Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We will of course talk about BTC which is still going down. I will remind you of my orders in "net" mode and more Z, where are they? Where do I want to position myself for the long term. We will then of course talk about Ether. We will look at some altcoins that I was asked to analyze, notably XRP, Kawai, and ICP. And we will of course talk again about the US market and I will answer a question that was asked to me about the use of volumes as a trader investor. So, I'll start here with BTC. That's it, we've hit our first stop, the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is simply a very good zone in general to position oneself. Why? Because it's our first stop, the buyers who since 2023, early 2023, have set this bottom. If they want to maintain the trend, this is where they have to do it. We have always held the 0.382. We see it well here, we bounce perfectly off it. Here, I extend, hop, we wick, we bounce perfectly off it. So here, we are clearly at a very important level. And even historically on BTC, the 0.382 has always been a very important level. If I take, for example, the bull market it had from 2015-2017, I take my Fibonacci. Lowest point here. Hop, there. We see the 0.382 well, we close below it. Very good. We continue our trend. We wick perfectly off it. We continue our trend. We wick off it again. We continue our trend. Hop, we wick off it again. We close below it, and well, we continue our trend and so on and so forth. Again, at this level, the memory, we haven't even touched it. No. And at the moment we broke it, you see, we first bounced off it, then after we broke it, we entered into a downward trend. Here, we are in a similar scenario. That is to say, we are clearly in a good zone to position ourselves on BTC, and even in all transparency, I have entered on spot for the long term, but it's very light. I am very light compared to the entirety of the capital that is ready to be deployed on BTC. It's a very small part. We are around 10-15% maximum. So my cash is waiting for much lower levels, but I estimate that it's a first level that interests me personally. monitoring this zone around 92,000 with a buyer reaction, I haven't had one. We're coming back to test the first stop in confluence with this small support zone of 86,000, this whole zone is a zone that is supposed to act as support. So, I have orders that have been executed, but as I said, it's very light, and the bulk of my orders are much lower. Now, if this level breaks, if we lose the first stop, technically, using only the Bonati tool, the loss of the 0.382 level has a high probability of leading us to test between 0.18 and 0.786. I have intermediate levels between these zones because there is a major level from a price action perspective, which is simply between $70,000 and $73,000, and I have orders here in "net" mode. I will explain later what "net" orders are for those who don't know. Between $74,000 and $67,000. In this whole zone, I have what I call "net" orders. I have two ways to position myself on BTC and Ether primarily. I don't operate like that on altcoins because in a downtrend, I don't know which altcoins will survive. I don't know the future of altcoins, and not all altcoins are as strong as BTC. So on BTC, I proceed in two ways. I divide my investment capital. Here, I'm talking about long-term investment. Okay? I divide my capital in two. I must have a first part, which is what I call "net" orders. And the second part will globally be the bottom. My "net" orders, which will represent a good portion, will globally be orders on levels, major weekly and monthly support levels that I deem interesting, where we can potentially have a wick and where I can simply position myself because I will have a pullback on an entry zone that could interest me. Globally, I have two zones with "net" orders. I have this first zone between $74,000 and $67,000 because I estimate that if we go there, we have a very high probability of setting a bottom in this zone. There are many things that make me say that from a price action perspective, it's a level where we have been lateralizing for 8 months. So, if we look at the price structure, it's this big dip here where we also have a buyer reaction. Well, this zone interests me. So, between this zone, I have about twenty orders. So, how does this work? "Net" orders. I estimate, or rather I determine, the level first. Then, I determine the amount I will put in this zone, and I divide it into several orders. So, I have about 20 orders in this zone, and my goal is simply if we have a wick, if we have a violent dump like we had here on this wick, hop, I had some orders executed. Okay? At times, not all orders are executed, but here I have a first zone, and I have a second zone which will globally be in my reload zone between 0.58 and 0.786. Now, yes, this is a zone that is a bit bigger. I estimate that there is a higher chance of having a bounce like this to go up afterwards. There is very little chance that we will go down in a straight line. Here, a second zone that starts, not at $57,000, but a bit lower, around $50,000, where again, if we go there, for me it's a good zone to position myself, and I also have "net" orders. Then I have a part that I keep for a bottom. For a bottom, it will simply be when I have a reversal structure. It can be now, it can be there, it can be there. It can be lower, but globally I have cash that I reserve and don't use to enter. No matter how the market goes down, the market can go