Transcription
Today we saw the worst day of 2026 when it comes to markets. Every sector was actually down, and this means that it was a sell everything type of session.
But what does that actually mean for us as traders and investors? Well, we now need to have a look at where are the next levels of major support and, more importantly, what is actually going on underneath the hood, as the first time in a long time we're seeing bonds starting to show signs of distress.
On top of all of this, we've got the charts that you need to be paying attention to, as Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve said a couple of things that have sent yields up. And more importantly, the US dollar, the world's biggest hedge, is starting to look potentially bullish. So, is this a race for cash? And is now that not trash? Let's take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos to break down everything that we need to know right now.
Guys, don't go anywhere. That was a big day, and we have a lot to discuss. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atkison. If you love markets like we do, then remember to subscribe and smash that like button. Today, we'll be talking about everything from the macro to, of course, what Wall Street's been up to and maybe more importantly than all of this, the key levels and charts that you need to be watching.
But let's kick things off here with what happened during the session. And it's more of what we always talk about when it comes to these press conferences. It's always about what Jerome Powell seems to say, or the Fed chair, and it always seems to be that 30 minutes after the official cash announcement that we seem to see the mass volatility. And Blue Curti broke it down here very well, basically going through each point and what Jerome and what the Fed was saying, and of course, what ended up happening to the market. But basically, it was all sending it down.
Some of the main points, of course, were that we weren't necessarily going to be seeing stagflation at this point. A lot of you guys are actually arguing in the comment section that it's going to be deflation, which is an interesting target and concept, and we'll talk about that more soon. But also, it comes back to how high do these oil prices stay and for how long.
So let's take a look at why this is important. Well, of course, the dot plot, but more importantly, what's going on with the number of expected rates. Well, that's changed drastically. And Duality Research actually goes and tracks all of this, as do we often. And it really has changed in 2026 from having multiple rate cuts to basically having none, based in, or maybe one on the best case. This is the big change that's happened, and around the world, we're seeing this go through. Australia, where I'm from, we've already seen two rate hikes this year, and one of them is of course expected just in a couple of months to be continued.
So why is this important? Well, it's putting stress on the bonds market, on the debt markets around the world. And this is the type of thing that often happens in late cycles. To make matters even more volatile, it's happening in a midterm election year. And you guys know all about that. Midterm election years tend to have potentially up to two dips in them, and they can be very, very volatile, especially heading into the election itself.
So here's a chart from Grant Hawkridge over on X, and it kind of shows something that I think is very, very important, and that is that we've started to see basically bond yields starting to rise up once again. He actually went through and had a look at when you see bond yields rising, that is you get a red shading, which we're in currently right now. The actual annual return of the S&P is not very good, guys, 7%. So when bonds flinch, this is why we always talk about it, you really need to be paying attention.
And it kind of gets a little bit worse than that because there's also this chart here from Theory Bogart over on X as well. I retweeted this one over at FX Evolution if you want to give him a follow. And what this is, is of course an old chart that came through, and it's a surge in energy prices suggests high probability of recession. Now, funnily enough, this didn't work last time because, of course, this is actually a chart taken from 2022. And you can see here that we headed into this level, but we weren't able to move down to a bear market. Yes, we saw oil spiking, but of course, we didn't end up in a bear market. We ended up just saving ourselves. And this is why so many people thought that 2022 was going to be a bear market.
What did happen, though, is when we had oil spiking up like this, obviously we saw the markets get sold off, and we almost entered into that technical bailout. Now, a lot of people will argue this is a lagging indicator. Sometimes it's a little bit in front, sometimes it's a little bit behind. But I do think that it is worth considering that when oil has these massive shocks in it, we do need to be considering structure moving forward. And remember, really, that 60 to 100 days post the geopolitical event or post the oil event, we tend to see whether markets have bottomed or whether markets continue to go down. We've got a chart on that soon.
Another one here, breadth. We just talked about the idea that no sector really of the majors was up over the last session. That's what we call a sell everything market or a capitulation. And that doesn't happen that often. In the last couple of months, we've usually seen certain sectors fall off, technology, financials, those types of things. But this was actually a sell everything day, and that was an interesting one because of course breadth now is falling below 65. And Blue Curti went through and had a look at this, and you can see here that while the stats aren't necessarily shocking moving forward, it is something that you want to be considering.
