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There was this button on it with a lock on it. I'm like, "What's this button do?" And it like locks my locked my windows.
>> Happy Wednesday, everyone. You just caught Chris trying to tinker with his new keyboard, new mouse on the way. That is what lifestyle chips look like. Uh, welcome to our weekly TA show, Trading the Markets. This is the show where we go over the charts. We look at what's happening in the world of crypto and technical analysis to see what we can sift through. And we're back, guys. and the market is slightly up, slightly down, who knows these days? But we're going to talk about all of it. But before we do, head over to realvision.com/pricing for your generational setup. Right now, we're running um memberships up to 70% off. So, $14 per month for Connect, which gets you access to uh Chris Chris's AI portfolio, Chris's crypto portfolio, Joe Bland's macro portfolio, as well as our live shows and reports that come to you monthly and alpha $49 a month and you can get pro for $2.49 per month. So, head over to realvision.compricing. Just so you know, we have a lot of stuff coming uh especially by the end of this month. A lot of new dashboards and something really really cool. If you ask me about it in the Discord, I may tell you, but uh until then, uh you'll just have to wait. Chris, happy Wednesday. How's it going?
>> Uh it's going well. I actually did a really good uh TA interview with Rect Capital earlier this morning for the Pro Tier, and that was a lot of fun. So, I'm primed to talk about Bitcoin and everything else that's going on. And uh yeah, looking forward to it.
>> Yeah, looking definitely looking forward to it, I guess, a little bit. Uh right before we started the show, Bitcoin was at 60,000 uh or a little bit above and then I made a comment and then it fell below 60,000. So, I'm just not going to comment on it. I'll leave that to you. But, I know you wanted to look at kind of the macro setup and seeing what's going on before we dive into Bitcoin. So why don't you uh take it away?
>> Yeah. Yeah. So I wanted to start with macro because I had I made all these cool new macro conditions indicators and so I wanted to just go back and do a brief run through of all of that. Talk about how things have evolved over the past week. Um conditions have started to loosen a little bit and are potentially trending in the right direction. So, I thought that that would be a good starting point and then yeah, we'll get into Bitcoin and um I'm going to spend a fair bit of time using the Trading Alpha indicator suite because I haven't been using it on the shows as much lately. And so, I was looking at it this morning and I was like, "Yeah, I think I need to give this one some love because it's uh it's it's a solid solid setup." And so, we'll go through the watch list and sort of look at crypto through that lens and um talk about what we see. But let's start with macro. So last week, um I don't know where we were last week at this point, but macro like global liquidity was still um chunking down basically. Let me turn on my cursor here. It was it was doing this big ugly downtrend and um I don't know which button. Okay. Nope. New keyboard. Sorry. Bear with me. One of these will make this highlighter work. Anyway, um it was it it pivoted here. it bottomed, but it doesn't look like it's showing a lot of strength. It's like, yeah, it's a bounce. Uh, of course, the dollar, you know, conversely bounced uh at the same level as their inversely correlated. So, it was interesting to see that, but the dollar is still showing a fair bit of strength. I mean, it really only bounced off of its 10day moving average and is kind of bumping right back up there. And then if you look at like the the rate of change for um the liquidity which are these you know colored squiggly lines here basically these top three are the monthly yearly I'm sorry 3 month six month and and yearly rates of change. You can see they're all still pretty heavily pointed to the downside. It's really only the monthly rate of change that has bottomed and bounced back up which sort of aligns with this this short-term bounce we're seeing here. So on a monthly level rate of change liquidity is bounced but on the other you know higher time frames still very much pointed to the downside. So we are still firmly in a liquidity contraction and um we're only seeing a potential potential slight bounce there. So not not great. But if we look at everything else um the VIX has settled down which I think is good. it was hovering up in the low 20s and that was causing the the stock markets in particular to go baddy um over the last you know couple of weeks and it's sort of come back down to its you know kind of more boring level around 1516 which is good um and then if we look at the risk framework credit speds have remained stable I want to talk about real rates though real rates have leveled off like they were really tightening they were really getting constrictive But over the last week, they've stabilized a bit, just like liquidity is stabilized a bit. So that's starting to um well stabilize, which is causing the rest of the market to stabilize. But this one is kind of an impulse indicator of that of that one we just looked at a second ago. And this also we can see has rounded over and is starting to cool off. And I'd like to see this even just pick up a little bit of momentum to the downside. It doesn't even need to flip green or go below this line as long as it just keeps trending to the downside. That's going to indicate that markets are going a little bit more into a riskon posture. And so that will be bullish for me. So I'm looking for some continuation on this line here. And then finally, this is like the whole risk fin or financial conditions index. And we can see here that it's slightly less bad than it was last week. So the whole point here things are easing slightly. They're trending towards easing. They're not like good. They're not like risk on, but they're they're less bad than they were. So they're moving in the right direction. They're still tight. Um but that's helpful to see. So I think that that's the big um overarching kind of theme I want to start with and then let's get into Bitcoin specifically.
