Transcription
Los Angeles Rams Chicago Bears divisional round. Everything you need to know in 15 minutes. If you've never been here before, welcome. My name is Max. I make these for every playoff game to give you a unique edge looking at run scheme metrics, coverage data, and overall trends nobody talks about because it relates to the scheme behind the game instead of the numbers you see on the screen. Without further ado, let's get into this breakdown.
If you guys are new, make sure you check out the description and lock in on socials, Instagram, Tik Tok, and Twitter. Make sure you follow. There's additional content on there. And make sure you subscribe on here so you don't miss any more of these breakdowns. Let's talk Rams, Bears. We can't talk either side of this game without talking about the weather. So, I found this article from uh NBC V Chicago. Basically saying it's going to be the third coldest postseason game in the history of the team. The coldest they've played since they lost 21 to 17 to Washington. It's going to be really cold. Game time temperature was just four degrees above zero the last time when they lost to Washington. Wind chill could plummet below zero with sustained winds of 15 to 20 miles an hour. And the question of snow, they don't really know yet. That's basically what it said.
Here's the thing, though. This Rams defense is damn good against the run. However, in the last five weeks, they've only allowed the third most yards per carry. Now, outside of that, they've been great against the run all year long. The efficiency numbers may be there, but running backs against the Los Angeles Rams have really struggled this year. If there's anybody who can break that trend, it's probably the Chicago Bears. But it is also worth noting they've really struggled against the pass. Sixth most running back receptions allowed. Fifth most running back receiving yards. 10th most wide receiver receptions in the last five. Fifth most yards and then ninth most pass yards per game at 253.8 in the last five weeks. When they run coverage, they're top 10 in zone coverage rate. They're also top 10 in cover three rate and they're targeted in the slot at a top three rate. If you guys did not watch the Rams Panthers breakdown last week, we talked about Jaylen Coker potentially having a huge game because of this factor. It's an enormous enormous part of this Rams Bears game and we cannot overlook it.
In terms of the target and scheme data from the Bears end against zone, Luther Burton is the most frequently targeted player. Coulson Lovelin is number two and they both see a pretty solid uptick in how often they're targeted compared to man coverage, right? They're targeted more frequently when they sees zone compared to man. When it's man, it's usually more Roma Dunce, more DJ Moore. Middlefield's closed, it's the exact same story. Luther Burden number one, Coulson Lovelin number two. Both see a pretty solid uptick here compared to middlefield open in the slot. Guess what? Last week with everybody back, Romans out wide. DJ Moore balanced. The number one slot route runner was Luther Burden. You guys have to watch for this guy, especially because they'll do things to get him designed touches.
Now, when you look at the game log from last week specifically, three for 42 is underwhelming and a negative four yard carry. I get it. Especially when you look at Coulson Lovelin who had what, eight for how many how many yards he had? 137. There you go. But you go look at the targets. Him and DJ Moore were tied for second most targets. More targets than Roma Dunes. Luther Burden is very very clearly a focal point to this offense. You even go look at the snap counts as of late. You would expect a pretty significant dip with Luther Burton when Merun is back when all these guys. No, he's out there for 63% of the snaps still. That was his highest since week 14. Like Luther Burton is a part of the offense. Now what's nice is it's opening things up for guys like Coulson Lovelin who I do like to have a good game in this one. But it's important to note that he is a huge part of this offense.
Now, the only thing that scares me is Caleb Williams doesn't throw to the slot often. When Odun was not playing, Burton was a little more balanced in terms of where he's running routes with everybody back. He is the slot guy. Like that. That is the main thing. But Bryce Young didn't throw to the slot much last week. And Jaylen Coker had let's look at what Jaylen Coker had. I want to find the exact number for you guys because it was ridiculous. And we talked about it a week before. That was absolutely a possibility. Oh, that's the Raiders, not the Rams. Absolutely a possibility that Jaylen Koker went off because he did it in the first game. He had a ton of targets against the Rams when they played in November. And then he had awesome opportunities. 12 targets, nine catches, 134 yards. That's the type of game that's presented in a possibility for a slot receiver. That's why I love love love Luther Burton and the impact he could have.
In terms of the Bears offense, they're very zoneheavy. They're top 10 in efficiency, top 10 in success rate. like they'll run the ball really well in zone. Here's the thing. The Rams are bottom 12 in efficiency, which is interesting to note, but they're top five defensively in success rate, meaning they will get the Bears behind the chains. When you see that trend, you're like, "Okay, they they are bad in terms of efficiency, yards per carry, but they keep people behind the chains." You'd think there's some explosive runs that could happen. The Bears have a Bears offense will have some explosive runs, but the Rams are one of the most sound run defenses in the NFL. Top 10 defensively in explosive runs allowed. this B sorry Rams run defense, excuse me, Rams. Rams run defense is sound. They'll stop the explosives. You look at the game logs against these Rams recently. There really hasn't been much. There really hasn't been much at the running back position. A huge game for Bejian. Sure. Yes, he carried the ball 22 times for 195 yards, but like outside of that, Kenneth Walker had a solid game on Thursday night football. Chuba Hubard, Rico Dow didn't have great games. Stopped the Cardinals. Shocker. But look what they did to the Lions, guys. Look what they did to Carolina last week. Look what they did to Tampa, to Seattle earlier. They're good. They're sound against the run. And again, I think the Bears will have some success on the ground, but this is not a run defense that's just going to bend over for you. This is not a run defense that's going to stop consistently like the elite ones do, but it's also not a run defense that's going to give you six yards a carry. That's not who the Rams are. I think the Rams run defense has a decent game, but I would still be looking at Luther Burton and Coulson Love. Those are the two pass catchers you should keep your eyes on because of the coverage, because of the slot targets. They should have solid games here.
