Transcription
The further we get into the cycle, we cannot be complacent. Like the same analyst who predicted what would happen in 2025 is now predicting what comes next. But if you go back and look at all the major tops, they've always been in the fourth quarter of the post-election year, right? You have Q4 2013, Q4 of 2017, Q4 of 2021. History is repeating, at least according to quantitative analyst Ben Cowen.
So I just want people to be aware that, you know, history might repeat itself. He says, "We've seen this all play out before, and my guess is that 2026."
Smash the like button, subscribe to Altcoin Daily. Today, we ask analyst Ben Cowan the tough questions that you want to know the answer to. And if you want access to the same quantitative charts that Ben uses to predict the future, I will leave a link to these below. Let's get started. Benjamin Cowan, thank you for coming on. People, you know, watch your show. And I think these are the words that are associated with your channel over the years. You've built up this reputation: reliable, tells it like it is, no hype, and you know, I want to give you your flowers. You predicted what happened to Bitcoin dominance. You faced a lot of backlash over the last couple of years, but essentially, when you're talking about Bitcoin dominance, everything you said came true, in my opinion. So, you know, with that being said, and welcome to the show today, Benjamin, my first question is, how are you doing? And then, what's your general take on the state of crypto today?
Yeah, I'm doing great. Thanks for having me here. Pleasure to be here, as always. And, yeah, I mean, it's been an interesting cycle for sure. I don't really think 2025 has gone like most people thought it would, right? Like, obviously Bitcoin dominance went up a lot, and it went all the way up to 66%. But you know how many people, back when Trump was inaugurated on January 20th, like, how many people would have said, "Alright, in nine months, the price of Bitcoin will be the same"? You know, like, that's not really something that I feel like a lot of people predicted. I feel like either you were in the bull camp of it going a lot higher, or you were in the bear camp of it going a lot lower. Not really in the camp of, "Hey, we're just going to be at the same price nine months from now."
So, I think because of that, it's led to a lot of apathy in the markets, right? Like, not a lot of people care about what's going on right now. Even though Bitcoin is not that far away from all-time highs, all things considered, there's not really a lot of interest right now. And so, like, one of the reasons like this cycle feels so much different than prior cycles is because, like, retail investors never really came back this cycle, right? At least they haven't yet. I mean, maybe that'll change, right? We still have a little bit of time left in 2025. But like, one of the metrics that we've talked about before is the, like, the social interest, right? Like, the social interest in crypto. And like, this cycle, like, social interest is just not here. Like, it's it's really similar to monetary, sort of the, the social interest during the monetary policy phase of of 2019, where we were getting some rate cuts. You know, the Fed decided to sort of reverse course on monetary policy a little bit, but they didn't really commit to it. And so social interest is not like what it was in 2021, and it's not like what it was in 2017, even though Bitcoin is doing basically what it always does. Like, if you look at the chart of the ROI from the low for Bitcoin, kind of factoring in diminishing returns. I mean, you've been in crypto for many, many cycles, and it seems like every cycle, people say, "This time's going to be different, and we're going to go up much higher, and diminishing returns won't be a thing." But if you just, let's say, someone asked you to draw a line of the ROI for the market cycle for Bitcoin, factoring in diminishing returns, you'd probably draw kind of like what happened, right? Like, that's seems like a reasonable move if you account for diminishing returns. And that's not to say that it can't go any higher. It's just that, you know, you wouldn't it wouldn't make sense to call for like a 400k Bitcoin because at that point, you're essentially saying, "Alright, diminishing returns is over," despite the fact that the market cap is so much higher. And that doesn't really make a whole lot of sense either.
So, I I think all in all, this cycle feels a lot different than the last cycle for people, and interest isn't really here because the altcoin market hasn't really been doing that great. Um, and really, do you, you like, remember back in 2020 and 2021, where you could basically buy anything and it was going to go up, right? Like, anything.
That was the thing. Yeah.
Yeah. I mean, those were the good old days, right? Like, you could literally just go buy, I mean, you could buy a JPEG, right? I mean, like, anything was going up.
Not the ones I bought.
