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In this video, we're going to be breaking down three World Cup 2026 games happening on July 1st, 2026, and providing you with picks for all these games. As usual, stick around until the end because you won't want to miss out on anything.
There's something about the way Thomas Tuchel has rewired this England side that goes beyond the X's and O's on a tactics board. It's not just about talent anymore. It's about discipline, and the numbers backing that claim are almost hard to believe. Across their eight World Cup qualifying matches, England conceded exactly zero goals. That's right, zero across an entire European qualification campaign, becoming the first European team in history to accomplish that particular feat. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford went 720 consecutive minutes through all of 2025 qualifying without picking the ball out of his own net. That kind of defensive identity doesn't just vanish when a bigger stage arrives, and the evidence here at the World Cup suggests it hasn't. Two of England's three group stage matches ended with clean sheets. The only breach coming in the somewhat chaotic 4-2 win over Croatia on match day one. Since then, nothing conceded against Ghana, nothing conceded against Panama. Expand the lens a bit, and you'll see that 12 of England's last 13 competitive fixtures have ended without the opposition scoring. 14 of their last 15 victories have come with clean sheets attached. Those aren't cherry-picked windows. That's a genuine defensive culture that Tuchel has embedded into the fabric of this team, and it matters here.
On the other side, DR Congo carry a peculiar offensive profile that should give you real confidence in this direction. Under Sébastien Desabre, who has managed the Leopards for four years now, they've scored one goal or fewer in roughly two-thirds of their matches. That's a pattern, not a fluke. Their entire World Cup output has essentially funneled through one man, Newcastle's Yoane Wissa, who has accounted for three of their four tournament goals, a staggering 75% of the total. You'd think partner Cedric Bakambu, the real bet as striker, would be supplementing that, but he has yet to register a single shot on target across three World Cup appearances. Think about that for a second. Three games at the biggest tournament on Earth and not one attempt that actually troubled a goalkeeper. If England can contain Wissa, and they have the personnel with Consa and Guehi sitting centrally to deal with his movement, DR Congo's route to goal shrinks dramatically. The Leopards earned all four of their group stage points by coming from behind, which is a testament to their resilience, but it also tells you they're reactive, not proactive. They aren't a team that imposes itself going forward. They absorb and wait, and against [music] a defense this well-organized and this stingy, the chances to counterpunch simply dry up. Declan Rice's return to the midfield further tightens the middle of the pitch, giving England their chief ball-winner and defensive shield back after he sat out the Panama match as a precaution. Honestly, when you have a side keeping clean sheets at this rate, facing an opponent who struggles to create chances by design, you're looking at a convergence that doesn't come around often. England to win to nil is our first pick for this match-up.
DR Congo play a very specific brand of football, and it tells a clear story about how this match will unfold in terms of combined scoring. Desabre's tactical philosophy is built around a low defensive block, typically a five-to-three-to-two shape, where the wing-backs sit deep, the midfield three shields the center, and the entire unit surrenders possession willingly. Against Portugal on matchday one, DR Congo held just under 39% of the ball. Against Colombia, it was a similar story. They invite the opponent forward, compress space, and try to hit on the counter when the opportunity arises. Here's the thing, that approach naturally caps the number of goals in a game. 15 of DR Congo's last 16 matches have featured fewer than four total goals, and and chunk of those landed at two or fewer. Under Desabre, DR Congo have never lost by more than a single goal in four years of matches. That's remarkable resilience, but it also reflects a ceiling on both sides of the scoreboard. The games just don't open up.
Now, pair that with England's recent trajectory and you start to see the picture come together. Seven of England's last nine matches across all competitions have produced fewer than three total goals. The four-to-two Croatia opener feels like an outlier when you zoom out. A wild, emotional first game that went against the grain of everything Tuchel has built. Since that night in Dallas, England have scored two, zero, and two across their last three World Cup outings. They've been level at the break in each of their last four competitive fixtures, which tells you these matches are slow burns, not fireworks shows. England control possession. They probe. They wait for the moment. And when they find it, they take it. They don't blow teams out the way they did in qualifying against the likes of Latvia and Andorra. Ghana gave us the clearest template for how this game will look. An African side set up in a disciplined low block, denied England space, and the match ended scoreless. England's creative issues against compact defenses have been a recurring theme, with Anthony Gordon, Noni Madueke, Bukayo Saka, and Marcus Rashford all rotating through the wide positions without anyone consistently unlocking packed defenses from the flank. DR Congo know this blueprint intimately because it's essentially how they play every match.
