Transcription
Yeah.
Heat.
Warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risks and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and we've got an emergency update video. Now, the first thing to note, okay, is there are never any emergencies on this channel, right? We do not behave like everyone else out there in the markets. We do not react with emotion or urgency even when we do get massive liquidation cascades. Okay? So, if you feel annoyed by the clickbait, then know this, right? That's on you. That's a you problem because you should not be able to be clickbaited or panicked or emotional over a couple of liquidations, right? Let's be honest, okay? So on this channel, we're going to keep doing us. And that means we're going to keep taking things one day at a time. We're not going to allow one single red candle, no matter how big it may be, influence our decision making or emotions. And we're going to continue to just let the cycles guide us. We're going to continue to stick to the plan until major invalidations are hit. And so if you are feeling panicked, just know this. I am not. Okay? I'm going to continue to chill. Going to continue to try to be as professional as possible in my approach to markets. And we all have to kind of accept that as scary as this might sound and as quickly as the sideline bears that have missed or doubted this whole move want to come out and say I told you so. The reality is we could very easily reverse the entire move next week. Okay? And since that's the case, there's no real sense in getting upset about this just yet. Okay? Let's at least give the market the benefit of the doubt for another week and see what happens.
So that's the first thing, right? There are no emergencies. The second thing is there's no deep dive this weekend either. For those of you that know me pretty well, you know that I'm not the best sleeper in the world. I woke up at 3:00 in the morning and my body just says, "That's it, Camel. That's all you're getting, bro." So, I went for a dog walk on the beach, took the car for a dash on the way down there. That was nice cuz the roads were empty. I'm three coffees deep and it is currently 6:00 in the morning. And at the same time, like, the government is shut down. There's no new data. There's no changes whatsoever. So, is there any point in doing the deep dive? I don't think so. I thought people would appreciate me kind of walking you through how I'm looking at this current liquidation cascade and that kind of thing. I'll make a level three members video later today as always. And as of next week, we will actually do a deep dive again. If nothing else, we'll have some inflation data to talk about and we'll be a bit closer to figuring out whether or not this is indeed the mother of all shakeouts before the moon mission to brand new alltime highs across the board or whether or not this is the start of the end. Right now, spoiler alert, I don't think this is the start of the end. I actually think this is a quick shakeout that's going to very quickly resolve to the upside. So, I'm going to show you kind of why that's still my current lean.
Just before we get into some charts, I wanted to quickly address moving stop losses up because I have had this in the YouTube comments. I've had this on Twitter. I have had this on Slice. I've had this in the members section. People keep saying to me, "Oh, given the current price action, is it time to start choking stops up?" And I very consistently said, "I don't really like to move my stop losses up. I much prefer to use trend line breakdowns to get me out of trades and leave the stop where it is because the stop is the stop for a reason. The stop is where the risk is managed and the stop most importantly is the invalidation for the trade. Some of you may be okay with choking your stop up and being taken out nice and early on this move, but I should think a lot of people that have choked their stops up over the past few days because they were getting nervous about having to give back some profit have likely found themselves taken out of trades now that they actually would rather still be long inside of. So to each their own, there's no right or wrong way of doing it. I'm not saying that, you know, it's completely wrong to move stop losses up. I'm just saying for me, I like to try to capture the bigger and broader trends. And the only way I can do that is to be willing to give the trade the space to breathe, right? To be willing not to keep choking the stop up and getting taken out on every kind of big red candle that shows up. And so, I think this is a pretty good illustration of why I like to just leave the stop to do what it's going to do. And then, if I need to cut the trade because it looks broken or damaged or like it's reversing, I can always do that manually.
