Transcription
Good morning, everybody. Let's get this up. Let's get you going. Let's get the screen up. Let's see what these numbers are. Right. This is going to be exciting. Hold on. Give me a fancy opening. Where's the fancy opening? Oops. Sorry, guys. All right, let's get Oh, it went on time and everything. Wait, we're not binding. There you go.
Oh, you mean you're moving higher? What a shock. I'm shocked by that. 2 versus .3. 42 versus 42. Uh, CPI. .5 versus .5. 29 versus 29. So you came in line. Okay. What's the market do on that? It's going higher. I'm shocked. Absolutely shocked. Shocked, I tell you. Wow. Who knew? Huh? Where's our bonding? You could see my You could see me making faces.
So, um, numbers are actually a little bit better than people expected. Everybody was waiting for Armageddon, and you clearly didn't get that. Uh, not even close to Armageddon. So, we'll go through here because I can show this. And now we just watch them all rip the market higher and then everybody wonders what they were doing and why they didn't buy the dip. Right. So, definitely something there to it. And to me, let me just make sure I'm on the right mic, too, and get this going. Let me make sure I'm on the right mic. Yep, I am. Because it's been jumping mics. So, and then we'll just flip to this real quick because I know I can show this. Sorry for the staring at me. Look at it. Um, core .02 previous was .4, consensus was .3. So Goldman was right. JP Morgan was wrong. Uh, 29, 29.5, 42, 42. So you're coming in uh lower than expected on the core CPI, which is really what you wanted to see. Um, and it's less than estimates. What did the Treasury yield do? Probably plummeted uh for a minute. Let's go take a look at US 30 yields. What did you do? Uh, you dropped and now you're popping a little bit, but you know, it's hard to see on these. Uh, ES, what are you doing? Let's go to this and go to a bar chart for a second. All right. So, there's your wick. And now we'll see what happens and we'll go from there. All right. Good. So, it's pretty easy to see what your, you know, what your levels are there, right? Um, and it's pretty much what we thought like, oh, okay. Okay. So, you mean you're not you're not going to fall apart? The market's not going to collapse. No, market's not going to collapse, buddy. All right. Well, you know, it is what it is. So, uh, you're probably going a lot higher, actually. Let's take a look at this. So, where'd you close? 5920. Probably not worth buying at this point. Probably just watch the open and go from there. So, but probably not worth doing yet. Not now. Oh, look at that. Shocked.
So, pretty clean, right? Off the open, down, one, two, three, inverse pattern. And here we go. So, good. Um, I went over this in last night's video. This the breadth of the market was really good. So, I'm not really surprised by this, like at all. Not even a little bit. Um, Um, and I'll just watch how this plays out. But that's pretty much what you what you would expect from these numbers. All right, let's get back to this. Oh, look. There we go. And let's flip to this. And we'll flip back. And let's go. Let's get the Let's get some. Get some. Oh boy, them internets. All right, cool. My head's still cut off. Crushing your head. Yay. More money. Shocked, I tell you. Shocked. Who knew?
All right. Um, the breadth of the market always tells you what's going to happen. If you really watch the breadth of the market, it's pretty obvious what's going to happen, right? Like, it's not really rocket science how that's going to play out usually. 205, 206. You go back to flat. Yeah. So flat's going to get people out at first. Flat's going to get people to to get out of that stuff and then they're going to reset and they're going to be the first people that are going to get out, right? Because they got out break even after being down like, you know, 30, 40, $50 this morning. So, they're definitely going to be your first like panickers. Panickers, is that what you call them? Um, and then we'll go from there. All right, cool. Let's get to it. So, good numbers. Sky's not falling. Companies are making tons of money. You know, you don't have an earnings problem. You have a delusion problem. Very, very, very different. Oh, you got a little divergence there, too. Yay.
