Transcription
Maybe. I think we're live. I hope we're live. Let's find out. Hold on real quick, everybody. Let me make sure that uh we are actually live. I've got some lag in the uh in the video. Actually, a lot of lag.
Well, everybody, welcome to NFA Live. I'm glad we can affirm this. As ever, I'm joined by my compatriots, Guy from Coin Bureau and Ben from the Cryptoverse. How is everybody doing today?
Doing good, thanks, Rob. I I tell you what, I'm doing a lot better since I first clapped eyes on that shirt you're wearing. That's lifted my mood enormously. Look, we can't all just wear white shirts like we did last time. We must all color coordinate into the best versions of ourselves. So, thank you Guy for mentioning that. I appreciate it. Ben, how you doing, buddy?
Good. Just uh covering from Las Vegas. That was a fun time.
Anyhow, so everybody at home, if you're not subscribed to these two gentlemen, that's uh would be insane. There's a couple of channels you might want to check out. There's links in the description. Guy and Nick from Coin Bureau. There's also Coin Bureau, more Coin Bureau, Coin Bureau Trading, Coin Bureau, Espanol, and Coin Bureau Chinese, which is I've not checked that one out, but the Coin Bureau Espanol and trading. Fantastic stuff. Also, you can check out Guy over on his X account with his almost 1 million followers right now. So, looking pretty good. Ben, of course, 900,000 subscribers over there on YouTube and doing quite great. I think he's just a little bit behind to get that 1 million. But he does have that on X. So if you want to check check him out over there, there's plenty of options for you.
So Jents, let's get into it today. So there's a couple of questions I want to talk about and really it starts off with let's talk about the big picture, which is the macro. So Trump and as I call her, Crypto Karen, they want to abolish this thing called the debt ceiling. And if we do that, will that be one of those things that will put us into even more debt or will this be an actual good thing for us to abolish the debt ceiling here in the United States?
As a reminder, this just came out this morning. I I found this looks like uh the Treasury just bought back the most amount it's ever done, roughly $10 billion. And then of course on Truth Social, you can see that Trump is uh really pushing for this debt ceiling to actually be lifted and for us to just start buying like crazy. And as a reminder, this was actually from Toby. It's pretty funny. Uh quit pretending there's a debt limit. Look at this chart. This is what America does. So is this a good thing for us to eliminate the debt ceiling and we can pump funds into it or is this actually a bad thing? Because let's be honest, if we have no debt ceiling, then we can just start spending like crazy. And usually Congress is not really good as far as fiscal responsibility. Guy, I'm going to start with you on this one first, then we'll get into like uh some price predictions and four-year cycle stuff.
Okay. Yeah. Um I mean, I guess because you guys as in as in uh America has this sort of not quite annual thing, doesn't it? that the debt ceiling the debt ceiling gets hit and then there's a whole load of debate about whether or not to raise it and the spectre of a sort of government shutdown looms and you know apparently Uncle Sam's going to run out of money, federal employees won't be paid. Um and then usually sort of fairly close to the deadline, the debt ceiling just gets raised anyway and everyone just kind of carries on um until the next time. And it's all just, you know, it's it's all a bit of a it feels like a bit of a pantomime really. It's like uh you know, are you going to raise the debt ceiling? Nope. Nope. Nope. Yes. Yes, actually we are. And it and it just carries on. I mean, it's it's kind of it's kind of crazy as uh as Trump sort of highlighted in that post of his that that him and Elizabeth Warren uh both agree on this. But I kind of I kind of think in terms when you're talking about US debt, which I think the if I'm right in think if I'm right in saying this, the interest payments on US debt are now larger than the defense budget, which itself is apparently larger than the defense budgets of I think the next six biggest military spending nations combined. It's it's wild how much money we're talking about here. like China, Russia, the UK, France, whatever they, you know, even what they spend on defense together doesn't match what the US spends on defense. And now you guys are spending more on interest payments for the debt. Um, so I mean that that's that's crazy. And I have it has to be said the US isn't the only economy uh that is in this sort of situation. Like France, for instance, is deeply in debt. I think the UK is deeply in debt. I'm sure mo lots of other um major uh economies are in in deep in debt. Um but sooner or later, you know, the US is by is is by far and away, you know, it's heading towards 40 trillion now. Yes. Um, and no one, well, first of all, there doesn't seem to be any politician brave enough to actually tackle it because there there aren't an awful lot of options for tackling it other than, you know, giving other than causing voters immense amount of pain. Um, and especially if you look at if you look at the sort of average age of so many politicians nowadays, a lot of them are, you know, towards the older end of the spectrum. So you kind of think, well, they're not really incentivized to do anything about it because by the time the the reckoning comes, you know, they'll be they'll be long gone. Um, but you sort of think, well, sooner or later a reckoning is going to come and the the more you kick the can down the road, the the bigger and nastier that reckoning gets, you know, in the future. Um, and I guess the only option that that you're left with that politicians are left with is to try and in inflate the debt away, which is what I think will, you know, which what I think they're basically doing. Um, and if you want a case, if you want to make a case for Bitcoin, if you, you know, if you want, if someone said, "Give me one good reason why I should invest in Bitcoin," that's it. because you know the the dollars in your pocket are becoming worth less and less every day. And that is I think partly by design in order to deal with this mountain of debt. And you know people talk about a one a $1 million Bitcoin at some point in the future. They're probably right. It's just that those that $1 million won't be worth what $1 million is worth today. Um and you know I I mean I could go on about this for a for a long time. So, I I'll I'll I'll let Ben um um have his say on this one. But I think what's extraordinary is that you've had Elon Musk come out recently and say that he's, you know, he's deeply unhappy with this this uh one big beautiful bill uh that they're trying to weigh through which will basically ra I think is, you know, most estimates say will raise the debt by at least two trillion and possibly more. So, um I'm left kind of wondering. It's like, well, you know, when when he colonizes Mars, will they uh will they have a different financial model or will they have a national debt there? But, yeah, it's a huge it's it's the elephant in the room, I think. And and sooner or later, it's it's kind of, you know, it's going to have to be dealt with, and that's going to be that's going to be really bad.
