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February 28th, 2026, 9:45 a.m. Israeli missiles smash into the Ayatollah's compound in Tehran, killing Ali Kamani and most of the country's senior leaders. Moments later, American strikes wipe out missile sites, naval bases, and camps belonging to the IRGC, the regime's most fanatical soldiers. These countries are now at war. But why? Let's take a look at the timeline.
February the 11th, 1979, the day Iran's monarchy, which had been close allies with the US, falls amid the Iranian revolution. Leading the revolutionaries is Roua Hmeni, an Imam who will go on to preach that the US is enemy number one or the great Satan. And Israel, America's closest ally in the Middle East, is enemy number two, the little Satan. Homonyy will become Iran's first supreme leader, hardwiring hatred for America and Israel into his regime. That same regime still rules today.
Another defining moment comes on November the 4th, 1979. The day the Iran hostage crisis begins. Iranian hardliners storm the American embassy in Tehran, taking 66 Americans, diplomats, and civilian workers hostage. For the next 444 days, they will be held by the regime before finally being released. This incident forever poisons US Iran relations, cementing anti-Americanism in Iran and causing America to break off diplomatic ties. That helps explain why Israel, America, and Iran don't get on.
But where do the current tensions stem from? To explain that, we need to skip ahead to August the 14th, 2002, and a warning from NCRI, an Iranian resistance group, that the regime is pursuing a secret nuclear weapons program. This sparks an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency into hidden nuclear facilities. Years later, the agency will conclude that Iran was indeed developing a bomb and had amassed both the technical know-how and enough enriched uranium to make a functioning nuke.
July the 14th, 2015, Barack Obama, then US president, signs the joint comprehensive plan of action, otherwise known as the Iran deal. In return for significant sanctions relief, Iran agrees to limit its nuclear program to peaceful use and agrees to inspections to confirm this. Israel opposes the deal, as do many Americans, saying Iran cannot be trusted to keep up its end of the bargain.
May 8th, 2018, Donald Trump, having won the presidency, pulls out of the Iran deal. >> I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, supports the move. Iran soon begins enriching uranium beyond fuel grade, a key step to building a bomb. Trump vows to do everything in his power to stop the Iranians getting a nuke. That gives you some idea of Americans motivations for war.
But to understand Israel's motivations, we need to move ahead to October the 7th, 2023. Hamas launches the deadliest terror attack on Israel in its history. In the wake of this atrocity, Netanyahu says his country is at war with Hamas, which is backed by Iran. The war soon expands to include Hezbollah and the Houthis, two more Iranbacked groups based in Lebanon and Yemen. Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war against each other for decades. But now that war is spilling out into the open.
October 27th, 2023. Israeli troops and tanks roll into Gaza on a mission to wipe out Hamas and rescue hundreds of hostages taken on October the 7th. Over the next 2 years, the IDF will systematically seize and clear territory of Hamas fighters, demolishing vast swavthes of Gaza along the way. All hostages, including some taken before October 7th, are eventually found. 165 of them alive, 88 sadly deceased. Kamas is also defeated. According to the IDF, 20,000 of its fighters and all of its senior commanders are killed. Though it still exists, the IDF says it is no longer a military force and has been graded to a guerilla terror group. >> The war also came at a heavy cost to civilians in Gaza. Palestinian health authorities said tens of thousands were killed.
With Hamas nullified, Israel turns its attention to Hezbollah. September 17th, 2024, 3:30 p.m. local time. Operation Grim Beeper, an attack using booby trap pages carried by Hezbollah fighters, kills 30 and injures up to 4,000. Among the injured is Iran's ambassador to Lebanon. 12 civilians are also killed. 6 months before the attacks, Hezbollah had switched from using phones to pages as it was viewed as more secure. Israel found out and secretly sold pages to the terror group that were loaded with explosives. A message sent to the pages caused them to detonate.
September 27th, 2024, an Israeli airirst strike on Beirut kills Hassan Nasallah, the figurehead of Hezbollah, along with dozens of his top commanders. An Iranian mole allegedly tipped off the Israelis that Nasra was meeting with his military top brass in person because their pages were out of action. Eight Israeli F-15s armed with six 2,000lb JDAM bombs each then took off to bomb the bunker where the meeting was taking place. In total, 100 missiles and bombs were fired, landing roughly once every 2 seconds for 3 and 1/2 minutes.