Right, of course. I'm not talking about your JPEGs. Um, but but but if you look at like the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, it basically shows you, you know, why or like what what is participating in the moves. And like, in 2020 and 2021, it was trending up. So assets were generally trending up in crypto. But really since 2021 ended, it's been trending down. So what that suggests is that this is more so like, this this entire bull market has been more so because of a concentration in only a few cryptocurrencies. Obviously, Bitcoin being one. And then at various points in the cycle, you had certain ones doing well. Like Solana did well in 2023 and 2024. We saw Ethereum doing pretty well earlier this year. We were we just saw BNB doing relatively okay just a few weeks ago, putting in all-time highs. And late last year, XRP was doing was doing well. So, like, we've seen different cryptocurrencies do well, but we haven't seen them all do well at the same time. And and because of that, it it's led to a cycle where people keep, like, a lot of people just keep being in the wrong thing, right? They keep chasing something, and then something else goes up. Um, it's not the entire market. And so, it's generally just led to this sense of of apathy. But as I've said before, and and really Bitcoin dominance was kind of the way to understand this, is it's not like, in terms of Bitcoin valuations of altcoins, this time has not been different. In fact, this is going to sound crazy. Um, but to some degree, it feels like we live in a simulation because, you know, all Bitcoin pairs, this includes this includes Ethereum. So, we're looking at total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. But all Bitcoin pairs are around 0.6, right? And of course, like, that's going to change. They're going to fluctuate. Um, but let's just say they're around 0.6. Not, not, I mean, like, if you if you remove Ethereum, it's 0.38, right? But if you if you include Ethereum, it's at 0.6. Same exact valuation as exactly eight years ago, right? In in late 2017. Like, they're they're the same valuation back then as they are today.
The ratio of altcoins to Bitcoin is the same as 2017.
Late October, early November 2017, they were at the same valuation that they are today.
Is that is that bullish?
I mean, well, the point is is that like, this is the reason why Bitcoin dominance has been important is that, you know, if you just kind of assumed that, so so so the mistake that a lot of people made was assuming that altcoins were going to get this massive capitulation or this massive, um, uh, capitalization phase where they're going to go up against Bitcoin and up only. But I think the argument was always, no, that that already happened a few years ago. We're in a we're just in the phase where they're potentially oscillating at bit against Bitcoin at best. And what you'll notice back then is that all Bitcoin pairs found a low in early November and then again in early December. So, you know, if you're looking for like short-term moves in the altcoin market and Bitcoin dominance, like, you're probably going to see all Bitcoin pairs bounce a little bit in November. Um, but a lot of times, even though that might be the case, a lot of times as you go into December, Bitcoin takes that liquidity right back again, right? And I mean, that's kind of been the story of this entire cycle. So, yeah, I mean, like, Bitcoin dominance has done really well. It probably will continue to do well. I mean, obviously, with monetary policy shifting and the Fed funds rate getting closer to the neutral rate, like, you know, the the bull case for Bitcoin dominance is going to start to evaporate, especially as we get, you know, closer to the end of the year and especially, um, as we continue to go on. But yeah, like, I mean, it's been it's been a really easy cycle in the sense of all you had to do was buy Bitcoin and hold on to it because it's going to outperform most everything else.
Yeah, that's, you know, to me, you speaking about how 2025 didn't, you know, we all thought back in 2022 and 2023, 2025 would be the year of the blow-off top. But I mean, honestly, looking back, 2024 into January of 2025, to me, that felt like a mini bull market. And then throughout 2025, not really what we think of with the bull market. And we've seen Bitcoin go from 60K to 120K with retail not being here. So, you know, I guess what we're trying to figure out, Ben, is this is the time when the four-year cycle would traditionally be over in the next few months, maybe the next six months, who knows?
Are you bullish like into 2026, or how are you thinking about this?
Yeah. So, so by the way, this is the chart. Um, I think I didn't share my screen. Um, you didn't while I was talking about it, but this is the chart I was talking about. So, this is total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. And right now, they're at 0.6. And again, this exact same time in 2017, they're at the same valuation, right? Same exact valuation. And and what I was referring to was like this initial capitalization phase, a lot of people thought we were going to get. But the argument was that no, that was only going to happen once, and then now we're sort of in this phase where they oscillate against Bitcoin.
