Transcription
Yeah, we just had the worst week since 2023, and the relief rally I talked about on Thursday to go back up a Tesla 200 is now going to happen. What could possibly cause a rally?
For one, peace with Ukraine and Russia. How about good tariff news? How about the EU coming to the negotiating table? How about that, huh? Maybe a deal reached with some of these countries, like maybe Canada or Mexico. How about that?
About the Fed next week, we're going to get the Fed. How about the Fed announcing the end of quantitative tightening? The Fed raising—we're going to get the projections. How about the Fed raising their target level for the amount of cuts that they're penciling in? Remember, they had downsized it from four to two. What if they raise it back to three or four or something? Market would love that. Could see that, and the S&P is going to move to new highs. The S&P, I believe, is going to move 15% to 20% higher from our low that we just reached. Uh, yesterday I believe is the bottom. You're going to get this massive rally. Nobody believes that's possible now. Everybody's so negative. Just telling you a few things that can turn things around.
What about tax cuts? Market could be celebrating that and ignore the tariffs. We rode with tariffs in 2018, but we still rallied, and we still ended up rallying to new highs. We'll probably do it faster this time because, uh, the blowoff top usually is the most powerful; the final phase of it is usually the most powerful. I can go on and on. There are different things that could happen that can quickly change sentiment, which is extremely negative. The herd is very, very bearish, so it's time to be bullish when the herd is bearish. Again, we're likely processing, and you got a good shot that it's done. Say, PRCT has been predicting a bouncer bottom. Uh, I think this last call was likely calling for a bottom. The Dow was up 1.66%, or 675 points. The S&P was up 2.13%, up 117 points. NASDAQ up 2 point, or 2.61%, over 450 points. The Russell was up over 2 and a half% as well. VIX dropped sharply, 11.71%, back down below 22 at 21.77. Uh, the VIX is predicting in the next two trading sessions, either Monday or Tuesday, that the S&P will have a down day, 85% chance that will happen, 15% chance it won't, but the bottom is likely in, and we're likely rallying off of those lows back up to the 200 period where, again, eventually we're going to clear that level.
I told you, told you. Bitcoin put in a higher low that the S&P would start to rally, and Bitcoin's now put in a higher low, and the market's likely going to follow Bitcoin higher. Uh, Bitcoin's got to be able to clear that 200 period; it's attempting to do it, but there's more, more work to be done, and then we'll see if the market can follow. I expect the rally to continue. May get a down day, but we may go up much, much higher before that down day happens. If the VIX is correct, we may go surge on Monday and then get a down day on Tuesday, if it is correct.
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A video all the way through. I have talked about my Elliott wave count. In a couple of days, my account got invalidated. I've been looking at the other, uh, options and, and, and, uh, calculating everything out, possibilities, and I think I've got it narrowed down to two counts. I'll show you those counts, talking about my target levels. I'll be talking about how we're about to go up right now, in my opinion. We're going to go up about 15 to 20%; I think it's more like 17 to 20%, and you're going to have an amazing, spectacular rally to finish the final, the final phase of the blowoff top, suck everybody in, and all the bearish, bearishness right now, the bearish, negative sentiment is going to quickly turn back to bullish. You're going to quickly move from extreme, uh, fear back to greed. Talking about all this, it's going to happen pretty quick. I do think you got a good shot at a bottom if Bitcoin can clear the 200; it's trying to do that right now. Some people will follow it back to get tested 200 and eventually get back above it. Need to watch the video all the way through. Pretty amazing things to share with you today, sharing with you my Elliott wave count in this video. Count invalidated. I'll be sharing with you what I think is going on. Again, I told you back on February 19th that we had a failed breakout and again that I expected a sell-off. Talked about the support levels. I told you if this low ended up being taken out at the January low, we are headed back to the 200 period. We've gone well beyond that, lower than I thought we would go, right about the top, right about the sell-up, but we've gone lower than I've thought. I told you I thought a bottom is going to develop around this area, but I saw evidence of that with Bitcoin. That evidence is now in with Bitcoin, and so again I'm looking for