Transcription
Well, we definitely held and we're holding that level even though the put wall moved. So, right under there, that's 735. That's our new put wall. We seem to be holding it in here. We've tested that area 1, 2, 3, four times right now and we're holding it.
The problem obviously is the following. You are still below your 55. And I've seen good before. It doesn't really look like this. 12's pointing down, 22 is flat, and you're below the 55. Those places of convergence you always want to pay attention to. You can see it right here where they all converged as well. And that whole area tends to become a resistance. So the sooner you can get over there, you saw it on the NASDAQ. So the sooner you can get through all that, the better. Something like 750 would be fantastic, but we're going to have to see how this plays out.
You had a ton of earnings tonight. I want to go through that, but there's some other technical stuff we should really look at. Those traders are reacting to the institutional levels. What we're trying to get you to do here is to know what they're doing ahead of time. Subscribe, click all notifications. What we go over here is timely by hitting the bell. You don't get it after retail is already in. The important thing is you get the information, education that you need. Subscribe. Let's get to it.
So, we can see that the drop here, it's still not much. I think we're 2 and a half% off the high. It's it's it's hardly anything. The problem is everybody's in the same trades. Everybody's in tech. So, when tech gets killed, this is what you get. I will say this because I think it's important. If you look at financials and going into an FOMC meeting tomorrow where there's a 38% chance of a rate hike, you usually do not blow up with financials breaking out. In other words, you usually don't have a massive recession or a massive correction in the S&P if financials are hitting all-time highs. So that is the one conundrum. So what you really have is really the risk-off trade in semiconductors in the AI trade. That's really what we're dealing with.
So that's going to lead us to focusing on the cues. And I don't think that this is any great mystery. This is the 55, the 22 and the 12. So now the 22 and the the 12 are below obviously the 55 which is bearish as we all know. And you need to start getting above these, but this is technically getting worse as this weighs on you, not better. What we're looking for is some exhaustive selling. We didn't really get that today. We got some selling, but it's far from this exhaustive that we had in the past. And I think that's really what we're looking for or maybe some huge buyers coming in. But once again, we're not really seeing that either.
So we have our clear demarcation line right there at the top, which I believe is the 685. Now, they moved the put wall down to 680. And this part is important and I do want to get into the earnings and I want to get this out for you guys early. So unedited and roll as we do. So we're going to go to 680 for a second. We're just going to watch the put wall right here. And you can see that we had that battle yesterday, broke, got up there today and right when we got to the bond auction at 1:00, that marked the high. We had a bond auction today at 1 and after that we never could get any higher. So that put wall right now is resistance. 680 as resistance. Then we have to go into tomorrow and see what we're dealing with.
So these videos lately have been more tactical, i.e. short-term. They're not always this short-term, but this is the hand that we're dealt right now. So we have to play the hand that we're dealt. We can't want to we can't play another hand. This is what we have. So, but there are some things here that are shaping up to me that are getting interesting.
So, the RSI is starting to bonk along in this right here. But let's take off the pre and the post for a second. We'll go to regular. And I think that this is important because we have undercut here. If we see that and you are starting to lift on the RSI. So, does that mean that we're going to get this immediate move? I I don't know how this is going to go and none of us do. But here's what I would say. I do think that if I clean all this off, I do think it's interesting that you're getting down this oversold going into the Fed meeting. I think it's important to note that I think it's worth our time to pay attention to that. We can all see this huge divergence that's just floating around out here that caused all that panic or you know the panic was caused and therefore the divergence. But now that you're oversold, like completely utterly oversold down here, that's what I'd be paying attention to, right? And so when we see that, we just want to note it and we want to watch that 685. And I think that's really important for us to to pay attention to.
Now, the Fed meeting tomorrow, it's going to be wild. You have Meta and Microsoft tomorrow, and that's going to be wild. And tonight's earnings did not go the way people thought they were going to go. Even though you're seeing the socks flat, and it's really pretty violent after hours. Again, you're oversold here. And I do think there's something to that. And the reason we're so focused on the socks is because that's what's driving everything. If we take a look at the low right here, can never get a magnet when you need one. And we take a look at that right here. We can see that level and again that is going to get you to that 48050 and then you come and take a look here and that got you to that 477. So what what didn't I get? I didn't get an undercut. I would like to have had an undercut. And just to be like really clear about this, if we take a look from the past 3 days, meaning from Friday on and you just look at what you've dealt with, you're down 12% from Friday. So Friday, Monday, Tuesday, 12%. It's a lot in three days. So to think that you can get some kind of bounce, you could.