I mean, that looks it looks like a bullish setup to me, just from
Right. You, I mean, you could basically have like, I I could see a scenario where you have sort of a low in all Bitcoin pairs coming up soon, uh, and then maybe liquidity flows back to Bitcoin again, and then you get another low, maybe like in December, and then they get a big bounce or something. I mean, it's hard to know. I mean, monetary policy is constantly changing, and so I think it makes sense to be open-minded to, you know, to things changing. It's not like Bitcoin dominance is going to go up forever, right? I mean, it's been easy to wear the Bitcoin maxi hat for a long time, but we also know that that markets do eventually change, and and this time is probably going to be no different. Um, but yeah, I mean, like, in terms of the cycle, um, man, I I I I meant to share all these charts while I was talking earlier.
I was wondering, but it's okay.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, this is the ADI, right? This is the advanced decline index that I was talking about, where you can see that it was basically just going down right since 2021, and in 2020 and 20 in in 2020 and through 2021, it was going up.
What is the decline index?
The advanced decline index is basically just you look at the number of coins in the top 100 that are going up, and then you subtract out the number that are going down, and then you add in the prior index value. And so if the entire market is moving up, then the advanced decline index is going to go up. But if if only a few assets are going up, in this case, like Bitcoin, the market cap can go up of the asset class, but the ADI was actually going down. So what that shows you is more assets were actually going down than going up.
I see. Since 2022, just going down?
Right. Yeah. Like, a lot of the a lot of the cryptocurrencies in the top 100 just keep going down. It's just that you have a few that are going up. So that's the reason why sentiment is so bad, right? Like, that's one of the reasons why it's so bad. And and just for completeness, even I know I talked about it earlier, but just so people can can actually see the, um, the the chart, the social interest today is so low, right? Like, it's it's all the way down here at essentially zero. And you compare it to 2017 and 2021, and it looks nothing like those post-halving years. So there are a lot of differences, right? There are a lot of differences in terms of like social interest right now being very different from from those prior years. So, yeah.
So, what I think is going to happen, I I think that, you know, you could you could make the argument that that Bitcoin, and I know I've been saying this forever, like I've been saying it forever, but it still holds true today. You could argue that Bitcoin, this entire move kind of mimics the move we had over there when Bitcoin dominance was going up back in in 2019, right? It was like a it was a Bitcoin rally, and a few things would go up, but it was mostly just Bitcoin. And and some of the similarities of it are, if you like, look at interest rates, you can see back then it also corresponded to a Fed pause originally, and then they started to cut rates. Kind of the same thing, right? Kind of the same thing is happening once again. And also, you know, it it it corresponded to monetary policy, right? Like the the shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, you know, that was something that also, um, was going on back then. And so there's a lot of similarities between that. And so I I think the way I'm thinking about this right now is like, I have to assume this time's not different, although it always could be, right? I mean, you've been around crypto a long time. We've seen the four-year cycles play out over and over and over again. Um, I suppose it's always possible for this time to be different. But if you go back and look at all the major tops, they've always been in the fourth quarter of the post-election year, right? You have Q4 of 2013, Q4 of 2017, Q4 of 2021. And so the argument is like, well, if it's not broke, why fix it? And maybe we just have another top in Q4 of 2025. The difficult part is that in all these other prior cycles, we had all these like, you know, there was euphoria, right? There was euphoria there. And even last cycle, a lot of the indicators that people created to try and predict tops were going off in April of 2021. And like, none of them have gone off this cycle. Not a single one that I know of. Um, the only things that are starting to sort of flash warnings are the time-based metrics, right? And what I mean by that is if you look at like the ROI of Bitcoin from the low, like, you know, it's been a good cycle, right? It's been a good cycle. And again, this purple line, as I was asking earlier, like, if you were to draw a line suggesting like, what could the ROI be for this cycle with diminishing returns, like, you maybe would have drawn something similar to what the purple line has been so far, you know, like
Brought it a little bit up, more up at the end. But yeah.
