Transcription
In the age of social media that we live in right now, people read headlines and just run with things. The whole "it sounds good and I'm really too lazy to research it" type mentality. But we aren't in the business of just dropping meaningless hot takes to be relevant around here. So when we hear things like "zero RB is the best way to draft" or "wide receiver is super deep, just go wide receiver," but there is nothing to back that take up, it kind of makes us gag a little bit.
So, when you actually look at the facts, what is the best way to draft in fantasy football? Well, I just spent the entire day in a dark hole researching the balls off of it. So, let's see what really works.
What is going on, Headliner Nation? Hopefully, everyone is doing well out there. We're going to have some fun here in today's show. So, here is what I did. I hope you got your ears on, 'cause I'm about to preach and take you to fantasy church. Now, if you're watching this and are not subscribed to the channel, this is going to be the video that hooks you. You might as well just hit the subscribe button right now, 'cause it's going to be a banger here today.
But all right. Anyway, I went back and drafted four teams based off of actual 2024 fantasy football ADP. I used a 12-team league format and half PPR scoring. I did an early round pick, two middle round picks, and a late round pick. I then shut my brain off. I tried to forget everything I knew that happened in the 2024 NFL season. Why would I possibly do that? Duh. 'Cause I was supposed to be drafting a team for 2024 without knowing the outcomes already.
I then drafted eight rounds for four teams in each draft position. A zero RB team, a zero wide receiver team, and then two balanced teams that were a mixture of both of them. In every instance, I drafted the same quarterback and the same tight end for all the teams for that pick. I did that so those positions wouldn't skew the numbers. For example, had the Zero RB team drafted Lamar Jackson and the zero wide receiver team drafted Kyler Murray, it would have made a bigger difference than the actual strategies that were being used.
I then found the total points scored by each player on each team, and I totaled it up. Which team would spit out the highest point totals? That's what we were looking for.
Now, since there is no official fantasy football dictionary, this is how I categorized each drafting style. For zero RB, I drafted three wide receivers, a tight end, and a quarterback before taking my first running back in the sixth round. For zero wide receiver, I did the same thing except for no wide receivers until the sixth round. And here are the results we came up with.
And the first pick we recreated was the number one overall pick. We did the first overall, the fifth overall, the eighth overall, and the 12th overall. Now here on the screen you can see the round and the overall pick in which these guys were taken. We also have the eight rounds for four different teams: the zero RB, the zero wide receiver, and then a combo of each, more of a balanced approach. But let's go through and see how these teams came out. Remember, I had to use realistic ADP. I couldn't just put in the highest scoring players 'cause I knew what happened last year. I had to pretend I knew nothing.
So, starting off with the Zero RB team in the first round, if you had the number one overall pick and you were looking for a wide receiver last year, it was Tyreek Hill. Now, after Tyreek, obviously the first overall pick needs to wait until the last pick of the second round. They got the turn, the 24th and 25th overall. Last year, at those points, if you were loading up on wide receivers, you were going with the likes of Chris Olave and Nico Collins right here in the fourth and the fifth round. This is where I took the quarterback and tight end. You can also see these quarterbacks and tight ends were taken for all four different teams. Remember, we did that so that doesn't skew the overall numbers at the end. We're trying to figure out what is better: heavy running back, heavy wide receiver, or a balanced approach early. So, we went with Trey McBride and Kyler Murray. This is kind of where their ADP was last season.
But then we get to the sixth round. It's the last pick of the sixth round here, and this is where we can start drafting running backs. Well, at that point at the turn, the last pick of the sixth and the first of the seventh, we're looking at two guys like Javonte Williams of Denver last year and then Tony Pollard of the Tennessee Titans. Now, at the time, that wasn't really bad, right? You landed two starting running backs on two NFL teams, but then you had to wait until the last pick of the eighth, and that's where you came back and took Austin Ekeler. Now, obviously Ekeler had moved on from LA. He was in Washington, more of a backup type role, but still a higher upside guy that you got in the eighth last year if you were looking for some late-round running backs.