All right. So, we can see what the market's doing there on the RSI. We know we're oversold on the RSI already. We're not going to do that for time's sake. What we're going to do is go to June and then go here and drop it like it's hot on that day. Um, and you can see that we've really broken that area. You know, I actually want to make this a little bit stronger or tighter, I guess, would be a better way to say it. So, there you go. So, I think you probably can head back to that area. Uh, what you probably really want to do is take that low and just put a VWAP on that low. And let's make sure that that's as perfect as it could be. Yep. That's your lowest bar down. I mean, you have another one right here. Uh, and that might really be what we want, right? Might as well do it perfectly. And you can already see you're flipping that. So, you know, tried, failed, tried, and then off of that you're holding. So, probably worth paying attention to. I expect massive volatility off the open. Um, and then we'll we'll see how that plays out. But I'm more interested in the volatility now. It should be a lot of fun today. Today should be a great day. Should be a lot of fun. Um, So, the sky is not falling. CPI is not as bad as we thought. And these companies are making a crap ton of money. You have a supply issue going into Friday. That's not going to change, right? All right. So, there's the ES and we can turn that into this. And there you go. That's how I see it. You should see it how it makes you comfortable, but see the VWAP from that low and now we're holding over that. So, I don't really see a problem there. I guess other people might, but whatever.
Um, let's go take a look at NQ here. You know, if you always look at the breadth of the market, it kind of gives you a real heads up. Hopefully, you got that yesterday. Let's clean this all off. Let's drop to here. Um, as far as the rhetoric in the Iran war, you know, I'll just give you my two cents on it for what it's worth. That the bowl soup's worth about two, you know, a bowl of soup. Uh, but you see your level right there as well. Um, you know, I if he tells you that things are going to escalate, they're going to deescalate. If he tells you that things are going to deescalate, they're going to escalate, right? So, if he tells you there's a peace deal, there's not a peace deal. If he tells you that uh there's no peace deal, there's a peace deal. Like, it's literally opposite day. So, if you just do that, uh, you'll do quite well. If you just watch oil, oil tells you that nothing's going on. Like, you don't have to worry about any of it. So, oil will tell you everything that you need to know there. Like everything. Um, you know, these are really your levels. I mean, if you took out that low, I'd be concerned, but right now, all the people that are short are going, "Oh crap, I got a a solid CPI number. That's not what I expected." So, you know, now they got that going for them. Good luck with that. Um, and now you're going into the next event, which is Oracle's earnings tonight. So, you're going to want to watch that, too. Uh, and then we'll see how that goes. I have to go at 9 today. So, I'm going to go through this and then I'm going to take questions. Uh, your put wall is 700. I I really don't see you closing below it today, but you know, weirder things have happened. I guess you could. Um, but your put wall 700, so you probably want to watch that area. And, uh, I do think you're going to be all over the place today. But the volatility, they're going to make fools out of a lot of people. Um, but, you know, maybe maybe you come back down here, maybe they try to shake the tree a little bit, see what else they can get out of people. Uh, you know, you'll have to see. We'll have to see how that goes. But, you know, that's kind of where my head is. What else do I think is really going on out there? It's pretty much it what I have right now.
Um, you know, this is not going to be for the week today, guys. Like I I had a lot of people I was talking to earlier today about this. Like if you're concerned, like this is not your day. Like if you're like a conservative person, this really is not going to be uh your day to get too, you know, into all this. That's the best way that I can say it. You're going to want to chill out a little bit, you know, because this is going to be pretty wild um to say the least. If we kind of look at these levels here, I think they moved us down to 720, didn't they? There. Hold up. Yeah. So, you're at 720 down here on the put wall. So, you didn't really break that. Uh, I don't think you're going to get through the 750 or anything like that, but you could you could rally now, but you know, we'll see. See what happens. I just think you're going to bonk all over the place, and I really don't see a sense in doing a lot with it. Um, like at all. So, let's just see how it plays out and we'll go from there. But, I'm going to answer questions and I'm sure there's a lot of them today. Let's go. What's up, John? Good morning, John. Oh, my head's cut off. Crushing your head. Sideways DXCM. Uh, let's run through them real quick and see what you got. What do you got for us, man? DXCM. Maybe if I lean back, that's better. Oh, look at that. Huh? Look at that. Look who's all chill leaning back. All right. Go for DXCM. Um, I don't know. I would like more volume. I would like have liked more volume. The volume's kind of tapering off, so I'm not really a fan here. I got a bunch of crap up here, for lack of a better term. I'm not I'm not feeling that. DraftKings got a little thing yesterday for all my messages from my son. All of a sudden, I get like this. Oh, your code for DraftKings is I'm like, uh, what are you doing? Freaking degenerate.
