Transcription
Never again, never again will we let such an obvious league-winning pick like Jackson Smith and Jiggs slip out from underneath our nose. That's why today's show is all about identifying the six perfect fantasy picks that are still out there that aren't getting enough attention. And to guide us through all of that is the great Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. Ryan, you did it again, my friend. You gave us another banger of an article this summer.
Thank you, man. Yeah, I really appreciate that. It's It's always I you never know like which articles are going to really get a good response. And I I was not expecting this one to honestly. This was very much like I'm nerding out about this topic. I'm just thinking about personnel changes and stuff and how it could affect fantasy football. Like I really thought this would be my little hobby horse thing and that it wouldn't like catch on the way it did. But yeah, re really happy with the response and yeah, just I as you said, I just never want to make the mistake of missing Jackson Smith and Jigba like I did last year. So that really kind of inspired this whole research and this entire piece.
Yeah, I think he was going as wide receiver 15 last year on underdog. I had him ranked exactly as wide receiver 15 and then as soon as the season started to unfold, you realize I was way too low on him and I could have easily just a couple wide receiver spots ahead of that uh had him on every single team. And I I love this topic because we've already hit on a couple times. So, this is like the deepest we're going to go in it all summer long. It's this perfect intersection of how real-life football can then impact fantasy scoring for a position that is kind of go undergoing some change as we've seen it in recent years. And not just that, it's not just identifying which teams this could happen based on last year's numbers. It's also predicting which ones have invested so much in the tight end or fullback rooms, which then minimizes how many wide receivers are on the field. And so that leaves like a prediction element on top of this as well. So like again the the lead that you had here was you know JSN went from rarely playing in two wide receiver sets last year to 51% of his production coming from two wide receiver sets in 2025 which made up just 38% of his total routes. So was that it? Was it just missing out on JSN was the reason why you wanted to write this article?
It was partially that. So that that had been in my mind just because I was I've been a Clint Kubiak believer in Booster including last offseason, but I ended up just being on Ken Walker. I I think we discussed that on this show that we were all very high on Ken Walker.
And it would have worked, Ryan, if we just got, you know, the playoff usage all season long.
Exactly. Yeah. So whatever. Vindicated on that. Not really, but I we can cope. But yeah, the other like big kind of Kubiakism that I knew about last offseason but just didn't put enough stock in, didn't think about enough with regard to JSN was, yeah, the condensed routes just in terms of he would drop back a lot with only two wide receivers on the field. That increases the efficiency of whatever wide receivers remain. I I have the numbers laid out at the top of the article, but yeah, it's roughly a 30% increase just for going from three receivers on the field to two receivers on the field in terms of fantasy points per route run just because it's yeah, easier to earn targets against fullbacks and blocking tight ends and such. So, yeah, that was part of why I wrote it. Also, we saw in the NFL draft that teams are taking sort of the 12 personnel and heavy personnel revolution very, very seriously. Uh, we see even I I'm not sure that every team is doing it correctly necessarily. Maybe we'll talk about Yeah. the Jaguars or whatever, but yeah, they're they're all trying. They're drafting blocking tight ends very early. It is going to be at at least a thing that NFL teams are trying to do this year. So, yeah, it it's kind of left to us to diagnose and figure out how all of it's going to shake out on each team. And that that's really what I tried to do with this article for any of the teams that I had a good feeling about uh or that I could make a good like fantasy relevant argument about in terms of a shift from 11 personnel to 12 personnel or vice versa.
Once again, we's going to show some graphics from the article. Obviously, that is linked in the description down below. I really encourage all of you to check it out. Uh Ryan, you brought a whole bunch of information here for this episode. And again, we're going to talk about the six or more names that really headline this article, but laying the foundation, I think, is really important. And I'm just not going by the information you brought, Ryan. I I did a little bit myself here, too, of of digging in research. So, like what I found the highest percentage of pass attempts in two wide receiver sets or less last season was the Baltimore Ravens around 58%. There were a handful of teams in like the mid 40% but to me the biggest changes go into exactly what you're talking about. The ones the organizations that were near the bottom of the list last year that heavily invested in bigger bodies this off seasonason. I mean the Texans last season just 74 passes in two wide receiver sets or less. Then they spent a second round pick on a tight end and also signed Foster Moreau. The Chargers were a 100 pass attempts. They signed Charlie Kolar, David and Joku, Alec Engold. The Jaguars 104 as you said the infamous already. Nate Borercher selection in round two. The Jets 107, Keenan Sadique round one. And the Saints were 24th with 114 pass attempts with two wide receivers or fewer on the field last season. And they also added Oscar Delp and Noah Fant. And again, that's anywhere from teams that rank 24th through 32nd. And that doesn't even include the middle section of of, you know, the NFL last year. So, I'm excited for this. I don't know how we want to start, but should we just dig into some of the names that you believe could be quote unquote this year's Jackson Smith and J?
