Transcription
As Bitcoin falls, I've got the key technical analysis that may pinpoint the lowest pullback here that we're going to see where Bitcoin will bottom out before making a major move up. And I'll show you how in past cycles this worked beautifully to predict the low on Bitcoin. In addition, we'll cover the recent price action and take a look at where we're headed in the near term. So, we'll focus on near-term as well as the longer-term view on this cycle move to the downside.
My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. And always remember folks, verified.com is all about looking at charts and probabilities with no BS, no narratives, no hype. It just is what it is.
All right, let's get into the charts here on Bitcoin. The daily chart on Bitcoin. You can see we started to inch a little bit lower yesterday. Getting a nice pop today as buyers are reemerging. One thing that we've clearly seen is that the low end of the bare flag continues to hold strong. And so if we bring this up here, you can see that again we have this little bit of a parallel that price is trading in. Right? We started down here with the recent low back in November or on November 21st. We kind of made our move up to the high end. Then we pulled back, then back to the high end, pulled back, back to the high end, now back to the low end. And we've been hammering on this level. We even, you could argue, closed a hair below this. But again, did we ever confirm? And the answer is you can't confirm until the next day. And clearly, we're surging to the upside as of now. So listen, if we do confirm below this, then all of a sudden you're looking at an $80,000 likely target. That would be the high probability scenario once we confirm. And if that breaks, then you have to be looking at the bigger zone down here of 69 to 74,000.
All right. Now, there's something about this zone that I have to reveal to you guys that again when I saw it, it was a aha moment and something that again could predict the low on this cycle of Bitcoin. Now, let's be fair and again, listen, there's a lot of people kind of saying, "Oh, the four-year cycle doesn't work. Oh, that's fine, and I get that." Um the only counter I would have to that is that you know if you go back to previous periods like let's say back to 2022, 2023, 2024 then a lot of those same people were screaming that the four-year cycle is why we were going to go up. But now I've seen a lot of those same people commenting and saying oh well, there's no four-year cycle right and it's like well, you can't have it both ways. To be honest, I'm not a big believer in the four-year cycle, but what we do know is that price tends, and we've seen this, and this is where the data and the charts are truth. We have to go by what the data is showing us. And if we look at this chart, we have December, the high was in December of 2017. Then you had the second high in November 2021. Okay? And then so far, the all-time high on Bitcoin is October 2025. Now, the people again that are overleveraged and just hinging on every move on Bitcoin will say, "Oh, well, now the four-year cycle doesn't pan out or it's not real because they don't want price to go down." That's okay. I get that. I get the overleveraged angle to it. But again, remember, we're all about charts here and data. And right now, this is to be a precise. The difference here is 3 years and 11 months. Three years and 11 months, right? So, there is a four-year essentially just under a four-year cycle. And let's be fair, this is a pretty big pullback in Bitcoin where now if we look at the charts from peak to trough, how much has Bitcoin declined uh from peak to trough? 36%. If it breaks this low and goes to my downside target, you're at about 45%.
Now, I'm a believer that you'll hear a lot of people say, "Oh, well, every decline on Bitcoin in the bare market is 75, 80%." Okay, I don't I'm not buying that. And I'll tell you why. Yes, in the past couple cycles that's been true, but remember the amount of upside is is very specific here. We're seeing in the past cycles we saw hundreds if not thousands of percent upside in Bitcoin versus in the recent cycle, how much higher did we go than our previous cycle. And we could do that math very easily, right? And so if we do that and we go here to our no our 2021 cycle, we only went up 82% above the previous cycle. Okay. Now, if you go to 2017, what did we go up? We went up 260%. And my thesis here is that the pullback on Bitcoin is directly proportional to how high it goes, which makes a lot of sense, right? If you were to pull a rubber band slightly tight and let it go, it's going to snap back a little bit. If you pull a rubber band really tight, like thousand of percent tight as if as if Bitcoin's going up that, it's going to snap back way more. Okay? So, it's proportional to the upside that you see. And so, in theory, we could make a case that Bitcoin probably won't pull back 75 to 80% this cycle because you didn't have that much upside. So, if you think about it, right, and we look at back at the chart again, we saw a 250% move up from the prior 2007 high to the 2021 high. Yet, if we go over here from the 2121 high to this high, it was only 81%. So, it's about onethird of the move up that we saw prior, right? And and I think that's important because for us that means that if you're a bull on Bitcoin, you're not going to get the same draw down, which is good, right? And it makes also sense if you think logically because institutional money is now much more involved. And just like it's very rare to see something bigger than 20 or 30% draw down in the stock market. It makes sense that a Bitcoin which is more volatile maybe it only seems a sees a 35 to 45 or 50% draw down in Bitcoin for this cycle.
All right, so think about that. Now we're going to take it a step further where it really will blow your mind. So what we do is we take the 2017 high here and we put a trend line right through there. And what we can see is in the past cycle there was something that we saw occur. We had a move above the prior high of 2017, a peak, a pullback, a peak, and then we came back to the cycle, prior cycle high. Okay. So now what I want to draw your attention to is this low which came pretty close to this level but didn't. Then we had the second move and then we did come back. Well, look at what we have here. If we go over to our bull market move from here and we're going to put a line now in from this level here. Okay. So again, look at the similarities. We came up, we kind of chopped, then we busted out. We had a pullback that didn't reach the psych the prior cycle high, a higher high, and then we did go back to this cycle high from 2017. Well, here we had consolidated, we broke out, and look at what happened. We broke out. We came back. We didn't get back to the cycle level just like over here. Then we went up. We tagged our cycle high. So where would the likely pull back be? Back to the prior cycle high at 69,000.
Okay. Now listen over here. Let's call a spade a spade. It did get slightly below because remember um investors are emotional creatures. We are all emotional and so fear is going to drive it a little bit below. But in in all fairness, I mean it wasn't it was only about you know 10, 15%, 20% lower here. If the if the law of numbers again shrinks you might only go 5% below or so. I mean you could be looking at maybe down here to about 66,000 or so. But the thesis here is that the pattern is actually repeating up, down but not to the cycle level. then a higher high and then all right breaks out from the prior cycle down but not to the level there up and back down to that level and this my friends again is what I'm revealing in this analysis which to me there is a potential that Bitcoin will only pull back to that 69 maybe slightly lower level and at at that point you're not at a 75 to 80% draw down on Bitcoin, you're only down to about a 45 maybe if it pierces maybe 50% draw down on Bitcoin. And for those of us that again are looking number one to accumulate that might be a level to start accumulating Bitcoin. Number two, if you have a a long-term hold on Bitcoin, if you're a Michael Sailor, this is really important information because he doesn't necessarily have to worry as much about a massive draw down below his average price of 75,000. Right? Because if it's only going to go, let's say say to 69 or 67, it's not the end of the world. Yeah, he's going to be down on his Bitcoin holdings, but if that's the bottom of the cycle, then that could be very important. And let's say at that point, we do start to head up for the next bull run, which again, you're not going to probably get 500% or 300%. But again, the law of large numbers of of how the market cap is of Bitcoin is going to keep it somewhat grounded. But let's say it goes to 150,000. Well, now all of a sudden, Michael Sailor is from 75 average has doubled his net worth based on his Bitcoin there. So, again, really important information here and I love revealing this to you guys. I think this is so powerful. I hope you agree. Please share this out there with friends and family if you think they'd find it interesting and we'll go from there.
As always folks, all charts and notice today it was all based on data on the charts. No BS, no hype, just a potential scenario of Bitcoin that does seem very likely based on charts and data. No BS here at Verified Investing. Have a good one, guys. Talk to you soon. Take care.