Transcription
Hello, I hope you are doing well. Today is Tuesday, October 26, 2025, it is 6:30 AM, and it has become a little habit. I do a market review on Tuesdays. Why? Because well, we already let Monday pass, which is often a bit of a warm-up day, shall we say. And then, above all, it allows you to observe the closes a bit, especially the weekly closes. And to take stock, it's true that weekly closes are often a good indicator.
So, before starting, and for once, I will give a brief update on our algorithmic strategies because what has just happened is extremely interesting. It's true that now, particularly with the SPT algorithms, we are starting to have quite a bit of data that is no longer backtested but is real replication data on the alpha bot and on the replicators. We have approximately, we have over 1000 iterations to our credit. So, with 1000 iterations, obviously, we can do statistics, and these statistics have allowed us to undertake, I don't know if it's the 3rd or 4th, it doesn't matter, an optimization phase which allowed us to identify, on the one hand, the most profitable phases and times, but also, and especially, the phases and times that generate the most drawdown. This latest optimization phase allowed us to filter these moments so as to try to extract the, how to say it, the essence of this algorithm.
Is it by chance, coincidence, or the result of this optimization? It's true that the last two weeks, particularly on SPT, have been exceptional, especially two weeks ago because we broke our records. We achieved more than three times the previous record. That is to say, the algorithm achieved 30R in one week, and last week, we had a week that was also incredible, which is among the best weeks. That is to say, we achieved almost 8R in profit. That's one thing. This optimization has also allowed us to limit the slippage effects that we can observe, which sometimes cause large discrepancies between the results of the alpha bot and their own results. This is a gap that is tending to decrease, or even for some to disappear, or even for some to be to their advantage, and above all, the data we have collected has allowed us to model a coefficient that will allow us to adapt the sizing to these liquidity or illiquidity windows, in fact, on certain assets.
And so, I renew here the recommendations that we have made and have been making for a long time. It is important, first of all, to replicate all the SPT pairs. There are nine in total. And I would rather recommend, if your capital allows, to replicate all these pairs rather than replicating the baskets. Because if you replicate the baskets, your performance will be automatically divided by two, because with baskets, you have to involve several assets, and therefore, one R on the baskets is equivalent to 0.5R. That's already one thing. Then, if you want to replicate the baskets, you also need to replicate SPT BTC, which is not part of them. So, that's one thing. All of this is extremely encouraging.
Now, there is still a small point that bothers us a lot, which is the result of what happened on October 10th, where, as you know, there was a major liquidity event, there were many liquidations, there were certain assets, certain altcoins in particular, that dropped by -80% to -90%, and some even touched zero, if I'm not mistaken. And all of this, obviously, caused damage because it affected, it liquidated a record number of traders. That's one thing. But also, and this is very important, you need to understand how an algorithm works. In fact, an algorithm is not a magic ball that will predict the future; it's a magic ball that will look at the past and draw conclusions from it based on certain models that it has been taught to perform. And most of the time, it's based on periods. That is to say, the algorithm will look at the past and will make certain decisions based on that past. It's certain that if, in the periods that the algorithm looks at, there is an event where the market has sometimes dropped by -80%, then it will disrupt quite a few things. And that's what's happening to us. And so, as long as October 10th is part of the reference period for these algorithms, it will require special attention.
So, just as an example, a really important point is that we have protection orders on the iterations that are launched, and for now, this October 10th day is bothering us because it's disrupting the protection algorithm a bit. So, what does that mean? It means that we have to switch to manual monitoring because there are some significant points of intention, and it will also generate errors, particularly sizing errors. We need to correct this as quickly as possible, obviously.
Second thing, and this is what we are observing not only with this algorithm, I have other algorithms running on other servers as well, and it is also generating errors on TradingView. And this is a bit more annoying, meaning that some alerts show behaviors that are quite strange, and this has been clearly the case since October 10th. So, well, we are observing all of this. For now, we are here. It requires active monitoring, which means that obviously we are less available for other activities, particularly for animating the VIP lounges. But well, our priority right now is capital protection. So, we are monitoring all of this very closely. There will come a time, anyway, when the reference periods of our algorithms will mean that October 10th will no longer be included in the calculations.
In the meantime, in any case, we remain very attentive and very cautious. In parallel, and this is quite important information, we are going to, anyway, we have planned to rework these SPT algorithms, but we will talk about that later. It will not have any consequences for those who are already replicating them. There are other algorithms that are under development. Some are in more or less advanced testing phases. So, this means that within a few weeks, perhaps a few months, we will certainly have announcements of new products to make, new algorithms. But for now, it's still premature, and the backtests are very good. But now, for some, we are in blank testing phases or real fund testing to see how this algorithm behaves. So, I will give you information about all of this in due course. In any case, what is happening is extremely encouraging. You see that at the beginning of Q4, that is to say the last quarter, we did better than Q2 and Q3 combined, which is quite incredible.