Yeah, let's do it. We can just start with the biggest name, the one that just leapt to me immediately that I felt the best about as I kind of wrote everyone in this article. I I was like, this is the headliner. Uh, it's Lad McConi for me. I I think he is the most clearly analogous uh candidate to be this year's Jackson Smith and Jigba. Um it the biggest thing is yes, as you just laid out, they add all of these fullbacks and all these tight ends. We have the history from Mike McDaniel uh when he was with the Dolphins was always among the league leaders in terms of dropping back in sets with two or fewer wide receivers. Right. We look at the Chargers personnel. Yeah, they add Charlie Kar, uh, Alec Engold, they are clearly building to be a bit heavier. Uh, their receiving personnel is kind of Lad McConi and a bunch of guys that might be good in partial roles. I Trey Harris has has his fans. Quinton Johnson has his fans. Uh, but there's no like clear second or third receiver that is going to demand, oh, I have to be on the field in 11 personnel. There have to be three receivers on the field. like it's not clear at all that that's their best way of operating. So what that means is if Vlad McConi is the guy that never leaves the field and I I as I said I think he's the best candidate for that right now on the Chargers uh then we can see just a massive efficiency increase from him. Uh real life-wise I think MCONI is an excellent player. We saw that in his rookie season. uh all of his separation metrics through his rookie year and parts of his year two were excellent uh from what we track over at Fantasy Points data. Uh and if you just kind of take his first two seasons uh overall together without like ordering, oh well, he went from really good in year one to disappointing us a little bit in year two. His stats through two seasons are better than Jackson Smith and Jigba's were through his first two seasons. like he's been a more productive NFL player over his first two years. So, if we're looking for a year three breakout in terms of has this receiver gotten to like a production threshold that we would want to feel okay about a breakout possibly happening, McConi easily clears that or at least he clears it more than JSN did last year. So, I I think the two other big things to kind of watch are of course will the Chargers resign Keenan Allen? Uh, I don't think they will. I don't think he fits what McDaniel wants to do. Uh, Allen was a big reason why they were in three and four receiver sets so often last year and spreading it so much. Uh, which is odd for Greg Roman, not what you would have expected, but it I think he kind of forced them to play like that with all these receivers on the field. Uh, and of course the offensive line is hopefully, fingers crossed with the Chargers as always going to be much healthier. the yeah the efficiency splits with and without Joe Alt last year are huge. So yeah, all of these things come together for me and and say yeah Lad McConi is the most analogous to JSN if you're betting on a receiver in round three, round four to kind of take that leap. He makes the most sense to me.
And a new play caller on top of it, right? Because we know like a shift just in a a play caller's mindset changes how a player gets utilized the the year before. There's so much that you hit on there that I want to really dissect a whole bunch of the pieces. This time last year, Hayden and I got a lot of heat when we reviewed the second-year wide receivers saying Lad Mcconkey's tape, and this is just eye test anecdotal stuff, right, was equally as impressive as Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr., I still believe that from his rookie season. I mean, how easily he separates um how he kind of plays bigger than his frame than I expected coming out of Georgia was really exciting. And that led everyone, all of us, to willingly draft Vlad Makoni last season as a 21st overall player. And now we're able to get him as the 41st overall player kind of in the middle of the fourth round territory. And we know what happened second year. Really, none of these second-year wide receivers really took off as we are previously expecting. But it goes back to how you are discussing that obviously all wide receivers are more efficient when there are fewer wide receivers on the field. Again, it makes sense that that one or two wide receivers are better than the tight end two or tight end three or even fullback one in this case at commanding and and drawing a target. But that's what we're getting here with Mike McDaniel, right? It's not just necessarily two tight ends or three tight ends. It's also a fullback involved and it's the one that already knows his offense in in Alec Engold. So, as you wrote, Vladim Manunki only ran 10% of his routes from sets with fewer than three wide receivers this past season. Comparison, that number was 46% with Mike McDaniel with Jaylen Wadd out there. So, we are funneling the best pass catcher hopefully in Lan Maki on this team more and more opportunity and more and more in those opportunities uh to be clearly the number one pass catcher on his team.
Yeah, 100%. Yeah, couldn't couldn't have said it better myself. Um that's yeah that's really what it is to me. I there are other receivers you can make kind of similar arguments for, but just in in terms of it being a young player year three who has e even down to like them being archetype-wise thought of as like oh they're kind of more slot type of players like McConi being able to move to an everyown role uh win on the outside which he has like his per route stats his separation all of that on the outside has been great throughout his career. uh even that like piece kind of fits in terms of comparing him to Smith and Jigba. So yeah, he he's just been my go-to in round four basically just he's he's the breakout I'm betting on there.