But now we move over to the zero wide receiver team. If you were looking for running backs heavy and you had the number one overall pick, you took Christian McCaffrey last year. Obviously, it didn't work out, but remember last year at the time of drafts, no one was seeing the future. Then we wait until that second, third round turn. If you're loading up on running backs, it was Josh Jacobs and James Cook. Then we see the duo of Trey McBride and Kyler Murray once again. But now we can start landing some wide receivers on this team. The last pick of the sixth round, the first pick of the seventh. At that point of the drafts, we're looking at guys like Keenan Allen and Chris Godwin. Obviously, not bad options whatsoever. Keenan Allen's always been a target hog. We loved Chris Godwin last offseason, but then we get another option, the last pick of the eighth round, and that's where Jameson Williams was going last season.
So, now that we've built our zero RB team and our zero wide receiver team, we basically just took a combo of each team, more of a balanced approach. Now, when we did this and we totaled up all their total points scored, maybe it's a surprise to you, maybe it's not, but the balanced approach, the combo team that we made of Tyreek Hill, Josh Jacobs, Nico Collins paired with the quarterback and tight end duo of Trey McBride and Kyler Murray with Keenan Allen, Tony Pollard, and Jameson Williams, they were the highest scoring group here in the number one overall pick. Now, just after that balanced approach, zero wide receiver came in second. They are about 130 points behind. So then we get zero RB in third, and then that balanced approach at the very end because they dealt with some serious injuries to Chris Olave and Christian McCaffrey.
So now let's look at another scenario, the fifth overall pick. We'll start off once again with Zero RB. You can see their overall pick numbers: 5, 20, 29, 44, 53, 68, 77, and 92. So, if you were a zero RB drafter and you had the fifth pick last year, you're looking at Justin Jefferson in the draft. You follow that up in the second round at the 20th overall pick and could have gotten Drake London. Now, for this scenario, once again, like I've said, we've kept the same quarterback and same tight end. At the 29th overall pick, Patrick Mahomes was sitting there, and a lot of people took him. So, Patrick Mahomes in this situation will now be the quarterback on all four options. We also paired him up with George Kittle at tight end in the fifth round. You see him on all the teams as well. But what about in the fourth round? We went with another wide receiver. We had two wide receivers, we had a quarterback, and here's where we got Stefon Diggs. And then we went with George Kittle in the fifth.
So now that we've had our three wide receivers, our quarterback, and our tight end, we can start drafting running backs. At the 68th overall pick in the sixth round for this team, you're looking at Najee Harris. In the seventh round, it was Brian Robinson Jr., and then in the eighth at 92nd overall, it would have been Devin Singletary. Now, on the surface, not knowing how 2024 went, it looks like you got three starting running backs. So, at least you came into the season with decent options.
But now we go over to the zero wide receiver team. If you had the fifth overall pick, you were looking at Bijan Robinson. After him in the second round, 20th overall, you could have landed De'Von Achane. Then we see Patrick Mahomes once again, but we're going to go back to the running back position 'cause we already knew that George Kittle was in the fifth. For our third running back in the fourth round, you could have gotten Alvin Kamara, which means now we've got our three running backs, our quarterback, and our tight end. Let's start finding some wide receivers. In the sixth round, if you had the fifth overall pick, it would have been Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders. As we go to the middle of the seventh round, it would have been Calvin Ridley, and then at 92nd overall, in the eighth round, it was Xavier Worthy, rookie wide receiver of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now, just like we did last time, we made a combo of each one of these teams to try to give that more balanced approach. But we went and totaled up the points once again, and this time from the fifth overall pick, the zero wide receiver team is the leader at over 1,800 points on the season. In second place, it was combo number two, a balanced approach. In third place, it was combo number one, another balanced approach. And then last place was Zero RB for the fifth overall spot.
All right, now we move on to the eighth overall pick. Let's see this scenario and how it panned out. We'll start off once again at zero RB. You would have had overall picks 8, 17, 32, 41, 56, 65, 80, and 89 from this spot. Now at zero running back, if you had the eighth overall pick, you were staring at Amon-Ra St. Brown as the number one option on your fantasy team. Coming back in the second round, 17th overall, it would have been Davante Adams. Now, as we move forward to the third round, 32nd overall, this is where Lamar Jackson was sitting. So, Lamar Jackson goes into all of our teams in this scenario. Now, after him in the fourth round at the 41st overall pick, you would have went Jaylen Waddle. Waddle, Adams, and Brown, heading into 2024, sounded like a lethal combination. Now, after him in the fifth round is where we grabbed our tight end. We had to have a tight end here. We already had a quarterback and three wide receivers. So, Dalton Kincaid is the tight end that we used here across the board. And then we move to the sixth when we can start drafting running backs. Who was available for us at 65th overall? It was De'Andre Swift. After him in the seventh, it was Zack Moss. Remember, he was supposed to be the starter in Cincinnati heading into the 2024 season. And then the eighth round, it was Jerome Ford of the Cleveland Browns.
