Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin's battle for the bull market. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com.
The battle for the bull market has begun, as Bitcoin is sitting just above its bull market support band. Now, we talked a few weeks ago, about a month ago or so, and we said that Bitcoin would likely be at the bull market support band, uh, in September. Well, here we are. In fact, Bitcoin got to the bull market support band maybe a couple of days before September started, three or four days. But regardless, the general sort of the general pattern is playing out, right? And the general pattern is this: where you have a high in August and a low in September, right? A high in August and a low in September.
Now, technically speaking, Bitcoin was red in August, right? So, if you look at the monthly candle, you can see Bitcoin was, in fact, red in August. It dropped about 6 and 1/2%. But it's also true that Bitcoin found an all-time high in August as well. And that is still consistent with the general path we talked about. And I think this is one of those things where don't miss the forest for the trees, you know? Don't harp on, you know, the monthly candle when ultimately the pattern has still worked out, right? And the pattern is a very similar thing where you have a high in August and a low in September, right? That's what we saw in 2017 and in 2020. Again, a high in August and then a low in September. Again, in 2021, you had a high early September and then a low by late September, and then the bull market continued.
So, as I said before, let's not miss the forest for the trees. Bitcoin set a high in August, and I think the most likely outcome is for Bitcoin to set a low in September. Now, there is a chance, and hopefully this is how it plays out. There is a chance that the low could be in on the very first day of September because technically speaking, and of course, being technically correct is the best way to be correct. Um, the low that Bitcoin had on September 1st at 107.3K is actually lower than any price that Bitcoin had in August. So, you could argue that a high in August was achieved, and therefore a low, a local low, will likely form in September. The only question is, is the low in or not?
You know, I think we're going to essentially see the battle commence for the bull market, right? Hopefully, Bitcoin just holds support here at the bull market support band for the next few weeks. And if it can do that, like it did, say, in 2020, where it held support at the bull market support band, or in 2017, or in 2021, right? Or in 2013, right here. If it could hold support at the bull market support band, then it would set up a really nice rally to end the market cycle in the fourth quarter of the year, which, remember, is when all prior market cycle tops have occurred. This is November of 2013, December of 2017, November of 2021. And so that would set up for a final rally into the market cycle top, assuming we can hold here at the bull market support band.
So, essentially, what I think is going to happen is there's going to be a battle between the bulls and the bears to hold at the bull market support band. My guess is that a new all-time high for Bitcoin would likely not occur in September, but it's possible to have one in October. A lot of times, you know, you'll still see September form a low, but it doesn't mean it has to form a low on the very last day of the month. Just like in August, it didn't have to form the high on the very last day of the month, right? So, the high can form sometime during the month, and then the market could go down. Just like in September, the low could form at any point during the month and then start to go up. In fact, in 2017, you know, Bitcoin was already heading back up by late September. In 2020, you know, Bitcoin, uh, bounced in early September and then retested the bull market support band again and then went up. In 2021, right? You can see there was a little bit of a bounce off the bull market support band and then a deeper drop, basically of that 50-week moving average by late September, and then off into the market cycle top.
So, I think the way to think about this right now is the battle for the bull market has begun, and it's taking place at the bull market support band. If Bitcoin is unable to hold it, for whatever reason, this is one of those things where hope for the best, plan for the worst, right? Let's hope we just hold support here. If we do hold support here, then it would set up a a more attractive end-of-year rally because then we don't have to go through the whole, you know, reparation of dropping below the bull market, right? If you look at the last couple of years, when Bitcoin drops below it, it then can take some time to then get back above it. And especially if you do operate deterministically about the four-year cycle, then it means the top should be before the end of the year. So, by going below the bull market support band, it would then require, you know, some type of, um, consolidation period down at those levels below the 21-week EMA but above the 50-week SMA, right? And so, in the event of a drop below the bull market support band, it still doesn't mean that the cycle has to be over. There still is a chance that Bitcoin would then just simply find support at the 50-week moving average, like it did the last couple of years.
So, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. Like, if that actually ends up happening, we'll cross that bridge and talk more about it. But in the short term, we'll see if Bitcoin can hold support here at the bull market support band. If Bitcoin can stay above the 20-week SMA for the entirety of September, then it should set up a nice finale rally, uh, for the market cycle. If it goes below the 20-week SMA, um, you still could easily have a rally in October, but the gains might not be as much as if it could just hold support here. Because then again, if it falls down here, it's got to then spend a few weeks down there and then come back up, repair itself above the 20-week SMA, you know, hold it as support for a couple of weeks, right? You can see this what happened over here. Um, you know, you get above it, you consolidate for a little bit. That would just basically add a month, a month and a half of further consolidation if that were to happen.
Um, but I think right now, it it makes sense. You know, the way to sort of play this market is to be bullish on on dominance, on Bitcoin dominance, and to say, you know what, Bitcoin leads the bull market. If Bitcoin holds support at the 20-week, dominance should go up as Bitcoin rallies to all-time highs potentially in October. And if we fail to hold the 20-week, then if Bitcoin drops, say, 10%, altcoins will drop a lot more. So, I, I think Bitcoin is is the much safer play right now. And it, and I still think it will outperform most altcoins between September through late October, early November. So, that's the way I think you play it. Uh, and we'll see. We'll see who's successful here over the next few weeks and then adjust accordingly.
If you guys like the content, again, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out, uh, the sale Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.