You should also factor in the context of the occasion. This is a knockout game, a single elimination World Cup match, and historically those tighten up. DR Congo are making their first ever appearance in the knockout rounds of a World Cup, a genuinely historic moment for the nation, and you'd better believe Desabre is going to set up conservatively rather than let his team get exposed. The Leopards' three-to-one win over Uzbekistan in the final group game was exciting, sure, but that was a must-win scenario where they trailed and had to abandon their usual shape. Against England with everything on the line and a chance to frustrate one of the tournament favorites, expect the Sabres to revert to the airtight structure that held Portugal and Colombia to just one goal apiece. The possession split could be massive, something close to 65-35 in England's favor based on group stage averages. And that kind of territorial dominance doesn't always translate into goals. Sometimes it actually suppresses them because the dominant team recycles and probes without finding the final pass while the defending team never gets enough of the ball to generate chances. Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a retractable roof venue, climate controlled, so there's no wind or weather element to create chaos or random bounces that might inflate the score. This game is going to be methodical, tight, and decided by a moment or two of quality, not a barrage. Game total under 2.5 goals is our second pick for this match up.
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Now, back to the game. Belgium versus Senegal. There's something about a World Cup knockout round that changes everything, and this match up between Belgium and Senegal at Lumen Field in Seattle is one of those games where you really have to look underneath the surface. Belgium didn't exactly storm through their group, and that's actually what makes them dangerous right now. They drew with Egypt 1 to 1 in their opener, drew with Iran 0 to 0 in a frustrating second match, and then flipped the entire script with a 5 to 1 demolition of New Zealand to finish on top of Group G. That's a classic slow burn, the kind of build that tells you a squad is finding its rhythm at exactly the right time rather than peaking too early. Here's the thing. Kevin De Bruyne created 13 chances from open play across the group stage, which is the most by any Belgian player in a single World Cup group since Enzo Scifo managed 15 back in 1994. That kind of creative volume doesn't just happen because a midfielder is feeling inspired. It happens because the structure around him is clicking. Leandro Trossard grabbed a brace in that New Zealand game and looked like a player who'd been waiting for the stage to open up. And Jérémy Doku, who missed the Iran match due to illness and briefly left camp for the birth of his son, returned for the New Zealand match and immediately injected the kind of direct, line-breaking pace that makes Belgium's front line genuinely terrifying when it's all connected.
Now look at the other side of this draw. Senegal qualified as a third-place finisher from Group 1, and their path here was turbulent. They lost 3-1 to France, lost 3-2 to Norway, and then beat Iraq 5-0, though that scoreline needs a massive asterisk because Iraq had a man sent off in the 13th minute. The Lions of Teranga are talented, no question, but their record in World Cup knockout matches against European opposition tells a story you can't ignore. They've now lost four straight World Cup games against European teams, stretching back to their exits against the Netherlands and England in 2022 and continuing with the France and Norway defeats in this tournament. And here's a factor that doesn't get enough attention. First-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy is out with a knee injury he suffered against Norway. He left camp entirely to fly back to Al Ahly in Saudi Arabia for treatment, and Mory Diaw of Le Havre is set to start between the posts. Replacing your starting World Cup goalkeeper in a do-or-die knockout round is not a minor inconvenience.
Belgium came into this tournament unbeaten in their last 16 games across all competitions, and that kind of form, combined with the squad depth of players like Alexis Saelemaekers, Amadou Onana, and Dodi Lukebakio coming off the bench, gives Rudi Garcia options that Pape Gueye simply doesn't have. Belgium became the first European side since England in 1990 to win a World Cup group after failing to win either of their first two matches. And that kind of resilience in a tournament setting speaks to something deeper than just talent. Belgium on the money line is our first pick for this match-up.