So, now we go over to the zero wide receiver spot. And this is where we started off super heavy at running back with the likes of Jonathan Taylor and then backed it up in the second round with Derrick Henry. Remember, every offseason people think Derrick Henry is washed and the wheels are going to fall off. I'm sorry, Derrick Henry going to Baltimore was a smash, and anyone who got him in the second round absolutely killed it last year. Starting off Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, pretty elite. Then we had our quarterback position in Lamar Jackson. The third running back taken in the fourth. It would have been Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans. Then we see Dalton Kincaid here. But now we can start going with some wide receivers. Who is available in the sixth, the seventh, and the eighth? Well, in the sixth at 65th overall, it was Zay Flowers. In the seventh, at 80th overall, it would have been Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And then at 89th overall, it would have been rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs of the Chicago Bears.
Now, once again, we made a combination of each one of these scenarios to kind of give that balanced approach, but then we totaled up the points. And who walked away on top? It was zero wide receiver again. The early running backs are dominating. In second place here, it would have been our balanced approach of combo two. In third place, the balanced approach of combo one. And then who brings up the rear again? Zero RB.
Now, I don't know about you, but for all these people that are out there preaching zero RB and grabbing running backs late, it's not looking very good for them. But we still have one scenario left. Let's look at the 12th overall pick from last year. And you'll see that this is where we got picks 12, 13, 36, 37, 60, 61, 84, and 85. We'll start off once again at zero RB. At the 12th overall pick, it would have been Garrett Wilson, but being right there at the turn at the 13th, you could have gotten Puka Nacua as well. Starting Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua in 2024 probably would have made you happy if you're going heavy wide receiver. Then you had to wait till the last pick of the third round, 36th overall. That's where DJ Moore was sitting. So, because we already have our three wide receivers, we had to go quarterback and tight end here to get us into the sixth round. At the 37th overall pick, we were looking at Mark Andrews. And then the last pick of the fifth, at 60th overall, that's where Joe Burrow was at.
So, now that we've made it through the five picks, who can we start drafting at the running back position at the 601, 61st overall? It would have been Rhamondre Stevenson of the New England Patriots, but then we had to wait until the last pick of the seventh round. And that would be the 84th overall pick. It would have been Raheem Mostert of the Miami Dolphins. Don't forget he was coming off a huge 2023 season where he basically scored a bajillion touchdowns. So, he was still on a lot of people's radars last season. And then with the first pick of the eighth round, that's where they grabbed Chase Brown. Now, at the first pick in the eighth round, 85th overall, this is somewhere right around where Chase Brown was going close to the start of the season when a lot of rumors were coming out that he was going to have a bigger role. But, if I'm being honest, I kind of still threw him in there 'cause I'm just trying to help zero RB out all I can.
But now we're looking at zero wide receiver. And if you had the 12th overall pick, you were looking at Jahmyr Gibbs in 2024. How about the first pick of the second round? You could have went with Kyren Williams. Back-to-back Gibbs and Williams would have made the eggplant happy. Then we're waiting all the way till the end of the third and you would have gotten Kenneth Walker right there, which means we finish it out with Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow for our quarterback and tight end position. But now we can start going wide receiver. Who was available? The first pick of the sixth round. It was Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. But now we had to wait for a while. The last pick of the seventh, the first pick of the eighth. Sitting there at the wide receiver position would have been Courtland Sutton in the seventh and then Ladd McConkey in the eighth.
We then did exactly what we did with all the other scenarios. We built a combination team, a more balanced approach based off of these draft picks. We then totaled up the point total and who came in first once again? It was zero wide receiver. Once again, going running back early dominated. In second place here, we had our balanced approach of combo two. In third place, the balanced approach of combo one. And then in then last place, once again, zero RB.