So let's take a look together at the performance of markets during supply disruptions. Obviously, we know we're in one. We don't know how long it's going to last for, but generally speaking, that 60 to 100 days does tend to be the average when it comes to possibly going to the bottom. Now, why is this important? Well, of course, we're only at the beginning of what this may be. And in previous cases, you can see some markets have dropped a lot more. Now, has it gone up to 15%? Yeah, in two of the cases, we actually saw markets fall this much. I think it's worthwhile considering this as we go and head towards one of our big support levels in terms of technicals, which is the weekly 50 moving average. You guys know this is a huge deal, and we've talked many times about how once we broke the 20, we thought that we would bounce back up to, of course, the 20 itself and then potentially come back down to the 50. But the 50 will really mark whether this market is trying to turn into more of a bearish, more of a serious kind of pullback, or whether it's going to hold levels. Because remember where the 50 is, which we'll see soon, is a massive support line on the technical charts.
To make matters even more volatile this week, we're also going into what we call quadruple witching. I've got the updated options flow in just a moment for you guys, but basically you can see here that we have quite a lot of options activity often happening on the event day itself, which is Friday, and of course one day before, which is the Thursday. So, make sure to stay aware and risk-managed when it comes to this week because the levels are becoming more clear when it comes to put walls, and we'll talk about those. Let's just say one of them is that level we've been discussing quite a few times. We'll share it soon.
Let's have a look here at IV. We know that there was quite a lot of transaction volume coming through in clusters. Could it be that they were trying to sell out? This is usually Wall Street and large players. Basically, a couple of massive trades coming through IVV, which is a huge S&P ETF. And then since then, the market has of course dropped off, and that makes a bit of sense to what we've been looking at when it comes to the charts and when it comes to, of course, the structure itself.
Let's have a look at some of the maybe good case scenarios at the moment, though. Duality Research has been doing a great job over on X and really tracking Bitcoin ETF flows. And you guys know I'm a fan of looking at flows because where the flows are going, it's usually do what they do, not what they say. And cumulative flows actually improved recently on Bitcoin. And although it dropped over the last 24 hours, there are a couple of pretty interesting signs. In fact, the 30-day Bitcoin ETF flow has rolled from being negative overall to being actually positive. And this is a fairly big deal because, of course, this could show us not only base structure happening at that previous demand, but also real demand starting to come through. And we'll be tracking this a little bit more when it comes to Bitcoin. And we did just see it come back to its anchored VWAP.
Couple other things to note. Now, we heard, of course, Jerome Powell say it's probably not going to be stagflation, but there is a case to be said that we do tend to see kind of a flow through of metals. And if you've been watching this channel for a long time, you'd know that years ago, we were loving gold. Um, this person here, Tavi Costa, was also loving gold. So, shout out to Tavi, um, from Aurora Capital. And of course, we saw here, um, you know, movements up in, of course, gold and silver index. Then, we saw copper, which has struggled a lot over the last 24 hours, by the way. And then of course, we've seen energy stocks going up.
Now, a lot of people have been looking at uh healthc sorry, agriculture and all of the farm kind of stocks. And funnily enough, they've actually been moving for a little while now, but it does kind of usually go through that line. And I thought this was an interesting updated chart here of the synergy between food and agricultural prices and gasoline prices. And you can see here that, of course, when gas goes up, uh, yeah, usually you do end up getting, of course, food and agricultural prices going up as well. Is this going to put a lot of stress on the economy? I think it will. What do you guys think in the comments down below? Are people going to really be struggling with this? This could actually mean that food is going up on the shelves, and that could be, you know, disastrous for many people, unfortunately.
Let's now take a look at the S&P and the key levels. So, first up, we know that of course, a little while ago, we got a 20-50 cross. Wildly considered in technical analysis terms to be a very significant break, uh, towards the downside. Now, on top of that, we've obviously seen some other pretty interesting zones. We've got markets that, of course, have now fallen to a lower low and markets that have respected a couple of key levels.
Now, if we add an advanced decline line, um, which we'll do here. So, if you ever want to put one of these in, you just go advanced decline inside of your TradingView platform, and you can add it in there, guys. You can see here that the overall stocks are mostly in decline now. The first time in a long time. You can see it's been pretty consistently up with a couple of slowdowns, but actually, this is probably the worst we've seen. So again, this market is not like the others when it comes to, uh, whether it's looking good or not.