Right. And and here's the thing. Here's the thing. If you look at it like this, it looks like the cycle's spent, right? If you measure it from the low, but if you measure it from the high, if you go ROI after cycle peak, and you look at this cycle compared to the 2017 cycle, there's still a chance, you know, there's still a chance we have another move left in us. I think the way I would think about it is like this, though. If this does end up shaping out to be like the 2019 move, where Bitcoin like tops, but it doesn't top on euphoria, right? What usually what happens is that then if it doesn't top, and by the way, Bitcoin could go to 140K, and there's still not really be a lot of euphoria. I mean, if it can go to 126K without euphoria, what's going to change at 140? You know, but the point is, is if it if if euphoria doesn't come back, if if if altcoins don't really start to rally against Bitcoin, then I think you you have to start to look closer at this move over here, where you had this like top that was not on euphoria, and then you ended up getting a a slower decline following that top. So, what I think is going to happen is this, like, and I'm just being completely transparent with people. I think as long as Bitcoin stays above the 50-week moving average on weekly closes, it it's prudent to to still be somewhat optimistic about the market, right? There's still a chance that Bitcoin could could rally up into a new all-time high into into December, right? Like, there's still a chance that that happens. But I think because it's the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, if if we think we have a shot clock and we think that the cycle is going to end in this quarter, then if you start getting weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, I just don't know that we're going to have enough time to like really repair that and then go into another rally. Because if you look at all prior cycles, the cycle was over after you had weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, right? Like, that was kind of a a hallmark sign that, hey, the cycle is over. And this cycle, you can see that every time Bitcoin has gone to the 50-week moving average, it has found support, right? Like anytime it's gotten close to it, it's ultimately found support. So that's kind of like my like my sort of the bellwether that I'm trying to use. And and by the way, the the 50-week moving average is around, it's a little over 100K. So I mean, really, if you start getting like weekly closes below 100K, the cycle's probably over at at whatever point that happens. Um, but I think for me, like, I've I've tried to remain optimistic for for a while now, and and and hope that that we can go up a little bit more. Um, but again, the further we get into the cycle, we we cannot be complacent. Like I I I can't. I mean, we saw what happened in 2021. We saw what happened in 2017. I remember, you know, like I didn't start my channel until 2019, but I remember watching your channel in 2018, and, you know, I mean, the top had the top was December of the prior year for Bitcoin. So, I just want people to be aware that like, you know, history might repeat itself. And my guess is that 2026, especially the first half of 2026, ends up being a bearish time for for crypto. And I'm just basing it on all the prior midterm years. And I I guess it's just the curse of the midterm year: 2014, 2018, and 2022. I mean, they they've all been pretty bad years for crypto. And so, I'm thinking that it's it's going to be the same. So, I think if if if Bitcoin is going to go put in an all-time high, I think it needs to do so, uh, before the end of the year because after that, I think by 2026, it's more likely that the window is going to shift, and it's it's going to, um, not be favorable for crypto, at least for the first half of 2026. Maybe by the time Jerome Powell gets replaced with someone more dovish, maybe maybe things will change, but, um, let's kind of see it playing out.
Interesting. So, you're here to tell us that guys, watch out for the top. The top is coming relatively soon.
I think the top will be in the fourth quarter for Bitcoin. It might be later for for some alts, but I think for for Bitcoin, it it is going to be in the fourth quarter. I mean, remember in 2017, Bitcoin topped, and there were still some altcoins doing okay, um, even into 2018.
Altcoins topped in the very beginning of 2018, basically when I started my channel, a little bit before.
Right. Yeah. Like, I it's possible it's possible that that other things could maybe do well after after Bitcoin, but I think if you're just looking at Bitcoin, I have to assume that that this time's not different until proven otherwise.
It's a it's a great take, but let me just quickly get your, um, response to this: what if this time is different? Because you're looking at historical data, and you know, there's an argument to be made that, you know, the famous last words: "This time is different." And that it seems like we're in a rate-cutting cycle. Certainly, Trump, by the middle of next year, is going to put in another Fed chair, and they're going to want rates even lower. Not to mention that the government shutdown is going to end, and when that happens within the next couple of months, the Market Structure Bill, the Clarity Act, will pass. This is huge bipartisan regulation for the industry. And then just like the the ETF adoption, the Wall Street adoption, BlackRock, uh, you know, now, you know, we have Bitcoin companies in the S&P 500. Does any of that kind of make you think that, um, this time might be different?
