Transcription
Welcome to week 10, everyone. These are your running back rankings, with a bunch, well, a couple of new names in the top eight. And Hayden, the other way we can, you know, title these running back rankings is "How low can you go?" with Alvin Kamara. I mean, I got to like, running back 26 this week, and I was like, whoa. So hopefully you guys have, I would say the top, uh, 13 or 14 feels pretty good. There's a decent RB2 tier, and boy, of these flex questions we're going to get on the Sunday morning show, I'm expecting it to be bad.
Truthfully, with Kamara though, I just said, like, screw it. We're going all the way down to the bottom. But also some really notable names in the 9 through 16 tier. Go through 38 names here today, and there's a chance you have two of the top five. So we'll kick things off with, I think, the plug-and-play top two. I'm not going to say for the rest of the season, but it feels like that so far for the last few weeks. That's Jonathan Taylor, number one, against the Atlanta Falcons, and then Christian McCaffrey here against the LA Rams.
First, let's go with JT. Harbs, the Colts have scored more points than any other team in terms of implied point totals over that projected mark each week, whereas the Falcons have actually scored the fewest. They are quite negative in terms of their projected points on any given week. So, this should be a nice bounce-back spot here for JT against this Falcons team. Yeah, I think maybe last week is just a reminder how pass-heavy this Colts team is in general. I think that's also been a decent positive for Jonathan Taylor because he's catching more passes, and it's also keeping them pretty balanced in general. So, there's an easier path for him to have explosives, and the team scores a ton of points. Or third in projected points here. Uh, there's really like nothing else to say. I think like what you just said, Jonathan Taylor, CMC, that's one, two until proven otherwise. And I'm going to need to see a lot of down weeks in a row for either one of these guys to, uh, get off of that.
The Falcons have done a pretty good job at preventing 15 and 20-plus yard plays. That goes both in the passing game and the running department, but as you said, they throw to lead and then run to win, the Colts do. And the Falcons have a 53% success rate against running backs, which is 30th, uh, in the NFL. So, like, that can put them in second and five, second and four, you know, third and two situations where the whole playbook is open there for Indianapolis. And the Falcons got hot there on defense. They were doing a lot of like cool stuff, but I think an experienced play-caller like Shane Steichen, he's going to have answers. And then David Onyemata, a linebacker for the Falcons, has been on injured reserve recently as well.
Now that we're in week 10, we have a number of these teams have already faced off so far this season. Christian McCaffrey is one of those. Back in week five against the Rams, McCaffrey had 139 total yards, a receiving touchdown on 30 touches. Uh, he actually had 33 touches last week. He actually leads the NFL in touches this season and yards from scrimmage. So, again, not to hammer home this point, but everyone just expected Christian McCaffrey to be injured this season. It's been all his teammates, unfortunately. But this is why, like, predicting injuries is such a rough business out there for the fantasy football community.
It's rough because the guys that get injured the most are the guys that touch the ball the most. And what are we looking for? We're trying to touch the ball the most here. So, my note for this is the Rams have not given up a rushing touchdown to running backs this year. It's, it's, we're in the double-digit weeks. That's crazy. Um, but that doesn't matter for Christian McCaffrey because he catches everything. Um, so, yeah, it's an extremely difficult matchup against the Rams. Uh, I'm nervous about the San Francisco 49ers in this game in general, but at the same time, whether they're trailing or leading, doesn't matter. Christian McCaffrey is going to catch, uh, some passes. And I believe that last game that the 49ers played against the Rams, they were actually up quite early and they were playing from the lead, if I'm not mistaken. So that could be the inverse here with how many injuries the 49ers have accrued since then.
All right, real conversation starts here, kind of. I mean, Bijan Robinson as the running back three. I will say that Bijan Robinson has really been stuffed on the ground. We talked about it in stats versus film. It's anywhere from like 25 to 55 rushing yards over the last three or four games. They face some nice rushing defenses, and then they've actually been, you know, a get-right spot for some, including like the Miami Dolphins. So, we will see what the Indianapolis Colts have in store here to shut down Bijan Robinson, who at least this last week had Kyle Pitts as his inline tight end blocking.
Yeah, this, I just don't trust the Falcons right now in general. Um, Bijan, this last month. And that's kind of how I look at fantasy is just like, what have you guys done the last month? He's sandwiched between Rachaad White, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery as like a clear RB1, but not nearly as close as the top two backs here. So, he's projected for 117 total yards in the pick lobby. I say total just because he's, even when they were not running the ball, he's going to catch a bunch of passes here, and that's going to be pretty helpful. But yeah, he's been a little bit of a disappointment recently. Uh, but you guys are going to see, there's really not that much of a difference to me between RB3 and about RB11 in my rankings here. These guys are all kind of sandwiched. And if we were like doing like real tiers instead of just making it fit on the screen properly, uh, there probably would have been a tier break.
Yeah, I mean, four games this season where he has 46 yards rushing or less, but at the same time, I think he played like 90-something percent of snaps last week, and he always has the rushing upside. But not trusting the Falcons has been kind of wise for most of the season. They're 28th in points per drive so far this season.
My last notes, you mentioned that he's a full-time player. They're using a lot of pony personnel. So sometimes his snaps are like, uh, not at running back. They'll actually have Allgeier out there, and he's almost like a slot kind of thing, which is, you, those are bonus points where other running backs would be off the field. And then secondly to that, the Colts are the best defense in avoiding missed tackles on running back carries. So, they're just not, uh, getting dragged to the ground or bouncing off guys. Obviously, Bijan Robinson is a difficult test for them, but I did find that pretty impressive, and it's another reason why the Colts are winning all these games.
Yeah, I think his first two carries this past week were in that pony personnel look where he kind of motioned in and orbited around and got the handoff and stuff. So, uh, maybe they felt, hey, we got stuffed by the Dolphins. Let's have a different counterpunch to open this first drive and get Bijan, you know, some offtackle runs there.
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All right, fun conversation here. My guy, Khalil Herbert, is your running back four. He's running back 17 in consensus rankings right now. This is against the down-bad New York Giants. Now, Hayden, this is with in mind DeAndre Swift possibly and likely not playing. This ranking is if he's not playing. Now, he did return just as we're recording this to practice on a limited basis. Uh, but Ben Johnson in his comments prior to last week's game basically said, "I have to keep DeAndre Swift from himself. I need to give him a bit of rest." We'll see if that lingers over into week 10. And if it does, Khalil Herbert is a smash spot here.
