Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you've had a wonderful weekend. And today, we will do our weekly analysis.
So, this week is actually one of my favorite weeks, right? It's week two, CPI week. The week two is usually when we have CPI, by the way. Like, if you don't know that, I don't know if I've said that before, but usually in the second week of the month. But not usually, it's always the second week of the month that's when we have CPI, right? Why manipulation, right? So that's the purpose of CPI.
And as you guys can see, right, today Sunday, March 10th. Tomorrow is Monday, right? We have no news. So tomorrow, what can we expect? We can expect one of two things tomorrow. But either one of those will have one thing in common, right? Price will be lackluster, or it will just expand, right, without any retracements, right? So it will basically just be high pro, low probability. Why do I always do that? It will be low probability, right? More than more than likely tomorrow, we don't have any news. And then due to the fact that Tuesday, we have all of this, you know, liquidity being injected into the marketplace, right? We can expect, you know, Monday to not do much, right? So we have core P, CPI, CPI, CPI at 8:30 a.m. in the morning, right?
So, so we know that the setup, one of the best setups for the week, is going to be Tuesday at New York session in the afternoon session on Tuesday. We have a high impact news event. Again, this is an important, right? Don't matter what this is, you just want to see a red folder. So Tuesday will more than likely set the tone of the week, right? Tuesday. So tomorrow, we're just going to study what Monday does, right? There could be a setup, of course, but I don't think that, you know, if you're new, you should be taking it. Or if you, if you want to take, you know, a setup or try to trade Monday's range or whatever, use a demo account, right?
So on Wednesday, we have news again at in the afternoon session, right? So this is Wednesday, and we have news in the afternoon session, you know, which could be reversal or the day of Wednesday due to the fact that we have this news event in the afternoon session, right? Thursday would be very impactful to the week as well, like Tuesday, right? So we could have Tuesday and Thursday, you know, respectfully forming one doing the high of the week or the low of the week. But either way, one of them will, you know, do the high or low of the week. Pretty sure about that. So Thursday, we have a lot of, right, red folder news at 8:30 in the morning, which is the New York session, right?
So if we see sequential SMT between Thursday and Wednesday, right, due to the fact that we have all this liquidity being injected into the market, we can expect reversal. The same thing goes for Friday and Thursday because we have a lot of fud to be injected into the market on Friday as well. So this week should be fruitful, right? That's what I think, right? Like 80% sure.
So to go over again, Monday, we just watch the market, right? Now, some of you are advanced, you know, I can stop you from trading if you want to, right? But just, you know, be mindful to risk. Tuesday, your next session will be very important. Who set the tone of the week? Wednesday afternoon session setup. Thursday New York session setup. Friday New York session setup. So I just told you based on this alone, right, when we can expect the setups to form. And this is, you know, this is a cross goes for every market, not just forex or index futures or bonds, right?
So now we'll look at the dollar index, right? We'll look at the weekly time frame. As you guys can see, we are at a disadvantage, you know, currently when it comes to reading price action. But it's still, we can still do it and, you know, be accurate while doing so. But at the moment, you know, you can't just hold a onesided bias, right? Because we could see price go up, you know, then drop, or just drop into this fair value gap below the low and then we can rally afterwards. All right. So we are within a bigger range, within a that's within a bigger range. We have this liquidity void right here, right, which we could retrace to if price dips into this fair value gap, right? So currently, you know, that's what makes most sense. The most sense to me, right? We have this gap right here, and then we could see price fall below the equilibrium of this range, then retrace back up into this liquidity.
Look at GBPUSD. So currently, we have sequential SMT, right, between the first quarter of this year and the last quarter of the previous year, right? So this is the high of Q4 of the previous year, right? And this is the high of the current quarter that we're within. So this right here is sequential SMT, right? If you look at the dollar index, the dollar index did not take out this low, whereas we had the pound taking out this high. So that's SMT in itself. Before we could, you know, consider any, we need to be mindful that we need to see accumulation, right? Daily accumulation, right? And then a sequential SMT forming on a lower time frame cycle, right? Remember, we just, we don't just go in due to the fact that we see sequential SMT because there's a sequence that, you know, price follows, right?
