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GOOD MORNING. IT'S 10:00 EASTERN, 7 A.M. PACIFIC. I'M ANA CABRERA, REPORTING FROM NEW YORK.
MADE IT TO FRIDAY. AND WE BEGIN WITH BREAKING NEWS.
>> THE ECONOMY. A NEW JOBS REPORT IS IN.
>> ADDING 177,000 JOBS IN APRIL. THAT'S ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, BUT DOWN SHARPLY FROM MARCH. SO A MIXED BAG, ESPECIALLY AS WE TRACK OTHER FRESH ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS, MUCH TO DO WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS.
GM LOWERING ITS 2025 OUTLOOK. EXPECTING A $5 BILLION TARIFF HIT. MCDONALD'S REPORTING SALES CRATERED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2020. MICROSOFT UNVEILING MAJOR PRICE INCREASES ON ALL XBOX CONSOLES AND GAMES. AND AS OF TODAY, SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO PAY AN IMPORT FEE ON CHEAP ONLINE GOODS PLUS TOMORROW, THE AUTO TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT. WE'LL EXPLAIN WHY YOU MAY END UP PAYING MORE EVEN IF YOU ALREADY OWN A CAR. LET'S BREAK IT ALL DOWN WITH NBC NEWS WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT YAMICHE ALCINDOR IN WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA, WITH THE PRESIDENT.
NBC NEWS SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT CHRISTINE ROMANS HERE IN NEW YORK. AND AXIOS CHIEF ECONOMIC CORRESPONDENT NEIL IRWIN. OKAY, CHRISTINE.
>> TAKE US THROUGH THIS JOBS REPORT.
>> GOOD NUMBERS ALL AROUND. CAN THIS RATE OF HIRING CONTINUE AND MAYBE CUSHION THE IMPACTS OF THE TARIFFS?
>> LOOK, THE JOB MARKET IS RESILIENT. AND YOU KNOW, WE ENDED LAST YEAR AND CAME INTO THIS YEAR WITH A STRONG LABOR MARKET COOLING, BUT STILL STRONG. SO I THINK THAT'S GOOD NEWS CONSIDERING ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IS AHEAD HERE. AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 4.2% THAT IS NEAR HISTORIC LOWS. YOU LOOK UNDER THE HOOD HERE. YOU CAN SEE HEALTH CARE HIRING A LOT. YOU CAN SEE WAREHOUSES HIRING. I WONDER WHY. BECAUSE COMPANIES HAVE BEEN PULLING FORWARD A LOT OF THEIR PURCHASES OF GOODS BEFORE TARIFFS. AND THEN YOU LOOK IN. YOU LOOK ALSO IN THESE NUMBERS IN FEDERAL WORKERS, YOU SEE 9000 FEDERAL WORKERS LOST JOBS THIS YEAR. ABOUT 26,000. THAT'S PROBABLY AN UNDERCOUNT. AND HERE'S WHY. THE GOVERNMENT, EVEN IN THIS NOTICE, SAYS IF YOU'RE FURLOUGHED OR YOU'RE STILL GETTING A PAYCHECK, YOU'RE STILL COUNTED AS EMPLOYED. SO A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE WITH BUYOUTS ARE JUST NOT IN THESE NUMBERS YET. SO THIS IS A SOLID POSITION TO START FROM WITH A LOT OF TARIFF UNCERTAINTY HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
>> YAMICHE, WHAT'S THE FRAMING FROM THE WHITE HOUSE ON THESE NUMBERS?
>> WELL, THE WHITE HOUSE IS REALLY LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS AND SAYING THAT THEY'RE A BOOM FOR THE ECONOMY, EVEN IF THEY ARE LOWER THAN LAST MONTH, BUT THEY ARE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. SO THIS IS REALLY A WHITE HOUSE THAT IS TRYING ITS BEST TO COME UP WITH GOOD MESSAGING WHEN IT COMES TO THE ECONOMY, GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE'S SO MUCH FEAR OF A RECESSION BECAUSE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFF PLANS, AS CHAOTIC AS THEY MAY BE, AS WELL AS, OF COURSE, THIS ESCALATING TRADE WAR WITH COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA. SO THE WHITE HOUSE IS LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS AND SAYING, THIS IS EVIDENCE THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DOING THE RIGHT THING. IT'S STILL, OF COURSE, A BIG QUESTION, SORT OF WHAT THE FUTURE OF THIS ECONOMIC PLAN IS GOING TO BE AND WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PRESIDENT'S POLICIES ARE GOING TO BE.
