Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name is Andy. My channel's finding value. Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together. Generally related to three different topics: wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics. So, let's dive in, take a look, see what's going on today.
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So depressed options trader just saw Mike Alfred in line for lunch at the Salvation Army for Christmas. He said, "Sold all my gold today. All my GLD gold bars and jewelry, all of it, and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin at $106,000 a coin. Let's see how this turns out over the next few months." Uh that was in October 17th, 2025. And I'm not here to to to push anything in anyone's face. Uh what I'm going to say is understand the cycles and in my opinion when you price gold against Bitcoin or silver against Bitcoin to me it looks to me like we are shifting from financial assets to hard assets. And I and I talk about this all the time on this channel don't get me wrong.
So if I were to take say Bitcoin uh USD and divide it by gold, you price it against each other, put it on logarithmic. Uh what I see and I know I put this as like a shoulder head shoulder topping pattern. Um I see a a kind of a move that's breaking down where gold's going to outperform Bitcoin. Uh, another way that you can do this is flip it around. It might be easier for some people to see it this way. Uh, what I see here is a falling wedge into a double bottom uh, and a potential breakout uh, where gold is bottoming against Bitcoin uh, and will uh, break out. Now, the way that I drew the other one was like this. So, if you if you if you take it tight, it's actually a double bottom with a falling wedge. You guys know you like my falling wedges into a double bottom. This is going to break out and it's going to rip higher where gold is going to outperform Bitcoin.
Uh you can do this with a whole bunch of different uh assets. You don't have to use gold. You can use silver against Bitcoin. Uh and again, this is what I see here, a monster breakout where silver is outperforming Bitcoin. And what you're going to see is a lot of people are going to say, "Well, how come it's outperforming? Why is it doing this?" They're they're confused. They don't understand why Bitcoin is not outperforming uh the hard assets. What they don't realize is that the cycle's turned on.
So, what I did, and it's always tough to be early in these trades. A lot of people will be in disbelief. They don't believe the move. We're still in the disbelief phase for a lot of this. People do not believe this movement. If you look at the big uh charts where we go through these cycles, uh you can you can go through like a stock market cycle. So this is the um chart that I was looking for here. And when you go through these bubbles and go through the cycle, you get a bottom of the cycle. Uh then you get an accumulation stealth phase. So the bottom of this cycle where it's despair, return to the mean, you generally get a bottoming pattern here. Then you get some sort of it's like a consolidation. It's wave one and then wave two is this bear trap. So wave one is here coming out of the bottom and where people are accumulating. Uh we call that an accumulation area. We get that first selloff, everyone gets real frustrated with it. Uh some people call this the disbelief phase where they are in disbelief of the move. A lot of people get basically kicked out here. Then you go into wave three. There's a, there's a choppiness through here between media attention and enthusiasm. We call that wave four. And then we go into a wave five move which is greed, delusion, and new paradigm. On the back end, you get a bull trap. And sometimes this return to normal can be a double top. It can even go a little bit higher than this top in some instances, but you generally get like a double top or a topping pattern. Shoulder head, shoulder, you could get a uh double top. You could even get like a triple top, something like that. Then you get a big selling pressure move. Uh and then the cycle repeats again.
What people don't realize that is that this cycle uh exists and from bottom to top a lot of the times these cycles last 10 to 15 years. So from 2009 to 2025 uh is the current cycle that technology is in. And Bitcoin has only existed during that big cycle from stealth phase to mania phase. it hasn't gone through this this bull trap pullback uh in a recession. So when when people are looking at the asset, they have no idea that this even exists. They're going to get slaughtered over here. I think not, you know, I'm not trying to be mean. I just think that they're not prepared for an absolute crushing downside move that could last for a decade. So that's what this chart uh silver versus Bitcoin is implying is that we're going to get an outperformance.
