Transcription
Hello friends. All equations have been shattered. All old records have been broken. And the first phase of voting in Bihar has openly declared that the mood of the public in Bihar is now at high voltage. The stance of the administration within Bihar is one of mediation. Meaning, they do not know whose government will be formed tomorrow, so they have adopted a middle path. The stance of the leaders of the ruling political parties has become defensive. The stance of the opposition leaders is aggressive. And amidst all these circumstances, the voting record, compared to the previous election, has exceeded 10% in many places. In some places, more than 5% of votes were cast. But the special thing is that last time, in the first phase of voting, the average voting in the same places where voting happened today was 55% in 2020. This time, by 3 PM, the average voting had already reached about 54%. By 4 PM, it broke the record of last time. By 5 PM, it crossed 60%, and by 6 PM, it stood at 65%. Even after that, queues were still present. The election commission has to release the data for after that at night, which will be the final figure. But the voting pattern in different places has delivered many messages in one go. The first message that appeared in this voting was that this is a moment of decision. Meaning, whether to save the government or to overturn it. Amidst this message, voting proceeded more or less everywhere. Both Deputy CMs of Bihar, Samrat Chaudhary from Tarapur and Vijay Sinha from Lakhisarai, appeared to be in trouble in their constituencies. And amidst all this, the RJD, or rather their voters, appeared extremely aggressive everywhere. While the police administration adopted a middle path, Vijay Sinha rebuked the SP. On the other hand, in Danapur, the police stopped those who wanted to cross the river to vote. But in Khagaria, they were allowed to go. Meaning, the river flows, and there are some booths on the other side. How to go there? If you go by boat, you couldn't leave Danapur. But arrangements were made to go to Khagaria. Nitish Kumar's voter is very silent. He appeared very quietly. But this message was evident in the first phase: the anti-incumbency is not against Nitish Kumar. The ruling party, BJP, is considered to be facing anti-incumbency, and the BJP has fallen victim to anti-incumbency. After that, the Congress faced a crisis in those constituencies where their candidates are standing. Whether votes are transferring or not. The Left parties were certainly confident in their traditional vote bank, but for the first time, even in an MLC seat, meaning CPI (Marxist-Leninist) CPI (ML), which won 12 seats last time, a division was observed. It is a party of laborers, a party of farmers, connected with daily wage laborers. Think whatever you want. But even there, a division was observed. Whether Mukesh Sahni could keep the Mallah community united or not is a question. But the extremely backward class is openly divided everywhere. Chirag Paswan, the Paswan community, is united, but the trust that Chirag Paswan had in the BJP has become entangled somewhere. He appeared to be seen with a particular caste, and the victory or defeat of his party's candidates has come to depend on the vote transfer of the BJP. But another message was also seen here. Where the Janata Dal (United) voters are, where there is no arrow symbol, where Chirag Paswan or the BJP's party is contesting, votes were also seen transferring towards the lantern. This message will likely contribute towards forming new equations in Bihar after the election. If the Janata Dal (United) votes are shifting towards the lantern, leaving Chirag Paswan and the BJP, then perhaps the Janata Dal (United) can win many more seats in this election compared to last time. This is also a message, and the BJP might lose many seats compared to last time. But this does not mean that the RJD is in profit. Not at all. The presence of Jan Swaraj as a new party has caused the maximum dent, the maximum damage, to the BJP. Because in this election, at least Jan Swaraj had three things. One, complete data constituency-wise, which was available, and Prashant Kishor's grip on it. Accordingly, for the first time, it was seen how they tried to appease castes constituency-wise based on the castes of the candidates, and they linked education with it. We will tell you how and what happened. So Jan Swaraj appears as a surprising element here. Janata Dal (United) can also be a surprise. But whose votes will Jan Swaraj get? This anxiety within the BJP is much more widespread. Will Muslims be divided between AIMIM and Jan Swaraj, or do they have a very clear vision in their minds? RJD and Congress and the MY equation. Even in the MY equation, breaches