Transcription
Week nine running back rankings. Hayden, just looking at your list, this is absolutely loaded at the top. I mean, every single top guy either has tremendous production this year or an awesome matchup this week. I can't wait to talk about him. And even it goes almost nine or 10 deep this week. So, let's kick things off with your top rank runner. No surprise that is Jonathan Taylor at the number one spot at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hayden, if you go back to week 16 of last season through week eight of this season, JT has scored as the overall running back one or running back two in six of 11 weeks, which is >> insane.
Yeah, totally insane. It's just him and Christian McCaffrey right now. It just depending on the matchup and for the most part, I'm just going to continue to stick with John Taylor. Uh going back to your intro though, did want to mention this week there are 16 teams projected for over 24 points. We do not see that very often. So, I'm expecting a lot of big scores from the running backs and there's kind of a halves and have nots and some of the teams projected for uh like under 20 points or in committee backfield. So, don't be surprised like there's a huge difference in in projections for the guys we're going to talk about like the top 15 uh versus like once we get to RB 28 gets pretty ugly.
>> Let's talk about Christian McCaffrey then as your running back too. He's coming off arguably his worst week of the season. This is at the New York Giants. I mean, actually, last week was the first time all season he scored outside of the top nine running backs and half APR scoring all season long.
>> Yeah, just a much different matchup. So, you had the Texans last week and now the Giants this week. Giants are dead last and rushing EPA allowed. Dexter Lawrence has not been the same player playing through an injury right now. And for those reasons, the 49ers are back to a 25 and a half team total. It was a predictable dud last week uh for everybody included. Um, and even with that, he's still the RB2 and RB1 usage this month. So, he just sticks out on the sore th uh thumb on every single uh chart that I make. It's him and Jonathan Taylor. And there's like no reason to get cute.
>> Yeah. Giants allowing league high 6.1 yards per carry. Uh, that's not good.
>> That includes two yards before contact, which is 31st in the league, and a league high 4.13 yards after contact per rush. It's like the pass rush is a lot of fun, but despite all of those investments, plus Dexter Lawrence, the name, uh it's just been so miserable this season.
>> It really has. The bad linebacker play. And then also for the 49ers, I'm expecting Brock Perie to play, but not the additional wide receiver. So, it's kind of one of those things where you get the better quarterback now, but you don't have the target competition to kind of compete with it.
>> Derrick Henry is your running back three. This is at the Miami Dolphins. He's running back five in consensus ring, so you're slightly ahead. I do want to note those when you know we are talking about these names at the top. Uh we know Miami has allowed opponents to score on over 50% of their drives this season.
>> I'm expecting that to continue. Lamar Jackson should be ready to go on Thursday night football. Ronnie Stanley was at least limited in practice. That's their big left tackle. So that I'm expecting him to to gut through it as well. Miami held the Falcons down last week, but for the rest of the season has just been completely annihilated. Um so I'm leaning into the bigger sample here. And if you're looking at the uh prediction markets, if you will, the Ravens are first in projected points all the way up at 29. When the Ravens score 29 points, Derrick Henry is very live for multiple touchdowns. So, taking the first uh what, seven, eight weeks of the season, throwing them completely out the window. And I'm treating this a lot more like last year when he was the RB3 overall.
>> It's interesting when Baltimore, this is from Richie Bar, has been ahead on the scoreboard. Derrick Henry has played just 56% of the snaps compared to 48% when trailing. I'd have expected that number to be lower when trailing even than that 48%. And then higher than that 56% number this season, too.
>> Yeah, I think there's probably a difference between trailing or like winning by a couple points versus, you know, in a spot like this where they could be winning by 14 points where he's like literally not coming off the field.
>> This Dolphins run defense did a great job last week against Bejian Robinson. Uh, I would just warn to buying into that, you know,
>> stuffing Charlie Werner and Cal Pitts at the point of attack is much different than stuffing Patrick Ricard and Charlie Kolar at the point of attack. And also an immobile Kirk Cousins versus what Lamar Jackson can do and just draw attention in the back field, too.
>> Yep. Josh Jacobs is your running back four. This is at home, the first on this list against the Carolina Panthers. You're a few spots again ahead of consensus. He's running back seven in those con ranks.
>> Well, in the last 365 days, he's the RB5. This month, he's the RB4. I'm always aligned with with those two numbers. And the Packers are tied with the Ravens for the most points on the week up at 29. So, they're hosting the Panthers. They're 13-point favorites. When the Packers score 29 points when they're winning by two touchdowns, Josh Jacobs is usually in the end zone once, twice, or three times. And on top of that, different styled runner, but James Cook had 216 rushing yards. A lot of those were like kind of right up the gut, you know, and there was just no linebackers uh to to stop him. So, the offensive line for the Packers is mostly healthy now. That was not the case a while ago. So, I can see this being a big Josh Jacobs week. The only thing that's in the back of my mind is he's playing through something right now, but he's playing through it and he's still productive. So,
>> yeah, I mean, whenever the team is projected to score 29 points, you can kind of lock and load a touchdown in Josh Jacobs back pocket. That doesn't necessarily mean, you know, he'll reach 100 yards, which he usually could in this game, but uh a touchdown or two is entirely entirely possible here. One thing for the Packers just moving forward, they are kind of the kings of slow starts right now. Like they were even losing to the Steelers at halftime. They've been losing in other games. They've won out like the Arizona Cardinals, I believe it was. Uh if we ever, and who knows if we will, if we ever get the Packers playing, you know, positive offense for all four quarters, then uh they are easily one of the best teams in the NFL.
>> Javvante Williams is running back five. This is against the Arizona Cardinals. Again, running back nine in consensus rankings. So, you are a few spots ahead. And by the way, Javvante Williams is averaging the third most snaps per game at the running back spot. Only only behind Christian McAffrey and Jonathan Taylor this season.
>> Yeah. just doesn't come off the field. Jaden Blue is his backup right now and they just don't trust the rookie and he had kind of had a weird off seasonason and beginning of the season as well. So
>> fumbled last week.
