Transcription
Alright, hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, in market review, we will talk about BTC which is losing its $90,000 level. Then, we will talk about Ether which is losing the $3,000 level, and altcoins which are also correcting. So, we will analyze the altcoins that were requested for analysis. Don't hesitate right now, by the way, to put in the comments which ones you want me to analyze. Today, we will look at Lido, Solana, and Morpho, and we will follow up on a trade I took today. I will explain the entry conditions, a magnificent trade that is ongoing. So, we will follow up on all of that.
So, I'll start here with BTC, which is not far from retesting its low from yesterday. We had a slight bounce yesterday to reach $93,000. And now, we are almost retesting the little pump we had yesterday. We are still in this selling pressure, in this bearish trend. No sign of a bottom for now. We could have a first sign if we start to settle above this $93,000 level and validate this W structure. But for now, we remain in this bearish pressure with moving averages, a 15,000 tunnel that still acts as resistance. That's why I tell you, and I repeat it, and I repeat it again, in this kind of market condition, we work with moving averages. Yes, on the long term. I am looking for buys on the long term. Of course, I estimate that we are still high, but we will potentially come back to interesting levels. Okay? But in any case, on the short term, currently, I am in short mode, I short, I short, I short. I have setups that trigger, I enter. I don't ask myself questions. I have moving averages that allow me to materialize a trend. As soon as I have pullbacks, I short, and that allows me to have magnificent setups when we have strong selling pressure with, if I put my MACD here, a MACD that is pushing, which could potentially push for a bullish divergence, but nothing validated for the moment. Well, for the moment, we are still in a bearish flow and momentum. I did a course on the MACD not too long ago. Don't hesitate to go see it. Here, we see that we have selling pressure with, why not, a divergence that could be validated if we start to reject here and find positive momentum. But for the moment, we remain here in a momentum that is bearish. So yes, we are pushing for bullish divergence on the shorter term, but a bullish divergence does not indicate an inversion of our dynamics. It indicates a weakening of the sellers. But weak sellers will always be stronger than absent buyers. And for the moment, we have no buyers. So for the moment, I am waiting. For long-term spot, I am waiting. For the short term, I am working hard. And that's the importance of trading in this kind of condition: an investor either gets wiped out or waits. There is no in-between. They cannot perform here. There is nothing to do on BTC and Ether and altcoins. There are always some altcoins that can perform, but well, either an investor takes a big hit on their capital, or even if they are 100% in cash and exited at the highest point, they do nothing because no setup is triggering for the moment. That's where by trading, we can increase our bag, we can find trades that simply allow us to recover cash even in a market like this, which is in a bearish trend. So, as I said, we are in a zone, for me it wouldn't surprise me to consolidate, unless there is really strong selling pressure. I would be quite surprised, honestly, to go from $100,000 to $70,000 or $80,000 without a strong rebound. Yes, I would be quite surprised. It's quite rare for BTC to have a -30%. Not because we've already had very bearish news like COVID or FTX, but over several days, over several weeks, to have a -30% without a rebound. It's true that it's quite rare. If we really can't find a bottom here around 90, then why not go look for the bottom of this imbalance around $86,000. There we have a small intermediate support, which I prefer to the support we are at. For me, I would have more conviction to find a bottom at this level. But if it doesn't hold, then we go level by level. And then the next level will be around this zone, around $86,000, before the big zone, the big zone that I'm waiting for, where for long-term spot, I would clearly start to position myself. We are still far from it, in terms of percentage decrease, it's -20%. So, when we look at the chart like this, we might think it's close, but -20% is not usually done overnight on BTC. So, my mindset