Transcription
Alrighty. Today is Wednesday, the 24th of September, 2025. I'm Jason Shapiro, Crower Report. Uh, welcome.
So, today I thought was a lot better than yesterday. Um, you know, I talked a lot yesterday about how with the stock market going down, the things that we would have expected to go down with it did not. And the things we would have expected based on what has been correlated and where, um, positioning has been crowded. Um, you would think that the crowded things would go down more, um, than the things that are not crowded. And yesterday that did not happen, and that was therefore not a very good day, um, for me and my process and my thought process. And but today we went right back to it, you know. And I say that because, okay, stocks went down again. All right, that's fine. We know stocks don't go up every day. Um, but are the things that we would be looking to hedge stocks with based on positioning and and sentiment, did they go down as well or more hopefully? Um, and today they did. You know, stocks went down a little bit, that's fine. Um, but gold, which is where we see the crowdedness now, went down a lot more. You see, yesterday it didn't go down, and it was like, well, what the hell. Well, today it caught up, went down a lot more, right? Um, and that made sense to me. Okay.
Um, bonds, I wouldn't say went down more, but at least went down. So if you were trying to hedge a long stock portfolio with, you know, things like, well, stocks are going up because of this whole narrative about lower rates, and therefore higher rates maybe are the danger to stocks. You could have been hedging with with the bonds, and that didn't work yesterday, as we saw, but it did work today. And same thing with the dollar. Um, along with the narrative of lower rates is the narrative of lower dollar. So if you, again, I'm not looking to get short stocks because the positioning just is nowhere near where I'd want it to be before I get short stocks, but I could get short gold and I could also get long dollar. So, you know, did the dollar, uh, do what we would want it to do, um, as a hedge? And the answer is yes. And in fact, if you look, the dollar actually bottomed on on Fed day and now has made a new high since then. So, this has been the best hedge. Um, and you can see how crowded suddenly they've gotten. Right there is where they got crowded right before that, right? Um, so that makes sense to me that the dollar long is arguably the the best hedge to the the stock long. Um, that's working. Um, and when I say it's the best, it's a because of positioning and b because it's working. You know, the market is saying that that is right. So, that's my number one thing. You can see the euro did not go down yesterday, but kind of got hit pretty hard today. And you can see where they are crowded there. Um, so much better day today. In other words, um, for this whole thought process, it's not going to work every day, clearly, but as long as it works over time, we should we should all be okay.
Um, interesting that energy, um, isn't making a move up here. It's made a few false moves before, clearly. Um, really hasn't gone anywhere, but today was an update right from the get-go and and and continued higher. Um, we know that this is the least long. These people have been in in in crude oil for for a long time here. Um, so on an index basis, it's showing them, you know, short. The least long equals short on an index. Um, so interesting that that's happening there. Um, in particular, given where the positioning is. And, uh, I suppose somewhat interesting as well that that Bitcoin had a good day today. Bitcoin has been trading horribly in the face of the equity, the last part of the equity rally. And now equity sold off, and gold sold off, um, and bonds sold off, and the dollar rallied, and yet Bitcoin went up. So Bitcoin finally had a good day. Does that mean anything going forward? Not necessarily. But if you are trading Bitcoin from the long side, it certainly is the first day we've seen in a while where it's done something like that, where it's had a positive sort of tape, um, despite what arguably could have been a negative tape. So, so that's a good sign there finally for Bitcoin.
All right. Um, and that's really it, you know, that's the main, uh, the main thoughts today. I hope, uh, all that helps. It was a, a interesting day and, um, we have obviously GDP coming out, um, tomorrow. Um, and then we have the PCE coming out, uh, later in the week. And so those are kind of the, um, the big things. Yeah. GDP tomorrow and and and PC on Friday. So, let's see how, how, of course, the data comes out and, and b how the markets react to it. I I still think we're starting to get a little bit long in the tooth with the idea of, um, of lower rates driving everything. You know, um, it's not a big surprise at this point. You know, rates are, people are betting on on rates coming down again in October and December. So, there's no big surprise there anymore. So, why would there be a market surprise? Um, and we're probably getting a little bit long in the tooth on the AI thought as well. So, what's going to be the next driver? Um, will be interesting to know. Um, and hopefully by watching how the markets react to this different data come out, that will help us figure that out. Okay. So, I look forward to that and, uh, we'll talk again tomorrow. All right. Thank you. Please like the video if you like it. Um, that would help us out. All right. Thank you, and we'll talk again soon.
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