>> Yeah. So it's just going to be Javvante Williams repeatedly. I posted this on Twitter just that chart of expected touchdowns from the teams and it goes the Colts have expected to score the most touchdowns with their running backs and the Lions predictably, the 49ers predictably and then the Cowboys are fourth and I was just like man I'm a total idiot for not being all on top of Javvante Williams. The team is just way too good. So, uh, CMC, Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor have faced the Cardinals. All three of those elite RB1 scored at least 18.3 half PPR points in those matchups. Uh, this month he's the RB3 in usage. You said he's RB3 in snaps played. So, this is a good bounceback spot at home against the Cardinals versus being in Denver. Thinking back, and you might have done this, but where do you think Javvante Williams finished in underdog drafts at the end of uh draft season, I should say,
>> RB33 or something like that?
>> RB 42.
>> Oh my god. I mean, just like total idiot behavior by me for not being all on that.
>> Well, I mean, when it's our running back 42, it's it's everyone. It's idiot. I know it's everybody,
>> but we know that the Cowboys were most likely going to be good.
>> Yeah.
>> Well, the other part of this, and I'm I'm trying to buy myself some time because look, Rico Data is a solid runner, and we talked about this when they didn't resign him and they brought in Javvante Williams like basically on one of the first days of free agency that we would have just brought, you know, Rico D back, which, you know, maybe he would have been close to, if not as productive as Javante Williams. Yeah. Is doing the season. and we were on Rico last year in this backfield and he finishes the running back 26. So yeah, basically in our math, our fantasy football math, we should have just said,
>> okay, instead of running back 42 here for Javvante Williams, we should have at least even if we gave him a bit of a discount for in our brains being maybe a lesser runner than Rico Down at the time, running back 30, running back 32 ranking versus a running back 42 overall ADP when draft ended.
>> Yeah. Yeah. And I think the Cowboys offense is just going to get better because they have George Pickkins instead of the other receivers
>> and the offense was better on top of that.
>> Yes.
>> Yeah. And then you add a first round guard to the equation. Your left tackle is in his second season. Um and then we loved the Cardinals ground game and the run game coordinator come came from Arizona. So like
>> right
>> it was just a miss by by everybody but including us. We we should have known. Again, I think it is useful to go through that formula because history repeats itself and that is going to happen for us in the future with XYZ team. And so now we can always cite this one in the future.
Next is Jir Gibbs as running back six. This is against the Minnesota Vikings. If this was 2024, uh we would be somewhat nervous of a rushing matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. This year, not so much. I mean, their run defense success rate is 28th. 28th. And we just saw Kenny Gainwell and Kamani Vidal dominate this Russian defense.
>> Yep. And nothing's really changed and the Lions should be fresh off the buy. I think they're starting to go a little bit more towards Gibbs than Montgomery uh versus at least last year. And I like that you said this year because technically in 2025, it was week 18. Jir Gibbs plays uh played these Vikings. He had um let's see what the numbers are. 139 yards and three touchdowns on the ground and then had another 31 receiving yards with another receiving touchdown through the air. Now, Montgomery wasn't active for that one, but we've seen the explosiveness and just a complete dominance from the Detroit Lions in that one. Um, they've also allowed four different running backs to reach 99 plus rushing yards in this one, including, like you said, Kamani Vidol just this last game, too. So, uh, it should be a really nice game for for Jir Gibbs.
>> He is averaging 18.6 six touches per game. And that's in comparison to Dave Montgomery's 12.7 touches per game.
Devon Han is your running back seven. This is against the Baltimore Ravens. Uh Reeves pointed this out. He has 13 receiving touchdowns over the last 36 games. Uh and he's going to need that this week as we talked about the spread on Thursday Night Football. And on top of that, the Ravens are 24th in receiving points allowed to running backs this season.
Yeah, they have at least allowed 38 receiving yards per game to running backs. So, that's a kind of one way that you could think about moving the ball with Devon Chan. Last week, it was a season high and usage. Um, the Ravens on the season have not been very good against the ground. Uh, but I also think they're much healthier now. So, like you get linebackers back, you get all your corners back, you get Kyle Vanoi back, and all those pieces were missing at various points. So, it's not a clean matchup for Devon Ain, but at the same time, who else are you going to scheme up the ball to? You're going to get Wadd's touches, you're going to get Devon his touches, and then you'll see anybody else? Not really. It's like, so he's projected for 99 and a half total yards in the under pickup lobby. And I don't see any reason to not go away from him.
Let's close out the top eight with James Cook, who after two down weeks and then the by-week showed everyone that to me he's still a top 12 asset rest of season in fantasy football. However, he gets the Kansas City Chiefs here. But while on paper that looks like a tough matchup, Vegas Sports Bucks, heck, prediction markets are expecting a ton of points in this one with the total at 52 and a half and the Bills at home even despite being underdogs. 25 team total here.
>> Yeah, I think it's a totally fine spot. The Chiefs are pretty good against fantasy running backs, but at the same time, they're also controlling games where that shouldn't be the case here. It's supposed to be a close one, high scoring. Um, the last 365 days, James Cook is the RB6, so he's just a certified model breaker. I'm totally pricing that in here. Pick him lobby wise, he's at 94 and a half total yards. Like all these guys we've talked about are in the 90s or 100. I think that Christian McAffrey is like at 122 and a half total yards in the picking lobby. That's pretty wild. But, uh, these are your clear RB ones. And we got a couple more, uh, down down the stretch here. But these guys have been doing it for way too long to not consider like total studs.
Okay, I can already see the comments in the future. We get through the top eight and someone or multiple or dozens of people are asking, "Where's Bejon? Where's Bejan?" Well,
>> here's Bejian Robinson as your running back nine at the New England Patriots. He's running back three in consensus rankings this week. Why are you so much lower on him than consensus right now?
