Transcription
Hey everybody, Kimosabi here, giving you another update. Uh, just gave them yesterday, but there's plenty of content that I probably could make with regards to patterns and stuff. Uh, probably more than necessary.
But something very interesting that I've noticed is the comparison of the 2022 bare market and our current move down, comparing the daily chart versus the current 4-hour chart, uh, down below. Uh, and this idea, kind of, I kind of saw it happening in real time, but didn't think much of it. Uh, but I read somewhere where somebody was saying that their feed was full of um FUD or panic, um, similar to the FTX collapse. And that kind of brought back this idea where, yeah, maybe that's meant to be. Maybe that's the whole point of this.
But I can see the patterns kind of repeating here, and maybe that's the intention. Um, the intention of this bare market was for somebody to be accumulating, and this entered a definite accumulation range before breaking out to the upside. So, we could be doing something very similar now. Maybe somebody is accumulating here on the way down, and a markup phase may resume. So, just noticing the pattern here where you have the move down, move up, then down, little move up, and then down.
But what I found very interesting, and kind of what I noticed when I saw this pattern recently, it made me think of this pattern. The way that this price action moved up, down, and up. This looked very similar, and that's what it made me think of. And then I looked back on it and said, "Huh, I wonder if price will continue in the same manner," and didn't think much of it. But here we go. Down, sideways, down, down, sideways, and down. And since then, we've had similar pop-ups, similar to this pop-up, move down, move down.
Now, what if we're just going to chop here for, yeah, the next week or two for capitulating down? If this does a similar pattern, that puts you like at the end, middle, end of December, if the patterns do indeed um repeat in the same manner, it's just a fractal pattern. And you know, fractal patterns will work well until they don't. And once they don't, it, you know, it just goes, which you could have something going on right here where this just breaks out to the upside and you finally get a breakout, and it's just meant to look really bearish.
But needless to say, you can possibly look for similar characteristics of how this played out and how this current move may play out, where the price action, as it was coming down in 2022, you had a decent move down, sideways, and it started to gather strength, and then it started hovering, and didn't really have acceleration down until right here. But even then, this move is smaller than that move, smaller than that move, smaller than that move. So that kind of gives you a perspective to say the trend isn't as strong, uh, on the way down when it's moving down like that.
So, if you do see the trend weakening to the downside, where the legs are not quite as pronounced as those, and it holds just like this, you have a potential for a bottom. But the key ingredient here is higher high, higher low before markup and current price action. This is your high to beat right there. Beat that high. So, what if price just chops here and makes a lower high again, and then this becomes your high to beat? Get a higher high by the higher low and hit your markup phase, and then this ends up being a distribution into a reaccumulation into markup phase again.
Now, I'm not here to say whether or not it's bull market or bare market. I'm not here to say that I'm bullish or bearish. I look for the setups. It doesn't bother me if price wants to be bullish or bearish. If it wants to be bullish, I'll try to buy it. If it wants to be bearish, I will try to sell it. But I certainly won't go long. Once the trend is established to the downside, this definitely has to show me something different. And right now, this was your lower high. Still have a lower high, and now maybe you put in a higher low here and go for a higher high.
Currently, you did on a 4-hour chart here, you do have a higher high finally, right here. Higher high. You can try to buy the higher low at previous supports, see if that holds, or see if you find another buy setup down lower. Currently, you've taken all of this liquidity down. There is just a little bit left over here. So, price may end up stabbing the low but still closing a higher low. That's something that I would watch for. But for now, you do have a higher high. Try to buy the higher low and look to push up to liquidity and or previous support that may turn resistance.
If that pattern from 2022 is to play out, this would be your rejection point, and price would then come take the low, bounce up, and go sideways before ultimately going lower. But how much lower? He says, let's look on the daily chart here for this. I will probably have to put it on linear scale to show the similarities here, how far that price went down. So, we will just measure the leg down in 2022 is of a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool. Measure that leg and project from the current all-time high. One, one Fibonacci extension gets you down to 73. I think if you were to do the math on it, and if you were to calculate exactly the exact dollar amount that this went down, because I'm not getting super precise here with my Fibonacci extensions, uh, the move down here would probably equal 70,000, close to 70,000, 71,000 or something like that.
But isn't that interesting how the price action on the 4-hour is kind of giving you a similar dollar amount to the downside as, you know, 2022, the entirety of that downtrend for one year? We're achieving similar results in 3 months, two and a half months, something like that. So, going a little faster, and you may ultimately grab liquidity. If that price action does repeat here and eventually breaks down, you're the market is targeting this liquidity down here at 75, 74, 74K, that low. It's ultimately wanting to target that. Whether or not it makes it there, that's up for debate. Um, but you need a change in behavior here to say that it's not.
