Transcription
Nvidia earnings are on August 27th, this Wednesday, and I'm going to show you exactly what I'm doing to prepare for that. I'm also going to be talking about SoFi and HIMS and what I decided to do with those current positions. So, let's go ahead and jump into it.
Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary, but let's go ahead and check out the portfolio. As you can see, we are just kind of hovering around all-time highs. If you do want to see me hit my eight figure goal and want to follow along that journey, be sure to be subscribed by clicking the subscribe button down below. And if you get any value out of this video, please hit the thumbs up button and that would greatly help me and I would greatly appreciate that.
So, let's go ahead and dive into how we did today as well. Realize gain loss. I'll refresh this for you. Um, we closed out a big position on SoFi and I'm going to update you on exactly what I did there, but we hit 4.3K there. Um, obviously results vary month to month, but uh, this was definitely a nice day.
As you can see here in my private mastermind, Options Trading University, we now have 320 clients sharing their inspiration right here. As you can see today, um, this client sharing his inspiration um, on his SoFi position. U, a new client right here that just joined last week sharing some inspiration. And, uh, Richard with a very nice win. Um, I love seeing this. Obviously, results vary based off account size and risk tolerance, but um we love seeing these uh wins from clients.
Now, if you do want access to my trades, Ryan's trades and leaps, entries, and exits, that'll be at the top of the description down below. And I also do give away free trade ideas, which I'm going to be giving one away today on my Instagram and my free newsletter. You got to be subscribed to both. Those are both down below in the description.
So, let's go ahead and jump into the markets. As you can see, QQQ here, um, you know, making a nice little rebound from the drop that we had last week. And that drop was spurred by potentially Jerome Powell not cutting rates in September. But if we take a look at the CME Fed Watch tool, we can see that there's an 84% odds of getting a rate cut in September. So those odds drastically increased and that's going to be good for the markets going forward as we get more rate cuts especially um getting into the later months of this year even next year. More aggressive rate cuts coming will help the markets propel forward. So um that's definitely what we like to see there.
But if we go into let's just take a look at the VIX. All right, we're currently at 14.34 on the VIX. So this is the lowest we have seen it since the tariffs crash. So um like all the way back here in February, mid-February, we saw these levels on the VIX. So what this means is there is a lot of greed in the market right now. Okay, a lot of confidence and greed. And this is when I start getting a little bit fearful. All right, so the VIX volatility index of the S&P 500 is something that I look at to see how much cash I need to have on the sidelines. So let's go ahead and look at my VIX cash allocation levels and I'll tell you exactly where I'm at.
So, as you can see, we are right now between VIX 12 and 15. Again, greed and confidence is here. So, essentially, I could have 40 to 80% of cash on the sidelines or 20 to 60% of my cash allocated to positions. Right now, I have upped my pos my cash position from 5% last week going into the Jerome Powell um speech up to 20%. So, I've definitely increased that a bunch and we do have some new posi or some positions that will get cleared up. Um, for instance, Nvidia and we're going to dive into that.
So, let's go ahead and look at it. Where do I think we're going to be headed from here on QQQ? I think we definitely could grind higher to this 590 area in which the VIX would be at probably in the 12s, maybe even the low 13s. And at that point, um, I would be very cautious and maybe even put on some, you know, short positions like bear call spreads. But for right now, we're just holding the current positions and having some cash on the sidelines ready for a potential next dip. Um, after we get, you know, maybe a grind up to that 590 area. So, that's kind of where I'm eyeing. Um, that's why I'm still staying pretty aggressive as far as my cash levels.
But, um, let's go ahead and talk about it. Let's talk about Nvidia, okay? Because that's the first stock I want to talk about since earnings are upcoming this week. So, I'm going to tell you where the stock is expected to move. I'm going to tell you what my thesis is on Nvidia and where it's headed going forward. Okay.
So, if we look at Nvidia, uh PE ratio is wonderful. It's at a 56 PE right now for a double-digit growth company. Um, this is fantastic, right? This is an undervalued company in my opinion even though the market cap is 4 trillion. Um, if we look at their previous earnings, all right, from last quarter, revenue up 44 billion, up 12% and 69% from a year ago. So, they had amazing earnings the last cycle. Um, and how that affected the stock, I'll show you in just a moment. But also, if we look at their quarterly revenue trend, it's increasing double digits. Data center is increasing. Gaming increased by a lot this last quarter. Um, so that was a big one. And I believe that actually auto and other will be a significant portion of their revenue going forward as you know more of those robo taxis come out, Waymo and all of the other um companies that are doing autonomous vehicles for taxis. I believe that will drastically increase Nvidia's revenue in the next two to three years as well as robotics. Okay. So, they just released a new chip or a robotics um basically hardware that will train the robotics. So, that's something that I think will drastically increase their um other revenues and I believe that's where robotics revenue is uh classified under. So, um, you know, just something to keep in mind.