Yep. I'll have to update this once we get the DeAndre Swift groin injury finalized. This obviously assumes he is out, but this team's just been running the ball extremely well. Last week was like the peak of that because of matchup reasons. But the good news for whether it's DeAndre Swift, Khalil Herbert, or both, and I think it probably would be both if Swift does play, is the Giants are just getting absolutely killed. It doesn't matter, like, what metric I look at. Second worst against fantasy running backs. They've allowed the most rushing EPA by a mile and, uh, the worst yards per carry to running backs. I can't explain it because they have a, a strong defensive line. It just hasn't mattered. And I think that Ben Johnson's been like, really, really leaning into the outside zone and a lot of pivots off of it. They're using Darnell Wright in, in awesome ways. They're getting buy-in from their tight ends and from their wide receivers. I think that Cole Kmet is a better blocker than Cole Kmet at the margins, too. So, I love everything about the Chicago's offense right now. I think it's fairly underrated right now. And they're projected for 25 and a half points. So, it really just comes down to, is Swift healthy or not? But I even think if both of them were out there, they would both be top 20 running backs to me. You'll see a couple pairings in the top 20 or top 24 this week. I think the Bears have an excellent chance, uh, of kind of leading the way at the running back position.
Just to reiterate what you said, Giants are allowing a league-high 5.9 yards per carry to running backs. Bears have rushed for 145-plus yards in three of their last four games since the bye week. And look, these stats can kind of be fuzzy and they're not 100% accurate. Let's put it that way. But he did rush Khalil Herbert for a league-high 59 yards over expectation in week nine. And you saw it out there, like he was given the second level often when he was kind of bouncing off the linebackers and safeties. Yeah, Darnell Wright is moving people. Uh, Ben Powers from British Columbia at left tackle is much better as a run blocker than he is a pass protector. And as a run blocker, he literally took a defender into the Gatorade stand on the sideline. They weaponize him on these sweeps and tosses and like you said, cracking down, uh, Cole Kmet is blocking someone 80 pounds heavier than him. Yeah. And then they're able to get to the outside. So, Khalil Herbert is an inside runner and he's an outside runner in this system.
Uh, I want him to start this week and I want him to totally, totally smash. We need rushing yards over expected, over expected again, just to account for, you know, the Cincinnati Bengals because their tackling is just egregious right now. But same thing with New York. So, it's just a great spot for either one of Swift and Herbert. Remember before, it was a near 50-50 split in terms of snaps. I'm expecting that to be the case where DeAndre Swift would be the starter. They're going to kind of rotate around and as DeAndre Swift like gets back to full health, uh, with that groin injury, they're going to kind of like test both of these guys. I think both of them are largely playing pretty well. And I think that's a lot of it is just about Ben Johnson and the, the buy-in from the, uh, offensive line investments.
This is why we watch the preseason, you know, this is why we invest during that time because Khalil Herbert was a seventh-round pick. Then you watch him in the preseason and you say, "Oh, he, he has something to his game. He, he runs tough. He's a bear to tackle, literally." Uh, and he was rough in pass protection, but guess what? That has improved literally every single week. So, cool player, fun player in an offense that really has turned the corner since the bye in terms of their running game. Also a very fun player is your running back five. This is Rachaad White against the New Orleans Saints. You might have gotten a news alert that he missed practice on Wednesday with a quad injury. It's just a rest day, and Dave Canales says he could be back at practice on Thursday and he expects him, he's going to rely on him on Sunday against this rough Saints defense. Really rough. The last three games for the Saints, they've allowed 158 rushing yards to running backs. Um, last year, Chuba Hubbard had two rushing scores against the Saints. So, yeah, even Chuba Hubbard played really well. So, what does that mean for Rachaad White here?
Yeah, he went crazy last week in the most difficult matchup that we can possibly have dreamed about. This week against the Saints, the Panthers are now 14th in projected points at about like a league average of 22 and a half points as a team. So, I'm viewing it as a maintenance day. You did note though in the recap that Rachaad White was playing through that quad injury. So I think it's like a real injury that they're just going to battle through. They really need him. So if we don't get in like a full practice by Friday, I might drop him down a couple spots. But we know what the upside is with Rachaad White. If this is the RB1, and their only kind of downside case at this point would just be if he got injured because it doesn't matter. The game script will catch passes. They want to be really run-heavy for as long as they can. And this is a game where, uh, they should be in control. Yeah, it's the first time the Panthers have been favored this season. They're in at home here, and in his three starts, he's run for over like 200 yards.
It's wild. So easy. Now, on like a carry-per-carry basis, the Saints defense is not terrible. Like, they're kind of league average, but because they're down by so much and the offense has turned the football over, you know, running backs are averaging 26 carries against them per game. So that's allowed, you know, 220 yards to the Bears, 170 yards to the Rams. That is going to be the game plan here. Yeah. I mean, something always pops up when you run for over 200. Like he had the calf cramps before, and now he has the thigh injury, but they'll rely on him, that's for sure.
All right, David Montgomery is here as your running back six. This is against the Buffalo Bills. Again, they played each other previously. Uh, that was a short week, a Thursday night game, if I'm not mistaken. And Montgomery had 91 yards in that contest. What are you expecting for him here at home?
That's pretty close to the total yards in the pick lobby. Is that 97 and a half for David Montgomery? He's just been a total stud. So, I'm looking at the games without Tyreek Hill because I think without Tyreek Hill, that's good news for for him. He had the one game where you're in Cleveland and it doesn't go well, there's weather. If you remove that game from the sample, he's averaging 18.5 PPR points in the four other games without Tyreek Hill. This week, you get the Bills who are without, I think, most likely both of their defensive tackles for sure, Ed Oliver. The Bills have been second worst against, uh, preventing rushing touchdowns to running backs as well, and they're allowing the third most missed tackles per running back carry. When I ever watched the Bills and they obviously had a great game last week against Mahomes, they still feel a little bit slow, and they got good corners. They got down, two, two of them. I think they're weakest at, uh, kind of the swing passes and all the outside runs that David Montgomery's so good at. So, if, like, if I'm game planning for this, I'm adding even more David Montgomery to this. Um, so he's a locked-in elite RB1 right now.