So, it's interesting with Bitcoin. Um, let me actually look at it on the daily here first. So, on the daily, it well, it's funny. Uh, it broke down. It This was the yesterday was the first day that it actually closed below this big support resistance line. Like, we had had several wicks down below it, but it would always come back up and close above it. And then yesterday, finally closed closed below it. But then today, well, up until a little bit ago, it had fully engulfed yesterday's downward candle and it was back up above it. And it still is back up above the line now. Um, and we do have a decent uh bullish divergence flag here, a four flag, and we've still got a slight bullish divergence on the RSI. Um, but it's it's lost a little bit of its speed. It actually got rejected off the 10day moving average. It wicked up to it perfectly and then is back down off of it a bit. So, it remains to be seen if it's actually going to close below this line. Like, if it closes below this line, um, that's not a great look obviously, but then at the same time, I keep talking about September October time frame and how we're just going to see a bunch of chop between now and then anyway. So, it's like does it does it really matter? I suppose whether it does or doesn't. Um, and then if we kind of zoom out to the weekly time frame, same deal. Last week, we got a wick below the line, but it still managed to close it right at the line. And then of course it opened this week right on the line, wicked way down below it again and is back up above it at the moment. So on a weekly time frame we're still holding the line even though we've got multiple wicks below it. Um we still do have this I mean you can call it a bullish divergence a little bit but it's lost a lot of its strength that it had. Like earlier it was more like this and now it's kind of like this. It's like technically, yeah, it's still a bullish divergence a little bit, but we're starting to see some pretty decent continued momentum to the downside that's pushing this RSI lower and lower even still. So, uh, my my thesis still stands with Bitcoin. I still think we're going to we're going to see a lot of chop for a ways still. I still think there's a real possibility we get down into the 50s. And um, I still, you know, patience remains the name of the game with Bitcoin. So, and and with the rest of crypto for that matter. Uh that said, there are a handful that are doing well. And so, yeah, I wanted to go through the watch list using this trading alpha suite indicator that that I use. Um, and I it's funny, I I talk about it a fair bit, but like I said, I just haven't looked at it that much um in recent recent history. So, let's start with Bitcoin. We did have a bottoming flag signal pop here. But, uh, in order for this to be like confirmed, validated, whatever. Um, one of the next two candles has to close above the highest point of this of this signal flag. And right now, that's not the case. Um, it did wick above it, but it's back down below it. So, either this candle needs to close above it or the ne tomorrow's candle needs to close above it for this to be sort of a confirmed bottom signal. Otherwise, it's just noise really. So, that's where we're looking. That's what we're looking at with Bitcoin. Also, ugly track line really pointed heavily to the downside. Really remains red. This has all the hallmark signals of a of a of a downtrend basically. I mean, it's red candles, red dots, which are showing that there's continued momentum to the downside, which I just spoke about with the RSI. And then, of course, the red track line too with a pretty heavy, you know, downward trajectory. So, yeah, Bitcoin doesn't look awesome on the daily. On the weekly, um, I mean, just as bad. It's, you know, red candles, red dots, red track line, all of the above. Um, not great. So, yeah. Um, I'm going to pause there for a second. Uh, let Bjan interject and then I can go through the rest of the alt sector, but that's kind of one of the where I wanted to focus.
>> So, we've been seeing a lot of like um we've been seeing a lot of headlines and news about the dollar strengthening, right? And then I think just recently it it had uh can't remember like historically where it fell but like Japan basically re hit a new low or the Japan yen hit a new low against the dollar. How is that impacting uh what you're seeing uh in terms of >> how it relates to crypto? Um >> like a stronger dollar means like you know less risk less risk on right but it seems like Bitcoin is not tanking as maybe as much as I thought with with what a stronger dollar headline might might reflect but what are you seeing?