the S&P to start following Bitcoin. We're moving up off of extremes. Uh, we formed a little tiny bullish divergence right there, uh, on the S&P 500. We, I showed you the 2000 top, I showed you the 2001 top. Humor me, follow along, and you're going to see something pretty remarkable. So, oh, I've seen this chart already, okay, because I need to explain it. Okay, look at what's going on here. Look at the topping process. Okay, we had a peak right here. We dropped 10, almost 10 and a half percent, 10.40%. What did we just drop? 10 and a half percent. I told you we could drop 10 to 12%, and then we could see a breathtaking rise. Look, we bottomed out right here on February 28th, and by less than a month later, uh, by, by March 24th, we were at new all-time highs and sharply above this level. This was, um, about a 177% rise in 3 weeks, 3 and a half weeks to create that top. And again, I talked about the divergences that form with Pring parameter. We're about right here where the bottom's forming, and you're going to get this breathtaking rise back above the 200 period, then back to test the 50, then the pullback to test the 200, and then we got above the 50, and we challenged those highs and took them out. Okay, this is what's about to see happen. That's why I'm saying we could get, we're going to see right now 15 to 20%. It may be more than 20% because this is the most powerful bull market in history. You're going to go 15% higher from where are we bottoming out this week. Bitcoin's going to go 75 to 85% higher, and I think it's going to happen within a few weeks to up to a couple of months if it t, if we take our time doing it. But here we did it in, in, in less than a month. Had another big drive, drop 13.80% in 3 weeks, and then you had a rebound back up to Tesla high, and it was an overall topping process. I don't know that we do that again, but then the bottom fell out of the market, then the Fed panicked over here, and you had your recession come in, and it was an overall topping process, but the top was back over here in March. Dip came back in, okay, before that, and that's what you're going to see happen right now. And again, oh, it's over, it's over. The Fed has our back. Oh, the Fed's going to cut rates, and everything's going to be great. And if the Fed ends quantitative tightening either this meeting or next one, but I think they can announce at this meeting, it's going to go, oh, the Fed's going to come back and do quantitative easing again. They're ending quantitative tightening. That's the me, the mentality of, of traders, markets addicted to QE. Oh, it's going to be the Fed has our back; they're going to bring back QE; they're stopping quantitative tightening; they're going to lower the amount of cut, and everything's going to be okay, and you're going to get this final blowoff top. And maybe if we get some good tariff news, if we start rallying on hopes of the, you know, we're going to get these tax cuts, and maybe all that's going to work, work its way into the market. The sentiment is going to change very quickly. You don't top on negative sentiment. What we just did, just telling you this is about where we are. You're going to see something happen now. Maybe this goes on a couple of months; maybe it takes a little bit longer than a month right here, less than a month; maybe it goes on until, you know, uh, uh, you know, that, that could take us to the end of April where we get the bad GDP, and then maybe the market freaks out at that point, or maybe this drags on into May, June, July. It could go on a few months, but you're going to see it happen; you're going to see it happen. The market will peak; it will rise back up. They're going to rally 15, more like 17, like this move right here; it was 177% higher, and we could go 20% because that's where the trend line is coming in in the weekly time frame. I get the Fed, the market dropping, the 20% dropping, the Fed will panic. It's going to happen, but it's this is not it; this is corrective; this is not the crash I've been warning you about. If we have something like this happen, and take a look over here, look at, look at, look at the 2007 top. Same thing, you had a 12% drop right here, and you had the, the, uh, inverting of this, the yield curve a second time, warning you, hey, the recession's getting close, but look at the breathtaking rise. We had this was over about 9 weeks, and it was 15% higher. The other move was 177% higher. My guess is it's going to be higher than 177%; I think we're going to go up 20% because the bull market we've had is much more powerful, and it's over exaggerated, so I think we're going to go back up to the channel line. But look at this again, you drop below the 200, you got back above it. This is what I think you're going to see happen right now, going in the next week. You're going to get back above that 200 period, then