Transcription
Hey everyone, welcome to another episode of the Bald Lie podcast. It is myself, Samson Folk and Louis Zman. It's our bi-weekly podcast wherein we try and figure out what is going on with the Raptors, good or bad. The last episode we had to figure out a lot of the bad. This episode we got to figure out a lot of the good. They are what, six and one in their last however many. That's pretty good. Uh by the time I record with Train X, they could be nine and five. They are fifth in half court offense in the NBA, sixth in overall offense, 13th in overall defense. Their point differential is eighth. They are expected per cleaning the glass to win 54 games based on schedule and stats interface. I don't know how they calculate it. Lewis, we might be covering a good Raptors team. How are you feeling?
I'm feeling really good. You know what? You know what's really fun about the whole thing? We are watching a Raptors team that is for the first time in a long time more than the sum of its parts, which is super fun to talk about. Like you're trying to look at, let's say you want to describe the Thunder and why they're so good at offense. It's like, oh yeah, Shay Gilg Alexander, you know, you try to describe the Raptors and why they're so good at offense. You can't do it quite like that. you have to get deeper because it's it's a collaborative sort of enshing of concepts. It's more fun to discuss. It's it's more fun to watch, I think, than just like, you know, where success will come from. It's been very enjoyable.
The cool thing about the Raptor is that they're getting so much from so many different places. a lot of cooks in the kitchen, but they have the hands uh corner or whatever all that kitchen terminology is to make sure people move smoothly throughout without interrupting the process of somebody else. They've reached flow state with a bunch of intersecting people. At least that's seems to me
In a kitchen is just the cook screaming hands. Did you ever have you ever worked in a kitchen?
No. It's one of the worst things about me. I've never worked in the kitchen.
I uh I still have Well, I I was front of house. I never worked in a kitchen. I guess I was a dishwasher.
Pretty boy. Pretty boy front of house.
Dishwasher. That counts.
Sure.
Um but yeah, I still have server dreams. I still have nightmares where people scream hands at me. Anyway. Anyway,
So the Raptors, they're nine guys who play the most minutes. We can all think of them off the top of our head probably. Nobody's below 58% true shooting. Uh the lowest is I think Grady at 58.1% Branding Group's at 58.2%. 58% that might be league average about where it's at. It might be a little lower, a little higher, but they're scoring efficiently from a lot of different places. They have really figured out who's supposed to be taking shots when. The faster pace has benefited everybody. We've discussed the myself and Trey on like at large have discussed the offense quite often. you and I. What we wanted to do today was look more specifically at the point guards who there's been a lot of praise for Jamal and I think rightfully so. We'll get into why. There's also been a a boomerang effect going back and forth on Emanuel who's had a brilliant last three games but had a, you know, a bit nightmarish start. Why did you want to talk point guards? Let's start there. Because I think for modern offense to work in the NBA, it has to stem from point guard play. Do you remember you must when we did um minute basketball, we wrote state of the guard, state of the state of the wing, state of the big and yeah, guard play has never been more important. And you're looking at a Raptors team that is led offensively by three wings. three wings who lack in in some ways, not others, guard skills. None of them have all the guard skills, which is unique. And so I think a lot depends on the guards. Well, they can't be ball dominant guards. It's it's a remarkably difficult position to be in. You have to be a point guard, do point guard stuff without seeing the ball like a point guard does. And so we're looking at um a unique challenge for the point guards of the Raptors, but also a unique um uh approach to surmounting that challenge and how the two of Jamal Shed and Emanuel Quickley do it. It's really fascinating.
They've both had to, I guess, occupy really strange roles. Emanuel has been at his best when it's less, let's say, point guardy. Jamal has been at his best when he is very point guardy, but it's coming after this like first action. So neither of these things I think are regular and you would expect offenses to get really great stuff from their first action whereas the Raptors are like, well, we kind of churn through the first action, then we see where we are on the second action. The best offenses typically get what they want early and they get it good. The Raptors are getting a lot of that second action stuff. And to explain that a little bit more thoroughly, who do you want to start with here? Because Emanuel Quickley, he's averaging like it's 60% from the field, 55% from three over the last three games. That's a tremendously small sample, but and like five and five. He's been playing very strongly lately. We've looked into the numbers. There's also Jamal who has numbers across the full season. It's been great. He's one of the best quote unquote assist men off the bench in the NBA. He is somehow almost leading the Raptors in assists despite playing like 16 minutes off the bench. Where do you want to go here? Where do we point the the the compass first? I guess the compass doesn't point anywhere.
It's got to be Emanuel.
Okay, Emanuel, quickly. Last time you and I talked about him, we focused in on his shortcomings. And the shortcomings were very short. He wasn't doing anything well. And some of it was us hitting home hallmarks of critiques that we've had. You know, picking up the dribble too early, not a very inventive passer, struggling to set others up, and then things that went away that we always expected to be there, like the three-point shooting. Now he is playing in my mind a little bit more of a streamlined role that doesn't require as much creation from him, but where the gunning and three-point volume has returned. He's been able to keep it up in a few inventive ways. And now we're looking at a guy who's kind of getting into the offense at uh every opportunity that he can as a scorer. And it's been tremendous for the Raptors who really need that lately, especially with Ingram and R.J. in particular slumping as scorers the past few games. Seems like a simplified rule. You know, it seems like they said you're just stop trying to do so much and it's working way better. Um, what are we looking at?
Well, I'm I'm just putting this stuff on screen so people can see, but if you want me to explain the video as we go on just to give people information up front. So, we were lamenting IQ's transition scoring the last time we talked about this. I will just say very quickly uh expeditiously, Emanuel Quickley had 37 transition points in his first nine games. In his last three, he's had 31. He has been gunning like hell from the three-point line in transition. He has worked himself into a few more catch and shoot looks that last handful of games. He's been pretty good at hunting them, and the Raptors have been better at turning defenses over to create those looks for him. But I think by and large the huge difference between quickly early on and quickly now is just shotmaking. And even further to that point, he in the last two games has gotten six buckets, 12 points out of the short mid-range and he's shooting like 70% on those. So what came around for Emanuel Quickley, uh, he started banging triples the way that he's meant to and then some. You know, 55% is something serious. And he also has been getting the floater to go. When you're that efficient, everything starts to look better. When you're as as inefficient as he was, the small things you do well don't matter. It came around. It's his season is now back to being kind of like normalized. That's my view on the point guard for the Raptors.