Now, the reason we're paying attention to this moving forward is this is where the weekly 50 moving average is, and this is where the previous support is. Now, if you know your technical analysis, you would know that if you break to a lower low here, you're technically doing what we call a change of trend. And that on a weekly can matter a lot. So, what happens at the 6,500 zone is going to be super important.
I've updated the options high levels for you guys, high-low levels for you guys today. We actually end up hitting pretty much the low level of the previous session. Just goes to show these daily option levels are very interesting as dynamic kind of supports and resistances. And funnily enough, the next session is sitting very close to that 6,500 low. So, very interesting zones and of course, a lot of pressure being put on this market.
Let's take a look at the options flow, though. And this is where you know into this week, expiration of course being a massive one. Uh, we have to look at the levels. This is quadruple witching. Tons and tons of money is at stake, and we seem to be getting two strikes coming through. Come as no surprise to you guys that 6500 and 6600 continuously show up, and it's kind of more of what we would expect. Basically, 6500 to 6600 is where there's a little bit of technical support. There also seems to be a lot of puts there. So if the markets do end up breaking under 6,500, it could get very dangerous very quickly. So you got to be careful there. But at this stage, that is where we're starting to see a huge amount of activity. And activity can mean structure. And structure can mean, of course, the patience react don't predict concept that we teach and talk about on these videos.
Now, let's have a look here at the Triple Qs. Basically, it's similar. We're getting a lot of 580s, 575s. Not as clear as the S&P, but certainly worthwhile looking at. And Nvidia, of course, it's still all about 170. We're actually not seeing semiconductors getting hit up as much as the other markets. Uh, so I think that's important because semiconductors is still the backbone of the US economy at this stage.
We've got some more updates for our special weekend show as well, talking about some macro stuff I think you guys will enjoy. Subscribe for that. It's going to be special. Make sure to check it out.
All right, so what else is happening? Tesla, uh, big deal here. Of course, 380. You guys can see that we have kind of one of these key zones, uh, moving forward for 380. No news on Tesla really. We'll look at the chart soon, but it's probably not the main stock you want to be looking at. S&P, US dollar, I'd say those are the two majors at this point along with bonds.
Gold. Yeah, a lot of people think that gold should be going up. As we've talked about volatility, you know, we've been a big fan of gold, but when that VIX came in and it got crushed, the idea of a rally was pretty clear. The idea of a drop after that, yeah, that's the problem. Once you get this volatility, it becomes a little bit harder. Anyway, 450 and just around kind of the current price seems to be where the puts are holding for now, but it's not as clear as some of the other charts.
Ibit, on the other hand, yeah, this is Bitcoin. It did struggle to get through, of course, that 43 zone and has fallen off. This one is probably back to anchor VWAP, which we'll look at soon.
All right, let's now go through the lead indicators. So, of course, Jerome Powell kind of put a spanner in the works. A lot of you guys are going to be looking like Thanos, click like that, guys, and everything went down. It's the Jerome Powell effect. Is he having? He's just doing this because he's, he's going to be gone soon. But, uh, either way, it did happen, and of course, yields have broken to the upside. So both the 2-year yield broke out, and the 10-year yield, often considered the most important one, that's getting back close to those highs. And we're kind of seeing this happen everywhere.
I'll just show you guys here. If you look at the Australian, uh, yields, this is the Australian, uh, yields. Look at them go, guys. Like, we've got serious problems here. Uh, and we've already seen, uh, rate hikes coming through. So, this could put pressure on, of course, the bonds market. Some ways to look at bonds, high yield junk. Obviously, you want to be considering that. Also, if we remove kind of the yield component from it, uh, by using something like IEF, then what we end up getting is we kind of get this idea that if we break to this upside, we're really starting to see risk. Now, I've inversed it a little bit here just so you can see visually, but if that breaks to the upside, again, it's one of those critical levels where you're starting to see risk really coming back into these markets from the bond side.
Another one that we want to be looking at is the BofA high yield spreads, and they have actually spiked back to new highs. So, this is a fairly critical one. We obviously, uh, have been tracking this, and that just made a higher high, which basically means, yeah, the risk is actually in the markets at this stage from the bonds perspective. Whenever you get these spiking, it does usually say there's risk, and that's why, of course, that weekly 50 is going to be so important.
The VIX to spike back up. Not much to say about this. It's pretty normal for VIX to spike, then secondary spike. That has happened in the past. And I'd always encourage you guys, go and do some research on that. Such an interesting phenomenon.
