Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, October 11, 2025. And there you will tell me you are doing great. Not everyone is doing great. Some are doing liquidly, you know. There were investors who took a big hit. There was even bad news that came out that a Ukrainian investor, well unfortunately, I won't say the word but because he must have lost all his fortune, part of his fortune. I even saw big American accounts. A guy who said it took me over a year to earn a million and a half and in 1 hour I lost 2 million. So you see, so basically not everyone is in the same boat and that the crash that happened yesterday. Some really lost a lot and if some of you, you little fools, had lost, well I send you big kisses. Know that I am with you. It's hard, the crypto market is very hard. So don't hesitate to talk about it in the comments. We are here to support each other. Feel free to come on the Telegram channel wherever you want. We support each other during the entire bear market. We spent 2 years supporting each other. So those who are going through a bad period, well come, come talk to us. We are here to support you friends, okay? So it's in tough periods like these that we need to talk to each other, to give each other a little boost. So don't hesitate to come. Then there's the opposite, there are those who took advantage of yesterday's crash who are very happy. There are those who bought on the exchanges, the markets, for example Coinbase, Binance, Biget, all that, it crashed. I invite you to join us on Bingings which showed resilience. Because there was nothing, it didn't crash, it was perfect. Well, so thank you, so there are those who were very happy, who did their shopping, they were very joyful and you were right to do your shopping. Now, can the market continue to fall? Yes, we'll look at that. Personally, well, I did my Bitcoin shopping, of course, on the crashes. So, I'm among the people who are rather happy to have seen this crash. Especially since since this summer, I was prepared, as I told you, I spent the whole summer putting stablecoins aside because well, it didn't smell good. I told you that all summer. Well, well, it paid off. Yesterday, I was also lucky, you have to say it. Well, I'm naturally very cautious. As soon as I sense something is wrong, I immediately take what's necessary. Sword, shield as usual. Well, so don't hesitate for those who are not doing well to come talk to us on Telegram, Discord, we are here for you friends. So the market is of course red, red, red, the crypto market, a crash, it's really a crash, a simple purge, it's the biggest purge in terms of dollars in the entire history of cryptos. Which is logical because cryptos are high. Okay. There have been purges in previous years. Yes, there was the Covid crash, there was the FTX crash and since cryptos were much weaker in capitalization and price, it hurt less. And there, given that well, it's at 100,000 and all cryptos are quite high, well, it hurt more. The stock market also, it was here the first, it's not a stock market purge, it means the first big corrective candle since well, Trump's tariffs. So since around January to April, there was correction in those months and since April the stock market has only gone straight up, straight up. And there the stock market took a little hit, a little bump on the head and now the stock market will be a bit shaken. So on Monday when the institutional and professional investors return, let's see if this is not the beginning of a small corrective phase and that would mean that cryptos will follow. Well, we will of course look at all that. So, regarding Bitcoin ETFs, the week ends with a small sale of 4.5 million. So, did they not end up being too much of sellers or did they not have time to sell? So, we will see on Monday if on Monday we see - 300 million - 500 million and that well, they didn't have time to sell on Friday. So the week still ends positively because this week, just Monday and Tuesday, there were 2 billion in Bitcoin purchases. In fact, we had 2.5 billion in Bitcoin purchases this week. So at the ETF level, they were very supportive. After that, well, there was this flash crash, this monumental purge, this cascade of liquidations of astronomically powerful longs. Well, at the Ethereum level, well, the week also ends in the green. So we'll say Monday was canceled by Friday with sales of 175 million on Friday but otherwise it ended with a plus of 400 million. So it's not bad. The market is of course in fear. Will the market continue to fall, fall a little bit to catch all the big wicks and put here the extreme zone? Well, tell yourself that extreme zones are the best moments. The best moments to buy, simply. Well, so for all the altcoins here, the total 3, in fact, it represents the top 125 altcoins, if you want, the top 100 altcoins, basically, but I removed, I removed the stablecoins too, they are too big, like removing all the stablecoins too, to see a bit what the top 100 is doing, okay, well, and so there we see the top 100 took about - 41% on average. Some took less like Solana which did - 20, some took more like XRP which did - 55. Lots of altcoins did - 60 - 80. Yesterday, we were live for