There's a couple more things I think. One, he's pump faking less. Start of the year, he was pump faking out of semicontested threes a lot. Uh he's not. He's taking semicontested threes. That's awesome. He should be he should be taking pretty contested threes. Like a contested three from him from 28 ft is a good outcome for an offensive possession. Um I was looking at his touch numbers just terms of what they're they're changing and one thing that I didn't expect on the year his touches have gone up from last season. We also thought Ingram would take touches from from everyone, but probably quickly most of all. Last season, Quickley had 64 touches a game roughly in 28 minutes. This season, he is at 72 touches in 32 minutes. So, you know, minute-wise, it it's a lot closer than just the raw numbers, but his touches have gone up. His touch time, his dribbles per touch have gone down. So, he's the bring up ball handler more. I think Scotty was doing that more last season, but he is also initiating sets and getting off it like get just straight to the wing on Ingram coming out of a pin down something like that. Get off the ball and hunt open space without it. He's doing that more in these plays you're showing. He is forming up like this this pass from Dick. He's forming up to his space. He's not floating to be a reset option. Brandon's doing that. He's hunting threes. I think that has changed from the beginning of the year a little bit more than just shot making.
When you start hitting shots, it's and it's what you know, Darko said after every single game, we we don't care if he's missing. He's a great shooter. He'll keep shooting. That's I don't think there has there's any analyst in the market that said, you know, stop shooting threes. Maybe some fans because fans, dude, when I watch baseball, I'm like, why can't Vlatty hit nothing but grounders? He's an incredible hitter, right? He had a, you know, historic playoff run. I'm a fan. I get upset. But like analysts whose job I don't think anybody was suggesting like, "Hey, quickly you can't shoot threes because now you're a bad shooter." Everyone was just waiting on what we've seen the past three games, which is torid shot making from downtown. Um, the ball handling stuff, I can't remember if I said it explicitly, but I always wondered coming into this season like, hey, we're looking at a Raptors team and a darko offense that these he loves his point guards. I wasn't so sure if Quickley's touches were going to go down. I thought maybe the points per game would go down, which has been the case early. And we'll see we're seeing the three-point attempt rate going up. That's all stuff that I love. I love the shift in tone. I love the shift in the smaller, I guess, aspects of his game. And when the three-point shot goes down like this, it's it's obviously great. Is there I mean, there's some playmaking. I didn't clip any of it for the viewers, but some of the playmaking has improved. This was even when he was the stats weren't really there. He started to, I guess, elevate a little bit more. He elongated drives by keeping his dribble alive more often. And just in terms of a Raptors offense that likes to attack the second side so often and is looking for guys like Ingram and RJ and Scotty to just carve out a small sliver of space that they can't guarantee on the first action because it's typically geared towards one guy. You break the defense open, you get a rotation in. Now it could be anybody's job. anybody can attack from anywhere. Quickly has done a better job of stirring the drink. Even if I think a lot of his success in the past handful of games has been just about like coldblooded shooting, which is when you're one of the best shooters in the world, which volume, all that kind of stuff. He's in the top 30 or 20. That's pretty good for Emanuel. I've been pretty happy with it.
Yeah. Yeah. It It's been It's been really fun defensively, too. I think a little bit of an uptick. He had a uh a steel fronting a big like on a little mismatch. Uh he's just I mean obviously the defense has just been a full 180. Just everyone has come around but quickly I think especially has settled into a much cleaner role. I think we're finally looking at theory meeting practice in terms of his offball defense actually offering a little bit of teeth. Also, see, I I like to know what numbers are saying explicitly, and I gave this stat on the podcast that Trey and I did. You know, how synergy it sorts into high pressure defense, low pressure defense. And the Raptors are literally polar opposites. They went they were the highest pressure defense in terms of volume when Trey and I talked about it. And they had the worst points per chance. Meaning, when they played high pressure defense, they're getting killed. when they played low pressure defense, they had the best points per chance defensively. And that so how Synergy tracks it, which I don't actually know, that has changed so that the Raptors have been playing more low pressure defense lately, less high pressure defense. Now I go and watch the clips that they have allocated and it I can't tell the difference. a low pressure defensive possession for the Raptors that they had allocated was when they were doubling like 42 feet away from the rim and it looked no different in terms of where they picked up. I don't know how Synergy is tracking this or organizing this. So, as far as I'm concerned, those numbers cannon fodder. They say the Rapids are playing less of it and that low pressure is better for them, but as far as what's on tape, I have no idea. I don't know if it's the lowest man where he sits in the defense. I don't know what rubric, what whatever, but to my mind, it looks like it's a little bit less press. It looks like it's a little bit friendlier for the guards on the roster and the bigs don't have to cover quite as much space, although it's tough to track that stuff as a just a singular viewer. What have you made of the defense? Like you said, it's been a 180. Is there anything you feel comfortable and confident that you've noticed has changed?
I'm confident that the bigs are at least half a foot lower in actions than they were before. I'm very comfortable saying that.
6 in at the very least
at the very at the bare minimum. And uh it has benefited it. There is someone there to help the guards when they're when they get beat. And people still get beat. But but when you have someone present to next rotate, you know, to to push, switch, just there's so many opt. But before there was just nothing. You get beat. Oh, layup. Great. Now there's availability. And I think the guards have done a pretty solid job of reintroducing themselves to the defense after that, which is fine. like if you get beat and a big, you know, takes that option away, if the guard um, you know, x's out or something, not to a shooter, but I I don't know if it's actually called that, but if they stay in the play, that's fine. That's totally fine defense. I think Quickley has done a good job with that. He's he's held up on switches. He's been he has been, I think, a a passable to productive defender um during this last five, six games. I think the number one thing that you mentioned that is my number one difference. You said they stayed in the play.