hasn't changed. My plan is still the same. I have cash ready to be deployed, lower down. Okay? The work we did, well, these past months allowed us to recover cash, to secure at least a minimum. I still have BTC, of course, because I have a profile that means I will never sell all my BTC. That's how it is, it's something I've put in place that I accept. But in this case, I'm not here looking at my portfolio, worrying about performance, as long as I accept it and have a very, very long-term vision. Now, I divide my capital into several parts. I will have a short-term trading part. So, generally intraday or swing, generally for my trades that I will take with or without leverage, it depends. But generally, my active trading. Okay? So, I will have generally a capital that will of course be able to generate cash and why not put it into my investment portfolio depending on what I want to do. It depends on the moments. Sometimes I will increase my trading capital. Sometimes the cash I made thanks to my trading, I put it into my investment portfolio. It will depend. I have an investment portfolio that is rather, let's say, active. Okay? That means my goal will be to play a cycle. That means I will try to position myself low, for example, on BTC at $20,000. Okay? To then seek to take profits at $70,000, $100,000, $120,000. So, this is a bit more active investment. Sometimes on altcoins, I can be a bit more aggressive. Okay? And instead of positioning myself for 1 year, 2 years like that, I will position myself for a few months. So, this is my active investment portfolio, and I will have a rather passive investment portfolio where my goal is just to accumulate BTC on the long term with a very, very long-term horizon. And then, sometimes my trading cash goes into my active investments, and my active investment cash goes into my passive investments. Sometimes I can do that, sometimes I can take a bit more cash from here. So, I don't have fixed rules on this, but generally I have three large capital pools like this: one in trading, one for rather active investment where I won't hesitate to exit if I have bad signals, and a rather very long-term investment where in this kind of case, I hold because I have rather long-term convictions.
Well, as I said here on BTC, we put moving averages, we put pivot points, okay? And we simply look at what we have. We are not far here from a weekly pivot point, not far from where we found a bottom. But for now, the best thing to do is pullbacks. They are shorted. We break the 15-minute tunnel. Okay? Well, the objective is to go for the 1-hour tunnel. As we set it up, you see, we had the 15,000 acting as resistance, we broke it, we went back to the 1-hour, we even broke it. Okay, we re-entered, and then the 1-hour acted as resistance again, and since we really lost $100,000, we've had a significant acceleration downwards, and all pullbacks in the 15-minute tunnel are currently being sold. So, for now, I remain in this dynamic where I short the rebounds. Now, I won't start taking shorts here because we are at our previous low, we have a good buying reaction. The goal is always to have a short with a good risk-reward. Here, I never position myself at a support level. Therefore, a trader will never go long at a support level, okay? Because you don't have a good reward, you are not in an area of interest, you are playing, you are not in the direction of probabilities, and it's the worst thing to short a support level like going long at a resistance level. Many went long at $93,000 when we are at a resistance level. Do the opposite of what the majority of people think, and you will clearly have better results. So, here, there are not 40,000 scenarios. It's either we rebound to go back to the 15-minute tunnel again, where we will have to see if there is a selling reaction again, as we had here, and take shorts to aim for trend continuation. Or we break and have an acceleration, and then we can monitor the blue tunnel here, which is the 3-minute tunnel, where generally when we have breaks, we are on very, very short term, between scalping and intraday. When we have breaks, it's very interesting to use this blue tunnel to continue the trend, and then when we lose it, generally we go for the 15 minutes. But this is only interesting if we really have a downward acceleration by breaking this low. For now, that's not the case. So, the goal is not specifically to anticipate it. We simply react to what we see.
