Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about BTC first, which is experiencing a good drop today - 6%. We are currently retesting the previous lows. We will also talk about Ether here. We will look at some altcoins that have been requested for analysis. We will also talk about the US market. So, we have quite a few cryptos that are currently decreasing. So we will do a big review here. Before I start, I remind you of the Black Friday offer. âŹ200 off the Crypto Investor program, and given the market context, many people are panicking, not knowing what to do. Is this the beginning of a bear market? What should be done? In any case, you need to prepare yourself. You need to know what to do, which crypto you should own, what portfolio you should have adapted to your profile. And all of that, I teach you in the Crypto Investor program, at the end, you will be 100% autonomous. You will know what to do in a bull cycle, what to do in a bear cycle, how to enter, when to enter, okay? When to exit, when you should take your profits, what to do with your profits? It's truly a step-by-step guide so that you are 100% autonomous in your crypto investments. And there you go, you have 12 modules here, over 30 hours of video, also support from me, access to the private investors' circle. You have plenty of resources, help, tools, Excel files, also updates because I continue to add courses, and most importantly, personalized follow-up via private message. So if you want to do better, if you want to avoid panicking, to know what to do, perhaps you are currently lost, you are in a mess, well, this is a program that will clearly allow you to be more performant, to know what to do, and simply to have a plan, a strategy. I teach you all of that inside the Crypto Investor program. You have âŹ200 off by clicking on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with BTC. We had our weekly close. So, we saw this together, that it was just a simple rebound, and we saw it in recent days that we were in this zone. Well, classic, Thanksgiving here, low volatility, holiday, it's a small Sunday and Monday, big market dump. As we saw it in this zone, I told you it wasn't a good zone to enter a position. There was the rebound. Okay, very good. But when we look at the moving averages, when we look at the long-term trend, well, we are bearish. 4-hour chart is bearish, the trend tunnel is bearish, and well, I was the first to tell you that we couldn't go "to the moon" again. This low will be tested again. And here, we are in a good zone. Why not to look for longs? But you must be aware that if you are looking for a long here, you are against the trend. The long-term trend prevails, and for me, the long-term trend is bearish. Some people will say, "No, we are still in a bull market." No, for me, BTC is no longer in a bull market. Are we in a bear market? As I say, when we were here, was anyone talking about a bear market? No. Here, was anyone talking about it? No. Here it started, and yes, then it talked about a bear market. If we do something like this, here it doesn't talk about a bear market, here not too much yet. Here it will start to bring up the subject, and then we could say we are in a bear market. Except that if you wait for people to talk about a bear market to exit, well, generally it's too late. I told you here, I told you we lose this level, and especially double confirmation, we also lose the $90,000. For me, it's ugly for what's next. And already, I had warned that the end of 2025 would be complicated. Proof, there you go, from the return here, the markets have been very complicated. 2026 will be the same, given the economic announcements, given the context. 2026 will also be a complicated year. You must prepare yourself, you must train yourself, you must have a plan, you must have knowledge, skills. If you don't have that, I'm telling you, it's useless to watch my videos daily. It has no utility. Just do DCA on BTC. Don't stress, you don't have skills, no knowledge, you lose money on cryptos. Either you say, "Okay, there are two choices anyway. Either you say, 'Okay, you give yourself a good kick in the ass,' okay? Because I'm going to be blunt, it might be hard to hear if you're losing money, if you're wrong in your positions, etc., it's your fault. It's not because of the market, it's not because of smart money, it's not because of, I don't know, the exchange, the broker, it's not because of the market makers as I hear here and there. No, it's your fault. Okay? I prefer to be direct, I'm not here to lie to you, to flatter you, it's of no interest. Either you give yourself a good kick in the ass, hop, you take concrete actions, you train yourself, you put in place a concrete action plan, you simply inform yourself, you learn like all the people who generate income from cryptos have done, and over time, I'm not saying in a week, but in several months, okay, you will have the ability to make good decisions. Or you don't want to do all of that, and in that case, you do DCA, dollar-cost averaging. You invest a fixed sum of money over a timeframe that you will define, once a week, once a month, and you only do that on BTC, and