were seen in many places in terms of candidates. Meaning, there is no anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. Anti-incumbency is against the BJP. The MY equation, meaning the Muslim-Yadav equation, is not united; within it, there is some division somewhere. And amidst these circumstances, five big questions have openly emerged at this stage. The biggest question was whether the women who came out in such numbers want to save Nitish's government and are in favor of Nitish, or is the BJP targeted by them? Where will women's vote bank shift from Nitish? Will it go towards Jan Swaraj? This is also a question. And amidst all this, the big thing is the youth segment, which constitutes almost the entire voting percentage. If we look at the past, it comes out to about 13-14-15%, who came out to vote in larger numbers this time. That is why we said that in many places, voting has increased by about 10% compared to last time, and in some places by 5% more votes. This is a message that this election will not be comparable to previous elections in many respects. Because the youth segment is with Prashant Kishor, the migrant labor segment is with Prashant Kishor, there is a question about the BJP within the middle class, and Prashant Kishor is a new hero within that middle class. Now, in these circumstances, we need to try to understand. Everywhere there is a face, a name. Here is a party whose face and name are not even in the electoral arena. We are referring to Prashant Kishor, and perhaps the biggest loss in this regard is for Chirag Paswan, who got confined to caste and the circumstances did not become favorable for him. The entry is happening of Jan Swaraj in Patna, Buxar, Nalanda, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Saran, Vaishali, Samastipur, Begusarai. How widespread will its entry be in these places? This is a part of the picture that perhaps the mandate will reveal. But in these places, it is in a position to dent the winners, and whether they will win or not is still a nagging question, which perhaps after this analysis will bring a clear vision to you. Here it is very important that by 3 PM itself, the records of Gopalganj, Lakhisarai, and Munger from last time were broken. By 5 PM, more than 7% more votes were cast in Begusarai compared to last time. In the aggressive way voting was happening, if you look at the faces, for a moment in Lakhisarai, where Deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha was trapped, and when he started talking to the SP on his mobile phone, for a moment in that entire area, the scene we are about to show you, the people standing on the margins, the houses there, the roads there, the word development has perhaps disappeared. The poverty and destitution visible in people's lives seem to have been suppressed under the rule of the wealthy party. The aggression of RJD voters was clearly visible. Their campaign vehicles were stopped. Mud was thrown on them, cow dung was thrown. Later, there were also reports of stone-pelting. But this conversation must be heard, and the picture must be seen afterwards. The message is why we said the anti-incumbency is much sharper against the BJP. In this village, the entire crowd is coming forward. Send special forces. We will sit on a dharna right here. The SP of this administration, which is establishing goonda raj, is so weak and cowardly. He comes to the booth and says peacefully. When the candidate, the Deputy Chief Minister, is not being allowed to enter the village, stones and cow dung have been thrown at all the vehicles, then the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar is angry. He is scolding the police. He thinks the power is theirs. He thinks the power will come to them. But from the mood of the voters and if you keep this voting pattern in front, then in Lakhisarai, RJD's Amresh Kumar is facing Vijay Kumar Sinha. But more importantly, Jan Swaraj's Suraj Kumar is there, who is a Bhumihar himself, and targets the core voters of the BJP. And secondly, he is an educationist. Meaning, the pattern Jan Swaraj has chosen is how to target the BJP based on the caste and profession of the candidates, and it is an open book. Perhaps that is why the voting in Lakhisarai has started to indicate that it is difficult for Vijay Kumar Sinha. And similar difficulty is faced by Samrat Chaudhary in Tarapur. Facing him is RJD candidate Arun Shah. But Jan Swaraj's Santosh Singh is also targeting the core voters of the BJP, as Santosh Singh is a Rajput and also a physician. We said how much dent Jan Swaraj will make to the BJP by mixing caste and profession in this election. This question is emerging after the first phase of voting. Pay attention to Siwan. Mangal Pandey is from BJP. Awadh Bihari