several hours, it was a complete carnage. So big up to you friends, be strong. For now, the closing was very good. What is amazing is that the altcoins did - 41 on average but immediately it closed on a small + 42. So it's sure that those who were able to buy the dip on their exchanges if their exchanges were working. Don't hesitate to take a look at Bing, you'll see the link in the description, it works well. But those who bought well at the bottom on Bing, well directly it's nice because you're already in profit. You're already in profit of + 30 + 40, you see. So cryptos, it depends on where you find them, it can be quite good too. Well, as long as the 200-day moving average holds here, which is the average price, let's say of the top 100 altcoins over the last 200 days at 709 billion dollars, as long as that holds, it's good news. That is to say, it can create a nice bottom here around this 200-day moving average and try to move on. So we'll see if a nice bottom will be created there. If a bottom is not created, that is to say we see a big candle breaking this 200-day moving average, it would mean a return to the bottom of the wick here, unfortunately, you see. So everything will be played out on the moon. At least it will be precise, it will be perfect, you see. Breaking the 200-day moving average, direction, retesting the wick. Very often in finance, we retest the big wicks. Okay, why? Because here you had very little liquidity exchange. There, this wick, it lasted 15 minutes. 15 minutes. I was lucky, you know. Last night, I arrived, I turned off the computer from standby and it was 11:30 PM, the big wick going down on Bingxs. I had already prepared all my stablecoins for quite some time. I felt that it didn't smell good. Anyway, all week, I was calling for shorts on the VIP trading channel or in any case, I was looking for shorts, simply, and because it stank, everything was ready. I did buy buy buy buy and boom, but you had a 15-minute window there, it was so clear. And why do I say that? Since it was fast, in 15 minutes, well, let's say 15 to 30 minutes, it means there was little exchange and so it could come back to fill the order book there, if you want, that's why. And if the 200-day moving average is lost, we will retest the bottom of the wick and the weekly 200-day moving average, which is the biggest long-term support for altcoins. And tomorrow we will do the long-term weekly analysis as every Sunday to see a bit where we could go in the coming weeks. Will this closing of the weekly candle, which will happen tomorrow night at 2 AM, change the direction for the long term in terms of whether we are going into a bear market or are we still in a bull market? Some will say well Foufi is obliged, we are in a bear market. Well, maybe not, you see. So we'll see tomorrow for the long-term analysis. So for now, here's the momentum, nothing to hide from you. Remember this structure, small A, small B, small C. It's the regular structure we've been following since August, since this summer. And well, this small A, small B, small C, which has more probability of falling. Well, look. So it made a small pullback here, but boom. So that's it. So it validated the structure. That's it, it validated this regular well because it broke this level. It went to look for the re-accumulation zone of the entire movement there and now it's rather buying. So for now, well, we wait and we'll see if the 200-day moving average will hold or not. Regarding our beloved Bitcoin. So it's sure that those who are 100% Bitcoin like me. So attention, it's not because we are 100% Bitcoin that we say that Bitcoin is the only best, the rest is crap. Not at all. I like everything else a lot. The whole of crypto is everything, it's an ecosystem in its own right. It's altcoins, it's memecoins, it's NFTs, it's everything. It's not good for there to be only Bitcoin and the rest to disappear. True Bitcoin maxis want only Bitcoin and to die the rest. I say that everything is good. I am a Bitcoin maxi. I only have Bitcoin because I have confidence only in Bitcoin in the very long term. I'm here for the very long term, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, like the stock market, you know, for retirement. So and I have confidence only in Bitcoin for the long term, but it's not because I'm 100% Bitcoin that I say the rest is crap. It's a prudent investment to be 100% Bitcoin. And I'm rather a prudent investor. After, everyone does what they want with their money. And so, of course, those like me who are 100% Bitcoin, well yesterday it was just a little tingle, a small - 13%, a - 13 on Bitcoin which closed at - 7%. Well, it was a bit like, that's all. Whereas for some, it was not - 7% at closing, it was - 70 on altcoins. Well, yes, when you're on altcoins, you expect big gains, but you also expect - 70 in 1 hour. Well, no one expects - 70 in 1 hour, clearly. Well, but you understand the idea? So, note the gaps here. So the gaps, you should know that well, you'll laugh because the gap here at 110,000, well, it's not filled. Why? Because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the place here for Bitcoin futures contracts, the Bitcoin exchange closed at 16990 dollars. So