>> It's definitely not showing a lot of strength. I think the stronger dollar really impacts things like Bitcoin, things like gold, you know, non-yield bearing, non-revenue generating assets like you know store value type assets. Those are the ones that tend to be the most heavily impacted by this and and they they are I mean stocks are continuing to do well particularly tech stocks particularly AI stocks that have the the capex that are driving them um that aren't really as subject to the the whims of the dollar strength. They've got money coming in they've got order backlogs revenues all all of that stuff. So they kind of operate on their own. But when you look at something like Bitcoin or gold where there's not a company, there's no yield. There's no revenue. There's no, it's just like it's just going to it's almost like it's going to move directly inverse with the dollar because obviously if the dollar value goes up naturally Bitcoin is worth fewer dollars just by virtue of the dollar going up itself, you know, and so um yeah, it's it's directly inversely correlated like I said. So that's kind of what we're seeing here. Um obviously the rest of crypto largely falls in line with that, but of course we know there are exceptions. We know there are a handful of crypto assets that are generating money that are, you know, doing actual real real stuff. And so, not that Bitcoin isn't, but you know what I mean. There's there's there's a difference between like Hyperlquid and Bitcoin in that sense. And and so that's kind of what I'm talking about. Um, pretty ugly. It's also kind of exemplified with Bitcoin in particular with the the ETFs like Tradfi is really selling off for the first time since this chart was created. We have ETFs dipping below uh like the the total volume of of Bitcoin held in ETFs dipped below the total number of Bitcoin held in in uh treasuries in DATs. Um which is a bit ugly. That's and it really uh the the ETF level is at the lowest it's been in about a year. Like it gave up essentially a whole year's worth of gains. Um, from an ETF standpoint, it's in terms of total aggregate, you know, institutional held BTC, it's a little better off because again, because DATs have continued to increase, uh, Strategy has continued to buy Bitcoin and so it's only, you know, given up um, a few months worth of price action, but but yeah, ETFs, man, people are institutions are selling uh, Bitcoin ETFs big time and it's it's uh, it's rapidly dwindling. I think that that will be contained, but it's just um symptomatic of of where we are right now. So anyway, getting back to this,
>> at least that reconciles though or makes sense to where we're at right now because before it was like, you know, record ETF inflows, right? Um and all of this like overall weakening dollar, you know, inflation rise, like all of this overall bullish macro environment, but we didn't see that in the price. But now when we see an a strengthening dollar, right, ETF outflows, now the price actually starts to make a little bit more sense as opposed to that. I'm not really making a point, just more so that at least it it finally is making a little more sense than where we were like a few months ago.
>> I agree. Um it's probably not a bad thing to see institutional or trady investors kind of capitulating a little bit, too. I mean that sort of also just falls in line with the general bottoming pattern, you know, bottoming phase of the of the bare market. And um I think that that's not a good thing, but it's sort of again one of the yet another checkbox that needs to happen in order for the bottom to ultimately be in kind of thing. So
>> um yeah,
>> and then you add to that that uh you know reportedly that uh the Clarity Act is essentially being punted into 2027 now. Um which just adds you know further uncertainty if you will and our friend Matt says the markets hate uncertainty more than negative news.
>> Yeah, I'm really iffy on the Clarity Act. Um there's it's it's very much a a coin flip that it's going to pass this year and it's like if it doesn't pass this year. I don't know what that means for next year. You know, there's there's even more uncertainty at that point. Um it still is possible. It still is possible that it could pass, but it's got a tough road ahead. And then I want to I I want to also reiterate too, I've said this a few different times in the Discord, but even if it does pass, which we need it to pass, but even if it does pass, that doesn't automatically mean there's this instant influx of liquidity. There's this instant catalyst to rocket Bitcoin into a new bull market. You know, that the Clarity Act passing isn't suddenly going to give retail a bunch of extra money to go buy Bitcoin. Um, it's not gonna, you know, if anything, it's just going to give Tradfi, it's going to create a more investable environment for institutions to participate in crypto, but that doesn't automatically mean that on day one it's just going to go to the moon. So, keep that in mind. If it, you know, if it passes, that's not necessarily going to be the savior that flips us into an extended monthsl long bull market right out of the gate, you know. So, I guess just keep your expectations in check there. but also we need it, you know, at the same time. So, um, we'll we'll, you know, we'll see. Um, yeah.
>> All right. Well, let's, uh, before we got off on that little tangent, you were you were talking about how there are, um, other assets though that are showing strength, right, regardless of this environment. I think you were about to go into um, what those were.