is from RJD. Here, Jan Swaraj has fielded a Muslim candidate. Meaning, Mangal Pandey has been spared. Intekhab Ahmed, a businessman, has been given a ticket by Jan Swaraj, and here Jan Swaraj has targeted the MY equation. Meaning, it is difficult for RJD in Siwan. So, tactfully, whom to target where is being done with great subtlety by the Jan Swaraj Party, or rather, by the pattern that Prashant Kishor follows, based on the data he has. Let's mention a few more seats, like Sahibganj. Here, Raju Kumar Singh is the BJP candidate, Prithvinath Raj is the RJD candidate. Here, Jan Swaraj has given a ticket to Thakur Harishor Singh, who is also targeting the core voters of the BJP, as Thakur Harishor Singh is from the Rajput caste, belonging to the Jan Swaraj Party. Meaning, where and how to increase votes. In Kunhi, Keshav Prasad Gupta is from RJD, Sunil Kumar Suman is from BJP, and here Jan Swaraj has fielded a Muslim candidate, Mohammad Ali Irfan, and has made a dent in RJD's MY equation, which was visible. Meaning, if you go further in this entire pattern, in Jale, Congress leader Rishi Kumar is in the field, Jivesh Kumar is from BJP. Here, Jan Swaraj has fielded Ranjit Sharma, who belongs to the Lohar caste, and here Mashkoor Ahmad Rahmani is an independent, who was a Congress candidate before and had won. This time he is in the field as an independent. Meaning, in one go, a setback for Congress and a clear path for BJP. This message is perhaps to achieve that politics through Jan Swaraj in the Bihar elections, where they are giving a message constituency by constituency: "We will form the government. We will come into power." Because the situation in Bihar has moved beyond those equations where any single group, i.e., NDA or Mahagathbandhan, can come to power on its own strength. That is why when you go to Darbhanga Sadar, Jan Swaraj has given a ticket to retired IG R.K. Mishra. Here, Sanjay Sarogi is from BJP, Umesh Sahni is from VIP. Here, Pushpam Priya Chaudhary of the Progral Party is also present. But Jan Swaraj is targeting the BJP. Look at the reserved seat Sonbarsa. Ritesh Sada is from Janata Dal (United), Sarita Devi is from Congress. Jan Swaraj has fielded Satyendra Kumar, who belongs to the Dusadh caste but is a retired teacher. In Amaur, which falls in the Saran region, Krishan Kumar Mantu is from BJP, Sunil Rai is from RJD. Here, by fielding Bhumihar Rahul Singh, they have sent a message to the voters, based on the mood of the voter numbers, whom to target and how, and that it should not be known. If you see this message in Pichhwara, Begusarai, then here Awadhesh Rai is from CPI. Here, Bhumihar Pramod Kunwar, who was previously with CPI (ML), is in the field, and Surendra Mahto of BJP is also in the field. Jan Swaraj has given a ticket to Pramod Kunwar, who was with CPI (ML) last time. Now think about who will be harmed here. In Bihar Sharif, Kushwaha Dinesh Kumar has been given a ticket. Dr. Sunil Kumar is from BJP, Shiv Kumar Yadav is from CPI. Here also, Dinesh Kumar is in a position to cut a large number of votes. In Kalyanpur, which is in the Samastipur region, by fielding the former Deputy Mayor Ram Balak Paswan, a dent has been made in the vote bank of Janata Dal (United)'s Maheshwar Hazari, and Ranjit Ram of CPI (ML) is in the field. With these things happening tactfully, when you come to Nalanda, Nitish Kumar's area, here Kumari Poonam Sinha, who was a district council member and belongs to the Kurmi caste, has been given a ticket by Jan Swaraj, and facing her is Kaushalendra Kumar alias Chhote Mukhiya, Shravan Kumar is from BJP. And if you turn around from there and come to Patna, then in Patna, Nitin Naveen is from BJP, Rekha Gupta is from RJD, and Bhumihar Vandana Kumari has been fielded. Now you might be thinking that the seats of two Deputy CMs are in danger, but what will be the situation of others? Especially on the important different seats, before going there, we think one thing should be analyzed in this voting pattern: if the votes have increased in such large numbers, 5% of votes can change the government. 