you're going to pull back or whatever, maybe dance around it. We did the same thing in 2001, then you got above the 50, same thing, it's a 2007 top, and then you went, and these highs were pointing to the next high. Now, again, we have some highs that we got recently there in February and January. I think that these highs, like right here, right here, this high was slightly lower, this high, uh, again here in 2000, I think these highs were pointing to the next high here. I think you're going to get something like that, a steep slope, and I think you'll get that completion of the negative divergence with Pring parameter. I think we have more of a similar situation to this, the 2000 top. If I do an overlay, let me show you that now. Here I have, uh, have an overlay of, in blue, I have the 2000 top, which we just looked at, in with the, the bars behind it. Let me, let me change the bars here to black, uh, the bars, uh, from to black with a line rather than bars so you can see a little bit better. I have the blue is the 2000, whoops, I marked that 2001, 2000, 2000 overlay, and, uh, again, very, very interesting. Again, uh, the sell-off, this is the August low and the September low in black right here for the S&P, our current, uh, price action there in, in 2024, very similar to what we saw, and then we had a run up, and then we had some more volatility, and they both had it, then, uh, again, we had these sell-offs, and this is right here, this is right here where you had this 10% drop on the SMP just before the final run up. But let me make it a little bigger here so you can just see it. Uh, again, you had the decline we had right here. We just dropped 10, a 12%. The decline over here was, uh, which again kind of very similar here. We turned down; we went to a new high, and then we had this big drop over the last 3 and a half weeks, and, uh, again, over here we had volatility; we pushed back up; we got a lower high, sold off, rallied back up, and sold off. So very kind of similar, perfect. But again, that I'm trying to make is that we had this 10% drop, and here we've now had a 10% drop, uh, but we had a 10%, 10.40% drop, uh, in 2001, and then we had this run up in 2007, it was 12%, so again looking for a bottom under the 200, both of those peaks, and then we rallied up to new highs. Are you picking up what I'm throwing down? We're going to rally up to new highs here. We did it in less than a month, uh, now here I, I have the channel line up here, and this is where I think we're going now. Here we rallied 177%. Uh, we rallied 177%. If we move out of the overlay, I'm just overlaying it, but if you look at it, you can see we've, we've dropped, uh, we rallied up 177%. I had that on the other chart. S&P is going to rally up 17 to 20%, and I think that's going to take us up to this trend line right here, and I think these, uh, highs over here are pointing to the next high, just as we saw, uh, in 2001, those highs, not the recent high right here on the S&P in February and January, but the December and the November high up there, uh, which takes us back to the, the, um, uh, July peak. I think that's pointing up to the next high, as I've been talking about. And again, so again, I think you're going to see something like this where you get this breathtaking rise back up where we rallied up, up in less than a month. We rallied up 17%, and, and, and, U, over 15% in 2007. I think we'll get a bigger move than that because this is the longest bull market in history, and it's been exaggerated moves with the Fed's QE and, and, U, AI, and all these other things. Be surprised to see a 15 to 20% move, and maybe we fall short of that trend line. We could, this is what I, I think is going to happen. Let me show you, um, let me show you the S&P 500 now. Again, I think we're going to claw our way back. You got a good shot if Bitcoin has bottomed that the S&P is going to bottom right after, which we just had happened, boatload of bullish signals on Bitcoin. Momentum is, if it shifts next, it will likely confirm a bottom and to see the trending signals turn back to bullish for Bitcoin. But if we bottomed on the S&P at 10 and a half percent, or get one more push down and go 12% like we did in 200, uh, 7, again, I think we're going to claw our way back now. Look at this again on the 2001 top, uh, I don't think these peaks right here are pointing to the next top. I, I talked about that being a possibility, but I told you we still may go up to my upper channel line and, and blow past this area, and I think it's these highs are pointing to the next high. And if you get that, well, from right here, from our low from yesterday, I've marked it right here, see this blue right here, that's a 20% move higher. If we come up into this area, and again, I think that that is very, very possible, maybe a little bit higher than 20%, maybe a little bit