Transcription
And hello to everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Sunday, September 14, 2025. And today, as you know for those who follow me, we will look a little at the scenarios that can happen at the end of September and possibly even in October. We will see, in any case, the future scenario in the medium term, that is to say, not in the short term, meaning not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, but in the medium to long term, meaning in a week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, or even a month. This week, however, we had a relatively green week, as we can see here. It's extremely pleasing. Well, we're not taking Myx into account, I had spoken to you about it in a video, but we're not necessarily taking it into account. Yes, it exploded, exploded, but generally speaking, look, we still had good values. We still saw a recovery on Total 3. We will go and see it. By the way, yesterday, I made a small mistake that I will correct in this video. It's not a big deal, you'll see. But now, the fact is, will we go higher? Will we not have a correction? We know that next week, there will also be the big news from Jerome Powell about the interest rate cut. Will it be 0.25, 0.50? Will he not cut at all in the end? Well, I don't believe that at all. The minimum for me will be 0.25. But how will the news be perceived? Will we have a "sell the news"? You know, we hear about it everywhere, and that's why, despite this rise, the atmosphere remains relatively gloomy. We can see it, look at the Fear and Greed Index, which remains truly neutral. We see that people are still relatively afraid. They are afraid of this "sell the news." So, what can happen? Well, we will look at all these scenarios, what I think in this daily update, and we will start immediately with the BTC chart since that's where everything will play out. Remember, if you follow a little, especially the Sunday daily updates, you know that we have two dates here, September 22nd and September 29th. Why? Because it's correlated here with the Global M2, and we know that on these dates, we start to see a small correction on the Global M2, and moreover, I personally think that I can delete this here, I'm doing it with you, September 22nd, because for me, we will not start to fall on September 22nd, but possibly later, on September 29th.
Now, as we know with our friend BTC, we have left a lot of liquidity to the south. We can see it here, I had noted it with all these white lines. So we know that there is a lot of liquidity to be recovered to the south. We can also see it on the chart. Here, I've set it to one month. So we see that we have, yes, indeed, a lot of liquidity to the north, which is extremely positive because it means that we have an interest in going to seek liquidity to the north. But we also see that we still have a lot of liquidity to the south. Now, to know, I kept telling you in the various daily updates that we were going to go get it, we were going to go get it, and in the end, we didn't. You see, we continued to grind, grind, grind. I told you that as long as we hadn't broken this previous high, we still had the possibilities to go get the liquidity to the south and that we had a small compression triangle, and that if we broke one way or the other, we would either go get the liquidity to the south or get the liquidity to the north. We broke to the north. Personally, it wasn't the scenario I preferred, but it's what the market gave us. We have to deal with it. And so, we captured the liquidity to the north. And that's exactly what we saw here. We captured this entire pocket of liquidity. Now, the question is, will we leave this liquidity to the south? Will we go get it? Will we not go "to the moon"? Well, that's what we will try to determine in this video. So, so first of all, and we know well that BTC is also a little conditioned by traditional finance. And what is happening currently in traditional finance? Well, you just have to look, for example, at the S&P 500 here. So I'm on daily. We see what we did. We had a week where we made another new ATH, we made another new high on the S&P 500. If we look, for example, at the Nasdaq, what did we do? Well, we made another new ATH on the Nasdaq. This means that there is still liquidity going into the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. So if liquidity is going into the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, well, it's not going into BTC. Naturally, liquidity cannot go everywhere at the same time. However, I had told you that we were probably reaching tops, highs on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and that possibly we would start to stagnate a little or even fall a little. What does that mean? It means there will be profit-taking. I still believe that will happen when we reach such highs. At some point, there will be profit-taking, which is totally normal. And what will profit-taking do? It will mean that investors will recover their gains and invest them in what? In a slightly riskier asset. And after that, what will it be? It will be BTC, of course. I hope you understood that well. And so there will be a liquidity rotation, and therefore BTC could explode very, very quickly and very, very strongly. So now that we've seen that, we understand