>> Yeah, there's a handful. I mean, it's a lot of the it's a lot of the regulars that that I talk about. But I'm going to I'll start with Hyperliquid. We can see Hyperlquid obviously a very different picture than what we were just looking at with Bitcoin. However, um it's not as rosy as it once was. I mean, clearly it's it's changed the you know, we were in the steady green uptrend up until uh the beginning of June. We corrected. We had a nice bounce. We actually did poke a slightly higher high later in June, but um obviously, you know, the indicator has changed. We flipped from green to red. So the trend is now to the downside. I would argue the trend is very sort of neutral in this sense. We've got a yellow track line which is a neutral signal. We've got no dots which is also a neutral signal. So um it is red. I'll you know I'll count that against it. But like to me this is just it's plotting sideways. We're seeing a bit of a a volatility compression a volatility squeeze and um we're just sort of waiting for the next catalyst. So this isn't necessarily bad. The fact that it's still above its track line, I think is a solid positive. The fact that the track line itself is not pointed downwards is also a solid positive. So, I take again I just take away from from hype right now just a very sort of neutral neutral signal which is better than still most of crypto. So, I'll take a neutral signal over a outright negative signal all day long. Um, and if we look at Venice, it's funny. Venice is like slightly nuanced in a in a slightly worse fashion. But um it's still green candles, but arguably though this is in in part to do with um it's a newer chart. Well, actually no, I take that back. Forget that. Um it it has it actually has red dots. Even though it has green candles, it has red dots, which is telling me that it's actually building momentum to the downside. So unlike um the more sort of neutrality signal from we were getting from hyperlquid, we're actually getting some momentum building to the downside. Like these these red dots are often very much a precursor to a change from green candles to red candles. And the fact that it's below its track line, whereas Hyperlid was still above its track line um and it's been in a neutral state for a longer period of time than Hyperlid uh is is a little bit concerning. Now, however, there was a good headline today that came out from Venice. Uh they they uh had a new funding round. I don't remember exactly. They, you know, they were deemed to have a billion dollar valuation and they they um generated like 20 or 30 million in in new funding uh investments. So, that's good. Obviously, that's good for Venice. Um I don't think Venice is going anywhere long term. I think what we're seeing really here is more just sort of short-term. This is, you know, it it ran for a while. it it's been one of the better performers for several months now and it probably just needed to cool off and it's cooling off a little bit more than Hyperlid was but um still very strong and still sort of in that very very small category of crypto assets that are you know going to be solid revenue generating um sort of assets that break out of the the crypto sphere you know that
>> um >> while we're on Venice real quick if you guys want more on Venice's background. Uh Ralph did a episode, I think just it was just two weeks ago, a journeyman episode with Eric Vorhees, who is the founder of Venice. Yeah, Very insightful, very cool stuff to hear like kind of how he thought about it when he created it. Uh definitely check that out if you just want some background knowledge on on how Venice started and and where they're looking to go.
>> Yes, definitely.
>> Go ahead. Um I wanted to I wanted to touch on near because it has been doing well and uh it's it's sort of come back to earth a bit here. So um like I said you know it had broken out. It was showing a lot of strength. You can see that this is what I talk about when we start to see these red dots being a precursor. This is what I mean when these red dots show up. This means that whatever the trend is it's losing steam. It's it's waning and it's you know should they continue it's going to it's going to flip the whole trend red. And it sure enough it did. So, um, once it started breaking down below the track line, the track line flipped neutral. Um, we flipped from green dots to red dots. Now, we're in a full-on downtrend. Basically, this this uptrend that near was in um is is well and truly over uh for the time being. I don't I'm not going to say forever, but for the moment, it's in a downtrend. It has reversed. Um, and this like this arrow here, this downward arrow indicates that it's building steam. You know, again, it's below its track line. It's got all the the fundamental characteristics of a trend reversal in a downtrend. So, right now, near is uh riskoff for me. Near is like I'm not gonna I'm not going to go there. I you know, I think it ran a bit on some narrative. Um and yes, it's got the fundamentals. It it's still got the cool stuff that it's doing with um the agent side of things and building out that framework, but it's it doesn't have the adoption to support the the narrative. So yes, while it's doing cool stuff, um it still needs more real world adoption to fully sustain a rally like this and that's what we're not seeing yet. So um near in other words, NER just remains a speculative asset. Um it's a good one, but it's still just speculative. And so what we're seeing here is speculative price action and people are taking profits after this big rally and um it's just going to kind of move based on on on buzz right now. Um, so just I guess know that with near and really that goes for almost all of these to some degree or another. Um, another one, Arrow. We talk about Aerodrome a fair bit. Um, Aerodrome, if you don't know, is the, uh, DEX that runs on the base uh, base chain, the layer, the ETH layer 2, the base. um that has been partnered with Coinbase and operates as the sort of de facto backend, DeFi backend for trading DeFi on the Coinbase platform. So, they're directly tied in with Coinbase, which is going to always continue to sustain them. Um they look good. They're above their track line, green candles. They've lost their green dots, but they're still neutral. So, um nice steady, solid, just I guess relative strength is what I would how I would characterize this. um it's not you know rapid uh but it just looks good and um it's outpacing a lot of the other assets in the space and it's you know it's in a good category being DeFi um it does acrue some value back to the token not not like the way not to the degree that Hyperlid does but it's got good fundamentals it's got good tokconomics it's got it's got all the stuff so I'm not surprised to see it doing well um but just in this larger crypto market I I still, you know, hesitate to get too into any of these to to invest too heavily into any of these, but nevertheless, arrow does look good right now and it is outpacing quite a bit. And then another one that popped up on on here that kind of surprised me was useless. Um, yes, granted it's red. It's been running up. Um, and it did have a breakdown, but it quickly shot back up, broke back up above its track line, and uh, even though the candle flipped red, it's still it's got green dots, meaning it's, you know, again, on the verge of potentially flipping back green again. So, it's a neutralish signal, but it too, like um, you know, like Arrow, is showing relative strength compared to a lot of the rest of the crypto market. So, um, yeah, I mean, it it looks good. Those are the handful that kind kind of took me by surprise. Um I definitely want to go through the the big majors, your your Ethereum, your Salana and Su and XRP and all those and and kind of just show you where those are at too. But um there's not a lot that looks good at the moment, honestly. So So yeah.
>> Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Let's take a look at those majors because um it kind of leads segus into a question I have for you about them in particular, right? Like so basically does it give you like a little confidence reason for optimism when you see things like salon like when Bitcoin is is on is going up right that you see the Salanas and the SW of the world going up more than Bitcoin does that give you a reason for optimism or like how do you kind of think about that?
>> Um well I think I mean first of all they're not outpacing Bitcoin at least in this in this moment. So they're to me it's more just I think we're going to see all of these majors be pretty anemic, you know, for the next three three plus months. I I really am not expecting anything. Um if I was going to get into any of them, I like I said, I keep saying be patient. Only DCA. Don't think you need to pile into any of these, especially if you see like a big wick down or a big candle down. Don't think that that's like I got to I got to go all in right now. like it's just patience remains the name of the game here. Uh so but let's look at each one of them individually and we'll see if there's some more more to talk about there. I want to start with Bitcoin Cash actually because it's I the reason it's I laugh at this but Bitcoin Cash actually outpaced Bitcoin quite a bit last year. Like it most people don't even really realize that but it outpaced Bitcoin for most of last year. um just totally under the radar and that it had a huge draw down here just in May. Um but it's kind of rounded back up and we're starting to see signs of a reversal. We had a bottoming candle uh trigger here and then we had a reversal candle trigger here. Both of which were confirmed uh by the subsequent candle uh closing higher than both of these. And now we've kind of got to see um the the dots went away on the on the red side and we've got our first green dot on on here. So, and we can see the RSI has rounded back up over. So, this looks like a pretty decent just technical bottoming pattern with Bitcoin Cash on the daily. Um, obviously it's still pretty ugly, but it it was showing some resilience, I guess you could say. Uh and showing some signs of the bottom being in, at least in the short term. I don't know what that means in terms of over the next three to four months, but it was a technical change that caught my eye and I wanted to call it out. Um, moving on to Ethereum. I mean, Ethereum doesn't look as good even just as Bitcoin Cash did a second ago. Like Bitcoin Cash, nice solid rounding up pattern, you know. Uh we're seeing the the red dots disappear, the green dots reappear. If we compare this to ETH now, um you know, yeah, it had a bounce, but it's just kind of red red across the board. No real bottoming signals or reversal signals. The only two that showed up were immediately invalidated. Um just not a lot of strength here. like we've had the first candle with with uh the red dot disappearing but still just really steep trajectory on the track line very red kind of very ugly looking with ETH honestly u and then moving on to Salana we can see Salana is a little bit of a different picture here all all of a sudden quite a bit different in fact Salana has managed to poke above its track line track is now green um three green dots in a row we've got our first green candle and we've got a um well it's funny this is a reversal signal to the upside side that was kind of invalidated immediately by a subsequent higher higher high. So, and the RSI looks much much stronger too. So, right now Salana of of the ones that I've looked at so far of the majors, Salana is showing quite a bit of strength comparatively. Um, you know, back above its track line is pretty significant and uh three green dots and green candle. So, right now it's technically ticking all the boxes. Green candle, green dot, green track line. Um, you know, the only thing we need to see next is some some additional closes above the line. Uh, and we need to see the line itself, you know, rotate back to the upside. But Salana's looking pretty good. Now, to be fair, it's kind of done this a couple times here. I mean, we had a poke above it here and it broke back down. We had a poke above it here that broke back down, too. So, we'll see. We'll see how it plays out. but it's had a a habit here of showing decent relative strength compared to the other major. Um, moving on to SUI. Unfortunately, SUI doesn't look as good. SU looks a lot like Ethereum, uh, in that it's actually very much like Ethereum, in fact. Um, you know, kind of all the signatures red red across the board. U, we did have a a reversal signal here that did not get confirmed. So, we've had some noise here in terms of bottoming reversal signals, but they're just not not really holding up. They're still proving to be just kind of noise. Uh, thus far, we do have a nice bullish divergence on the RSI. So, this tells us at least that the downward pressure is waning some, but that's about all we have to go on here with um at the moment, and that's unfortunately not not a ton. So, um, looking at Tron, Tron's kind of had a nasty nasty correction, too. Um, we know Tron has been generally stronger than most, but, um, it, you know, rolled up and then reversed and kind of ran right back down to its lows again. So, um, I'm not sure what's going on there, but Tron's Tron's risk off at the moment across the board. And then XRP, XRP continues to look pretty ugly, too. like XRP um it's I it's actually setting lower lows. It actually looks worse than Ethereum uh and Salana and Suite. It's continuing to set lower lows and it's almost gaining strength to the downside. So XRP um not a great look honestly at the moment. And then the same thing with BNB.
>> I'm sorry.