lower, but I think you're going to go up 15 to 20%. I think you're going to get a 15% to 20% rally. If we fall short of by trend line, well, maybe it's only 15 to 177%. You know, in 2007 we rallied up just over 15, under 16% there, and we rallied 2000, uh, uh, that was 2007, 2000, we rallied up 17%. I think we can go up 20%. I think these highs right here are pointing to the next high, and I think you've got three, four, and then you're going to get this five leg push high, and it could happen very quickly. You know, in 2000 it was less than a month; in 2007 it was over nine weeks; it's under two and a half months. If we rally into, we could rally up into the April, uh, GDP data released on April 30th. We could rally over the next 6 and a half weeks, okay, uh, and, and top out. We could rally beyond that, goes into May, June, July, whatever, you know, a couple of months, and we see something more like 2007, but I think you're going to get this breathtaking rise back up. The S&P daily chart now, let me show you my Elliott wave count. Now, previous Elliott wave count got invalidated, but before I do, just let me show you the yield curve is going back into the positive territory, uh, closing the week out back in positive territory. I think we're headed back up to this channel line. You got a bottoming tail on the S&P; you got a bottoming tail on the NASDAQ. I think we bottomed. I told you we could end the week strong, which we did, getting a bottoming tail, getting bullish hammer candlesticks at this inverting of the yield curve again, and now we're uninverted. In 2007 and you went up to new highs. I've talked about this again. You've had the inverting of the yield curve; you had the uninverting of the yield curve there in May of 2007, then in July you got the inverting again, and then it uninverted. We went a little bit lower, and as we're doing that, uh, again, you bottomed out as that uninverting took place, which we just now had, and then you went up, and you made a new high, and then the bottom began to fall out of the stock market. Then you got your 20% crash. Again, this is not the crash; this is this is a corrective move; this is not the 20% crash to start the bear market. I'm telling you we're going to go make new highs. People are going to get sucked into this, going, oh, oh, it's, it's, it's over, it's over, and then we're going to rally back up, and they're going to, oh, what happened, and they're going to chase it, and they're, you're going to see the FOMO, FOMOing in, fear of missing out when we get to the top. They're going to go, it's not a top, the Fed has our back, everything's okay, everything's going to be great, and then, then the big rug pull's going to happen. Had a 12% drop, and nine weeks later you went and you made new highs. I think we're going to have, what happened in 2000 and go well beyond this. Here we went a little bit higher in 2000; we went way beyond that previous peak, which that's why I think you're going to get a 20% rally, and then I think you're going to get a 20% drop to kick off the bear market. It's a 2020 topping process, the 20% blowoff top, and then the 20% crash to kick off the bear market. It's a 2020 topping process. Live it, love it, learn it. My Elliott wave count was invalidated. It's one of two things. We've either already topped, and you've got this wave four, intermediate wave four, intermediate wave five is done, and you've had this five leg push higher, okay, and it's done, and now we're going to rally back up and back test and get a lower high, and then the bottom's going to fall out of the stock market. I don't think so. I think we're going to go to new highs because you have these dramatic drops right before the top, and usually it's fairly rapid. This was, this was, uh, this drop here followed by this rally back up, this took a long time, uh, you're going to rally up to this upper channel line, so this is the count if we've topped, this is it, that you've now completed the five intermediate waves, and we're now starting the move down. My alternative count, I think it's less likely because we, we topped here on bearish sentiment, that is highly unlikely to be the final phase of the top. My bullish Elliott wave count. Now, again, uh, my other account was invalidated, so I've been working hard trying to examine the price action and come up with the best counts that I can. That was a bearish count; this is my bullish count. This is what I think is more likely. I think you're forming this new channel; you broke down from a rising wedge. I think we're going to go back up, and everybody's going to go, it's a back test, it's a back test, a Fibonacci retracement, and then I think you're going to pull back at a higher low, and I think you're going to bust on higher. That's what we did; we rallied up to the 50 period moving average, paused in 200, 2000 and 2007, pulled