This right here, the opening price of this candle, which is the opening price of this year, is the is a revolving true open buy because it's between this high and this high, which is sequential SMT, right? So right now, I would probably be looking for price to take this high or leave it, right, while causing sequential SMT and, you know, return into this liquidity void right here. And if, you know, first need that, and we don't see sequential SMT here, then this side will be of, you know, our interest. But I don't think that we'll get to the high right now, at least not before we trade into this range. We also have liquidity below these lows right here, right? So I'm not being two-sided, right? I think this is sequential SMT, but we know that this is sequential SMT, but we just need to see confirmation on the lower time frame cycles.
Now, we'll take a deeper look into the price action of the dollar index, the Euro, and the pound, right? So currently, there is not, you know, anything to do right now, right? I would like to see price at a run below this low, you know, while maybe showing to this level. Could happen either Tuesday or Thursday, right? We have a lot of, a lot of volatility that will be entering the marketplace. Right down here, this is this was the low of the previous yearly quarter, right? So this was key for last year, and this was the low, right? We haven't even shed a close to this before. No, this year. So during the starting of this year, we expected price to rally higher from here, right? And we expected it to actually rally to these levels. You guys can remember, and we expected price to return into the range, as it is doing now. I think there's balance liquidity here. There is liquidity here, and we have balance liquidity here as well, below these equal, relatively equal lows. And within this your value gap, right, we have liquidity that, you know, could be activated if we have sequential SMT in this area. Same thing goes for the Euro, right? If price trades above this high, I would expect some, you know, measure of retracement considering that, you know, there is sequential SMT. So, you know, I would like to see the price action of tomorrow be lackluster, right? Or even if it, you know, expands, it stops before going for these levels, right? That's what I would like to see. We have liquidity below this swing low and below this swing low. We are not close to the previous quarter of the last year's high, whereas we have blasted through that exact high within the pound.
All right, for the pound, right? Again, we need to wait for, you know, lower time frame sequence or SMT for this to be of any use to us. Have fair value gap here, and we have sequence of SMT here. So we could see price, you know, wake up and fall within this gap this week. I wouldn't be comfortable buying above, you know, a previous quarter's high, right, where it's the, you know, yearly cycle and, you know, we have see sequential SMT so far. So we need to see consolidation, right, for this to have any use to us, right? Just as how here we had consolidation, here we had consolidation, right? But just one candle, you know, doesn't give us enough information to use.
Now, on the lower time frame, you guys can see a bit clearer, right? So this is the monthly cycle that we're looking at currently, which is comprised of four weeks, of course. As you guys know, when we're looking at the monthly cycle, we always, you know, use the four-hour chart because that's where we will get the best insight from. We have liquidity below this low, right? This is the dollar. And we have liquidity above this high in the Euro. We have liquidity above this high again, the pound. So if we have, you know, manipulation and price tags one of these highs and, you know, leave one of them untacked or tacked on these highs form so swing high and then have after that, then we could expect a reversal this week. This is the low of the previous week, right? Be mindful of that. This is the high of the previous week, and this is the high of the previous week, right? Which means that we could anticipate, you know, SMT, sequential SMT, right, during this week due to the fact that this is the low of Q1 and this is the low of and the low of Q2 could form here. We have buy side liquidity here. Here we have an imbalance right here. We have liquidity here as well, right? We could even see price sweep this side and fall, then continue high. We have liquidity below this low, this low, and below this low, and a lot below this low as well.
All right. So if, if you look at the, you know, the monthly time frame, you're just using PD arrays, you would get a, you know, a different, you get a different bias, basically. But due to the fact that we're using time and we're waiting for certain signatures to form, which is sequential SMT, you know, hidden sequential SMT, and so on, we have a better outlook at price action.