But I think the chart that matters at the moment is, of course, the race for cash. Now, remember, everyone said cash was trash. Everyone said the dollar is dead. And everyone said that it's demonetization. All of a sudden, the dollar looks pretty kind of good. Woff style base. Obviously, critical level at 130 here. If we see a break to the upside here, guys, well, that could of course be incredibly significant to to what's going on.
Now, if you do hear random background news, uh, background sounds, apologies for that, guys. I'm trying to get this one out while I'm traveling, um, to make sure that you're up to date because, of course, these are important times in the markets. But this is an interesting synergy somewhere around here. This 180-130, I think that's going to kind of line up with that 6550-6600 kind of area for S&P. So we need to be very, very careful about these breakouts if they occur. It can start to create what we call a cascade or waterfall effect.
When it comes to oil, it's still sitting around $100 a barrel. Not that much movement of it on it. Obviously, it's moved percentage-wise, but it's still kind of hovering around the zone. So it's a really tough chart to look at. But we do need to look at the backbone. Is semiconductors still above 370, 377? Yes, they are. So that's of course encouraging in terms of coming into the next earnings.
What about gold? A lot of people think it should go up. It's coming into the box now of interest, but it hasn't created structure. As we often say, patience is the key. So we want to be looking at patience here, and we haven't really liked gold and silver charts recently because they've been a little bit tough to read due to the fact that the volatility's coming into them. And you can see here, support is going to be a major level for us to watch.
Nvidia still above 170. Again, semiconductors are holding for now. And Chinese stocks, while they have sold off the last day, actually still holding overall better than the US market. And this is an interesting phenomenon. But remember, if we drop some of these key levels, such as 24,800, it could be like everything kind of is selling across the world, and we must be paying attention.
Russell 2000 hasn't really found what I would call technical support yet. I also think it's worthwhile watching some of the kind of hyperbubbles of the world, such as the Kospi. You can see here why semiconductors are holding. This is basically all on tech and all on hardware stuff. So there's clearly a differential between what was actually sold over the last 24 hours and what wasn't.
But the big things are key supports. If we hit a 24,000 on the NASDAQ, if we hit a 6,500 on the S&P, these levels are often where you start to see structural base into a quadruple witching event. Volatility can occur. So, will we hit the 50 weekly? Is it going to be similar to last time? These are the types of questions we want to ask as technical analysts and, of course, market investors and traders.
So, these are the some key levels I think that you want to be looking at on the charts and paying attention to when it comes to Ethereum. What's going on there? Well, it did break to the upside, kind of hit a mini resistance, and then of course, it's dropped back down. I quickly anchored VWAP the low. It also is around the daily 20, and we kind of hit back into that level, which is where I would usually expect some structure to start forming, hopefully on the smaller time frame charts. It's similar to Bitcoin as well. We're starting to see that kind of structure appear on these charts as well.
So guys, there's a little bit going on here. There's actually quite a lot of volatility in these markets, but whenever there's VIX, whenever the VIX goes above, you know, a 25, a 20 kind of two, 25 level, you want to start bringing your pairs in and start going, which ones matter? S&P 500, US dollar, bonds, and what's going on with the bonds market. And of course, then we're looking for structure. But really, it does come back to go to the basics, go to the S&P because that tends to be the best in terms of the technical charts.
Do we have some put walls? Yeah, it looks like we've got some major levels. We've got quadruple witching. If you enjoyed today's video, please remember to subscribe and smash that like button. Follow us over on X as well. Uh, check out our courses if you want to learn more about what we do and how we kind of analyze these markets in a data-objective way, which I think is very important, especially in the world of AI. You remember, one of your edges right now, guys, is to understand human psychology and to understand how that interprets in the charts. Why do we see things sometimes before the news picks them up? As we say, if it's in the press, it's in the price. It's because we see it in the charts and we see it in the flows.
So already, we're starting to get this sign here that if we drop certain levels, the bonds market may be actually flinching. It's a totally different market to every other year, guys. This is one where financials are now the worst performer of the year. It's incredibly rare. Doesn't happen that often. And when it happens near the top, and we haven't even changed a trend, that makes it in a special case.
Join us for more in the next couple of videos. And I hope you have a great day. Stay safe out there, guys. Thank you so much. And remember to give the videos a like and, of course, set those alerts. Bye for now.