Bills have also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs so far this season, which is 31st in the NFL. Yeah, I mean, the Bills defense looked fast last week. In many other games this season, they've kind of looked slow. So, uh, you know, Mike McDaniel can try to weaponize David Montgomery on the edges. That is for sure.
All right, Derrick Henry is your running back seven. This is at the Minnesota Vikings. Was the Vikings run defense in week nine a positive blip? Uh, or something that we should, you know, focus in on and believe in them moving forward, just like, you know, they were one of the best run defenses in the league in 2024? I think where they've been on average, which is 16th in yards per carry to running backs, is kind of how I'm viewing the Vikings. I think they've played at both extremes, but I think just evening all that stuff out is probably best. They have allowed four running backs to reach at least 99 rushing yards. That's Bijan, but it's also Kenneth Gainwell, Quintin Jefferson, and Kamani Vidal. So, do I think that Derrick Henry, uh, could have a, you know, like 100-plus rushing yards here? I definitely think that's possible. Ravens projected for 26 and a half points. Derrick Henry this month is RB2 in usage. That's despite only having Lamar Jackson out for one of those games as well. Uh, and I also think what they did against the Lions last week with Jared Goff and having like two, um, linebackers up in the A-gap, I don't think you can necessarily do that against Lamar Jackson just because you have like the zone read element. So, I think that it's a little bit harder to do that defense against Lamar Jackson, but Brian Flores always makes me like a little bit nervous. So, I think it's a good spot for Derrick Henry. The team total is really high up, and whenever they're scoring 25, 35 points, Derrick Henry on the Ravens has been a top five running back. Uh, and he's had three games in a row of 20-plus touches. Very helpful. And Patrick Ricard is back in town.
Yeah, Ricard has been such a big part of Todd Monken and this offense. And, you know, that might be a meme or a joke to some people, but think of how heavy the NFL is going right now with their personnel. Todd Monken was a bit ahead of that with, you know, the three tight ends plus Patrick Ricard on the Ravens offense. And, you know, that forces defenses into base or in personnel you want to attack. And if they go light from it, then boom, Derrick Henry and Patrick Ricard are going to run directly at you. So, it's a fun look, that's for sure.
Yeah, we talk about six offensive linemen a lot, and Patrick Ricard is not too far off of that.
Yeah, he's probably bigger than the Dolphin center in Aaron Brewer. You know, he probably weighs more than him. Brewer is a dog though.
Oh, I, I know. But I'm just saying like, Brewer is one of the, uh, most movement-based centers in the NFL. That was the first one that popped to mind because, you know, Jason Kelce has retired. So,
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Okay, James Cook is the running back eight. This is at the Miami Dolphins. Um, James Cook though, dealing with an injury. Give us the latest here.
Did not practice on Wednesday. It's a foot, ankle injury. He played through the injury against the Chiefs. He got it taped up, but did get kind of like bent backwards with his ankle kind of caught. So, it wouldn't be that surprising if he was able to play through it and then after, you know, kind of waiting around, it's a little bit harder for him to cut. It's also a good week to get him some rest. Uh, they're nine and a half point favorites here against the Dolphins. Now, if he plays, I would love to jam him in there. Bills are projected for the most points this week. The Dolphins are third, uh, uh, highest in yards, uh, rushing yards allowed to running backs as well. So, yeah, we know what it is. If James Cook is out there, he's ready to go. Think maybe the more interesting conversation is like, what if he does miss? What are we going to do with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis? Because last year it was all Ray Davis. This year, Ty Johnson's killing him in snaps. But it does make more sense for Ty Johnson to be the compliment to, uh, James Cook, where Ray Davis was, is more profiles as the, the grinder type. So, even though Ty Johnson has played a whole lot more than Ray Davis, I will probably be ranking Ray Davis ahead of Ty Johnson and would have a lot of interest as a major favorite here. So, Ray Davis, probably like more of like an RB2 with a lot of upside, and Ty Johnson gets you, think even higher than that.
Oh, yeah. I'll take it one step further. So, if James Cook is ruled out here, I think Ray Davis is an immediate top 12 running back, if not top 10 running back. Um, I think they just keep Ty Johnson in the same exact role that he has, and then Ray Davis goes in there because, like, when James Cook missed last season, I mean, Ray Davis exploded. 20 carries, 97 yards, three catches, 55. Uh, he's had other games of, you know, 11 carries for 63 and a touchdown. Final game of the season, 15 carries, 64, uh, a receiving touchdown on top of that. Yeah. I mean, to me, Ray Davis is one of the best handcuff running backs in the NFL, and Ty Johnson has even stolen like the passing down work from James Cook. And so, I just think he'll just continue to keep that role. And maybe we'll pop up for a few more carries and, you know, James Cook has given up the season. But, I think Ray Davis is in a total smash spot. And I would advocate for everyone out there that right now, like, drop your kicker, you know, and yes, speculatively picked up, pick up Ray Davis because you can pick up another kicker, but if Ray Davis becomes a starter for this week in a game, like you said, they're nearly 10-point favorites, then you have a top 12, at least in my mind, running back this week.
Yeah, I think I would put him as my running back 13, 14, right after Quinn Johnson. No spoilers.
Next, Josh Jacobs as your running back nine. This is against the Philadelphia Eagles. We've talked about it at length with this Packers team. Like, Josh Jacobs, they run the football a lot. Oftentimes it's not as successful or as efficient, and then like they don't run it enough sometimes, and then other times they run it too much, and they don't have these road-grading offensive linemen. And at the same time, you know, when they're kept to what was it, 13 points last week or whatever it is, uh, he's unlikely to score a touchdown. When they score 25 or 30, he's likely getting into the end zone. Team total down at 23 and a half, which is a lot lower for, uh, the Packers. It makes sense to me. The Eagles defense, I think, is just added a lot of bodies recently, and I think that's going to be good news. Like, Jalen Carter probably is actually going to play instead of spitting on people. So, I think it's just a, a, a rougher spot for Josh Jacobs. It is very hard to ignore what Josh Jacobs has done for the last year and a half, though, where he's been a top five fantasy running back. So, I can only knock him so much. He might not be as explosive right now while dealing through this kind of like lingering calf injury. So, I think RB9 is, is pretty good for him. He's been the RB6 in usage, RB3 in fantasy points this month. This is a, I think a little bit, uh, tougher of a test. Also, I do want to mention, I don't think I made an deal about the Jalen Phillips trade for the Eagles. I did not realize how elite his pressure rate number was. Brandon Thorne tracks it, and he tracks like quality pressures, and Jalen Phillips was fourth in the NFL. Now he's like in a more of a limited capacity, but they got the Eagles got Jalen Phillips, who's top five in this like pressure rate number, uh, for a third-rounder. So, that could be a pretty big boost for Philadelphia, who their edge rushing group, it's going to be a rotation there, but he might have the, the second most upside of that group now, aside from Nolan Smith when he gets back.