Um, I mean, I see it. I I don't know. I'm not really feeling it. I think somebody came out with an article yesterday. >> Super micro. >> Super micro. What a pig, huh? Uh, Cracker Barrel. What did they do? Change the logo again? Oh, earnings. I guess people are going back. Oh, wow. That's a big jump. That's interesting. Got a lot of people short this, right? 28% six days to cover. Right. So that's okay. Then I can squeeze today. That's a big jump, man. When you when you're supposed to lose money and you make money and that's not cutting, that's revenue. And that's leverage. Let's go see this. Yeah, UBS raised their price target this morning. GLP1 haven't affected our business. Yeah, I mean they crushed. The turnaround story is there. They asked for 17 million in tariff refunds. They already took in 5 million. So, they're getting their refunds. What's your call wall here and your put wall on this bad boy? 40. So, you might come down to 40. That's really an interesting idea. Um, what were we doing? All right, cool. Uh, Bank of America is interesting. Shark NATO. I give it time. What else do you have here? Let's go take a look at Shark NATO. Didn't they get added to something? Um, you're setting up, but I don't know. How many shark ninjas are you going to sell, dude? Like how many? I mean, is it like that much better of a vacuum cleaner? I don't know. I don't know how I feel about that. It makes me uncomfortable. I don't know why. They're definitely clearing out the sellers though, aren't they? Because you'd see like it takes such little volume now to move you. See how like see when you move like that and it's on such little volume. You know, people are like, "Oh, I need more volume." The problem with that is that it's taking less volume to move it more. Right? So, that's a good thing. I'm not feeling that, dude. I don't know why. What you got for me? Your take on the Middle East. What's up, Tim? Thank you. I'll make sure it goes to St. Jude's. Dude, you're going to fall all over yourself. Your take on the Middle East. If Iran escalates and closes the Red Sea and destroys major oil infrastructure, what happens? The AI story short term. No big deal as well.
All right. First off, you can fall all over yourself. That's the first thing. All right. Like if grasshoppers had machine guns, birds wouldn't try to eat them, right? So, well, they don't have machine guns. All right. Well, Iran didn't shut down the Red Sea. Um, Iran has a real problem on their hands because they don't have a friend anymore. Like, there's nobody over there. So, the the way to look at the world for of oil and what's going on is oil. And the only and it's the best thing we have, Tim. Like it's literally the best thing we have because if you look at oil, it will tell you what the players are doing. Are they hedging? Are they not hedging? So what I tend to do is this. So let's go take a look at April's price, right? Here's April. All right. So that's telling us where April is, right? So that's the average price of everybody that bought in April. Let's go to May. So what's happening here? All right. So the average price in May from June, what are they doing? It's still early, but what are they doing? They're dropping. So from people buying in May, they're buying a lot lower, right? So people are buying in June a lot lower than they were buying in April and May, right? So I I don't see how it doesn't roll over here. Um, are people worried about escalation? People aren't even worried about inflation, let alone escalation. I mean, markets getting smoked. So, I I don't see it that way. What happens? I don't know. What happens if Russia escalates? You know, that's more of an issue for me than Iran. Um, I think the shutdown in Iran has way more to do with other stuff, Tim. Like if you look at UAE um here like to me this has more issues like Dubai has like real issues uh you know I we have a bunch of people in the community that live there and it's very slow over there now so I think that people like tourism and things like that like they had to shut a lot of the tourism down obviously um so I think there's stuff like that like how does it affect India right I think that like all this to have very slow growth by what's going on there. But I don't think you have this massive like escalation. Um I just don't think that, you know, I I don't think it's 4D chess at this point. I just think it's like, you know, connect four maybe. I just think that he's trying to figure out how to get out of it more than anything. And and it's very clear that the US is not in charge of this situation. Um, so I don't I don't know. So what does Iran do? If Iran escalates, Israel is going to escalate. All right. And their neighbors are going to start getting passed. So it becomes a thing. It becomes a real thing. And I just don't see it. You know, the more I look at it, I just really don't I just really don't see it. Um, so Yeah, I don't see it that way.