we have a bullish gap at 16990 dollars to go for. And yes, so this bullish gap at 16990, well, I'm marking it with green, very pretty, very big, because well, we're going to go for this little gap, you see. We're sure we're going to go for it, you see, even a bit smaller. So there's this gap to go for. So now you understand well that well, we'll go eat the 16990. However, the question will be asked, will we go for a little tour on the 100-day moving average again, again the 100-day moving average like on the altcoins, everything will be played out there. If Bitcoin can build a nice bottom, the biggest support which is at 106500, which is its 200-day moving average. If it holds, if it tests the wick a bit, but this 200-day moving average manages to hold, it can make a nice bottom because it's a big support and go back to the moon. Clearly, it can do that, but for that, it needs to set a bottom, it needs to create it, it needs to make a foundation, something solid, you see. Well, and in that case, yes. So Bitcoin, of course, so the gap, I'll leave it here and the gap at 110,000, but there's the gap at 92,000. So I'll enlarge it so we can see things a bit better. Okay. So this correction, you have to be careful. Potentially, it has triggered perhaps here, well, a correction to correct the entire movement since 74,000 dollars. So you just have to be careful about that, where we can have the big A here. I'll explain that to you tomorrow too in the long term. All this is B. And then there can be the start of a wave C to make a running flat, which is a bullish structure, a structure in the mode of going to the moon. But you still have a C to eat. Okay. And this running flat is a long-term weekly structure, I talk about it every Sunday. That is to say, the big B Bitcoin could go for 130, 135, 140, 145, I told you that every weekend, every Sunday, it can do that. However, when the wave C of this running flat is made, well, Bitcoin will fill its gap with very high probability of filling its gap at 92,000. So the question we ask ourselves, that I ask myself, is whether this is the start of the big wave C of the big running flat, you see here to go for the gap. And why the gap, you can tell me, why will it go for the gap? Because in addition, the gap is right in the middle of the long re-accumulation zone of this big movement, you see. So this gap is well placed. So wave C could aim between 94 and 85. I'm not saying wave C is starting now, it's going. I'm saying it remains a possibility because it has broken the lows. And when you have a structure that goes up and makes a big shoot and breaks the lows, it strongly increases the probabilities of starting a new wave. That's why I'm talking about it. Well, so if we see Bitcoin fall, fall, fall and break 105,000, basically, what will be the answer? Well, it will be if we see it break the 200-day moving average. Like the altcoins, it breaks the 200-day moving average here at 106,500, it's direction the big wave C that will dip. Well, now below, there's no more liquidity. Ah, that's normal. It would be a shame if there was no liquidity. So I'm sure there are people who will place big longs, but I think that it has purged so much that it has calmed people down, clearly. It shocked them. It shocked them so much that this wick was violent, you don't want to place a long anymore. Ah no no, it's fine, I don't want to anymore. Are you sure? The market will go up, I'm too scared. Well, so that's why with this rise, there weren't actually many longs placed. After, the problem is that the purge happened at 11:30 PM after the stock market closed. Strange, still strange, that it happened at that time. Really very, very strange. Very, very strange. Are we talking about the whales who opened shorts for almost a billion, a whale who opened a short for almost a billion dollars and who put their balls in gold 30 minutes before Trump's declaration. Are we talking about this big shoot that happened at 11:30 PM just at the close of the American markets? No, that doesn't concern us, as the Inconnus used to say. Can we talk about conspiracy? Can we talk about things like that? We'll keep it to ourselves. Well, so since there isn't too much liquidity to the south, Bitcoin could nibble and go for, well, first of all, the bullish gap at 116990 to eat a bit of shorts and then we'll see if it will create a nice bottom. Will it go up, bottom on the 200 and go back or go up to the gap and boom explode downwards and it will be direction hell for the big wave C weekend? We'll see that tomorrow. Well, Ethereum now, Ethereum took a small - 20. Well, a bit of a hit, but it's still okay. And it closed at a small - 12. So that's very good. That's what we expect from the number 2 crypto, that it be quite robust, not as robust as Bitcoin, but we're not far off. Bitcoin - 13, - 20. So listen, bravo Ethereum, it showed that it was quite robust. Those who bought the dip here, very good. Ethereum, look at its 200-day moving average and its average price over the last 200 days at 3107. So if Ethereum breaks its lower Bollinger band at 3750 here with a red candle like this, it breaks it. It will be the widening of the Bollinger band and it will be a small