I I I totally hear you. Like there are some other round four wide receivers that I like and you know Terry McLaren close to the end of it. Obviously Coulson Loveland I'm a big Luther Burton guy and hecka is in that round. So uh round four is just like such such a much better round to select players and the running backs I have questions about. So, it's it's like heavy wide receiver or tight end for me in round four. Two more points on this. I love how you noted that actually Lad Maconi had more production than JSN through two NFL seasons before the year three breakout, which you know, it can be easy to forget about that with Jackson Smith and Jigba heading into his year three season in 2025. Uh, one question I did have for you. We kind of were thrown a wrench or wrinkle last year in this offense, and again that was with Greg Roman, but when they were in single wide receiver sets with multiple tight ends on the field, Trey Harris was the one that had the most wide receiver usage among any of these guys, and it was kind of split equally between the group after that. What do you think the odds are that Trey Harris once again owns the 13 personnel looks or 22 personnel looks this season?
Well, I think it's important to differentiate when we're just looking at snap shares in these sets, right? Because yes, Trey Harris was the one receiver in those sets a lot of the time last year, but that's not always because they're dropping back out of those sets, right? A lot of the times that's because we want Trey Harris on the field as a blocker because we're going to run the ball out of heavy sets and teams overall more often do run the ball out of heavy sets. what we're looking for is who's going to be on the field when they're actually going to drop back out of the heavy sets and and that's like from a kind of a bigger like picture perspective that's like what the advantage or quote unquote like the efficiency hack is here right uh th this was a big topic with the Rams last year uh with Greg Olson talking about it for weeks at a time like teams figuring out the Rams Seahawks especially that they they can just drop back out of these heavy sets especially If their personnel is such that they can run or pass out of them, it just makes the job of the defenses much harder to match that personnel. Are you defending the pass? Uh are you bringing bigger bodies on the field to defend the run? It it's like very very difficult. Um so yes, while Trey Harris maybe is the best run blocker and if they're just going to run out of heavy personnel, it could just be him. I really think if if they're serious about we want to be multiple, be able to run or pass out of these sets and just be as efficient as possible on offense, then you want your best pass catcher as the wide receiver on the field there.
Love that. Again, last year's show you came on, we talked about some potential league winners. We brought up Ken Walker at the top of the show, but let's also not forget that, you know, we discussed Drake May on this episode. Chris Alave was a player that you and I were relentlessly drafting last year. I think it was because of, you know, the first down per route run metric that you brought up where that is kind of the most stable between league winning wide receivers year on year. Um, so, you know, I think this is a pretty good episode for people to tune into. Okay. I'm relentlessly drafting Vladimony at this time. Who's next up on your list here that we should be paying attention to?
Um, let's uh let's go to Drake London.
Uh, he's I guess a bit more of an obvious one go going in round two, of course. Uh and of course last year he did he already was somewhat benefiting from more heavy personnel. Um but we should expect to see something similar uh with Tommy Reese as the play caller. Uh he was calling the plays for the Browns through most of last year. Uh has always been kind of a he a heavier like more tight end centric offense uh even back when he was at Notre Dame. So that gives us very likely fewer receivers for Drake London to compete with. Uh so you're kind kind of tertiary Falcons receivers. Zachariah Branch, Alam Zakias, all these guys probably losing out somewhat in terms of snapshare. Uh and when you just look at how London performed in these heavy sets, it was incredible. uh with two or few wide two or fewer wide receivers on the field last year. London was up at 3.13 yards per out run, 61 fantasy points per out run. Uh that was nearly twice as much as any other Falcons receiver on those plays. Uh and of course, even without like getting into the weeds of heavy personnel, uh Drake London was amazing last year before he injured his PCL. Uh he was averaging 19.8 PPR points per game. He was the wide receiver three uh up until week 11. Of course, he came back for a few games, which is pretty rare. Players usually don't come back from PCL injuries. Didn't play that well. Kyle Pittz was just kind of having the offense run through him. To me, it's like much more real that London is dominating there from heavy personnel. I expect that to just continue. and he's being drafted kind of as if that didn't happen last year, like as if he wasn't a top five wide receiver for the entire season up until the injury. So, he's one he's one where it's like it it could be a similar kind of heavy personnel situation, but that gives me like more confidence in him as like one of the best picks in round two right now.