Look, I mean, you bring up an excellent point because to some degree, no one knows what's going to happen in the market. Like, not a single person has any idea what's actually going to happen. We're all just guessing. It's all just dubious speculation at the end of the day. Um, so, yeah. I mean, like, I I'm open-minded to it it playing out differently. I mean, one of the things that I always do is I always hold some Bitcoin. Even in the midterm years, even if I'm convinced we're in a bear market, I always hold some, just an acknowledgment that I'm wrong. But I I would, you know, I would push back a little bit against the narratives because, like, think about all the narratives we could have said there was back in January. And again, Bitcoin really hasn't moved a whole lot. I mean, back then, remember like everyone was talking about like the, well, the M2, the Bitcoin and M2 chart, and and why Bitcoin was going to go to 150K in the summer or 180K in the summer, and like, I mean, that narrative died. Um, there were, you know, the Gary Gensler resigning, that was supposed to be bullish for the asset class, but really what what ended up happening is everyone just launched memecoins, and it it kind of stole the thunder away from the cryptoverse for a while. But fundamentally, that I think that was bullish. Like, maybe not in the short term, but like, over time, that's going to be bullish.
Over the long term, it is. So you could say that everything you just said is fundamentally bullish, but it doesn't mean it's going to have an effect in 2026. It maybe it has an effect in 2027. Maybe it has an effect next cycle, you know, and and you could argue there there's actually there's actually a strong case to be made that next cycle might end up being what people thought this cycle was going to be, right? Because like, if with with crypto, it's like we we we rotate each cycle. So this cycle was like the 2017 cycle in a lot of ways. And actually, let me share my screen if you don't mind, if we have time.
Please.
Yeah. So, if you look at at one of the things about this cycle is that volatility has been really low, right? Like, there hasn't been a lot of volatility in either direction. Also, before we before we get into volatility, I do want to say to the audience, if anybody wants access to all of these charts that Ben Cowan is sharing today, I'm going to have a link how you can, you know, pay to see his charts below. Continue, Ben.
Sounds good. Yeah. So, this is the number of days since Bitcoin dropped 50%. Right. We're currently at 1,085 days. This cycle looks nothing like last cycle, when we had 50% drops fairly frequently. We had one in 2021, we had one in 2019. So, 50% drops last cycle were really common. But in the cycle before that, they were not at all. But if you go the cycle before that, they were common again. So, to some degree, like, it seems like every other cycle is the same. But then like, if if you go through one cycle and you expect the next cycle to be the same, it's usually not. It's usually more like the cycle before it, right? So this cycle looks a lot like the 2016-2017 cycle structurally. Another thing to look at, by the way, to to kind of show a similarity with this idea, is if you look at the ROI after the halving, in the first after the first halving, Bitcoin did not go below the price from the halving, right? Like, it it was only up after the halving, which is similar to cycle three. So, last cycle, because after the halving in, um, in 2020, Bitcoin did not go below the halving price. But if you look at cycle two, we did go below the halving price almost immediately. And that's exactly what happened in cycle four, the current cycle. So, you could argue that like, we skip cycles in terms of like what people think's going to happen. Like, everyone thinks it's going to play out like last cycle, where you had these 50% drops and people were getting rinsed out, but it's actually been a really boring cycle where Bitcoin just slowly goes up and it leaves everything else behind. So, what I'm what I meant is is earlier, you know, the a lot of people thought that this cycle that that altcoins were going to give oversized gains and that and that Bitcoin wasn't going to go anywhere or it wasn't going to do much of anything. Like, it might go up some, but why buy Bitcoin? The the general idea that people had was like, why buy Bitcoin if you can get a 100x in an altcoin? But a lot of altcoins did not go up much at all. You could argue that if they bring in someone to replace Jerome Powell that's a lot more dovish, like a lot more dovish, that might actually lead to altcoins then outperforming Bitcoin for a while. Now, if that happens, and then Bitcoin dominance ends up falling off a cliff, that could then, you know, that could set up a pretty nasty bear market. But as we know, like the the the deepest, the hardest bear markets occur from low Bitcoin dominance levels, right? When like Bitcoin dominance is at like 35%, 40%, that's where those really painful bear markets come from. And the way that you get to low Bitcoin dominance levels is to essentially have extremely loose monetary policy that allows people to speculate on riskier and riskier things. So, you could argue that what Powell has done has kept inflation from coming back. I mean, it's at, you know, it's still at 3%, but it's not at like 9%. But if next cycle, if if in 2026, they replace Powell with some a lot more dovish and they lower rates, they turn on the money printers, it could lead to altcoins doing better against Bitcoin in the next cycle. But that could also usher in say, like, another wave of inflation, uh, and then we end up, you know, getting a, you know, a pretty brutal bear market whenever whenever that occurs. So, I I think again, I think the idea though is that like, don't look at what happened last cycle always to figure out what's going to happen. You have to look back at other cycles and and recognize that a lot of times the market will will surprise you and it'll do something different than than what recency bias would would tell you.