Anyway, let's deal with this liquidation. Okay, in the past 24 hours, we've seen almost 20 billion liquidated, which I think is a record. And apparently it's over one and a half million individual traders completely blown which is pretty crazy. And I must admit I wasn't really paying attention Friday. I was thinking what's the worst that could happen if I have the afternoon off, right? And uh apparently I wasn't the only one. I think a lot of people kind of turned their back on the market and maybe that's why this happened. So taking a quick look at the Bitcoin chart, we haven't yet failed any cycles, okay? But this was the kind of look I was hoping to avoid. I didn't really want to see this occur. And of course it begs the question, doesn't it? Is this the making of a Dalai Lama or have we just started to distribute here for Bitcoin? For anyone that doesn't know what the Dalai Lama pattern is, it's this old Bitcoin meme. I'll show you this right here in which we get a big liquidation to the downside and it ends up muing Greek letter MW is way out. So, if that's what we're going to get, of course, it would speak to this being the start of the Greek letter mu and then we're going to do something like this and bump and move our way up. So, is that what's happening? Did we just have a big liquidation cascade that will soon be reversed to the upside having shaken everyone out or is this the start of the end? Now I know a lot of people want draw conclusions here. A lot of people want me to give you a full drawn conclusion here. But the truth is nobody knows. Okay? So we just have to first of all trust the cycles. If the cycles haven't failed then we don't need to be concerned. That's the number one thing. And the other thing is we have to give the market the space to give it a chance to mw its way out of here, right? To dalai llama its way out of here. So, we'll figure out that bit over the coming, let's say, week or so.
Some of you were quick to point out if you were using the indicator, okay, the I bit, this is the IBIT ETF was right inside of the window for a swing. So, we'll probably get a swing and a reversal and a move off from here because the cycles are kind of supporting that at least from the IBIT ETF standpoint. And some people were telling me that certain alts are down 60 to 80%. Which sounds extremely inorganic, doesn't it? To have them just drop 60 to 80% in a single candle. I think ADA was down over 60%. This XRP wick is absolutely gnarly. Now, I'm not really an altcoin guy, as you know, but I've got XRP and Ethereum here just because they're the top two and three, right? And I mean, this was a 73% wick on the Binance exchange for XRP. I mean, that is pretty gnarly. And to me, that doesn't really speak to organic price action. This speaks much more to running everyone's stops before potentially running it back turbo to the upside. And if you've been doing this any length of time at all, you'll probably know that when things like this show up, you often get deja vu. You draw on parallels from your past experience. And for me, as soon as I saw this wick after the initial shock of me thinking, oh my goodness, how on earth did it do that, right? 73% downside in a single that's probably about 15minute candle. I haven't checked. Yeah, like this is 45 minutes. 73% in 45 minutes, right? That's pretty wild. You can already see here, right? This is already taking on the Dalai Lama type approach. So, I think we got to give this market a little bit of space cuz I do think it's probably not going to be as bad as a lot of people think it is. But like I was saying, anyway, I got deja vu here. The first thing that came to my mind was how similar this wick was to 2017, right? Where we had this range. We ran on all the stops and again in a single wick. We went down something like 98% on this occasion, okay? Or 99% for XRP only to then turbo reverse and go on an absolute moon mission, right? About 115,000% to the upside. Now, I'm not obviously saying 115,000% to the upside's coming this time around. I'm just saying sometimes right before big moves occur, they run absolutely every man and his dog stops so they can load up at the lows, okay? Take all the potential overhead sellers out before they then run it to the top. Because if they don't run everyone's stops here, okay, then all of those people can put sellside pressure on it as it starts to moon. So, they need to clear all the books out first so that there's no sellers on the way up. and that's the only way they can help grease this thing to the upside. And I don't know if this is the case, but it just feels like it. It just feels a lot to me like somebody said, run everyone's stops and then turbo reverse it. And what better way to clear the books, what better way to clear the sentiment than to have a 73% wick like this on Binance. So, I do wonder if just like here, we got that wick before the moon. Have we at the hard right edge got a wick before the moon? And I should say as well, this is not a shill for XRP specifically. I'm just saying XRP was the first kind of deja vu chart where I've seen this before. I thought this would be the best illustration. But it kind of feels to me like if your altcoin looks like this, if your altcoin has a big wick on it, then it probably is about to do the same thing. That's kind of what I'm thinking here. I'm thinking this is inorganic price action and will probably reverse via a Dalai Lama as it often does in this crypto space. Hence the meme, right? I'm thinking this is what's coming over the next week or two. Now, of course, there's an invalidation, right? If we don't print a Greek letter mu on all the charts, then I'm wrong about this. But like I said, you know, we kind of got to give the market the space to figure out what it wants to do here because for all we know, there is this. And if you really think about it, if they just liquidated a million and a half traders, they run everyone's stops. They've convinced everyone the top is in. All the bears are going to come out here saying, "I told you so." Well, there's no one left to settle, right? So, that kind of suggests to me that the path for least resistance is probably higher here.