Yeah. Over on underdog, he's the wide receiver seven smack dab in the middle of round two. We wax poetic about Drake London. It's so cool to see him already get paid. And as you talked about here with the play callers, it's Tommy Reese and obviously Kevin Sansky coming over as head coach. We'll talk about someone from his tree a bit later on with Drew Ping in Detroit as well. These guys love multiple tight end sets. So while the league it kind of is being commercialized as they are chasing the LA Rams with 13 personnel stuff, Drew Petting and you know Kevin Sansky have been running these you know heavy tight end personnel offenses for like the past two and three years you know so he's just going to bring that right to Atlanta. So like while you could say sure last season with the Falcons their wide receiver depth was really a disaster and so they ran a lot more of 12 personnel so they could get Cal Pitts onto the field even more. Uh I think you can say the exact same thing here again when it comes to this offense like I think out of 12 13 and 21 personnel the Browns had the second most pass plays across the league. So if we can just copy and paste this even if the concerns are with Tua Tonga Biloa and Michael Penn at quarterback we've kind of gotten that styling of quarterback over the last couple seasons and like you said Drake London coming back from that PCL when people rarely do. So there's rarely any data coming from it. He was a wide receiver 71 and I think like 113 in the first two games coming back which kind of skews his you know entire season fantasy uh outlook. Speaking of contract extensions, let's talk about Christian Watson. I know that's one of your favorite players this summer. Let's talk about the uh heavily handsomely paid wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers.
Oh yes. Yeah. Christian Watson, one of my favorite players in the NFL. It it was a very fun day to watch him get paid. Enjoy that. Uh but yeah, I think he even before he got paid, I think he was just one of the best values in drafts because of kind of the the personnel puzzle that the Packers present this year. So kind you can argue either way honestly on whether you think they'll play more three receiver sets or more two receiver sets. They like to do some two tight end stuff when Tucker Craft was healthy. Uh they certainly can play 11 personnel with Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed, but what's really important is that just looking at what they did in two receiver sets last year, uh those were dominated largely by Romeo Dobs, who's no longer there, uh and Dontavian Wixs would mix in some who was also no longer there. uh a And who was like the most direct kind of rotate rotation piece with Christian Watson kind of limiting his playing time at different points over his career. Uh so when you just look at the receivers they have left uh Watson played on 62% of the Packers drop backs from two or fewer receiver sets on them. He averaged 3.18 yards per out run uh which was eighth best in the NFL. And you look at Matthew Golden there, uh, his route particip participation in the heavy sets down at 43%, Jaden Reed down at 1 and a.5% has basically never played in two receiver sets at any point in his NFL career. So, what this kind of does, uh, compared to last year where we had five receivers just rotating through and never really hitting full-time usage outside of Romeo Dobs, just kind of being parked there on the field. Uh, I think Watson just will be that receiver now. It is what seems most likely to me based on prior usage. He's just had the most play in those sets last year. And of of course, they just paid him the most. But also, whenever he has been in a full-time route share over his career, 13 games above 75% of the routes, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game. He's been the wide receiver six. So re like and of course like everyone says oh but the injuries with Christian Watson like I get all that but really whether it's injuries or the obnoxious like route rotation that Laflur had running there for a couple years. It really is just playing time that has been the only limiting factor on Watson being like a fantasy football superstar. And yeah, because of just how the personnel logic works out where Reed is unlikely to play in two receiver sets and even if he does, it's probably because Matthew Golden can't hack it rather than because they have Watson on the bench. It It's like, yeah, you what conclusion are we left with other than Watson's basically never going to leave the field? He has always been amazing when he's been on the field. Uh, and yeah, that's that's really it to me. So, yeah, he's one of my favorite values in all of drafts right now.
You know, I think you and I can kind of get stuck in this fantasy football bubble a little bit, whereas many people out there in your home league drafts, I think you can take advantage of a lot of almost misnomers of what the Packers have been previously and who Christian Watson is and really get tremendous value of where he's going to go in your home leagues. I mean, even right now on best ball sites, he's going as wide receiver 30 at the end of the fifth round, the five six turn. I still think that's undervalued. And Ryan, it's weird nowadays. I think it's kind of rare for a player to get paid like this. And it can be extremely divisive. And that's exactly what we got here with Christian Watson. And I think it is because of those injuries and missed games. Like again, in 2023, only played nine games. in 2025, 10 games, has never had a season with more than 620 uh receiving yards over seven touchdowns. Whereas you and I saw that contract and we watched him play football last year and we look at the underlying metrics and I know it was his fourth season in the league, but he took a major jump in just in terms of development. And I understand so many of us look at wide receivers and say, "Well, they are who they are after year two or year three." That's really not the case with Christian Watson. They have put in time and effort to make him a complete wide receiver now. And on the field last year, he was a complete wide receiver. Like we all remember the high variance downfield vertical shots that he hit with Aaron Rogers in his rookie season and love those whenever he's been on the field. But last year, the big difference was he got gimmies. You know, like just if we're talking about out routes, 7.7% of his targets prior to last season in the first three years of his career made up of out routes that jumped up to 35%. The A dot was lower. Those are on critical third and fourth down, second and long situations. We got to have it. We got to we got to have someone move the chains. And that was Christian