you will perform better than if you do nothing at all. That's the only option. Now, if you watch my videos daily, I think you will rather look for this option because, well, we talk about trading, we talk about investing, we research altcoins, okay? But in any case, for now, I'm in the same mindset, okay, where I tell myself the market isn't interesting. As for altcoins, I'm not touching them. There you go, I've been telling you for a while, I'm not going to touch altcoins with completely disgusting charts, you know. We can see here, hop, it's ugly. Sui, it's ugly. In, I'm not even talking about it. There are no altcoins holding up. Arbitrum, it's ugly, Se, it's ugly. There you go, there are many altcoins like that that don't hold up. So, I have no interest. BTC, as I told you, it's the first crypto, generally, I will start to reposition myself because generally, it's the one that puts in a bottom before the altcoins. It's the one that will fall the least. And here, if you want to preserve your cash, if you want to avoid suffering a drop that most people will suffer, it's either to have stablecoins, so USD, USDT, USDC, in short, cash that is ready to be invested, or to have BTC, okay, but in any case, I will not position myself on altcoins, and having BTC doesn't mean you won't suffer any drops, but it's about repositioning yourself at interesting levels. As I said, I put in another cartridge when we were in this zone, about ten days ago, about seven days ago, I don't have the exact date anymore. Okay. And then, my cartridges are here. And here I have pending orders as I told you in this zone and here in this zone because I estimate that if BTC comes back to these levels, it's very interesting for the long term.
So, I can redo it for those who weren't there. Why are these interesting zones? There are several reasons. First, from a price action perspective. Okay, there you go, we see it clearly, these are two major support levels. If I draw a Fibonacci below, we have our 0.718, 0.8, 0.786 where historically BTC puts in a top, a bottom, sorry, within this zone. There you go, that's the first point. And above all, we have here the production cost of BTC, which is simply a level, a level which is the cost price for miners. I remind you, to mine BTC, to secure the network, it's a cost, a cost which will simply be electricity paid according to countries. There you go, I have a floor price that simply tells me that if we start to go below $40,000, almost all miners will sell at a loss. And historically, BTC has stayed very little below this level. It has happened before, like here, like here, but historically, it's very rare, and especially around April 2028, we have our next halving, and a halving on BTC doubles the production cost of BTC. So, there's a high chance that by April 2028, we will be above $80,000 because it will double. However, if in the meantime, it goes down, that's a possibility, but in any case, there's a high chance that we will simply have an evolution of this production cost. Now, it can vary, and it's not, don't fix yourself on exactly $41,000, okay? We can look at other on-chain metrics, etc., but in any case, it's a good intervention zone. So, this is why these are simply zones that interest me. And currently, well, I'm not positioning myself just anywhere. I told you, I'll quickly share my strategy. I won't go into detail, but the cash I want to deploy. Okay, BTC, Ether, highly liquid, I made you the list of cryptos that interested me. Okay, there are two ways. The first is pending orders on weekly, monthly intervention levels where I will deploy part of my cash, and the second is more when I have a confirmed bottom, when I have convictions, simply when I tell myself, "Okay, the market is potentially determining a long-term bottom, a W structure, etc., etc.," like what we did here in 2022, early 2023. That's how I'm positioning myself currently. So, I have quite a bit of cash set aside. People who don't have cash, I know there are many of you, you're listening to me now, you're almost broke. Well, I've always said it, it's hard to hear too, but often you're looking for a miracle solution that can't be found. You're searching, and you're using all your energy to find a miracle solution that can't be found. For me, the best solution is to look at the problems you've had, the mistakes you've made, find solutions so as not to end up in this situation again. Here, you can tell yourself, "Okay, I messed up, I put myself in this situation, there's no miracle solution." However, instead of looking for a miracle solution, wasting my time and never finding it, and thus putting myself back in the same situation because I haven't worked on the right things and putting myself back in the same thing in 2 or 3 years, no, here, okay, I accept it, I don't have my miracle solution. Maybe it will be mentally tough, okay, but I will put things in place so that in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, I don't experience this situation again. For me, that's the right behavior to adopt. Always easier said than done. But in any case, that's the direction I would look to go for someone who is simply broke.