Yeah,
that I think is the biggest difference between the first handful of games that the Raptors played and the last handful. The Raptors defenders are much better at staying in the play. And saying they stay connected is it might come across as lazy analysis because it's one of the go-tos for how people discuss good defense, but it is meaningful. uh you can't leak out early, you can't give up on plays, and when you have an extra body floating, even if all you're doing is kind of like floating closer to the paint, you just are in a position to jump passing lanes, help disrupt things, even if you're not particularly active. And the Raptors guys have been doing a much better job. Also something of note I think is that Scotty Barnes is hanging around the rim a little bit more often both as a rim rotator and as a rim protector and as a rebounder. This means that Emanuel Quickley whereas he used to be quite low in in the offense to start the or in the defense to start the year. I think he's having more opportunity to leak out and I think they correctly after being one of the lower rated transition offenses in the NBA. Now they're top 10 in terms of points per possession, number one in frequency. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Emanuel Quickley has been absolutely blistering from three in transition the past handful of games. Some of that is because he's getting out early. That also means that guys will have larger driving lanes. He as a handler in transition has been poor. He as an outlet in transition, as a guy who shoots, has been really, really strong. I think the Raptors, the things they've changed on the margins deserve a lot of credit. Is there anything else quickly before we get into the Jamal shed of it?
I think one transition between one to the next, I wanted to I I was looking up some numbers.
Um,
pick and roll handlers.
Yeah. Uh, you know, I think one interesting thing this season is teams are going away from the pick and roll. Obviously, the Heat are doing that. Everyone in the grandmother's talking about that. The Raptors are not that reliant on the pick and roll either. Um, but obviously still a staple. Um, Quickly's pick and rolls very very efficient. Second on the team in possessions, finished out of pick and roll. um scoring by far the best on the team, 1.16 points per possession. It's pull-up shooting. It's it's pull-up shooting. You don't need to have great craft, great artistry if you can hit a pull-up shot with ease. Uh to transition, I think to what the tenor of our conversation will be, um the worst pick and roll initiator tied on the Raptors is Jamal Sh.
Yeah. Uh, and just before we get into that quickly or I will say I really liked this play from the Raptors. So basically what this is is one of their sideline out of bounds plays. And to make the point you're saying that the Raptors aren't necessarily dependent on their pick and roll is that the Raptors love set actions. They love their automatics. They love pistol. They love to bring guys these option screens for Brandon Ingram. They love to come off of staggers. They love to come off of pins. They love split action. They are trying to initiate offense with the pass more often than the dribble, which I think is a correct uh assessment of the offense by Darko. He sees the players there. They have a lot more uh I would say offensive talent than they did in the past, but that doesn't mean they're a strong dribbling team. They use the pass to get to places. They work off ball to get to places. And that's why I want to highlight this sidelines out of bounds play where there is a split action on the weak side to just occupy the defense. Then we're going to be looking at uh coming up and getting the ball. And Quickley is going to ghost a split action and come off of a pin. We've seen them run this twice for points. Quickly hit a three-point shot on both. The coverage was different each time. But this is what Darko is trying to do. He's trying to utilize gravity everywhere he can. He's trying to utilize the pass instead of dribbling. and he's trying to make sure that the Raptors can uh organize offense and and get it that way, which I think is uh I as I said earlier, a good assessment of the offense. One of the best Go ahead. Go ahead.
Props to Darko. Like really, really impressive coaching so far this year. Sorry, please continue.
Yeah, and also I addressed this on the other pod, but the Raptors have two of the best uh sidelines out of bounds scorers in the NBA, RJ Barrett and Brandon Ingram. And some of that is just Brandon being a wizard and some of that is uh R.J. the the set design on these looks are are pretty immaculate. Jamal Shed. So I'll say this as you addressed he is not had he's not had success as a pick and roll ball handler this season. Not really. But he has had tremendous success in winning minutes in creating looks for others. He uh his defense, he's been able to draw a few more of those moving screens. Uh he hasn't given up as much as he did last year. He wins minutes like crazy. When he's out there, he touches the ball a lot. He leaves an indelible mark and he's shooting like 45% from three. Everything that you would want is is happening right now. And I do think it's interesting that he's described by most people, I think, as like an automatic paint touch. He is not touching the paint often at all. Actually, he's cutting his drives short in a way that almost the whole rest of the league doesn't as far as like how often he does it relative to himself. He is killing his drives early and often to pass when others have advantages, not when he's run out of his own. He is not trying to figure out the natural end of his drives as a scorer. He is simply staying on ball and recognizing what can happen with himself as a playmaker. In an offense that has a decent amount of offensive talent, a lot of cooks in the kitchen, and a whole lot of motion, a quick player who can pierce middle and then assess while live on ball has been one of the best assist men off the bench in the NBA. a tremendous tremendous uh addition to what they want to do and his verve for playmaking comes across uh more starkly than anybody else on the roster. I will put it on screen for the uh viewers. Lewis, what have you made of Jamal Shed? When I think of uh an effective point guard, not a star point guard, but an effective point guard, I think of a guy who influences his team's shot profile outside of his own shot profile. And that's what we're seeing with Jamal Shed. You know, we're seeing a guy who doesn't take a ton of layups, who doesn't take a ton of shots, honestly. He's taking over half of his shots from three. He's canning them, but the fact that he's taking, you know, over half of his shots from three isn't huge. He's taking under five shots a game, right? So, it's not like he's really moving the needle out of his own shooting. But when he is on the floor, the Raptors take more than four percentage points of their shots from the rim. He's not a terrific rim finisher, but the team is by virtue of that. when he's playing. The Raptors are taking over five percentage points more of their shots from deep. Again, that is his rapidity in being able to change the defense find shooters. You saw it right there. He's making clean choices with the ball. And even though he himself is not, you know, changing the team as a scorer, he is changing the offense just by virtue of his ability to toggle between these guys, you know, these cooks. Um, he is the uh he is the the the the caller of the line, right? And he's doing an amazing job. That pass especially to Ingram, that's artistry right there. But but other than, you know, art, a lot of it simple. A lot of it's really like simple, easy basketball. Um, but he is just making the right choice. When people talk about old school point guards, that's what we're looking at. We're looking at a point guard who is moving within the flow of the offense, uh, hand on the wheel, guiding it correctly.
