Gas Fields Attacked, Oil Surges, Post-Fed Fallout - The Order Book

Yo, yo, yo, what's up? What's good? What's happening, party people? It's your boy, Trader Man, the Neck Baron, hearkinin' Baron, harkin' the Neck. I hope everyone's doing good. We're back with another episode of the Order Books, guys. I hope everyone's ready to talk more about the situation at hand because every day, as we continue to monitor the situation, the situation continues to evolve. So, we continue to monitor this ever-evolving situation. So, we got a great episode for you guys today. Very excited.

Um, obviously, as you guys know, if you're new here, this is the new stream format. We talk about charts, we talk about some news, some prediction market stuff. It's been a lot of fun. Uh, and this is going to be uh a lot of fun uh as we discuss what's going on with Bitcoin and crypto. Are we fading back into the range? What's going on with oil? What's going on with the war in Iran? Because I know you guys are looking for a professional opinion. That's why you come to me, obviously. So, happy to share that with you all. But welcome back.

Um, as always, guys, if you want to support me, you want to support the show, easiest thing to do is click the links, go to the description video, sign up for Kraken, click the Poly Market link, like, share, retweet, tell me I'm handsome, all that fun stuff. Otherwise, guys, let's get into it.

So, we're going to start with some charts. After that, uh, I will open up the door to some questions, some chart requests. Cody, my man, as always, is monitoring the chat. So, if there's anything that comes up, uh, that he deems to be super relevant, super important, um, I'll do my best to take a look, uh, and he'll highlight it for me. So, let's get into the chart and let's get [ __ ] shellacking clacking.

Audio feedback. I don't know if I believe you. I'll let Cody tell me if audio feedback is a thing. Uh, let's get to the chart here. Boom.

Okay. So, we've been observing the situation on Bitcoin, okay, for some time now. And what have we been watching primarily, right? I've been talking about the similarities between these consolidations, right? And how we want to see this consolidation that we're in not play out like the last one. Quite simple, right? We want to see this thing hold the breakout. What we don't want to see is what it's kind of trying to do right now, which is look like it's just going to fall back inside. Now, I'm willing to be optimistic and to give this an opportunity to flip bullish, but as it stands right now, we've fallen back within the range. Okay? And we're kind of coming to test that key trend line here, right? Like, it's got to hold here. Has to, has to, has to. And really, what it has to do is get above here and then make a higher high, right? And then we can see it go into 80. But it's got to kind of hold basically right where it is right now. And I think it can. I'm willing to be optimistic because if it doesn't, all of a sudden we have a weekly SFP here just like we did at the top here. Weekly SFP, weekly SFP. And if you go down to the H12, just like this, right, you're going to have your breaker, your structure break, your retest. That's your short, right? Well, guess what? If this weekly SFP locks in, you're going to have a break and retest of a breaker and it's going to look the exact same. And I posted this on Twitter yesterday, right? I posted this on Twitter yesterday because it's very similar what we're seeing from a chart perspective here. Weekly SFP, break structure, retest the downside. Weekly SFP, break structure, retest on the downside. That's not what we want to see uh if this thing is going to continue higher.

So, we really want to see if we're bulls because I want to be a bull. I don't want to be a gay bear. I don't think anyone chooses to be a gay bear. I think you're you're born a gay bear. And that's okay. That's okay. But I'm not a gay bear. Okay? I'm an optimist. I'm an optimist. I was born that way. So, I'm going to give the bulls a chance to save this thing. And what does saving this thing look like? It means reclaiming the range high around 71,500 and ultimately pushing up towards 80. I still think that lower high here, maybe higher. Even if we get this bullish outcome, again, I posted this on Twitter earlier, Telegram as well, I still think that the outcome is something like this. Okay? That's still my my my base case is any sort of bounce here is into a lower high, but I'm willing to let the bulls try and push it up into that lower high because as it looks right now, this looks like this. This and the lower high might already be in. We might already be cooked. But what I'm kind of hoping for is that we're actually getting something more like this where we get like, you know, one, two, three drives to the high and then it dies. That's kind of what I'm hoping we get here, right? One, two, and then a third drive and that's the one. Or even here, one, two, three. You don't want this to be done already. We don't want this to be done already. That would be very lame. Um, if if that was this was the lower high. But the similarities in terms of the weekly sweep, the 12-hour structure break, the fallen back within the range, it's all there. Okay? So, if you're a fractal person, this fractal sure looking a lot like the last [ __ ] thing, right? So, what we really want to see is almost the inverse of this low, lower low, lowest low, reversal, high, higher high, highest high, reversal. Um, so I think this is my prognosis for now. Maybe it doesn't go that high. Maybe it only goes to 80. Um, but if it loses this red line and it fails to reclaim 71,500, I think we might be cooked and this might just be ready to roll over from here. So, I'm hoping that that's not the case. Technically, the weekly setup is not triggered until the weekly closes as an SFP. It has not happened yet. That will not happen until Sunday. Now is only Thursday. Okay.

