Transcription
Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we're going to be going through every single running back in every game of week nine for fantasy football. We will be labeling them as a start, a sit, a flex, and we will layer on some context for each player. We do this every Wednesday. Tomorrow, every Thursday, we do the wide receiver version of this. So, subscribe if you're new to the channel.
Let's start off with Thursday Night Football. Baltimore at Miami. Baltimore currently 7 and 12 point favorites, a 51 12 point total in this game. As we check out the practice reports, all good across the board. Everybody's full. Everybody's ready to play and that includes Lamar Jackson. So, we will get Lamar Jackson back for Thursday Night Football, which is huge for the Ravens. Of course, this game is pretty cut and dry. We're going Derrick Henry in the must-start category. We're going De'Von Achane in the must-start category. And you do not want to play flex start or even sniff any players outside of these two immediately. Derrick Henry's line at 90 and a half. De'Von Achane's line bordering around 90 total yards, five and a half receptions. It's a beautiful, beautiful thing. When we get the teams at full strength, we can move on to the next matchup.
Easy come, easy go. Atlanta at New England. Atlanta six-point underdogs, 44 1.5 point total. We do not know the current status of Michael Penn and who the quarterback's going to be for this one. I don't think it's a massive difference for who's under center. I mean, it's Bijan Robinson. I don't even know why I'm wasting my breath. Tough matchup against New England's ferocious run defense, but it's Bijan Robinson. On the flip side, we've got Rhamondre, we've got Ty Montgomery. So, the Falcons defense as a whole has improved drastically this year, but for the most part, they've improved from a pass defense standpoint, getting interceptions, timely turnovers, as well as getting to the quarterback pass rush. Their run defense is not top tier, as you could see from the green across the board. They are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to the running back position, seven in EPA per rush allowed to opponents. We're also pretty banged up on the defensive side of the ball. So, we will be at less than full strength. When I look at the running backs here, we had a little bit of a pop-off game for Ty Montgomery last week, 10 for 75, had some big runs. That being said, Rhamondre still played on 72% of the snaps, and Ty Montgomery did lose a fumble at the end of the game. How it affects this game, I don't know. Uh, what we've seen up to this point, it seems like the New England coaching staff likes to reward players who fumble the ball. So, maybe he gets more snaps here. I don't, I don't know. What I do know is I feel pretty good about Rhamondre in the amount of work he's going to get on a consistent basis week in, week out. He will get the goal line scores. Ty Montgomery, despite the flashy plays last week, still not getting a ton of touches, still not getting a ton of snaps. So, he will be in the shaky flex category for me. Tyler Allgeier will continue to hover around that rather not shaky flex category. It's just not a good matchup for him.
Moving on to Carolina at Green Bay. Green Bay 13 1/2 point favorites, two touchdowns here, 44 and a half point total. So for the Green Bay side of things, this is pretty cut and dry. Uh, the Panthers defense has been good for the most part over the last like month and a half, but they did just get torn up last week by James Cook. So I'm not ready to to mark them as an elite guy regardless. Josh Jacobs, of course, is a must-start. And I guess I will touch on Emanuel Wilson real quick. He's getting a little bit of extended run here as Jacobs is clearly less than 100% with the calf injury. It's still mostly Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson will get some garbage time run most likely, but I don't think we need to get cute here. Like I'd rather not have him in my lineup, of course.
If we look at the byes, we have Cleveland, so Nick Chubb will be out of your lineup. We've got the Jets, so Breece Hall, Israel Abanikanda. We got Philly with Saquon Barkley. We've got Tampa Bay with some mixture of Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds. So, there are about four or five usable fantasy running backs that will be on bye. So, maybe you get a little bit desperate here.