AP, what's up, Daniels? I mean, this held up very well yesterday, didn't it? And you have pretty good buying. Uh, I I think it's interesting. I don't know that this is the one I'm most interested in, but I get it. I say it. It's hard not to say it, right? Look at it. Um, it's hard not to say it. So, I don't know. I don't know if it's the the that's the one that I want to play. I mean, I get it. Light dip value. I'm not going near these. From what I'm reading, everyone's going to get out of optics. Uh, and they're all getting in back in the copper. That's how I say it. That they need the copper. So, I I don't know. I don't know enough about it to be candid, but the these moves are vicious. And I don't see the sense like what, you know, you have to look at this stuff to an extent and say like, why am I doing this? Like, why am I taking that risk? Like, it's not worth the risk when I look at these names. They're just not. So, and that's really ugly. Whereas, you know, I can go out and buy Micron for eight times earnings. Oh, and by the way, the prices are probably going to be tenfold like for a chip in two years. So, I don't know. Maybe I'll buy that one. Um, that's just kind of where my head is, you know? I I I that's really how I see this. like that. I I I really think you have to look at this a little differently. So, um, you know, we'll see. But I'm in no hurry here. So, we'll see what we get uh today. But I I'm not a big fan of the optic names. I started to play with it through like photo and it turned into an absolute dumpster fire. And then the more I read into it, like they just need copper. They need so much more copper and that's why they started looking that way. But you know, copper might have peaked too. Say it. Look at it. And then we come here and look at it this way, right? And then you're hitting these highs and then you got this divergence. Divergences don't work. Okay, just screenshot that and send it to someone says divergences don't work.
Um, no. It's a uh energy drink. It is uh what's What is this one? It's got a good flavor to it. I think it's called like cherry something or other. I don't know. It's a First Form energy drink. They should put the the kind of thing on it. I don't know. Folds of Honor. I don't know. Whatever. It's got calories in it though. I guess that breaks my fast, doesn't it? That's not good. Where are the calories from? Looks like I don't know. I have to look at it. I have to look at that stuff. If it has calories, it breaks the fast. That's not good. What else you got? FLNC. Do I really want to play this? Um, that's not the one I would look at. I'd look at First Solar. You know, I I don't know what I trade worse, silver or silver names. Probably silver. But I I really like how this pulled back. I'm just waiting for an inside bar to get involved. Uh here, watch. So, you're right to 22 again. I'd like an inside bar. I'd like an inside bar, please. And then kind of figure out what to do with it from there. That's kind of how I see it. Uh, what do I think by end of year? I'm trying to get through the day, bro. Um, I I don't see how this thing's not up a lot next to earnings. And I don't think people fully understand that like $50 is in the bag on earnings for the year. Like, it's in the bag. Like, it's done. Like, they signed long-term agreements. So, you know, right now you're trading at 20 times earnings on guaranteed earnings. And now everyone's fighting for what else is out there. So, probably, you know, I it probably doubles again, um, is what I think. But what do I know? You know, I'd rather it get crushed today and, uh, sell off. I bought some yesterday. I haven't done anything with it. U, I'm down on what I bought yesterday and I bought more when it dipped. Um, but I'm not doing anything with I'm just going to sit with it. I don't really see the sense in going goofy here. Hopefully, the market gets smoked off the open. The fastest is Bloomberg. Um, but it's so spread out so easily now. Um, I like that trading economics. I think they get it out pretty fast. And then Financial Juice, I have a a squawk on them. They do a good job, too. So, I don't know. Who knows what he's doing? I'm on the right screen, dude. Everyone calm down. Jesus, you guys get so aggressive. SanDisk. Uh, I I think you're in a trading range for now. I mean, I think it's pretty clear that this bar established that. I like the close. I like that you can't get below this 22. So, I'd like to see it sell down today. I don't know how low these things are going to get to, but I'd like if they sold down more thousand. It's a call wall. What's up, Tex? Still bad number. There he is. Mr. Happy Puss. Yeah, I