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"America Is Collapsing Like Rome" - Ray Dalio's Warning On Money, Chaos, WW3 & 2025 Recession

Tom Bilyeu1:55:03

Transcription

them in a high-pressure situation, they can still think clearly and make strategic decisions.

So, meditation helps in that way. It allows you to step back from the emotional turmoil and see the bigger picture.

Additionally, having a framework for decision-making can help. If you have a set of principles or guidelines that you follow, it can provide clarity in chaotic situations.

For example, if you know your goal is to maintain stability and prosperity, you can evaluate your options based on how well they align with that goal.

This approach can help you detach from the emotional aspects of a situation and focus on what is most important.

Ultimately, it's about cultivating a mindset that prioritizes rational thinking over emotional reactions.

This can be challenging, especially in a highly charged political environment, but it's essential for making sound decisions.

By practicing mindfulness and establishing clear principles, individuals can navigate complex situations more effectively.

In summary, the combination of meditation, a clear framework, and a focus on rational decision-making can help people manage their emotions and respond to reality more effectively.

This is crucial, especially as we face significant challenges in our society today.

The ability to remain calm and think critically will be vital in addressing the issues at hand.

As we move forward, it's important to remember that while the cycles of history may repeat, our responses can be different if we choose to approach them with clarity and purpose.

By doing so, we can work towards a more stable and prosperous future.

A chessboard in front of them, they look at the board and they don't have to analyze each individual piece. They know that pattern on the board very well. They know where they are in the game, and so that's a chunk of information.

It feels like a very similar approach to the way that you're looking at financial markets, global movements, the big cycle. In that, oh, I can drop you into a scenario, you'd look at a few key pieces of information, and you'd know where we are in the cycle.

So, I mean, starting with the three forces that we talked about at the very beginning, hey, tell me where those three forces are. You expanded it to five, but tell me where we are with those five forces. That's the chunk on the chessboard that I need. Boom! Now I know how to take that next move.

What I want to try to give to people, okay, that's why I have the animated video on YouTube, that's why I have the book. Because it's like watching the same movie happen over and over again. You can see it and you understand the cause-and-effect relations.

So you can understand, so when you ask questions like, um, you know, how do you get better? And then we go dealt with the mechanics of that, like, okay, how do you get to be financially better off? And how do you be good with each other and not be threatened?

I mean, it's just, if you look at it that way and you understand the mechanics, it is what it is. That's how reality works. And then how do you deal with it? Makes a lot of sense.

Okay, so in terms of chunking, in terms of understanding where we are in the cycle, um, one thing that I'm thinking a lot about is, as we go into the 2024 election, um, I've heard credible people say that they think China is going to make a move on Taiwan in the sort of chaos of the division that we have here in the current global superpower.

Do you see that as a logical move on the chessboard for China? Is that something that seems plausible to you?

Um, I have very good contact, um, so I have close contacts on both sides. And, um, and so I'm just wanting to say it rather than just throwing out an opinion. My opinion is that, um, there's a political situation in the United States that it's really the issue of how much the United States pushes the issue in Taiwan that makes it risky.

Because, um, there's a move for, uh, let's say Hawks or, um, some, uh, to, um, defend, uh, Taiwan. Or so let me just give you the facts. If there is a, I'm going to give you a little history, okay?

Please. Um, Taiwan was part of China. Um, and around 1840, foreign powers came into China and they wanted to trade and do things with China, and China didn't want to do that.

And so around that time, they had the Opium Wars. You may have heard that in history, in which, um, the Chinese at the time said, I don't want to trade. You don't have anything that I want.

And, um, then they brought in opium that the Chinese wanted so that they would have this trade and whatever. And then militarily, one and took over large parts of China and took control of that.

And in 1895, um, it was many foreign powers, and in 1895, Japan takes, uh, Taiwan. Um, okay, fast forward, um, you go into World War II, and after World War II, the winners of the war get to divide up the world and said who gets what.

And Taiwan was given back to China. That's 1945. Then they have a civil war. Um, oh, as usual, the left and the right, they fight each other, and so the capitalists get kicked out by the Communists, and they go to Taiwan and they control Taiwan.

