Transcription
This week, the global gold price just broke below the US$4,000 per ounce level, hitting its lowest point of 2026 before starting to rebound in the past 2-3 days. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a crucial interest rate decision meeting on July 29th, a factor that gold investors worldwide are closely watching.
For those holding physical gold or deciding whether to buy or sell at this time, the question many want answered is: what will be the direction of the gold price on Monday, July 20th? Today, we will look at all the real data, including technical charts, economic figures, and the latest perspectives from global financial institutions like Xporgan and UBS, to help you make your own decision.
We want to emphasize from the outset that all content is an analysis based on currently available data, not a confirmation of what will actually happen. The gold market is highly volatile, and no one can predict with 100% accuracy. However, if you want to understand the overall picture of both the upside and downside in detail, we recommend watching until the end, as we will summarize both scenarios comprehensively.
Let's start with the latest gold market situation. Data from the Thai Gold Traders Association as of July 18, 2026, at 09:02 AM, shows that 96.5% gold bars are bought at 63,850 baht and sold at 64,050 baht, an increase of 350 baht compared to the previous day. 96.5% gold ornaments, with a tax base of 62,580.48 baht, are sold at 64,850 baht. It can be seen that domestic gold prices have risen in line with the global gold price recovery in the recent period.
If you observe closely, you will notice a considerable difference between the price of gold bars and gold ornaments. This is partly due to the craftsmanship fee or labor cost for shaping, which is normal for the Thai gold market. This is also why gold ornaments typically fetch a lower price when sold back compared to gold bars of the same weight.
For the global gold spot price, data from Goldprice.org indicates a price of US$4,01.51 per ounce, an increase of $29.73, or 0.75% in the past day. The price of silver is at $55.9 per ounce, an increase of 0.07%.
Looking back, the gold price has decreased by approximately 5.64% in the past 30 days and by as much as 14.76% in the past 6 months. This reflects that gold has gone through a rather severe correction phase after reaching its all-time high in January of this year at nearly $56,000 USD. However, looking at the 1-year timeframe, the gold price is still up by 18.96%, and looking back 5 years, the gold price has surged by over 119.63%, reflecting a continued long-term uptrend, despite significant short-term volatility.
Another factor that Thai people must monitor is the baht exchange rate, as domestic gold prices are not solely dependent on global gold prices but are also linked to the US dollar to baht exchange rate. The latest data indicates that the baht has weakened to around 33.663 baht per dollar, its weakest level in over a year, having depreciated by over 2.6% in the past month.
This weakening of the baht has resulted in domestic gold prices not falling as much as they should have in line with global gold prices, because the weaker baht has partially supported the price of gold in baht terms. Conversely, if the baht strengthens in the future, domestic gold prices may fall more sharply than global gold prices.
Next, let's look at the technical analysis. From the XAU USD chart on Trading View and data from analysis websites like FX Street and Light Finance, it is found that in mid-July, the gold price broke below the $4,000 level, reaching a new low for 2026 around $3,941 to $3,974 per ounce, before buying interest began to return in that zone. The current price structure is still trading below all three key moving averages: the 20-day moving average around $4,031, the 100-day moving average around $4,070, and the 200-day moving average, which is as high as around $4,174.
This characteristic of short-term moving averages being below long-term moving averages is technically called a short-term downtrend structure, meaning that each upward rebound is likely to encounter selling pressure around these moving averages. The key support levels to watch are the $3,940 to $3,965 zone. If the price clearly breaks below this zone, there is a chance of further downside to test the $3,900 zone. The nearest resistance is around $4,020 - $4,030, followed by the $4,050 - $4,060 zone, and the next significant resistance is at $4,080 - $4,100. If this zone is significantly breached, it will open the way for the price to retest the major resistance at $4,200 again.
In terms of short-term momentum, after the sharp decline in gold prices in early to mid-month, selling pressure is now showing signs of slowing down in the support zone, but there is no clear confirmation that the short-term downtrend will completely reverse into an uptrend.