>> Well, if you look at the entire season, uh the top two guys are by themselves and then everybody else we've talked about are all bunched together, including Bejon. Uh that was because last week was was so bad. And this week is just another really tough spot for Bejon. The Falcons, their team total is under 20 this week, which is a lot lower than everybody else that we've talked about. and it's one of the toughest rushing matchups on top of that. So, the Patriots have been fourth best against fantasy running backs. They're allowing 3.0 yards per carry to the position. Um, and right now it's either Kurt Cousins, which didn't look right, or it's Michael Pennix playing through an injury, which I don't like. And I thought the offensive line has looked a little bit worse. You mentioned the tight ends have looked a little bit worse recently, too. So, Bejian Robinson could obviously have a humongous game. He's still a total stud RB1, but objectively his team's projected to score a touchdown less than everybody else that we've talked about pretty much uh on this list. And he's got the most difficult matchup straight up, too. So, you can kind of nitpick all these guys. Um, but they're projected for only 19 and three/4ers points.
Patriots have not allowed more than 49 rushing yards to a single running back this season so far. And they faced a number of good ones.
>> Yeah,
>> they are 26th in receiving points to running backs. And that might be the pathway that it is to attack Bejian Robinson. Obviously, Hayden is not, we are not suggesting you set Bejan Robinson this week. You know, it's just in comparison, if you play, you know, battle royale or some type of DFS out there, um, then he just is prioritizing the other guys. But the Patriots run defense has just been spectacular this year. You know, uh, we'll see if that continues. You would even maybe argue that if the Atlanta Falcons even reach the point total that you mentioned, uh, then that is going through Bejan Robinson to around 20 point projected total.
>> Uh, but we'll see. I mean, again, this has been a studly, studly migra first season run defense unit for the Patriots.
Kamani Vidal is your running back 10. He is one of those running backs on a team with a much much higher projected team total than the Atlanta Falcons. They're at 26 points and it's arguably the easiest matchup of the season here for the Chargers at the Tennessee Titans.
>> I don't think that Jeffrey Simmons is going to play, but we'll monitor that. That's the defensive tackle. They've just been terrible. They're second worst against the position that, like you said, the team total is really, really strong all the way up at 26 and a half. both offensive tackles played this last game and survived. So that there's a a little boost to the offensive line. Hassan Haskins has been banged up and he's just been a total afterthought uh even before his injury. And the the coaching staff just keeps hyping up Kamani Vidal. Like that's kind of like what Harbaugh's coaching staff typically does. But they said that Kamani Vidal is running like a starter in the NFL. So you know like I look back at it as a starter he's averaging 17 and a half expected half PPR points. that would make him the RB3 in usage. Um, so it's a great spot. Everything name something bad about this. Like the only thing you could possibly say is that Kamani Vidal is bad and like
>> I'm not even sure if that's even a true statement. Tennessee are allowing 5.1 yards per carry to running backs this season.
>> Uh, even like the Texans backs ran them over.
>> Uh, and then you know Joe Alt being back at left tackle just improves the whole unit like a domino effect
>> a little bit here. So yeah, I mean, come on. It all looked great and has been looking great for multiple weeks.
Kairen Williams is your running back 11. Uh, believe this team is coming off a buy and now they get the New Orleans Saints. And we can even throw in the projected team total here for the Rams because that is all the way up at nearly 29 points.
>> Yeah, third highest of the week. It's right there with the Ravens and Packers. So the only difference right now is what split are we going to get with Kairen Williams? We've seen it be for the most part kind of like 2/3 to one/3 for Blake Korn, but Blake Korn's been benched for a fumble. They're coming out of the buy. Uh I don't have a a ton of confidence exactly how the workload's going to be split. If it is that kind of 6733 split, then this is where he belongs. Team total is massive. So I think either one of these backs could have big games. Obviously, it's been a lot more Kairen Williams and Blake Corm, but um we shall see. The good news is we there's room for error here because the team total is so high.
Moving on, DeAndre Swift. Swift. I'll do it for the people. Running back 12 for you this week. This is at the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh a Bengals rushing defense that are allowing 5.3 yards per carry to running backs this season.
>> And maybe the most glaring stat of all from the worksheet. They're allowing 180 total yards per game to running backs, which is almost 20 more than the next closest team, which is Dallas at 160. man, if you're behind Dallas,
>> by the way, that's like from everyone from the New York Jets to like the Pittsburgh Steelers to Jordan Mason. So, it's not like they've run into the biggest gauntlet of the best running backs in the league,
>> right? And Trey Hendrickson had a setback with his injury just this last week. I'm expecting him to miss and that's probably their most valuable player on defense. So, yeah, it's just the easiest matchup you can possibly draw up. They have a 27 point team total at home. Uh, so the the they're expected to score a bunch. Kyle Manungai is playing a little bit more, but still mostly DeAndre Swift. Like we can be excited for Kyle Manungai, but without like having to take shots at DeAndre Swift. This month he's the RB5 on RB14 usage. Coming out of the buy, they've uh lowered their neutral pass rate a lot. They're a lot more balanced on offense. They're kind of hitting their stride with just everyone being a little bit more bought in. The offensive line looking a little bit better, a lot more perimeter, outside zone type of runs. And DeAndre Swift for the most part has played well. his pass protection like really really makes me nervous. Um but they're living with it and I think that's totally fine.
>> Yeah. And he still has some, you know, negative runs. There was like a first down run inside the 10 yard line where he just doesn't read his blocks at all and said just tries to cut it back directly into the Ravens defense. He's still an imperfect player. And I will add I mean Kungai is getting snaps on the first series too. So it's not like oh this is only a DeAndre Swift backfield.
>> Um, but as we've talked about, he's explosive. They've figured out their left tackle. Uh, right tackle, Darnellar Wright is totally moving people.
>> Yeah,
>> absolutely moving people. So, this is the best of DeAndre Swift at this moment.
>> Yep.
>> Ashton Genty coming out of the buy running back 13 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. What do you want to say about this one? Because uh we know this Jaguars defensive line is loaded with uh big, tall, long guys.
Yeah, it makes me nervous because the, you know, last before the bye-week, they had to bench Jackson Powers Johnson because Chris Jones just absolutely just dominated him one-on-one. So, the offensive line's still still a total problem. Colton Miller still injured. Uh, the entire season, Ashton Genty is 37th out of 40th uh, running back qualifiers and yards before contact per carry at just6. The team total is down at 21 points, which um, is definitely below average. So, on the month he's been the RB23 and RB13 usage. kind of where he's been for the most part. He's capable of a big play. Um I think that the defensive line offensive line mismatch is once again pretty striking here. So yeah, we're we've entered the RB2 land here. There's a lot of new names that are also very close in my rankings. So this is I think the the meat of the episode's about to start.