Moving on to Jahmyr Gibbs, who is your running back 10. This is at the Washington Commanders. Jahmyr Gibbs was stuffed last week. We discussed it on Stats versus Film. He was forced to pass protect, uh, 15 times, allowed seven pressures, uh, during that period. Uh, now, this Washington Commander defense has been just dreadful. Uh, we talk about the linebackers being slow to the edge all the time. Jahmyr Gibbs, pretty quick to the edge. Uh, Frank Luvu was set to miss this game, but he won his, uh, suspension and only has to pay, only, I think a $100,000 fine. Did I see that correctly?
Maybe it was 10,000 or 100. I can't remember. Anyways, uh, if Jahmyr Gibbs is able to run the football, which he should with this team favored, uh, this is a prime matchup to see some explosive runs on the outside.
Yeah, this is one where it's impossible to rank because he has not been like the top five fantasy running back for a large stint of the season. This month, he's actually the RB8 on RB21 usage, which is kind of like the floor. Uh, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that he can finish the RB1 this week. So, the Lions are second in projected points, almost at 29 and a half. And like you said, it's just going to be a race to the perimeter against Bobby Wagner. And like on top of that, Commanders, they have like three or four defensive linemen on injured reserve. They just lost Marshon Lattimore. Uh, they're probably like getting close to quitting on the season just based off of the standings as well. So, yeah, could Jahmyr Gibbs go absolutely nuts here? I think it's actually likely. So, I love all these guys.
Saquon Barkley is running back 11. This is a spot where the Eagles don't find themselves often. They are right now two and a half point underdogs on the road in Monday Night Football in Green Bay. Now, we just talked about Rachaad White. This Packers run defense got run through by the Panthers. Can Saquon do that this week? Even if Saquon really hasn't done that very often, albeit in his most recent game against the Giants, he did quite well.
Yeah, he went crazy before the bye. I'm assuming that the groin injury is pretty minor. I did like that Rachaad White just went crazy against the Packers. By the way, Saquon faced the Packers twice last year. In the season opener, he had 132 yards and a score, and then the playoff game, the wild card round, he had 123 yards out there. So, he's gone two for two against Green Bay. Now, that was without Micah Parsons, and I think just in general, the team's better right now. Uh, but yeah, still a difficult matchup. Packers are fifth best against fantasy running backs. The team total, like you said, only at 21 points. It would have to be quite a while since the Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, when everyone's healthy, that they've been projected for that few points. But, it does make sense. I did think like the big thing about that, um, Giants game was they used more jumbo and Landon Dickerson was actually out there creating space. I thought Dickerson was kind of like limping through things, and he looked healthier, uh, before the bye. Now you have a full, uh, week to get going, and there's probably some internal self-scouting with the new, uh, play-caller, too. So, I think you get a little post-bye caller bump as well. So, I'm expecting Saquon to close the year out pretty strong. This week is probably gonna be the most difficult challenge on the schedule, and he's just been like, kind of more of the RB11 on the entire year.
Next up is Kyren Williams as your running back 12. This is at the San Francisco 49ers. It was a major talking point prior to the season, and it's been a conversation point throughout the entire year. A split backfield, as we discussed during Stats versus Film. It was series by series. But to my eye, that has actually helped Kyren Williams. He looks more explosive. He looks more fluid. He's getting to the second level and actually like making people miss and reading his blocks and having more chunk gains on top of it. Uh, I mean, Kyren has a first down or touchdown on 29% of his runs, according to Reeves. The only player with a higher rate on his many runs is Jonathan Taylor at 29.9%. So, go Kyren, go. And also, you probably have Blake Corum ranked pretty high as we go along here, too.
Yeah, it was a legit drive-by-drive rotation last week coming out of the bye week. And like you said, it's been working because Kyren is creating more explosives. And that's totally fine for Kyren if he's more efficient, and the Rams stay as good as they are. So, like, this is a week where they should go crazy against the 49ers. They're fourth in projected points. So, there's like room for both guys to get home. Obviously, Kyren Williams, we trust him a lot more. Um, and I've also noticed he's being like used as kind of like a choice route runner, um, at times, and he's been very effective at it. And the 49ers have allowed the third most receptions to running backs. They don't have Fred Warner to prevent those kind of choice routes. And then last week, they lost Marcus Williams, a first-round edge rusher. So, it means Bosa, uh, Hargrave, now Marcus Williams, and we'll see about Bryce Huff. They're just completely toasted on defense right now. So, I think both guys have a chance to get home. And even though he's losing snaps, uh, because a team's so good, we really haven't seen it impacted in fantasy.
Yeah, it's basically 63-37ish when, you know, it's a positive or neutral game script. When they are losing, Kyren does play more than Blake, which makes sense for Sean McVay. And they were losing the last time they faced the San Francisco 49ers.
So, next is Quinshon Judkins. Uh, the Browns are coming out of the bye week. There's a new play-caller, uh, in Tommy Reese. They are facing the Jets here in, uh, the Toilet Bowl, one of them. We'll get many of them as the season goes along, by the way, because like the Titans play these teams and all that type of stuff. Uh, this Jets team again has not been a good defense this season. This Jets team has one win. This Jets team just traded away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. So, what are you expecting Quinshon Judkins to do to them? Uh, whatever he wants. To put some evidence behind that. On plays where Quinnen Williams was not on the field, the Jets are averaging 5.2 yards per carry against running backs. So, that's a huge difference. Like, that's like closer to like low fours with Quinnen Williams on the field. So, small sample size caveats, I get it. But in the three games where the Browns have either won and then also or narrowly lost, there's been three of them. He's had 18, 23, and 25 carries. I think we're going to see 18, 23, or 25 carries in this one, if not even more than that. I think Judkins is one of the best rushers in the NFL. It really just comes down to, can he be himself coming off this injury? It's this AC joint injury. Typically, you just get the beaver tranquilizer right in there, you play through it. Uh, I'm expecting that with Quinshon Judkins. This is one of those weeks where it's more of like a boom-bust, like upside RB2, where I'm fully expecting him to boom here. So, I think he's a great player.