So, on BTC, not much to say, unless I take the two profiles, investor profile, well, I will wait again because we are still high. The weekly chart is very, very ugly. We talked about it anyway, if we lost these levels, it wouldn't surprise me, and it still doesn't surprise me to have such a downward acceleration because we have an inversion of our dynamics. We have buyers who are underwater, buyers who are blocked. We have selling pressure from shorts pushing on perpetual contracts, and also longs closing their positions because we have reversal signals, because we have buyers who are blocked, who are underwater, because we are also liquidating people, simply. And we saw this on the order flow, we saw it here on the spot CVD, we had a big drop, big selling pressure, meaning simply longs closing their positions. And this was confirmed at the same time with an increase in open interest on futures, which further pushed this movement. So, we had futures that were bearish and spot that was bearish, which is really not good in general. So, we wait. Draw your levels. As I told you, the biggest work must be done now. That is to say, it's like I told you the same thing when we were in a bull market. Okay? I told you exactly the same thing. Think about drawing your profit-taking zones. Those who did it today are comfortable. They have their cash aside, they are calm. Now, I'm not saying that a part of their portfolio isn't suffering from this drop. They are not specifically 100% in cash, but some are calm, they have 50%, 40%, 60% cash ready to be invested lower. Those who didn't do this work, who said "Yes, I'll take my profits later. Yes, the market can't turn around, yes, it will surely go to $200,000." Well, currently, they are 100% crypto or even 90% crypto and they are suffering this drop, and there is nothing to do, in fact. There is nothing to do because you might sell too late here. In the end, you will sell at a bottom and just because you are not comfortable with the cash-crypto balance you have. This is something I've repeated, something I've talked about a lot, something I will continue to talk about because it is very, very important. Okay? And I know it, I see it in YouTube comments, I see it in Discord messages, many tell me "Wow, Nico, before I was 100% crypto, since then I have a cash-crypto balance that is well-balanced, and it simply allows me to be much more comfortable, much more flexible, and to be serene." And today, well, I have cash aside that will be ready to be deployed. I have, well, that's how it is. For me, it's years of experience, making mistakes, learning from others, learning from myself. If I give you these tips, it's not to trap you, okay? We are on the same side. We are just looking to perform in the markets. We are not enemies, okay? When you trade, when you invest, it's a battle against yourself. Now, of course, when I buy, there is a seller on the other side, and when I sell, there is a buyer, of course. But well, I don't know that person. My goal is simply to lift you up. When I give you these tips, it's not for nothing.
So, that's it for BTC. I'll continue with this trade on Solana. A magnificent trade. I rarely had a trade with so little drawdown that went in my direction so quickly. It has happened to me before, but not all the time, because I had a pixel entry and I was immediately executed, and the market immediately went in my direction. A setup that I present in the program, in the "Devenir Trader" program, for those who want to have it. Here, I remind you, as of January 1st, this is a program that will evolve for those who are not yet in it. We are in a very good period to join it if you want to give a gift for Christmas, for someone who wants to start trading. Well, there is everything, and this is a setup that I present inside, right here. And as I told you, the program is entering a new era soon. From January 1st, 2026, we are moving to a mentorship with even more individualized, more intensive, more in-depth support, okay? Lives and so on that will be coming. So, all of this, as I said, is in the "Devenir Trader" program. For those who are not yet in it, I invite you to join before the beginning of 2026.
I'll get back to my Solana trade. A magnificent trade here with an altcoin. I have a partial TP that was executed at two for one here because I always have a partial TP around two points where I close 50% of the position. I set my stop loss to break-even, and then I have my TP at the previous daily high. So, I had a magnificent buying reaction at the previous daily high. I entered at the pullback, and we see a magnificent reaction. I have a total TP here at the previous daily low. So, we'll just see if I have a buying reaction or not in the meantime. But for now, we have very strong selling pressure. We see volumes here that show us that there is good pressure in this bearish trend. So, well, a trade to follow, but in any case, a magnificent trade on this side.
Now, on Ether, we are losing the $3,000 level. It's not very good. We are still in this bearish flow with moving averages still oriented downwards. Here, if I put them, we see it clearly. We can do without moving averages. I remind you here that the tunnels are a visual aid calculated based on price evolution. But before that, we can of course analyze what the price is doing. We see it clearly if I draw my highs. Okay, we can do the chart. Well, don't hesitate, for those who are starting, just draw your highs. We have one here. Very good. Then we have a drop. Okay, we have a low at this level because we have a rebound up to this high. We have a high here that is lower than the previous one. Then we have a low here. Very good. So, it marks a low. We have a small bearish trend, I would say, with intermediate highs, but not big highs either. We will have intermediate highs on smaller timeframes to form another high here. To form a low here. Okay? To have a small rebound and form a new high here, a low and a high. You see? So, what do I have here? I have a bearish trend. I have a bearish tendency. To reverse this trend here, we would need to go back above $3,000, $3,002. If we have something like that, okay, then we would have a signal that would be quite good since we would have confirmation that we are breaking the pressure on the highs and therefore buyers would be showing themselves, reversing this dynamic of sellers being underwater, and we could have a small rally. Now, this is not what will bring us back to $5,000, but why not a small bullish trend, a rebound for example to $3,600, it's entirely possible, and to be in a big range, that's a possibility. Now, for the moment, it's not scenario number 1. Why? Because we remain in this bearish flow, in this bearish dynamic. And similarly to BTC, we take moving averages and here we simply look for confluences to continue the trend. On Ether, I have fewer interesting trades than on BTC, but in any case, it remains in a bearish flow. And for now, be careful to those who are looking for longs. It's exactly the same scenario as on BTC. On the short term, I will rather look for shorts to accompany this bearish trend, and I will wait on the long term. The $3,000 level is a level, I told you, that interested me. If and only if I have a buying reaction. Okay, for now, well, I don't have one. So, I will wait for the next level, $2,200. We see a deviation, a re-entry, objective to go for the opposite extremity. Deviation, re-entry, objective, middle of the range, opposite extremity. So, well, we will see how the market evolves. But in any case, on Ether, $2,200 is a good zone, in my opinion, to position oneself.