Yeah. I couldn't have said it better myself. Unfortunately, that's what America is good at. We're good at a couple things, right? diabetes, obesity, and of course, debt. So, Ben, what do you got for this one? Is this actually an okay thing to do as far as remove this ceiling debt? Because, you know, like Guy said, we're kicking this can down the road. We've been doing this for quite some time. I'm waiting for the big recession everybody keeps talking about. It's going to happen. Or can we just push this as far down as we possibly can?
Well, they're great at kicking the can down the road. They do that all the time. I mean, I don't really have a whole lot to add to what Guy said. I I would add uh what I would add is I I would just simply say that I think the uh the bond vigilantes will will will be back again to have their say uh which essentially means right if they're going to keep doing that which they can do and uh it's kind of like that chart you showed earlier right like the idea of there even being a debt ceiling it's kind of comical considering that it just goes up and to the right non-stop but and and even just hear Guy talk about it like I always think about like gosh what do like what do what do other countries must must think of us that this is a thing that we talk about and we argue about. Um when a lot of countries don't argue about like that kind of stuff like where they pretend like there's a ceiling and then at the last minute they raise it anyways and then it's like well why did we go through this again? But I I think the biggest repercussions will likely just be that the long end of the old curve will likely go up. um uh because you know if they're going to they're going to just keep spending like drunken sailors which is what they're great at doing then that's the only direction left for the long end to go and I I I think you know if you look at what happened in Q1 uh we saw risk assets go down and when when risk assets were going down we actually saw the long end of the yield curve drop uh a considerable amount. Um, so we know what what needs to happen in order to actually have lower rates, right? We know what needs to happen. We need to have lower asset prices, right? That's the only way that we're actually going to see the long end of the old curve go down. So, it kind of reminds me of of some of the things we've talked about before. Um, like kind of, you know, like how how we talk we used to talk about like Ethereum going home and stuff, right? like in order for for ETH Bitcoin to find a nice rally, first of all, ETHUSD has to go where we don't want it to go. So, it's almost like the same thing where in order for the long end of the old curve to go down and for us to have lower mortgage rates and and you know, just lower rates in general, you need lower asset prices. And until they allow that, uh that's what we're likely going to see. So, I have a feeling they're going to try to kick the can down the road again. eventually the bond vigilantes will return and have their say and then maybe people will finally get the memo as to what needs to happen to actually solve this mess that we're in.
Well, I will just say, yeah, I I agree with what you both say. I I I think though that as the debt starts to rise and we see there just a big flood of, you know, just just removing the debt ceiling, then we have all that that that would be a like Guy actually said, this would be a great case for, you know, Bitcoin, which is good for us. It's bad for middle class and a whole host of especially the the lower class as far as like in the poverty levels because if you don't have assets then what do you do? You know the savings that you have or the money that you actually make it just gets inflated away and all the people that are are rich will get even richer because they're the ones that own the assets. So, the ones that are watching this video, I'm glad that you guys are here because if you have assets, I think you're going to do quite well. And if you don't, it's going to be a very hard world to live in, especially if we just see what's going to happen in the next year, two years, four years. It's anybody's guess. But that would lead me to my next question about assets and well, one of the big assets uh or commodities, which would be gold. And we're talking about parallels. I was talking about this yesterday about uh where Bitcoin is going as we always do. But I took a look at the last this is the uh gold chart and I'm taking a look at uh when gold came out for its United States uh ETF back in 2004 and it kind of parallels what's going on with Bitcoin right now. And we see this in this was in November 19th, November 18th, 2004. And for roughly 18 months, it did some pretty great things for the investors that were into Bitcoin. And 18 months later, we peaked out and then we had a big huge drop and off it went. But it was an 18-month type of thing. And if we take a look here, Bitcoin and its ETF actually came out on January 9th, 10th, 11th, somewhere around there, 2024. And we're coming up to that 18 month. then it's done a pretty good thing, a pretty big thing just moving upwards. So my question, I'll start with you, Ben, is this is because of these four-year cycles that we love to talk about. Is this just out the window and sense now that we have an ETF, it Bitcoin will just grind up just like how gold does with peaks and valleys or will we still have the four-year cycle intact? And it's just something to take a look at because if we're going to talk about, you know, gold, um, and we are replacing gold or it's gold 2.0 or a better version of it, are we just following in the footsteps of gold?
Yeah, that's a good one, Ben. But you are muted.