Had very similar notes. I mean, and prior, the Jets allowed 167 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Bengals, and the Bengals had not been able to run on anyone this trail. So, hopefully Jud's shoulder is fine and he gets rolling here.
Rachaad White is your running back 14. Speaking of coming out of the bye, that's exactly what the Bucs are doing. We all hoped that that meant Bucky Irving was back on the field, but so far, Hayden, that's not the case.
No, I was pretty surprised by this one. He was not placed on injured reserve. His initial injury was in week four, and just been, there's been no news. So, he doesn't, it seems like it was multiple injuries, right? Like, there was an ankle thing and then a shoulder thing popped up.
Yeah, and remember his social media post was crazy. He said, quote, "I died on the cross yesterday. My eyes opened to who is here for me as a football player and who's here for me as Bucky Irving." And then goes on about it. So, that was his initial post after the injury. Now it's been over a month, and we haven't gotten any, anything. So, anyways, with Rachaad White, he's been the RB14 in usage this month without Bucky Irving. The Bucs are eighth in projected points at 25 and a half. It's a challenging matchup for him individually. The Patriots have been awesome. Third best against fantasy running backs. They're only allowing 54 rushing yards per game, which is 10 fewer yards per game than the next best defense. The Patriots are just awesome. Um, but they are first in receptions allowed to running backs. And Rachaad White is very good at that. And there's really just like not many other ways to to give the football around. Mike Evans not going to play. Chris Godwin also not coming back out of the bye week as well. So, if they're going to score 25 and a half points, how many touchdowns could we actually give to A.J. Dillon? I think that Rachaad White, even in a pretty bad matchup, is pretty live for a good game.
Yeah, the Patriots run defense, we bring it up on every single one of the shows, has been excellent in terms of stuffing the run.
Yep. James Cook, 49 yards. Jaylen Warren, 47 yards. Bijan, 46. Gibbs, 38. Montgomery, 30. But they have been allowing receiving production to a whole bunch of names, including Jaylen Warren. You know, we saw Bijan get there via receiving. I can go on and on with that aspect. So, Rachaad White is mostly known for his receiving work. Uh, so that plays into his skill set, albeit for most of the season, except just before the bye, he's also been an efficient short-yardage rusher. So, uh, yeah, the, the Bucky stuff is is fascinating. I'm, I just don't understand why he wasn't placed on injured reserve if he was injured.
Yeah, there's some like weird rules with injured reserve where you can only have so many players come back from it. So, I'm not tracking, I'm not tracking like if they've spent all of them or not, but that's like one of the reasons that we kind of don't know. And then sometimes, like your best players, you're not going to put them on injured reserve just in case they come back early. Um, but yeah, like we're way, way beyond the point that I think anybody was expecting for Bucky to be missing.
Okay, the next two guys are teams facing off against each other. You have Jaylen Warren as running back 15 and Kamani Vidal as running back 16. We'll start with Warren here. Uh, what do you want to add about his matchup against the Chargers defense?
I feel like I say this every week about Jaylen Warren, but there is just like a consistency and like a lack of positive or negative notes in his profile. Also this month, he's the RB16 on RB19 usage. The Steelers project for about a league-average 21 and a half points this week. The Chargers are 14th against fantasy running backs. He's not playing all the snaps, but he's playing a whole lot of them. He's still getting the goal-line carries. Pick 'Em Lobby-wise at 75 and a half total yards. Is there not like a more straightforward fantasy running back to you right now? Like, there's, I don't even know what else you can say positively or negatively about him. He just seems like your vanilla ice cream cone RB2. There it is.
Well, unfortunately, we were hoping Kamani Vidal was the epitome of consistency. Uh, ranked him as such, and then last week he pops up as the running back 44. Uh, rugp. So, you're expecting a bounce back. I mean, again, this is kind of a period where we're going to talk about a lot of these running backs that have ups and downs for them, but, you know, he's ahead of many highly drafted running backs here. So, why are you anticipating Kamani Vidal against a Steelers defense that did really well last week against the Colts?
So, last couple weeks, they held Josh Jacobs to 33 rushing yards and then Jonathan Taylor to 45 rushing yards. So, their run defense has been better than their pass defense, where they've been cooked for a lot of it. I still think they're going to pass the ball a ton here. This, there's nothing about this matchup that I'm loving about Kamani Vidal, but also last week, nothing really changed about his usage either. So, he's still just like a mini bell cow, and there's like nobody that's like out there trying to steal his work. It's like Jared Patterson and freaking Naim Hines right now. So, yep.
The Chargers are projected for the 10th most points on the week. He can catch passes. He's not going to be phased out of the game, and he's still the goal-line back. Uh, it makes me nervous that you don't, you don't have Joe Alt. And last week, I watched Heismann and T.J. Watt get to the quarterback with strip sacks. So, I'm guessing the Chargers game plan here is just gonna be a bunch of quick passes to Lad McConkey and to Keenan and to our boy, Aronda Gadston, but maybe that also includes Kamani Vidal getting out in space. So, like, not expecting RB1 usage, but for he's going to have 75% of the snaps on a team that, on an offense is expected to do well, at that's pretty good for this week.
All I'm hearing is this is the Trevor Penning bump from you.
Yeah. I mean, Trevor Penning, he can, he can create some lanes until the personal foul comes, and then until they get into pass protection.
I don't even know what.
17 is Ashton Dulin here. This is at the Denver Broncos on the road. Uh, you know, despite the poor blocking up front, Ashton Dulin is 11th of 44 running backs in terms of backfield players that have 50-plus carries this season in yards after contact per attempt. Uh, he's also since week five, eighth among running backs with 113 receiving yards. He is going to need to do both of those things against this Denver Broncos defense.