So, every play we're showing here, none of these are something you would consider for a point guard really, outside of the last one, which is basically just it's the option screen for audio listeners. I'm very sorry that you're not included in this necessarily, but for video, this is an option screen for Brandon Ingram where he could take a I think it's a cross screen from Jacobe or he can come off a pin from YaKob. He chooses to come off the pin for YaKob and all shed has to do is just toss it to him. That's why uh point guards in the Raptors offense get a lot of assists. Uh they always have because Darko likes to lend his pen to this. But the rest of the plays here, none of these are first action plays. None of them are pick and roll ball handling. All of them are Jamal Shed acting as a floater in the offense and when the ball finds him, he simply pierces the defense and immediately looks to find somebody else. The Raptors, I think, really know what Jamal is trying to do. They trigger a lot of cuts when he is on ball. And you know, there are scripted cuts for offenses. There's a lot of things that you're supposed to be doing, but players also know which guys are willing to pass. Jamal Shed is probably the most willing passer. He and Scotty Barnes on this whole roster. His ability to touch, you know, put the ball down two dribbles, one dribble, and immediately be willing to move off ball. He is he's servicing a lot of stuff here. And the I think the shot quality is pretty good. There's a really fun stat here. He is both the hundth percentile, number one in the NBA in the percentage of drives off of closeouts that end up where he's passing into a two-point attempt. He has the most of those in the whole league. He also is the most efficient at that in the whole league. So, as far as the guy who's like attacking second side and turning it into two-point attempts for his teammates, a lot of these are layups, short little push shots, he's number one in the whole league. That level of step into a game, the ball finds me. I find the offense for the team is really, really unique. They love to cut for him. He's top 20% in the whole NBA at creating two-point looks with passes on his drives. He's one of the bottom five players in the whole NBA at shooting out of drives. This is a guy who is not looking to score ever. As you said, his three-point attempt rate is skyhigh. So, when he puts the ball down, he doesn't care about getting to the rim. He doesn't even care about touching the paint. He's just like, "How do is the defense reacting to me? Let me make a read." It's this is why it's cool to cover a winning team because this kind of stuff is not compelling or interesting. If they lose a bunch of games and you're like, "Oh, this point guard never gets layups, never touches the paint." Everyone would be like, "Oh, that sucks. He's bad." But he's on the number five half court offense. He's on the number six offense. He's a huge part of it. He's what, third on the team in assists. So, this process is very unique. this process is is novel almost. Uh I would say as far as the statistical profile of what's happening here and then if you look deeper at just like the complete differential aspect of what he's doing, there's maybe like three guys in the league who are doing this if that he's very unique right now and he's banging triples. I I've had a blast watching him. I I used the term verve earlier. It's it's been a a real treat. This is what I I mentioned right at the top about being more than the sum of their parts.
You described a player who passes for two-point shots out of the drive. Know who never does that? Emanuel Quickley. And Emanuel Quickley is a guy who can initiate with his pull-up shooting. Who is successful in those sets? And so what happens when you put them together? Magic. So some lineup numbers that I think are really really interesting and and reflect very well on Dark Rakovic. Um Jamal Shed has played 19 total minutes without any of Emanuel Quickley, Scotty Barnes or Brandon Ingram on the floor. The team is not asking him to carry a very large burden. It is alongside of these other players that he is doing that and and it's been very successful. I wrote a piece for 538 a few years ago about stacking point guards. Yep.
Um having three point guards. Um the Raptors obviously don't have three on the roster, but when they play the two, it has been very very successful. Um the two of shed and quickly do a lot that the other doesn't do. They work really really well together. Um they have a net rating uh together of uh plus six, right? in in in 15 minutes. You know, that's nothing huge, but it's only just started being used. There's um a really forwardlooking ability to use these guys together, not just shed and quickly, but these players that some have strengths, some have weaknesses to find ways to blend them. I think one of the laziest points of analysis I saw about the Raptors before the season was their best players all want the ball in the same place.
They are all mid-range players.
I think that is an outcomebased analysis and it's it's it's just one thing like RJ Barrett is not taking his shots the same way as Brennon Ingram at all. like in in at all. And I think one of the joys of looking at the Raptors right now is if that's the way that you understand the way that these guys play, it would never make sense why they're succeeding. You have to go deeper. Which is why it's so fun looking at what Shed has not been good at because for all of his inabilities in some areas, he's been remarkably impactful. That's good. That's fun. I also just on a wider trend thing es when he was with SDPN did this really because WBY it was the year that Webby was playing in France and he started to get all the crazy buzz as a prospect and basically it was s asking a bunch of different people draft people NBA people about what represents and what size represents in the NBA and if like there's a future where the point guard is dead and I remember it is 2022 too. But I was like, "No way." I was like, "Because even though point guards are smaller in stature, the play style that is ingrained in them growing up is of problem solvers." And you'll you always need problem solvers. Jamal Shed is a perfect example of this. He is not threatening. He is simply solving the problem that sits before him. And he's doing it with the pass. A lot of NBA defense, the best ones, are not undone by shot making. they are undone by playmaking and it's because playmaking reads have become quite rott uh they're not that creative because the the NBA has gotten so streamlined for these big jumbo creators. It's a a byproduct of the heliocentric era and it used to be that a LeBron James skip pass broke NBA defense. It was like we couldn't calculate that a 54 mph skip to the corner from a 6-9 guy was we just didn't have it in the defensive bag. Now the defensive responses to things are so overloaded and there's so many hyper athletic guys who can cover ground that the playmaker rather than the shotmaker who can slightly adjust where guys are trying to read your playmaking to go. They're always everyone can read your dribble and know where you're trying to get to and everybody knows where you're trying to get to offensively because we have such streamlined shot charts as well.