Sorry. Those are my low caps recommendations again. Um, um, no, I mean, I don't really feel like Bitcoin has ever much behaved like gold. And I mean honestly that's been a good thing said it had. I don't really think a lot of us would even be interested in crypto if Bitcoin behaved like gold because it hasn't really done a whole lot. Um but yeah I mean I I I I I still think the four-ear cycle is a thing. I I think that I mean my guess is that the next low the next major low will probably be near the end of 2026. Um, I guess that would kind of correspond, but you but you could see like diminishing losses, right? Like you could see, you know, volatility compression where, you know, the highs aren't as high, but the lows also aren't as low. And we've even already seen that with Bitcoin through the first four cycles. Like the first draw down we had was like 94%. And then the second one was 87 and then the third one was 84 and then the fourth one was 77. So, we're already seeing volatility compression to the downside and obviously we've seen volatility compression to the upside as we have unfortunately been observing diminishing returns in terms of like you know the return of Bitcoin if you measure it from low to high or high to high or even low to low. Right? No matter how you measure it, we've seen sort of diminishing returns for Bitcoin. So, you know, I I think it kind of like I mean gold, but I I I think it's just a sign of a maturing asset class, right? Where, you know, like there's still going to be drops, right? And there's still going to be rallies, but you you probably just won't see as much volatility um as as we used to see. So, I mean, I I wouldn't say it's following in gold's footsteps. Um, because I I don't really think it's behaved like gold that much throughout the at least throughout the decade that I've been watching Bitcoin. But, I do think just in general getting an ETF, like any asset class that's previously gotten an ETF, right, like it it can eventually lead to to compressed uh volatility. That's not always true in the short term. I mean, sometimes you get ETF launches and and you know, you'll do well for a while, then you'll have sort of a bare market and then you'll get extremely, you know, compressed volatility. And we've seen that happen with with um other asset classes. So, you know, long story short, my guess is that we'll we'll continue to see, you know, compressed volatility uh both to the upside and and the downside. I wouldn't I wouldn't say though it's necessarily following in gold's footsteps.
Gotcha. All right. So with that one, Guy, I'll bring it back to you as far as gold goes. And I know this is like something that people like, I would really have to talk about gold, but I just want to take a look at and see if I'm missing something. Guy, anything else to add with that one?
Not not a huge amount. I mean I think yeah it is it is difficult to draw par to draw clear parallels between between gold and bitcoin and especially when you talk in terms of ETFs as well because I I think it you know it's fair to say that economic circumstances and just you know I guess just um circumstances in general were very very different when uh back when the gold ETFs launched in what was it late 2004 to uh to when Bitcoin Bitcoin ETFs launched in certainly in the US in in early early last year 2024. So, you know, there's a 20 years 20 years difference and a lot a lot changed in that time. And of course, it also it also sort of assumes, you know, if you're if you're looking for a correlation between or a similarity between gold and bitcoin, it also kind of assumes that ETF inflows are the main driver of price. And I mean certainly with Bitcoin and certainly shortly after those ETFs were launched, there's a that was probably the case. Whether ETF inflows for for Bitcoin and indeed for gold drive price as much as um you know other types of buying is is harder to say now. Um and I think I think Bitcoin has has kind of come of age bit well come of age come along you know Bitcoin has appeared in an in a different era and attracted I think a largely sort of different kind of investor. Um and it you know it's I suppose you could argue that perhaps it's possible that Bitcoin sort of trades more like silver than it does like gold because it's a higher risk and and therefore higher reward bet on gold which is you know which is basically what silver is as well. So perhaps there's, you know, perhaps there's more parallels that you can draw between um between uh Bitcoin and silver than than between Bitcoin and gold. Um but you know, to take it back to to take it back to what you said earlier, Rob, at the end of that the last section we were talking about and to to paraphrase uh Lyn Alden, you know, nothing stops this train. So anything that has a limited supply relative to the growth of the money supply will will likely gain value over time. So if that's if that's Bitcoin, if that's if that's stocks, if that's gold, uh whatever, you know, it's it's you need it you need it as a hedge in this increasingly, you know, as the fiat Ponzi scheme, um you know, starts to unwind.
That's a good point. And you know what I I will say like as far as like gold, I showed everybody this which was just a very it was a zoomed in type of look as far as gold goes. But if we actually zoom out and uh even if we do as well as gold does and that's just taking a look at gold which I what is I'm I'm going to say is between an 18 and 22 trillion market cap. Now if we can capture some of that with this type of price action. This of course is going back to where I was just talking about this little piece here but imagine us going to this piece. I mean, it could be a pretty big thing, but again, that takes time and and not a lot of people want to stick around and only the ones that stick around are the ones that are going to be actually uh the ones that will benefit. So, thank you for that input. I appreciate that. So, now let's talk into one of our last questions, which is companies. And I I get concerned about this and uh Cyphade talked about this and I talked about this yesterday because there's so many companies that are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet. This is a good thing. This
Is great. Micro Strategy is, of course, the leader, and other companies are are coming in. But I wonder if these companies really understand the value argument of Bitcoin, or if they're just putting into it because number go up.
And when we do these types of things, we've got over 60, maybe 70 now, different companies, and it seemed like new companies come out every time. And if this does continue to happen and they don't, they they're not well-versed in the volatility, which they should be obviously, right? But they were supposed to be; people were supposed to be versed in volatility in 2021. But just like Ben was talking about, when we go from these different cycles, you have on this on the first one in 2013 to 2015, we dropped 85% from the high to the to the low. In 2017, it was 84%, and in 2021 to 2022 was 77%.