So, the US market, the US market is still lateralizing, okay, it has validated this M, this W, but not with a big breakout either. I will also monitor this, it includes cryptos. Tomorrow, we have economic announcements, okay? We have the NFP, we have the unemployment rate. So, these will be very important announcements to monitor because we had the shutdown in the United States, it's been a long time, and now we are starting to have announcements again. So, it's rather good. It allows us to have visibility on the next meeting the Fed will have, the next FOMC in 21 days with the decision on rates. Will we have a rate cut? Will we not have a rate cut? Powell's speech, well, all of that, we need news like this to know roughly where we are going, and the market needs it. And on the US market, as I told you, well, we remain at high levels, we are validating reversal structures, even if one could say that we remain in big phases of lateralization like this, the fact of going below the moving averages, you see, below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour, it's a signal that I don't like too much, and for me, if I dare to say, we are at a market top on the S&P 500. In any case, that's what the chart leads me to believe, in the sense that I have a 1-hour here that is above the 4-hour throughout this bullish phase since the crash we had in April. And now, for the first time, the very first time, I have the 1-hour plunging below the 4-hour. Generally, it's a rather bearish signal, and historically, you see, we start to have a 1-hour that goes above the 4-hour. It's a rather bullish signal. Okay, you see 1-hour above 4-hour. But when the 1-hour crosses the 4-hour downwards, we can start a bearish trend. Now, is it a trend that will cause a -20% or a -10%? I can't know. But in any case, we have a pause. You see the 1-hour goes below here, -5%. Well, that's okay, we quickly went back up, but otherwise, when the 1-hour goes below the 4-hour, we can expect at least a pullback towards the tunnel. So, it wouldn't surprise me on the S&P 500 to return following this structure around this zone. Then, we will have to see how the market behaves, of course, but we see that we have signals that are not great, with potential market tops in the medium term. We are not at a weekly MTP like we experienced at this level, but we have a rather bearish signal in the medium term, whether it's the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. So, we see that we have a risk-on market that is rather bearish, okay, with a dollar index that is structuring a bottom. So, we see that investors seem to prefer risk-off to risk-on currently, especially if the dollar index re-enters this level. Frankly, very similar to 2017, very similar. Almost a copy-paste of this lateralization phase. Okay. Pump upwards here. Trump takes power in 2017. Re-entry of the Mtop here to go for the opposite extremity and then re-entry again. Well, this lateralization phase takes power in January at this level, re-entry at the opposite extremity, and we might re-enter. We will see how it goes. But in any case, here we have a pattern that is repeating itself, which is quite interesting.