down in a straight line. This is a part that I will never use, unless I have a confirmed bottom. If I take the dump we had in 2022, 2023, "net" orders would be, for example, if I take globally an example, it would be orders that would be executed on interesting levels. For example, this large zone where we have a lot of liquidity to seek. It would be, for example, at the previous ATH level. So, these are zones that interest us. And the cash available in "bottom" mode will be when we validate this type of reversal structure here. So, the difference is that "net" orders are executed when we have a capitulation, when we have a sharp drop like here, like here for example, and the cash for bottoms will be when we validate reversal structures. So, there are advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of "net" orders is that we don't need to be in front of the screens, we don't need to do analysis every day. The orders are placed and executed automatically, at night, during the day, at any time. And often, we get executed at price levels that interest us when we have capitulations. The disadvantage is that we don't have the bottom, and we can get executed there and continue to have a new drop. The advantage of bottom structures is that we position ourselves at a bottom. The disadvantage is that we are not 100% sure that it is the bottom. We can take a risk, of course, and we can miss the bottom, and especially we don't get the lowest point, we might enter higher because, you see, the "nets" that are executed here are lower than a confirmed bottom when we have the weekly close that validates this W structure around $20,000, if I recall correctly. So, that's how I proceed currently on BTC. I'm not saying we're going to go there right away, I'm just sharing with you in all transparency. As we go up, I told you where I was taking my profits, now we're going down, and well, we'll talk about bear market strategy, how to position ourselves, and simply, well, prepare for what's next. I don't know if we're going to go there, I don't know how long it will take, I don't know what will happen, but I'm ready. So, I have orders, and I estimate that a BTC returning to this zone or that zone are two very good localization zones. I've already told you why, as a long-term reload zone, we have the production cost of BTC, it's here that we also had the launch of ETFs. So, there are many reasons that lead me to believe that these zones on BTC are very interesting. So, that's it. Otherwise, now on the short to medium term, we remain here in a downtrend. If I put moving averages, we still have 15 minutes below 1 hour, 1 hour below 4 hours. Moving averages that act as resistance, always, and I insist on this, we are still in a zone where we will look for shorts, to continue the trend. So, we have had a very good buyer reaction here in the short term, going from approximately $80,000 to $85,000. We could be at a short-term bottom here. Why? Because we went down quite low. We had a capitulation wick here. We see that we went very quickly from $85,000 to $81,000. That was absorbed. So, this indicates to us, in the first instance, that there is a buyer reaction here. We came back to retest this wick. Often, when we have wicks like this, they are often retested, and we see that we had a direct engulfing as well. Which shows us that in the zone between $80 and $80, there are buyers present. So, perhaps entering a small bottom, it wouldn't surprise me. After so much decline here, the most probable thing is a continuation of our decline because in a downtrend or even in an uptrend, we always start from the principle that the trend will continue. Now, given the decline we've had so quickly since November 11th, well, it's not even 10 days, we've had a -23%. For me, we're going to enter a phase where the market will potentially lateralize, enter a consolidation phase. Well, we'll see, it's like when we have this kind of decline. I'll go back to the bear market of 2021. You see, when we have quite brutal declines, generally the market lateralizes like we had here. Then, we had a sharp percentage drop, these are still significant drops. Here, you see, we are at -16%, we lateralize, we have another break downwards -21%, we lateralize. Generally, it's very rare for the market to dump, dump, dump without lateralizing without having a lateralization phase. So, it wouldn't surprise me. Here, we can retest this level, of course, but enter into a range. In any case, we remain in a downtrend, we monitor pivot points, a weekly pivot point that acted as support. These can be intermediate levels to take profits. The 3-minute tunnel is very interesting, the 3-minute tunnel when we make a new low, when we continue our downward momentum. I had already mentioned that we had broken at this level. Very interesting for trend continuation. At this level, we see each time that we make a new low, that we have a range that breaks downwards, well, the 3-minute tunnel is very interesting for determining reference points for someone who is scalping or trading intraday. Otherwise, for someone who wants to position themselves a bit on intraday, not too much on the short term, you have to monitor the 15-minute tunnel. We see it here, it acts as resistance, resistance, resistance, and so on. And for the moment, well, we haven't even retested the 1-hour level since the $103,000. So, when it's retested, again, we'll have to monitor it in case we have a retracement and we go back to test, for example, this weekend, the level of $89,000. We have a very