Couple of weeks back, I made the argument that this was your range. And you may have equal and opposite reactions of how far price went above the range. It may do the same thing below the range because ultimately the market wants stop-losses. It wants liquidity. If it wants to take the market up, it has to get you to sell or get the majority of people to sell so that the market maker has the asset that he wants to mark up. But at the same token, if he wants to mark it down, he wants to make sure that you own it and that you buy the dip aggressively. Um, which is why a video that I made two weeks ago is, don't, don't call bottoms until it actually bottoms because that's exactly what happened in 2022. I remember people aggressively calling every bottom a bottom a bottom till price made it down. Actually, I think it was around here for 6 months, there was a debate whether or not price was going to 10K or bottomed out already.
So, once you have the FTX collapse, I remember many influencers were selling. They're like, "Well, I can get it 50% cheaper, and I think that's a good move." And then it ended up not being a good move, and they didn't know how to get back in and remain bearish as price was moving up, especially after the higher high, higher low that went on there. But hopefully, they learn their lesson or, you know, learn from the mistake that was made there. And that's all we can do as traders, um, traders and investors, is take the mistakes, learn from them as, as, as you grow.
And what I've learned is, don't fight against the trend. Just similar to up here, once you close a lower low, be on guard for a lower high. And in Slice, I did say that this looks like it should be a sell setup right there. I wanted it a little bit higher, but ended up just going, and then had another sell setup there. I didn't like it. So, I didn't even take that. And there we are coming down to beyond the target that I was expecting, which is why I wasn't too keen on shorting. I was like, it's got another leg down to previous support. Well, it bounced a little bit there and fell through it. So, the sell setups ended up playing out a lot better than I expected. And you just, you live and learn. Uh, but you don't lose money on a trade you don't take. So, I'm kind of cautious when price is in a downtrend, and I'm looking for, you know, higher high somewhere, finding a higher low, uh, for the opportunity.
Where does that higher low come? If it comes, well, it should come around here, but yeah, maybe it targets that, uh, lower liquidity. Maybe this thing goes down and targets much lower liquidity, and that's where you look for the opportunity. Um, wherever this price does bottom out at, it'll make a higher high. I'll buy the higher low. Or if it makes a higher high that's substantially higher, you may just have to keep buying the higher lows that are up much higher, and you look on lower time frames to find those.
I will tell you, just looking at this chart, if you are expecting the low to be in, this would be your low at 80,000 because if you break below that, the market is targeting the next liquidity, $5,000 deeper. Um, how much deeper does it go beyond that? Who knows? You could have some crazy capitulation happen thereafter because I knew, I do know that many have that as their bull market/bear validation. Uh, bull market invalidation comes at that low. So, what better way to get liquidity than to push beyond that, get yourself a lower low, and then have a lower high and chop here for the next year, just to get everybody to sell where everybody's looking for way lower prices, and we just stay stuck in this range. Ultimately, you probably make a head and shoulders pattern, get everybody really bearish off of that, and that pattern then fails and reverses, or it plays out and you come down for this lower liquidity. All, all are viable options. It's just where's the opportunity?
But price coming down here, if you break below that low, you're likely targeting the next low. If this makes a higher high, try to buy the higher low and see if you could push up into these upper liquidities. Um, given what I explained yesterday in the video, I don't think you've bottomed yet, but who am I to say? If this thing wants to bottom, start an uptrend from here, have at it. I will follow along with it. But I don't have any daily divergences that we've noticed previously. Um, I'm sure we have plenty of liquidity that came down here. Um, sentiment is sour as all get out. So, yeah, those are recipes for a bottom, and maybe you just stab a few times down and get myself super bearish and not expecting any move up, and it just rips to the upside, and maybe I miss the trade, and maybe knife catchers and people without a process who are basically gambling make more money than me on this little move up. I'm okay with that, and I have to be okay with that. Um, but I follow my process, and it keeps me in the game long term. That's what I'm looking for. I'm not looking to be in and out. I'm not looking to risk what I've earned over the past 10 years. Um, kind of like where I'm at. So, there's a lot to be said for maintaining your wealth and not just, um, you know, catching falling knives or shorting all-time highs to have a move down. That's, in my view, that's gambling.
Like if price is pushing all-time highs, that's still a higher high. I'm not bearish there. I don't care if there's divergences, multiple drives. I'm not bearish. You don't get bearish until lower low, lower high, lower low. You've got a downtrend. Then shorts are valid until they're not. So, what I would like to see here is either a pattern completing of some sort, or a move up that doesn't match any of these moves down, that is larger than previous moves up. So, you have to invalidate this move matching this by getting up to 100,000. You get up to 100,000, then you have an argument for doing something different, and we'll look for the trade setup in that way.
So, kind of turned into a rant here today. Um, I don't know. Just thought I'd share interesting things that I saw from the bare market of 2022 and the similarities that I'm seeing with this leg down. Um, the rest of it's just gravy on top if anybody's still listening. Um, yeah, so I'll try to make more content. Um, I really want to make an XRP video because that one is very interesting. I've already updated the Slice members on it. Um, maybe I'll check over the video that I released on Slice, that was like two weeks ago or last week, uh, and maybe share it on YouTube because I found that one to be very interesting.
So, till next time, keep them stops tight and have a good night.