Transcription
In today's video, I want to update you on the $2,000 stimulus check that President Trump has promised us. This is the $2,000 tariff dividend.
As a refresher, here's what President Trump posted on November 9th on Truth Social. He said, "A dividend of at least $2,000 a person, not including high-income people, will be paid to everyone." So, two things to note here. First of all, President Trump did not say that he's thinking about it. He didn't say that this is an idea that's being floated out there. He didn't say it's a proposal. I mean, it's right there. He says that he's going to do it. I'm going to show you a video of President Trump saying that it's going to happen. And then the second thing is that you can see for yourself. He said that we're going to get $2,000 minimum. Maybe it could be $2,200 or even $2,400. Who knows?
And then on the next day, November 10th, here's what he said. President Trump wrote, "All money left over from the $2,000 payments made to low and middle income USA citizens from the massive tariff income pouring into our country from foreign nations, which will be substantial, will be used to substantially pay down national debts. Thank you for your attention to this matter."
So, as I told you, President Trump is committed to delivering on his word. However, I mean, yeah, I do have some concerns about all this and I want to voice them to you. Now, let me point out this statement to you. President Trump says that massive tariff income is pouring into our country from foreign countries. And I just want to say that that is incorrect. Foreign countries do not pay the United States of America tariffs. And let's fact, if you don't believe it, let's fact check this. So, we're going to go straight to the government's website. Title 19, Customs Duties. And let's see what it says. It reads, "The fee charged shall be paid by the importer of record of the merchandise." Okay, so that's pretty clear. If Walmart imports merchandise from China, then Walmart being the importer of record of the merchandise will pay the tariff, which is essentially a tax. So it doesn't say that the exporter, you know, in this example being China, pays the tariff. It says the importer.
Now, do you think that the importer, let's just say Walmart, is going to pay the tariff and not raise prices? And just logically speaking, I'm going to say of course not because they have shareholders to please and they don't want to see lower profits. And of course, retailers are going to raise prices to offset the tariffs. Walmart and Target, they've already raised their prices and even more so with Amazon. Nike, Adidas, Home Depot, Macy's, AutoZone, Best Buy, they've already raised prices on tariff products. Okay? But ultimately the tariff again, which is a tax, is paid by American importers and then that cost of the tax, it gets passed on to US consumers, which is you and me. So essentially, it's just you and me that's paying the tariff, not foreign countries. And it's going to be the same thing with food that's imported.
Now I want to tell you this. You have to remember that the government with their CPI inflation reports, the government reports say that the rate of inflation is at 3.0%. Okay? However, the price of bananas is up by 8.6% compared to 12 months ago. The price of coffee is up by 40%. Now, why do you think that's happening? It's because those products, just like many others, are heavily imported. Because I mean we got we have to import them. It's not like I can economically grow bananas or coffee in Chicago. The rising prices from tariff affected items has gotten so bad that President Trump had to cut certain tariffs.
Okay, now let's analyze this part. President Trump says that the tariffs are bringing in a massive amount of money. And President Trump says, "Okay, we're going to get a minimum of $2,000 and then he's going to use the leftover tariff money to substantially pay down our national debt." Now, let's see if the math is mathing. Here's how much has been collected in tariffs so far this year in calendar year 2025, which is the red line. As you can see, the revenue collected this year from tariffs is so much higher than previous years. Right now, as of November, it's at $228 billion. But of course, the year isn't over yet. For December, the government is expected to collect about another $35 billion, maybe 40 billion, you know, on the high end. And then we have the rest of November, right? So the final figure for the year, it's going to come around slightly under $300 billion for the entirety of 2025.