back, and then we blew on past it, and that's what I think you're going to see happen here in that daily time frame. Think that's still going to reach this level. Again, we've gone sideways, and now we're going lower, but he's freaking out. But again, we had one over here in the, uh, we had a, a sell-off like this around 10% in the summer of 2024. We had one in, uh, 2023. I think you're going to see the market recover, and, and then the people telling us we're going to crash right now, bear, that's very bearish, then they're going to be, it's going to start getting to the point of fear of missing out, and they're going to try to rise it higher. The Fed's going to have her back, and all the rest of it. The bears are going to go, oh, we're all going to die, telling us a rally is not even going to happen. The rally we had today on Friday, they're telling us wasn't going to happen, social media. We're going to, we're going to off a cliff. I don't think so. I think you're bouncing around these 50-day moving averages; that's the green line you see right here, and I think you're going to rally back on up and get a new high. Then I think you're going to get it; I think you're going to rally up 20%, up to this level. Now, maybe you fall short of it; maybe you're shy of this level. NASDAQ and S&P are likely going to try to bounce around these 50-day moving averages. The RSI back in positive territory, then the divergence is likely going to form another reference point of a divergence, which is what I think is going to happen. Pring parameter suggests that's going to be the case in the daily time frame. Adjusted my account rather than being nearly done. Again, we buy a little bit more time, but it could be a very short, again, the market can rally, a powerful rally, I should say, uh, in a very, very short amount of time. Again, could it be in the next six to seven weeks? Could it be in the next 2 and a half, you know, months? It was nine weeks, and then it, you know, was in, it's on a month. I don't know. I mean, you know, do we see a rally into April, and then the, the tariffs get postponed or something, April 2nd, and the market celebrates that, and they get postponed into May or to the summer or something? Catalyst may be, something's going to happen to give us a rally; that's what the signals are suggesting now. My new count, again, I don't trade Elliott wave; I use it to try to determine where price might go, and counts get validated or invalidated. That I had, it was invalidated. Couple counts, they got invalidated. So this, this is the, the other option along with that bearish count. Either we've topped, or we're in this immediate intermediate wave four, and we're about to get intermediate wave five. Now, I've changed this in that I have the intermediate wave one here, wave two, and this whole thing is an extended wave three. I think that that is correct, and then I think we have an, a, b, and a c right here for intermediate wave four, and that's why I think we had this big sell-off like we did. We had the volatility over here with intermediate wave two, with minor wave two and, and minor wave four here, and wave three you had a lot of volatility. So I think is what we have right now is intermediate wave four completing this ABC move. I think you're going to get your intermediate wave five going to unfold in five minor waves like we had with wave three right here. It's likely going to take us up here. Now, that it, that will complete the five met waves will complete intermediate wave five, that will complete primary wave five, which primary wave four was here. This completes five, five, uh, primary wave five, which completes the cycle top. So again, uh, either it's done with the truncated fifth here, other count where truncated is where there are two equal peaks, one's just slightly higher than the other. Remember, we got that false breakout, or we haven't topped yet, and this is the wave four, the ABC, and now we're going to get five like over here with wave one, we got a, a, b, and then c. Here we have a, b, and c. So again, it's likely that that is the case. I believe that we're going to new highs. I believe we're going to go 15 to 20% higher, probably more like 17 to 20% higher, and I think you're going to go slam up into this thing. So again, I'm looking for a 2020 topping process. You go up here for 20%, and then you're going to, uh, get a 20% crash. Now, we, the trend line I have right here is steeper; could take us up to the 6,500 to 6,700 area. Again, a number is not my target; a date is not my target; the trend line is my target, and I think that this trend line, these highs, remember these highs and the July high over here, these highs are pointing to the top, and that's what happened in 2000 with the top there; that's what happened with the top with the 2007 top, the, the previous highs were pointing