Now, you have some names coming out with earnings tonight around 800 PM that you usually don't get. One of them is going to be SKH Heinix. I don't know how this goes. I, you know, I know that they can sell stock tomorrow um in South Korea because they'll be out of their blackout period. Now, whether they want to sell because the ADR is here, I don't know. I again, I I don't have a crystal ball, but I would be real careful here. The earnings are going to be blowout. The question just becomes, are they blowout enough? Do they raise enough to keep this? And if not, then that's going to be another nail in the coffin because I'll show you what the first one is.
Now, after hours, you're seeing Micron. And I want to show you after hours so you can see what's going on. You ripped here and you're ripping because of Seagate. And Seagate absolutely crushed. And we will get to some of these numbers and I'll read them out what I think are the important parts. But you are moving now. You did hold 800 that 800 level today. And I again, super important that we undercut it and it really looked like you were going to dive down and that was really the end of it. But what did you do? You just kind of came in here and stayed down there for about 10, 15 minutes. Scared the be Jesus out of everybody and then you ripped back over it. To me, I think selling puts makes the most sense here if you're trying to be long because they're so expensive. But, you know, not everybody wants to wake up and, you know, get a new gift in the morning if you got down 50 or 100 points like you've been doing. I do think the volatility is getting excessive as well. And that's another sign that when you get this extreme where every day is down, you know, eight or nine%, that's usually the tail end of something. It doesn't mean that you go up, but it does mean that it's just not realistic. In other words, if you're dropping 7, 8% a day, don't worry about it. You only have 8 days left before you're at zero, so everything's fine. But for me, looking at this, I think it's super interesting that you held. And the undercut, I really like the fact that you got one here today.
Now, if you take a look at Micron here on the 4 hour, you can see that you're undercut here and here. Now, let's get rid of the pre and the post and go to regular and you'll see that you don't have it there. Right? So, on the on the extended you have it here, you don't have it yet. I would focus on this and see what happens with highix tomorrow and do we finally get that big flush out and then go into the Fed meeting and Meta and Microsoft tomorrow and then what does that give us and I think that's what you have to focus on.
So you have what's going on with Microsoft after hours. Same thing happened with SanDisk where we saw these names rally on the news. So let's get to some of this news so that you're prepped for it. So SanDisk is up about 50 bucks after hours. This is what you were dealing with. Let's go back to the pre and the post now so that you can see it. You ran all the way up to 8:30. Please understand that I am doing these without the conference call.
Now if we look at Seagate here, let me just blow this up so that you can see this. So you're looking at 571 the estimate was 508 revenues 363 versus 349 margins 446 versus 41 no matter how you cut it they crushed C's 4 to 42 the estimate was 397 got cut off here but on every metric you beat and the stocks acting accordingly to that again we don't have the conference call yet but you you really couldn't have asked for anything better what the stock does tomorrow what it does on the conference call as they guide forward remains to be seen but it did have a favorable effect on the market. Clearly, it also had a favorable effect on Western Digital because they shared the same brain. But there's some more going on after hours.
But wait, there's more. And to be clear, before we're even over anything that any institution is going to get giddy about, you still have to get over this 55, which is around that 8.81. And I think that's worth mentioning. So, while this is good, do they use this as a reason to sell tomorrow? We will find out together tomorrow. Right now, this is what we have. And this is the best that you could hope for to make your hand better. If you're wrong, you'd want something like this. I mean, it was it was excellent. W the best one of all of them. I didn't think it would be a car company, but it was Ford. And we'll get to it.