Now, the question is, is that enough to fund the $2,000 stimulus check and pay down a substantial amount of national debt? Just so you know, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the CBO, now if you remember this one, the $1,400 stimulus check that was issued back in 2021, that cost $411 billion. Okay, just think about that. Again, these tariffs are supposed to bring in around $300 billion, right? So according to my calculations, the math is not mathing. So that I mean that was the $1,400 stimulus check and President Trump's talking about $2,000 stimulus check. So if you're if you're talking about a $2,000 tariff dividend or stimulus check, that's going to cost $600 billion. So again, just think about that. Just I mean logically or mathematically. If the tariffs are going to bring in $300 billion, then how are you going to cover a $600 billion expense and then still have money to pay down a substantial amount of national debt?
Now, a good question is, or you could say an interesting question would be, do Americans believe President Trump about these $2,000 stimulus checks? And the answer is that most Americans are skeptical. You can, I mean, if you didn't know, you can bet on these types of things. And according to Poly Markets, the market believes that there's a 7% chance that President Trump's going to issue a $2,000 stimulus check in 2025. So what is that, a month and a half from now? In my opinion, for that, it should be closer to 0%. Because Congress would have to vote on this. And I mean, you saw what happened. The politicians can barely reopen the governments. There's no way that they're going to issue a $2,000 stimulus check in the next month and a half. And the market says that there's a 27% chance that President Trump issues the $2,000 stimulus check by March 31st of next year.
Now, here's my opinion. If you're going to hope for this or expect this by the end of this year, you know, a month and a half from now, I would say no way. That's that's not going to happen. That would take like an act of God. for 2026. I'll tell you that the only way that the government's going to issue a stimulus check, especially of this size, is if the economy craters or if a bailout is needed, which threatens an economic cratering. But let me tell you what I mean. If the government has to do a bailout, let's just say that they have to bail out the banks in 2026. So, if they have to do a bailout, then what's going to happen? and they're going to do their bailout, but they're going to give common Americans, everyday Americans, the crumbs, just like what happened in the past. I mean, you remember like here's $100 million in PPP money for your large business and then for the rest of the people, here's $1,400 as a stimulus check. But listen, I'm not ruling out this tariff dividend for 2026. But I just want you to know that if we do get a $2,000 stimulus check, we're going to get we're going to pay the consequence. the consequence is going to be inflation and again the stimulus check is going to be crumbs compared to what the uber wealthy receive.
But listen, although people are skeptical, President Trump keeps on saying that he's going to do it. So after he made those posts, there was a Q&A session and I want to show you what he said. So please take a look. Uh without tariffs, we would be this country would be in such trouble as they were for many years. That's why we owe $38 trillion. And one of the things we're going to do, we're going to issue a dividend to uh our middle income people and lower income people of about $2,000. And we're going to use the remaining tariffs to lower our debt. We're going to be lowering our debt, which is a national security thing. So, we uh we're doing a lot of good work and the numbers were reported so incorrectly. The real numbers are trillions of dollars have been taken in or gotten in terms of investment from the tariffs.
>> Listen, I want to tell you this. President Trump is saying that the tariffs are bringing in trillions of dollars because he's counting potential economic investments in the manufacturing industry over the coming years. Like that's what he's counting. But you have to remember that tariffs were supposed to revive our manufacturing sector, right? However, since tariff liberation day in April, the manufacturing sector here in the US has lost more than 50,000 jobs. Those are the facts.
Now, here's another very important issue that I want you to know. Normally, tariffs can only be implemented with a vote through Congress. Of course, President Trump didn't do that. And President Trump's tariffs are being challenged in the Supreme Court now. Here's the cost of the $2,000 tariff dividend, the stimulus check, around $600 billion. Right? And President Trump's tariffs are going to bring in a little under $300 billion. But here's the thing. If the Supreme Court says that President Trump's tariffs are illegal and they have to be voted through Congress, then most of the tariffs would be struck down and then the tariffs would only bring in under $100 billion.
Okay, so that's your $2,000 stimulus check update that President Trump is promising us. Let me know what you think and I'm going to keep you updated on this whole situation. Thank you so much and wish you a very nice day. Take care.