So if we look at that 85, 84, 77, what if we drop 70% from the high? And if that high was roughly 112,000 on May 22nd, that means we get a 34k Bitcoin at a 70% drop. And if I don't know, we go up to 150K and we do a 70% drop. And this is being conservative, we're down to 45K. And if we do hit 200K, which uh, Coin Bureau just had a video on that one, if it goes to 200K, we're looking at a 60K drop. So these companies right now, as I've taken a look at it, they have purchased Bitcoin, majority the majority in between that 90k to 110k uh level. And if we just keep going up, they're going to keep buying, just like Michael Sailor does and Micro Strategy; that's the whole playbook.
So my question is this: If this happens, will we see an even greater fall because these companies will start to get the pressure from their shareholders to say, "Hey, you guys were supposed to invest into something that was, you know, a hedge, and now we're going down. Sell this stuff as soon as possible." These are the risks that I see. Is this going to happen, or you think they're already well-versed in this? And Guy, I'll start with you because you just left off.
Yeah, it's um, there's definitely… Do you remember I think it was in um the last cycle or so, maybe 2021 I think it was um, was it Long Island Iced Tea Company changed its name to the Long Island Blockchain or blockchain company or something like that?
Sure.
And do you remember that? It was um, yeah, it was one of those sort of real moments of of froth. And I I do kind of think back to that time when I see this kind of when when I see this sort of growing avalanche of of of companies adopting this Bitcoin treasury strategy because yeah, I think if you look at if you look at the likes of Micro Strategy obviously and some one of the newcomers like 21, which is uh which has got Jack Mallers at the helm, you know, whatever your whatever you think of the likes of Michael Sailor and Jack Mallers, whatever you think of the strategy they're pursuing there, you can't say that these guys don't know what they're talking about, as in these guys understand Bitcoin on a level that most of us will never get close to. Um, and there's, you know, there's evidence all over the internet. Um, you know, to to to back that up. Like these guys really do know what they're talking about. Do the CEOs and the, you know, and the CFOs and all the people behind all these other companies now adopting, you know, the strategy, strategy, you know, the Bitcoin treasury strategy, do they all understand Bitcoin to the extent that Michael Sailor and Jack Mallers do?
100% no.
100% no. Like I'm sure a few of them will have uh will have looked into it carefully and will, you know, will understand, but I think this really does uh smack of a lot of, you know, a lot of people going, "Hey, this is this is a good way this is a good way to pump the share price." Like, this is working very this is a, you know, a very um profitable strategy. Um, certainly in in the short term. Um, but it it it worries me a lot like how many of them are doing this because they believe in what we were talking about earlier in the idea of Bitcoin as a hedge against against the fiat system, against the devaluing dollar. And how many of them are doing it because it's a great PR stunt and their share price will go and you know the inside the the insiders of that company will be able to uh will be able to cash out. So yeah, it it's definitely it's definitely something that feels very frothy and gives me a lot of concern.
So to answer your question then, will they if things if things if we get a downturn if things go bad um will they panic sell? And I guess I guess the answer is probably yes, some of them will because as you say, Rob, they'll come under pressure from shareholders who themselves a lot of them won't understand Bitcoin and its long-term value proposition who will go, "Look, we're we're we're getting we're getting margin called here, the the the bailiffs are at the door, we got to sell something." So, you know, you've got to sell this Bitcoin. Um, and obviously, yeah, and and that could that could lead to uh cascade if you throw if you throw liquidations in because let's face it, if the market's going up only and we get to 200, so many people will be long. And we've seen we see this time after time. The market dips, the euphoria cools off, and those liquidations take us even lower. And it and yeah, it could definitely get it could definitely get pretty ugly. That said, um, I think I think it's interesting to consider that a lot of uh entities now holding uh Bitcoin and especially, you know, like pension funds and things like this, you would hope that maybe they wouldn't be so so quick to sell. You would hope that maybe kind of cooler heads prevail there. Um, and I think that's and obviously you would imagine that Michael Sailor would would kind of rather die than sell um sell any of Micro Strategy's Bitcoin, especially now that uh that those wallets have been identified. Um, so yeah, I guess it comes down it it will get it will get ugly. Um, it just comes down I guess how much debt have these companies taken on to acquire this this Bitcoin as well. But it's certainly it's certainly a risk.
Yeah.
Yeah, I can see that for sure. Ben, what about you?