Now, Ford's up about a dollar and we got up to about 16 and a half. But this was just an absolute unequivocal blowout. Let me see if I can grab this and put this somewhere so that you can see it. It might tell me that it's it's too big. That's what it's saying. All right. So, let's figure out how we're going to do this together. And I can do it this way. And you're just going to have to deal with the raw and unedited. That's all I can do. I can only do so much. All right, cool. Ford 42 versus 36. Ford blue revenue 261 versus 21. Ford Eba 114 estimate. So they're they're just crushing across the board. It's like every single metric. This Ford Model E rev. Um I don't think people really like the E-cars, but you know, I'll probably get a bunch of comments on that. Whatever. Uh but the adjusted Ebida use 85, 105. Look at the look at that. Look at these numbers. Look at it. Like they're huge. They're literally huge. Free cash flow, they're jumping by a billion dollars on the estimate. So, and it's just across the board. It's like it's literally everything. Uh Model E, Ebida loss 4 billion, losing money on EVs. Who would have thought? Capex 95 to 105 estimate. So, capex is a little higher, but this to me was just an absolute blowout for our car company. And I don't think anybody expected it whatsoever. Uh the volume was just absolutely insane today and it just absolutely exploded. So be really interesting to see how that acts tomorrow. But this was the best one after hours in my opinion looking at this. The Seagate was really good. The Boeing as well was really good. And so was let's start here. Let's go back to this. The the be you know what? Let's just mix it up. Let's let's do KAC first because you're down about 20 bucks. Um and nobody saw this coming. Everyone thought capex would be way higher because they're all those capital expenditures companies and they're not. So if we take a look at this, I'll show you after hours. So dollar five revs 366 versus the estimate, but gross margins are down. Capex was down adjusted 106 to 126 38 to 42 estimate 394. You can't have a lower estimate here. This is there's a couple things here, but I'm giving you the highlights. They did the same thing on earnings. They lowered the earnings to lower than the average. So if your lower end is lower than the estimate, I was going to say this again. If your lower end is lower than the estimate, you're going to have a problem, especially in this market. And this is what we saw actually today with a couple names. We saw the same exact thing with Corning. You can't have a lower end. And that's why you gap down like this where that leads. So after hours, as soon as people saw that, we actually shorted this uh in the community at like immediately when we sold. So when we were doing earnings, you see the time stamp, but KC in line, short some uh SDX crushed, no position, but it was really good cuz I was too busy shorting this and it just fell right off a cliff. You can't have numbers like that and have that happen. Um the STX was really good. It definitely was. But and then I just scaled it out of the KAC as it just kept filling down because you never know what happens on the conference calls and you know some people want to ride that out. But you can see the SOXL got absolutely smoked on that number. Um and then since then you're starting to come back a little bit because you have SKHix tonight at 8:00. But this is not what you'd want to see if you were long AAT. It's certainly not what you're going to want to see if you're long lamb. Uh ASML probably came in as well. Um you know that's kind of got beaten up today in the past two days pretty hard. But the KAC quarter is not really what you want to see. It's not it's not a good quarter. I mean, there's no way for me to like put lipstick on this pig from a semiconductor standpoint and thinking that the Capital X like the capex names are going to be the next leaders. Yeah, that pretty much got kaibos tonight and I don't see that anymore from what I just don't I'm really surprised by that number. It's not a good number and it shows that these numbers that Intel are talking about are just not in any size, shape, or form in any kind of buildout yet. Doesn't mean that they can't be later. It just means that right now in this moment, they're not.
So, we can only play the hand again that we're dealt, not the one that we want. And so, when we see this, we just want to stay out of the way. 170, I believe, is your put. Uh maybe maybe you'll hold that. It was 224, but you know, you went through like a hot knife through butter recently. So, you have some some people at that 170 level. You had a ton at 174. Um and you're trying to hold that. You really are. But really, 170 is more of a key level. So watch that. I think it's super important for tomorrow.