Also, one more thing to note about this wick, and like I said, I got dja vu. I think some of the reason I got deja vu with this back in 2017 was because if I put it on the weekly chart, look where this wick occurred. This wick occurred just about four weeks. Yeah, about a month away from the ultimate top. So if this is the weekly candle here, then another four weeks puts us out where sometime around the middle of November, okay, for this thing to fire off and print a top and then that would kind of give us a month 36 topish maybe for Bitcoin or something like that. Maybe Bitcoin goes first and this goes slightly later. But my point is simply that I don't think it's as bad as a lot of people think it is yet. I think it could easily become bad, but I'm just not convinced that this is how the market ends. This is how the bull market ends.
Ethereum, I think, is holding up relatively well, right? It's just come all the way back to this trend line support. I haven't redrawn this or anything like this. Yellow squiggle now looks like it's pretty much in play, doesn't it? And therefore, the yellow squiggles is probably going to remain undefeated, right? And we'll continue to climb higher. Now, I still don't think we're going to get 10K ETH and 10K plus ETH, but I do think we could get six, seven, 8K here. Seems like we're missing that final leg to the upside. So, kind of expecting the yellow squiggle to be right here. Again, I don't think we can really get super bearish here when all we've done is just come back into trend line support and so far held it right now. Break down and then we can start to say, okay, we're breaking structure, we're breaking major support and that would probably not be a good sign. But so far, we haven't really done anything that makes me say, well, that's alarming, right? So, let me know what you think, right? Is this the wick before the moon? Is it déja vu? Are we repeating 2017 across the board? Not just with XRP. I'm just using XRP as an example, but you know, have we got something like this? This is on log. You can see how bad this was, right? If we get a pump from here, it kind of makes sense to me. It just makes sense that, like I said, you clear the books, you get all the sellers out the way, and then that gives you no overhead supply so that you can actually get the blowoff top in in full force.
Total 2 is an interesting one. A lot of people said this fractal was impossible and we did indeed deviate to the upside as you can see here. We even got a marginal higher high but at the hard right edge it looks almost like again it's threatening to do some stuff that not many people were ready for. Now again there's no trend line break yet. Okay, it's actually right into support. So we can't really draw any conclusions and say this is damage. Doesn't look great, right? But this again could very easily be the start of the Dalai Llama out of here. Okay. And you would think if I'm right about the whole XRP and Ethereum moving higher, where is it here? If we've got some more upside here and we've got some more upside across some of these alts, you would think that at least some of these alts can drag some of these indices higher, right? But again, my point remains and it's been the same point the entire time is like if you're an altcoiner, you must have a level on the chart where you can manage a risk around because if we do ally Llama from here, fine. Okay. And if your alt starts to stage a big recovery, fine. But if what happens here is this, okay, and your alt is breaking support in here, then you do have to have an area on the chart where you say, "Okay, I'm out. I'm out until we at least get a repair to the upside, right? You've got to have that. Otherwise, you're at risk at this thing going to zero." Now, again, it's not me saying we are going to zero. It's just me saying you only have two choices in markets, right? You can either draw some area on the chart where you say if we trade below there, I'm going to cut my position and manage risk. Or you can not do that. And then if these things eventually move to the downside, you risk losing 100% of your capital, right? But again, if we're being honest, whilst this fractal looks a bit eerie, okay, at the moment, we do not have a trend line breakdown. What we have is a perfect touch of support and potentially a Dalai Lama on our way out of here. So again, I don't think it's the end of the world just yet. For Bitcoin, we certainly have no failed cycle just yet.
Now, this doesn't look great. Okay, I really didn't want to see a look like this because it kind of speaks to that sneaky distribution top, doesn't it? But so far it's not the end of the world if we're being 100% honest. We've still very much got to tell that to the bond market going on when we look at the yields. Okay. So that means more rate cuts are coming. It means that the yields are going to come off. And remember when the yields come off it typically means we've got to go and find yield somewhere outside of the risk-free rate which typically means yields coming off is bullish for risk assets. So this should help us to see a little bit more upside in risk over the coming weeks. We've also got a Dixie that may have just printed its final lower high before rolling over and breaking down from this legacy support. I still think it maybe needs to set a trap to the downside here, get that inversion in the 3-ear cycle low, and then we can set up for a deflationary upside move. And again, if this thing can indeed just roll over here and get the inversion, then that should catalyze major upside into year end as well. Gold didn't really budge on this entire move, did it? And neither did silver. So, that's pretty interesting. We can see the miners as well. Some of them staged some big green, excuse me, big red candles, right? But they're still holding support. Nothing is actually damaged just yet. Even Newmont right here, like I was thinking this is going to be a short setup soon, and it might become Monday. But at the moment, I can't really sell anything that hasn't broken down, right? And then the stock market has broken a couple of trend lines, but only on one candle. So again, we can't really draw any conclusions from this just yet. Start to gap down on Monday, and we can entertain something else is going on. But for all we know, all of this is just a quick run, a quick panic shakeout, and then what we're going to see is this whole thing reverse next week. So, we'll see how it goes.