Now, on BTC, if we start a bit more with technical analysis, I like these psychological parts like I'm doing now because it's the foundation and it's really important. Very few people will listen to this kind of part. We always prefer when I say, "Yes, BTC might do this, do that, etc." And technical analysis is good, but psychology, risk management, etc., what we saw just before, is very important. BTC is still in a bearish dynamic, that's a fact. We are in a good zone where if the buyers who marked a bottom here want to turn this pattern into a W, it's in this zone that they must do it. We saw it together, this zone of $85,860,000. So here, we need to see if there's simply a weakening, a buyer reaction. For now, nothing at all. We don't have any of that. Here, a small rebound to make a new low. Here, a new rebound to make a new low. For now, no bottom is in place. If we start to do this, okay, then we can say, "Very good, we break the previous highs, we have a pullback, we come back to perhaps a Fibonacci retracement zone, etc." Okay, then it can be interesting. For now, we don't have any bottom forming. We have moving averages pointing downwards. There you go. And similarly, remember this for those who are looking to trade, who are a bit lost in this kind of context because perhaps they have trouble shorting or I don't know, when we have big violent drops like we had here, you put moving averages, 3-minute tunnel, 15-minute tunnel. Pullbacks are opportunities for strong moves. 3-minute tunnel for intraday scalping, 15-minute tunnel more for intraday. Okay? And we see clearly that when we have a big drop, often the 3-minute tunnel is a very good intervention zone to simply continue the trend. So, personally, here I wait, I don't specifically take longs on perpetual contracts. For the long term. I told you I had entered, well, I had entered around $86,000, about a week ago. And here I'm waiting. My cash is ready, I'm doing nothing, and I'm just looking for setups for the short term. Okay? There's no need to force it. As I told you, if a bottom is to be made, it will take time to be made, given the structure we've created. We won't go up again immediately. It's possible, but it's very unlikely. And it's about probabilities, markets, cryptos are just probabilities. When I say the market will take time to put in a bottom, I have strong convictions about that. That doesn't mean it's 100% sure, but it's what is currently most probable. And given the structure, given what we are doing, for me, the most probable is to reach 75 between 72 and 75. That wouldn't surprise me. Now, don't ask me when. I'm not divine. My goal is not to predict. My goal is not to anticipate, it's to react to what I see.
So, we also have pivot points that are being created, as I told you yesterday, always watching monthly and weekly closes. So, three weekly pivot points for the week: 86,000, 89,500, and 93,850. And three monthly pivot points. Now, when I say three, I can put more. I can put extensions, support 2, resistance 2, and so on. Now, generally, I trade much more support 1, resistance. I sometimes put extensions, but that's why I have three overall, but the others are interesting. It's just that it's quite rare that we reach them. I use them a bit less. And the monthly pivot points, we have resistance 1 at 107,649. Main pivot point at 94,137, and we have support 1 at 76,842. Again, these are intervention levels that absolutely need to be monitored. If we reach them, they are good zones to either take longs, take shorts, or take profits depending on whether you are long or short. This is not enough to make an investment decision. Okay? We can use price action, we can use other things to make decisions, but in any case, it allows you to locate your entries. So, on that front, for BTC, I don't have much more to add. Regarding Ether, well, it's similar, anyway, I told you that I watch the BTC chart for the majority of altcoins, including Ethereum. It's still consolidating on this support level. Now, for me, the most probable, if we don't manage to put in a bottom, is to reach 2200. Now, here, we are potentially in a zone to put in a bottom. And to validate this bottom, we need to go above 3100. We go above 3100, W structure. Okay. Change in momentum. And then, we can hit a bullish rally. Not necessarily "to the moon," but at least come back here to reach 3300-3800. Then, perhaps put in a bigger structure, something like that, or I don't know. But in any case, as long as we are in this bearish trend here, the most interesting thing is to take shorts. If you want to take longs, why not? But you are against the trend. So, be careful about the risk you have. Be careful about the risk-reward, and try to have good entries, and assume that the rebounds will be less significant than the extensions of the trend, the impulses of the trend. So, if we have a bearish impulse like this, don't expect a rebound like this. Okay? Or we reverse our momentum, that's something else. But when you initiate a long, you don't anticipate the reversal of momentum. It's not possible. So, if there's a rebound, well, it's perhaps lower to have something like this. Okay, but we won't have something like this. However, if we put in a bottom, it's the opposite. The impulses will be more significant. Until when, I don't know. But in any case, on Ether, similarly, it's not incredible. And for me, if we reach 2002, then it becomes interesting again for the long term. It's already interesting, but I need a buyer reaction that I don't currently have.