sliding effect towards the 200-day moving average at 3100 and why not this gap that reaches 2853 because it has a gap to close at 2853. It has no bullish gap. It only has bearish gaps for Ethereum. Okay. So there, well, if it breaks the lower Bollinger, hello the 200-day moving average and that's where it can try to catch, to create real support to then move on. In any case, it's there that it can create strong support. Now, at the structural level, it has corrected the entire rise that was made between 3300 and the all-time high or 4900, about 60. It did all that, it went to look for the long re-accumulation zone here, which held well, Ethereum was very bought, it pushed, and then boom, and we are in the long re-accumulation zone. So now everything will be played out here. If Ethereum starts to break 3346, this low, it will smell bad. You see, we will really say, pray that the 200-day moving average holds, otherwise it's death. Otherwise, it means well, it will start to make a purge, a purge and correct its entire rise since 2000 dollars, you see? And so the entire rise since 2000 dollars, it means a Bitcoin that will go for its gap at 92,000 and an Ethereum that will go for its gap for example at 2853 because it has a gap at 2853 and a gap at 173 too, you see. So if Bitcoin goes towards 92,000, well, it will do another - 25 to go for this gap and everyone will go for their gaps. Okay, these famous gaps which have a very high probability of being filled. At the futures level, well, it crashed down hard, of course, there are still longs being placed but the market is much more filled with shorts. So will it, during Monday's opening, go for the bullish gaps a bit, the shorts before falling again or will it go directly to the moon? Well, the fact that there are quite a few shorts to the north. Well, at some point, you have to take care of the shorts, you know. Here, the market took care of the longs, but at some point, well, you validate. At the Solana level, it did a small - 23. So, bravo to Solana, very robust, as robust as Ethereum, you know. A small - 23 which closed at a small - 14. Well, listen, it's bravo when next to it, you have lots of altcoins that did - 60, 70, 80. Well, bravo to Solana which has shown its robustness. Now, Solana, it's a very nice chart. It went to look for its 200-day moving average at 171, which is the average price of Solana over the last 200 days, which is the biggest daily support, on the last 200 days. I mean daily, why is it the biggest support? The biggest support, you can have the 250, 300, whatever moving average you want. It's the most watched moving average, the 200, the one that is most coded into algorithms, trading robots, and traders look at the 200-day moving average. You see, that's how it is, it's good, it's always been like that. Well, and so, so this moving average holds at 172, it can try to set a bottom there. But a bottom takes quite a few days, you see, to set. If it sets a bottom, it's a 200-day moving average, it can take off again. If the 200-day moving average is broken, it's a Solana that is heading towards its gap at 121 dollars. That means it's death for everyone. So Solana made a big purge of this movement that goes up to 253 dollars. It went to look for the re-accumulation zone once where the bulls well supported their zone, it's their territory, and then purge, and the bulls still supported. So there it is in the re-accumulation zone. So everything will be played out here. If the bulls manage to hold and make a small bottom here next to the 200-day moving average, it will take off again. If it falls, if it breaks this low at 156, it's direction death. But that means everyone is falling, that Bitcoin is heading for the big C, Ethereum is heading for 2008, Solana is heading for a minimum of 120, or even 100. You understand the idea? At the liquidation level, well, there's nothing left to the south. Okay, there's not much left. Well, yes, of course, there are some longs placed here and there, but there's nothing more to liquidate to the north. So let's hope that attracts everyone. So the Palme d'Or for the correction of large-cap cryptos goes to this magnificent XRP. Okay, XRP, total disappointment. I don't have any XRP, but when I see that XRP has done - 55% while it's one of the largest cap altcoins in the entire crypto universe, I say to myself, what a big joke, you see. So I don't have XRP. So, I imagine those who are in XRP, you want to take XRP and throw it at its CEO, you see. Well, so XRP - 55. So, - 55, you went for the oversold zone, of course. So, it's a very good zone to buy. So, it's on XRP that it quickly went from around 2.80 to 1.23. Well, yes, to buy, it's good. However, it completely blew up the chart. You'll understand why. So from - 55, it still closed at - 15, you see. So big cleanup and buyback, buyback, buyback of XRP, buyback of XRP. This smells of manipulation. I'm not going to be a conspiracy theorist Foufi, but - 55 closing at - 15, newcomers will say it's great, XRP was bought by everyone. For me, it smells of manipulation. The big whale who dumped on XRP and bought back lower, it smells of market maker manipulation by big whales at the XRP level, you see. That