>> NEIL, THE NEXT JOBS REPORT WILL REALLY BE THE FIRST ONE SURVEYING THE LANDSCAPE AFTER THE TRUMP TARIFFS. CAN THIS HIRING PACE BE SUSTAINED?
>> MAYBE FOR A WHILE. BUT YOU KNOW, THE TRUTH IS THE U.S. ECONOMY IS A SLOW MOVING TANKER SHIP. THESE THINGS DON'T TURN ON A DIME IF YOU'RE AN EMPLOYER. YOU KNOW, LIBERATION DAY, THE TARIFFS WERE ANNOUNCED ON APRIL 2ND. THE REFERENCE WEEK FOR THIS DATA WE GOT TODAY IS BASICALLY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL. BUT IT'S NOT AS IF YOU'RE GOING TO FIRE A BUNCH OF PEOPLE JUST BECAUSE OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT. IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE GOING TO SUSPEND HIRING. AND YOU KNOW, THE QUESTION IS, IS MAY SOON ENOUGH FOR THOSE EFFECTS TO START TO TAKE PLACE? MIGHT BE MORE OF A SUMMER STORY. AGAIN, SLOW MOVING THINGS. AND FOR THE ADMINISTRATION, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE THE SITUATION WHERE ANYTIME A GOOD NUMBER COMES OUT, THEY WANT TO SAY, THIS IS THE TRUMP ECONOMY. ANYTIME A BAD NUMBER COMES OUT LIKE THIS GDP NUMBER EARLIER IN THE WEEK, IT'S ALL THE BIDEN ECONOMY. SO THERE IS SOME KIND OF CHERRY PICKING GOING ON IN READING AND PARSING THIS DATA AS IT COMES IN.
SPEND SPEND SPEND. CHRISTINE.
>> TELL US ABOUT THIS LOOPHOLE THAT'S APPARENTLY CLOSED WHEN IT COMES TO CHEAPER GOODS AND THE IMPACT THIS COULD HAVE.
>> SO IF YOU BOUGHT ANYTHING ON SHEIN OR TEMU OR EVEN AMAZON HAUL, WHICH IS A REALLY LOW LOW COST GOODS PORTAL THAT IT HAS, THESE ARE ALLOWED BECAUSE OF SOMETHING CALLED A LOOPHOLE THAT COMPANIES WERE ALLOWED TO SEND THINGS JUST INDIVIDUAL PACKAGES WORTH LESS THAN $800 DIRECTLY TO AMERICAN CONSUMERS. SO THAT'S WHERE ALL THAT REALLY CHEAP STUFF CAME DIRECTLY FROM CHINESE FACTORIES. AND THEY CLOSED THAT. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CLOSED THAT LOOPHOLE, SAYING THAT IT WAS GOOD FOR AMERICAN SMALL BUSINESS. THAT THEY SHOULDN'T BE ABLE TO COMPETE WITH THAT REALLY CHEAP STUFF. SO YOU CAN SEE IF YOU GO TO THE WEBSITE, YOU CAN SEE THE IMPORT CHARGES PUT RIGHT NOW INTO YOUR CART. SO YOU CAN SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH THAT COSTS. SHEIN AND PRICES GOING UP. THEY ALL STARTED THAT ON FRIDAY, AND IT WAS ACTUALLY MIDNIGHT WHEN THAT LOOPHOLE WAS OFFICIALLY CLOSED. SO THOSE SUPER ULTRA LOW COST PRODUCTS, I'M TALKING A WHOLE SET OF SHEETS FOR $1.75, THOSE DAYS ARE OVER.