good confluence. $89,000, psychological round number, weekly pivot point, and we also have the 1-hour tunnel which will surely align with this level. So, in case of a rebound and an interesting retracement, this could be a good zone to look for shorts. And that's it. Otherwise, not much else to say. This is how I operate. I've repeated it quite a few times. What I'm doing now is trying to give you maximum value to manage these kinds of phases. And psychologically, there's a lot to say too. Psychologically, I could give a one-hour course on at least one hour on all the psychological biases we can feel in a bear market. This is where you learn a lot about yourself, especially your risk management. This is not where you will learn the technical side, but the side of managing your emotions and risk management. Did you choose the right capital? Were you not too exposed, not exposed enough? These are questions you might ask yourself because a person who is devastated, who is even emotionally destroyed by this kind of decline, is someone who had too much capital, and therefore the loss they have, which may not even be closed, which is just a latent unrealized loss, impacts them emotionally. This is because the choice of capital, the choice of exposure they had, are sums that are too large and therefore that affected them. And it is in this kind of phase that you can take advantage to re-evaluate your strategy, see if you chose the right amounts, see if you chose the right cryptos, and take stock. Now, if you are in a difficult phase, if you don't really know how to manage all this, don't hesitate to join the Discord. Ask me a question, contact me by private message, discuss it with other members. There are very competent members who can help you. Don't stay alone, okay? Try to learn something from it, okay? Either we learn from others' mistakes, or we learn from our own mistakes. But in this kind of phase, if you learn from your own mistakes at the expense of your capital, well, really learn from your mistakes. Don't start by saying "Yeah, I'm moving on. Yeah, it's the market's fault." No, you will never progress like that, so make it useful. That's it for BTC, and for Ether. Ether, we broke the $3,000 level. We are clearly settling below this daily close. Tool. Small buyer reaction, we see it with a rather low wick, but it doesn't reverse our downtrend. We have a wick here that represents more than 50% of the candle. If we close like this, again, we might be at a first bottom, but for now, it's just a rebound. We can talk about a bottom if we structure this type of pattern and break the 15-minute tunnel. This has been acting as resistance for a while, and we are reversing our tunnels. Yes, this could be a signal where we could retrace, come back to test, for example, $3,200. That's possible. Now, I see a downward momentum here with lower lows and lower highs. And technically, if we assume that we have broken $3,000, the next objective is to reach approximately $2,200, this intervention zone. So, on Ether, it's exactly the same as on BTC. We put moving averages, we do trend continuation. You see, again, 3-minute tunnel, resistance, resistance. Again, when we lost it, resistance, resistance, all this to continue the trend, it was quite good. Here, there is a good confluence around $2,845. 15-minute tunnel, weekly pivot point. Again, if we go there with a seller reaction, with a signal that tells us in "bearish" mode, globally, it can be a high wick, there are several types of signals, it can be a bearish engulfing, it can be a high wick like we have here. See this type of signal, a big push by buyers to reach the highs, seller reaction, and close in the red. That's a big bearish candle. That's a fairly strong signal. It can be a bearish engulfing, it can be a reversal structure, it can be a dynamic inversion on a shorter timeframe. It's up to you to see and decide what you mean by a seller reaction. For me, a seller reaction is simply sellers showing up. Then it's up to you to see which patterns interest you the most. This is a seller reaction with a bearish engulfing here. So, in this type of configuration, determine reference points. First, identify your trend. Here, it's not complicated, we are in a downtrend. Then, determine a reference point and simply look for shorts when we come back to this reference point if we have a seller reaction. That's it for BTC and Ether. Hop, we can talk a bit about the US market which is having a bullish day for now, but we remain in a downtrend in my opinion, especially with this Mtop that has been validated. We also have a rather bearish candle here. We have retested the neckline, and we have a close here that is clearly controlled entirely by sellers, buyers who tried to push but were overwhelmed by sellers. We don't specifically have a weekly Mtop like we might have had, for example, at this level. But if we start retesting, forming a larger structure, again, if you are looking to invest in the S&P 500, do it intelligently. Many are in "I DCA the S&P 500 my whole life until I'm 60 and I'll retire with a million." Well, I think if you watch my videos daily, it's to gain skills and, let's say, not wait until 60 to have a substantial sum, I think. Otherwise, you don't need to watch my videos, do your DCA on the S&P 500 and don't waste my time. I think if you want to optimize your entries a bit, you can do it in different ways without stressing, just with moving averages or, I personally believe for the S&P 500, a retracement of -20% is interesting. Take the