On the flip side, we got Rico Dowdle, we got Chuba Hubbard, and they continue to just go series by series by series by series. No different than the previous week. Chuba Hubbard just happened to get in for the end zone score. Now, we did have some interesting comments from Dave Canales this week. They were asking about Rico. He said, you know, he wanted to give Chuba Hubbard a chance to like reclaim his spot after the calf injury. And then he noted like, we also acknowledge that Rico has ran the ball excellent and we don't want to overlook that. So, feels a little coach-speaky. Feels a little bit buzzy here. Feels a little bit like he's acknowledging what everybody's seeing. Am I confident that that actually changes in any drastic measure? I'm not. Like Rico's averaging six to seven yards per carry every time he's on the field. Chuba Hubbard's hovering around like three yards per carry. There's a clear difference between the two of them. Few things I'll say here. Green Bay's run defense really, really tough. The Panthers lost a couple more offensive linemen in this one. They were already down a bunch of starters. So, like it's a bad situation there in Carolina. Despite that, Rico is still having a ton of success on the ground. Are they ever going to consolidate it to one running back? No, not outside of an injury. So, like what, what I'm hearing out of Dave Canales, but I'm really going to believe it when I see it when it comes to this backfield right now. So, for me, I I think I have a league where I'm going to have to start him in a flex spot, but I don't, I don't like it. I'm going to have Chuba and Rico both in the shaky flex spots. Both probably going to be 10 to 12 touch guys like they have been the last couple of weeks. Depending on game script, they'll probably get down. Green Bay is going to chew a lot of clock. Carolina will try to throw the ball a little bit with Bryce Young likely returning in this game, but yeah, I don't feel great about either of them.
Moving to Chicago at Cincinnati. This is a 52 and a half point total here. The Bengals are two and a half point underdogs. These are both defenses that just can be had in whichever way you would like to have them. All right, D'Andre Swift's going to be feel good. He's been great for the better part of a month now, getting a ton of carries, splitting the backfield with Jamaal Williams for sure. I do like the matchup on paper and I think Jamaal Williams will have a pretty good game, but if he doesn't get into the end zone, he's probably not going to be very usable for you. I'm going to throw him into the shaky flex here. He's definitely a guy that you can start this week if you need to because the matchup is so good against the Cincinnati Bengals, but I'm not running out to try to get overly cute, overly smart to get him in there. Chase Brown has looked a ton better since Joe Flacco has returned, obviously. And the matchup with the Bears is good. The last three games for Chase Brown since Joe Flacco has taken over, Green Bay 4.7 yards per carry, Pittsburgh 9.8 yards per carry, the Jets 6.1 yards per carry. Obviously, the latter two are super soft matchups, but so is the Chicago Bears at the moment. I'm going to throw him into the dub flex category because I do think he is very much a flex-worthy play for you. He'll get a good amount of work, but he is really splitting snaps with Samaje Perine. He's still definitely not going to be a guy that I want in my lineup despite having like a relatively good game last week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The New York Jets. Do not get fooled by that fake gold of Samaje Perine.
Denver at Houston. Next game up 39 12 point total here. They are in Houston. Houston Texans are 1 and a half point favorites here. Now, very tough matchup for the Texans running backs here against this stifling Denver defense. They will be without Patrick Surtain II, which obviously affects the passing game a lot more than the running game, but overall could be a dip for the defense. That being said, this is just a a very good overall defense. Of course, it's still very much a split backfield between Dameon Pierce and Javonte Williams. They're, you know, splitting work down the middle. Dameon Pierce takes more of the pass-catching work. Javonte Williams gets a lot more of like the dirty work, the first and second down work. Tough matchup. Them splitting carries does not make me feel overly confident about it. So, they're both going to go into the dub flex category. I probably have Dameon Pierce behind Rico Dowdle, but near the top of it. Javonte Williams's going to get in here as well, but closer to the bottom portion of it.
On the flip side, Rachaad White's coming off of a three touchdown game. Had the really nice burst through for like a 40-yard touchdown. The other two were just checks by Baker Mayfield that White was wide open when they were inside the 10-yard line. So, I don't want to buy too heavily into that storyline. Again, the Houston Texans very good defense allowing the single fewest points per game to opponents. Better against the pass than they are against the rush. As you can see, EPA per rush allowed 11th in the NFL. So, not an overly scary matchup. The problem is like we don't really know who's going to score. We know Rachaad White is going to get the majority of work. He's not really catching passes. He's a little bit on or off when it comes to scoring touchdowns as well. So, White for me, I don't want to overthink it because he's been so good this year. So, when I look at him compared to like a Rhamondre Stevenson, I'd probably prefer White, but it's not a huge stretch to say that he's in that tier. So, I'm probably going to put him in the dub flex category. Put him at the top of it. Rachaad White's definitely going to be in the shaky flex category until we see more consistent work because they're still playing other running backs in Denver.