AND I LOOK AT THIS GRAPHIC HERE AND WE SEE A PRICE FOR SHORTS GOING UP LITERALLY MORE THAN DOUBLE BECAUSE OF THE IMPORT CHARGE. WHICH IS MORE THAN THE COST OF THE GOOD ITSELF. SAME THERE FOR IS THAT LIKE A HUMIDIFIER OR SOMETHING NEXT TO IT? EVEN A BLENDER? EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS DE MINIMIS WORLD. YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT 145% TARIFFS FROM CHINESE GOODS, I MEAN, THAT MEANS YOU KNOW, IF YOU BUY SOMETHING WORTH $100, YOU'RE PAYING $145 IN IMPORT PRICES. MAYBE NOT YOU PAYING ALL OF IT. BUT ALL ALONG THE FOOD CHAIN, THOSE PRICES ARE RISING. SO WE'LL BE SEEING THAT IN DAYS AND WEEKS AHEAD.
YAMICHE.
>> THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENTS I UNDERSTAND, IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ON TRADE TALKS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING JAPAN AND CHINA. WHERE DO THINGS STAND?
>> WELL, THIS HAS BEEN A REALLY INTERESTING AND CONFUSING SITUATION BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS MAINTAINED FOR A FEW DAYS AND WEEKS NOW THAT HE WAS NEGOTIATING WITH CHINA. BUT THE CHINESE OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN CLEAR THAT NO NEGOTIATIONS WERE HAPPENING. NOW WE HAVE NEW STATEMENTS OUT. SO THE CHINESE, THE CHINA'S MINISTRY OF COMMERCE SAYS THE U.S. HAS RECENTLY CONVEYED INFORMATION TO CHINA THROUGH RELEVANT CHANNELS EXPRESSING A DESIRE TO START NEGOTIATIONS. IF THE U.S. WANTS TO NEGOTIATE, IT SHOULD SHOW SINCERITY BY PREPARING TO TAKE ACTIONS AND CORRECTING ITS MISTAKES AND CANCELING THE UNILATERAL TARIFFS. SO THERE ARE THE CHINESE ESSENTIALLY SAYING, IF YOU WANT TO COME TO THE TABLE, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE SOME ACTIONS HERE. BUT THEN WE HAVE A NEW STATEMENT ALSO FROM THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL. THEY'RE SAYING WE ARE IN CONSTANT COMMUNICATION WITH CHINESE OFFICIALS THROUGH NORMAL DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS. AND I SHOULD TELL YOU, ONE OF THE THINGS I'VE BEEN ASKING THE WHITE HOUSE OVER AND OVER AGAIN IS WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE PRESIDENT OF CHINA SPOKE? BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID A NUMBER OF TIMES THAT HE'S SPOKEN TO THE PRESIDENT OF CHINA. AND WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT AFTER THESE TARIFFS WENT INTO PLACE, THESE TWO LEADERS HAVE NOT SPOKEN. SO THAT IS, THE CHINESE HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN THAT THE U.S. OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT VAGUE ON THAT. BUT NOW WE HAVE THESE NEW STATEMENTS SORT OF SAYING WHERE THINGS ARE RIGHT NOW.
AND, NEIL.
>> IN THE LATEST STATEMENT, CHINA SAYS THE U.S. MUST CANCEL TARIFFS TO START NEGOTIATIONS. ANY CHANCE YOU SEE THAT HAPPENING? WHAT ARE YOU HEARING?
>> YOU KNOW, IT'S HARD TO PARSE WHAT THE PRESIDENT'S GOING TO DO. YOU KNOW, THE TRADEMARK OF THIS ADMINISTRATION SO FAR HAS BEEN THE ACT OF SURPRISE AND KIND OF ERRATIC POLICYMAKING. SO COULD THEY BACK DOWN AND MAKE THAT A PRECURSOR TO ANY SERIOUS NEGOTIATION?