Now what I did, not saying that I know the exact bottom, I didn't know when exactly this was going to move, you know, I don't know the short-term market movements, but when you start to see things go into these corners here, that's generally a good indication that you're going to see a turn. So what I did is I went around and I looked at what was cheap in the markets and bought what was cheap all through these corners here. Um I'm looking at a ratio chart here. So a ratio chart doesn't mean you get an absolute bottom. It just means that one asset class which Bitcoin is slowing down against silver and eventually it breaks out. That does not mean that silver and the absolute bottom is here. Uh when you look at the silver price uh your absolute bottom was more like in this zone here and here for good entry points. So in the ratio chart you'll see them squeeze into corners and then you want to buy in these bottoming areas. So this is a falling wedge and this is your ultimate bottom here and here. That's where you really want to load up. Uh at that time, you know, I I was just a little kid here and this when I was uh in high school in college basically. So, I wasn't old enough to have the wherewithal to take advantage of the silver market during this big bull market. But, uh this here, if you were to look, uh you would consider this to be wave one and then this here is wave uh two and then we're entering wave three. and we just started that move. So, I think we have a a ways to go.
Now, when people ask, are we going to get a pullback? What does it look like? I don't necessarily know that answer because we can try to do all these projections. We can try to do all this stuff. And I don't know with high degrees of certainty. You can't really project where exactly these things will turn. So, you'll you'll get a good idea. You could say, well, you know, we're going to move up 1.618, 2.6 something. And and and those are general turning points, but no one knows with certainty. But what we do know, you know, when it was here, and especially in the early 2000s, uh, silver was really cheap. So, if you if you purchased here and you're just riding it the entire way, well, pat yourself on the back. You're well over a 10bagger. you've beaten a lot of asset classes with very minimal risk. It's holding physical metals very minimal risk. So I I you know my approach it's different than maybe other people's and I'm fine with that. I'm I'm cool with the uncertainty in the markets and I think that's where I'm I I can thrive to find assets is because uncertainty can drive some people very crazy while I just look at it and say yeah that's a good it's a good entry point. Um and almost always these are good entry points. So we just had a good entry point. Uh it's the same pattern in palladium if you guys want to know. Uh see this falling wedge into a double bottom just like silver had we just had it here too. Uh now that doesn't mean that palladium is the the cheapest asset amongst precious metals because I obviously I like platinum a little bit more than palladium based off a ratio perspective and uh it is cheap against all the other metals but this is a good turning point uh to move higher from is is all I'm saying.
Michael Gad says, "This chart should scare the heck out of people. Uranium demand is accelerating. Mine supply isn't keeping up." That gap isn't cyclical. Cyclical just means a short-term market cycle. Uh it's structural. Structural is the big secular bull market. It's going to go for a very long time. You can't power AI, data centers, EVs, and electrification with hope. Base load matters. Energy security matters. The next crisis is already visible in the data and this is the structural supply deficit. It widens uh after 2025. You can see that the primary mine supply isn't keeping pace with global uranium demand and that deficit blows out. Uh generally this is very good for pricing because it needs to turn on more supply. Prices need to go up and turn on that supply. Uh we are seeing this type of deficit uh blowout like this on many different commodities. It's not just uranium. Copper has one wicked blowout of deficits out in the future just like uranium does. So does lithium. So does graphite. So does uh a lot of these other renewable uh energy materials. Um, oil has it out in the future. Natural gas has it out a little bit further into the future. Uh, and then I don't know how these are going to get resolved. Um, uranium might be able to, you know, to get resolved, but I don't know if copper will ever get resolved. Like I I think we'll get behind and then I'm not sure if we'll ever catch back up. Um, and and I don't know what that even means for pricing. Silver's in a similar situation. Uh, gold's in a little bit different situation because gold's not really consumed. Uh, platinum's got huge deficits coming in the future. I mean, you could just go through all these different metals and you look at the deficits out in the future and you're just like, you're just like, holy.