What we need to see from Ashen Genti 2, if they're going to be losing and just losing games from here on out, is for him to play more than 50% of the third down snaps. Now,
>> there's probably better metrics than this because we know this Raiders team has been losing a lot in fourth quarters and then they get like,
>> you know, Raheem Moert and D Lowi and so on and so forth of those guys in. But, uh, we need, you know, a top 10 investment at the running back position to be out there for 80% of snaps, 75% of snaps in a bad offense.
>> Yeah.
>> And and we've seen that for like two weeks and then the next couple weeks it just goes away. So, it's like one of those things where it's like hard to price that in. So, I broke a bunch of ties here in favor of Ashton Genty. Like, you could have made the argument that he should be the RB19. This week, my wife and I just moved into a new home. You know the drill. You get inspections, you get estimates, things to fix, the plumbing, the HVAC, the electrical, the roof, all that type of stuff. If you are going through a similar thing right now, I implore you to add life insurance onto that list. First of all, it's a lot easier to obtain and it's far far less expensive. and I'll point you in the direction of ethos where you can get up to $3 million in coverage and some policies are as low as $2 a day that are build monthly. The reason why it's easy is that it is not complicated and it is 100% online. There is no medical exam required and you can only answer a few questions and that's all that you need. You get a quote in as little as 10 minutes. When I signed up for life insurance, someone came to my door at 7:30 in the morning, sat in the kitchen around the dining table with them for an hour and a half. That was not with Ethos. So again, protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. It is much, much simpler. Get your free quote at ethos.com/theshow. That is ethos.com/theshow. You never think about life insurance. Hopefully this forces you to do that now.
Well, you're running back 14 as a new starter who was a starter last season. I think hopefully you're back on the train with me on the Tyrone Tracy love. And it makes sense. You're actually ahead of consensus here. He's running back 16 for them and running back 14 for you. Let's go, man. Our guy out of Purdue is back.
>> Yeah, it's just such a better situation this year than last year. So, uh, couple numbers to to prove that. From week five on last year, that's when Tyrone Tracy became the starter. Here's the RB21 per game. That offense was 28th in EPA per play. They did not have an allp pro level left tackle in Andrew Thomas for most of that. This year, Andrew Thomas has been awesome. And the offense with Jackson Dart is so much better. They're 17th in EPA per play. So, it's just a totally drastic different uh situation. Cam Scato is a fantasy RB1. I think that Scatab is better than Tyrone Tracy, but only at the margins. Um, so I think an RB2 finish the rest of the way is like totally in play. And then this week, the Giants are projected for 23 points, which is a lot more than they typically have been because the 49ers defense has none of their best players. And they're they're off their their defensive line is totally banged up. So, this is a good week. And just wanted to note the drive before Cam Scato just completely tore up his ankle. Tyrone Tracy was playing for like a big chunk of that drive. So, I feel pretty confident it's going to be Tyrone Tracy over Deon Singles as it was this last year. The only thing that can go wrong other than, you know, Andrew Thomas being injured at left tackle, which we really truly hope does not happen, is Tyrone Tracy fumbling because we had Tyron Tracy fumbles last year and it kind of derailed some plays and some moments of earning trust. Uh, if he goes scot-free the rest of the way without fumbling, I'm with you. A top 15, top 16 running back the rest of the way is in the range of outcomes here.
Travis ETN is your running back 15. You're a couple spots ahead of consensus that have him as running back 17 this week. Uh I mentioned stats versus film. September he was at 6.1 yards per carry in September and excuse me in October in three games that dropped down to 3.8. Now that can be because of losses. That can be because of who they played. Uh and you are remaining confident here in Travis ETN especially against this Las Vegas Raiders defense.
>> It was a bad month. like there's no skating around that. But they did face the Chiefs, the Seahawks, and the Rams who are all top 10ish defenses. And I think you can make the case a couple of those are like number one, two, three, you know. So, uh he only had 10.7 carries per game in those in September against uh easier uh opponents that was at 16.3. So, I'm leaning more towards September here just because the matchup is a lot easier. They get the Raiders here. The team total is up at 24 and a quarter point. So, I don't think like anything about the profile has really changed. like he's still getting the same level of like work. It's just they've been losing more than they've been winning recently. And I think that's going to flip back here. And the other thing is missing that center against those matchups was was a pretty big deal. And uh hopefully he's fully ready to go here. So we'll get the practice reports by the end of the week, but this is a much better spot for Travis ETN. I actually flipped him one spot ahead of Tyrone Tracy, too.
With a by-week, rookies play more, especially Liam Cohen saying, "Hey, we need to get our best 11 out there." Right now, it's basically three touches for Travis ETN to every one touch for Bashel Tutin. Are do you think like there's any chance we see that closer to a 50-50 split?
>> Uh, yes. Like there's definitely a chance. I think that Basel Tuton's been like kind of a work in progress. It has not been perfect. Not saying that Travis ETN has, but Travian's been playing good football. So maybe it's a little bit closer, but I would be pretty surprised if it's like 50/50 right out of the gate.
Kareem Hunt, new Chiefs starting running back most likely now that Isaiah BCO is dealing with a knee issue. Uh you are 10 spots ahead of consensus rankings here. They're at running back 26. You're at running back 16. Uh the guy was already scoring near the top of like rushing touchdowns in the league.