Looking at a broader perspective on the weekly chart since the beginning of the year, gold has formed a pattern that some analysts call a head and shoulders, which is often interpreted as a signal of a trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. The left shoulder occurred around October 2025 at approximately $4,500, the head is the all-time high at approximately $5,598 in January of this year, and the right shoulder occurred in April at approximately $4,850. The neckline of this pattern is around $4,200, and the current price is trading below this level. If the weekly closing price in the future is clearly below this neckline, the technical target for this pattern could be around $2,575 - $2,750, which is significantly lower than the current price.
However, it is important to understand that chart patterns are just one analytical tool and not a confirmation that prices will always move according to the pattern. Analysts from Xporgan have specifically assessed that for Monday, July 20th, the gold price is likely to continue to fluctuate within the range of $3,951.68 to $4,059.90 per ounce, with no clear signal yet indicating a definitive direction.
The information in this video is for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk. Viewers should conduct further research and consult with experts before making any investment decisions. The forecasts in this video are based solely on currently available data and may not be 100% accurate.
Next, let's look at the fundamental factors currently affecting gold prices. The most important factor is the direction of monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Currently, the new Fed Chair is Mr. Kevin Watch, who officially took office in May, succeeding Mr. Jerome Powell. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-June, the committee decided to keep interest rates at 3.50-3.75%, stating that inflation remains above the long-term target of 2%. The next meeting will be held on July 28-29, with the interest rate decision to be announced on July 29th at 2:00 PM US time.
Data from CME Fed Watch, a tool that assesses the probability of interest rate decisions based on futures prices, indicates that the market assigns approximately a 66.3% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this July meeting. The remaining probability is assigned to the possibility that the Fed may raise interest rates later this year, particularly in September and December. This is different from earlier in the year when the market still expected interest rate cuts. This shift in direction is the primary reason for the sharp decline in gold prices in the first half of 2026. Generally, higher interest rates or prolonged high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is an asset that does not yield interest, causing some investors to shift to holding bonds or cash instead.
In addition to interest rates, the economic data to be released this week will also affect gold price direction. This includes private sector employment figures from ADP on July 21st, weekly jobless claims on July 23rd, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing and services on July 24th. These figures will be used to assess whether the US economy remains strong enough to support continued high interest rates. If the figures come out stronger than expected, the dollar may strengthen, putting further pressure on gold prices. However, if the figures come out weaker than expected, it may increase the possibility that the Fed will reconsider interest rate cuts, which would be positive for gold prices.
Another factor to monitor is the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has been a significant cause of rising oil prices and inflation recently, indirectly affecting the Fed's monetary policy direction. If the situation eases, inflationary pressures may decrease. However, if the situation persists or intensifies, it could once again provide a boost for investors to hold gold as a safe-haven asset.
Another structural factor that many parties remain positive about gold in the long term is the buying demand from central banks worldwide. Survey data from OMFI indicates that approximately 45% of central banks that responded to the survey plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, and nearly 90% expect global official gold reserves to continue to increase. Furthermore, Western gold ETFs have seen inflows of over 500 tons since the beginning of 2025, while China has been continuously buying gold reserves for several consecutive months. These structural factors are what most banks still cite as the main reason for maintaining a positive long-term outlook on gold, even if short-term prices fluctuate with interest rate and dollar trends.
Now, let's look at the latest views from major global financial institutions. Starting with Goldman Sachs, on June 20th, they revised down their year-end 2026 gold price target from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce, citing a slowdown in gold ETF inflows and the Fed's lack of intention to cut rates this year as previously expected. Goldman Sachs also stated that if the Fed decides to raise rates instead of holding them steady, gold prices could fall to $4,400 in a worst-case scenario. However, the bank maintains a positive long-term view, believing that buying demand from central banks worldwide, at around 60 tons per month, will continue to support gold prices.
JPMorgan has a significantly different outlook. On July 3rd, they revised down their Q4 2026 gold price target from approximately $6,000 to just $4,500 per ounce, a substantial reduction of about 25%. They cited weaker-than-expected demand from key buyer groups and gold's increased sensitivity to real interest rates. JPMorgan also estimates that the average price in Q3 of this year will be around $4,300. However, JPMorgan reiterates its positive long-term view, believing that buying demand from central banks and actual gold demand will continue to allow gold prices to rise further in 2027.
