Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Monday, October 27th brief, it is 8:31 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened in the last 10 days, given that I was on vacation for 10 days. It did me good. I disconnected well. So I haven't taken any trades for 10 days, I haven't even looked at the charts. So, this is the surprise. Well, I spoiled myself a bit anyway, so as not to have to spend too much time on analysis. But in any case, here it is, it's more or less what I imagined would happen, given that I had told you, I don't remember on which chart, it was this one on H4. I had told you that we had a dump to expect in this zone here. So these are things we did just here. We see that we dumped in the 105,000 dollars. Then, we had a rebound. I thought we could push a bit lower, even if the zone of 105, 106 was rather good. And so there were potentially buys to attempt there. We lingered a bit, right. So clearly it could have degenerated if we hadn't held this zone. We could have gone much lower. But in any case, it held up rather well. The plan was rather good on what I had given you in my last video. So currently, we are completely bullish on Bitcoin, so I wouldn't necessarily try to short now, but there could be a reversal coming, and you will see that there is data that shows us that we potentially have a reversal coming in the coming days. So we need to pay attention to it, unless this data changes. Technically, we are currently in the daily IFVG. which we had just here. So if I switch to daily, we see very well that here we had an FVG here. And in fact, when we dumped again with this candle here, we created a second FVG, and currently we are in it. So this IFVG is between 114,800 and 118,254 dollars. We have a second IFVG present between 118,614 and 119,250 dollars. So I think this one is the one we should favor, given that we still have quite a bit of buying on Bitcoin and quite a few people who have started shorting, so it is probable that we will come to test this zone to have a potential reversal on Bitcoin. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean it will be a top, but a reversal in any case, if you want to play a short, it will be in this zone, in my opinion. We currently have no setup on the timeframe to open a short. So if we look at H4, we have nothing at all, we don't necessarily have any longs. The long to take was potentially after this boss here, given that we had an accumulation of liquidity above, well it was to come back and look for the FVG. So we had to wait for the creation of this boss, reversal FVG. And then as soon as we have our close, so our validation of trend change, meaning a reversal of the candle above the red candle, then we can go long. And then it was to come and target at least the equal highs that we had here. So currently in H4, there is not much to do. There are no shorts, there are no longs to take. In H1, same thing, we are not in zones where we want to go long either. Even if we validate a break of structure, we see that we are in the accumulation of liquidity with the indicator, we see it very well, the small gray lines, so these are the old liquidities that we had here. We are playing on them. So, we can very well be rejected, just as we can very well rebound by using them as a support zone. So, it's not necessarily a zone where I would open a long. On the other hand, here, we still have this FVG below, just here with, it was a big bullish candle on it. Now, you will see that in terms of data, personally, I have no desire at all to open a long. And currently, well, if we have a short setup, I think I would favor a short, clearly, given that the data is rather bearish on this.
Regarding economic news, this week we will be well served. Today at 3 PM, we will have new home sales. It's not necessarily the news that interests us the most. However, on Tuesday at 3 PM, we will have consumer confidence. So, this has a direct impact on inflation. And clearly, well, tell yourselves that inflation has a direct impact on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. Not the one coming on Wednesday, the following one, because the figures are already done, they won't change them because of this news tomorrow at 3 PM. However, on Wednesday, we will have the Bank of Canada's decision at 2:45 PM on interest rates, and we will also have an FOMC statement at 7 PM, as well as the Fed's decision on interest rates at 7 PM, and an FOMC press conference at 7:30 PM. So on Wednesday, expect a lot of volatility due to this news. On Thursday at 1:30 PM, we will have the US quarterly GDP. Expect quite a few movements also because of this. We will also have the deposit facility rate of the Eurozone at 2:15 PM. We will have the ECB's decision on interest rates at 2:15 PM, the ECB's press conference at 2:45 PM, and a speech by the Governor at 4:15 PM. So expect, same thing, quite a few movements on Euro USD. On Thursday between 1:30 PM and 5 PM, we are likely to move quite a bit on it. On Friday, we will have the Core PCE, the personal consumption expenditures price index, same thing, direct impact on inflation and consequently on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. So same thing, we are likely to move quite a bit on Friday. So today is a bit calm because we don't have much news. On the other hand, tomorrow it starts with consumer confidence, and the most important day remains Wednesday with the Fed's decision on interest rates. So expect a week rich in volatility.
