Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to meet you again for this breaking news video of Tuesday, September 23, 2025, in front of a crypto market. So, one might think it's green, but beware, this is the performance over the last 24 hours. Yesterday morning, it dropped sharply, but throughout yesterday, it stagnated slightly. So the difference between yesterday morning and this morning is green, but the cryptos are not very, very pretty.
So, as every morning, I sent you a video on the VIP Telegram channel, a video that lasts 12 minutes where I explain how I personally see things. It's a fairly detailed trading-type analysis. So don't hesitate to go and watch it. In any case, you will see what I think of the market right now.
On the traditional market side, we see that Nvidia and Apple continue to drive the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up. Why? Because we have magnificent Nvidia and Apple candles of 3.93% and 4%, these are big candles. Nvidia has injected 100 billion dollars into AI, so of course investors are very bullish, and Apple too because sales of the latest iPhone are higher than expected. And so we continue to have all-time records driven by tech, especially Nvidia, which is pushing everyone. It's the same story as in previous years. Nvidia pushes. As soon as Nvidia stops pushing, things could become less pretty. For now, futures are a bit mixed around 0%.
Today, we need to pay attention to Jerome Powell, the chairman of the central bank, who will speak at exactly 6:35 PM. It's precise. We'll see what he tells us. Knowing that last Wednesday, he gave a good overview of the macroeconomy. He wasn't very bullish; basically, for him, inflation is likely to rise further. Employment is likely to fall further. Welcome to stagflation, even if he didn't say that, he said he would navigate by the data. It's logical, he said not to expect a defined trajectory, meaning not to expect two rate cuts by the end of the year as self-proclaimed traders expect. So we'll see if tonight at 6:35 PM he still has his gun on the same shoulder, or if the gun changes shoulders and he suddenly becomes bullish again. And we don't think so because no macro figures have been released since then.
However, this week, inflation figures will be released. So it's strange that he's speaking just before the inflation figures. Well, so, what are the latest news?
So, Bitcoin is going to aim for $11,500. What do other analysts think? Well, first of all, we have some good news. The premium on Coinbase is positive. This means Americans are buying, Americans are rather in "buy the dip" mode. We also see it on this metric. Basically, it's the apparent demand for Bitcoin over the last 30 days. It's the moving average, and it's positive. So there is demand, there is buying. You'll tell me, "But why the crypto dips?" It's the long-term holders, okay? It's the big whales, the old whales who are selling. But for now, it's the small fish, us, we are small fish, who are buying, especially the small American fish who are buying. That's why the premium is positive! So that's the good news.
Now, can Bitcoin continue to fall? Yes, it's not because the small fish and the Coinbase premium are positive that it will continue, that it will bottom out and push up. It can fall a bit. It's all a matter of ratio between selling and buying, between selling pressure and buying pressure. What are the next zones? Well, we are in a zone here that can hold between approximately around 113,000, between 110 and 113. Can we go below 107? Yes. If the structure needs to be validated, to have a good structure, Bitcoin will go below 107. Can it go for a little trip to 100,000? It remains possible. Knowing that the 200-day moving average, the average price of Bitcoin over 200 days, these are moving averages that are often revisited when we have major corrections, and it's around $103,000. So if I have to stick my neck out to validate the structure, it needs to go below 107,000. So I would give you a range between 107,000 and 103,000 to find a good bottom.
Well, now you need to know that the average purchase cost for short-term holders is at 11,400. So if the market wants to make people capitulate, if the market wants short-term holders who bought Bitcoin not long ago to sell at a loss, it will go below $111,400.
We also have other interesting data: Raul Pal, the founder of Real Vision, tells us that what is happening now is the same story, and I'm telling you the same thing, it's the same story that has been happening for so many years. Raul says the crypto market is focusing on a big breakout, meaning on "to the moon," and before the first attempt fails, many are liquidated, and then that's when it starts again. Basically, what happened? Well, it was euphoria, it was too much euphoria on the open interest, and the euphoria was mainly driven by Ethereum. I'm talking about it. Why? Because in fact, open interest on Ethereum exploded. All-time record for leveraged positions opened on Ethereum. What were these leveraged positions? Well, they were mostly longs. And what does the market do? It punishes. Knowing that open interest on Ethereum was twice as high as on Bitcoin. That's unprecedented. That's not normal. Bitcoin is much larger than Ethereum. So the bigger you are, the more futures contracts you concentrate on yourself. That's normal. Basically, it was too much euphoria on Ethereum, in "Ethereum to the moon" mode, it's too great. Go to $10,000 and so on. Yeah! Big positions were opened on it. What does the market do? It sees that and says, "Wait, don't worry, I'm purging, same story, anyway, I warned you two weeks ago because it's the same story that happens every time." So, well.
And we also have Bullish Bears, a Bitcoin researcher, who tells us that when the leverage on altcoins reaches such a level, so we had open interest with Ethereum first, and altcoins followed because it created a bit of hype around altcoins, well, when altcoin leverage reaches such a level, the market doesn't ignore it. A brutal breakdown triggers cascading liquidations. This is how weak hands are eliminated and things are put back in order. As usual.