Just to get your your final thoughts on Bitcoin, and then we're going to ask you an altcoin question, and we'll we'll wrap it up because I know my audience's time is valuable, and your time is valuable too. Ben, thank you for being here. Um, do you think Bitcoin, like, just a a gut check, just a speculation, do you think Bitcoin gets to $500,000 by, uh, 2031, if you had to guess?
Um, 2031. So,
I'm giving you six years.
Six years. So that's basically a cycle and a half, right? Because 2029 would be the next cycle. You said 2031?
Or if you want to modify the time, let me know.
I'm trying trying to get your thoughts on like, kind of
No, I'm thinking so. So So if we go peak to peak, last cycle was a three and a halfx, right? 20K to like 70K. This cycle, I don't know where Bitcoin, I mean, maybe the top's in, but if it's not in, maybe we can go to like 140K or something, 150, who knows? If but if it does that, you're you're essentially looking at like a 2x. Um, it's going to be harder and harder. Like, I'm not saying it can't do it, but I I it would seem like you're going to need more cycles or you're going to need a massive reset that completely, you know, changes the market, right?
So, by 2031, or 20, whatever you want?
You think Bitcoin gets to what, what price?
I put out a video in 2019, and I'm going to stick to this rather than answer your question. And I'm going to be like a politician and answer a different question. Um, I put out a video in 2019. It was either 2019 or 2020, and I said Bitcoin will go to a million, but it's going to take until 2041. So, I don't know exactly when it's going to get to 500K, but my guess is that it can reach a million by 2041.
Appreciate that thought. Keeping it real. That's why we have you on. And then my final question for you, uh, Benjamin, is give me your thought. We talked about, you know, the altcoin market kind of generally, but, you know, I I saw a tweet, um, not too, uh, long ago, where it seemed like you were bullish on Ethereum in the short term. But what is your, kind of thoughts? Are you, are you, are you bullish on Ethereum looking forward generally? Have you given up on Cardano? What do you think about Solana? Do you have any thoughts on those three top cryptos?
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, with Ethereum, I mean, I I think I went on your channel a thou, like, I don't know how many times, five times, talking about Ethereum going home. Um, and then it finally did.