Indy at Pittsburgh. We got Indy's three-point favorites in Pittsburgh. 50 and a half point total. Jonathan Taylor, we can be blind and see that he is uh the runaway MVP this year. On the flip side, you got Jaylen Warren who's playing really well. I like the matchup here in terms of them needing to score a lot of points. So, I feel pretty good about Jaylen Warren. Not going to overthink that. Kenneth Gainwell is going to be in, you know, the rather not shaky flex category somewhere down here that you just don't really want him in your lineup.
Chargers at Tennessee. Chargers are nine and a half point favorites in this one. 43 and a half point total. Vegas just expects the Chargers to dominate which would leave Kendre Miller coming off of a 20-plus touch game. Big game last week against the Minnesota Vikings. I am assuming they are fully trusting this man to continue to just shoulder the entire workload in that backfield. So, he's going to be in the feels good category and honestly probably bordering near the must-start category at this point if you have him if you picked him up via the waiver wire. Like, you're feeling great about having him in your lineup. I mean, the matchup doesn't get any better than Tennessee. If you watched last week, like yes, they were going against Jonathan Taylor, but they that team just does not want to tackle. They need, they need a culture overhaul on the defensive side of the ball. They need to draft a couple guys that like contact because that team shies away from it like they are an introvert at a [ __ ] party here. So, Kendre Miller going to go straight into the feels good category.
On the flip side, you got Tyjae Spears and you got Tony Pollard. I don't feel good about either of them, but I will say I would prefer Tyjae Spears over Tony Pollard at this point. Anytime the game script works in favor of the passing game, which is basically every game with Tennessee, Spears is seeing more snaps. He's seeing more routes. He's seeing more targets. And it kind of feels a little bit like the Broncos in the sense that when they get inside the 10-yard line, it's not as cut and dry as like Pollard is the goal line backer or Pollard is the the short yardage inside the 10-yard line back. It's more like who is our best weapon to get open in space when we're down there. And it does feel like they're leaning a little bit more towards Tyjae Spears. So I like Tyjae Spears to Tony Pollard. They're both going to go into the shaky flex category though.
Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit 8 and 1/2 point favorites coming off of their bye here. 48 1/2 point over under in the game. Jahmyr Gibbs going right into the must-start category. David Montgomery, uh, I'm a little bit more undecided about him. He's just had so many up and down games. I do think coming off the bye though, they will continue to keep him fed. He'll be healthy. He'll be ready to go. I'm going to throw him into the dub flex category.
On the flip side, the backfield split here got really ugly really quickly with Aaron Jones cementing himself right back into like the 1A role pretty much last week against the Chargers. I still think Jordan Mason will be the guy who probably ends the year with the most carries. But right now, looking at what they did last week, Aaron Jones is the clear pass-catching back. I think he's probably more explosive than Mason right now. And they have a really tough matchup against the Detroit Lions ferocious interior run defense. His rushing yardage prop is at 38 and a half right now. Aaron Jones is at 33 and a half, but they do have him penciled in for 15 and a half receiving yards. I think right now based on the matchup and based on just the split and based on J.J. McCarthy coming back under center and us not knowing how productive this offense is going to be, I think they're both going to go into the shaky flex category. I would definitely prefer Aaron Jones to Jordan Mason. Um, but yeah, they're both going to be guys that I'm not dying to get into my lineup this week unless I need to.