>> And so now we just have to add some, you know, between the 20s work for
>> Yeah. And he's going to get him. You know, Brashard Smith is a version of Tyron Tracy where he didn't even play running back in college and like he's still working out the kinks there. So, like they're going to go to Cream Hunt, who by the way like got them to the Super Bowl and is like very well trusted. So, um from week five to week 12 last year is when he was the starter without Pacheco. He was the RB 13 per game during that stretch. Keep in mind during that that stretch he was averaging 3.6 yards per carry. That offense was averaging 12 EPA per play. This offense is averaging double that at 24 EPA per play. The Chiefs team total this week is all up at at 27 points. The Bills are averaging 5.3 yards per carry allowed to running backs. They just placed another defensive tackle on on the injury report. So everything about this situation is completely underrated. In fact, this last month, the Chiefs are number one in running back usage collectively as a team that we've been splitting that up three ways. Now it's down to two ways. and he's going to get all the goal line work and this offense is like ready to go. So, I know he's old and he's slow, but he also is in the end zone a lot and that's what we play fantasy football for.
>> Yeah, Chiefs, wide receivers and tight ends and Patrick Mahomes love to get tackled at the one yard line.
>> Keep it rolling.
>> And Kareem Hunt loves to run it in from the one yard line.
>> Oh, and I'll say this, the offensive line is much better. I would not be surprised if Cream Hunt could like hit a 20 yard rush nowadays where that was like not gonna happen last year. It's possible now.
Bam Knight, let's start off in tier three. Your running back 17 this week. This is at the Dallas Cowboys and probably because of that matchup and this team, you know, cutting Michael Carter, then bringing him back in the practice squad, which probably means he'll be uh on the roster and on game days.
>> Uh but it shows like a clear delineation of their backfield. running back 22 in consensus rankings. So, you're five spots ahead here.
>> Love this one as well. So, like you said with the Michael Carter situation, that just like makes me further believe that Bam Knight's going to be the guy that we want here. Uh this month, the Cardinals are actually third in running back usage. We've kind of like flipped who's being the starter there, but I think it's very clearly Bam Knight. There's been some coaching comments as well to make me believe that. So, in the two games before the buy, those were the Jacobe Brassette games. He was up at 12.9 expected points, uh, where Michael Carter was only playing on passing downs. And then this week, we get the Cowboys who can't stop anybody and once again got completely merckked by both running backs on the Cowboys this last week. So, the Cardinals are projected for 26 points. So, like blindly take the goal line back on a running on a team that's expected to score 26 points. And that's usually the right strategy.
Let's talk about Chase Brown. um for a guy who owned 92% of touches last year and again that would equal I don't know sometimes 17 20 23 touches in a game. Reeves pointed this out. He has not cleared 15 touches in a game this season since week two. Now part of that is kind of these negative game strips. They've had some positive ones too or some neutral ones. Unfortunate aspect here is we do not know about Joe Flacco's status heading into this game against the Chicago Bears. He is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury and as we've discussed at length, there is just a massive environmental change. When is Jake Browning at quarterback versus Joe Flacco at quarterback?
>> I'm middle grounding this one. I think Flaco will play, but it sounds like he's going to need an injection because it's an AC joint injury and that's what he was doing late the last game. probably getting an injection to try to play for that final quarter. I'm guessing if you just had the data, if you got injections and you're throwing shoulder, you're probably not as good. So, it's better than the Jake Browning stuff, but it's probably not as good as what Joe Flacco has been doing. And um the team total is coming down. I think all that makes some sense. Um the the last thing wanted to note, the Bears defense has been playing a little bit better uh in October versus um September just because they've gotten some guys back. It's not the perfect defense, but it's not like the cupcake defense that maybe the spreadsheets are kind of telling you.
>> Yeah. And forcing turnovers. Like they when they force turnovers, they've been good. Despite that, though, they still, you know, allowed yardage and those types of things. And by the way, Chase Brown had some long rushes last week. The blocking was as good as we've seen it. Now, again, we can talk about the defensive matchups and those types of things, but again, I I think you can kind of put the Chicago Bears on the lesser end of run defenses at this moment.
>> Yep. He's like totally fine now. Like not sexy but not terrible.
>> That pick early on it was like totally tanking your lineups and now it can be your running back too in these by weeks. It can be your flex option in these by weeks too.
Let's talk about Jaylen Warren. Um he's also been quite a safe play this season. His worst week has been running back 28. Now, he hasn't had, you know, the peak performances in comparison to a lot of the names that we've talked about so far, but he is also averaging the third most yards after contact over expected in the league right now.
>> Yeah, I mean, all of that's from that one play where he made what, four guys miss and ran down the field. Uh,
>> this is just rushing. That's not receiving.
>> Oh, okay. All right. That's that's good to know. Yeah, I've noticed the same thing. Like this monkeyy's the RB22 and RB26 usage. He just kind of found like a nice sweet spot this last game, they got Kenny Gainwell involved in both halves, but we did not see the rookie at all. The team total is fine. It's at 23 and a half points. The Colts defense is fine. It's like everything about this is like totally fine. Like there's not like a big note that I had on Jaylen Warren. Um I would move him one spot ahead of Chase Brown now just with the the Joe Flacco um difference. Um he's a straight up he's an RB2 and I think that's where he's just gonna finish.
Raandre Stevenson is your running back 20. This is against the Atlanta Falcons. Out of 40 running backs with 50 or more runs a season, Randre ranks 38th in yards per carry. He ranks 37th in success rate. As we talked about in stats versus film, I would say overall that's like a New England Patriots interior offensive line and tight end blocking stat here. um we kind of have to pick our spots as a runner like we did against the Tennessee Titans.
But I think you could argue the Atlanta Falcons are one of those matchups that we can pick out. Uh we are going to wait for news ahead of the Sunday show though because Randre Stevenson was held out of practice on Wednesday here.
I watched his like last uh touches and I didn't see him get injured on them. So I have no idea. So this is assumed that he's ready to go. Um but yeah, the Patriots are undecided on how to use their running backs. like two weeks ago Raandre played 90% uh of the plays before garbage time and then this last week it was more of a rotation. They got Trayvon Henderson to the perimeter a bunch but then Trayvon fumbled on his last play. Uh so yeah, evening it out this month he's the RB27 RB21 usage. I like the matchup here. It's a huge uh game total. Five and a half point favorites against the Falcons. I think the Falcons defense is weakest just running the ball right at them. Um so I I do think it's a good matchup. did want to kick this back to you though. Uh ESPN's Mike Reese, he cited sources familiar with the team that they believe that they can add a running back and an edge rusher. This sounds more like kind of just speculation. Um but that was like a little bit surprising. You know, you have Arandre and Tvon. I would be surprised if they made a move, but just wanted to to float that out there.