Bloom Energy 58 cents versus 40 cents. Absolute just crushed revenues crushed. Evida crushed. I mean it's across the board. So and the guide was really this is what you're looking for. So if you want to see the difference between the guide of this and KAC see this estimate right here 374. See how you're at 39. See how the low end of the guide is higher than the estimate. That's what you're looking for. Gross margins. Obviously you want up. People always ask about fundamentals. That's a key trigger right there. Um, and then you're up 11% after hours, but you're already back down, I think about 10% time recording this. Um, you got up to 190. If you take a look at this after hours, you can see that level. And of course, when you're trading this stuff after hours, you always just want to mark those off and then just watch how it goes with the conference call. And then, of course, wouldn't hurt you to just kind of drop a VWAP there and see how it goes. You have a lot of damage on this chart. A lot. But is this an area where it could start to build and base? It's a great quarter. It's really hard to look at that quarter and if you liked it at 360 and you're crushing and your earnings are better and guided higher than you did here, you know, there are this that is the stool. I mean, you have to start looking at the fundamentals. This definitely would be something I'd be interested in now. It's just a function of how do we hold? Do they use this as a reason to get out? You know, how far down do we come? And that that I don't have the answer to and we're going to find out together. I love when we can do stuff together.
So, what do I think? I think overall you had a really good quarter so far with earnings. I don't think that they were were terrible in any stretch. Pterodine I haven't read yet. I did look at it. They did beat it did seem like a good guide. You are up about 40 bucks, but I was recording this versus reading that right now. And I would say that that could help us as well. The next big thing for us right now is to get through tonight and 8:00 tonight. We want to just watch SKHY and we really want to see what happens with the South Korean stock market. um you know this 145 was that level.
Look, it is impossible for me to look at these charts and say everything's fine. Nothing to see here. It's just not possible. It's not possible to sit here and say, "Oh, this is it. This is the bottom." You're not going to know until it is. What do I see that's interesting? I think it's interesting that you couldn't stay below the 800 putt wall there. I do find that interesting. I think it's super important to note that you're not closing below that level. So, if we don't lose the majors, and this also was interesting to me as well, the extreme panic that we started to see in SanDisk today, finally started to see some extreme panic with the name and you're back to where you closed last quarter. I do think that's important. Does that mean that oh, that's it? No. But realize that, you know, from 1100 to 600, you know, it's 400 points. So, like if you get a bounce here and you start bouncing back up to that 1,700 level, like just just so we're clear about something because I think people are getting a little twisted, you know, that's a 60% 56% move. If you get back up and retest that 55, like that's not the worst thing in the world.
If we got flushed out tomorrow and you come in and you see some kind of bounce, and if we look here, again, I'm using the pre and the post. If I take that out for a second, you're under. Now, historically, since this started, when we've gotten down here, if we've used that as a metric, since this started, it's only happened a couple times. It's a not a bad it's I don't know where that accent's coming from. It's a not a bad spot, but it's not a bad spot to take a look at this. And again, it might take a day or two. It might take to the Fed and then we have to see what happens with the Fed. And he is giving a speech tomorrow. So, he said he was not always going to give a speech, but you have a 38% chance of a rate hike. And if he doesn't hike tomorrow, maybe he wants to explain why. Uh, from everything I read, it seems more like a coin toss than that 38%. But we'll see how this is going to go.
And then you come into the next, as we can only refer to it, suck salad, which is Meta tomorrow night and then Microsoft tomorrow night. And they are going to be watched closely, especially on the capex side. If their capex guides higher like you saw with Google, then we're going to get a Google kind of move. The larger issue for me is does that capex affect their free cash flow? And if it does, then these names are going to have problems. Very similar to what we've seen with Meta and we're not really seeing that, you know, emphatic bottom being put in.
I would say this, and I'll leave you with this because I think it's important. I did see a couple things that I thought were very interesting today. For the first time with SpaceX, if you go and take a look at this, if I drop it here like it's hot, and my son swears the kids still say that. He's just making fun of me. One or the other. But we're going to go that he says that. So you are closing above the five and it's barely there but you are closing above the five and I do think that that's important for us to note. So you are seeing some some signs of that. I also thought it was interesting that Amjen did this today and broke out. So it's not like you're it's not doom and gloom as much as we have to get through the semiconductor you know fervor and wash those people all out and get rid of them. Fundamentally are we seeing problems? It's a good question. I don't know where the accent's coming from. I apologize. I'm not seeing problems on storage and memory. I'll tell you where I saw a problem tonight on the capex side. That's a problem. I've seen a problem before. That's what it looks like.