to the next high. This is the final phase of the blowoff top. I think we're, we've now completed with the B, bottoming tail, wave four. I think we're the intermediate wave four with an ABC move. You're now going to get the intermediate wave five, and again, it's either going to happen quick, you know, in a, in, in six, seven weeks or something by the end of April, or it may go a little bit longer, and if it does, the target might go a little higher. Okay, again, a number is not my target; watch the trend line. And we failed to reach the trend line; we went sideways for months here; we failed to reach it; get the sell-off. So I went back, and I looked, and I said, hey, the sell-offs right before the top, and again, 10%, 12% in the last two, U, topping processes for the blowoff top for the bull market to end, you got a big sell-off, and then you, you had this explosive move higher, and that's what we're going to get now. But look at this one more time, the top here in 2000, again, you had a peak here and a peak here. I think that the trend line right here was pointing up to the top right there, and it was an explosive move higher. Look at Pring parameter, rolled over, came down here towards the center line, and it turned back up as we had this move. You went up to the 50, you stalled, you got above the 200, went up to, powerful move up to the 50, stalled there, oh, it's, it's over, the rally's ended, and then this explosive move above the 50. Look at that, look at that. Oh gee, that was in March and April as well. We had a, actually not, not April, uh, March, we peaked in March 24th, which we're in March right now, but again, uh, look at the Pring parameter again, turning back up, forming the divergence, and then it rolled over after we peaked and had this drop, sharp drop, it rolled back over, forming that divergence, and it delayed, delayed divergences there, but you're going to see the same thing happen. And again, the rally to the 50, the pullback, and then the explosive move above these highs, and look at the 2007 top. Oh, and look, you dropped below the 200 period here first. You dropped below the 200, then you got back above it; you kind of danced around a little bit, but the 50 was prevented from crossing. 2007 did the same thing; you had this drop. Now these highs were pointing to the next high right here; it wasn't the more steeper, uh, line. So again, that's why I'm saying it might be 15% if we fall short of my trend line; might be as high as 20%; get a little bit above that, but you got a 12% sell-off here. You drop below the 200, deep below the 200, you got back above it; that's what we just did right now. If we get back above it, then again, you might dance around it, and like in 2000 you went up to that 50, tested it, you stalled, and then you blew past it, and these highs were pointing to the next high. Look at Pring parameter; look at Pring parameter again, came down, and as we rebounded back up, it was prevented from going into negative territory, form that lower high, just like in 2001, and we had a turn up here, but again, roll over, a delayed reaction, uh, but did complete that divergence. You're going to see the same thing happen. Okay, and that's why I'm telling you we're going to claw our way back up the 200 period. You're going to go test the 50, likely stall there; everybody's going to say it's over, it's over, and then you're going to get this big move higher, and you're going to see sentiment really turn super bullish. Fed has our back; things aren't as bad; going to have this soft landing; we're not going to have the recession, and it's going to come in with QE; they've got our back; the bottom is going to fall out of the stock market. This is the way the topping process works. But again, the drop below the 200, the 10 to 12% drop that we've seen with these tops, likely just completed it, or maybe we go down a little bit more to 12% or so, but I think you've got a good shot because Bitcoin is bottoming that the S&P is probably going to follow Bitcoin. Then we have the 20% drop. This was a preview of coming attractions. Then the Fed panicked right here, and we had an attempted rally that ended up failing. If I go further, which I've cut off the chart here, but if we go further, uh, into 2008, bottom fell out of the stock market; we had the Lehman moment and all the rest of it. That's the Black Swan event had already started, uh, right here in December of 2007, and the market had already peaked. So we've got Pring parameter here forming this divergence in 2007; we got Pring parameter here forming this divergence in 2000. What's, what's the S&P doing right now? And I'm making the chart smaller so you can see the whole thing of where I think we're headed, why I think we're going to get like a 17 to 20% rally. But look at Pring parameter. Pring parameter had the divergence right here; we