Transcription
Now, the outgoing French prime minister has suggested that snap elections could be avoided as the country grapples with a political crisis that's been deepened by his own resignation. Sebastian Loru quit his job on Monday after just 27 days in office. He was then given 48 hours by President Emanuel Macron to gather support for a new government.
Following talks, Licoru says there is now cross-party willingness to agree on a budget by the end of the year, making the possibility of a parliamentary election less likely. President Mron has faced repeated demands to call a vote or else resign to end the crisis. For many in France, this video of Emanuel Macron walking alone along the Sen, bodyguards at a close distance, is the image of an increasingly isolated president desperate to save his political career. But there's little sympathy for Macron, who is drowning in a mess many say is of his own making. Hardly anyone's offering a lifeline. And now even his allies are distancing themselves. As I've said, I no longer understand his decision.
The roots of the latest implosion lie in Macron's decision to call a snap election in 2024. That vote produced a hung parliament where no party or alliance managed to secure the absolute majority of 289 seats. It's the reason all three of Macron's picks for prime minister since then have failed to build a stable coalition, which has required securing the support of other parties who've been in no mood for compromise. The only wise decision in these circumstances that's provided for by the constitution is to return to the polls. Having failed to provide the country with stable governance, Macron has largely lost the confidence of the public. A poll commissioned by a national broadcaster showed more than half of French voters believed his resignation would break the current stalemate. Many people today believe the crisis can only be resolved through the main election in the fifth republic, the presidential election. If there were early parliamentary or early presidential elections, the sweeping away of the parties in power and all of those who have worked with Emanuel McCra would be terrible. All that would be left would be the national rally on one side and the very divided left on the other.
Emanuel Macron shot to power in France in what was a bold and unexpected rise at just 39 years old. In Europe, many embraced his bold ambitions for the continent. But his economic reform agenda for France, which included overhauling the pension system, made him unpopular back home. Macron's mandate ends in 2027. He's ruled out leaving office early. For more, I'm joined by Gazina Viba, research fellow at the German Marshall Fund. She's joining us from Paris. Um, welcome to DW. Can I ask you, given the pressure that President M is under at the moment, um, the outgoing prime minister has suggested today that a budget might pass by the end of the year, is this likely? And could this possibly save Mron?
Hi. Um, it is in fact very hard to say at the current moment whether it is likely for a budget to pass very simply because there are so many known unknowns. We have, uh, at the moment absolutely no visibility, um, how a potential next government might look like, which forces in the national assembly might support a budget, and also which, uh, concessions they might ask. Um, there are some information that, um, a budget might pass if there are, um, if there's less, um, cuts made to state spending and if, kind of, the deficit might be bigger than it was foreseen in the last version of, um, the budget, which of course then might cause, um, problems, especially with Brussels, as France is already facing br, uh, pressure on this end. And at the moment, the situation is very much in flux. We have no idea who, um, the most influential figures are going to be. So, um, I think, um, making a safe bet that there's going to be a budget by the end of the year is very optimistic at the moment.
You mentioned Brussels. France's instability is rattling markets. It's weakening the euro. How concerned should Brussels be?
I think the major concern for Brussels at the moment should be a political one. We know that, um, in general, French President Mro has really been pushing, um, on many, uh, policy areas to make progress in Europe, and that in general, the entire European sovereignty agenda has been massively pushed by France. Regardless of whether people like what exactly Mron was pushing for in Europe, it is safe to say that he was an important source of bringing energy into the debates in Brussels, of bringing, um, ideas there, and also forcing other European partners to react to them and then co-shape policy together. So having a France that is active in EU politics in general is something that is good news for Brussels. So on the opposite, um, having France that is mostly inward-looking, um, also potentially slows down progress on the European level simply because it's hard for partners to understand whom to talk to, um, and also to really formulate ambitious policies. And also, Europe generally works best if the Franco-German Nine is able to work, and it isn't at the moment under these conditions.
Can I ask you what all of this means for the biggest opposition party, the far-right National Rally? What, what is their strategy right now? What do they want to see happening?
It is safe to say that, um, and Marine Le Pen has been emphasizing that since, um, last year already, since the snap elections, um, that for the National, the ideal scenario is of course that Mar says, "I have enough," and, um, basically resigns himself. Um, so for the Rasmblon National, um, earlier presidential elections would certainly be something that they would like to see, but the same also goes for, um, anticipated legislative elections because Rasum Le is currently leading the polls, and Marin Le Pen has also already announced, um, to initiate non-confidence votes, um, against any future government.
We'll have to leave it there, but thank you so much. That's Gazina Viva from the German Marshall Fund in Paris. Thank you. Thank you. All right, let's cross straight to Paris where we can speak to our correspondent there, Lisa Louie. Uh, Lisa, we've heard that outgoing Prime Minister Sebastian Lorus sounded a little more optimistic than expected, uh, in his press conference earlier. Given the situation French politics is in, though, does he really have any, any reason to sound optimistic?
Well, he says he has, he says there is a certain kind of willingness to reach a consensus, to reach agreement on a budget by the end of the year. This is really the big issue here in France right now. Remember that France has public debt that is higher than 115% of GDP, and, uh, his predecessor Lono's predecessors actually got voted out because he wanted to get support for a budget suggestion, uh, for the next year. Now L Coru has said that the parties seem to be agreeing, seem to agree that they need to come together, that something's got to give, and he's also said indicated that the budget effort, the effort to bring down that deficit might actually be smaller next year, not, uh, bringing it down to 4.6% sec, 6% of GDP, but rather 4.7 to 5%. And he said that parties seem to have understood that, you know, they needed to come together in order to prevent parliamentary elections. Is that really going to happen? We will see in the next hours. He is in talks with different parties, especially from the center-left and the socialists have already come out of that meeting, meeting sounding less optimistic, saying basically that they didn't believe, uh, that the government was really willing to suspend a controversial pension reform. That is one of their main demands. So we will see if Luanu, the outgoing prime minister, would re, indeed be able to bring together these different points of views in the coming hours.
Now, French politics, the state it's in, the instability, it's rattling markets, it's weakening the euro. How worrying is all of this for the European Union?
Well, it is quite worrying. You know, it's the second biggest economy in the European Union, and as I said, you know, public debt is right, is, is really high, and the budget deficit also is very difficult to bring down. However, talking to economists, they've been telling me that there is no worry to be had about, you know, an instant bankruptcy of the country or something like that. They're saying France is now paying higher interest rates, uh, to refinance its debt, but the debt it has is actually, they, they acquired that debt when they had really low interest rates. So for now, all that does is really to limit France's ability to spend more money in France, and that obviously also has an impact on the political situation, but there's no immediate risk of a financial euro-wide, euro zone-wide crisis.
I think Lisa, thank you so much for that. That's our correspondent in Paris, Lisa Louie.