Watson. So now he just attacks multiple areas of the field, every single blade of grass, an offense that we do want pieces of, and finally a a a personnel grouping that is now obvious. Like, am I allowed to say that about the Green Bay Packers now that >> you know, Jaden Reed has barely ever played in two wide receiver sets. He's going to have to probably do that some this year. Matthew Golden, there have been a bit of question marks even if you like the film after his rookie season. The only real tried and true and trusted pass catcher. He's gonna be out there all the time in that Romeo Dobsesque manner is Christian Watson now. And he is like tears above in terms of explosiveness and big playability. So I am again relentlessly drafting one of these names and his name is Christian Watson. Cravings aren't just about nicotine. They're about the habit. The hand to mouth motion oral fixation. The momentary pause when the loop is broken. Cravings spike. Fume replaces your habit with a flavored air fidget device that gives your hands and mouth something to do. Distracting cravings without nicotine, vapor, or batteries. It's simple. It's natural. And honestly, it's kind of genius. Like, there's no nicotine, there's no batteries, there's no vapor. Just a weighted, twisty, fidget friendly tool that gives your hands something better to reach for when cravings show up. I mean, we all have that moment when we crave something. For me, when I'm working, it's snacks. Like, they cannot be around my desk. So, instead, I just have gum laying around to replace my craving. If you vape, grab your fume instead. Especially with flavors like crisp mint and raspberry. So, if you're ready to break the habit, now's a great time to try fume. Right now, when you grab a journey pack, you'll get a free fume topper just for using our code the show. The Fume Topper adds a soft, replaceable, chewable mouthpiece, giving your mouth something safe to chew when cravings hit. So, grab this offer while it's available. So, head to tryfume.com, that's trfum.com, and use code the show to get your free fume topper with your journey pack. Moving on, Ryan. Uh, one more wide receiver and I'm not going to say he's towards the sunset of his career, even if I want to say he's in the sunset of his career, but seeing Mike Evans on a new team in the San Francisco 49ers, I also think leaves some room from and that that like allows us to attack some uncertainty here. So, what do you think Mike Evans 2026 is going to look like?
So, I the way that I kind of put this is when we're when we're looking back on this year of Mike Evans after the season, it it will seem very obvious that that was always how it was going to work out. And it and it can work out in one of two ways. Uh he can be amazing. He can be the best pure like talented receiver that Kyle Shanahan has had since Julio Jones. uh like just massively benefiting from all of these two or fewer wide receiver sets that he never really got to enjoy in Tampa Bay. Uh where he has been what like yeah 36% more efficient from those sets over his career, 34% target per run with two or fewer receivers on the field. Uh when that is like all that Kyle Shanahan has done because he loves using fullbacks so much. uh he of course would would have George Kittle on the field, but if if Kittle's injured early in the year, then a tight end who's not George Kittle on the field, Jake Tongis or whoever, uh if he's using a blocking wide receiver in the F role, if that's going to be just Deebo Samuel, uh like there are a lot of eligible receivers that Shanahan likes putting on the field who are not immediate target earning threats, right? So that that just makes somebody like Mike Evans so much more appealing. It just can create so much more efficiency, like target magnetism for him. He's always run hot on touchdowns every single season of his career. Uh but I would love to see that in a Kyle Shanahan offense essentially. Like the the ingredients are there for this to be a completely special like top five wide receiver season in fantasy. not that different than what we saw with Devonte Adams, but just maybe with even more like more complete production that's not just at the two-yard line, right? So, that that's like one side of it and that's where I fall ultimately with Evans. I do think that that this risk-reward is worth it. But the the other way it could go that will also seem very obvious in hindsight uh is he could tear his hamstring in week three playing next to the electrical substation. Like that that is totally a possible world we could live in. I hope it's not. Uh but that that's really if Evans stays on the field and is healthy, I I am pretty confident he's going to smash. Uh he he's been like top three in all of our separation metrics at fantasy points over each of the past two years. Even though he's been playing through these lower body injuries for a lot of that time. So it's just what in terms of like old guy wide receiver that I'm willing to bet on this year, it's definitely Evans.
Yeah, I can see thousands of people rolling their eyes that we just hyped up Christian Watson and Mike Evans. Uh just, you know, people hate drafting injured players and they've been among the two most injured players over the last few years. I mean, Mike Evans hamstrings go back about five years in terms of giving us concerns on a weekly basis. At the same time, again, I think that's an area where you can take advantage of your league mates doing the exact same thing, not wanting to draft these guys and you playing for upside, you drafting for upside. Because if we get long stretches of the season, 12, 14, 16 games out of both of these players, then the upside is there for them to be really season-defining assets. Uh, as you put it, I mean, again, Evans only ran 16% of his routes with fewer than three wide receivers on the field the past two years in Tampa. Again, the reason why we like Kyle Shanahan being on the field or both Kittle and Tannehill or Luke Ferrell on the field is because then that gets the narrower and narrower target tree to these wide receivers. And Jauan Jennings, which isn't the one-to-one replacement for Mike Evans, by the way, but he was up at 44% uh last season in 2025 in terms of uh routes with two or fewer or excuse me, three or fewer or fewer wide receivers on the field. Um I do expect Samuel to like kind of get that role. I thought he could be the best blocking wide receiver from his class. But, uh, I I just think it's cool when we get someone like Mike Evans in an offense run by Kyle Shanahan because it's almost like a fantasy draft and in Madden is the only way of doing that in the past. And we can have like one final season, one final season for him to like really leave his mark, I think.