Tons of notes on this one, so bear with me. Um, last week, Dulin played 91% of the snaps here. He had five targets on them. And then I also looked neutral pass rate wise. It was the highest neutral pass rate of the season against Jacksonville. So, he's going to catch more passes than General. He also needs to do that because they're not going to be able to run on the Broncos. The Raiders are dead last in projected points, under 17 points. That's like Tennessee Titans level stuff. Um, and then the Broncos have also allowed the fewest running back receptions. And there's a reason for that. Uh, one, it's a good defense, but also they play a lot of man coverage. And when you play man coverage, you don't throw the ball to your running backs very often. And when you have elite pass rushers, you don't have time to check down. So, he's going to play a lot of snaps, but he needs them.
You're done.
Back to you.
Cool. All right. Next, Travis Etienne, running back 18, at the Houston Texans. Uh, his last rushing touchdown was back in week four. This Houston's defense, I mean, looking at the point spreads every single week, you know, the markets, the bucks care about the Packers defense, and they care about Seattle's defense, and maybe most of all, they care about this Texans defense. Uh, I mean, the Jaguars projected for just 19 and a quarter points, despite the Texans only projecting for 18 and a quarter points. Amazing stuff.
Yeah, it's going to be a slop fest over here. Um, the Texans have held running backs to under 60 or Etienne, uh, to under 60 rushing yards in four straight games. The Texans have allowed 3.7 yards per carry. There's nothing about this matchup that's clean for Travis Etienne. Just do want to note how much they used him this last game, and he's RB8, uh, in usage this month. So, I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't get 15 touches in this game. I'm not promising that they're going to go anywhere. Um, but they got him some like wildcat touches too, um, by the goal line. So, it's just kind of like some new wrinkles, uh, for both the running backs. Tank Bigsby did mix in a little bit, um, in some short-yardage situations, but that was after Travis Etienne had some cracks at it. So, um, I think he's totally fine. And since they don't have Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, the ball's got to go somewhere. And I think Jacobe Meyer is probably not going to be like fully ready for like the entire game. So, I think that it would make sense for Travis Etienne, maybe get a couple screens here, see if you can kind of catch, uh, this defense off guard.
First time they face each other this season, Travis Etienne had 16 carries for 56 yards, which is 3.5, uh, and didn't have a single catch in that game, too.
Yep.
Next is Breece Hall. This against the Cleveland Browns. So, the Browns, unsurprisingly, allowing a league-low 0.55 yards before contact on those attempts in terms of runs. Um, Breece has been really slowed down versus good rushing defenses. You can throw in the Broncos and the Bucs, heck, even the Panthers if you want to. Um, and the only running backs to clear, according to Rich Rebar's worksheet, 52 yards on the ground against Cleveland have been some of the best in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Trevion Henderson.
I mean, the Jets have no chance. I mean, every way I look at the Browns defense, it's like there's not a positive outcome that I could even look at. I was like, okay, they're good at stopping the run. Maybe they're bad against, uh, receiving, uh, numbers against. Nope, only allowing 18 receiving yards per game. So, it's like, I don't know how Breece Hall is gonna get there, but they have no other options, too.
So, he's gonna get the ball a ton. Like, the only thing I was going to ask you, uh, that maybe I'm not factoring in enough is just like the bad vibes and whatever the hell we're calling that trade deadline. Like, yep.
Is there like any outcome that like Breece Hall isn't playing as much, or or is it the opposite? It's like, hey, guess what, bud? Get your ass out there. We kept you for a reason. Well, the other part is we don't even know which quarterback is starting at this point. And so, you know, like Travon did get 75 rushing yards against this Browns defense, but we know all of those, except for one carry, were outside tosses and sweeps and just honestly running away or cracking down on Miles Garrett. And so maybe with Justin Fields, they could do some like zone read stuff to hold Miles Garrett to one side, or, you know, run tosses to the outside. But yeah, I don't know. Uh, to me, that was more of an outlier type of rushing performance versus, yeah, what a standard one could be for this Jets team.
Yeah, I might need to move him down even more. I do wonder if Breece Hall was healthy, if they just would have like taken a fourth for Breece Hall.
Yeah. Yeah, they should have either way.
JK Dobbins is your running back 20. This is against the Las Vegas Raiders. Um, I mean, just nine catches for JK Dobbins on the season, but then every time you actually watch him, uh, he's running well. He's just not really scoring touchdowns because R.J. Harvey is scoring all the touchdowns in fun ways this season. I will add though, this Raiders defense and their opposition has converted 46.7% of third downs. Uh, that's third worst in the NFL. So, while the Broncos have not been entirely successful so far this year passing the football and converting on third downs, this is the matchup to do it and to sustain long drives here.
It's a great spot for JK Dobbins to have one of his, I guess, relative boom weeks. You mentioned like there's kind of been this lid on JK Dobbins because he doesn't catch passes, and then you're getting all the Joker stuff to R.J. Harvey, but yeah, they're nine and a half point home favorites here. They're projected for the seventh most points on the week. And I think if you're looking at the Raiders, um, their numbers against running backs, keep in mind they've just like not faced any good running backs. So, I'm not saying that Dobbins is like some stud running back, but I think they're even worse than their numbers would suggest just because they haven't even faced that difficult of a schedule yet. So, um, yeah, this is just a great spot in general for for JK Dobbins. He's only the RB 26 in usage though this month. So, I got to keep this like relatively in check.
David Montgomery is your running back 21. He's only averaging 11 rushing attempts per game this season, which is a career low. Uh, but when this team is projected for almost 30 points, just like they were nearly last week, uh, then you can kind of bank on a Dave Montgomery touchdown, and he's very usable when he scores a touchdown, and then he's unusable when he doesn't. I think he's probably gonna score a touchdown here. Um, he also was just like playing a lot more than Jahmyr Gibbs this last game. I think there's like schematic reasons why, but Dave Montgomery also had like a rare fumble. I think we can kind of ignore all that and just look at what's happened the entire season where he's been more of like a flex play RB3, but this week that's enough. They're projected for 30 points. We already talked about all the injuries the Commanders have. Um, so, and I just don't think that Marcus Mariota against the Lions defense right now is going to be able to move the football. So, game script's on his side.