is to say, they have big bags and with big bags, they can do big things. So the gap at 213, at 2 dollars 13 for XRP, it's still there. It's the big joke. Well, yes, since it happened after the market close, XRP did - 55 but the gap on futures contracts is still there. Okay, that's the big joke. Well, XRP, which broke its 200-day moving average, it's below it. It's below its lower Bollinger band too, you see. So the gap here, the first one at 2.52, it was taken. That's good, I'll remove the first one, but the second gap remains. Hop, bam! Okay. So XRP, well, as long as it doesn't recover its 200-day moving average at 258, it could be death. Already, it will recover this gap which can close it. And the question I ask myself is that big wicks are very often retested in finance. Not a sure thing, not mandatory all the time, but it happens often, you see. And so, what XRP will nibble, nibble, nibble like this, and retest its wick here, well, it remains possible and I'll explain why. At the XRP structure level, it exploded, remember, it's over. The lawsuit that lasted 500,000 years is over. XRP went from 50 cents to 3.50. So a nice rise, a good x 7 if you want. Well, between x 6 and x 7 and then it corrected a bit. Zigzag. Well, and there you see this candle here, it broke all the lows, especially this low which was the lowest. And so that means that XRP, structurally speaking, is telling us that after repeating all the lows, I'm going to start a new corrective wave. So this could be the beginning of a wave where you have the first wave here and the second corrective wave which will be there to then move on later. So an XRP that nibbles, nibbles, nibbles, zigzags to go back to the long re-accumulation zone and retest the wick, you shouldn't be surprised, just that, you shouldn't be surprised at this level here. Oh, but what a joke, look at this. XRP, well, it's the only one that is really full of longs, you see. So over the entire rise it made, yum yum yum yum. Lots of longs have been placed. So this increases the probabilities that XRP will do, well, I'll take another little tour to calm down, well, those who opened longs with a power of 1000 over this entire rise, and they are there. Hello, we are here, you see, you see everyone, you see Bitcoin, but to the south it's empty. Ethereum to the south is a bit empty. Solana to the south, well, it's a bit less empty. But XRP to the south, there's almost as much to the south as to the north, you see. So over the entire rise, the longs have all been placed. Here, if you go and smash everyone, it's - 55, it went back up, everyone has attached themselves, you see, so be careful, be careful when. Well, and to finish, a quick look at the stock market. So the stock market had a big candle, really not pretty on the Eurostox 500 and also on the S&P 500. We can see that a candle like this often tells us it's the start of a correction. Okay, it could be a small correction, a medium or a large one, but it's the start. The S&P 500 candle ate a month of gains, you know, from September 11th to October 11th. Thank you for coming. Okay, so when you have a candle, it's an engulfing candle, but it engulfed a month, you see, the candle is, you know in SOS Phantom, his name is Bouffou, right? The one who eats everything, that's the idea. Well, so the Nasdaq is the same, the Dow Jones is the same, the Eurostox 600 is the same, the tech sector is blown up, and Asia was closed. So they haven't purged yet. So when we see the big red candle there, I say to myself, be careful, it could be the start of a corrective wave because it's really a big candle. It could be the start of something not good. The only thing that can save and send everyone straight up is Trump saying, well, finally, it's okay, I spoke with Xi, everything is fine, I'm removing the 100% tariffs. Okay, if he gives us reassuring news, everything will go back up. If there's no news and on top of that China imposes reciprocal measures, responds with anything, boom, the descent continues. So gold, commodities. Well, well, gold is still in the green, the barrel has all crashed. This smells of recession. Everything crypto-related, well, everyone took a big hit. Coinbase took a big hit. MicroStrategy too, all the miners. Marathon, Riot, Hunt, Clean Spark. Uh, we have Galaxy Digital, Jack Dorsey's Block, Jack Dorsey's Block, everyone took a big hit yesterday. You see the American market was bought up enormously. People are afraid, they buy gold and American bonds, American 20-year bonds, they went to the bond markets and the dollar also recovered a bit because well, when you start hitting China with your dollar, well, the Chinese can also say, "Well, simple, take back your dollar a bit." And you also think the dollar risks taking a bit of a hit since Trump is alienating China, you see. Well, that's it friends for this little update. So tomorrow we will do the long-term weekly analysis which will be very interesting. Don't hesitate to come tomorrow. Tomorrow evening, we'll do another live at 9 PM. Don't hesitate to come too. So I send you kisses. Be strong. Don't hesitate to come to talk if you're not doing well. We are here for you. Big kisses and I'll see you tomorrow. Bye bye.