So, similarly, we also have weekly pivot points and monthly ones to watch on Ether: 2955 approximately, 2800, 3130, and the monthly pivot points: 3730 and 2430. We're not talking about exact dollars. Well, I won't give you a lesson on that again. I've already explained it to you, we're never talking about exact dollars. The purpose of a pivot point is not even if sometimes we can have a wick exactly on it, it's intervention zones. You see, it's not because we close below that it's the end. No, that's not how it works. Okay? A support or resistance level, a pivot point, a moving average, etc., it's not because we have a slightly lower close that it's the end. We function with intervention levels, simply. So, that's it for BTC and Ether. Regarding the US market, for now, I'm switching to daily. Hop, we have a slightly bearish day, but the US market remains bullish. And it's quite surprising to see a US market recover so much over 5 days with a rise of over 5%, and have cryptos that do nothing and suffer a drop like we've experienced. BTC has gained more than 10%, +10%, but proportionally, compared to the S&P 500, it's nothing, and to experience such a significant drop. That's why it makes me think even more that fortunately we have a bullish S&P 500, because if we enter a bearish trend on the market with cryptos already falling sharply, I can't even imagine the extent of the drops we're going to experience on, well, BTC, Ether, and altcoins. So, I remain cautious. We don't have a top structure. We had marked a small one here that we are currently invalidating by re-entering. However, be careful here about the potential inverted head and shoulders, classic head and shoulders. If we start to go below 6500, yeah, then it's bye-bye. And then it's a big top pattern, and it's at least a return to around 6150. And then we would be on a much more significant drop. We would have cryptos that would correct even more, and that applies to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Regarding hyped altcoins, I'd say, well, that are falling. Hype, well, I still have a tiny bit left. I've especially taken a lot of profit in this whole zone. Okay, with good accumulation, average purchase price $13. We're coming back to the first zone that interests me to potentially position myself. Okay. We are clearly in a bearish trend, we see the change in momentum well with here lower lows and higher highs to have here lower lows and lower highs. There you go, the change in momentum is quite clear. Okay. Now, for me, Hype, everything that comes back into this zone is interesting. It's hard to have a precise level where the market will potentially react. But yes, we are in a good location zone here to try to position ourselves. In any case, I'm doing it because I have convictions in the project. It's very fundamental. But my positions on highly liquid assets, the longs I take are much more driven by a fundamental factor than a technical factor. Technically, yes, it remains encouraging in the sense that it's a chart that is falling less than BTC. Okay, now, we are structuring a distribution pattern that will surely lead us to lower levels. And now, it depends on your convictions. I don't want you to be like, "Ah, Nico said it was a good project, so I'm buying it." Because if you say that, if it really goes wrong, I don't know, it's not the most probable thing, but even if there's a 10% chance this event happens, that we break this low, there's still a probability. If we break it, you shouldn't be like, "Ah, well, he was wrong, but therefore I question the project, I don't trust it. Nope, I sell, it's garbage." I have convictions. So, I could more easily accept a loss, more easily accept a temporary drawdown, more easily buy even if the market, well, if the crypto continues to fall, and so on and so forth, because I have a plan, I have a strategy, I know what to do. If your plan, your strategy is based on my convictions on a crypto, you see, it's complicated. Okay? So, in any case, Hype will become interesting again for me to position myself for the long term. But as I say, I still have this part of pending orders and a part of bottom buying because, well, I don't want to be broke. And I will have cash in case we put in a bottom because we can very well go much lower than the pending orders I can set.