Not a big deal. You think it's just like a couple of fringe companies on the outskirts just doing what Guy said? It's a stunt and they're going to sell, and that's okay cuz the other 90% will skip it. I mean, there's always going to be buyers and sellers, right? Even at the institutional level, but I think I I think that we're, you know, I think we've we've talked about this a little bit before. Um, I I think the narrative that you talked about, Rob, will likely play out in terms of, you know, maybe some of the fringe companies selling. My guess is it's a lot of that's probably going to happen next year. Um, it kind of reminds me of of, you know, sort of 2021 in the sense that like you can see the narratives unfolding, right? You could see, you know, all these big platforms back then that were offering all this excessive yield that everyone knew was risky and like everyone knew it was going to come back to bite us one day, but because it wasn't going to happen immediately, no one cared, right? It was like, "Oh well, you know, when it happens, we'll deal with it then." And then we had the midterm year, and then that's when we dealt with it. So, I I think that we will see this narrative play out. Um, my guess is that, you know, I'm hoping that some of the earlier people in like Sailor, I mean that's the big one, right? uh that they can survive because their cost basis is a lot lower. I think Sailor's is maybe just below 70K. Um, whereas a lot of the other companies like a lot of the copycats are a lot higher uh you know at 100K, maybe even higher than that. And so we're probably going to learn the lesson again, you know, why you shouldn't be late. And there you have it, the the margin called thing, right? Again, they've become force sellers. It's not, you know, the companies that sell like even in 2022, right? The companies that had to sell, a lot of them would have never imagined having to sell. Uh, but they, you know, a lot of people just ended up having to liquidate their crypto just to get it off exchanges, you know, just to, you know, transfer it out and then get rid of it as quickly as they could just so they wouldn't be part of the part of the downfall. So I I think the narrative will play out uh especially for the late the late copycats um uh that will that maybe maybe you're just doing it last minute because they see seller. It's the same thing that you see in in any uh bull market, right? The people that get in early reap the rewards, right? Sailor's reaping the rewards for getting in as early as he did. And then the people that come in later, it doesn't mean that they can't reap some rewards for some time. I mean, like even now, Bitcoin is not that far away from all-time highs. It just means that, you know, whenever the next downturn will occur, uh sustained downturn, not just like a one to two month drop, uh which probably in say like 2026, uh that'll be the narrative, right? It'll be all the the late copycats that are uh you know basically just being forced to um to liquidate and hopefully some of the ones that have been around sooner earlier. They have a much lower cost basis and they can they can weather the storm. Again, it's just like any retail investor, right? If you if you bought Bitcoin, you know, at at 15K or or 20K or 25K, it's a lot easier to weather draw downs that like we just had the 74K, right? But if you bought Bitcoin for the first time at 100K, then you're probably more likely to sell when we went down to 74K just a few months ago because you just don't have that same that same entry. So, you'll probably see the same thing happen. But I think again it's it's probably the narrative for next year if I had to guess.
Yeah.
Yeah. I I just wanted to bring this to everybody's attention because like we there's like little things we talk about. Mostly people are talking about the whole bullishness and things like that. I just want to bring people back a little bit to reality and go, "Hey, it's not up into the right forever. There's gonna be things that are happen." I want everybody to be aware because at some point you're gonna have to plan for these things, and hopefully you plan before the action happens as opposed to uh planning when it's happening. So gentlemen, thank you for that one. And the last question for today is goes off of the crypto and talks about AI. I just want to I was just curious like what you guys are using if you're using AI at all for your day-to-day operations and then what do you see is going to happen in the next two or three months. I just saw a video; a new company came out and they're able to clone your voice perfectly. Perfectly. And you can make that as your AI agent and do all the type different types of things. I forget the name of the company. I'll find at some point. But what are you guys using AI for right now, if at all? Ben, got anything with that for the for end of the cryptoverse or not?
Yeah, I mean a few things. Um, my thumbnails have been upgraded, you know, ever since AI was created. We went from seventh-grade PowerPoint presentation thumbnails to uh you know to something better. Uh, I just I, you know, the reason I never wanted to to create thumbnails was because I thought it was just like a waste, you know, I just thought it was a waste of time. Like I'll just put something up there. No one's going to care. Um, but with AI, I mean, I literally can make the thumbnail just as fast, right? I mean, it's literally just go to go to um, you know, ChatGPT or or whatever it is and then just type in, "Make me a thumbnail for this video." And a lot of times I I'm nice to it. I say please. Uh, yeah, you know, that maybe if if if they ever get to the consciousness level, they'll they'll think about the ones you were nice to them. Um, but uh the thumbnails um I use it that I mean honestly that's like the main thing I use it for as far as crypto is as far as crypto is concerned. Um, but I I will use it for a lot of other things. I mean, like even if you just Google stuff like it'll you'll see like the AI overview at the top now. Um, which kind of makes you wonder, you know, like I mean that seems like that's more or less more or less the direction we're heading. I I think there's a good chance that, you know, in a few years, like the idea of, you know, when you Google something and then searching through like 30 or 40 different um or, you know, like the first page of of links, that'll just be a thing of the past, right? And when you Google something, you'll just basically take the AI overview as like the answer, you know, like where you're just going to assume that it's going to give you the best result and you don't want to waste your time sort of sorting through the mess. The other thing I use it for uh is if I don't know what something is, I take a picture of it and I just ask, "What is this?" Um, and it's really good. It's really really good at I actually just did it yesterday. We had this um I went into my garage and there was this like massive snake in the garage, like it was like five feet long, and I took a picture of it and I was said I said, "What is this?" And it it told me exactly what what the snake was. So, um, yeah, I mean, that's mostly what I've used it for. Uh, I I can see though like why it would be really be useful for, you know, maybe if you if you could have an agent, like an AI agent, like I I I see the value in that. I just think that um like I haven't gotten I haven't gotten to that point uh where I've really implemented those sorts of things. But I do envision that like we we're sort of seeing what the future holds. Like I mean, AI is only going to become more it's only going to become a bigger part of our lives as time goes on would be my guess. So I think I'm going to keep trending in the direction of using it more and more um and and not uh less and less. Um so that's mostly that's mostly and I I mean I feel like if you're in college a lot of people are using it to help uh with assignments and stuff, but um what, no way with assignments, I'm not at that. I I think back to like grad school. I'm like, "Man, like I can't tell you how many like Python scripts I had to write to like analyze the simulation data that I I created. I'm like, 'Man, like if I could have just gone to to ChatGPT and said, "Hey, write a Python script for this."' I mean, it would have saved me so much time. I mean, like I I like I probably could have done my PhD in like three years instead of five, you know, if I could have just saved all that time coding. I mean, it's crazy how much time like I mean, I don't even want to think about it because I feel like I just there's the amount of time I I wasted coding so many things when had this tool existed, you know, five years earlier, it would have probably saved me two years of my life. So, um, yeah, I mean, I think those are some of the main use cases for me.