So, I I basically flipped bullish on it when it went home. Not because the, I mean, it was mainly because I felt the Bitcoin valuation of Ethereum had found its low for the cycle, right? So, that was when I flipped bullish on it. My forecast was that it was going to go to an all-time high, sweep it, get a 30% drop to the 20-week SMA, and then rally up to a new all-time high. I don't I don't know that it's going to happen right this second. If it follows 2017, you can see Ethereum didn't really start moving until like mid to late November. So, it could still take some time. But I would argue that that my base case for Ethereum, and I I mean, I I would change my mind if Bitcoin had weekly closes below 100K, but my base case for Ethereum is that you get one more rally to an all-time high that kind of like ends the market cycle. And then after that rally, whatever the top ends up being, you then go down into into 2026. That's how I think this is going to play out. So, one more rally, right? So, so you basically get your your third wave. You have your your first move up and then a pullback. Your second move up and then a pullback. And then you get your third and final move up and then a pullback into 2026. And the range on that, like, and I've said this on my own channel, so I'll just kind of repeat it. The range on that, if my view is correct, then I would assume that, you know, $5,300 is possible as sort of like a conservative target, and it's possible under like the best-case scenario, you could see Ethereum going up to like 6 or 7,000. Uh, but regardless of where where the top is, whether it's 5K, 6K, or 7K, I think it's going to drop a lot in 2026. Uh, so I do want to pe I do want to sort of caution people about that and and just to kind of, um, provide, you know, some piece of supporting evidence for those for those ideas. If you look at like the ETH/Bitcoin pair, and you you look to see kind of how far ETH/Bitcoin retraced last cycle, it went to that 0.5 fib extension. So, if you do the same thing again, and we just assume that it's like basically having these like dead cat bounces for for lack of a better word, where it just keeps on putting in lower highs. If it goes back up to that 0.5 level, that would correspond to an ETH/Bitcoin valuation of 0.053. What's interesting about 0.053 is that's exactly where the low for ETH was against Bitcoin just before the merge rally. So, what I think is going to happen is I I think, you know, you have this first move, you have the second move, and then you have your third and final move, and then that kind of ends the market cycle. Um, that's kind of how I see it playing out for Ethereum. For Solana, I I've often said I think it's just the the it looks to me like ETH/Bitcoin just delayed, right? Because and again, one way to look at this is not to look at the, um, the price ratios, but to look at the market cap ratios. And if you look at SOL/Bitcoin, you can see that, you know, you could you could argue that it's an oscillator, right? And anytime it goes up to 0.07, that's the top. And then, you know, it's time to get bullish on it when it goes to 0.01. And the problem is that it already went up to 0.07, right? And so it's it's likely going to trend down. That doesn't mean it can't like pop up one more time into like sort of like a secondary distribution phase. If you look at ETH/Bitcoin market cap ratio, that's what it did, right? Like, there was it went up to these high levels and then dropped, and then went up one more time, and then ultimately it came back down to the lows. And remember back in 2022 and 2023, good luck convincing people that the Ethereum valuation was going to do that, right? Good luck. it was like impossible to convince people that that's how it was going to play out. But it it actually happened regardless. And what I would what I would sort of show people is that if you look at the ETH/Bitcoin valuation, like the price valuation, and you take a, um, let's take a bar pattern from this and then overlay it over, uh, SOL/Bitcoin. So, we're going to take a bar pattern from from the highs all the way out to today. Okay? And and we can try to like match that up as as best we can. So, we're going to copy that and we're going to take it over to the SOL/Bitcoin chart. And when you when you paste it, and you just kind of like line it up, it it doesn't look that different, right? Like, it looks really similar. You have, you know, you have a a double bottom. I mean, it's hard to get it like perfectly lined up, but you can see you have this 90% drop, and then you have a double bottom, and then you have this like secondary distribution phase that ultimately comes back down.
So, that's what I think.
It might go a little higher in the next, you know, one to three months, but you're looking for it to drop next year.
Yeah, I think if it's going to go higher at all, it'll happen, you know, before mid-January because after that, I feel like you have to be bearish on it because I I just I think it it'll likely drop, uh, into into 2026. I think it is following that ETH/Bitcoin blueprint. Now, I mean, look, in the short term, again, it it still doesn't have to be done with yet. If Bitcoin goes up, one of the things we've seen, if you're cheering for Bitcoin USD to go up, Solana is actually one of the few coins where the SOL/Bitcoin ratio goes up sometimes even as Bitcoin dominance goes up. That's actually one of the few that tends to that tends to outperform Bitcoin even in a Bitcoin dominance uptrend this cycle. So, even the last few weeks, right, like Bitcoin dominance is up several weeks in a row, and so Bitcoin has also been going up several weeks in a row. So, if you're betting on a new all-time high for Bitcoin and you want to sort of extrapolate prior SOL/Bitcoin moves, that actually might be bullish for SOL/Bitcoin, even if Bitcoin dominance goes up. So, I'm not talking about your alts, you know, what I often say is like, there's the collective altcoin market, but there's sort of individual altcoins that that behave differently. But, so, yeah, like, I I do think SOL/Bitcoin, if it's going to go up, it has about two to three more months to do so. But after that, I think all bets are off, and you have to be, you know, at that point, I would I would completely flip bearish on it and assume that it's going to be dropping, you know, like way back down here by the end of of 2026. I mean, this is exactly what what played out for for the ETH/Bitcoin pair, and I just I don't really see how or why it would be different, um, for Solana. Um, and then what was the other one you asked about?