San Francisco at the New York Giants. Easy come, easy go. Christian McCaffrey is going to be a must-start. Of course, this is a 2 and a half point spread in favor of the 49ers. 48 and a half point total. Kind of interesting there. Surprised the spread's only 2 and a half. I think that's going to be an easy uh slip for me to make out there. I believe they should be getting Brock Purdy back. I I don't want to guarantee that because turf toe is quite tricky, but they should be getting Brock Purdy back and this offense should be nearing close-ish to full strength. We don't have practice reports yet, so I don't know what Ricky Pearsall's status is, but K.D. back, Jauan Jennings getting healthier by the week, Brock Purdy back, defense is still kind of a a shiv out there, but it's just surprising that the Niners are giving just two and a half points. I get it. They're, you know, they're going cross country into New York, but you lose a guy like Saquon Barkley, you lose Malik Neighbors, like they don't have a ton left on offense. But, you know, behind Saquon Barkley, they got Tyrone Tracy Jr. So, I think Tyrone Tracy Jr. is just a a dub flexer. I don't love the matchup and I don't think it's a guarantee for him to explode and and hit right out the gate, but I do think he'll be a 70% snap guy. He'll catch passes. We'll see if he'll get into the end zone. It's a relatively tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, but you know, Vegas is expecting this to be a pretty good game environment, 48 12 point total here. And again, he's a starting running back. We saw him throw up, you know, week in, week out RB2 numbers last year. A lot of it had to do with floor, but he's also is an explosive player that can make plays in the pass-catching game. So, I don't want to underrate his ceiling as well. So, I I really like Tyrone Tracy Jr. He's a dub flex for sure, and I think he'll end up being ranked inside my top 20 22 rankings. And ultimately, when I finish my rankings, which I'm working on right now, I think Tracy Jr. is going to be my RB 18 or 19 on the week. But this is why I make these tiers, because like just because a guy's 17 versus 18, I might feel much differently about a D'Andre Swift down to a Rhamondre Stevenson. That's where the tiers really come into play and hopefully help you guys out during these decisions. By the time you guys see this video, my rankings will be finalized. They will be up on the site BDGE.co. The only way to see them, of course, is to become a Big Dog member. Sign up for the monthly membership. That will get you our sit/start rankings. That will get you our waiver wire rankings with FAB suggestions. That will get you our private Q&A live stream that helps you personally ask questions for your sit/start problems weekly. All right, become a Big Dog member. The cheapest way to do that is by going to our partner MGM, either their app, their website, downloading it, depositing $10 or more with code BDGE. When you do so, play any slip on there. We love the Niners minus 2 and a half right now. Soon as you do that, they're going to send you an in-app promo code that you can use on our website BDGE.co to become a Big Dog member free for 3 months. All right, you get three months of the Big Dog membership just for playing a $10 slip or more on there with code BDGE.
Moving into the 4:00 games, we've got Josh Jacobs and the Raiders coming off of their bye. They are three-point underdogs against Jacksonville, 45 12 point total. Jacobs is going to be a guy that after the bye, I expect him to just get fed carries, fed volume, fed touches here. He's going to be in the feels good category.
On the flip side, Travis Etienne Jr. just really not gotten it going since the early part of the year. It's, it's more of just like an overall run game problem here. Like him and Tank Bigsby looked good early on, but that was against very, very easy cupcake matchups the first couple of weeks, and now that they're playing harder teams, it's getting a little bit more difficult. But the Raiders are not an overly difficult team to run against. Uh, they are on a touch per rush basis as you could see a little bit more difficult than probably given credit for but because they are just a team that gets dominated. The other teams get volume, they get touches, they end up scoring a decent amount of fantasy points because they just dominate game script here. Though Jaguars are only three-point favorites in this one. So it doesn't look like they're going to run away here. Etienne Jr. for me, I don't know that I feel good about him, but he definitely deserves to be in the dub flex category. He gets enough touches. This is an offense that I think can explode on any given week. And I think Etienne Jr. can be a dude that explodes on any given week as well because of his burst and, you know, the the matchup despite the efficiency from the Raiders rush defense is not one that scares me whatsoever. Tank Bigsby is going to find himself in the rather not category.