well that traditional finance is making new records, new ATHs on ATHs, and so we know that there will probably be profit-taking very soon. Who will benefit from it? BTC, among others. And so BTC could take off very, very strongly. Now, we have a very difficult zone to pass here. It will be the RLZ short, right? I indicated it to you yesterday in the daily update. So, what can we do? Well, very simply, first of all, I will, hop, clean up the chart a little since I'm going to scribble on it. Hop, there. Let's make it a bit cleaner. The RLZ short here played its role a little. Perfect. So, we know that we have liquidity to the south. We know that we could return to the RLZ long, which is right here. Now, here are the scenarios I see. First, it's Sunday. We know very well that on Sunday, there can be volatility. That is to say, we can really go strongly up or very strongly down. Generally, it's Sunday evening to prepare for the market opening on Monday. So, first of all, what will we do? So, first scenario, tonight, we go and push really into the RLZ short. We stay there Monday, Tuesday, and possibly we wait for Jerome Powell's news on Wednesday, and then we have the "sell the news." "Sell the news" will hurt extremely badly. It's generally a very big drop. And so, boom, we go down very strongly to capture all the liquidity to the south, I remind you, all the liquidity that awaits us here at a minimum of 110,000. And if we go a little lower, to 105,000-107,000, that would be even better. So, we have a big drop to capture all these pockets of liquidity, and then we rebuild very, very quickly. It was really to liquidate people. We rebuild very, very quickly, and then, on the other hand, we go very, very strongly upwards and we will aim for a new ATH at 130,000-135,000-140,000. In short, in this zone here, the essential thing is that we will seek all the liquidity to the north and we will make a new ATH. This is scenario number 1, and we will see what happens afterwards, because the scenario after September 29th is almost the same, whether it's scenario 1 or scenario 2 that I see currently. So this is scenario 1 that can happen very quickly. That is to say, today, tonight, we pump, we wait for Jerome Powell's news, we dump quickly to capture liquidity, and we go up very strongly. That is to say, here, we are rejected, right? Here, it makes a wick. That is to say, here, there would be a real wick, a bit like here. Look, we go to get all the liquidity. We are almost immediately brought back up to then move on. There, it's a wick like that that I'm talking about. So, we could really make a big wick that lasts a very short time. We go get the liquidity and we move on. I think you understood well. This is scenario number 1. Now, scenario number 2. Well, starting tonight, we will go and get the liquidity to the south. That is to say, we start by going to get the liquidity to the south. I will delete this. Hop, hop, because anyway, the scenario will be almost the same afterwards. There. And anyway, you have the video if you want to rewatch the lines. So, scenario number 2, we will first go get the liquidity. Tonight, we will go get it, we make a big dump, and then we rebuild upwards quickly to aim for this RLZ short. We stagnate a bit, we might get rejected a little here, and at Jerome Powell's announcement on Wednesday, we pump very, very strongly and we will go and capture all the liquidity. So you have understood well, first of all, it's either we go directly into the RLZ short and we get rejected from the RLZ short and we go lower at Jerome Powell's announcement, and therefore we have a "sell the news." Or we go lower first, we capture the liquidity, we quickly go back into the RLZ short, we wait for Monday, Tuesday, we stagnate in uncertainty, and at Jerome Powell's announcement, we don't have a "sell the news" but we have a market explosion and we go higher. So, we see the two scenarios. Either we have a "sell the news," or we have a market explosion. So, currently, these are the two scenarios I see. Of course, there can be many others, but I'm showing you what I think. And there is, of course, a third scenario. And the third scenario is what? Well, it's that we don't do much here. We don't do much. Hop, we pump into the RLZ, we get rejected a tiny bit, and then we take off with Jerome Powell's news. And all this liquidity that is to the south, we leave it alone. So, this is a scenario where we don't go get the liquidity. However, we will have left a lot of liquidity to the south, and well, the market, we know very well that it doesn't like to leave too much liquidity. So, what will happen afterwards? Well, we will take our friend Global M2 here. And what can we see on the Global M2? Well, what we can see here is that you see, starting from September 20th, here, we have a really big, big surge on the Global M2, and it's very vertical here. You see, from September 27th to 28th. Here, in a single day, it's extremely, extremely vertical. It's a very, very strong surge. And so, well, the surge is very, very strong. Clearly, well, it will be the last candle where we will pump very strongly before turning around. And yes, we will turn around. Why? Because we see very well that the Global M2 here, well, it has fallen sharply afterwards. Sharply. Be careful, relatively