So, I insist and I repeat, I strongly advise you against doing your own thing by looking at the results and saying, for example, "Ah, well, BCA at Rune, they are getting good results. I will only replicate those." Because this week they are doing well, but the week before or the one before that, they might have been in drawdown. What makes this algorithm strong is diversification, and this diversification has been studied so that these nine pairs are necessary. So, that's really important. So, it's either these 9 pairs, or the four baskets plus Bitcoin, but in that case, you will have a less significant R.
The second recommendation, which is really important, is to absolutely never exceed 1% per R. When you indicate the risk, never exceed 1%. We sometimes receive messages from people complaining about not having the same results as those we announce. And when we look into the details, we realize that they are not following all or part of the recommendations we give them. So, it is really important to follow these recommendations closely.
Okay, big parenthesis closed. Let's take a look at the markets now and what has happened, starting, of course, with the dollar. It's quite symptomatic of what is happening, especially since the beginning of the week, but also in the preceding weeks. What you can see is that we are still in a candle range. You see that the price has been compressed within this candle for 3 weeks, and in this case, the candle of October 6th. That is to say, we are insisting, we can clearly see it on the dollar, a month of consolidation, but not only consolidation, but also, we see it clearly here, it's very clear, a month of compression. You're starting to get the hang of it, I imagine. You know what a compression predicts. A compression predicts a violent movement in either direction. On both sides, we have zones of interest that are accumulating above this trendline and below it. Generally, the market takes care of both, and we see that this compression started to form following the work of this daily imbalance here in this zone between 99.50 and 98.98 or 99. That's where we are. This is something we also find in the futures market. And so, currently, we really have no choice but to wait for the resolution of this compression dynamic. For now, we see two opposing forces. Here, we have a bearish FVG on the daily chart, on which the market has failed. It then worked on a bullish daily FVG and breaker, on which the dollar has also failed. And it is following the contact of these two opposing forces that it entered into a compression phase. So, obviously, at some point, it will not remain indefinitely in this zone; it will make a decision. So, it's not very comfortable. That's one thing. The second thing is that this will translate into a particular dynamic on quite a few risk assets.
So, I was talking about the work of October 10th that we had on the markets, which was an episode of record liquidation in terms of both traders and volume. But in fact, this kind of event has a double life. That is to say, let's go to Bitcoin. So, here is October 10th, we see it here, which was, despite everything, quite contained on Bitcoin, which was still an 8% drop. But in fact, and I challenge you to show me otherwise, such a large and nervous influx always ends, as we see here, with a consolidation movement. And it's always in this order: accumulation, expansion, accumulation, with, of course, these famous manipulation phases that Larry Williams talks about, among others.
Now, let's look at the Nasdaq, which tells a completely different story. That's what's quite interesting. So, here is October 10th, we see it here. What did the market do afterwards, after this phase? It entered into consolidation. And then, since Wednesday, Wednesday afternoon, we can even say since Thursday, this is what it has achieved. It has gained 4% between Thursday and yesterday. And yesterday alone, it gained almost 1.8%, starting the week with a huge New Week Opening Gap. It's not the biggest, there have been others. So, in terms of points of interest, this constitutes a magnet for the price. But well, you still have to be very careful, because if I switch to daily, look, we have others. We have one here, for example, that has still not been retested, and this one dates back to May. We have another one that has still not been filled, and it dates back to April. So, these are what are called breakaway gaps. And you see that they constitute places where the price could come to rest at one time or another. But already, we are quite far away, but you still have to be careful. And here, I refer you to a video I made a few weeks or months ago called "The Trap of Points of Interest." A point of interest is a confluence element, but it cannot constitute a model on its own. And many people get caught by this kind of dynamic. In this case, we see it clearly here, and it's true that for now, it remains in a proximity that can make us think that it could be visited. We have one here. We also have a volume imbalance a bit lower, which is in the zone of 25250. But for now, the only thing we can observe here is the momentum on the Nasdaq, which is just incredible, in fact. You see that following this V-bottom that we had, look at what the market... and here we are in a register that is almost like a climax.
So, earlier, I was talking about two opposing forces, particularly in the dollar's dynamic. Here, we also have two that will be a bit psychological: the fact of saying, "Well, anyway, the trend is my friend," and the trend, we see it clearly, it's strongly bullish. And the second is to say, the market is clearly overheating, and it's leaving inefficiencies behind that will be retested at some point. So, here, I really want to say that there is a hierarchy in these forces, and it's first the trend, and then the points of interest. Especially since we are currently in a price discovery zone on the Nasdaq, on the S&P 500, and on the Dow Jones. The recommendations from I City are clear: when you are in a price discovery zone, the bias is generally bullish.