Next up we got New Orleans at the LA Rams. The Saints are 14 point underdogs. 43 and a half point total. The Rams coming off of their bye should be at full strength on both sides of the ball. And yeah, I mean, this is as tough of a matchup as as comes for an opposing offense here. Kyren Williams, love the matchup for him. He's going to go into the must-start against the Saints here. Blake Corum's going to be a rather not. Devin Neal is going to be a rather not. And then Alvin Kamara is a little bit tricky. I don't think he deserves to be in the dub flex category. Man, he just has not shown the same juice, burst, just production that he has in recent years. It's just getting worse and worse. I would say maybe the saving grace. They have Tyler Shough starting at quarterback this week. So, I think you need to leave a little bit of room for the fact that maybe he's better than Spencer Rattler. There's always that possibility. And also, maybe he prefers checking down to a guy like Alvin Kamara instead of throwing it deep to Rashid Shaheed instead of throwing it to a whatever the case may be, right? I think you need to leave open the possibilities of both of those things happening. That being said, he's definitely going to the shaky flex category. Probably closer to the top than the bottom for sure, but I don't think he's a guy that you need to have in your lineup just based on what we've seen out of Kamara and the run game for the Saints this year.
Next up, we got Kansas City and we've got Buffalo. KC is two and a half point favorites in Buffalo. 52 and a half point total here. Yeah, I mean, listen, James Cook is going right into the must-start tier. Don't care about the matchup. Everybody in fantasy is just so reactionary. It's like, "Oh, James Cook's not good anymore." And then he explodes for 8,000 yards. And that's just fantasy. Again, you should look at the rankings of players over like the course of a of a month. We're not playing DFS here. So, James Cook, he's a high-end RB1. He will produce like that over the course of a month period.
The flip side is where things get interesting because Isiah Pacheco is going to be week to week now. He's going to miss this game, I think, for sure in Buffalo. I don't know that he's been ruled out, but they said the sprain in his knee will be week to week, which I'm pretty sure puts him out. They have their bye in week 10. So it would make sense that he sits against Buffalo, has the bye in week 10, and then maybe can come back in week 11. I don't think that's guaranteed. But for the time being, the Bills run defense is pretty soft. But the Chiefs are one of those teams when they actually need to play a game and they actually need to have their best offense, they throw the ball at such a high rate that I I really don't expect Jerick McKinnon to get like an insane amount of touches on the ground because I know that the Chiefs are just one of those smart teams that they're like, "Okay, if we're running this number of plays, why not give our best players, Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, the opportunity to touch the ball the highest percentage." You know, they're just they just don't overthink those things. They do try to establish their run a little bit and Jerick McKinnon will be the short yardage back. So, when you're putting yourself in the offense of the Kansas City Chiefs, who right now are looking like one of, if not the best offenses in the NFL at this very current moment at full strength, McKinnon's going to get a lot of goal line opportunities. So, I think he's probably a solid RB2 option this week. I'm going to throw him into the dub flex category. He hasn't been catching a ton of passes. We're probably not going to see any explosive plays out of him, but the matchup is good. And again, if they find themselves within the 5-10 yard line, it's going to be Jerick McKinnon that they lean on. Also, you know, looking back to last year once Pacheco got hurt, they signed Jerick McKinnon off the street and it was just 17 opportunities in the first game and then it spiked up to 28 opportunities, 24 opportunities, 22, 28, 24, like consecutive games. They started to feed him a little bit less down the stretch obviously when Pacheco came back, but then Pacheco didn't really look like himself, so they kept giving McKinnon the ball. They did play Buffalo twice last year. They were in Buffalo for the first game. He went 14 for 60 on the ground, zero touchdowns, zero catches. They played him in the playoffs again. McKinnon, 17 for 64, one touchdown on the ground, one catch for six yards. So, mixed results. Overall, I think if he doesn't score a touchdown, he's probably going to get you 7 to 8 points. If he scores a touchdown, you know, it's going to be a nice day of 14 or 15 for you. Maybe he scores two touchdowns like he did last week, and then that's a big day, obviously. So, you can do a lot worse than Jerick McKinnon this week. End of story is really where I leave that.