Trevon Henderson is running back 22. This is at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Played 75% of the offensive snaps. I just mentioned his game against the Browns where they clearly ran away from Miles Garrett. Do you think the Patriots are going to try to run away from Vea here? He might not get a single carry up the middle, and I, I would be thankful for that. So, it's just a tough matchup for Travon because everything's going to have to be to the perimeter, and then goal line carries, they just might not have them. And then they did bring in Terrell Jennings, not for like a goal line carry per se, but like just outside of that. Um, so, yeah, the the one positive Tampa Bay has allowed the most receiving yards to running backs at 58 yards per game. That's how I think that Travon Henderson is going to be able to get home. He made a couple defenders miss, uh, out in the flats as a receiver last week. Um, I thought the between the tackle stuff was still a little bit tentative, and he still had some issues in pass protection, but there's nowhere else to go. It's him and Terrell Jennings. It's going to be the same rotation as last week. It's just hard against Vea. It's like the league's worst rushing offense against the best rushing defense for the last couple years. Um, he's going to have to make do in the flats.
Yeah, I I think it's a fine play. I mean, it's not very often we get someone who's playing 75% of offensive snaps and then against one of the worst receiving defenses in the NFL, and his competition ran four pass routes last week.
Yep. Yep. Totally fine play.
Ken Walker is your running back 29. Uh, and then we'll just throw in Zach Charbonnet since we can have this double conversation as your running back 25. So, just a couple one spot separates them. Uh, Ken Walker did get two carries inside the five-yard line this past week. He did not convert them, but those were, I think, his first two goal line carries since Zach Charbonnet missed week four or whatever it was. Um, yeah, he's still a good player. You see him on all these explosive stats.
Uh, and then you see Zach Charbonnet kind of down at the bottom left-hand of all these marks. Uh, but we know what this team is in terms of running the football. They're not overly successful in terms of being one of the best units, but again, just being in those personnel groupings and formations is what's giving them so many explosive plays in the passing game over top.
Yeah, he had an explosive against the Cardinals back in week four. He had 110 total yards in that game. Charbonnet was playing, uh, then as well. So, uh, this is a good matchup for Kenneth Walker. Huge team total up at almost 26 points. They're at home against the Cardinals who, um, pay attention. And Walter Nolan might be a real player at defensive tackle, but aside from that, uh, not that strong of a defense. And like you said, the, I think the goal line touches last week was a little bit of a change from what we saw coming out of the by-week. Um, the first one was on a drive where Kenneth Walker played the entire drive, and then the second one was actually a Zach Charbonnet drive where Kenneth Walker actually came in, uh, by the end of it, and got another goal line carry. So, typically, it's kind of been more of the inverse there. So that's a little bit more promising. And I wouldn't be surprised if at the very end of the season, in the playoffs, Kenneth Walker gets a little bit more usage at the expense of Zach Charbonnet. We're not there yet, but maybe something like post-buy rookie bump or not rookie, post-buy buy bump for Kenneth Walker. Uh, against a division opponent, this could be an opportunity for Kenneth Walker to get an extra couple touches.
I will add this Cardinals defense. We all saw Walter Nolan make his debut, but Cliff Avril's, you know, >> doing his thing >> endless in terms of his ability. Uh, Josh Sweat has made plays. Even Zaven Collins made plays on that Monday Night Football game. So they do have some defensive line pieces. But at the same time, this is a backfield where they're six and a half point favorites. So again, is this one of those games where the Seahawks are up in the fourth quarter? And if they have some finally some rushing success, uh, that would be a big benefit to them rather than allowing these teams to stay in the football game.
Yep.
Good teams, I should say. And I don't know if I would call the Cardinals a good team.
I will.
Aaron Jones sandwiched between them as your running back 24. This is against the Baltimore Ravens. Uh, he exited this past game, but based on this ranking and him being here, you expect him to play this week? Yeah, he had like 12 of the first 15 touches last game before exiting, and then it was Jordan Mason from there. And that was pretty much what happened back on that Thursday Night Football game against the Chargers where he was coming back from injured reserve on a short week and was still playing ahead of Jordan Mason. So, I'm a little bit nervous just because of the injury and Aaron Jones is always dealing with something. Um, but I think he's going to get a pain injection and will play through here. Um, and I still don't know if it's going to be Jordan Mason or Aaron Jones at the goal line. Like, they brought in Jordan Mason for a reason. Um, so like he could be the lead back and getting touches, but not like the high-quality touches, and then you just never know with the offense right now with an inexperienced quarterback. So, he's fine. I would say he's a flex.
Dameon Pierce, your running back 26. He is the first of the Texans backs here. Uh, it is notable that C.J. Stroud has already been ruled out for this game. That means Davis Mills is in, and the Texans are only projected for 18 and a quarter points here.
Yeah, this is when it starts getting tough. Uh, I broke ties in favor of Dameon Pierce because offenses facing Jacksonville pass the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL, about 60%. I think that's kind of a uh Travon stat. So that kind of plays more to Dameon Pierce than Nick Chubb. I just think Dameon Pierce might be a little bit better than Nick Chubb. I don't think Dameon Pierce is even good though. But, um, if they're going to be trailing, uh, I think that he might catch a couple passes here and there, but I'm not expecting a whole lot from Dameon Pierce. Has been a fairly even backfield for the last month.
I think Dameon Pierce is decently talented, but we all different thing. Uh, there was also a computer generated player in British Brooks who got two goal line carries for the Texans last week and scored a touchdown on.
Yeah, that's not fun.
Who knows who that guy is? British Brooks. Britain Brooks. I have no idea what his name is. Okay, Bijan Robinson versus the Detroit Lions. Um, he only has one run of 10-plus yards over his last 51 carries in the last four games. And honestly, if the team is worse, he'll be worse because there are fewer scoring opportunities here. And they've been worse this year, and they're going to be worse with Marcus Mariota in too.
Yeah. I mean, they're 10-point dogs here. They're projected for 20 points. And on top of that, in the first half of last week, Chris Rodriguez was getting like real work. So, I mean, the memes were fun a while ago. They're they're becoming less fun with Bijan. I'm seeing a lot less Bijan on the timeline. He hasn't had a game where he's had over 12 expected points this entire season. He is, he can get to the perimeter and he can really, I think, make some explosive plays. It's just a lot harder to do when you're not on the field enough. And it's just a Commanders problem. We got rug pulled because Jalen Daniels has not been healthy and Terry McLaurin hasn't been healthy. They have not been good enough to give Bijan positive game scripts, and he only plays in positive game scripts.