Now, regarding the altcoins you asked me to analyze. I'm looking at all of that. I have Lido here, LDO. Let's see. Where are we with Lido? I haven't seen the chart in a long time. A chart that never interested me to trade personally. We are still in this lateralization phase, blocked between levels. Let's delete that. We have a small reversal pattern that is potentially being swallowed up. We see in any case, we are in a zone where demand is greater than supply at this level, at this level, at this level, at this level. Well, it's normal, it's a big support level, but we are really under pressure here with increasingly lower highs, and lows at the same level, and the resolution will be very important. If we start to break at this level without re-entry, we are exiting a lateralization phase that has existed for years, and for me, Lido will never make another ATH. It's over. There will be so many blocked buyers that the slightest pullback will be buyers taking their profit, or rather taking their loss, potentially at break-even, and yes, it will be difficult to start again for the month. So, we will closely monitor the evolution of this support zone. But we are in a zone where we have a higher chance of a buying reaction. But we must not anticipate the buying reaction, we must simply react to what we see. And for me, what I see is selling pressure. If I also put moving averages, you see, we are below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour, below the daily, below the 3-day. We would need to go back above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour to have a rather bullish signal.
I was asked for an analysis of Solana. Where is my crypto? I'll take it. If it's not written like this, it's normal. Well, Solana, it's there are worse, there are worse, but for now, we are clearly in a bearish dynamic in the medium term, in the long term, we remain bullish in a lateralization phase. So, it's very simple. After that, it's range trading. That is, when we are close to the upper extremity, $200-$240, there is no setup and no signal that tells us to position ourselves because we are at an upper extremity, and when we are towards the lower extremity, everything that goes towards $120 or even lower, can be interesting. Remember, I had placed buy orders at $120-$80. I was executed for about 60%, and I took profit on this first rebound and on this rebound here. Now, I will see. We have a different context compared to here, where for me, we were in a deviation and had a high chance of going back to the opposite extremity, which we did in the end, my analysis was correct. Now, it's different because BTC is breaking its structure and sending a not-so-good signal. So, unless Solana offers us a small pattern here that shows me how I can position myself with a tight stop loss, I prefer to wait for now, because if we start to exit this lateralization phase on Solana, we can fall sharply and go back to much lower levels. So, this is clearly something to monitor. Now, on the medium term, it's the same, it's a bearish chart. Anyway, you know, if I take a short here on Solana, it's not to look for longs either on the 1-hour or 4-hour. Okay? I always have a convergence of timeframes. I always try to have, well, a 1-hour that is bearish, a 4-hour that is bearish, a daily that is bearish, which is the case currently. All timeframes are oriented downwards. We see that the highs are getting lower. So, rather in a dynamic where I will look for shorts. But be careful, we are going back to low levels. So, it's getting late to look for shorts. A bearish leg, a second, a third, a fourth, we are starting to be on a mature trend. And a mature trend, we can have a fifth, sixth, seventh. Be careful, we don't anticipate the bottom, never. However, we can be a bit more cautious and say that we are potentially at the end of a trend, but we don't anticipate it. I won't take longs here, but I can continue to take shorts, but being more prudent because we have a weakening momentum. It's normal, we are on a trend, as I said, that is mature.
And then, Morpho crypto, weekly. What I don't like about this kind of chart. There's nothing to do, honestly, nothing to do on this kind of chart. From a trading and investment perspective, not much to do either. In fact, we validated this W structure. It's going higher and higher. Very good. We have our neckline here. We've backtested it once, twice, three times, several times. And we are a bit in a compression, but this is a range. For trading with flat moving averages like this, daily flat, 4-hour flat, 1-hour flat, I skip the chart, I don't even try to do a deeper analysis because I know I won't have any trades that trigger. I prefer to trade the trend, and this kind of chart is unbearable to trade. So, I prefer to have a big bullish pump with +30%, +30%, 40%, like that, I clearly have a big break with good momentum, or even a bearish break, and then I can start a bearish dynamic and trade like we have here. See, this is perfect. See, 4-hour pullback, 4-hour pullback, this is interesting. This is also interesting. Bullish trend, this is also interesting. But here, there's nothing to do. And for the long term, the chart is too young for me to position myself. So, if we go up, it's too late because we are too high in my opinion. So, here I would rather do short-term trend continuation, and for the long term, either we go lower and we have a small structure like this forming, I can look for longs, or even lower. We can have a structure like I showed, just much lower. If we make an all-time high, there's no problem. But I don't like this kind of chart. And I have a history that is too young.
So, I'll leave you with this. Don't hesitate to join the Discord if you have questions, if you don't know what to do, if you are panicking a bit with the current drop. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.