So the ability to the change up that is Jamal Shed, the offspe pitch, that is why his playmaking is so effective while representing no teeth as a driver. He's a very unique end to the Raptors, how they're achieving that number five half court offense, the number six offense and doing so against a very tough schedule so far. My I'm happy as hell. I told Trey, I told the fans, the listeners, I'd be hooting and hollering if they beat the Cavs. Hoot holler. Lewis, is there anything else interesting before we move on to I think the man of the hour, Scotty Barnes, who what a treat he's been.
Yeah. So, um I think that's the the shadow looming over all of this, right, is none of it works without Barnes doing what he's been doing. And uh when I said at the beginning, you know, the success is more than the sum of its parts, there's a catalyst, you know, not not the the cause, but the the thing that empowers the reaction. Um Barnes is Barnes is the reason why Shed in many ways has been so successful, the reason why quickly like he is, wow, has he been amazing. Um, just to give you another, um, another sense of these things, uh, shed, uh, without Barnes right now, uh, actually has been very good. Quickly without Barnes, well, it's actually fine. They're finding ways with Ingram. That was that didn't go the way I expected. But, uh, like six minutes, eight minutes, nothing real. Um, let's talk about Barnes because if we're going to talk about point guards that work with flaws, uh, Barnes is the major reason why.
So, Scotty Barnes is uh, as a defender, he's been the most impressive, but I don't want that to undersell how fun I found his offensive process. the game last night against the Cavs. That ability to full throw ahead dribble, get out and run and playmake with his chest up was so impressive. He would grab the ball and start six feet behind his guy and by the time he hit three/arter court, he had the edge. And it's not like I understand Evan Mobley was on the second night of a backto-back I'm pretty sure but the whole Cavs team wasn't and they rested actually no Moy was rested it was yeah right sorry Moy was his guy and Moy got beat down the floor with a live dribble quite often hell yeah to Scotty Jared Allen maybe there's an excuse Donin Mitchell he he also rested Darius Garland I can't wait to see the Raptors play the Cavs when they have Darius but to not get too sidetracked Scotty the pushpace stuff has been incredible He is of the top 20 uh transition scorers in terms of volume in the NBA right now. He's I think the second or third most efficient. Okay. He's been unbelievable. And that stat does not account for his playmaking, which is arguably the best aspect of his transition, the graband go assess fullcourt stuff. He has been full stop one of the best transition players in the whole league. I got a lot of push back because Scotty, as a transition player last year, as a scorer, was 18th percentile. And I said that I thought in my analysis that he was still an elite transition player. And people said, "Well, how could he be? He was 18th percentile." And I said, "That doesn't capture everything." And look at Pascal Seakum. You can see his transition scoring percentile go 90th to 20th. It's based on how you're used. The potential remains. Scotty has unleashed his transition potential that has given him such a healthy floor as an offensive player. Defensively, he is papering over everything. He is the endless bottle of white out that can cover over mistakes. You'll never It's just he's always been there. And then it's the hub stuff on offense, too, as a roller, as a guy who the ball touches his hands. and it's his rapid ball reversal cuz he's mapping the court faster than everybody else. He flips the play so that it's a threeon two and the defense doesn't really have a chance. All this stuff that he's kind of, you know, it's all coalescing for him, he's undoubtedly, if you're selecting an all-star game through the first 12 games, he's on there. If three-point shooting holds, if he really gets to find himself in this Raptors offense and really, really streamline what he wants to do, all NBA is attainable for him this year. He has been so impressive. I I every game I'm excited to watch him.
Yeah. I mean, especially um on a winning team >> like this is the first time >> we're watching him succeed on his team. you know, as a rookie, he went to the playoffs. He was very successful there. But that wasn't his team. That was he was just like a supercharged fourth starter, fifth starter. Like th this is his team. It's built in his image. It's built around his strengths and weaknesses. And uh there was a lot riding on this season. um for everyone on the Raptors, Barnes included, it's phenomenal to watch it work and also to watch Barnes really fit in. Like there are a lot of ways this season could have gone for the team for Barnes's own choices like the way that he chose to play. He is really really leaning into success uh you know play styles like transition. You said he was 18th percentile. A lot of that was the shots he chose to attempt in transition. He's just not taking those shots. He is uh not taking as many fadeaways along the baseline from 12 ft. Those are going to the rim.
A quick number for you. He went from 83rd percentile in dribble jumpers last year. That's incredibly high. Like Paul George exists somewhere there in his prime. Yeah. uh or the back end of his prime. He's like in the 50th percentile or so now. Just a huge chunk of it is been excised from his game.
Yeah. And he should be taking some It's not like you want that to be like 12th. No, you want there to be meat there, but it can't be the whole the whole meal. And he's just he's done phenomenally at finding where his success is in just eating at that buffet. It's been um remarkable from a leadership perspective, from you know an awareness perspective, from just everything. The season to this point has reflected remarkably well on Scotty Barnes.