But now that we've gone through each one of these scenarios, let's go through a few takeaways from this information. Now, first up, not once was Zero RB the highest scoring option despite being talked up probably the most in the fantasy football industry. Now, in case you haven't watched this channel over the last few years, let me just tell you this: Zero RB has now finished last the two years prior to this year. So for three straight years, it's just not showing to be very effective. It finished last in three of these four draft spots, and the one that it didn't finish in last, it finished in third.
Now, there is this myth out there yearly that you can just magically find all these mid-round running backs. It is just not true. 75% of the time, the zero wide receiver team is what scored the most points, having those running backs early. In fact, only five running backs drafted after the fifth round actually helped carry your team in 2024. Who were they? It was Tony Pollard, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and De'Andre Swift. Tony Pollard was drafted as the RB27, finished as the RB21. Chase Brown drafted as the RB37, finished as the RB12. Chuba drafted as the RB42, finished as the RB15. Bucky Irving, drafted as the RB53, finished as the RB14. And De'Andre Swift was drafted as the RB22 and finished as the RB19. Only one of these guys finished up inside the top 12, but some of these guys had similar ADP, so that greatly minimizes your chances at getting more than one of them. For Zero RB to have worked for you, you would have had to have at least three of these guys on your team last year. And Chase Brown would have had to have been an absolute must. He was a league winner last year, and it's why we had him as a sleeper in our draft guide last season. I'm willing to guess that there were very few Zero RB teams out there last season that had Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and Bucky Irving all on the same roster. Could it have happened? Sure. The likelihood of it though, not very likely.
But what about the wide receiver side of things? There were 10 wide receivers drafted after the fifth round that finished inside the top 24 wide receivers on the season. That is twice as many players as the running back position had. We had Brian Thomas Jr. drafted as the wide receiver 46, finished as the wide receiver four. Terry McLaurin drafted as the wide receiver 30, finished as the wide receiver six. JSN Jackson Smith-Njigba drafted as the wide receiver 41, finished as the wide receiver 10. Ladd McConkey drafted as the wide receiver 44, finished wide receiver 12. Courtland Sutton drafted as wide receiver 47, finished at wide receiver 13. Jerry Jeudy drafted at wide receiver 57, finished at wide receiver 15. Jameson Williams drafted as wide receiver 48, finished as the wide receiver 19. How about Jordan Addison? He was drafted as the wide receiver 43, finished as the wide receiver 20. Also had Zay Flowers drafted at wide receiver 26, finishing at wide receiver 23. And then Jakobi Meyers drafted at wide receiver 54, finishing as wide receiver 24. Now, you had a chance to get a lot of these guys late in your drafts, and none of them were an absolute must to grab to make it happen. Four top 12 wide receivers were drafted after the fifth round in 2024 compared to only one running back that finished inside the top 12 that was drafted outside the fifth round.
But let me narrow this down to 10 overall takeaways. First, stop letting used car salesmen all over YouTube tell you some BS and then have no data to back it up. Next, don't lock yourself into a certain position in certain rounds. One of the biggest mistakes you can actually make in playing fantasy football. How about don't be afraid to draft the best players available and build a well-rounded team. We saw that worked out here more times than not as well. The data does show that it is more likely to have a higher scoring team if you go running back early over wide receiver early.
Now, the next takeaway may be the most important takeaway, and it's something that not a lot of people talk about. Nailing the highest scoring quarterback in the latest round possible is the ultimate key to fantasy football success. If you're able to find a high finisher in a mid- to late-round, more times than not, your fantasy team is going to make a deep run in the playoffs. Next up, it's not the early round picks that determine your ultimate success. Look at all the players on these teams that ended up hurt. Every year, early round studs will either bust or get hurt. It's going to happen. It's always happened. It's going to continue to happen.
Then, just like we've already said, every year there are players drafted after the fifth round that explode, finish top 12 at the position, and boost your fantasy team's production. And then I'll end it with a couple examples. Who really cares if you drafted Christian McCaffrey and he didn't pan out? If you drafted Chase Brown later on and he was on your bench, or who really cares if you drafted Chris Olave way too early? If you drafted Brian Thomas Jr. later and he was just on your bench ready to go into your lineup. Just do yourself a favor. Don't overcomplicate the game. You'll find success more times than not if you do that. Don't fall for clickbait nonsense that doesn't have facts to back it up. Remember, people lie, numbers don't. Analytics off the chain, other channels not the same. Jake and Kyle, you know the name.