>> Yeah, I I reposted that and a bunch of Patriots fans said, "Well, it's just for their running back three spot." And then my answer though to would be like, well, you can just get a running back three like off the street. And
>> this guy seems fine that they already have,
>> right? So again, I'm just of the belief that like the interior blocking and the tight end stuff has just been really poor. And that's been more of the issue versus the guys that have actually been carrying the football.
Um, as we see all the time, you know, when environments change,
>> then running backs are more successful in their runs. I will say this, the Patriots do run quite a bit of multiple tight end sets against two tight ends. This is from the worksheet. Atlanta is allowing nearly five yards per carry, which is 30th in the league with a league low 50% success rate. So if like Hunter Henry and who's the other tight end who was on Austin Hooper bang
>> revenge game here for Austin Hooper to get some blocking against the Atlanta Falcons and put your big boy boots on and do some road grading work.
>> Yep. That's what the matchup kind of indicates.
JK Dobbins your running back 21. He does not have a top 11 running back scoring week this season. At the same time, JK Dobbins is one of like the highest when you just look at pure rushing yards out there. Uh, and he's just been really fun to watch this year.
>> I like these stats. I use them all the time. You say he has not been the top uh 11. I can guarantee you he's been the the 12th in in a week just because the way that we're
>> he has been the 12th in a week. Yes.
>> Yes. Um, yeah, that's how I see him though. He doesn't catch enough passes. RJ Harvey's just enough involved. So, we got that Wildcat touchdown there. We got that motion play where he just had to beat the linebacker chasing him in the flats on the other side of the field to score a touchdown. So, we're seeing like some jokery stuff from R.J. Harvey, but down to down JK Dobbins remains the lead back. RB25 and RB20 usage this month. The problem is last week they were projected for a million points and they scored them because they were facing the Cowboys. Nobody scores that many points against the Houston Texans. So, the team total is down at 19 points. So, like they've shaved off more than a touchdown in the projected total here. And the Texans defense has been top 10 against fantasy running backs. No surprise there.
My point in saying that is that he has five weeks from like the running back 12 to running back 16 range.
>> Yep.
>> Yeah. And then the other the other three are like running back 23, 29, and 44. So, he's been consistent in that 12 to 16 range, but nothing that is like totally changing your week to win you your week. Yep. Totally agree there. 65 and a half total yards in the nth pick, Bobby. That feels very appropriate.
All right, let's do it. Let's talk about the two Seattle running backs because you have Zack Charbanet slightly ahead of Ken Walker here. This is against the Washington Commanders defense. And people that watch TS versus Film know that I've put the spotlight, put the microscope, some might say, like Kyle Shanahan, on Bobby Wagner and Frankie Louvu. And when you saw like DeAndre Swift and the Chicago Bears rushing attack finally get it going and the other, you know, rushing attacks the Commanders have faced since, it's these edge runs over and over and over again. They're too slow to get there. They get swallowed by, you know, uh, interior offensive linemen. And then we know the defensive ends have been injured this season, too. So, you would like to think one of the best edge runners in the NFL and Ken Walker III could have a couple of those this game, but purely from an inside the five and inside the 10 yard line usage stuff, even on his birthday, Ken Walker couldn't get any of the three opportunities to score touchdowns there. Uh, I do understand having Zack Sharp right dead.
>> Yeah, this one's close. I'm a total coward for putting him back toback. Totally uh recognize that though. Last week though in the first quarter that was a Kenneth Walker drive and he was on the the play before they were at the the goal line and then they brought Zack Charbanet in and that just kind of scared
>> on his birthday.
>> Yeah, that one that was the thing that really got me scared because typically it's like all right that was just the Charbanet drive. He scores the goal line touchdown whatever. Like this was like bring in the big boy. So we'll see here. Now like you said it's a great matchup. The defensive line depth completely gone. Bobby Wagner just circling every single week right now and the team totals up at almost 25 points. They're coming off the by-week. So the Ken Walker like injury narrative shouldn't be as much in play this week just because they're coming off the buy. But Charban has been the RB18 in usage this month. Um and Kenneth Walker's the RB 36 usage in month. We know the talent difference there and the big play ability. So I think both of them are starts here. Uh neither of them are totally bankable, but this team when they're rolling, and they should be rolling here as as favorites, uh they're a very balanced offense.
Let's talk about Dave Montgomery because he's also in a split backfield. I mentioned earlier that he's averaging around 12.7 touches per game. But that's okay when you have a team total of 28 and a half points because that likely means
>> four touchdowns scored. And one of those could easily be Deont.
>> Eight and a half point favorites. He can close out games on top of that too. Even if Gibbs starts the party, um both of them can get home here. Um the only thing I wanted to mention is the last two games before the buy, he
was at 4.1 and 8.4 expected half BPR points. The game before that was that game that we got the narrative right where his sister was in town, uh, homecoming game, and he's scored those touchdowns. Uh, but since then, it has not been as pretty for David Montgomery. So, is that, is that a small sample size noise? Is that what we're all planning for? Is that Jamir Gibbs is just going to slowly kind of break away from David Montgomery as Gibbs gets more experienced and Montgomery gets a little bit older? I'm kind of middle-grounding that, but just did want to know if there is like another dud game for David Montgomery, then like, it's time to really talk about it.