Cardano. I mean, I can only imagine Cardano is even more bleak than Solana.
Thing about Cardano. I mean, I, you know, I How many times did I go on your channel telling people it was going to go to 400 sats? Do you remember that? Um,
I mean, a little bit. Yeah.
Yeah. What's funny is I was I was, you know, it it went to 260, all
You know. Um, so again, like, this is this is the argument that like, you could argue that like, maybe maybe it's it's just kind of like testing that level way over there. But the problem is that, you know, a lot of people just hold on to these altcoins for four years, waiting for a rally, and then they require an alt season just to break even. Um, and that's why, you know, just kind of sticking with Bitcoin is the better is the better way to go. I think the the hard part for Cardano for me is that I'm not saying it can't rally. I mean, there's always a chance that it it, you know, it can see a move up before this cycle's over. The hard part that I have with ADA is the ETH valuation, right? Like the ETH valuation of ADA just continues to be a macro downtrend, you know, and again, this is not I'm not saying this is like what I want it to be or what it, you know, what I think it should be. It's just this is what it is, and I don't control what it is. And, you know, I've been looking at this chart on my channel since 2019, and it just continues to be a downward channel, right? That doesn't mean it's not going to occasionally go up, but is it a macro trade? Probably not. I mean, I think the only thing you can be I think the only macro trade in crypto is Bitcoin because time and time again has proven that altcoins come and go, and and there's no guarantee that any altcoin will ever go to a new all-time high, even though Bitcoin does tend to eventually make it, um, to all-time highs. So, the the the chart I'm having a hard time right now with ADA is actually its ETH valuation because not only is it underperforming Bitcoin, but it's also underperforming Ethereum, right? And so it it continues to to make the justification for for taking that on, you know, like why why get super optimistic about it on its ETH pair if it if it just keeps on bleeding for the last since 2017, right? Like since 2017, and we're we're eight years later, and it's still putting in lower highs and lower lows on its ETH pair. So I mean, at what point do we say this is how it's always going to be? You know?
You keep things real, Ben. Appreciate you coming on. Final thoughts you'd like to give the Altcoin Daily audience, and please plug your, um, your charts.
Yeah, I mean, I like I would just say, I would say that there there's a lot of indicators that people have created that haven't really gone off that would suggest the top is in. Um, so I think there's still reason to hope that some of those go off, but I would say this: If they have not gone off by the end of the year, then they're probably not going to, at least not for a while. Because I think once you get into 2026, I think as as Jerome Powell's tenure comes to an end, I think he's going to be really reluctant to lower rates too much. And so it's going to be a headwind, uh, for for risk assets like crypto. So, you know, it's possible that people get what they want, but it might not happen. It might happen like later, you know, than they want. Again, as I said before, usually cycles kind of skip a cycle in terms of what's really moving. So, this cycle was basically a Bitcoin-only cycle. Next cycle could be different. So, the thing I would say is that I don't know why I have the ADA chart up as I'm saying all this. Um, but I guess to summarize is, you know, be open-minded to to the cycle continuing higher before the year is over. But if you get weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, it's likely over. And by the end of the year, I think it makes sense to to to to assume that 2026 will be a down year. And then maybe by mid-2026, we can start looking at at the bullish case again after after kind of like a nice reset for the first half of 2026. That's at least what I I think is going to happen. I could be wrong, but that's how I think it's going to play out. Guys, check out Ben's YouTube channel linked below, Twitter linked below, and a perfect Christmas gift this year, possibly, uh, Ben's charts and indicators. And if you want access to that, also linked below. Ben, thank you for coming on today.
Thanks, Tammy.