The VIX has made a little pop here. I saw a lot of people saying, "Does that confirm the bare market?" Not yet, right? I mean, we got a couple pops of the same magnitude. We got one here, right? This one here. I know this all happened in one candle, but it only took two candles the prior time. It took about a week the prior time. Took about a week the time before that. All of these moves are the same magnitude. Okay? and every single one ended up being resolved to much higher stock market prices. So again, I think it's too early to be making any conclusions about this high yield credit as well. Got a tiny little spike at the hard right edge, but it's not looking like the end of the world is coming here. If we go to check more alarm signals, okay, here's the 10-year 2-year. I mean, not looking like it's the end of the world either, right? No alarm signal there. If we sharpen this yield curve like we normally do at the weekend's deep dive, what do we get? Oh, hang on a minute. I've done the wrong one. 3 months, no alarm signals. So, difficult for me to conclude anything other than this is probably a flush that is going to have taken a lot of people out the market and left them wrongfooted or sidelined or blown out right before a face melting rally to the upside. Dare I be bullish here? I certainly can't be overly bearish here because we've just seen so many Dalai Llamas before. I mean, in the three years I've had this channel, we've done this countless times for a while. There was so many of them that we just started saying another one with a DJ Khaled meme because there was so many of these Dalai Lamas showing up, right? So, I've lost count of how many of these we've seen. And if this is another one, well, so far it's got all the familiar symptoms and hallmarks of that just by way of having the big downside wick that's already recovered most of the move, right? And so, all that's left here is to me our way out as I showed you earlier. And I think as ever, we'll just keep taking it one day at a time, right? No emergencies, no urgencies, no rushing, no emotional reactions to this kind of thing. We just keep trading the chart in front of us. If it changes and if it breaks down, fine, right? We can react to that. We can acknowledge when our invalidations are hit. But if they're not, then this is just part and parcel of staying on a bucking bull trend, right? We have to enable the market enough space to breathe and be willing to give back some open profit along the way in exchange for staying on a broader trend. Even if we do get some technical breakdowns, right? For example, we should probably have covered this earlier in the stock market, we've got some technical breakdowns, right? But as always, we give the market one or two days of wiggle room. Okay? If in one or two days, we have not made any type of recovery here, then we can say this is a real top. But for all we know, Monday looks like this, Tuesday looks like this, Wednesday looks like this. Okay? And then you know what Campbell's going to do, right? He's going to grab this trend line and say, I'm going to encompass the lowest low wicks because that's the level the market's now respecting as support and we're going to run this thing back turbo. So, if you really think about it, I'm not saying or doing anything that I don't normally do, right? If you've been following me for 6 months or more, then you've probably seen me do this already. You've probably seen me do this more than once already in the past six months. If you've been following me for a couple of years, you've probably seen me do this countless times in pretty much every asset that we trade. So, I'm not actually doing anything different here. I'm just continuing to kind of tell you the same things over and over again, which is frankly what we do on this channel, right? We keep saying the same things over and over again until everyone, including me, is sick of my sick of my own voice. But there's a reason we do that, and that's because it works. So, anyway, I hope you're not too disgruntled or rattled by this current move. I hope you will consider what I've said and take it one day at a time. Be open to everything next week. And of course, I'll be back with the daily content as always. If you're a level three member, we'll make some members content. Go hunt in some trade setups cuz I think this is probably a viable dip. Not not right now, right? Not Monday morning, but I think there's probably going to be some setups. In fact, that was the last thing I said before I clocked out for the weekend, which was we finally got a pullback to enter on, but now no one wants to enter anymore, right? So, anyway, have a good weekend. Don't be too much of a tape save. Don't get wound up by anything. Everything's going to be all right. And I'm your boy Camel. Until next time, all the best for me. Cheers. Bye. He's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes. Finance got the