highest point, say "Okay, -20%, I'm starting to reposition myself for the long term." And that would bring us to around this level on the S&P 500. -20% to -30% is interesting. You can wait for -50%, but the last time -50% happened was in 2008 and in the 2000s. So, will it happen again? Maybe, but reserve cash that you deploy when we start to have -20% to -30%, or you put in moving averages and look for the 3-day tunnel. A 3-day tunnel is a good reference point. And generally, it coincides with the -20% anyway. Yes, roughly, so that's a good reference point to start entering positions. I wouldn't start entering here on the S&P 500, it's much too high. Nasdaq is the same, globally. Top structure, neckline retest. So, we have structures here that are not great. Before I move on to altcoins, I was asked a question about how to use the volume indicator. The volume indicator, it's true that I use it, I used it quite a bit before when I started trading, even a few years ago, but I use it much less. Why? Because there are tons of indicators, and the goal is not to use everything. You can know how to use everything, but the more indicators you try to use at the same time, the more confused you will get. There's no point in looking for confirmation of confirmation of confirmation. It's useless. Volumes can be used in different ways. For me, the simplest way is to validate breakouts, validate impulses. Here, I'm on the perpetual contract. I especially like to use them on the spot contract because again, depending on the contracts you use. If it's on BTC USDT Binance, BTC USDT Perp Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Bitgate, you won't have the same volumes. This is something you need to take into account. I like to use it when we simply have breaks, when we have impulses, or even when we have some capitulation candles. When there are sharp drops, it can be interesting to see if it's capitulating or not, if we have high volumes, which is often the case. If I take, for example, here, May 2021 with this red candle with high volume, we also have this phase. We can capitulate, but it's lower. Again, it's an indicator, it's not a magic indicator that will always predict the bottom or the moment of capitulation. Here, a good red candle, capitulation phase, and then this one, well, very important at the time of the FTX crash. So, to identify phases like this of capitulation, it can be interesting. Then we have breakouts, of course, when there is a price increase without a volume increase, it's generally not good. And here we have a concrete case where we have a strong confirmation of a break. We see that it's a candle on volumes that is quite significant, quite enormous, whereas here afterwards we are at the same price level and the volumes are relatively low. Here, we have a signal that shows us that, okay, well, there were really a lot of people who pushed with record volumes on BTC, USDT spot. Then, you can look at other things. You can look globally on Coinbase and on other exchanges like that, to have correlations, but the biggest use of volumes, in my opinion, is to accompany the price. You can't just analyze volumes like that, you have to look for a correlation with the price, especially when we have breaks. This also works on intermediate timeframes when you have structure breaks. For example, here, you see, we have a lateralization phase that we are starting to break downwards, well, you have to look if we have significant volumes. If we don't have volume, here we see a big spike on the histogram. If, however, we have a break without volume, well, it can be a false break, a trap, or simply, well, it's not pushing, or simply a false break, whether it's upwards or downwards. Then, we can use volume divergences. That is to say, let's say, we make a... Can I find an example here? Well, we are in a downtrend, so I could, but you see these capitulation phases. This is what I was saying, this is when it was October 10th. You see the big candle we have on volumes with a big drop, well, it indicates to us, and we also have a fairly significant wick on the hourly. Here, a lot of people capitulated. A lot of people were taken out. We can also use volumes as divergences in the sense that we see here that we are making a higher high on our price and here on the volume, we are simply making a lower low. That means we have less support. Okay? And we simply have a bearish divergence. It can also be used in this way. So, the goal is not to make a 30-minute tutorial on volumes, but globally, here's how we can use them. Now, for the altcoins you asked me to analyze, I have XRP. So, XRP, downtrend, be careful with this. Be careful with this kind of crypto. If we really enter a bear market and BTC goes back to $50,000-$60,000, these are cryptos that will go to the bottom. We are already at a higher high, lower low, with a -86% drop. Nothing prevents this type of crypto from dropping another -50% to -60%. It's entirely possible. And that's why in a downtrend like we are currently in, I don't position myself on altcoins. At least not for now. If we have bottom structures forming on BTC, I might expose myself to certain altcoins. For now, I'm not exposed to any because if we enter a bear market like we experienced in 2021, 2022, even 2023, it will be very ugly, it will be very, very ugly for altcoins, and we will continue to correct, and some altcoins will not recover. Here, we put moving averages, what do we observe? We are below the moving averages, below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour, below