We also have Nassar Hashcar, Director of Strategy at SHC INW, who tells us that a "flush out" is bam, it's direct, you see, a big rapid descent could represent a short-term adjustment rather than a change in the current long-term trend. Basically, what he's telling us is that we're not seeing a reversal, that the bear market is over, it's just a cleanup of positions. Can the cleanup continue lower? It can continue lower. We'll see about that. Anyway, this morning, I made you a nice 12-minute video. This evening, as announced, we'll also look at all of that, of course.
And we also have a market analyst named Tony Sykor, who tells us that technically, a return to a zone between $100,000 and $105,000, around the 200-day moving average which is at $103,000, is logical. It would eliminate the weakest hands, it would eliminate the latecomers, it would create a good purge on futures contracts, and we would really start again very cleanly in "to the moon" mode.
Well, we still have positive news. MicroStrategy bought, well, they bought only 850 Bitcoins for 100 million dollars. That's what MicroStrategy announced yesterday. It remains ridiculous, in fact. In fact, they simply don't have any more money. But we can't blame them. They bought so many thousands, tens of thousands of Bitcoins with all the sales of the different stocks they created that at some point, you just have to look for what you have in the back of your drawers and under the carpets. So they bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin. That's nothing. It's falling a lot. Knowing that in July, MicroStrategy bought over 31,000 Bitcoins, in August 7,700, and now in September, which ends in a week, we are at 3,000. It's the slowdown in purchases. Well, we don't blame them. They don't have any more money, it's normal at some point.
And Michel Saylor also tells us that if large institutions enter the scene, volatility will decrease, and it will be boring for Bitcoin. But it's because it will be boring that the adrenaline rush will drop. But that's what will attract institutional investors because I've seen quite a few, well, we've been talking about it for quite some time. Many are reluctant. I'm talking about big institutional investors because Bitcoin is too volatile. That was really the number one argument. It's too volatile. They are right. You buy a Bitcoin, three months later, you can be down 30-40%, it's too volatile. However, if volatility decreases, it will attract many more investors from traditional finance to Bitcoin.
On the other hand, we have the Japanese company Metaplanet, which made big purchases. Yesterday, they said, "Hey, we bought 5,419 Bitcoins." Wow! Huge, huge. So now, MicroStrategy has no more money, but on Metaplanet's side, they are selling shares to buy Bitcoin. They are the 5 largest holders. For the record, MicroStrategy is the first. Marathon Digital Holdings is the second, it's the miner Marathon, one of the largest miners in the world. One is the third, it's a kind of merger with Taser and others who want to create a kind of MicroStrategy together. Then Bitcoin Standard Treasury & Company is the fourth, and Metaplanet is the fifth.
And to finish, we have here Deutsche Bank, to end on a positive note, which stated yesterday that Bitcoin is on its way to joining gold as a recognized reserve asset in banks over the decades. It tells us that the US dollar represents 57% of global reserves, but signs of diversification are appearing. Normal, investors, banks have less confidence, less confidence in the dollar, for example, China is selling a lot of US Treasury bonds. Last year, they sold 57 billion US Treasury bonds, basically saying, "Here, here, we want less of your Treasury bonds." Well, okay, you have the BRICS behind it, but already de-dollarization, well, we can talk about that, but it's very weak. We need the dollar, everything revolves around the dollar. However, to say, well, the dollar is taking a hit, Trump would like to see his dollar devalued even more. So we might diversify a bit more, you see. Well, so I'm not saying, "Oh my God, they're all going to sell their dollars and do something else." No, no, but selling a bit of dollars to do something else isn't unreasonable.
So Deutsche Bank asserts that Bitcoin and gold will continue to coexist as hedges against political risk influence. And clearly, I completely agree with that, and it's logical. Fiat currencies are currencies that are increasingly printed, currencies that lose value. Over time, all currencies in the world lose value. Take the strongest currencies, for example, take the dollar, well, a dollar 100 years ago, it had much more purchasing power than now. The euro is the same, everything is falling in purchasing power, all currencies are devaluing, and to fight against this devaluation, which is accelerating in my opinion, you need to have safe-haven assets that don't devalue, like gold, like Bitcoin, which don't devalue.
Well, after that, there's volatility on Bitcoin. Even Bitcoin isn't inflationary, it's deflationary. Well, so, the volatility of Bitcoin, which has long been an obstacle, well, as Bitcoin's volatility has decreased over the last 30 days, volatility has hit historical lows. So we see it, the bull run is not a bull run. We went from 16,000 to 124,000, but you see, it's not parabolic, it's not crazy. And I think this will be the same in the coming years, perhaps more and more as Bitcoin becomes more capitalized, as more and more institutions buy Bitcoin, Bitcoin wants to become more and more stable, but that's what I think is necessary for global adoption.
So to conclude, Deutsche Bank says that Bitcoin adoption will follow a similar path to gold, moving from skepticism to widespread acceptance, with regulation, macro trends, and time paving the way. And personally, I completely agree. You'll tell me if you agree or not.
Well friends, this little news video, we'll keep in touch on social media today. I'll also send you some short chain analyses to see where we are with the correction. I send you kisses and I'll talk to you later. Bye bye. [Music]