Rico Dattle is your running back 25. Uh, a lot of Rico talk this week because of the coach speak coming from Dave Canales and basically saying, "Okay, Rico, we're going to give him more use than we have since Chuba Hubbard returned from injury." I'm expecting that to be at least Rico Dattle gets the start. It should be two Rico Dattle touches to every one Juba Hubbard touch. Hayden, at the same time, that'll probably matter, matter more in future weeks than it does here on the road against the Green Bay Packers defense. >> They're rejected for 16 points and you mentioned it on Twitter, and they're going to be reshuffling their offensive line because of injuries. Um, the Packers have been the second best against fantasy running back. They're expected to win by two touchdowns here. I think at worst, it's going to be Rico Dattle as the 1A and a 50/50 rotation, but I think like more likely, maybe it's like a two drives to one drive situation in favor of Rico Dattle. So, he could still get home here, but they're going to need to get like going early on in this game. And then on top of that, Bryce Young is going to be like playing through an ankle sprain and like he's one of these guys that like I think if you remove any of his juice, like, then some of these throws get a little bit harder, some of the scrambles become a little bit harder. So, I'm like particularly nervous about Bryce Young in this environment, but also better than Andy Dalton with a bad thumb. >> Uh, yeah. And you have, you know, Michael Parsons chasing you down and he can close a bit quicker than all these other pass rushers. >> Uh, just to update the offensive line stuff, it seems like Austin Corbett's going to restart at center. Uh, then you have Chandler Zavala, who's been on injury reserve, now starting at right guard, and then Taylor Moton is not probably going to practice this week, but he still might play at right tackle. Uh, and if he doesn't, then that's Josh. So that'll be a whole new right side against like the twists and the stunts and the loops and the games of this entire Packers defensive line. So it's a, it's gonna be a rough one.
Woody Marks, your top Texans running back. We'd love to see this running back 26 against the Denver Broncos. Um, just overall, let's say it wasn't against the Broncos, which, by the way, they're without Patrick Surtain. And I believe that means the Texans are favorites in this game. Yes. Yes, they are. Um, just by a point and a half, but let's say it was a neutral, right? Neutral game against the defense. Would you still rank Woody Marks now ahead of Nick Chubb? >> Yeah, the the snaps are almost identical. So, in the first half of last week, Chubb 21, Woody Marks at 20. That pretty much maintained in in the second half, too, when the game was uh being put away. Um, they're both involved. I think Woody Marks is more likely to have a big play and they're about even for, you know, just goal line touches in general. Um, like you said, it's a terrible matchup. Even though they're favored, they're only projected for 20 and a half points. And I care way more about team totals than like game totals. Um, when looking at all this stuff, but yeah, in the last four games, Woody Marks at 11.8 expected points. Nick Chubb is at 8.5. So, if game script gets negative for whatever reason, then Woody Mars gets gets the bump. And I think he's just more likely to score a 30-yard touchdown. So the matchups like the reason why he's down this low, only Jonathan Taylor's put up more than 70 rushing yards against the Broncos this season. And we even saw with the extra protection that Texans put out there last week that when you have all these downfield routes and then the running back, you know, flows out into the flats, uh, he can catch it and run for a 44-yard game, which is really >> Yes. And we've talked about the six offensive lineman stuff, noting like the big crossing route, but most of the six offensive lineman stuff is to get better matchups on the ground. Like I think 20 of the 26 uh plays with the six offensive linemen, it was to run the ball. And they'll need that because you get like Nick Nick Bonito, these defensive linemen, uh, Drake Greenawalt types, and then Talanoa Hufanga coming crashing down too. So it's, I'm curious if they're going to stick with that six offensive lineman stuff. It worked last week, so I hope they do.
Bill Kroski Merritt is your running back 27. This is against the Seattle Seahawks. We're expecting Jalen Daniels to return in this game. Uh, they are projected for 22 and a quarter points, which is nice. Uh, but you know, they're dealing with offensive line injuries. Larry Tonso left, then came back, then left in that game. Sam Cosmi is just coming back from an injury. Uh, Brennan Coleman, yeah, Brennan Coleman, I think is just coming back from an injury as well. So, we'll see against this, you know, rugged, tenacious, aggressive Seattle defense. >> Yeah, it's just a bad spot for Bill. You know, he needs positive game script because he gets subbed out later in the game. They're pretty balanced on offense in general. And uh, even when they get down there at the goal line, Jalen Daniels and Debo and those guys are always in line to steal some touches. So this month, he's the RB24 and RB33 usage. You get the Seahawks, I think they're the best defense in the NFL. Um, their defensive line's just totally kickass. So it's not a surprise that the team total is sitting here below average. He he needs positive game script. Not that different than Brian Robinson last year when he was kind of flirting, uh, maybe as like my RB16 to RB28 depending on the matchup.
Brashard Smith is next. Anything you want to add here? We already discussed Kareem Hunt. I would expect, you know, more true running back touches from the backfield in quarters one through quarters three versus us seeing that when they're up 17 points on, I think it was the Raiders or whoever. >> Yeah, it's a good spot if you're in a full PPR league and you want to break some ties in favor of Brashard Smith. Totally uh justifiable. The team total is up at 27 points. In theory, the Bills offense can make the Chiefs actually get into negative game script, which would help Bashard Smith, too. So, I think he's totally in play for flex questions. I do not think he's an RB2 yet, but there's plenty of upside here. Uh, like I said with Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs this month are number one in running back usage as a team. So, when we cut that from three to two, both guys get a huge bump.
Next up, let's do both Vikings backs here because you have Aaron Jones, then a spot, and then Jordan Mason, uh, right after that. >> Anything you want to add? I mean, this is at the Detroit Lions. Vikings have scored a touchdown on just 18.4% of their drives this year. That's 26th in the league. They've also converted only 43% of their third and short plays, which is 31st in the NFL. >> Yep. That's what happens when you have uh injured offensive linemen. And then unfortunately, just Jordan Mason did not fully continue to hit the ground running. Had a good start, but then just kind of faded away. The entire offense was just completely out of whack. Um, this one's tough because Aaron Jones made his debut from injury on a Thursday night, maybe a week before I was kind of expecting him to, and then he like immediately is playing and getting more snaps than Jordan Mason. So like >> it's tough though because if we're going to be, let's say this is near a 50/50 split, the team total is down at 20 points and the Vikings this month have been 31st in running back usage. So, and the Lions can kind of just run the ball like crazy here and just like completely take control of of the game clock and then who JJ McCarthy is the biggest wild card in the NFL right now. He could bounce back and look good and this offense could be league average again, or it can just be like, all right, there's a reason why he, they keep talking about his his footwork and why he took so long to get back. So, I'm curious to watch this offense, but I don't have big expectations for any of these running backs. >> Yeah, the Lions have only faced 21 backfield touches per game uh so far, which is the third fewest. And then you're splitting that in half. >> Yeah. Yep. 48 and a half total yards in the pick and Bobby for Aaron Jones.