10% of votes are like a tsunami against the government. But if there is no anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, or if Jan Swaraj's entry is bringing in new voters, then will these 5-10% votes go to their share? We think a picture should be seen here. A large number of women came out. Women also complained. Why is their name not on the voter list? They have a slip in their hand. A digital slip. The BLO said a digital slip will not work. One person has a digital slip, not an original slip. He said bring a digital slip. These events clearly indicate that it could be the effect of the new voter list in Bihar that such a large number of votes are being cast, and the wave is not visible in that form. An aggressive mood is visible. They said, "Yes, your vote has been cast." "Brother, how has our vote been cast? We haven't even cast our vote." We have Aadhaar card, all this. We have this paper too. We haven't cast our vote. So those people are police people. They are saying that your vote has been cast. My name is also showing. Voter ID card is also showing. They are saying that yours is forced. Is there any responsibility here? This is Anupama Sharma. Okay, did you also vote? They didn't let me vote. Why? Because they are saying there is no slip, and I didn't get a slip. I even told the serial number, and they ticked it there, but they said I won't be allowed to vote. Even though your name is there, everything is there. I have the serial number. I brought my ID card too. I brought my ID card too. I have the slip and all this with me. So the BLO didn't say that you have to bring a slip? So I downloaded and brought it, but they didn't say anything like that. Now going back and coming again is not possible. Absolutely not. How will it be done? No, because there was no slip. The BLO didn't give me a slip. So is it my fault if the BLO didn't give me a slip? I was told to download it digitally and keep it. I have it digitally downloaded. I have the digital slip. You bring the digital slip. Your name is on the digital list, and it's ticked. So sir, what are you saying here? You are saying you won't bring a slip, you won't be allowed to vote. So here they have the list, and they have marked your name on it. Yes, even then, they are not letting you vote. No, did you bring your voter ID card? What is your name? Shreya Mehta. My name is at serial number 17. We waited for a long time and then came at 6:30. We were the second voters, and we are leaving. We don't want to vote. And similar news came from different districts of Bihar, where voters were complaining, the police administration was stopping them, or no solution was emerging amidst all this. Despite this, look at the speed of voting. By 9 AM, 13% votes were cast. By 11 AM, 27% votes were cast. By 1 PM, 42% votes were cast. By 3 PM, 54% votes were cast. By 5 PM, it crossed 60%. And by 6 PM, it stood around 65%. This message is different from all previous elections because voting in Bihar was often low, and at least it can be said that even in places like Patna, voting never exceeded 50-55%, which has also broken its record this time. The biggest question here is about the VIP people, two Deputy CMs were contesting, the fate of 16 ministers was to be decided. In large numbers, for example, in Raghopur, Tejashwi Yadav is facing Satish Kumar Yadav. But here, Tejashwi Yadav is the Chief Ministerial face, so how will BJP's Satish Kumar Yadav survive? Although in 2010, Rabri Devi was defeated by a Janata Dal (United) candidate here. But this is not the case this time. In Chhapra, which has always been a BJP seat, in 2010, 2015, 2020. This time, Khesari Lal Yadav's prospects are much stronger, and the biggest reason for this is that Veena Devi, who was very popular within the BJP, the mayor of that place, was not given a ticket. Chhoti Kumari was given a ticket. She stood as an independent. The BJP's vote got divided between two women. Khesari Lal Yadav is also popular in his style, and after that, his prospects became very strong here. In Madhepura, Chandrashekhar of RJD, Kavita Kumari Sinha of Janata Dal (United). It is difficult to defeat RJD here because Yadavs are 32%, Muslims are 11%. Then what is left? Dalits are 17% here, and other economically backward classes are about 40%. So it is difficult to defeat Chandrashekhar here. The situation in Mokama is delicate because Mangal Pandey is in jail in Mokama, and Lalan Singh has taken full command. Here, Veena Devi, wife of Chandrabhan, is the RJD candidate, and if Anant Kumar does not win here, then Lalan Singh's prestige is at stake. In this entire situation, voting continued with full tension since morning, and this is a seat in Mokama that Veena Devi of RJD won last time. But before that, it went to an independent. Before that, it went to Janata Dal (United). Meaning, things have been changing. But despite this, RJD's influence and the aggression of Yadav votes, the talk of standing tall against the aggressive voters of Anant Kumar Singh, was clearly visible in Mokama. In Siwan, Mangal Pandey of BJP. In 2020, the RJD candidate won here. This time, Mangal Pandey's prospects appear strong here. But in Tarapur, which we mentioned regarding Samrat Chaudhary, he is in a precarious position. And in Saharsa, Alok Ranjan Jha is from BJP, Indrajit Gupta is from IIP. But this seat is considered to be BJP's stronghold in Saharsa. But in Alinagar, Maithili Thakur's prospects