JC Parrot says, "This consolidation in materials has been building for more than 40 months. Uh, that's a long time for prices to go essentially nowhere. Markets don't do that forever. If materials are ever going to make a meaningful move. The setup suggests it's getting close for materials. Let's look at XLB uh for materials here. Uh see what I see. Uh so that's uh Oh my goodness, this thing's a Let's get all this other stuff out of there. So remove drawings. Yeah, this looks pretty good. Um what we're seeing here is Man, look at this. So we've got kind of like this big upward move. move. Now, I'm going to throw this on top. I don't know if this is a rising wedge. Uh, it may not be. Uh, another thing it could be is if you come up here and you kind of go across, it could be a consolidation here where we break to the upside here very soon. Uh, so it looks really good if we get a break higher uh for materials uh select sector to really start moving here. It looks pretty solid.
Uh, silver is cheap, says silver Santa. This is $744 silver M2 inflation adjusted all-time high. Uh you can see the big double bottom here. Remember those falling wedges? So this is a falling wedge here into a double bottom and then we're breaking out of the double bottom. Uh so when people compare it to 1980, they're comparing it up here, but we're nowhere near that price. We are just breaking out of this double bottom. So when I when I refer to like cycles, uh people are referring to parts of cycles that are end of a cycle versus more towards the beginning of a cycle. Now at the beginning of the cycle, when you come off this bottom, you generally get a pretty big move like we're seeing, but that may not extend all the way up. Generally, when you get to this area, you'll get a consolidation sideways. So this consolidation here in the mid 1970s, we could we could experience something like that. Now, do I know for sure? Do I know the path? Do I know exactly what it looks like? I don't. But usually around these areas, you get these resistance areas where you could you could chop sideways for a little bit.
Calvin says, "The thing about resource stocks that I had to learn the hard way is how important scale on and longevity are. I'm not saying you can't own high decline, but something with a really long resource life is going to trade at a big premium, maybe 10 to 20x." Uh, and I think that's true. Yeah, we've seen the higher quality stuff with large reserves, they carry higher premiums uh with long mine life and long reserve life uh over other assets with shorter reserve lives uh and shorter mine lives. So yeah, I agree with that. Um, would I shy away from that premium? I think it depends if it can grow production. So some of these longer mine lives, they may still have a lot of room to grow production. Other ones, they might be um struggling to increase production even though the reserve life is somewhat longer. They might already be maxing out the infrastructure. So it really depends.
Uh, palladium was down 7.35% yesterday. This may be a precursor for bearish reversals in gold and silver. Uh, but it doesn't mean a reversal is imminent. Uh, in 2011, for example, palladium made a major top two months ahead of silver. It topped in February while silver topped in April. I don't know if I'd go to that extent, guys. I don't think palladium is a driver of of gold and silver necessarily. Um, they could correlate. Not saying that they can't, but gold and silver, they do trade a little bit different market conditions than palladium. And I wouldn't I wouldn't use palladium as I'll call it the north star to guide us. So, I I I wouldn't uh I wouldn't put that much thought into it. Um, I don't even know if Palladium is going to have a pullback here. We'll see. It might just be a short consolidation or short pullback, not like a topping pattern. So, difficult to say. I wouldn't I I wouldn't take what he's saying at full face value.
Uh, the uranium bull market is just getting started. By 2045, which is out of ways, uranium supply falls 30%, demand doubles, the cumulative deficit reaches 2 mill uh 2,000 million pounds. To put that into concept text, a 2,000 million pound deficit equals 12 years of today's global uranium production. This isn't a resource problem. Uh, there's plenty of uranium in the ground. It's an incentive problem. At current prices, new mine development barely clears the hurdle rate. And when supply can't respond, only one thing does the work, and that's price. So, another person who's very bullish and sees that supply deficit out in the future. Um, you know, just keep in mind that a lot of these materials they we need to build all these minds. I mean, there's a lot. It's I It's in the example of all those different materials that I was labeling off earlier. That all requires energy. All of it requires iron ore and copper and all these different inputs. Uh, energy, diesel, natural gas. Perhaps they use silver if they're going to use renewables like solar or whatever. Uh, lot of things need to be built and you don't have the scale like you've done before. Uh, the scale before was you could focus your resources and your money on large deposits and then what you do is you attribute those costs amongst a large reserve. But on smaller and smaller deposits you can't do that economies of scale so to speak. So you need higher pricing and then the mines have lower ore grades. They aren't as fertile or as close to the surface. They may be way underground or or whatever it is. Uh, so your costs are going way up. The the question then becomes, do we have the energy? And what cost is the energy to get this stuff out? If energy starts to go up substantially, you're going to see the all-in sustaining costs of these high-cost producers go way up. Because energy as an input is a is a big factor in a lot of these break-even costs in in mining.