Right. So, we've talked all wide receivers so far, but with how there's been so much overlap between the wide receiver and tight end position uh in drafts recently and how young that tight end position is getting across the league. I also feel like Ryan, and you can elaborate more on this, that not only can, you know, these heavier personnel packages enhance a wide receiver season, it can also do that for like alpha receiving types at the tight end position, too.
That's right. And I think the the biggest area to kind of look for here is there are some tight ends that are kind of on the borderline in terms of they're really good receivers and they're like good enough receivers that you just want to play them on every down in line even if they're not like the most amazing blockers because it's a worthy trade-off, right? I I would put Colton Loveland through parts of his rookie season kind of in that bucket. Uh, and I I would put Sam LaPorta through a lot of his uh, career so far kind of in that bucket like they're good enough in line to get away with it. You want them on the field, right? Uh, but what that can sometimes lead to uh, as we saw with Colton Loveland as a rookie and LaPorta at times is they can be kind of borderline in terms of their playing time. Like those guys are much closer to like 70% route share tight ends, right? We really want like 80% 85% in like the Trey McBride area to to get like those super high upside tight end seasons. And I I think that the shift to heavy personnel to more multiple tight end sets, it can really help out those guys that are already amazing receivers that you want on the field anyway. But just having more 12 personnel sets, bringing a second tight end or a third tight end onto the field uh and just so that you are in that heavy personnel, not giving that up uh in terms of the run threat either. It that can just create so much more playing time for them and so many more opportunities. So, case in point, uh, just looking at last year when the Bears were in 13 personnel, one wide receiver, uh, three tight end sets, Loveland was running a route on 98% of those dropbacks, which is awesome. That's exactly what you want. So, if the Bears, after they drafted Sam LaPorta, uh, still have Cole Kmet under contract, I if that's if you're taking that as a signal that they're going to really ramp up the two and three tight end sets, that that can only be amazing for Cole Colton Loveland just because he he's always going to be on the field for them. Like, arguably, that's why they want to do it to keep Colton Loveland on the field even more. Uh, Loveland's efficiency on those plays over 4.66 yards per out run. 53% of the Bears receiving yards on those plays. You could kind of see also where Loveland had his big kind of productive breakout toward the tail end of last season. That was also when the Bears started shifting to a lot more 12 and 13 personnel. of course partly brought on uh by the injuries at receiver, Darnell Mooney's injury but it really stuck with it and like the yeah just the the volume production for Loveland stayed around uh that yeah and that their offseason moves suggest that that's kind of what they want to go into this year doing. So yeah, I'm only left with the assumption or the the conclusion that Loveland just belongs in the elite tight end tier. I I have him ranked pretty close with Trey McBride. I I think it's ridiculous that you were saying earlier that round four is amazing. I agree. Right. The only thing that sucks about round four is there's so many amazing players. I want to draft in it. Like Loveland should be a round three ADP. To me, it's a little absurd to me that he's in round four.
He's at the four-five turn, Ryan. I mean, he's the 46th overall pick, the 10th pick of of the fourth round. There's so much there that that you said. Um, one big question I have for you first, though. So, we haven't had a team, at least this past season, like just totally live out of 12 personnel, right? The number one team last year in in just simply two tight end sets was the Cleveland Browns at 44%. With how the Bears are constructed this year with Colton Loveland, Cole Kmet, and Luther Burton and Darnell Mooney, and really no wide receiver depth after that. Do you think there is like what percentage chance would you give that the Bears finish this season over 50% out of 12 personnel?
Oh wow. I have I haven't really considered giving a percentage to this. I It can't be that high just because we haven't really seen that before uh recently in the NFL, a team being over 50%.
But like I'd give it like a a 25 to 30% chance that that happens. And that's like
insanely exciting. Even even that is like exciting even because even if it's 40% then that's amazing for everything we're saying, right?
Yeah.
And maybe I should even throw in, you know, the the 13 personnel looks, right? Because you bring in Sam LaPorta who like truly is a a run blocker. And this gives you an an opportunity for Colton Loveland to not arguably only be their just best pass catcher overall, but then when you go into two tight end sets, it's him and then Darnell Mooney. Then when you get into 13 personnel, then that is Mooney and Rome competing to be the only wide receiver on the field. And then easily, if not the number one, then it's number two pass catcher on the field being Colton Loveland. Uh I'm so excited for this. I am amp for this. I mean, I I thought coming out of Michigan that Colton Loveland could just be a key cog and define an entire offense's passing game. And we really saw that down the stretch. Uh, it's somewhat uncommon for this to happen in the NFL now, Ryan, but like I'm not gonna ask you for another percentage, but I think the odds are are pretty decent that Colton Loveland just is the best pass catcher on the Chicago Bears this year in terms of yards, in terms of touchdowns, in terms of receptions.