We have other altcoins bleeding heavily, notably Solana. For me, I'm not looking to position myself on Solana for the moment. I have less conviction in Solana than I used to. I don't want to tell you it's because the fundamentals have changed, it's just that the market has evolved, and I'm struggling to see Solana perform significantly. Perhaps I'm wrong, but the market has evolved. There have been new players, there have been new projects, the market is a bit different, and I'm struggling to see Solana perform exceptionally well. For me, Solana's biggest performance has already happened. I still have a little bit, but I don't want to position myself for the moment, unless we come back to very, very low levels. I often talked to you about these four cryptos that I was watching: BTC, ETH, Hype, I can't even write Hype anymore, and Sol. Okay, well, you understand me. Sol is currently not in my top list. I'm mainly focusing on these three cryptos because I think if we really enter a bear market, convictions on Sol will be much less important than on these three, and I don't want to put cash into a crypto where I don't have strong convictions. So, for now, I'm focusing on these three cryptos. No need to have 30 or 40. I know there are many of you. You have quite a few altcoins. The best thing, especially as we enter a bear market like this, I made a video, I invite you to watch it, which is this one. Here are the altcoins to buy. I strongly invite you to watch it. I think it can clearly help you and especially help your portfolio in the long term. Now, many altcoins will not recover. For me, STX will never go back to its $3.9. If you are positioned on a crypto like STX, it depends on where you are positioned, but if you are at -90%, don't expect to recover your investments. Sometimes, clearing out your altcoins can allow you to have a clearer mind. I'm not talking about returns here, I'm just talking about starting from a good basis. And if you made the mistake, for me it's a mistake, but it's up to each person to have 30 cryptos in their wallet because you listened to everyone and you said, "Yes, it's inevitable, one of them will do x10." You've realized perhaps that it wasn't the best solution, and well, refocus on a few cryptos where you have strong convictions adapted to your profile. And here, we are not in a scenario where you will have altcoins that do x20. We have the Bitcoin dominance that has increased slightly, but not that much. Not that much. For me, I think the top is in, and unless something happens, I find it hard to see BTC go back above 66% of Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin dominance is the share of BTC in the entire crypto ecosystem. Here, among all the market cap of cryptos, BTC represents 60%, which is quite, which is quite enormous. Now, will we have an altcoin season or not? Like we had here, for me, it's unlikely. Here, we have a phase where we had altcoins that pumped, but I don't think we will have big drops like that. We'll see. Well, in any case, be cautious with altcoins here. Remember what I told you at the beginning of the video about refocusing, asking yourself the right questions, and not repeating the mistakes you've made. This is not the end. On the contrary, this kind of drop allows for very good opportunities, and it's in crises, it's in crises that the best opportunities are created. Now, it's also in this kind of drop that we see those who were not trained, those who, attention, your famous unrealized gains, yes, I'm in profit, yes, I'm making money. Often, these are latent unrealized gains that over time turn into break-even and latent unrealized losses. So, I remind you, until it's sold, you have no gain, it's just latent unrealized gains. There you go. Now, I think the market will reward in this kind of phase, when it drops like this, the market rewards those who are ready, those who are trained, those who make the best decisions. Now, not all decisions are good. All my decisions are not necessarily good, but in any case, I tend to make the maximum number of good decisions. And even if out of ten decisions, I might have three good ones and seven bad ones, but if the three bring me a lot while the seven make me lose very slightly, well, in the end, it can work. Okay? And in trading, in investing, you can be wrong more often than right and still make money. I'll leave you with that. Feel free to tell me in the comments for future videos which altcoins you want me to analyze. If you have questions, ask them, I will answer them publicly. It's something I do from time to time. It can be about your wallets, about a crypto, about trading, investing, psychology, whatever. Ask me the question you want, I'll display it here in a video. If you don't want it to be broadcast, you can ask me in a private message. I won't broadcast your username, and I will answer it in a video, of course. If you want to train yourself, prepare for what's next, well, I invite you to join the Crypto Investor program here. I train you as if I were next to you, sitting next to you. Okay? And there you go, I simply invite you to join it. It will clearly, clearly allow you to progress and manage the future better. And in addition, with Black Friday, you have âŹ200 off by clicking on the first link in the description. I'll leave you with that. I wish you a very good evening, and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.