For you know video viewers, audio viewers, we won't like do a playbyplay, so don't feel too bad, but we'll put some Scotty uh defensive highlights on screen. the first one and I'll just describe for audio listeners. It's coming around a screen and he is just playing goalie in the lane full stop. He is the one pass away defender as well for Evan Mobley above the break. Not only is he able to step into the lane completely to neuter the drive at it at its birth, its inception, this drive has nowhere to go, he also recovers out to block the three-point shot. Now the play goes on. when he catches an outlet pass and scores too. His ground coverage ability to absorb bumps from Joel Embiid and block him at the rim. This isn't, you know, 60point triple double Joel Embiid type thing, but Scotty fronting Giannis, getting steals, recovering back, pinning guys at the rim. He's he blocks Giannis. He blocks Embiid. He stays on stars. He helps out when he's on lesser players. his court coverage as a guy who gets steals, as a guy who presses the three-point line, who helps defend and keep the Raptors from giving up gobs and gobs of points at the rim. His hands in passing lanes, he has been I think he's 14th in defensive win shares right now. He's uh I think sixth in defensive box score plus minus. I don't know if those are inverted, those rankings. He's got like 3.3 stocks per game, 1.8 8 blocks, 1.5 steals. He's one of the highest volume rim defenders in the NBA, which he shouldn't be because he's 6'9 and yet he is because he's so willing to, you know, throw himself at the rim and try and get stops there. The numbers aren't that good as far as him getting stops on the hole. But a lot of times he's been doing it without a very functional Yaka Purle or as the lone quote unquote big on the roster or on the court. He has been doing his damn thing, man. I that's probably my favorite aspect of watching him this year. Like yes, it's cool to watch him fit in on offense, but defensively I I've never felt more certain as far as like since I've been covering the Raptors and Kawawaii and OG that I'm watching an allNBA alldefense defender. He's just without anything attached to it. No no caveats. He's just been that good.
Yeah. the the you know the ability to uh stunt and recover without giving up a step on that drive. That's OG Anobi, right? And that's that's he has reached that level. Maybe not quite that level, but 90% of it um to and you you can really defend a lot of an offense with that ability. It's funny, it's the same biomechanics that allowed him to succeed as a rookie. When you think of where he was getting his buckets as a rookie, it was a lot of hook shots. A lot of just my my uh my hips are always square to the rim. No matter where I am, I can square up to the rim. And he does that as a defender. He's low. You know, part of the same reason he probably has a lot of trouble beating people with the dribble. It's the same reason he's good at succeeding protecting the rim. He doesn't get bumped back. And when he unfurls, he's squared to the square to the ball. His arms are long. He's not moving backwards. That's recipe for success, right? That's the ability to block shots. It's really, really impressive when you combine that with just the way he's reading offensive plays, where he is, and also where his teammates are. Like that pin on Kelly Ubé. Um the clip you're showing actually was only, I think, about a third of that possession. and he multiple times had sort of crept back into the lane because one of his teammates had actually abandoned um their guy and was rotating with no one there and Barnes was trying to recover but saw there was an opening had to creep back go out the pass went and then he recovered back to the rim to block it. He is just he is reading what's going on for all nine guys. It's really really remarkable because you can't just succeed with physicality. It's it always has to be the brain and he is thinking basketball at such a high level right now. This was the piece I wrote with, you know, or co-wrote with the Korean sports doctor Polar uh in Scotty's rookie season where a lot of it was based around and Polar works with uh sports teams. Uh, and he he talked about Scotty's biomechanics and said, "I don't ever expect him to be good at navigating screens or small spaces, but I expect him to be dominant in a wide stance dominate and, you know, dominating big spaces." And yeah, it's tough for him to navigate screens cuz you can't get little and you can't get tight and your feet can't get close together. Uh, OG Anobi doesn't navigate screens like that either. He uses big steps and takes dramatic angles and uses his arms to stay in. A lot of that is uh technique for OG and then letting his bullish strength keep him in the play. And Scotty has really for a guy who liked to try and win in the small spaces and was overmatched by smaller players who of course would beat him in those in those like you know like be a ballerina around a screen. It's just not his thing. He tried early on his career, but at some point he started being a guy who's like, I'm gonna dominate big spaces and the outcome for that has been just like he can be 8 feet away and close distance and he's a really quick jumper and everything underscoring this. I hate to like sum it up with this, but he's incredibly strong. He is incredibly strong. It is rather uncanny the way that he's able to hang in. He shouldn't be able to hang in with Giannis or Embiid. Uh not it's not like he's winning that physically, but hanging in he shouldn't even be there really. And yet he is. Uh you see it. It underscores everything he does. It's part of why he was so successful early on as a rookie. He meets the moment physically in a way that few players do. and I just I've had a ball watching him. It's that physicality. Physicality and intensity in sport is
One of the rare things. Uh, and in basketball, that needs a lot of skill. Seeing it married to skill, uh, it becomes like a special, special thing in my opinion.
Yeah, I love, I love that he gets up for big matchups. Then he treats Evan Mobley as like a, "This is one I'm coming for." I, I really, uh, look forward to those games when he, when he's like, "This is getting everything." Not a lot of guys do that in the regular season. Um, it's fun when he does. You know, he had, he had one against LeBron James very early in his career. Uh, he had a huge game against Durant at some point. I think he just, those are fun games when he really rises to a, to a perceived star. Was that one of your favorite performances from Scotty last night that you've seen?
Absolutely.
Is there anything else that comes to mind for you? I know you just named a couple. So, while you think of another, I'm going to say there was a game in his rookie season or his second season where he played a lot of drop defense versus the Knicks. And I really, it was the first time I think I saw his the greater potential to kind of maraud around the rim and break things up and compete on the defensive glass. That was a pretty big Knicks team at the time. It still had Julius Randle, who is, Julius Randle's good. He's great, even. He's a bully. And Scotty was very young to be hanging in against him. And the Raptors, I think they, uh, they allowed like 87 or 90 points in that game. And Scotty, as the little man, was, uh, incredible. This game against the Cavs, though, we talked about it earlier. It, it really was everything to me. It was, he problem-solved against the zone with mid-range shot-making. He pushed hard in transition. He got out in transition. His defense was everywhere. I just, I hardly have the words, man. Although I've said many.