And we're able to get that as a tight end three like you said in in round four. And typically, we'd have to draft that with Travis Kelce in round one or, you know, Brock Bowers in round two.
Yeah, I I will give you a percent. I I'm I'm at like 60 to 65% that that Loveland just leads the Bears in all receiving categories. Yeah, that's that's where I'm at.
Yeah. And look, he really didn't get going last year until what about week six or week seven. The Ben Johnson really took his time getting both Colton Loveland and Darnell Mooney and even Cole Kmet involved until after that bye week. But the underlying metrics, as you said, are simply insane when it's two wide receivers or fewer and especially just one wide receiver uh on on the field. So, I'm I cannot wait for what this offense looks like. And while I think this next off seasonason they'll have to maybe move on from Cole Kmet and then we really just get two tight ends on the field, we should really enjoy this moment of hey the Bears have three legit tight ends on the roster if they all stay healthy and that will only accentuate Colton Loveland even more this season. And I know we're talking about 13 personnel so much and what the Rams if you include the Super Bowl and the regular season had like 20% of their pass attempts out of 13 personnel. Like it's not this gigantic number, but as you're saying, if in those moments you get someone with a 4.6 yards per rout and 53% market share like you're getting of receiving yards in Colton Loveland, then that 20% can win you weeks in fantasy football. It's really that simple.
Yeah. And I do I I will like caveat of course that I I do think 13 personnel specifically three tightons on the field overall. It has been like over discussed like I think it's really just the Rams and Bears capable of doing it uh in a way that makes any sense just with the personnel that they have. So I I don't think that that specifically is going to be like what takes the NFL by storm. But yeah, it it's just it's very team by team. Like I think people are a little too black and white with how they with how they think about this stuff like NFL wide. But yeah, that specifically with the Bears, I'm I'm all in and I'm excited and I think it could really matter.
And I probably should have said this at the top, but this is obvious, but one main reason why teams are are utilizing that is because, you know, these defenses were not honoring 12 personnel as much as they previously did. like they weren't just going to base because of 12 personnel stuff because they thought, hey, our fifth defensive back uh could stick up to your second tight end and we are not worried about, you know, getting run on in those situations. So then they took an extra layer and said, "Okay, actually we're going to add another body onto the field and now force you into these personnel groupings uh that we want you to just in terms of heavier and slower players." Okay. You said you only really believe it with the Rams and the Bears. I think I can make a pitch that the Detroit Lions should be part of that. You you mentioned Sam LaPorta and I don't think it's been an unders discussed topic, but I just want to reiterate that Drew Petting from Arizona uh is now the play caller, the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions. And while the Rams have kind of taken the mantle of being the 13 personnel team, Drew Petting will tell you that over the last two years, he's kind of done it the most, you know, and that was with >> Trey McBride and Tip Ryman, who was a, you know, day two just pure blocking tight end, and then Elijah Higgins. So, this guy has been willing to do it with kind of two lesser tight end talents out there. And then on this team, you now have Sam LaPorta, you have Brock Wright, who kind of fills that blocking role. And then you bring in Tyler Conklin, who's also a viable veteran third tight end. So over the past two seasons, when you combine them, second most passing plays out of 13 personnel, the third most plays overall out of 13 personnel and tied for the most 15 plus yard passing plays out of it with with 28. So, while this team in the past has had multiple wide receivers, and we'll see how much they think about Jameson Williams to live out of 11, uh, if Sam LaPorta is healthy, I think this could be a team that is up there in terms of the three tight end usage.
Yeah, I I agree with everything up to the point of I I don't believe that they're taking Jameson Williams off the field for a third tight end very often, at least. Like, this team is obsessed with Jameson Williams. I every summer I I have to like pull the Jameson Williams quotes from a year ago of just the unhinged things that Dan Campbell uh or anyone on the staff says about him every single summer. Uh it's how they motivate him or whatever, I guess. But yeah, I don't think they're taking him off the field that often for a tight end. But what I do think is going to happen uh is that there's kind of been like some weird quote warfare around this. like it. Anytime I bring up multi-tight end sets for the Lions, people say, "Oh, Dan Campbell said that that was wasn't going to be a thing and that it was only because of Petting's personnel, that's like not really what he said." Like if if you kind of and I did this, I just went back and listened to every interview that like a Lions offensive coach
gave basically uh since combine.