Everything about this game screams tight, cagey, and tense. You look at the knockout round results so far in this tournament. Canada beat South Africa 1 to 0. Germany and Paraguay went 1 to 1 through regulation before penalties. The Netherlands and Morocco drew 1 to 1 through 90 minutes before a shootout. And Norway edged Ivory Coast 2 to 1. Three out of five completed round of 32 games have finished with two or fewer goals in regulation. That's not a coincidence. When the stakes shift from play for a point to lose and you're on a plane home, teams tighten up. Managers get conservative. The first 20 minutes of knockout matches feel like chess, not football. Belgium's own tournament arc tells you everything you need to know about their defensive profile. They conceded just two goals across three group stage matches, one to Egypt and one to New Zealand. That goalless draw against Iran, the most frustrating game for Belgian fans, was also a demonstration that Thibaut Courtois and the back line of Brandon Mechele, Arthur Theate, Timothy Castagne, and Maxime De Cuyper can lock a game down when the attacking play isn't flowing. Courtois is 34 years old and in his fourth World Cup. He won the Golden Glove back in 2018 when Belgium finished third, and his shot-stopping ability at this level is proven beyond debate. And when you pair that with the reality that this is the first ever competitive meeting between Belgium and Senegal, there's an inherent tactical caution that comes with facing an unfamiliar opponent. Neither coaching staff has a game plan template to pull from. Both sides will spend the opening stretch feeling each other out, and that kind of chess match eats into the clock.
On Senegal's side, there's a stat that jumped out immediately. They scored 10 of their last 12 goals after halftime. That pattern suggests they're a team that takes time to build into matches, and in a knockout game where Belgium will be organized and disciplined from the first whistle, there just aren't going to be easy opportunities early. Senegal's 5-0 win over Iraq was spectacular, but context matters enormously. Iraq went down to 10 men in the 13th minute, and four of Senegal's five goals came after half time against a depleted, exhausted defense. That's not a repeatable blueprint against a Belgium backline anchored by Champions League winning goalkeeper. Captain Youri Tielemans and Hans Vanaken will sit in front of that defense and control tempo in the middle of the park, making it harder for Senegal's midfield to generate the kind of quick transitions they need. The weather in Seattle today is mild, around 65° with a slight chance of rain. Nothing that's going to open this game up. Lumen Field's partial roof will keep the crowd noise amplified and the atmosphere intense, which tends to make both teams more cautious about committing numbers forward. Game total under 2.5 goals is our second pick for this match up.
United States versus Bosnia and Herzegovina. There's something about the way the United States have come out of the gates in this World Cup that tells you this team isn't just here to participate. They're here to make noise. Folarin Balogun won man of the match in both of the Americans group stage victories, scored twice against Paraguay, and forced the own goal that opened the scoring against Australia. Christian Pulisic, who's been nursing a calf issue since before the tournament began, has declared himself fit and ready after returning as a substitute against Turkey and looking sharp from the moment he touched the ball. This is a team that opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes in both of their meaningful group games, and with Pochettino's full strength starting 11 back together after rotating nine players for the dead rubber loss to Turkey, you know they're going to come out firing on all cylinders in Santa Clara.
But here's the thing, and this is the part people keep overlooking. Bosnia and Herzegovina are not here to roll over. This is a squad that knocked Italy out of World Cup qualifying, and if you haven't heard that story, it's worth a moment. Down early against the four-time World Cup champions, Bosnia rallied after an Alessandro Bastoni red card, and it was Esmer Bajraktarević, a kid who grew up in Appleton, Wisconsin, whose family fled the Srebrenica genocide, who stepped up and buried the clinching penalty in the shootout to send Bosnia to their second ever World Cup. Bajraktarević actually earned a senior cap for the United States in a 2024 friendly against Slovenia before switching his international allegiance to his parents' homeland. And now he's lining up against the country that raised him. That's the kind of personal fire that produces dangerous performances.