I still have in mind, even if it's not a crystal ball, but it's an indicator that I think is important, the M2 money supply print, which clearly shows that, applying a 90-day offset, we have a market compression towards November until early December, and then a new expansion which, a priori, would take us until the end of January, before moving towards consolidation. It's not a crystal ball in the sense that I've indicated the dates here, but you can't time the market like that. But you can still have an estimate, if you look at how it has behaved in the past, a fairly accurate estimate of the trends the market might engage in over the next three months. So, this is something I keep in the back of my mind and consult from time to time to see where we stand. And it helps me establish my bias.
So, to return to crypto, and particularly to Bitcoin, I will not repeat what my colleagues have said in their respective videos, whether it's Au Pzi or Au Tonton. So, I won't go back over that. In any case, I will try not to take the same analytical prisms, but we clearly see this consolidation movement post-October 10th, and here we see that the market is simply digesting what happened on that famous Friday, October 10th. That Bitcoin is preparing to retest a weekly opening gap, in this case, the one from October 26th, which is Sunday evening. It leaves behind relative equal highs here between this previous high and this previous daily high, and here we clearly find this zone of uncertainty that we identified on the dollar, here in 4-hour. So, same sentiment as for the dollar here on Bitcoin, it really gives the impression that we are preparing for a movement that could also be violent. But I think Bitcoin needs to digest all of this movement. So, my current bias, and I don't know how long it will last, is that we will certainly, probably, witness a consolidation here in this zone. And we see it clearly here in the value. We see that in this consolidation zone, the POC is a bit higher, it's around $1200, but here we have a succession of troughs in the value that will require a retest. This means that we need to be very cautious, in my opinion, because moments like these of market consolidation can be very detrimental to portfolios because we identify models that most of the time work very well, but from the moment the market enters a consolidation phase, it performs what is called a "shake and destroy" phase. That is to say, it will essentially focus on internal liquidity but not too much on external liquidity. So, a priori, when we launch a model, we will rather have external liquidity in mind, and we see that for now, external liquidity is far away. We have the peak on one side, and on the other side, we have the low of this wick from this dynamic that followed October 10th, so around $103,000. So, my gut feeling tells me that we will probably remain in this kind of dynamic until the end of the month. The end of the month is soon, there are still two days left. I am very curious to see what the market has in store for us for November.
I won't dwell too much on the altcoins, which are a reflection of what's happening on Bitcoin. We see that we are also in a candle range. For example, on Ethereum, you see, we have this weekly candle here. And everything that has happened for the past 3 weeks is compressed within this weekly candle, the one from October 6th. The same for XRP. Look at the damage that October 10th could have caused. The same for AVAX, the same for LINK, the same for AV. Here is the weekly candle. So, it's a bit like a big meal; we need to give the market time to digest all of this, even if it means taking a little nap. At some point, obviously, it will make a decision. Yes, look at Solana, for example, it's enormous. To a lesser extent, we see that the more liquid an asset is, the less it was affected by this day. But still, we see, for example, that TRX is among those that came out of it best, but we clearly see Dodge, etc., etc. I won't go through all of them.
Now, this liquidity event being the most violent and significant we have ever seen, the question will be whether, for those who had pending orders in this zone and which were obviously triggered, whether, just like the Covid crash, it will constitute an entry point, a bottom on which the market will come to rest to engage in a bullish trend? And I think we will know that very soon.
A small point of concern as well, and then I'll stop there, is this significant divergence between the dynamic we can observe on Bitcoin and that on the Nasdaq. There are small phenomena that the market has accustomed us to, particularly the one of amplifying for Bitcoin a drop observed on the Nasdaq. And here, with what we are observing, this bearish divergence on Bitcoin, what will happen if the Nasdaq corrects with what we are currently observing here? So, on Bitcoin, on the one hand, when we know that what happens on Bitcoin is amplified on Ethereum and on altcoins, what would happen if we witnessed a significant correction on the Nasdaq, the main US indices? Knowing that we clearly see that we are in a period of overheating on these indices. So, that's really a question mark, a big question mark that I'm raising and that really calls for great caution.
Caution doesn't necessarily mean not engaging, but it means obviously having an ultra-defensive risk management strategy, especially if you are doing intraday trading on cryptos, for example, and you are using leverage. Please, don't play around by opening positions without protecting yourself, without setting stop losses, because that could really be devastating for your portfolio.
Okay, I'll stop there for today. I will probably make another video during the week to look at other assets that we haven't looked at today, particularly gold and the euro. But it seemed really important to me to spend a bit more time on the points I've developed today. As always, take care of yourselves. If you haven't already, come and join us in the VIP lounge. You have all the links in the description. You also have my private Telegram channel, which is a community of traders on which I share quite a few opportunities, particularly bot adjustments. And if you haven't already, obviously, I invite you to subscribe to my channel and to leave a comment under this video. First, simply if you have any questions or remarks for me, and then obviously it flatters the algorithms and helps the development of this channel.
Alright, have a good day.