The Bears defense on the other side is honestly kind of similar to the Rams. Ninth most wide receiver receptions last five, fourth most yards, fourth most pass yards per game, last five, 10th most rush yards per game, the last five, 10th most rush yards per carry in the last five. So, this Bears run defense and the Rams run defense. The story is not great against the pass, especially at the receiver position. Run game recently, the yards per carry efficiency numbers have been bad, but the difference is all season long. The Rams have been solid. All season long, the Bears have not on the ground at least. In terms of what the Bears do defensively, they're top 10 in manto man. They've been running a lot more man as of late. To be honest with you, hasn't really been working. Teams have been exploiting them like we talked about. Puka is very clearly the number one target against man. Oddly enough, his target rate actually goes down against man. He's more frequently targeted against zone, meaning the matchup technically could be better, but it's not really bad. Devonte's number two than Allen and Higgy three and four.
In terms of the target in scheme data though, this team is targeted in the slot, the Chicago Bears at a top three rate. Now, what's interesting to note a lot of that, and I talked about this last week, was because Nick Mloud was the nickel and Kyler Gordon was out. Kyler Gordon was back last week, which is important to note. The snap count for him, we'll pull it up really quick, was kind of telling to be honest with you. And Nick Mloud missed practice, I think Thursday. So, there's a real chance that the slot is shored up more than it's been, right? You can see here, 62% from his first games, two months. Like, Tyler Gordon's back. But my question then becomes who steps up because I don't think Jaylen Johnson is going to follow Puka Nakua around like it's not going to happen and man he's going to follow Devonte. If I'm the Bears and I have to match Puka Nua with Kyler Gord I don't like that matchup if I'm the Bears. Like last week Puka was the main slot guy and Devonte ran a decent amount of routes from the slot as well but all season Puka has been the most frequently targeted the most frequently used slot receiver.
Lately, they've been leaning into multiple tight end sets, which I want to talk about here because the big key in this game, I think, is Terrence Ferguson. I believe full participant on Thursday. You assume he plays on Sunday. That to me is an enormous part of this game because that is a big, it's essentially a big slot, a big slot wide receiver. We talked about him against Seattle the week prior. He had a huge chunk play left on the board because Stafford missed him on a no look. This is the key to the game. Terrence Ferguson is the key to the game. There has not been a game with all four tight ends, the Rams, all four tight ends since week 11. So, it is hard to get a gauge on where this tight end production is going to come from, but Kobe Parkinson's been the most consistent tight end out of that room. Last week, he had three targets from the inline tight end spot specifically. Higgby also had three targets, but none of them were from there. They're all from the slot. Here's where it comes, though. I think Higgby probably plays a little bit less. Terrence Ferguson takes some of his snaps in those 12 personnel settings and Ferguson becomes again a true big slot. If that is the case and they are targeted in the slot as frequently as they are, Terrence Ferguson is the differencemaker in my opinion. Obviously Puka, obviously Devonte Adams, Terren Ferguson would be the guy to watch in terms of where Stafford throws the ball. Top 10 out wide target rate, but he's also throwing to the inline tight end spot at the highest rate in the league. Terrence Ferguson, Kobe Parkinson, even Tyler Higgby, difference makers, but most specifically Terrence Ferguson, assuming he does play this Sunday. Enormous, enormous factor here.
In terms of the Rams offense, they're very man gap heavy and they are the best man gap team in the NFL in terms of success rate. I would be very careful looking at the Bears and feeling confident in the run game. The Bears defense is bottom five in man gap success rate and bottom 10 in man gap efficiency. They are also bottom 10 in explosive runs allowed. Look, I I look at this Rams defense. I look at this Bears defense and I see transparently I don't I don't see a huge different in in talent. Honestly, I think the Bears defense probably has more talent, but I do see a big difference in production. The Rams defense has been better all year and the Bears defense has not. You're watching Pukanu, you're watching Terren Ferguson, and you're definitely watching these running backs. Then you go look at the red zone numbers, guys. I'm not going to say it's a cause for concern. I don't think you you panic on this, but the Rams red zone defense is exceptional. Tied for fourth in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. There's only three teams that are better in the red zone. You look at Chicago below average. You can look at the red zone offenses and it does tell a little bit of a different story, but not really. The Rams are a top 10 red zone offense, so not as good. The Chicago Bears defense is again slightly below average in the red zone. That could be the difference. Bears do not have starting tackle, left tackle, Aussie Trapillo. The Los Angeles Rams are almost as healthy as they've been. I think the Bears do have a a good advantage on the ground. I do think they can take advantage of a Rams run defense, like we said, that's sound that doesn't allow big runs, but in the last couple weeks has allowed some explosives to guys like Bejian, even Kenneth Walker. To me, the Rams run defense is better. And I think everybody looks at the Rams offense, Stafford, the tweets going around about his record in the cold, Rams record outside traveling, all this stuff. And people casually overlook the Rams can play that brand of football. I think people look at the Rams, Puka, Devonte Adams, and you say, "Okay, it's flashy, high-scoring, prolific through the air, and overlook the fact that they truly can play a brand of football that can win him a game like this." I think the Rams win this game. I think it's going to be an awesome game, but I do think the Rams win.
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