Yeah, I I I will say I was talking to, uh, Sebastian, which if you guys don't know, obviously know, he's he's kind of like the main lead there for Into the Cryptoverse. And I asked him, "Hey, Sebastian, are you using uh AI?" He's like, "Yeah, for like the more tedious things to like help out with the website and to bring things in and to do stuff." He goes, "I let the the AI code ChatGPT do it and then we fill in in the back rest." I'm like, "Oh, that makes that makes a lot of sense." And then before before I get to it, like when you were talking about that snake, this is what this is how I use it. One, so I'm I'm donating time at the uh at the local animal shelter and I see this on the ground. It's a baby it's a bird. It's a baby bird. And I'm like, and it's alive. And I'm like, "Hey, what is this? And how do I save this?" And then I put took the picture and it said this is a it told me the type of bird it was. It told me what to do. It told me where to put it back so it doesn't die. And I'm like, "Ah, that's pretty cool." So things like that can be done. And I was like, I didn't know I could do that. So Guy, what do you got for like the AI? What do you guys do over there at uh at Team Coin Bureau?
Well, in the interests of full disclosure, Rob and Ben, I should uh I should say that the real Guy has actually been sipping Old Fashioneds at a beach club here in Dubai uh for the last three hours. So, um, yeah, we you know, we use AI a little bit. Um, no, it's um uh I yeah, I echo what Ben says. Um, especially yeah, that that that thing of being able to identify like I I'm really into doing that with plants. So, I'll take a picture of a plant and be like, "What you know what what what on earth is this and how do I how do I stop it from dying?" Um, in terms of what we in terms of using it here at, you know, for here at Coin Bureau I guess, yeah, we also use it a bit with sort of thumbnails, um, thumbnail design, although still we we've got a really amazing chap um on the team who who specializes in that and he still, you know, he still is way way better at AI than that. So, um, but he definitely gets some help from AI. Me personally, I really like, um, Perplexity. I, in fact, I now use Perplexity instead of Google. So, I don't I just don't Google things anymore. If I have a question, I'll type it into Perplexity and usually get a a very satisfactory answer with uh with sources and everything. So, I'm a big fan of that, and that's that's made a that's made a big difference. Um, but do you know I think like yeah, there's so many there's so many ways that it just seems to be knocking the knocking some of the more tedious edges off things and streamlining things. And I I think that's a really, you know, that that's progress. That's really positive. Um, the more I the more I use it and the more I think about it, the more I feel that this is something that I want to use in at work. I want to use it in, you know, an office environment, say, and then when I come home to my regular life, I don't want it anywhere near me. I like, do you I'm starting to really get more appreciation for physical real-world things like, you know, books and plants and, you know, do you know what I mean? It's sort of like I I I know I can see how amazing it's going to be, but I I'm also quite not necessarily fearful, but wary of it. And actually, whilst whilst I'm on that topic, let me just share something that I found um uh just recently. Um, which I think is is pretty damn scary. Can you can you see that on the screen? I'm gonna add it right now. Let me remove some things. Um because this article is this article is from a few weeks ago. I bring the headline: AI systems resort to blackmail if told uh told it would be removed. Um so this is Claude, but apparently um uh they spoke to someone at Anthropic. Uh so apparently this um this Claude was uh under test um situated under test conditions um you know because they're talking about you how what would happen if it was unplugged and it was uh yeah it was resorting to to blackmailing people um with supposedly supposedly by going through emails and…
Finding evidence of an affair that one of these developers had had. Um, so like whilst this stuff is is really really cool and um, you know, it is going to revolutionize everything, at the same time it's like it's scary as hell. Like it is, we are we are on the brink of no longer being the most intelligent entities, as in we humanity, not us three—well, maybe Ben—but um, on the brink of no longer being the most intelligent entities on this planet. Um, and that that's scary because what will this more intelligent entity eventually decide to do with us, you know, with us meat bags?
Yeah. So, I I kind of I I think it's amazing. I kind of really welcome a lot of what it's able to do. I just feel that at some point it's like, are we going to have to are we going to have to say, well, this is probably as far as we want to take this, and even if we do, will we be able to? Because, you know, by that point it may have figured out a way not to not to let us unplug it. So yeah, just make sure you just make sure you keep saying please. It might remember.
Yeah. Like, hey yeah, don't put that one or don't kill that one. He he said please and thank you. He's a good person. Yeah. So So yeah, excellent responses. I mean, AI is the future. We know it is. It's scary, but it is what it is.
I I will just say there is a couple of things. First of all, I don't know if everybody has seen this this uh this great video. Hold on. Let me make sure you can I want you to hear what this is because it was pretty good. Rob and I Rob and I had too much fun in Las Vegas. We had a good time. It's that that much is clear.