Okay, Kanungai is the sandwich here between them as your running back 30. Uh, I'll add while we're recording the show, missing practice on Wednesday, DeAndre Swift with a groin injury and Roschon Johnson with a back injury. Again, that is just Wednesday's practice. Who knows? But um, that also could be an answer of why Kumanai is getting, you know, 45% of the work now, too. >> Yeah, it's been like that for a little bit now with DeAndre Swift. He's just like always on the practice report. He just plays through it. But maybe that's why Kungai closed the gap. But that was 46% of the snaps last week and that was not just because they were trailing, um, like he was getting involved early on. So since the post-bye rookie bump, he's the RB35 and RB41 usage. Huge team total up at 27 points. You can throw some dart throws here. So like I would rather if you're going to start an RB2, we're going to talk about the Tennessee Titans and whatnot here coming up. I would rather do it on the team projected to score four touchdowns than uh two.
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Well, one of those teams is Alvin Kamara as the lead back for the Saints. Kendre Miller was playing great. Good. Uh, then Kendre Miller goes down with injury and rather than Alvin Kamara, who does not want to be traded, and he's, I don't >> Does he want to play football or does he want the money? >> I'm going to make this joke. Have you ever seen that meme recently of like people sitting in an office and one person in a costume? It's like, how do I become important at work? Like obviously Alvin Kamara has been an 80% workhorse back in the past. But it feels like this year, the year of 2025, uh, Alvin Kamara just wants to be a 55% out there. >> He does. And that's how he was used this last game. So it was like a pretty much even split. Devin played a lot more of the snaps in the second half and tomorrow was dealing with like some type of injury out there. The bottom line is last week, they were not going to run the ball on the freaking Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nobody does against Vea, especially when you don't have your starting center. Unfortunately, nobody runs the ball on the Rams either. So, the Rams are yet to allow a rushing touchdown to running backs this year. For reference, 60 different running backs have scored a touchdown this season. None have been against the freaking Rams. Um, it's tough. It's tough right now for Alvin Kamara and we didn't even mention Taysom Hill, which if they do get down to finally score a touchdown, it could be to Taysom Hill. >> Yeah, and look, maybe they are more feisty with Tyler Shough, or they could be even worse with Tyler Shough than they have been with Spencer Rattler. We're not sure the outcome. Uh, and then yeah, Tyler Shough against the Rams pass-rushing unit and especially that Eric McCoy up the middle. >> Make a guess what what what you think is going to be Shough better or worse than Rattler? Make a guess. >> I think it's going to be worse. I think it's worse. >> Okay. >> But it's also just going to be a different styling, too. He, he just doesn't have as much of like the get out of jail >> card as Spencer R does in terms of like converting a third and 12 on a scramble for 13. >> If you want to go full just like PR for Alvin Kamara here, it would be >> Shough doesn't want to get hit. Everyone knows that. Let's throw some screens to Alvin Kamara. But that's kind of wishcasting because we just have not seen the receiving work from Alvin Kamara the entire season. And why would you? You got Rashid Shaheed, maybe for one more week here, and Chris Olave. Like, why would you throw screens to a running back who wants to sip in coladas?
All right, I don't think you have anything to say about Nick Chubb because we already discussed what he marks. So why don't we go to the Titans backfield? You have Taj Spears ranked ahead of Tony Pollard as running back 34 and 35. This is against the Chargers. They are at home and yeah, Taj Spears has been really fun. Uh, enjoyable carries and things, but they're gonna lose this game. >> Yeah, the Virginia for 17 damn points, man. You know, like, and they're cutting this one pretty much even. It's a version of what the Panthers have been doing where Tony Pollard starts, then Taj Spears gets a big stint, then goes back to Pollard and back and back and back and back. I think Spears is better than Tony Pollard at this point. And even if he wasn't, the Titans have every incentive with their record to play the guy that's under contract moving forward rather than Tony Pollard. So, we'll see. >> We'll see. >> And we actually, we won't see. Like, let's be honest, we won't see.
RJ Harvey is next. We talked about his runs uh and plays at length. Uh, you know, two were third and goal situations. One was a long 40-yard that he got out in the edge. We'll see if that grows or if it shrinks uh for his role with the Broncos. And again, this is at the Houston Texans, which is a defense that matters. Uh, they are a top five unit across the league. >> Um
Blake Corum is next. Anything you want to add about Blake Corum? Because I kind of feel like he's been totally forgotten in the entire landscape of this, which he shouldn't be. Like there have been numerous games where he's definitely eating into the work of Kyren Williams, including like that goal line touchdown that Kyren did not get. >> Yeah, it's kind of these like a series drive at a time will just like all of a sudden be put on Blake Corum's plate. And if those are the touchdown drives, then guess what? He can finish as an RB2 like as a complete dart throw. The team's projected to score a million points. Um, so if it is that two-thirds, one-third split here, then why not? And I think that's more likely than Blake Corum getting completely erased. Like they, they've just made too many comments. So I know Blake Corum had that one fumble and they did not let him play another snap that game. But I think take a deep breath and play Blake Corum. They, they do like him. >> I mean, a 29 team total here. >> Yeah, >> I think there are worse punts potentially.
Chuba Hubbard and then Trevon Henderson close out this top 39. I'm assuming you have nothing left to say because we've discussed both those players here at length. All right, that's going to do it. Again, if you made it to the end, go and play an underdog. We're in 41 of 50 states right now. Prediction Markets or Sportsbook or Pick 'em or Fantasy Games Battle Royale's out there. That wasn't the case, you know, two, three years ago. So, if you've been watching us for that long right now, click the link in the description down below, use promo code the show. And if you play $5 for the first time, we'll give you $100 in bonus credits on top of that. So, if you watch NBA, if you're watching the World Series, obviously we got NFL and college football stuff, too. Go and play on underdog. That's going to do it. Mo and Hayden and we accept my trade. We'll talk to you soon. See?