think people are just looking at it saying to themselves like, I might as well put money to work in this. I mean, New York's New York's dead, right? New York's so dead. Look how dead New York is. Look at Office Space New York. It's so dead. It's just destructive. It's disgusting how dead it is. Like just makes me laugh. Um, you know, it's it's breaking out. Uh, you know, New York office space is breaking out. That usually does not happen in a recession, guys. It's usually the exact opposite of that. Uh, I buy this one and I like just sitting with it. Um, which seems to annoy people, but I I like it. Um, because I can't replicate what they have. But yeah, I mean New York real estate office space is just breaking out, but nobody wants to go there because the mayor is a communist. Okay, so uh but I mean that's perfect like cup handle breakout. So uh it's pretty clear to me what's going on that office space is just on fire uh in New York City. So you know it's not again it's not rocket science. I think these things are even trading still under book value, aren't they? Let's go take a look. I love when we can do stuff together. Uh, no, you were 25. What's SLG? 25's book value. You were You were under book value in March. I don't know why the hell I didn't buy it then. Uh, book value SLG is 46. Where are you 51? No. You can see it here. 35. I mean, every single time this happens, dude, it's like such a layup. Every time this thing gets under, just sit with it. We bought it back here like in the 20s. Killed it with this thing. Um I don't know. I I mean that's the they're the ones I would look at. I you know you you go and take a look at some things. There's a lot of buying and there's a lot of movement. Oh, I got started again. Yay. What's up, time best? Sure. Let's do it. Um you start looking at things, dude. Like you got Give me a second. All right. All right. What am I doing? AMD, let's get to it. Thanks, Dest. I'll make sure it goes to St. Jude's. Let's go. Let's Let's go here. All right. Hold on. I have the attention span of a freaking squirrel. All right. You know, it says that your call wall is 500 and your put wall is there at 360, but I think there's other levels. So, I one there's a couple things that I would say about it. You opened and then like look where your close is. And there's more to it than that. So, like if I go to if I go here, you'll see it cleaner. So, there's your close, right? 465. Here's your close 475, right? Here's your close 490. You're closing all in the same area. So, like if you were just looking at the closes, you're closing all in the same area. Opens in the same area, highs the same area, opens in the same area, closes are in the same area. So, I don't think you have a lot to really concern yourself. I mean, if you want to get like super super technical about what's going on there, you can just look at the volume profile from that time on, right? But if I go look through the option book real quick, like the 480 level, you have a bunch of puts sold there, like a bunch by the option market makers. And they also have a bunch of calls there. I I don't see how you're breaking 450 and closing under 450. So, anything at 450 today, super interesting. if it sells down to 450. I'm just looking at the option books and um and just telling you like what I think and options for AMD make a big difference. Like options impact on AMD are huge. Um and 480. So I think you're between 450 and 480. What you could do is this. And this might make a lot more sense to you because you're clearly not breaking that. But if I took this and just dropped the volume profile from there and then open it up on a five just so we can kind of get into the nitty-gritty like look at that. Look at it. So what's it doing like the majority of time right from those days here? We have to go back to that so that I mark off the day too so that let's go back to this so that you know when we marked it off because it'll go it just goes straight across and annoys me. So let's just drop this here to so that we can see it and we'll go back to the five. And so we'll come over from that point. All right. So from that point on, right, that's what we marked off. I mean, the majority of your time is spent in that area. Now, you're under that this morning. So I I would think you get back in there, but I don't know, man. I I don't know that you're staying under 450. You got a lot going on there. So if you stayed under 450 for a long period of time, that might concern me, but overall, I think you're fine. What else you guys got? Anything here? Anything going on? That's it. All right, I gotta jump, guys. Trade to win. Make good choices. See you.