Okay, so everybody agrees, um, that China is part of Taiwan is part of China, but they argue who controls China. The ones in Taiwan say, oh, we control China, and the ones in Beijing say we control China.

But everybody agrees with that 50 years ago. So it's a big issue in their mind because it's part of China, and it's been told to them that it's part of China. Taiwan's part of China.

But the capitalists, uh, which is called the Guam and Dunk, they are living in Taiwan, and they're not controlling it. So Henry Kissinger, um, first makes the, um, gets together, goes to China and deals with reunification, and then Nixon follows.

And, um, and there's this argument, and they reiterate that, um, Taiwan is part of China. Everybody agrees on that and that there should be peaceful unification of China, and that goes on 50 years now and brings it up to where we are today.

Okay, uh, so a red line for China is if the United States, um, or Taiwan says Taiwan should be an independent country, that would produce a war, and everybody knows that. All those in government would know that would produce a war.

Um, this is a big thing for them. You know, in other words, they call that period of time a hundred years of humiliation. It was taken, its promise back, and whatever. It's in their mind an indisputable reality.

Um, now we're in a situation in which, um, the United States, and particularly, um, some congressmen who are more hawkish, um, say, uh, what good chance they will say, uh, we will militarily defend Taiwan and then go on and sell them more, um, military equipment.

Um, so it's very, very close to saying I will, [Music] um, it's a separate state. So we're very, very close to that particular issue.

So what will come? Um, I don't believe China is going to initiate a move to take control of Taiwan, um, unless the United States crosses that line, pushes that line.

Now, the way that it is understood, and just by different parties, um, is it's understood by the Chinese to be the way I describe it. Look, it's been promised, it's here, you know? I mean, don't, no, that's an uncompromisable thing.

And Americans, um, I think think about, um, this, um, communist dictatorial bully that is trying to take a free country, a free people, and, um, in a, you know, um, aggressive way take over them, and that we need to defend liberty and protect them from that.

Okay, um, I just want to emphasize, um, it's more complicated than the way that I said. And also, it's like, um, from the Chinese point of view, it's part of the American containment strategy, which means, you know, China has grown, and it's become a higher percentage of the world economy and so on, and it's expanding.

And it's like Taiwan is the lid on this boiling pot. So that's my best description of what the situation is.

So I wouldn't expect, I would say, um, if you want to know what really happens, uh, watch it the way I describe it. In other words, is it unprovoked or is it provoked in the way I just described it?

Now again, I'm a very realistic person. I'm not an ideological person. I'm not trying to, okay, I'm just like, how does the, how does reality work and what's the move and what's the next move?

And I'm just trying to describe that reality. I'm not taking a side, and it's just like two sides in a chessboard, and I'm just looking down at the chessboard.

Right, what are the things that you think people need to understand about the world to navigate it well?

And I'm asking this now at this moment because hearing even how you answer the question of China, if I had to guess what you're gonna say to my question, uh, I would say it would be people need to understand human nature.

People need to understand, um, finance. People need to understand, I think you're making it too complicated.

Oh, give it to me. Um, I think people need to understand, um, the basics, the fundamentals, and the story that repeats over and over for, and why it occurs.

History. Oh, okay, yeah. And understanding the cause-and-effect relationships in it, right?

Nobody, you can't expect somebody to understand all the things in finance, and you don't need to. You don't have to understand all the things in human nature and psychology. You don't need to.

Okay, it just comes down to kind of pretty much simple basic stuff that repeats in a cycle for certain reasons. That's why I try to make it in these simple entertaining videos.

Right, I put three videos together: um, how the economic machine works in 30 minutes, principles for success in 30 minutes, and the changing world order in 40 minutes.

And these are just basics. If you understand that, like, you know what makes a healthy society, you know, we boiled it down. You don't need to know a lot of complexity in order to understand, you know, like how do you raise your kids?

Do you hurt more than you spend? You know, it all kind of comes down to those kinds of basics. And so you need to understand those.

I think we'll link to those three videos in the show notes, but where can people follow along with you and what you're doing?

Um, I'm on LinkedIn, but I also, uh, post on all the major, and sometimes if it's more in-depth, it's on LinkedIn.

Uh, guys, if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace.

If you want to learn about why saving your money is the surest way to lose buying power, then make sure you check out this interview with Robert Breedlove.

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