October the 1st, 2024, Israel moves troops into southern Lebanon on a mission to wipe out Hezbollah rocket sites that have been firing into its territory. Over the next 3 months, the IDF repeats its seize and destroy tactics from Gaza in southern Lebanon. By the time a ceasefire comes into effect in January the following year, Hezbollah has also ceased to be much of a fighting force. A Hezbollah commander said 5,000 of its fighters were killed and 13,000 wounded. Between 2,000 and 3,000 civilians were also reported dead, according to local health authorities.
With Iran's two largest proxy groups out of action, Israel turns its sights on Thran. October the 6th, 2024. 100 Israeli warplanes carry out air strikes on Iran in retaliation for Iranian air strikes on Israel several weeks prior. Right now, the Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran. Among the targets are Iranian anti-air and ballistic missile sites, though casualties are light because Israel tells Iran where it would hit in advance. Though an escalation in fighting, Israel and Iran are now directly attacking each other rather than going through proxies. This strike is more of a test for what is to come.
June 13th, 2025, Israel launches far more wide-ranging attacks on Iran, which will become known as the 12-day war. >> This morning, the IDF began preemptive and precise strikes targeting the Iranian nuclear program. We have no choice. >> Among the targets are Iranian nuclear scientists, nuclear enrichment sites, IRGC commanders, and members of the regime. Iran responds by firing 500 ballistic missiles and a thousand drones back at Israel, killing 30 civilians and wounding 3,000. The United States initially responds by flying air defense missions for Israel, but is eventually persuaded to join the bombing. B2 Spirit bombers armed with 30,000 lb massive ordinance penetrator bombs are sent to destroy Iran's most secure nuclear site at Fordo. Also bombed are the less secure but no less important nuclear sites at Isvahan and Atans. President Trump calls the strikes a success and says they have obliterated Iran's nuclear program, though some doubts are raised over this claim. He then pressures Netanyahu to end the bombing with a ceasefire taking effect on June the 24th.
We're now very close to the quickfire events that sparked the current war, which began on December the 28th, 2025. Iranian protesters fed up with the deteriorating economic situation in the country take to the streets to demand an end to the regime.
January 6th, 2026, Donald Trump tells Iran to leave the protesters alone, saying the US is locked and loaded and ready to go if they are harmed. Starting on January 8th and continuing into January 9th, an internet blackout in Iran signals the start of one of the worst massacres in the country's history. Over the course of 48 hours, Ayati Ali Ham orders his security forces to violently suppress the protests, resulting in the deaths of more than 30,000 civilians.
January the 11th, Trump again takes to social media to urge Iranians to keep protesting, vowing that help is on its way. January the 26th, the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier arrives in the Middle East, but by this time protests have been crushed. Trump is thought to have considered strikes on Iran around this time, but was talked out of it by allies, Israel included, who were worried the US didn't have enough firepower to stop the Iranian shooting back.
February the 6th, Steve Witoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's envoys, begin negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program in the hopes of ending the crisis diplomatically. There is a lot of talk, but very little action.
February the 11th, Netanyahu travels to the White House for talks with Trump. We don't know what they discussed at this meeting, but in hindsight, this was likely the moment war planning got underway.
February the 13th, Trump dispatches a second aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, to the Middle East. Beginning on February 16th and continuing into February 17th, hundreds of US fighters and dozens of midair refueling jets fly from the US to the Middle East via Europe, joining forces already there.
February the 26th, more talks between the Americans and Iranians end with nothing to show. February the 27th, the Gerald R. Ford arrives in the Eastern Mediterranean within striking range of Iran. British and American diplomats are told to leave the country. When you looked at what? Look, we have the greatest military anywhere in the world. There's nothing close. I'd love not to use it, but sometimes you have to.
February the 28th, 9:45 a.m. That brings us full circle to the strike that killed Ham, the first of Operation Roaring Lion, the Israeli bombing campaign. >> Today, we launched Operation Roaring Line. The US bombing campaign, Epic Fury, got underway simultaneously, hitting Iran's military and missiles, blunting its ability to strike back. Donald Trump, in a speech announcing the start of operations, made it clear that targets also included the regime and its nuclear sites. Within the first 12 hours, the US and Israel carried out a combined 900 strikes. In retaliation, Iran fired more than 400 missiles and hundreds of drones at nine countries, including US bases like Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, which was badly damaged.
Which brings us up to the present day. Very quickly, this conflict has escalated across the Middle East and beyond. How it ends is anyone's guess. Iran shows no sign of surrendering, and Israel and America aren't slowing down their bombing campaigns either. Much remains uncertain, but one thing is clear. The Middle East that emerges from this conflict will not be the same as the one that entered it. That's all we have time for. Don't forget to hit like and subscribe and watch out for the next episode of Timeline.