Yeah. Hey everyone, thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. I'm coming at you from Las Vegas where we're going to be at the Bitcoin conference. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance, that is now at 64%, and altcoins just had a new low in terms of weekly closes against Bitcoin, and I do think we likely will see that trend. My altcoins, not your altcoins.
Yeah. So, we're not talking altcoins, but I do think Bitcoin dominance will likely trend higher. Thank you guys for tuning in, and I'll see you next.
Yeah. So that would be uh that would be Ben's Ben's barely did. But I would like to to say like we're talking about AI and things like that. Just be aware that with the good that we just talked about comes you are lucky among the random people I decided to reach out to today to know how trading has been and to also know if you have found my content useful so far. But first I would like to know your name and where you are from. Hello there.
If you don't know what that is, that is an AI generated Ben, and it looks reasonably No, it looks like crap, but it but it doesn't matter because it's going to get better. It's going to get smoother, and people are going to get scammed out. This was sent to me. I know Ben knows about this already, but everything that you guys uh are going to be subjected to, everything's a scam. You can't even you can't even trust us. Maybe we're all three AI generated type of uh of characters, and we're telling you the wrong information. So, you have to do your own research. But if you if you feel that everything is a scam, I think you're going to do a heck of a lot better. And I will say if you want to, you know, uh make your life a little easier, there's something that you can do. First of all, any website or any DM or any email, you know, you can stick that. Hold on. Why is this not coming up? Oh, let me remove this. That very scary AI Ben.
Yeah. I mean, you always have to remember like, you know, we won't be reaching out individually to people asking for stuff. Just a good reminder to to new people, you know, assume that all that stuff is is a scam.
Yeah, exactly. But what you can do is you can actually you can use AI against itself, and like I uploaded this video to Chad GBT and I said, "Hey, is this fake?" And it said, "Yeah, this is fake." You can do that for any website that you get. Say, "Is this fake?" "Yeah, it's fake." And I I I guarantee you 99% of what you guys are going to get, it's going to be a scam. So if you use the AI for itself against itself, you're going to be a heck of a lot easier. And that's what I'm using AI right now for. And then also to, you know, save baby birds and stuff like that. Anyhow, that's it for today, everybody. So a lot of information to uh to put away, but I say thanks for uh for both these gentlemen for coming in. Now we'll get a little Q&A, go about five minutes or so, and then we'll get out of here.
So the first actually I actually asked this question uh on Twitter yesterday or X, and here's a couple questions for us. First of all, the big question which everybody wants to know: have we topped? Anybody want to take this one? Have we topped for this cycle, or do you think we got a little bit more room to run, and why?
I would say uh I I don't think we've topped certainly again. Well, you got to be careful what you're what you're discussing here, haven't you? because there's there's a big difference between Bitcoin topping and and alts topping. I don't think Bitcoin has topped. I think even if we are in a sort of euphoria stage with, you know, treasury Bitcoin treasury strategies coming out coming out the woodwork and Michael Sailor just buying more and more etc etc. I still think um, you know, I still think there's a lot of room to run. And one interesting thing to watch out for, just to go back to what we were talking about at the very top of the stream, the debt ceiling. Um, Ben, I don't know if um if your wonderful website has uh has a graph of this, but um what's interesting is that Bitcoin quite often tends to rally around US government debt milestones. Um, so the part in 2017, the 20 trillion milestone was passed. Bitcoin rallied. In early 2022, 30 trillion, and Bitcoin rallied again. Um, and just as a reminder, 40 trillion is not all that far away. Um, so I wonder whether we might see I wonder whether we might top around then. That's that's pure that's pure speculation on speculation. But um, yeah, I I would say I think we probably have a bit more room room to run for Bitcoin. Um, but always manage your risk appropriately.
Exactly. Ben, same thing. I think um I think we're probably just kind of seeing the same thing that happened the last two years where uh Bitcoin, you know, it gets a rally in May some, you know, sort of the May June time frame, then cools off for the third quarter, and then we pick back up again later on this year. I could I could kind of see something like that play out for the third year in a row. We'll see. But that's certainly what I'm thinking. So, I mean, you know, it we could always find a local top soon uh and then get a pullback into Q3 and then maybe go back up again uh later this year.
Got it. Yeah, I can see that. I hope that. That's for definitely sure. Um, how about this one? What changes do you foresee in the top 12 market cap coins? Anything going to be fall out of favor, or you think it's going to stay the same?