>> Yeah, BNB too not as bad as XRP. like it's largely been holding its sideways range, but it is starting to break down out of it to the downside, which actually is a little bit better than maybe even uh ETH and and SUI, but um and we've got, you know, we've got some exhaustion here. We've got a D mark 9 um and a potential bullish bullish divergence. So, we'll see how this goes, but um it's still early days as far as that. So yeah, the majors, like I said, my my bigger point, the majors are all looking pretty weak right now outside of Salana showing perhaps the most relative strength across the the top 10. Um well, not including not counting hype. Um yeah, I I think it's really in terms of the top 10, we're looking at Hype obviously as the most as the strongest and then uh Salana being a distant second still, I would say, to to Hyperlid. I mean, it's yes, it looks okay, but it definitely is not showing anywhere near the strength that that Hyperlid is.
>> Yeah, I think we're seeing the Salana look okay is because very like very recently, I think even just like as of this week, it's been a little resurgence in meme coins. Uh like because Anom had a meme coin drop on Salana that just ripped as well. So, I think that has a lot to do with what we're seeing there. And then some of the other meme coins got a bump off of that Ansom memecoin pump. Um, can we go back to the XRP chart really quickly? I just want to see what its current price is and how far we're off of the XRP all-time high.
>> So, uh, current price is a$1 five and then let's zoom out to the weekly. Oops. So all-time high was unless actually hold on let me look at a an older chart so I can get the whole price history here. Um oh right okay I kind of remember this now. It sort of double double topped. So it peaked way back here in >> 2018. It peaked at high 331 and then here last year 3 oh 365. Okay. So, this was the true all-time high uh this this past year. So, >> yeah, 365. So, we're down uh let's see exactly how far >> at the moment we're down 72% off the off the high.
>> It's not I mean it's not great obviously, but um
>> Right.
>> Okay. Yeah. I wanted to just get on record my theory that XRP is absolutely going to have a VC pump at some point. I don't know when it is, but I feel like they always do. So, yeah, just getting that just getting that on record when it happens.
>> I'm curious.
>> Okay, Chris, sorry. Go ahead.
>> Hold on. I want to look at something just real quick with XRP. Um,
>> okay. It's kind of lost that. So, I'm I've I've spoken quite a bit. Um, hold on. This is a the wrong chart to look at this with real quick. I've spoken quite a bit how uh the the XRP Bitcoin price would always get up to like this level here, this big red line that I had denoted. And I remember way back when it first did, you know, in kind of the end of November, uh I kept shouting out saying this has proven to be really strong resistance uh for the XRP Bitcoin ratio for going back several years. And in the end, that held true. that held to be that ended up being the same and proved out this time around. So, um yeah, when it gets up in this range, you know, it's probably time to to to rotate out of XRP uh and at least back into Bitcoin or back into whatever. But, uh it it has not significantly broken out of this range. I mean really since se 2017 2017 you know and it it blew way up out of it uh held above it for a long time but then ever since it lost that range uh in the bare market in 2019 it has never uh materially broken out of this ratio ever since then. So um and that held true again this cycle.
>> All right. Uh question from Jordan on the water. Are we still SPX fans? Um, yes, SPX is, uh, continuing to be relevant. Uh, they're continuing to make videos. They're continuing to have in-person meetups. U Miad still talks about it. There's lots of regular podcasts about it. Um, I don't know if I want to pull up the chart. Uh,
>> he knows what he's doing. He knows he knows what he's trying to get you into. I I'll just say it's showing it's showing solid relative strength. It's still in the conversation. Um if you want to look at a chart, you can look at a chart on your own, but uh it yes, it is relevant. Uh we are still S&P fans.
>> It hasn't lost any of its mojo.
>> Can we take a look at the circle chart? I know it's not, >> you know, it is technically crypto, but yeah, they had that news come out about what the open USD uh stable coin and basically showing that Circle wasn't going to be minting um basically the new supply of stable coins and Circle has um since corrected, but I wanted to get your take on uh on the chart. So here's here it is on the weekly. Looking at it through this indicator we can we can see that it you know isn't going well. Um we had you know it was holding it holding up for a while. We started to get green I'm sorry we started to get red dots which as as I keep saying is a precursor to a larger trend reversal. It it was building momentum to the downside. And then finally, just this this very week, for the first time in Circle's history in this indicator, we now have a red candle uh on the weekly. So that's that's how circle is going. As far as this goes, let's look at it on the daily. Um yeah, I mean, it's it's broken down. So like it it hel it set a support level here that it has now broken down through. It tried to set a bottoming signal. It actually did close above it. So, it did confirm this bottom signal, but then kind of immediately broke back down uh just a few days later and broke through it. So, now we're we're firmly entrenched in in downtrend territory at this point. It's, you know, red red track line, red dots, red candles. Um we do have a a reversal flag poking up at the moment, but I don't know given the weekly, I don't I don't have a ton of confidence in that. So, um, yeah, I mean, Circle not a not not great right now. I I the it circle's tricky as an investment for me because it really is just so entrenched in in the whims of of crypto, you know, it's like and it it's hard because like I really as a narrative I you know I wanted a way to invest in stable coins because stable coins are as we know one of the few really solid product market fits with blockchain technology that have emerged since since its sort of inception. And so, and I always thought, man, if I could just invest in stable coins, you know, we'd all be rich because that's where there's so much money in there. There's so much revenue in there. And yet, you look at the price of Circle and it's just it's like it's stuck in this sort of memecoin >> narrative, you know, cycle unfortunately, where it's like it doesn't really matter how much money they're making. Um, it's just the chart the charts all over the map. And so it's like as as Bitcoin does, so too does Circle. And I don't know that that's actually fair because again, we know that this is a very viable business model and it's doing well. So yeah, I don't know. I I don't know what to make of that, unfortunately.