Regarding crypto, what we see is that we have green almost everywhere. That's good. Bitcoin has rebounded well. We have altcoins that are performing a bit better than others, notably PI, ZC, Virtual, Dash, SPX. So these are altcoins in which we could potentially find setups for scalping because the movements can be intense on them. On the other hand, the altcoins that were performing rather well before my vacation, notably Coagi, XPL, etc., well, we see that they are clearly in the red, and they are not performing with Bitcoin. So what could happen to these altcoins if Bitcoin were to dump? Clearly, it might not smell good at all.
Regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that we had a big rise in open interest with the rise in price. So we see it here, we have a rise in open interest with a rise in funding, which means that these are longs that were opened here. And then, what we see is that, well, we have a redump of open interest here. So we are more on short closures here, since we clearly see a rise, a drop in open interest with a rise in funding. Which means that a majority of shorts are closing, so they are either liquidated, or they are closed, or they are stopped out. And then what we see is that all the pumps, well all the small pumps we have on open interest are also linked to a drop in funding. Which clearly means that these are shorts that are being opened. So we have an accumulation of liquidation trending upwards, and we don't necessarily have liquidations to seek out below. If we look just here, we also see, so here, that it was mostly longs that had been opened. We see a rise in open interest with a rise in funding. Same thing here. So here, we have a rise in open interest with a drop in funding, mostly. So which means that here it was shorts, but logically when we had this pump above, we got them out. So it's potentially on this wick here, by the way, that we got them out. So just here. So currently, in terms of data, we don't have much here that indicates a rise or a fall, given that we have quite a few short closures and long openings on a bullish structure. So clearly, this means that on the setup, the timeframe we have for shorting, we could go much lower.
Regarding liquidations, what we see is that we have taken almost all the liquidity clusters that were to be taken to the north. We don't have much left trending upwards. Now, if I switch to 2 weeks, we might have a bit more history on this, so we could have more things trending upwards to seek out. But well, we are not in huge accumulation zones either. The big zone of interest was around 115,000 dollars. The second zone of interest is around 117,000 dollars. If I switch to one month. So you should know that Coinglass does not necessarily update its results, but well, we see that if we really want to shake everyone out, we would have to go and seek out 118,224 dollars, and that would lead us into the daily IFVG that we had in this zone here, the zone I spoke to you about earlier. We will come back to it regarding what the whales are doing. The whales have currently sold this movement. They sold this pump here. So this is rather encouraging for having a reversal setup, given that whales are often precursors of upcoming bullish or bearish movements. Clearly, we see it here, for example, we had this rise in whale activity. The rise we had here was then propagated by a pump. Then we started to have sales here. Then a complete dump. So we were just on this. Then what we see is that the whales continued to accumulate, accumulate, accumulate, etc. There was a very small sale here, but otherwise it was mostly accumulation, and then, what did we do? We went completely up. So we had movements that were completely precursor here, given that we had a price that was falling with whales that were buying and not selling at all. So clearly, this was a bit of a precursor to this movement. So insiders, we don't know, but precursors, that's for sure. So what we see next is that we had a pump in whale activity here, in this zone. And then what we see is that the price went completely up. And now we are more on selling activity from the whales. So clearly, expect a reversal movement on this. So technically, what I think is that, well, we have currently taken the liquidities here. We are in the daily IFVG of this zone. So we are potentially in a zone where we could reverse. We are approaching the OTE zone. So if we really want a perfect setup, we would have to at least go and seek out 118,929 dollars. But we can very well reverse in this zone. So what I will do is simply wait for a setup at least on M15 to open a short, given that currently we have nothing at all. We could very well simply dump as we have here, to then be able to leave again and simply take out everyone we took out just before. We could even come and seek out the FBG below that we have between 114,237 and 113,500 before having a rebound to go much higher. So clearly, this is not necessarily the best time to open a short. In any case, wait for a setup at least on M15, or even H1, and then if we get it, we can open a short. But for now, there is nothing at all to do. There are no longs, there are no shorts to open, given that, well, simply, we are a bit in the middle of nowhere. We are in the middle, so we are between the short zone and the long zone. So clearly, we don't necessarily need to do much here. So, I expect a pump around 118,900 dollars, and then if we get a low timeframe setup that forms following this zone, I will potentially enter a short. And if we get a short setup here on H1, then it will really require an H1 setup, not necessarily M15. Well, I will enter a short as well to go and seek out the liquidities that are pending below, given that we have accumulated quite a bit of longs on this zone. So we see it simply here. If I switch to a week, we see that we have an accumulation of liquidity to the south, and so clearly we don't have much left to take to the north. So, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, to like this video, and to comment what you think. Don't hesitate to join us on the school to not miss any of the next calls and also to train yourself in trading with the strategy that I simply use every day. It works very, very well. So if you want, don't hesitate. In any case, we will meet on the other side. Have a good day. Take care of yourselves. M.