the 15-minute. There's nothing to do with this. Don't start DCAing on this because DCAing on this means immobilizing your capital on a potentially crypto that will never yield profits and will continue to fall. At worst, you will do your DCA and it will fall, fall, fall, fall. One day it will pump and you will close at break-even because you will say "That's it, I've been accumulating this crypto for 3 years, I'm just at break-even, while BTC has made a new ATH and so on." This has been the case for many cryptos. I'll take EGLD for example. I'm telling you, EGLD, the number of people who DCAed it during this entire decline. I'll put it in normal so it's a bit more shocking. Hop, who DCAed EGLD during this entire decline. They are just at break-even here. When they reach here, they are at BE. They immobilized their capital for 3 years just to be at BE, while BTC made a new ATH and performed very well. So, yes, be careful with this kind of crypto. I'm not saying it will be the case for XRP. However, I'm just saying it will be the case for some altcoins. Then, it's up to you to identify them and choose the right cryptos. Here, you have strong convictions. Also be careful with young projects. Check the tokenomics. You can have tokens that are locked and will be distributed to private investors, to the foundation, to the team, and so on. And in a bear market, they will clearly take advantage to take their profits to cash out and invest elsewhere. So, this is also something to consider. Young projects can have tokenomics that are not great for the coming months and years. Then, I have an analysis of Kawai, or what is this? I don't think I'm on the right chart. Yes, that seemed strange to me too. Okay. Can I get even better? I don't know why I'm on the perpetual contract. Mex in general. Mex. Yes, I'll take that. Mex in general is not bad. Yes, that's it. Well, we are literally on a pump and dump. There's not much to do with this. It's an altcoin that took off, okay, that made a big performance, then after it took its -99%. There's nothing to do with this, it's too late. Don't start saying "Yeah, it might happen again, but I personally wouldn't take the risk." We had this phase of glory where everything was exposed, we set our market top, and now it's collapsing. It's complicated to enter into this. First, never trade this. Given the volatility, you will get wiped out. You see, these are -27% candles, I'm on daily. Here, it's -28%, -27%, -31%. There is very high volatility, and we have rebounds too. You see, in 3 days, it's a rebound of almost 2x. And here, we are clearly in a downtrend. I'll switch to short term, we see the 15-minute acting as resistance, 1-hour acting as resistance. There's nothing to do with this. At best, if you want to try something, wait for a lateralization phase. You start to show that there is interest in this kind of structure. You see the difference between an uptrend here and bottoms that are forming. Double bottom, triple bottom, higher highs and higher lows, or here we simply have lower lows and lower highs. So, yes, this is really not great, and be careful with the volatility on this kind of crypto. I think these are very low market cap cryptos that can die overnight. Now, if you want to try something, when we have a W structure. Yes, even with a W, the chart is ugly, it's very young. There's nothing to do with this. There's nothing to do. So, be patient, and I wouldn't touch this kind of altcoin. Now, if you're a bit of a gambler, wait for a better signal, but with good risk management, because there's a higher probability of losing everything. It's almost like gambling. Last crypto, ICP. Let's see where it is. It's true I haven't looked at it since I closed my trade last time. We pumped well. We retraced well. That's why I told you to take your profits quickly for those who entered. Ah yes, I don't have the highest point, proof. But at least I prefer to close here than to say I'll keep it, I'll keep it, I'll keep it. Never close and end up at this level. Maybe still in profit, but certainly much less substantial gains. We retrace. ICP remains globally in this large lateralization phase. The lower extremity remains more of a zone where we look for buys. Now, it's better to wait for a reaction, a bit like I did, but well, for me, it's more of a very short-term reaction that I waited for. Those who want to position themselves more for the long term, well, wait for a W pattern like we had here, for example, this type of pattern. Already, that will give you a more interesting style. And in this kind of configuration, we directly put an invalidation with a weekly close below this level, below $2.5. Because if we start closing weekly below this level, well, it wouldn't be very pretty, and we would exit this lateralization phase that has been going on since 2022, and we would have a high chance of continuing this downtrend which is fundamentally bearish. ICP, we're coming from far away, we see it well. Hop, there. So, for now, longs can be taken at the lower extremity, but I would be very cautious given the context we have on BTC, Ether, and cryptos in general. So, I've said what I wanted to say, I'll leave you with this. Don't hesitate, those who are not yet in the Discord, to join by clicking on the first link in the description. I've been transparent, I've shared my plan on BTC, whether it's my last purchases and especially the zones that interest me for what's next. We'll see what happens with that. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.