Transcription
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Friends, after the Pehelgam attack, an assessment has come regarding what India will do next. It has made some calculations, saying this could happen, this could happen, this could happen. For example, after the Uri incident, we conducted surgical strikes. We went up to 25 kilometers inside Pak Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. After that, Pehelgam happened. When Pehelgam happened, we went into Pakistani territory, but we attacked Balakot, where the Lashkar-e-Toiba had bases. So, Pakistan thought that if this kind of attack is done, there will be so much action and reaction.
Pakistan thought, this time after Pehelgam, if India does something major, it could do two more attacks. We will condemn those attacks, go to the world and ask for sympathy, and we can also deny that anything happened at all; our media is in our hands. That is how they thought. Moreover, some very intelligent strategists among them thought that the land army was used in the surgical strike, and then the air force acted in Balakot, so this time the attack could come from the navy. They made such predictions and were thinking about what Modi would do. But Modi did not do what they expected.
In fact, there is a possibility of an incident like Pehelgam happening; if not Pehelgam, then another incident will happen. Modi realized in 2015-16 that we need to respond to this incident. In 2014, when he was going on a flight to Afghanistan or another country, Pakistan suddenly landed the plane in Pakistan and he went as a guest to Nawaz Sharif's house, where a wedding was taking place; he also held talks at that time. But after that, Narendra Modi understood that Pakistan does not have the habit of establishing peace or living peacefully with its neighbors. He predicted that Pakistan will repeatedly attack us.
Predicting this, he gave a statement around 2017-18. Everyone thought that it was a statement because Modi speaks a bit hyperbolically. Modi said then, "Water and blood cannot flow together." This statement appeared a lot in newspapers at the time, but no one tried to analyze it. From the time he said that water and blood cannot flow together around 2016-17, India started devising a strategy on how to divert the Indus waters going to Pakistan from India, and how to make Pakistan suffer from thirst. As part of this, he used some loopholes in the Indus Waters Treaty.
In fact, discussions on the Indus Waters Treaty began in 1950, and it was signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank. According to this treaty, out of the water in the total six rivers, 80% should go to Pakistan and only 20% to India. Even in 1960, opposition parties, including Congress MPs, argued in Parliament that this is very unfair, but Nehru convinced everyone that if we deal liberally with Pakistan in this way, their minds will change and they will live together with us. The opposition did not have the numbers, so they had to bow down. Overall, looking at this agreement, more water is going to Pakistan, and we have not built as many dams as we should have. Overall, Pakistan has been benefiting from this. Whether it was the 1965 or 71 war, the Siachen war, or the Kargil war, the Indus Waters Treaty was not touched.
However, there are some loopholes in the Indus agreement. India can build any project, run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects. Similarly, water-front, river-front projects can be built in areas like Ravi. There are some such facilities. A team of experts from Pakistan will come and inspect all these facilities, sign, and go, putting their stamp of approval. Whatever we build in our country, we don't have the opportunity or need to go into Pakistan. Because it is the lower riparian state, the country in the lower part of the river, we don't need to go there. We also cannot ask for anything if we feel that some injustice is happening to us regarding the water. The law is made like that.
However, Modi called in officials from the World Bank and irrigation experts from Pakistan and showed them all the projects being built in Chenab, Sutlej, and Jhelum, and took their signatures. The Ravi riverfront project in Jammu was also visited and signed by Pakistani experts. After all this is ready, now the riverfront project has reached a stage where we can stop some water. Ravi is actually a tributary of Jhelum. If we stop the Ravi water, the inflow of Jhelum will be affected. Similarly, we are building a large hydroelectric project on Kishanganga. This hydroelectric project, Kishanganga goes and joins Jhelum again, so the project being built on Kishanganga has a wide tunnel of about 18-19 kilometers long to divert water, which the Modi government has built. All this has been happening.
Pakistan, with the assurance that India will never stop the water, did not anticipate this step while playing chess. They did not imagine that Modi would hit hard with the Indus waters first, instead of hitting with the navy, army or air force later. They also did not predict that Modi is preparing for this. There are 60 hydel projects on Chenab. Similarly, there is Ular Lake in Srinagar, in the Kashmir valley. All the documents related to the Tulbul navigation project in Ular Lake have been prepared with Pakistan's permission and are ready; it has been operationalized. So, by putting the Indus River Waters Treaty in abeyance, some short-term blows can be struck, some medium-term blows can be struck, and some long-term blows can be struck. With this, Pakistan now understands this. Pakistan says that if the Indus water treaty is revoked, it is the same as declaring war on our country. But Pakistan is not doing anything.
There is no situation to go to war because there is an escalation ladder; if I hit once, you hit once, if you hit again, I must hit thrice, and if you hit a fourth time, I have to hit five times. This is called escalation ladder, and Pakistan is not clear about how far to go in this escalation ladder. Pakistan is now spinning around with this blow struck by Modi. Due to these projects, water availability in Pakistan will decrease. Within Pakistan itself, there are disputes between Punjab and Sindh regarding the availability of water from the Indus. Because of this, they are not able to use the Indus river water. They said that they will go to the World Bank, but the World Bank will not mediate unless both parties come. If India does not go, the World Bank will not have the right or eligibility to even enter. So, Pakistan has been completely strangled. All the water going to Pakistan goes from Jammu and Kashmir, from there to occupied Kashmir, and from there to Punjab and Sindh and other areas in Pakistan. When this is blocked, Pakistan is now stunned.
Apart from all this, there is also a possibility of war. What form will the war take? Will the navy come, the army come, the air force come, or will all three attack simultaneously? How far will they come into India? Pakistan cannot calculate these numerous aspects now. What is the next step? As long as Modi does not attack, they cannot attack first, because if they attack first, they will be the aggressor. If they remain silent, Modi has changed the entire game regarding the Indus waters. So, even if Pakistan makes a mistake and attacks us first, Pakistan will suffer; Pakistan cannot fight a war for more than six or seven days after India's attack.
Overall, Pakistan has been blockaded. It has been blockaded economically, diplomatically, and in terms of medical facilities. Medical treatment is provided to 15,000 Pakistanis in India every month; that has stopped. Otherwise, they have to go to Dubai or Thailand; they cannot afford that much expense. So, by stopping all this, as each blow hits Pakistan, before they can assess the impact of the blow, another blow hits. The most important is the Indus water; military action will take place as and when India wants. The army will decide how the attack should be carried out. But overall, Modi has put Pakistan in a complete blockade. Pakistan did not expect that Modi would follow such a strategy.
That is why the Pakistan sympathizers in this country are saying, "Attack Pakistan, occupy Pakistan, attack Pakistan, occupy Pakistan". Some parties which never made such a statement are now trying to incite, but it will not help them if Modi takes a wrong step; but if Modi, our Indian army takes strategic steps, it will definitely teach Pakistan a lesson, but it will happen in the way we choose and as we wish. It will not happen as other countries in the world want, nor as the Pakistan sympathizers in our country want. So, overall, Pakistan is now like a rat in a mousetrap. It has spread its army on three sides, with attacks from Afghanistan, the Balochistan insurgency, and tensions with India. It is taking blows in several places; soldiers are fleeing from bases in several places. More than all this, without knowing what will happen, Modi, from 2015-16, thought about how to operationalize this Indus Water Treaty. Pakistan did not expect Modi to take this step. Because of this, Pakistan is now stunned, because they do not have water security from anywhere else; there is no situation to bring water to Pakistan by helicopters, planes or railway tankers. So, if this situation continues, Pakistan will have no option but to surrender.
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