Rashaad White gets interesting. He will definitely see an uptick in snaps. I don't know how many carries they're going to give him. They haven't really shown a propensity to give him real carries. I believe he lost a fumble at the end of the game on Monday Night Football as well. But yeah, they they don't want to run their run game through him. That's pretty abundantly clear unless they're up by like four touchdowns, which they were against the Raiders. But I do think you can do worse than Rashaad White. I'm actually going to throw him into the shaky flex category. He should catch three, four, five passes in this one and then maybe he does see an uptick in carries to, you know, 6-8 and maybe he'll get a goal line touch there.
Moving to Sunday Night Football, we've got Seattle at Washington. So, Seattle's going to have to travel across country here. Washington is three-point underdogs, 47 and a half point total. It is looking like they're going to get Jayden Daniels back for this game. Not a guarantee, but uh, that is the way it's looking like it is trending. That being said, Seattle is an unbelievably tough run defense to get anything going against. Zach Charbonnet seeing the lion's share of touches, but it's just not turning into anything. So, right now, he's definitely a shaky flex at best. DeeJay Dallas is catching passes, but he's a rather not.
On the flip side, I mean, I I don't, I don't know what to tell you. Washington's run defense has been ass, but it's Kenneth Walker III on the goal line every single time. Zach Charbonnet just gets you 70 yards and zero touchdowns every game. Of course, he's probably due for a touchdown, so I don't want to write him off completely, but I think they're both just going into the shaky flex category because if Charbonnet doesn't score, he's going to give you five to six points. If Kenneth Walker III doesn't score, he's going to do the same. If either of them do score, then they feel good in your lineup. Walker is obviously a lot more talented and this is a good matchup that he could absolutely take advantage of. But do I feel good about it? Definitely not. Overall, they're just going to sit in the shaky flex category for me.
Last game of the week. We've got Monday Night Football. Arizona at Dallas. 54 12 point total here is [ __ ] ridiculous for a Kyler Murray led team, but the Dallas Cowboys are two and a half point favorites. We're putting Tony Pollard right into the must-start category. He's just scoring touchdowns at a rate like Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs. It is absurd. We don't want to start anyone else in Dallas's backfield.
Now, the Cardinals backfield gets interesting. It was looking like Zonovan Knight was going to be a sneaky sharp play this week because they released Michael Carter. Then they resigned him to the practice squad. Then they elevated him to the active roster. I don't know the details behind it. I didn't really read into it because whatever. But then a beat reporter that I follow for the Cardinals, I think his name's Tyler Drake on Twitter said, "Okay, Michael Carter was leading the running back drills at practice now on Tuesday." So, I don't know what to make of it. At the time of this filming, I'm filming this at like 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning. So, I can't give you any sort of like concrete news. I'm sure we will hear some reports come out through the next three or four days of practice that tell us like who's going to be the starter, who's likely to get more carries here. I do feel like it's probably leaning more towards Zonovan Knight than it is Michael Carter. And I will say if the reports come out where it's like, yeah, it's clearly Zonovan Knight's backfield, they're playing against Dallas, who is like one of, if not the worst run defense in the NFL right now, he'll actually probably find himself in the dub flex category. But right now, because of the uncertainty, Michael Carter is going to be a rather not. And I think Zonovan Knight, barring reports, will be in the shaky flex category uh because the matchup is so juicy. So, it's definitely a situation to keep an eye on there with the re-signing of Michael Carter, him being reactivated to the active roster and getting back at practice right away. I don't know what the [ __ ] went on there. Maybe it was a money situation, maybe it was a roster, whatever.
Well, there you have it. That is the running back ranking video for week 9. As always, if you want all of my rankings, you can find them on BDGE.co. Become a Big Dog member. Easiest and cheapest way to do it. Three months free of the membership if you go to MGM app website. Deposit $10 or more with code BDGE. Place any slip on there doing so if you're a first-time depositor and they will give you a promo code to get our membership for free for 3 months. All right, thank you all for hanging out with me today. We'll see you tomorrow for the wide receiver version of this video. Smoochis. Wow. [Music]