speaking. Look, we fell sharply, here we didn't fall sharply, but we had a drop. So we had a significant drop. So we will have a drop on BTC because if there can be a decoupling with the Global M2 when the Global M2 rises and BTC falls, there can be this decoupling. But on the other hand, you should know that when the Global M2 falls, BTC falls. Here, the decoupling doesn't exist. That is to say, when the Global M2 rises, BTC can decouple and fall. This means that liquidity is going elsewhere, right, into the S&P 500, into the Nasdaq, into traditional finance. On the other hand, when the Global M2 falls, BTC is almost always correlated, it falls as well. So, when we see the date of September 29th here, we are almost sure, between quotation marks, nothing is sure in cryptocurrency, of course, but there are very high probabilities that we will indeed have this drop. So, I had told you that from this date, you see, we had seen, we had already drawn lines where we were supposed to fall. Well, the future scenarios are what? We will delete the small lines. So, we will even delete everything, so that at least we have a relatively clear map. And now, we will try to determine if we are not going to go get this liquidity here, then, in your opinion, what will happen? Well, it will simply happen that, hop, we will delete everything here too. It will simply happen that if we pump and we go to 130,000, 140,000, 150,000, in short, it doesn't matter. Whatever ATH we reach, well, there are still high probabilities that during this correction, we will go and get precisely this liquidity before potentially moving on and making the last bullish phase. Also, be careful, the last bullish phase will be determined by the Global M2. In the Global M2 here, we are all waiting for one thing: that we strongly resume upwards. Currently, it's good, we see that we have a new rise, but on the other hand, it's not significant. We don't have a big, big pump. I'm not saying it has to be vertical, but it should go up a little more here. And unfortunately, well, as long as we don't see that, we can't determine the last bullish phase. But we are in probabilities, we are in supposition, and we say that the Global M2 will continue to rise here. Normally, it should continue to rise since there will be an interest rate cut by Jerome Powell. So money will be easier, money will cost less. So we should see a Global M2 normally rise. Well, that's in fiction for now, but we're betting on it. So, well, there are high probabilities that if we don't go get this liquidity, well, during this drop, we will indeed go and get all this liquidity. So we could go from 130,000-140,000 to 110,000 without any problem, or even 105,000. And so that would hurt quite a bit. Let's assume, let's compromise between the two, let's go to $137,000. If we go and get it here, well, you see, we will have a -20% to -23% to -24%. We'll see how far we go, but a drop of -20% on BTC. So yes, it will hurt extremely badly, and especially since it will force a lot of people out. A lot of people here will announce a market top. That's it, we've made the last bullish phase, it's over. We're going to get liquidity to the south, and here many people will sell, sell, sell, sell and get trapped on the last bullish phase. In any case, this is what, firstly, I hope for, and it's what I think will happen. We've already seen here that a lot of people have created FUD and said, "That's it, we've made the market double top. And it's over. We've captured the liquidity here and we've been rejected. So that's it, it's over. The bull run is over. We've seen quite a few YouTubers on this. I've always told you that I absolutely disagreed. And so, well, here's clearly what I think. And on the other hand, if we have already captured the liquidity, if we do scenario 1, scenario 2, in both cases, I remind you that we will go get the liquidity. It's just that either we will arrive first in the RLZ short and we will be rejected, we will go get the liquidity, or we will go get the liquidity first and then we will go look for the RLZ short. But in the first two scenarios, we will go get this liquidity. Well, quite simply, if we go get the liquidity first, well, it's simply that the retracement here will probably be less deep. Instead of going to get, for example, down to $105,000 to get all this liquidity, well, we could have a retracement that simply stops, for example, at the previous highs, which are here. Hop, I'll circle it, I'll delete everything afterwards, but around 120,000. That is to say, we could have a small retracement to 120,000 before moving on, which would hurt much less. So we would go from 130,000-140,000 to 120,000. Okay? We would still lose 20k, but we wouldn't go as low as here. So, in your opinion, what is the best scenario? Do we go get the liquidity before or after September 29th? Well, if I had to personally tell you the scenario that I think has the most chance of happening, well, it's scenario number 3. It's the last one. Why? Because simply here, in this phase of decline where we will go and get all the liquidity to the south, we can make a lot, a lot of people lose, and we can force a lot of people out who will truly believe that it's the end of the cycle. And that, I remind you, the goal of the market is what? Well, it's to make the