Now, Nvidia right now, we aren't quite at all-time highs. Okay, all-time highs was 184.60, but we're not far off. Okay, we're not far off. We already had the dip last week. We broke the lower Bollinger band. 172 was the lower Bollinger band. We went all the way down to 169 and kind of bounced off that area. So, I believe that was the key opportunity for anyone that was, you know, maybe a little bit more pessimistic on Nvidia. That was their opportunity to just get out at a profit, especially if they were getting in at these prices over here. All right. So that was the kind of the dip to shake out weak hands and that was much needed going into this earnings because previous earnings if we look at previous earnings like for instance earnings here August 2024 um the stock went down but also the market was going down at that same time. So I don't really count that one. The last time we really saw the stock go up drastically u was back here in May of 2024 where we kind of gapped up and just kept gapping up. Um, but last earnings we did kind of gap up a little bit. It sold off but look at where we're at now. We've since last earnings we have gone up. Okay. Um, let's kind of take a look there. We'll just go from here from the bottom. We have gone up about 36%. Okay.
I believe that Nvidia will most likely hit near 200, but I'm going to show you what the market makers are pricing in for this earnings cycle. So, let's go ahead and dive into the portfolio and I'll show you my current position. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. But if we take a look at my portfolio, okay, my Nvidia position is pretty sizable. In fact, it is the biggest position in the portfolio, but still, you know, 15 around 15% a little bit lower than that of the portfolio. So, not overallocated there. Um, but I'm definitely maxed out. So, u, as far as the position goes, I do have the 170 puts. I have a lot of those that are basically going to expire this week for earnings, and I'm very confident at that level. If I get assigned at 170, that's totally fine. Okay.
But um if we look at the options chain, I'll tell you exactly where the market makers are expecting this stock to move. So if you look over here on the right hand side, okay um the market makers are pricing in a plus or minus $12 move. So this stock could go up to 193 or it could go down to like 168. Okay, so let's kind of draw that out on the map um on the chart. So 193 would be all the way up here. Okay. And 168 would be basically where this green line is. Okay. So, we're just going to actually leave that one there because that's actually where we would go down to, market makers are expecting. And we've already touched that level. So, if we did go down there, we'd probably bounce off that um for like a triple bottom again and then head back up. So, that's kind of worst case scenario. Okay. Uh that's why I put my 170 puts there so I could catch the stock if it does fall down there and get assigned on those shares to write it up in the long term. Right? Because I believe that we are going to 200 by the end of the year. All right.
Um, now if to if the earnings come in really good on Wednesday, you can expect a gap up potentially up to the 190 area, you know, somewhere up here even 193 as the market makers are pricing in. So, I wouldn't doubt that. And I'm actually playing Nvidia more bullish this cycle because of all the positive earnings from Meta, Google, Amazon, right? Tesla, all the all these companies are purchasing Nvidia chips. So, that's why I'm I'm a little bit more bullish um this earnings especially after this pullback that we already had to shake out the weekend. So, um that's how I'm playing it. you know, August 29th. In fact, if I wanted to play earnings again, like if I was didn't have all the positions I had on today, I'd probably go to the I' I'd go to the same strike, the 170 strike. Okay. Um, 1.83. So, 183 bucks, which is 1% in 4 days. ROI is not guaranteed. These numbers fluctuate. In fact, they're fluctuating right now. Okay. But I would play that for that 1%. So, I feel comfortable there. You know, very short time frame.
Or if I wanted to play something longer term, I would go September 26th. Okay, I would go out to the end of September so I don't have to manage this position too often. And um, you know, I'll probably go to the 175 strike, pick up 3.63% ROI. Results vary based off where the stock's at for $610. So, I like that play. Um, I would feel comfortable there. And worst case scenario, if the stock in 32 days falls below 175, I'd have to buy 100 shares at that price. But my long-term thesis is Nvidia going to 200. So, I'd be fine holding the shares and getting that capital appreciation in the long term and selling covered calls against those shares. So, I really like that aggressive strike um for that ROI. Okay, so that's kind of the Nvidia expectation. That's kind of where the market makers are expecting it to go. So, just be aware. I'm definitely playing it more bullish and I think there is um some upside for Nvidia from here. Okay, so that's going to be the Nvidia play.
Now, let's dive into the last two stocks um that I want to talk about because uh they're really moving today. So, SoFi absolutely crushing it. Um, we just hit new all-time highs. 26.41 by the time the market closes could be a little bit higher it looks like. Uh, but, you know, things are definitely getting heated up here. All right, we're officially overbought on the RSI today. We had a bullish crossover on the MACD on Friday. So things are getting heated up. Could this thing head to 27, 28? Sure. I think it's going to 30, but not in the immediate short term, especially with VIX being so low. Um, I'm playing a little bit more cautious here. I think we, you know, maybe go up to 27 and then we consolidate a little more. So maybe, you know, tomorrow we go up a little bit more and then we we get some consolidation which would be nice. Maybe even a little sell-off and then, you know, um kind of build up for the next leg up to 30. So that would be healthy for the stock and that's kind of what we want to see, especially because we did breach the upper Bollinger band here. So I'm going to show you exactly what I did in the portfolio. Okay. Um, mind you, volume bars looking very good. A lot of green volume here. Um, the stock the PE is at 52. So, not super overextended, but definitely on the higher side for this stock as during the tariffs crash, we saw the PE ratio get down into the in the 20s, which was the perfect opportunity to buy. Okay. Um, but I do think it's going to 30.
