Transcription
Hi, this is Kri Arac with Wicked Stocks, bringing you an individual stock pick in Oracle Corporation, symbol ORCL. I recorded this video on Thursday, March 6th, 2025.
We can jump to the basic fundamentals, courtesy of Yahoo Finance. You can see market capitalization: 433 billion; average daily trading volume for the last 3 months: 11 million a day.
Uh, and let's jump to the charts. This is a weekly bar chart; same bar chart throughout. I'm going to open it up just a little bit to show you a very well-defined, uh, this is roughly a 2-year channel bottom, close to it; in fact, depends on where you determine its point of origin. I could go back to October of '22, that low, but that high, the first high on the rising trend line is, um, you know, like June/July of '23. So there you have it, 18 months anyway. 151.080506 [Music]. So on, as we move through time, it is a base of support from which we can rally to channel resistance. Over the next, you know, the timing of this could be 2 to 3 months; there's precedent for that. Or it could be into later year; there's also precedence for that. Uh, but you're bottom picking 151.08, the low 150s, and anticipating a possible upward rotation by the end of the year or sooner to 209.74 channel resistance.
Now, that is kind of the big picture; that is the extreme. What I think is more realistic is from 151.08 returning to that high area in the upper 190s. 198.30 was the December 24th high; that's an all-time high. And I think from 151.08 we can round up to 198.30 over the next 2 to 3 months or so. I think is, uh, realistic. Um, in terms of providing a buy signal on strength at this time, um, you know, we looked at this very closely, and there was a case to be made all the way up. So really, when we see that, we just stick to kind of the big picture. Um, you're, you're bottom picking 151.08, and if you're to buy it on strength, we kind of leave it to you, uh, because there's just so many points, you know, every five or 10 points to the upside, uh, we can find a realistic area; different channel structures, descending trend lines, etc., etc., etc. So buying 151.08 and holding out for 198.30 is the play. That is a, um, a better than a 30, 20% return. Um, and so there you have it. We're always looking for 20% returns on the stock picks we present to you. Longer term, as I said initially, the 209.74 channel top should be considered attainable, uh, in, um, you know, once again, I can look at this chart and see that there's precedence that it could take the better part of a year, and there's precedence more recently where it took all of about three or four months. So, um, the timing of that is impossible, obviously.
If we were to close above the 198.30 December high, we're just weeks away from reaching 209.74, where we could top out on a quarterly basis, possibly in the later year. We could trade inside the 151.08 to 209.74 channel structure through the rest of the year. Now, because this is a longer-term line study, if we were to close below 151.08, I do think you need to add the 1% violation threshold to that. This week it's at 149.57. So if we close 149.57 or lower, uh, we enter a sell signal. So if you're bottom picking the low 150s, great; that is the thing to do. But if we close at 149.57 or lower, you really, I think, want to bail on that long position; take your losses early because I do see then, over the following, depending on the volatility, that could be a 3- to 5-week move; it could also take 2 months or so. But 127.54, that high area from June of '23 would be expected, and that is also roughly, um, is it a 20% down move? No, it's less than that; it's probably more like a 15% or so, but that would be the objective, and I could see this market bottoming out there, uh, at least initially, uh, you know, but the bottom line with respect to Oracle is if we close at 149.57 or lower, in other words, 1% below that 151.08 channel bottom, I have no interest in bottom picking Oracle for some time to come. In fact, you could play the short side, I think aggressively, anticipating the upper 120s quickly and possibly even lower as we continue into later year. Uh, but I just don't want to present it on the sell side; this is really a buy-side recommendation at 151.08. All right, I think that pretty much covers it. I'm going to leave it at that for this particular Wicked Stocks video analysis on Oracle Corporation. You have a great day.