maximum number of people lose, not to make them win. So, by doing, between quotation marks, a fake end of cycle, that is to say, we pumped, we made a new record, and then we fall, we fall, we fall, we fall, and we will probably go and get the liquidity below this low. Well, that would even mean breaking the structure here. There will be a lot, a lot of capitulation, a lot of people leaving the market who will truly think it's the end, while we will have a last big, big bullish phase. Again, I remind you, it will be extremely dependent on the Global M2 here. If, however, we see the Global M2 stagnate here and even fall, well, this phase here, you have to eliminate it. It will not exist. This last bullish phase will not exist, and therefore, indeed, it will possibly be necessary to exit the market. What is really very, very important here will be to follow the Global M2. It will be to follow, of course, the macroeconomic news, and also, we will have to follow what is happening on the S&P 500 here, the Nasdaq, and even on two other elements. What are the two other elements? Well, it will be silver, that is to say, silver, and copper here. Why? Well, because there is something that is extremely important too, you know, and it is extremely watched, it is the manufacturing index. And the manufacturing index, you should know that we can predict whether it will be up or down. So, you understand well that if the manufacturing index is up, that is to say, well, there is more and more production. So, well, if we produce more, it's because there are more sales, the economy is doing better, and therefore, it's favorable for the country. If the manufacturing index falls and falls sharply, well, naturally, it means that industries are producing little. If they produce little, well, there is a risk of what? Well, there is a risk of a wave of unemployment because if there is not enough work, there will be layoffs. So, naturally, it's not good for the country either. Unemployment risks increasing, and therefore, well, it's not good for the economy. And how can we determine this? Precisely with silver and copper. And why with silver and copper? Well, simply because they are raw materials that are heavily purchased precisely for production. And you see currently, what do we see? Well, we see that silver is truly exploding upwards. And the fact that it's exploding relatively upwards is not simply because gold is also making ATH after ATH. I remind you that gold is truly correlated with a store of value. Silver, well, it's not necessarily correlated with a store of value, but rather with a raw material that is used. And so, making ATH after ATH with silver means that there is a strong demand for silver. Then, we have copper. Copper, here, we see this big candle. But this big candle is simply due to tariffs. Tariffs, I remind you that well, many industries bought copper very heavily before the implementation of Donald Trump's tariffs to avoid paying more. And once the tariffs, in the end, well, fell through or were significantly reduced, well, they had to get rid of all the stock they had. In short, we still see that well, copper, it's also increasing, increasing, increasing, and so despite this big drop here because they had to destock, we see that the industry in general has also bought copper, so has bought raw materials. And so, what is it for? Well, it's for production. So we know that the manufacturing PMI, in particular, will be up, and currently it is up, right? I think it's recently at 53, which is really positive. And so, all this was to tell you what? Well, it was simply to tell you that well, I remain relatively bullish for the future, for the end of this year. I truly believe that we can continue to pump, that these scenarios, whether it's scenario 1, scenario 2, scenario 3, you've seen that the resolution remains bullish and that we will go for 130,000, 140,000, perhaps 150,000, in short, we will see that we will have a correction afterwards. And then, we will have to look precisely at all this new information. We will have to see if there continues to be buying of raw materials, copper, silver. We will have to look at the macroeconomic news, of course. There will also be Jerome Powell who will continue or not to lower rates. All this will have to be monitored. Today, I'm giving you certain scenarios that can, of course, change hands. The essential thing is not to dig in your heels, it's to look at what's happening in the market and to be able to adapt as quickly as possible to the situation if we see a market change. So that's it, team, that was all for this daily update. I hope it brought you a lot of value, that you understood a lot of things. Tell me in the comments if you are thinking about scenario 1, scenario 2, or scenario 3. Again, anyway, we will follow all this. I will also follow the Global M2 for you. So don't hesitate to click the subscribe button. First, if you learned things in this daily update, second, if you appreciate my content, and third, because it gives strength to the channel. On that, team, have an excellent Sunday. Smash that like button and give me a maximum of comments. Tell me the scenario you prefer, the one you think will especially come true. I'll tell you tomorrow in the daily update, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!