>> I WOULDN'T RULE IT OUT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE HAS TO BE SOME DE-ESCALATION ON SOME SIDE. EVERYBODY EVERYBODY NEEDS TO SAVE FACE. YOU KNOW, THIS IS KIND OF NEGOTIATING ONE ON ONE, ONE ON ONE. EVERYBODY HAS TO SAY THEY'RE THE WINNER, AND EVERYBODY NEEDS TO HELP THE OTHER PARTY FIND WAYS TO THAT. BOTH SIDES CAN SAY THAT THEY WON THE NEGOTIATION. AND SO WE NEED TO FIND SOME WAY FOR THIS DE-ESCALATION TO HAPPEN. AND THE LONGER WE HAVE THESE 145% TARIFFS ON CHINA, THE BIGGER THE ULTIMATE DISRUPTION WILL BE TO THE US ECONOMY. BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE RIGHT NOW INVENTORIES THAT ARE RUNNING THROUGH THAT WERE IMPORTED PRE-TARIFF. BUT THE LONGER THIS GOES, THE FEWER SHIPMENTS THAT ARE COMING FROM FROM OVERSEAS. THE MORE YOU MIGHT SEE SOME EMPTY STORE SHELVES. SOME PRICE INFLATION, THINGS LIKE THAT.
YEAH, WE'RE ALREADY IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF LIMBO AT THIS POINT WITH THESE TARIFFS ON CHINA.
CHRISTINE. AUTO TARIFFS TAKE EFFECT TOMORROW. WHAT'S THIS GOING TO MEAN FOR THE CAR PRICES AND WHEN ARE WE GOING TO FEEL IT?
>> SO IT WAS A LITTLE RELIEF FOR THE AUTO COMPANIES WHO WERE REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFFS. AND THEN FOREIGN CAR IMPORT TARIFFS AND THEN CAR PART IMPORT TARIFFS. IT'S A VERY COMPLICATED SUPPLY CHAIN AND THEY CAN'T BE CHANGED OVERNIGHT. IT WILL MEAN EVENTUALLY HIGHER PRICES FOR NEW CARS. WE'VE GOT ESTIMATES FROM EVERYWHERE FROM $2 TO $12,000 FOR THE COST OF A NEW CAR. IT WILL LIKELY MEAN HIGHER PRICES FOR YOUR INSURANCE. BECAUSE NOW TO REPAIR OR REPLACE YOUR CAR IN AN ACCIDENT, IT WILL COST MORE THAN IT DID BEFORE, SO YOU COULD EXPECT INSURANCE RATES TO RISE BY MAYBE $300 BY THE END OF THIS YEAR. SO WE'VE BEEN SEEING THESE NUMBERS TWEAKED FOR MONTHS BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE PRESIDENT'S TARIFFS. YOU KNOW, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CARVE OUTS, THERE HAVE BEEN DELAYS, THERE HAVE BEEN PAUSES AND RESUMPTIONS. AND SO NOW FINALLY THOSE AUTO IMPORT TARIFFS WILL GO, PARTS IMPORT TARIFFS WILL GO INTO EFFECT. AND THESE COMPANIES WILL HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO USE THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS TO TRY TO MINIMIZE THAT AS MUCH AS THEY CAN.
NEIL.
>> WHEN YOU TALK TO EXECUTIVES, INVESTORS, POLICYMAKERS, WHAT WORRIES THEM THE MOST RIGHT NOW IN THIS ECONOMIC MOMENT, DO THEY SEE ANY REASON FOR OPTIMISM?
>> LOOK, I THINK THE REASON FOR OPTIMISM IS ALWAYS THE ABILITY TO DE-ESCALATE. AND YOU KNOW, IF WE JUST HAVE A NEW KIND OF ACROSS THE BOARD TARIFF, 10%, THAT CAN BE KIND OF PARCELED OUT BETWEEN SUPPLIERS, THE, YOU KNOW, IMPORTERS AND CONSUMERS. AND IT'S NOT DISASTROUS IF IT'S STEADY, WHAT'S DISASTROUS AND WHAT'S PROBLEMATIC IS WHEN TARIFFS GO FROM 10% TO 20% TO 120% 145%. AND THOSE ARE LEVELS THAT REALLY SHUT DOWN COMMERCE AND THE ABILITY TO PLAN AND PREDICT AND PRICE. THAT'S WHAT'S HARD. AND SO, YOU KNOW, IT'S NOT THAT ANY TARIFF LEVEL IS DISASTROUS FOR THE ECONOMY. IT'S THAT THE ERRATIC NATURE OF THIS PATH HAS BEEN REALLY HARD TO PLAN AND, YOU KNOW, HARD TO INVEST, HARD TO HIRE.