here right there's already a cooking correlation here right this is hidden sequence of certainty then we had sequence here and we had and we had other you know cricket correlations which we we don't really need to talk about right now but they're there right just to make things simple right here you can see that we have this low take had you know taken this low already here right this one failed to do so so what is that what led to price you know running above this high and below this low the magneto effect you understand how does it work so here we have the magneto effect you know the leading cause of that in between you know this range and this range which caused this cracking correlation which was you know certified by the precision swim points Right? So it's you know it's pretty obvious once you have another precision swing point here or one even this one could be used and you know price tra anywhere within the body of this candle once you're above your stops above this high or for example here price tra is above this high you're safe and you you just go down to the lower time frame whenever you need more precision Right? Whenever you see a precision point right here, it's low probability that you know you will have a gap you know close like right here. Right? It will just expand because after you have a perfect correlation right between closures here hidden sequence hidden sequence is empty then it's empty right and you have a distingu point what will happen you will have expansion afterwards right and it's it's pretty simple that's that's the main thing and this is for those of you that you know you stay worried or you know you're looking for something perfect so you won't find something perfect but this is the closest thing to perfection that you can get. You see it's always there. It's always there. The tracking correlations they're all they're always there. It's just that sometimes right sometimes when you place a trade it goes against you and that is normal right so the only problem that you have is a problem with yourself right that's the only thing and for you to you know triumph over that problem for you to be successful the thing to do is pretty simple what is it you must just, you know, continue to make mistakes, not with real money, but making mistakes over and over again until you become numb to it. Then you begin to understand I must, you know, all I have to do is, you know, manage my risk and I'll be okay. If you lose, that is fine. That's totally okay. There are times when I go into the marketplace and I just and I just, you know, risk like 0.25% 25% lose it's like okay we fire it up now it's time to go just to get a feeling of you know what it's going to look like that usually I usually just do that whenever you know I've been away from a chart for a very long time so again and this and you need to focus on this right position swing points especially you know those on the you know daily precision swing points can be used to dictate what the direction of the weekly range as long as on the lower time frame, right? And a daily precision swing point, you know, to dictate the the weekly range or the daily range, you would just look for the, you know, matching cycle. So, for example, you're you're trading the daily time frame. You go down into a lower time frame cycle, right? And then you look for sequential MT. If it's there, you have sequential SMT within that precision swing point, then you have what you're looking for. And it's vice versa. If you see precision swing point within the cycle that you know you favor then you have a model right there as well.

So yes, just to go over what we talked about fair value gap plus new week open gap and day how do you so again basically this is just this is my settings right this is my settings if you you know want to see Right. So here you can see that we had price and we talked about this before. Price trading above a new open gap right above here. What do we have sequences in T here? We had a had sequences in T again you know between the monthly cycle. Then we had it here between the weekly cycle. So we had a two-state sequence here which was also you know above this new opening gap or the weekly open. Right? Looking at this you can see that price reacts to the new open gap more than it reacts to you know the candles. Right? So here you can see we had this new week opening gap here is something that we talked about. Whenever you have a high that is you know within a new opening gap it will serve as a draw on liquidity for price. So here we had price being drawn here. Once price went above the new opening gap you know which the high this high was formed within we had a correlation which led to price falling lower. Here you can see that we had this low form within this new golden gap. But there was no correlation here which is why we see sell price continue lower. So turtle soup, how can you just use turtle soup, you know, even without anything? And this would literally make you 50% accurate by not even looking at sequential sent. It's when you add sequential t that is when you will have you know more accuracy. So literally right here have price trade above this high here you can expect it to go lower due to the fact that during this week right here price is already you know above the new opening gap and 80% of times price returns to the new week open gap right here just such as here price trade above it trades above here create consistent Currency here falls returns back to it and then just continue lower here right you we saw price return back as how we just talked about return back to this new open gap here which is what we said happened 90% of the times right so on Fridays what do you aim for as your low hanging fruit you know the current week's new new week open gap So I hope that you you know you found this useful right I hope that you take notes from this and we will be back and just to know when we will be backyard you know we just look at the economic calendar if there is no news on Monday if there is news on Monday then it will be Sunday right if there's no news Tuesday which is latest time which we will start right it will be on Monday 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, right? So, hope you know hopefully during Monday we will see some form of either expansion or consolidation to, you know, use to depict where we can expect the weekly range to go, you know, the direction. With that being said, hope that you found this useful and we'll be back at Monday 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.