You know, it's, it's a lot of his games have come in losses. A lot of his, like, biggest games. Uh, I think last, not last night, last night. Yeah. I think that Thursday night game against the Cavs, um, probably is right there for me for, for my favorite because it came in a win and it came in a way where he wasn't dominating the ball. He was, he was doing what the team needed of him. He was fitting in around the edges and just putting like 100 mph heat into that role. It was really impressive.
What's your expectation for this game against the Pacers? It's a, it's a Pacers team that blew up upon arrival. They played an incredible game against the defending champions. They, they knew they'd be up against it as a team this year without Tyrese. And they've, I think, had a mid-game injury seven out of the 12 games they've played this year. I mean, it's, it's been brutal. And they've had a couple guys come back, but I, how do you feel about the Raptors against the Pacers? Team they play well, have always played better during this era.
Yeah. I mean, they have Siakam healthy, they have Nwora, they have Nemhart. Smith just got injured, uh, last night.
Yeah. I mean, without Haliburton, I just don't really see the Pacers as that threatening to the way these Raptors play. I mean, they're going to, they're a fun team. The Raptors aren't, I mean, this year they're the type of team that blows the doors off bad teams. I guess we'll see. But, uh, I just, the Pacers probably aren't, probably don't have it this year.
Yeah. Well, also, I was thinking about it because Pascal, or sorry, Scotty always gets up for the Pascal matchup.
Always. And that is a matchup that really, it, it favors Scotty because Pascal is a guy who, a lot of what he does is outfoxing bigger guys and outmuscling smaller guys. And Scotty Barnes is one of those guys in the league who is like, "I'm going to take it to him on both ends." And, you know, Pascal might get him a couple times in isolation. He's one of the best isolation players in the league, but that does not make a team offense. I want to see, I still cover the Pacers with Caitlin. I mean, but I, I do want to see the Raptors trounce them. That would be fun.
I remember, um, in Scotty's first year, I, I think Pascal was injured for the first month or so and.
There's an indefensible Pascal Siakam minute basketball episode we did.
That's right. And, uh, it took him a while to get into the swing of things. And his first couple games, he was sort of, you know, he was just floating a little, finding his legs. And I remember his first big game, I was writing, I asked, uh, I forget what the question was, but I asked Pascal something after that game. He was like, "I don't know, maybe they forgot who I was," like, 'cause his teammates were sort of looking him off a little bit first, and he, it was like finally he could remind everyone. But I remember asking Scotty as well, um, about Pascal and, and Scotty gave this great quote. He's like, "Yeah, he's one of my favorite players." And this was when people were like, you know, do they fit together because Scotty came in with such success playing the position that Pascal had played and was injured and sort of not playing. And, uh, I think a lot of the conversation around that duo, um, wasn't, didn't have much of a bearing. In fact, I think they, they fit very well together. Um, they complimented each other and I think they liked each other, you know, uh, uh, as well. And it's really fun watching them play against each other. Uh, it's, yeah, it'll be good. I hope they, I hope they, you know, go 100 at each other for the rest of their careers.
Yeah, that'll be fun. I mean, Scotty got the, like the chain is the term, right? Took the chain in year three.
Pascal handed it off, uh, I think happily. And year four was not Scotty's. It was like so much stuff happening with the Raptors and obviously the Pacers go to the finals. Year five, Scotty, probably in my opinion, Pascal forever in the rearview if, if I had to guess from this point on. And maybe this game against the Pacers will be a firm and authoritative like on that conversation.
Um.
Wow, you don't think next year Haliburton comes back, Pacers go to the the finals again? You don't think people are seeing Pascal as like a top 20 guy?
But I would, a top 20 guy would be kind of tough. He's also getting older and they're having him play 30% usage basketball this year.
Yeah.
You know what I mean? Uh, and I, a lot of what Pascal does is being like extremely timely on the Pacers. And whereas Scotty is stepping into this like much more than timely role, right? I mean, Pascal's role last year on the Pacers was, as far as like exerting himself, far easier than what Scotty was doing. The numbers were obviously far better, but I think probably from this point on, uh, S things will tip towards Scotty both in, uh, efficiency, exertion, and overall impact. Uh, that, that would be my expectation. I love Pascal, one of my favorite players ever. I love covering him. It was nice to catch up with him at the finals and have that. But, uh, Scotty is coming into prime. Pascal, I think, has to work really hard to stay in it. It's, it's hard, man. Like, it's the, it's what is the, the meme? It's like, oh yeah, he's 32. He's damn near dead. It's the end of his life. He's an NBA player. Whereas, you know, I just turned 30, I feel younger than ever.
Forever young.
Um, I have not watched Bo Burnham's Turning 30 and it hasn't affected me. So, like, I remember you telling me that it did for you during the pandemic.
Bo Burnham was very impactful during the pandemic. Man, that was a, that was an emotional time.
Yeah. Anything else about these Raptors before we get out of here?
Uh, you said the numbers, so I've been meaning to ask you this since you said it. Uh, the numbers you said had them at a 54-win team now. Uh, have you adjusted what you expect from them? I know you said to Trey, you like the dream, right? Win, win a couple playoff series. I don't mean the dream, I mean expectations. I think we were at a similar place before the season, low 40s, mid-40s. Have you, has that changed for you?