Uh and what what I really got was that they they want to be versatile from week to week. They think they have the personnel to go to heavy sets in some weeks depending on matchup and to be an 11 in other weeks depending on matchup. And I and I think that I think that I would agree with that assessment. They can kind of go wherever they want. And I would also point out that that's kind of what the Rams did last year too. Like they it was not every single week that they were just okay, we're going to be 20% 13 personnel. There were weeks where they were close to 50% and there were weeks where they were close to 0% depending how healthy Adams was, what they thought of the matchup. Like they didn't do it as much uh against the Seahawks. Like there there's all these factors from week to week, but especially from like a baseball lens, that's amazing.
I would if you told me right now like there are going to be five weeks uh scattered throughout the season where Sam Laaporta is actually going to have a 95% route participation rate because they're going to be in heavy sets. Uh and Leaporta has been in absurdly efficient from multi-tight end sets over his career. Uh.7 fantasy points per out run uh ranks behind only Puka Nakua, JSN, Dvonte Adams, and Stefon Diggs among wide receivers over the past two years. then that that's amazing. Like that there's just amazing spike week potential for Sam Laaporta based on this. Uh and as as I was saying earlier, I think if they go to a little more 12, just kind of keep him on the field more, bump him from like 75% of the routes to 80% of the routes, that like makes a big difference. And we've seen that in Leaporta's career splits, too. He's at nearly 16 fantasy points per game in his games above a 75% route share. just he's had a lot of games where he's either had to rotate off a little too much or has been injured and limited. Like if he's playing more, that's amazing. Very similarly as to what we talked about with Christian Watson.
>> This is anecdotal, but maybe a topic for uh an upcoming article for for you, Ryan, because I I I won't dive into it as much, but it has always felt like it's either a Jameson Williams week or a Sam Laora week. And while they're different body types, uh, they kind of can occupy the same exact area on the field where Ben Johnson, you know, would get them in these crossing routes and drag routes kind of against the grain of of everything else. And so, one of those guys was getting those opportunities each week and it wasn't both of them. So, uh, I don't know how I'm drafting tight ends this year. You know, we can talk about the Bowowers and maybe lesser for me McBride, but definitely the Lovelands and and especially the Tyler Warren. And then I really didn't want to draft anyone in that middle area. I am talking myself more and more into Sam Laaporta uh tight end seven overall right now in the ninth round. Now I do want to say that we as a football collective kind of obsess over certain injuries like Malik Neighbors and Bucky Irving and some of these other types and kind of forget about other ones. Sam Laort is coming off of a significant injury, a back injury that as soon as he sustained it last year was immediately placed on injury reserve and they just did not play him anymore. Um, just yesterday he returned to just jogging uh at OTAAS and hopefully in training camp we get more and more positive reports and if we do I would expect Sam Laorta's ADP to climb. I just don't want to say that, oh, this is just a player that, you know, has all these underlying metrics that we absolutely love and, you know, was the best tight end during his rookie season and not talk about this injury that he has dealt with for many, many months. But, uh, at least he seems to be trending on the right path.
>> Yeah, agreed 100%. You got you do. Thanks for mentioning that. Yeah, it it is one of those ones that you kind of forget about that there's like a a a scary quote about once in a while, but that never kind of catches on. It's Yeah, I I've for a while I've wanted to write a whole piece about just like the fantasy football attention economy and the things that like capture our imaginations uh just based on like what the algorithm is showing to all of us all the time and how that like change it does change how we draft players and how we think and talk about.
>> totally. Uh I I don't know what my through line would be there but that yeah it's a huge thing that you just hit on.
>> Well Ryan, if you write it I'll probably ask you to have you on the show. Uh that's what you do like when you write these big bangers uh then you come on an episode uh if you have time. So I I always appreciate it Ryan. Um again I continue to say this every time you come on. Not only do you get better on these like I love having you on these episodes uh you are one of the rising stars I think in the fantasy business that uh I think it's difficult to come up with new angles when we talk and especially write about fantasy football but you find it and how to do it every single time. So, uh, before you got out of here, anything you want to pitch to the people? Anything you want to say that what you're up to?
>> Yeah. Uh, you can follow along with all of my work. Uh, all my written work is on fantasypoints.com. You can find me on x ryanj_he. I always tweet out when I have new work. Uh, and you can find us on YouTube as well. Uh, fantasy points YouTube. We have just launched uh, separate dynasty and baseball channels. I've been doing some drafts with Jacob Sanderson over there. So, that's really cool. Make sure you guys go check those out.
>> The channel loves Jacob. Uh, and so you guys should go and check out every single show that these two guys do together. All right. Thanks so much everyone for watching. We'll be back next week with a secondyear player week, second year breakout. So, we're going to go through quarterbacks and wide receivers and running backs and tight ends. So, be on the lookout for that. Hit subscribe. We'll talk to you'all next time. See?