Blake Corum checks in here ahead of some first running backs on other teams. We've already discussed this. Anything you want to add here about Corum?
Yep. The just the snaps did not make it seem like it was a 50-50 backfield. Last week, the game plan was to make it close to 50-50 in terms of drive-by-drive rotation. So that was just Blake Corum's drives did not last as long as Kenneth or as Kyren Williams' drives. So if that is actually 50-50, then there's a pathway for for Blake Corum.
All right, the Giants backfield is next. Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary. This is at the Chicago Bears. Fortunately, Singletary led the backfield in snaps with 31 with 10 touches, 51 yards. Tracy, 25 snaps, eight touches, 37 yards. I went on my rant in Stats Versus Film. I don't need to repeat all of that again. It just stinks that we're not getting the full Tracy like we did, uh, at the end, well, not even the end of last year, from like week six on. Yeah, last year, and it was nice. It was good. Uh, but instead, Brian Daboll wants to, uh, ruin our running back handcuff life here.
Yeah. Um, pop quiz. What do you think Tyron Tracy's total yards in the Pick 'Em picks? Um, total yards, I'll say 43.
It's at 64. I'm gonna be taking some lowers. I'm gonna be taking some lowers there. We'll, we'll see if there's an adjustment. That one caught me by surprise.
Interesting. I'm, I'm guessing the, uh, shadowy Pick 'Em figures believe that he will now be the lead ball carrier. And then the Chicago Bears defense has just been horrific.
Yeah. And they just lost Ed Rusher with the 20-yarder. Uh, okay. You have nothing to add there. I understand.
R.J. Harvey against the Las Vegas Raiders. Just one game with over eight touches this season, but as we alluded to, this could be one of the games where the Broncos score a lot of points and run a lot of plays. And if that's the case, then R.J. Harvey doesn't have to just rely on sweet, sick touchdown grabs and instead can get, you know, a couple yards here and there, too.
Yep. He's the Joker. And when do you play the Joker? Probably when you have a big lead at home against, you know, a division rival. And Sean Payton just feels like one of these guys that might, you know, keep the offense in for an extra drive or two to like run up the score. So, I've noticed teams are running away from Max Crosby. And I think that's where R.J. Harvey is going to come into play. I don't trust their linebackers and safeties, uh, with Las Vegas. I think this is a Joker potential week. Now, he's only the RB 43 in usage this month. So, we can only have so much fun before the games start, but, um, once we get to halftime, there could be some fun moments.
Yeah, you know, sweet players don't regress. Next.
It's honestly, that's a good, that's a good slogan. You should keep that one.
Uh, Jordan Mason. We talked about this backfield. Jordan Mason has, it's not just for him, like this Vikings offensive line, uh, has been torn up previously, but he's a good runner of the football, has nothing in the receiving game, and then they just haven't been a good running team on top of it, too.
Yep. Yep. And then J.J. McCarthy's live to run in goal line touchdowns himself. Um, so he's played threeish games with Aaron Jones. These are like games where Aaron Jones is like left in the middle of them. In those three games though, 9.8, 8.2, 9.9 expected half PPR points for Jordan Mason. Like that's like rounding up. I think he's going to be closer to seven points per game now versus some of the wide receivers you guys mentioned. I still might say Jordan Mason, but, um, I'm also worried about, you know, Ravens defense that's actually healthy against an inexperienced quarterback, and the Ravens could do some funky stuff on defense. So, we'll see.
Nick Chubb is next. And then after that, it is the Cardinals backfield. So, we have Emari Demercado ringing ahead of Bam Knight. Uh, again, a split backfield versus Seattle's defense is a recipe for disaster.
Yeah. And we don't, we can't get this backfield right either. At least I can't. So, it keeps going back and forth. Uh, Bam Knight got the lone goal line, uh, touch, did not score a touchdown. Uh, Emari Demercado played more, and then Michael Carter was completely erased from it. Like you said, it's the Seahawks, second best yards per carry to running backs, and that defense is only getting better, uh, in my opinion. So, you can roll the dice, but it's not gonna be fun.
There are, Oh, by the way, Jonah Williams has been absolutely atrocious on the right side, and then they tried the six offensive lineman thing, and they were even worse with that. Their former starting tackle, I can't remember his name, that's my mind right now. Um, he was just allowing like pressure after pressure despite being a sixth offensive lineman in there. There have been weeks where we suggested Tyler Allgeier could be a viable option. Those were weeks when like the Falcons were projected for, I don't know, 26 or 27 points. It's only 21 points. So, just not worth it.
Zack Charbonnet, we've discussed him. And then, yeah, if you've been waiting this entire video to see where Alvin Kamara ranks, he's running back 38 for you at the Carolina Panthers. Uh, even without Kendre Miller this year, he's played 51% and 58% of the offensive snaps. Uh, you know, the sunset is in the distance, and he is just slowly making his way to it right now.
He threatened the team like, if you, you trade me, I'm going to Cabo, you know. So, we'll see. Just to like add to the fire, Erik McCoy, the center, is, uh, just injured reserve. They traded away, maybe addition by subtraction, but they traded away another guard. And then Tyler Faga, the right tackle, ankle injury, he's now out, and that was not the case before. So,
He's had 4.8 and 5.5, uh, expected points with Tyler Shuck out there. You have, um, only two of five starters on the offensive line, and one of them's a rookie left tackle, and then Caesar Ruiz is whatever. Um, they're projected for 17 points. So, I don't know what else to say. If, if I was adding more names, I think I probably could add a couple more names above Alvin Kamara. But good news is the people that drafted Alvin Kamara, uh, they're setting for for fantasy baseball. Um, they're on to better things.
According to Reeves' worksheet, he has not had a touch inside of the five-yard line since week one of this season.
Yeah. And I didn't even mention Taysom Hill, which we're going to see some, some.
If they get down there, and they're not.
All right, that does it. There's your running back rankings. Uh, we have more shows, an episode Thursday, an episode Friday, and an episode on Saturday. So, be sure to lock in, hit that subscribe button, leave a thumbs up. We'll see you on this.