I've always said that, you know, if you want to look into something to get into stable coins and the rails that they're built on and then of course how much is actually as far as like TVL into those stable coins. So like I know with like uh with USDT uh Tron is is a big winner I think at over 75 75 billion uh into uh Tether, and then for USDC it's mostly Ethereum layer twos and then a little bit Tron. So anyhow, what do you guys think about top 12? Anything that's going to surprise I'm just I'm just looking at the top 12 now. I mean, I see it I see it number 12. It kind of it depending on who you if you I'm looking at Coin Gecko rather than Coin Market Cap. I mean, I'm seeing number 12 is wrapped Bitcoin. Um, followed not uh followed not far behind by Hyperlquid. Hyperlid I think will probably become a top 10 asset by market cap. Wrapped Bitcoin I think you know Coinbase has its own version of wrapped Bitcoin. I think there are other um versions coming. So I can see WBTC maybe slipping uh a little bit. Um, in terms of what might drop out, I mean it's hard to it's it's hard to say really. I I I guess maybe the most vulnerable are, you know, the likes of of Salana, uh Tron, and Cardano just because I think stable coins are just probably just going to keep on growing. Dogecoin perhaps. I mean, you know, if people kind of fall if if people fall out of love with that a bit. Um, but um and you know, you know, I say the likes of Salana and Cardano and Tron just because, you know, they may be supplanted by other um you know, other layer ones, which is obviously one of the most competitive spaces there. Same for same for BNB. But yeah, stable coins are definitely definitely the ones with um the strongest. I would say, you know, outside of the top 12, probably my my bets to crack into that would be Hyperlid and and maybe uh Suie as well.
Yeah. And then Ben, I'm just going to kind of brush over that question on the top 12, but uh real quick, where can I watch Ben's presentation at the Bitcoin conference?
That's actually a good question. I don't know. Can you watch that anywhere? I don't know. If you guys find it, let me know. Yeah, because I was looking for it. I and like for all the different uh talks I mean for on the main stage Nakamoto stage you could find all those but I couldn't find Ben. So if anybody has that link someone someone uh I got an email from someone that that moderated mine saying it might it might take a while for that stuff to come out like it could be a few weeks few months. I don't know. I think eventually it will be available but I don't know when I don't know where. And by the way, as far as the top 12, as you're talking about, um, all right, I I think the only thing that we can say for sure will still be there as Bitcoin in the top 12. Um, I I think that given enough time, you you have to you have to be aware that anything and everything can elect at some point to leave the top 12 because again, if you go to if you go to Coin Market Cap historical and just look at 2013, 2017, 2021, and now it's 2025, a lot of coins change. There's a few that have been up there. Uh, Ethereum has been up there for a while. XRP has been up there for a while. Um, but a lot of them a lot of them do change, and you should expect uh them to change because we'll always be
Yeah, I mean there you have it. Like look at like Namecoin, Piercoin, Feathercoin. I mean, what the hell is that, you know? Uh if you look at I remember I I I bring this up a lot in in uh in 2013 there was at one point BBQcoin was like number 11, you know, BBQcoin. Um, but you have all this stuff and and I think people think like today is different like today or you know it's different today than it was back then. But there all these meme coins existed back then too. The only thing we changed was the tickers the names of them. Megacoin. Megacoin. That's a good one. I mean look at that name like Namecoin. Like they couldn't even come up with a name so they just named it Namecoin. No, no. This one Ben though. This one. Mooncoin. Like, but I mean saying like like the asset class has been doing this exact same thing. Uh, go I think go to like um maybe like October 2013 or something. But yeah, like um we've been doing the same thing over and over, and every single time people think their meme coin is going to stay forever, and then they don't, right? They don't. Um and Litecoin, I mean Litecoin used to be number three and look at where it is now. Like it's it's it's fallen down a lot. Um, yeah, but a lot of these a lot of these just don't, you know, they never had a few. There's Oh, look. Number 24. Go back to you didn't see it. It was number 24. Hold on. I mean, you have to hand it to like it survived. every everything else like all of those other ones are are gone apart from point like so so when you think about it today I'm not I'm not saying that all of them in the top 12 are going to be gone but like a lot of the coins just kind of go to the wayside I mean I still remember in 2013 these other coins and people are buying them and and you know shilling them I remember like worldcoin um or was it worldcoin or something else I I don't remember uh but there was a lot of there was a lot of coins back then yeah made safe coin a lot of coins back then where people were like you know gambling on and like they all basically just went to zero.
Yeah. Well, not I mean not your altcoins.
Yeah, but I'm not talking about your alt run.
Yeah, exactly. Let's Yeah, preface that. Uh oh man, that was depressing. But that was uh that was a trip down memory lane, and I remember those days and everything was going to go up. So remember everybody, nobody ever went broke taking profits, and maybe those altcoins that you think are going to be awesome because community and it's going to be awesome and to the moon that's not going to work out. So anyhow, good good reminder. I want to give a shout out to uh to to Nick's hammer because we have like we have Ben's chair. I think we have Rob's pool now. We have Nick's hammer. I'm just waiting for like I don't know guy's perfect hairline or something. If if we get something like that, that'd be great. But Nick Hammer, congratulations. You are another one in the in the uh naming category. Very nice. Uh let's see. I think by the way, altcoins alcoins did put in a new low against Bitcoin just a few days ago in case anyone wanted to be reminded of that. Burn that hurts. I mean, for some
Let's see. Uh I you know what? Let's just This is perfect. Let's just leave it like this. Those coins weren't as den as what we have now. I think that's a that's a perfect way to end this because as a reminder that we really really did some bad things with those with those meme coins, and I think it's going to take a while to recover, but we'll see how it goes. Anyhow, that's it for today guys. It's it's it's uh it's a time to get out of here. Enjoy the day. Thank you guy Ben of course not subscriber to them. Links are in the description for everything and we will see you guys in the next week. I will be gone next week. I will be in France. So, if you're want to wrench attack me, I'll be at the Eiffel Tower, but I'll be gone the next uh entire week. So, we'll see what happens with NFA Live. Thanks everybody, and uh we will see you on the next one. Adios.