are not very strong. This seat was won by VIP (Mohalla Group) last time from VIP. BJP benefited because at that time Mukesh Sahni was allied with NDA. This time Vinod Mishra has been given a ticket, who is from RJD. Here, but despite all this, uncertainty was clearly visible among voters regarding Maithili Thakur. Now, one question is also whether the voters are really aggressive, Tejashwi Yadav is the Chief Ministerial face, the percentage of votes is high, so has the police administration started thinking that a change of government is happening? You have seen the incident in Lakhisarai. Let us show you the situation in Danapur, where there is a constituency across the river, meaning polling booths, where one can only go by boat. The police are stopping the boats and preventing people from voting. They are preventing people from voting. The government will be formed, and people are being prevented from voting for RJP. They are being repeatedly told to stop, stop. Why stop? You are depriving people of their right to vote. The people of Danapur will not tolerate this. Everyone has the right to vote in a democracy, and this is what is happening by the BJP, which should not happen, and the people of Bihar will not tolerate it. So, are RJD voters really being stopped or were they stopped? We think, leaving all this aside, to understand the entire equation of these 121 seats, three things need to be understood. Whose seats are increasing? Jan Swaraj has made a new entry. How many seats can it reach, or will it only cause damage? And the third situation is, if so many voters have come out of their homes, why have they come out? The Left had 11 seats out of 121 last time, which will decrease this time. VIP had four MLAs out of these 121 last time. This will decrease this time. LJP fought on its own strength and won only one seat. Its seats might increase. Congress had won eight seats. It will remain more or less in its old position. But will it be able to move forward? This is an impossible situation. It might decrease, it will not increase. The matter has come down to RJD, BJP, and Janata Dal (United). Janata Dal (United) had won 23 seats, which will not be less than 23 this time. But BJP had won 32 seats, which might decrease this time. And RJD had also won 42 seats, which, in a way, it got the maximum seats in the first phase itself. The second phase includes about 33 seats. In this first phase, if this voting pattern is indeed a direction of change of government, then RJD's seats might increase. Otherwise, in this entire process, Jan Swaraj, which has emerged as a new party, its position in these places has come to about 10 to 15 seats, which is a very big message. Where are those seats coming from? Are some seats coming from BJP? Some from RJD? Some from Janata Dal (United)? Or are they coming from VIP, Left, or Congress, which are being mentioned? No. This is a completely new situation that is openly causing the most damage to the BJP. It is also taking a large vote bank of Janata Dal (United) with it. It is directly challenging RJD and making a dent in its MY equation. It is a challenge to Congress, both ideologically, and amidst all this, the entire hype of BJP as the ruling party, the thought of advancing the anti-incumbency against BJP more than against Nitish Kumar, has been the idea of Jan Swaraj Party, meaning Prashant Kishor. This entire role indicates that in the old equations that were going on, it was often mentioned that the politics of this country is divided into two parts. Either you are with Modi or against him. The situation of the Bihar election is completely different. Here, people are still continuously searching for a new Bihar. Caste equations have not broken, but the only community united based on caste equations is the Muslim community, in such a way that if BJP can be defeated, defeat it. Otherwise, whether it is the economically backward class, the situation among Yadavs, the situation among the upper classes, or the backward class, there is a division among all of them. And this is the message that claims a new equation in Bihar. At least regarding the first phase, and the second phase after this first phase will decide whether new equations will be formed for power in Bihar, meaning how important the post-election situation will be in Bihar. Start preparing for it from now on, because the message from the 121 seats is very clear. Power is not going towards NDA on its own strength, nor is the alliance forming on its own strength for the Mahagathbandhan, because RJD has an upper hand, but the position of Left, Congress, VIP is not as strong as Tejashwi Yadav has appeared in the first phase with the aggression of his party and his voters. Thank you very much. Thank you very much.