Now, you know, I'm looking at my favorite thing, index futures. So currently, we have sequential SMT at these highs, right? So we have the right, the opening of this price, the high, the high of the week, the previous week opening above the previous high of the quarter, which followed the previous week, right? Also, as you guys can see, I highlighted this high, which was formed above this high with, you know, a red line, and here as well, right? Usually, right, whenever you're trading during, you know, a quarter which follows something that, you know, forms like this, whereas even though, right, this would be what the regular person would be looking at for, you know, SMT, we're going to use this one. And due to the fact that this swing high formed above this one, right, this would propel price lower if you understand. And then right here, you can see that this candle didn't trade into this gap, whereas this candle traded into this gap. Once price breaks below this, right, well, once price closes below this, we see it as a change in the state of delivery of price, right? And this would actually, you know, be a real market structure shift. This high right here is the same high as this one, right? It formed at the same time, but this one was below these highs here, right? If, can you see that? So this is above this, this is below this, right? In these cases, you usually have reversals, which is why we had reversals here. The fact that we had sequential SMT above these highs, and we have a, you know, a lower time frame range high below this higher time frame range high. So we had price sweep above here, right? This was already above this high, and this is what actually caused price to, you know, fall lower. See, there are no higher time frame PD areas here for price to react from, you understand? And if you don't understand, you know, you understand in due time. So we can expect price to, you know, gravitate lower at the moment, right? So we can expect the NASDAQ, at least, to gravitate below this low, maybe this low, right, which would be previous week's low, right? The pre-previous week's high was taken already, and there was sequential SMT which formed during that. So we now look for these lows, right? Right, this is like where we're introducing the magneto effect, which I posted about yesterday, right? A, you know, a current cycle's sequential SMT will cancel the previous one, and then the previous one will be usually attacked as liquidity. So it would like create a magnet effect for price, which is some things that we see happen a lot, right?
So looking at price right now, you can see this was the, right, this was the high of the cycle before the last cycle, right? So we had price trade above, failed to break above this high, whereas the NASDAQ, it traded and broken above this high. S&P 500 broke above this high, but this failed to do so, right? This is weaker than these at the moment, right? At the moment, within the current cycle that we're looking at, so we can actually see price, you know, gravitate below these lows, right? And what would, you know, give us the, what I would say, give us the signal to exit a trade, right? If we find the setup here, which aligns with, you know, this bias of taking out these lows, if there is sequential SMT, right? If there is sequential SMT, then that's when we exit. That's when you exit trades. You're getting a sequential SMT, and you get out. A sequential SMT, because remember, that's when price reverses, okay?
So we'll be watching these very closely this week. And last week, we had beautiful price action, right? We expected price to first, we expected price to fall, we got that, it was insane. Then we expected sequential SMT to form, we got this. Then we expected price to rally, then we got sequential SMT here again. Then it rallied above these highs, and then Friday did what it was supposed to do, right? Returned back into the range. Now we have the daily time frame, right? You can see that we have SMT here, you know, at these highs right here, not just any SMT, sequential SMT, right? So these lows and these lows and these lows, you know, are the next drawn liquidity. That's what I see at the moment. And this goes, you know, good with what we said that we expect, you know, to happen with the dollar, right? Because if the dollar drops and rallies, that should send the index futures, you know, to take those lows. Right? And if the Euro, you know, rallies and formed sequential SMT, then that would be indicative of lower prices.
So I hope that you guys, you know, you found that, you know, insightful. It will be, of course, you know, going over the price action as it unfolds this week, right? Anytime they receive SMT, you will be, you know, as usual, notified about that. So that is something that you'll always see, right? Me telling you when there is sequential SMT. Whenever there is sequential SMT, what do we expect? Reversals. You expect reversals. That's the main mechanism behind reversals. They're right. Look at these highs. We had price fall there. There were no levels there, no higher time frame PD areas, right? It's just due to the fact that there's SMT, but not just any SMT, right? Sequential SMT. So at the moment, we had SMT here, right? Remember here, you at this, these lows and these highs, right? This SMT forms after this one, which would trigger the magneto effect, right? And we'll go over these things, right, as we go along. So I want to show you guys again, right, right here when we had SMT, right? We expected higher prices, but this candle broke this high, right? Returned back to the range and then expanded higher. This candle did not break this high, right? So this is, you know, something that you will learn, right? How to decipher fake, fake sequential SMT, fake SMT, as we go along.
Guys can see we're really overbought, right? In regards to the S&P 500, even, you know, Bitcoin, the Forex market, not the US dollar. I think the, not think the Euro and the pound. Yeah, that's it. So I hope that you guys, you know, took something from that. Really hope that you did. And, you know, mark up your charts. This should be a good week for us. Now, not everyone has the insight that we have. Manage your risk, and I'll speak to you guys sometime during this week, probably before Wednesday. Probably before Wednesday. So I'll record, well, this video is recorded. I'll just upload this video. I'll try to upload it to W and see what happens. Then I'll notify you guys about that.