And if we go into the portfolio, all right, uh, let's go to the positions. Okay. SoFi, as you can see, I had 168K in cash secured puts. Now I have 112K. So, we we closed out all of the I had the 21 and a halfs, the 22s, the 22 and a halfs, and 23 cash secured puts. We closed out everything. That's what led to that uh $4,500 profit today. Now, what I decided to do was play it a little bit safer. Okay? So, I went to the options chain. I went out to the end of September. I don't want to manage this position too often. I just want to kind of set it and forget it, per se. Um, and I went to the 23 and a half strike. Okay, 74 bucks per contract if to sell this put option and collecting 74 bucks which is a 3.32% ROI right now. Results vary. This is not guaranteed because these numbers fluctuate. Um, I was at, you know, I sold these when this was at like 76. So that was like a 3.4% ROI. Um, but that's kind of where I feel comfortable and I'll show you why. All right.
So, if we go to the chart and we just draw out where 23 and a half is, okay, um I could have gone to the 24, which would have paid me out more, right? It would have been closer to a 4% ROI. But I decided, you know, I said, "Hey, do I want more premium or do I want a bigger uh discount on the stock if it does happen to come down with some, you know, bad news in the market or something?" Right? um especially where we're at with the VIX being at 14. I just want to play a little bit safer here. So, I went to 23 and a half. All right. And to give you perspective of how far of a discount that is, that would be a 10% discount. If it did fall down there in 32 days and I did get get assigned and have to purchase those shares. So, I like that discount. 10% that's a good like nice correction on the stock. So, I felt comfortable at that level. Okay. Um, so yeah, that's why I went to the 23 and a half. There's some support there. You know, there was like a lot of trading volume in that area. Could have went to 24, but just decided to play it a little safer and that's just what I feel comfortable doing. So, that was the play on SoFi.
Now, let's talk about the last stock, which is HIMS. Okay, we're going to dive into the portfolio. All right, HIMS. So, I upped the position from 90K in cash secured puts to 118K. Um, if we look at the chart, all right, let's go to the chart. You could see that we bounced off this 41 level prior to the Jerome Powell speech. In fact, during the like the day before the Jerome Powell speech, we were going up on HIMS. Hims was actually performing pretty well while all stocks were going down. So, that's exactly what I wanted to see. I wanted to see a little bit of green volume, a little bit of buyers stepping in and that gave me kind of confidence to say, hey, that potentially was the bottom. We bounce there, we trade sideways for a bit, right? We clear out some of the shorts and then, you know, we grind higher and obviously as this thing grinds higher, it does pick up momentum and it tends to gap up and do this kind of thing and then gap up, right? So that's kind of the expectation there and you could see exactly what happened. um back here. That was kind of exactly what happened. So, I do expect us to trade trade between 40 and 46, let's just say, in this stock for the next couple weeks. I'm not like absolutely super bullish here, but I do think that we trade sideways. So, it's still a great opportunity for the cash secured puts. That's why I added more.
Um, so let's just go to my position and I'll show you exactly what I did here. So, if we go to the HIMS position, you could see that I added seven 40 put options. So, I'm okay getting assigned at 40. There's a lot of there's a lot of premium there on the covered call side. So, and I'm going to get assigned at 50. So, if I do get assigned at 40, at least that will lower my cost basis and it will allow me to collect premium on the covered calls at a lower strike. So, um these will probably get assigned in four days, right? at uh I believe 8,500 in premium that I collected there. So that's fine. But what I did if I had to open a new position today again I would go September 26th just give myself enough time to be right and I'd probably go to either to play it safe. Okay, I'll give you a safe strike and then I'll give you a more aggressive really safest would be 37. That's a 2.66% ROI. not the highest on HIMS and obviously not guaranteed because the stock fluctuates, but um that would be the safe play. And then a little bit more aggressive play would be the 39 strike. I like that strike. Collect 150 4.11% ROI. Results vary based off where the stock's at, but I like that strike and that gives me buffer if the stock does come down um to collect some covered call premiums. So, I really like that play and I think HIMS long-term is a great company. PE ratio looks good here. If we take a look at the PE, currently trading at 54, so not too high. And I think there's a lot of growth ahead, especially with Eli Lilly coming out with their um their GLP-1 oral tablet, which uh you know, obviously HIMS would be able to um prescribe that to patients and maybe even compound it themselves. So something to think about going forward in the long run.
But if you enjoy this video, please give it a thumbs up and I'll see you in the next one.