>> Yeah, Jordan had a great question about how this could impact Coinbase's price, right? because Coinbase are famously involved with Circle. But it's interesting because Coinbase, they are one of the major backers of this Open USD stable coin as well. So now I'm thinking, is Coinbase the the play for your exposure into stable coins?
>> Well, and that's a good point, and it might be. Um, I mean, to be fair, Coin is a better looking chart. Uh, actually, I'm curious. Let's compare compare the two. Um Oops. I don't think that's the right Oh, no. That's right. Okay. So, yeah. Um well, yeah, I mean, it's kind of been regaining some ground. Uh Coinbase has largely outperformed it. It did go on a a dip here uh you know at the beginning of the year, but I think it's kind of recovered that clearly and it's it's trending back up again. The weekly track line has trended back up. So coin Coinbase has been the better chart, the better stock to hold, the better investment, I guess. Um and yeah, I think like you said, I think that um maybe it is the better play in terms of stable coin exposure. Uh I mean there's a lot more going on. Obviously, Coinbase has a ton of different revenue streams. So, it's not a pure stable coin play like Circle is. Um, and I don't know how much you can factor that into this chart because I mean they're making money, like I said, all over the map from all kinds of different things from institutional holdings, from ETFs, um, from treasury, you know, yields, from from Circle, from just trading fees, from retail, um, from custody, all all kind staking.
>> Makes me like it more, honestly.
>> I know. I mean, they've got they've got loads of revenue streams, uh, for sure. and they're very diversified and they're doing a good job at being diversified and so you know props to them for that and that's probably reflected in the price here. Um
>> did you say aerodyome as well?
>> Aerody there as well. Yeah.
>> And and base chain I mean also so like you know they they all of that stuff. So um yeah, I mean, and what are they off the how far down are they sort of 25 off the peak? I mean, well, they peaked actually in July, but let's see how far down they've come. Probably not that far. Well, 66%. Not as bad as Bitcoin. Uh, still not great, but um yeah. So, I don't know. Is coin the the the the lower volatility way to have exposure to the crypto market? I don't know. if if a if a 66% draw down is you're fine with that in terms of low volatility then then sure I guess go for it but um yeah, I don't know um obviously they're so heavily tied to the crypto market so they are going to to experience the same pains as crypto will but like on the upside when crypto starts ticking up the fact that they've added so many different revenue streams um and now that they're the back now that they're like all they have their hands all over the stable coin ecosystem system between Circle, now OpenUSD, and then just capturing everything that goes on on their platform. Anyway, I can't help but think they're like corning of the crypto world. Am I crazy?
>> You're not wrong. No, not at all. I think that makes total sense. Uh they, you know, they're they they they're in every sort of aspect of crypto. Um and and pretty soon they're going to be trading uh per you know, you'll be able to trade per crypto. They
>> prediction markets. Yeah, prediction markets, too. So, they've got their hands in everything. And um you know, I like you said, as crypto does, so too does Coinbase. Uh plus, I mean, of course, too,
You know, I'm sure that a large reason why this stock is down at the moment has to do with the fact that there's so much less trading volume going on right now. There's way less retail trading going on right now than there was, you know, later later last year in all of 2025. So, um that's reflected in the price, too.
Obviously, the revenues is going the revenues are going to move as the crypto cycle moves. So, they're a boom and bust stock in that sense. Uh, having their diversified revenue streams will help mute that volatility somewhat, but um it's still going to no matter what, it's going to be subject to the the boom and bust cycle of of crypto. So, um yeah, I don't know where we're going with that, but yeah.
Well, well, just where where we're going now is like me personally after today, I'm adding coin coin to my watch list in general. Yeah. Um, of things that I might look to be adding once uh once I feel a little more confident on the uptick. Uh, I I really like it, especially with that stable coin exposure, aerodyome base, and all their other revenue streams. Uh, it seems pretty attractive to me.