Silver explodes to $80 an ounce in Shanghai, record high, while the West is on Christmas holidays. Well, it looks like that's moving higher. And I'm sure it will filter into silver prices here in America as well. Uh, trend line polarity and crude oil futures. So, we're hitting this trend line here. And I don't I view this differently. A lot of people view this. They don't see the one, two, three hump consolidation pattern, the breakout, and then the retest. They see this, but there's a cycle under underneath it. Uh, this is wave one. This is wave two. Very similar to 2001. Whenever this goes, I think we're going to see a gigantic move. Very similar to the move in silver. I think copper is going to move like silver right now. So copper will be the next one that really takes off and then I think crude oil will follow behind here shortly. So it's it's not like we know the firing order perfectly, but we can buy these cheap assets and and I think you know the copper equities, they're already running. Uh, but the oil equities, there's still opportunities there and I go over a lot of those opportunities uh on the website of the ones that I like that are low. They're very good entries and and I would I would I would still enter them with my you know my own money. I'm pretty picky on my entry points because that's where you handle your risk.
Metals are on an absolute are on absolute fire and participation is broadening. Uh, great note from ELF charts here are on the next big mover could be. So uh, we've got gold miners that are ripping higher. They've broken out of that resistance in the upper left. Below that is copper miners. So they're they're breaking out and they're making their moves higher already. And then what's delayed behind a little bit is steel stocks. They're just starting to break out. And aluminum hasn't broken out and run yet. Um, we have exposure to each of these areas. You know steel is iron ore steel. This is aluminum, copper and gold. And we went through and and we were buying 22 23 24 down here in gold miners. We were recently buying here in copper diversifying mining companies and stuff. Steel we've been accumulating that the past year. So we've had really good entry points here. Uh, and then aluminum, we entered it uh a while a while back. It was more back here that we entered some of the aluminum stocks. So, but yeah, they look good. Um, commodities are a nose here away from a major base breakout. Get ready. And this is kind of the summation of all of these charts. Uh, oil's kind of holding this thing back because a lot of the commodity indices and indexes are very oil weighted. So, this is commodities X goal and we're just starting to potentially break higher here. I think 2026 could be a pretty big year for uh commodities in general.
We have Elon Musk here. This is what he says. Elon Musk says double-digit GDP growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months if applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be. Triple digit is possible in five years. If that is true, do you know how fast we're going to eat through commodities? Commodities are going to go ballistic. They are going to go ballistic. And I I mean I think a lot of inflation in certain sectors could easily be reduced like healthcare. I think healthcare could be annihilated. Um, I don't think people need to go into the hospital and I think there's easier ways like you could have AI feed them whatever they need. You know, like a hey, I need a steroid because I've got, you know, some sort of cough like a kid. And then you give him a steroid and that should take literally five minutes with AI and and getting a a steroid there for the for the kid so he can breathe. Um, or whatever um whatever it is. So, I think that could be easily cut massively down. Uh, the parabolic base. Oh, I already went over that one.
So, we're going to end it there, guys. That's what we've got for today. So, give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you like. Special is a coupon code. And, uh, that's all I've got for today. Uh, we've got a Q&A session coming up. Um, so it's that Sunday. Sunday, uh, 5:00 pm Mountain time, uh, is our Q&A session. You can bring whatever question you have uh and ask me during that. Some people send questions uh into me before because they can't attend and then I answer them there. So that's all I've got for today. So we'll catch you next time guys. See you.