UBS, which was previously one of the most bullish banks on gold, with a target as high as $6,200 early in the year, has gradually lowered its targets throughout the first half of the year. The latest data from mid-June indicates that UBS has revised its year-end 2026 gold price target down to approximately $5,500 per ounce. Although this is a reduction, it is still considered the most bullish outlook compared to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan during the same period. UBS attributes this to strong demand for gold from central banks worldwide and views the recent gold price correction as merely a temporary pause.
For the World Gold Council, a global industry representative body, they typically do not provide specific price targets like commercial banks but rather assess them within a probability range. Their latest mid-2026 outlook suggests that gold prices are likely to trade within a range of approximately $4,100 plus or minus 5%, assuming no significant new factors impact the market.
It is evident that the views of each institution differ considerably, and all have been adjusting their target figures throughout the past six months. This reflects that even world-class professional analysts cannot provide a definitive answer regarding the direction of gold prices. Therefore, this information should only be used as a reference framework for decision-making, not as a confirmation that prices will indeed move as predicted.
Now, let's consider two scenarios. First, the bullish scenario. If at the Fed meeting on July 29th, the committee signals more dovishness than the market expects, or even maintains a neutral tone without mentioning interest rate hikes, coupled with weaker-than-expected US economic data to be released this week, it could lead to a weaker dollar and support gold prices to rebound and test the resistance at $4,020-$4,030. If this zone is breached, the next level is resistance at $4,050-$4,060, and if there is continued buying support, prices could test the significant resistance zone at $4,080-$4,100, which is around the 100-day moving average. If there are additional positive factors, such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East or reduced political uncertainty in the US, prices could move to test the 200-day moving average at $4,174 and the psychological resistance at $4,200. Looking further ahead to the end of the year, this positive scenario would align with the targets of UBS and Goldman Sachs, who see prices in the range of $4,900-$5,500. However, it must be reiterated that this scenario requires multiple factors to align simultaneously, making it only one possibility, not a certainty.
Conversely, the bearish scenario could occur if US economic data this week comes out stronger than expected, especially employment figures and the Purchasing Managers' Index. This could lead the market to assign more weight to the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates sooner than expected at the September meeting. Such a scenario typically supports a stronger dollar and puts downward pressure on gold prices, causing them to fall below the support at $3,940-$3,965. If this zone is clearly breached, the next step would be to test the support at $3,900. If selling pressure continues, prices could fall back towards the year's low, aligning with Goldman Sachs' worst-case scenario estimate of $4,400 by year-end.
For the domestic gold market in Thailand, if global gold prices weaken in this scenario but the baht continues to weaken, domestic gold prices may not fall proportionally to global gold prices. However, if the baht strengthens while global gold prices weaken, domestic gold prices could fall more sharply than expected. Similar to the bullish scenario, this scenario is also just one possibility, depending on the direction of the economic data and the Fed's statements.
When all the information is compiled, including the technical picture of trading below key moving averages, the fundamental factor of the market leaning towards holding rates rather than cutting them (around 66%), and the divergent views of financial institutions, the latest data from LightFin analyzes specifically for Monday, July 20th, estimates that gold prices will likely continue to trade in a narrow range between approximately $3,952 - $4,060 per ounce, with no clear signal yet indicating a definitive direction. In other words, the current data points towards range-bound trading rather than a strong move in either direction. The level to watch particularly is the $4,020-$4,030 zone, which is the 20-day moving average. If prices can hold firmly above this level, it would be a short-term positive signal. However, if they continue to trade below this level, downward pressure may persist. The factor that will truly determine the direction is the outcome of the Fed meeting on July 29th, which is still over a week away from this Monday. Therefore, the current data points towards narrow range volatility rather than a significant move in the near future.
For anyone considering buying or selling gold at this time, the most important thing is to manage risk appropriately according to your financial situation. You should not invest all your available funds in a single asset and should consider your holding period in line with your financial goals, whether for long-term savings or short-term speculation, as both carry very different risks.
The information and analysis in this video are only part of the decision-making process. Viewers should seek additional information from multiple sources and, if unsure, should consult with a licensed financial advisor or investment consultant before making any decisions. The information in this video is for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk. Viewers should conduct further research and consult with experts before making any investment decisions. The forecasts in this video are based solely on currently available data and may not be 100% accurate.
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