So, here's a >> obviously not right now. It's down 60% and crypto is, you know, not doing so great. But yeah, >> here is a Coinbase Bitcoin chart. Um, which is, I think, interesting to look at, too. Uh, it's largely been sideways, uh, with Bitcoin really since 2022. I mean, it it started out a little bit higher. It lost some steam and it's been a a higher beta to Bitcoin itself ever since then. um it's just kind of oscillated up and down, but it's largely tracked sideways.
So, I don't know. Are you then better off just holding Bitcoin? I I'm not sure. I guess it it depends on which which sort of world you want to operate in, whether you want to be cryptonative or or tradi native, but I don't know. This will be interesting to see what happens when, you know, we have a breakout. But to be fair, you know, I mean, all of 2023 and 2024 when Bitcoin was making the bulk of its gains in this in this sort of four-year cycle that we're in, um, Coin largely held pace with it in terms of its its percentage gains. So, I don't know. It's interesting, >> but also Coin didn't have those. They've added additional revenue streams since then. So, maybe we'll see something, you know, a little bit better. Uh I'm interested in seeing how this plays out for sure now though.
Um >> I agree with you. I think that's true. I think one thing if you are going to do this, if anyone is going to do the coin play, make sure you are keeping an eye on the coin Bitcoin chart so that you know if you're actually better off holding coin and not just Bitcoin. So um >> right, well said. Yeah. Yeah. Uh don't just go blindly, guys. Uh that's we'll be charting it though, I think, uh as well. uh because I'm going to be very curious to see how Bitcoin or coin uh does going forward. Uh Chris, is there anything else you like or anything uh else that's interesting you in the in the world of crypto or otherwise?
Um I mean, no. Oh, let's talk about Canton. It it had an interesting uh breakdown which I wasn't I wasn't kind of expecting because it had been sort of generally trending upwards and doing this sort of very very shallow cup and handle pattern and I thought maybe it was going to come back up and get back up to this sort of 20 cent level where it peaked last time but it actually broke down. um it didn't get up there and in fact it broke down before it even got to this this previous uh you know high here and now we've got a full-on trend reversal basically on the daily time frame we've got it went from fullon green to full-on red you know with all the all the boxes so like I don't know what happened I wasn't really paying attention to to the behind the scenes with this but as I was going through my watch list today I did notice this because I've been kind of looking for a bit of a breakout here as like a potential entry and um we we didn't get that. We got the opposite of that. So, uh now I feel like I need to kind of dig in a little bit and see what actually happened here because this was a pretty big wick down uh that happened yesterday. In fact, it was, you know, at one point it was down whatever several percent. It it only finished the day down a little over 2%, but um it was down quite a bit. So, um something something changed here and I don't know what it is.
Well, that's uh stay tuned for next week and uh on next week's episode, we'll find out what it is. Chris, uh it's been another great TA show. Um we have some we have some, you know, positives to take away from this, but uh I think, you know, just stay the course. Don't don't go crazy on anything that goes, you know, super up or super down, right? Um that's kind of what what we're saying here. Uh we'll be back on Monday for our uh world according to AI show where we will talk some of the AI trades and we'll look at corning as well. Uh but until then Chris, what do you have in the don't [ __ ] this up motto for us.
So I will I will leave you with this. It's kind of funny. Don't don't read into it too much, but uh at the end of my interview with Rect Capital earlier today, um we were making the comment how it's interesting how kind of at the peaks and the and the the bottoms of each, you know, bull market and bare market, we got this we got some wild crazy breakdown event, you know, or like a black swan type event. I remember if you remember in October, we had the the breakdown. If you remember at the end of the 2022 bare market, we had FTX collapse and uh his comment was just that you know as we get to these extremes in the both in the markets whether it's to the high or to the downside it generally can sometimes serve as a mechanical catalyst for a black swan event that produces the final capitulation. And so he then was like that said we haven't had one yet. we may be due for a black swan event to happen in the next one to four months that sort of cements the final low of this of this bare market. And so um it it will play out uh it would be consistent with the previous cycles for that to be the case. Maybe we'll be lucky this time and we don't get that. But it was just an interesting observation that he made. And uh yeah, maybe we got a black swan to look forward to here for uh uh you know, the one final fire sale, then it'll be time to go all in and and load up your bags and get it as cheap as you can. Um and that's all it's going to be. If if it is, think about it as a buying opportunity, not as a doom and gloom, you know, nuclear event or anything like that. So maybe it's not the end of the world necessarily. Obviously, we don't want some company to implode all at FTX and take a bunch of people's money with it. That would be terrible. I'm not I'm not advocating for that. But we'll see. Maybe it's something to do with Michael Sailor. Who knows?
Oh god. There we go. I'll leave you with that.
All right, guys. Uh before we get anything else that's gonna, you know, make us nervous, we're gonna end here. Uh, have a great week everyone. Enjoy the World Cup matches. We're starting the round of 32. Um, don't [ __ ] this up until Monday. Have a great week.