Bosnia scored in every single one of their group stage matches, finding the net against Canada, Switzerland, and Qatar. They bring Edin Džeko, who at 40 years old has 73 international goals and 150 caps for his country, and while the legs aren't what they used to be, his movement in the box and his presence on set pieces remain a real problem. Three of Bosnia's five group stage goals came from set-piece situations, and with Džeko, Ermedin Demirović, and the towering Sead Kolašinac lurking in the area, the American backline, which is relatively undersized, is going to be under stress from dead-ball deliveries all night. And then you look at the data that really seals this. Bosnia have never, not once, kept sheet in six all-time World Cup matches. Both teams found the net in 10 of Bosnia's last 11 matches heading into this fixture. The Americans are going to score. We can be pretty confident about that. But Bosnia have shown throughout this tournament and throughout qualifying that they have the weapons to score themselves, whether it's the 18-year-old Kerim Alajbegović, who scored in the group stage and is heading to Bayer Leverkusen, or the pacey Bajraktarević burning down the flanks on the counter, or Džeko finding space in the box like he's done for two decades. In a knockout environment where Bosnia have nothing to lose and everything to gain, backed by a passionate diaspora that turned Seattle into a home stadium for their Qatar match, expecting a shutout from either side feels like a stretch. Both teams to score yes is our first pick for this match up.
This entire World Cup has been an absolute festival of goals, and that's not an exaggeration. It's a fact. The group stage of this tournament produced 215 total goals across 72 matches, averaging 2.99 per game, the highest rate at any World Cup since 1958. That is nearly seven decades of World Cup football, and no addition has seen this kind of relentless attacking output. When you narrow the lens to the two teams playing tonight, the numbers get even more encouraging. The United States three group stage games produced a combined total of 12 goals, averaging four per match. Paraguay was a five-goal game, Australia produced two, and Turkey produced five. Bosnia's three group matches weren't far behind, combining for 11 total goals, an average just north of three and a half per game. Their draw with Canada produced two, the Switzerland loss was a five-goal affair, and the Qatar win yielded four. The only previous meeting between these nations that actually had goals was the August 2013 friendly in Sarajevo, and that one finished four to three, a seven-goal thriller where Jozy Altidore hit a hat trick. So, when these two sides meet, the ball tends to find the back of the net.
What makes the knockout format so important here is the way it changes the psychology of the game. If Bosnia fall behind early and the Americans have opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes in both of their competitive group matches, they can't sit back and absorb pressure the way they might in a group stage scenario where a draw still has value. They have to push forward, they have to commit bodies, and that creates the kind of transitional chaos where Balogun, Pulisic, and Dest can run at stretch defenses. On the flip side, Pochettino's entire coaching identity is built around pressing, possession, and creating volume in the final third. He is not a park the bus manager. He wants his full backs high. He wants his wingers cutting inside. He wants McKennie making late runs into the box. That kind of aggressive approach is phenomenal for generating chances, but it also leaves space behind for Bosnia's counter-attacking runners like Badredine Hadžić and Haris Hajradinović, who both have the speed to punish any defensive transition lapses.
You also have to factor in the conditions. Levi's Stadium is an open-air venue in Santa Clara in early July is warm and dry with temperatures expected around the upper 70s at kickoff. The pitch should be fast and the ball should move quickly, which tends to favor attacking play in higher scoring affairs. There's no wind concern, no rain in the forecast, just clean, fast football conditions. Honestly, when you combine a World Cup that's producing goals generational rate, two teams that have both been involved in high-scoring group stage matches, a knockout format that punishes passive play, and a warm, fast-playing surface, everything points in the same direction. Game total over 2.5 goals is our second pick for this match-up.
That's all for now. So, if you have any other games you would like reviewed, then leave a comment down below with the game you would like analyzed. Subscribe to our channel, leave a like on this video, and we'll get to it as soon as we possibly can. We would also love to hear your opinion on the picks presented to you in this video, whether you agree or disagree with them. So, leave a comment down below and do let us know.