Transcription
Well, let me ask you about another dimension of the US-China competition because right now, President Trump is very actively using tariff policy to punish nations that do business with China, though threatening them that they may lose access to the US market if they're uh if they continue to uh engage in robust trade with China and kind of looking at using this leverage. So rather than using the power of historic alliances and common values, there is a kind of punitiveness in the economic mercantilism of the US right now. There's a punish. And I'm just wondering, one, do you think Xi Jinping is worried about that? Or is this just a really uh uh you know, is this a a a strategy that could possibly work, that that Donald Trump could actually isolate China and the world?
Well, uh certainly China is not happy that uh it is going through this trade war. It's something that China would like to avoid because certainly China will be damaged uh by this trade war. Its growth will slow down. Uh there'll be less exports and people's livelihoods will be affected, and you know, that that's that's all that's real. But at the same time, you must, whenever you talk about China, you must remember that the time horizon of China is very, very different from the time horizon of American politicians. I mean, from President Trump's point of view, what he's really got to worry about is the November 2026 elections because if things in the American economy keep going down as they have been going down, it's possible that the Republicans are going to have a very rough time in November 2026. So, there is a very short time constraint on American policymakers.
Now, in the case of China, and China's been around, as you know, Steve, for 5,000 years, the Chinese think minimally in terms of a decade or two decades. So, they realize that this struggle with the United States will continue for decades. It is not going to be resolved in one or two years. And so, the Chinese are prepared to accept short-term pain for long-term gain. And right now, you notice that as a result of American pressure on many, many countries around the world, more and more countries are saying to themselves, quietly, privately, that hey, actually, it's it's much easier to deal with China, which is stable and predictable and rational, than to deal with the United States that can change its tariffs every few days or every few weeks. And so, in that sense, the the inconsistencies in American policies are in some ways a gift to China. And actually, I don't see countries walking away from China. In fact, you now uh uh I've just published an article in a Swiss newspaper NZ making the case that Europe should now see whether it can improve its ties with China as a way of counterbalancing the pressure from the United States. So, lots of nations around the world, lots of leaders are probably hedging their bets, not knowing where the United States may go on a number of these things.
Let me ask you another question on the geopolitical front, closer to uh your front in Singapore, but that is, you know, what sort of signals do you think are being sent right now regarding Taiwan and China? You know, I remember when President Joe Biden had a pretty serious spat uh with Chinese leaders over the what was going to happen with Taiwan, worries that China was beginning to try to change uh unilaterally the status quo uh in the in the Asia Pacific with regards to Taiwan. And now I'm looking at Donald Trump who's talking about taking over the Panama Canal, taking over Greenland, you know, from Denmark and, you know, in a in a in a very new kind of territorial conquest framing and and just wondering whether or not um Taiwan is toast.
Um, well, I'm glad you raised the Taiwan issue, Steve, because it is by far the most dangerous issue in the world. Because if there's one issue that can cause a war between the two greatest powers in the world, United States and China, it is Taiwan. So, we have to handle Taiwan very, very carefully. U but here I want to emphasize that actually, it is not China that is trying to change the status quo on Taiwan. China actually will be quite happy to see the status quo remain with Taiwan. And in the status quo, by the way, both Taiwan and China claim that they are part of China, that they are part of one China, and that has been American policy also to have a one China policy. So, I think if the United States sticks to its one China policy, there'll be no war in Taiwan and there will be no destruction of Taiwan.
But at the same time, you mentioned the Biden administration. It was President Joe Biden who walked away from the policy of strategic ambiguity when it came to defending Taiwan and said, "No, United States will definitely defend Taiwan." And what made matters worse was that uh Nancy Pelosi, as you know, speaker of the house, made an official visit to Taiwan and and the Chinese look at this and say, "Hey, you're trying to promote the separatism uh the separate status of Taiwan." And that goes against the understanding that United States and China have reached. So, I think if the United States should go back and read carefully the understandings that were negotiated between President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger with their Chinese counterparts. And if the United States sticks to what it has agreed to, then there will be no war over Taiwan. And the world will be a much more peaceful place. and the people of Taiwan will be better off also because with the status quo, they can keep on living the lives that they have led now for 80 years.
You know, you've just commented something I've thought a lot about, which is the United States walking away from its own uh rules and norms, the US-led global order, and the rest of the world wants to keep it while the US is rejecting this. If China does emerge, you know, not as the global hegemon, but as a globally powerful stakeholder in this, does it want those global norms and orders? Did the central, you know, committee of the Chinese Communist Party want those rules and order? Or is China going to bring a very different, distinctive dimension to that global system?
Yeah. Well, you know, I emphasized earlier, Steve, that the Chinese are always long-term thinkers. They they they think long term when they look forward and they think long term when they look backwards. Now, if you look at Chinese history over the past, especially the past 200 years, right? And as you know, the Chinese suffered a century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949. And why did they suffer a century of humiliation? Is because China tried to build walls and cut itself off from the rest of the world and became uncompetitive. Ironically, this is what President Trump is doing now. So, the Chinese have learned a big lesson from the last 200 years that the way to move China forward is to dismantle walls and to integrate with the rest of the world. Which is why China now is a bigger exporter of goods than the United States is.
Now, the the the Chinese believe that by integrating with the rest of the world, they have become stronger. And if you look at the past 30 years of economic and social development in China, they've been the best 30 years of economic, social, and development in China. The the last 30 years have been the best 30 years in 3,000 years of Chinese history. Now, if this rules-based order, which is a gift from the West to the world, has benefited China so much, why would China want to dismantle an order in which China is the number one beneficiary? The Chinese are not illogical. The Chinese are not irrational. They'll keep this order because it works for them. and and and frankly, there's been no better era for Chinese history than what we have experienced over the last 30, 40.