Not yet. And already, like, already went out on a limb, you know what I mean? Like, not the craziest limb, but consent the Raptors eventually. Vegas and like the consensus got to just below 40, but it started out at like 31 or 32 for these Raptors. And at that time, I was like, "Oh, it's low to mid-40s." I get to have 10 more games, I think, before I decide to make that next leap. And as far as like wins, uh, the next 10 games will decide a lot because they play a lot of mediocre teams. And if you want to win a lot of games in the NBA, you win against the mediocre teams. If you want to win 38, 37, it means you lose maybe half, maybe a little bit less to the mediocre teams. So this next run, wherein I'm hoping for that seven and three stretch over the next 10 games, this is what proves it to me. This Cavs game meant something. The six in one response to the one and four, that means something. But this next 10 games, if they, whatever their, uh, record is at the end of this, I will be happy to try and predict something. How about you? I worry that everyone is playing to capacity right now. You mentioned everyone's efficiency. They're, they're like, they're all on a heater. It could be that guys improved across the board. The offense is getting guys in better situations and they're all, you know, unlocked in these new roles within, very, very possible. But, you know, there's a little worry that, and I wrote this after the Nets win, they won. It was, it was a professional win, but it was very reliant on shot-making. They just, they were not able to create layups outside of a couple Barnes passes. Um, and I worry that the offense right now is reliant on just over-the-top offense shot-making. And if that doesn't stick where it is now, even if it moves a tiny bit down, what the ripple effects will be and where the offense will land, I'm doubtful that it stays in sixth, right? I'm doubtful that it sticks around here. Um, that being said, if it sticks around here, we are looking at a miraculous season. Just the joy that we will have covering this team, talking to each other, writing about these games, 'cause it's rare. How often do teams come into the year predicted to be in the low 30s and then just knock everyone out they face? You're look like the Sacramento Kings, the beam team, right? They had that.
How many teams get a chance to do that? The, the Raptors after the championship year, right? Everyone wrote them off. They knocked everyone out that year.
Pistons. Pistons last year were better than people thought.
Yep.
Just to give you numbers for that. So, the Raptors, their volume and efficiency at the rim has been dwindling game over game for some time. Non-rim paint, they're fifth in points per shot. Layups, eighth in points per shot. Hook shots, turnarounds, 12th in points per shot. Non-paint twos, eighth in points per shot. Um, two-point jumpers, first in points per shot at over a point per possession. Thank you, Brandon Ingram.
Three-point pull-up, third in points per shot, you know, uh, but only they're one of the lowest volume in the league. The thing with this and it happened at the start of the 2023-24 season with Dennis Schröder and with Scotty and all these guys was that teams were giving them open looks. So the Raptors are not a team that commands a ton of, I think, three-point gravity from a bunch of places right now, but they are NBA players and if they're given open looks, they are hitting them. The Raptors have had a lot of open threes this year. I don't think teams changing the calculus on how they guard those is going to be bad for the Raptors and I don't think that they'll be so bad that like they start performing really poorly on open threes. I do understand your qualm about it though, because shot-making can, it can escape you at times for sure.
But it's also why personally I love when it's not choosing between Grady or Jalen.
I love when it's both because those guys, Jalen is a better defender, but Grady has not been killed yet on that end. So the benefits of to putting more shooting on the floor have been immense. Uh, Sandro also isn't going to shoot this well from three probably, but, uh, hey, maybe he does. But it's, it's, it's fair enough to worry about it. The Raptors, they probably need a little bit more rim pressure. Maybe Yakob plays himself into a little bit. The back starts feeling better. I'm not sure. But, uh, this next 10 games, I won't put the cart before the horse. Uh, they've, the six in one response is a big deal, but I won't put the cart before the horse. I don't see 50 wins immediately right now. I don't think like, oh, hell yeah, we're going to dance on graves or anything, but, um, out of the grave, not dancing on it. I'm happy. I'm happy with that. How about you?
I like that. I like that wordplay right there. That's pretty clean.
Thanks. I, I learned from from the best, Louis Sman. I was there, I was reading about a revolutionary Mexico, uh, when I was stumbling upon simply a game recap of the Raptors. Suddenly I was learning about all these things. Little do the readers know you were explaining this to me like four months ago. I swear you were asking.
Yeah. I, uh, I listened to this, uh, podcast series from Mike Duncan called Revolutions and he, uh, because I, my master's thesis was about the Paris Commune. So that was one of the things he covered. Um, and, uh, so I listened to the Mexican Revolution one and, uh, when it's, what you're listening to, when it's sort of what's going in your brain, it's sort of what you relate.
Ideas to. So, yeah.
That's why scenes are so important, you know, uh, like a scene of writers, a scene of creatives, a scene, uh, you know, nothing, very few people do it in in singularity. It's, uh.
Everyone, like even you and I, right, when we talk about basketball, I think we come out richer on the other end. Every time I talk basketball with someone smart, I think I come out better on the other end. And, uh, that's, it's good for, when that's why your writing is so much better is because you're steeping yourself in other things and those themes influence your writing and it enriches people in a way that certainly my writing about games doesn't. Like, oh, I get a little extra context on what play they're running.
Boom. Mexican Revolution. How do you feel?
Um.
That's why we go watch games at the bar, you know, scenes. Enjoy the, uh, even was it Thoreau who wrote Walden?
Thoreau, right? Walden guy,
I think. So, yeah.
My money don't jiggle, jiggle, it folds.
Uh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Thoreau. Uh, even he wasn't alone in Walden. His mom lived next door. She was like making him sandwiches while he was writing that. This is good. I love, I love this graphic. I also liked how when you were showing the the videos, your little bald guy up there was like pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe pe peeking over the videos. You see that?
Hell yeah, dude. He's, he's wants to get in on it, too. I should have put glasses on him, but we're still, I, I made this graphic about like eight minutes before we went live. So there, uh, we should have a professional graphic person do it instead of my, uh, very poultry, poultry attempts on Canva. But anyway, uh, listeners, thank you very much for tuning in. I hope you enjoy the Pacers game tonight. And if you're listening after the Pacers game, I appreciate you because, uh, the life cycle of a pod, a sports podcast is very short and I appreciate if you listen afterwards because some of this stuff should have a life cycle longer than just one game away. Uh, thank you for tuning in. Make sure to like, comment, subscribe, hype. We reached 15,000 subscribers. Uh, we're lots of listeners this year. We're very happy about it. More from myself, Louis, Trey, S, Sulfie, Kyle, Cody, everybody. Uh, and everyone writing over on the website. Camden has done a fantastic job recently as well, too. Really liking it. Uh, stay tuned with Raptors Republic. Thank you very much. Whether you got into this in the morning or at night.