So, do I have another tab open? I don't think so. I don't have audio playing from anywhere else, guys. So, you'll have to let me know. I apologize if it's if it's echoey, but so, let's see, guys. I think part of my thesis for Bitcoin having one more leg in it actually hinges upon the idea here that the S&P is due for a bounce. So, as you guys know, we shorted the S&P 500 over $6,900 or whatever the unit of metric this is. I don't actually [ __ ] care. Um, $6,900 was our entry. 7050 was our stop loss. Okay. So, um, um, is that um is that mean we're safe? For sure. Right. Does that mean that we're we're we're for sure comfy in this forever? No. But I feel pretty good about it. Right. We had the weekly breakdown. We've now had multiple three days broken, dailies broken, the H12's broken. So, we have all these high time frame breakdowns. We shorted near the top with a really tight stop. I'm letting this thing ride or die. Even if this gives us a face ripper here, I'm willing to hold this thing back to entry. I'm willing to hold this to stop out. Okay. So, I would rather have the hero play. Um, I'd rather have the hero play and uh a and and hold it as long as I can as opposed to close early and um, you know, end up having shorted the top and not getting the glory, right? Not getting the spoils, not getting the clout because that's what it's all about at the end of the day. It's all about the clout.

So, I do think that the S&P 500 here is due for a bit of a bounce. It's been this chop, slow grind down. I was one of the only people on Twitter talking about the market rolling over here. Okay? Everyone was saying, "Chop City is going to continue forever. All these people who keep shorting are going to be wrong." We waited until the breakdown occurred. That gave us the confirmation. We knew the breakdown was coming. We were right. Lot of people on my timeline today, this morning, I open up. I'm so bearish on stocks right now. Stocks look so bad. Floodgates are about to open. To me, from both a daily cycle perspective, from a sentiment perspective, and from the chart itself, this is gearing up for a complacency bounce. So you can already see we've got a sweep here right on the downside. Maybe that holds, right? We got rate, no rate cuts. So, no change in rates. We'll talk about this a little later, but the Fed bought $8 billion. A little bit of liquidity injected into the market. People are going to now use that as a bullish narrative. Oh my god, the Fed is buying, even though that's what they're supposed to do. Um, they're going to they're going to use as a bullish narrative. To me, it's this is lining up for a complacency bounce where if we get a bounce like this, uh, this will be perfect [ __ ] lower high opportunity and we're already in the short. So, I'm very comfy about this, but I do think that this is due for a low here soon. Um, you don't need to try and guess where it is. What will happen is it will break out of this downtrending structure. So, you want to know when this is going to get that relief bounce? When it breaks above this downtrending structure, that's going to give us a nice relief bounce. And then we're going to look for this to make a lower high and continued weakness as we get deeper into the year, entering Q2 because the end of Q1 of 2026 is in 12 days. So all those goals you had for 2026 that we talked about in private, you discussed with me all of your goals, I will get a girlfriend, right? That's what you told me. Said, "I will do this. I will do that. I'm going to go to the gym. I'm going to do that." You should be a quarter of the way through your goals within the next 12 days or you're quite literally getting left behind. All right? So, you need to lock the [ __ ] in. Anon.

Um, so I think complacency bounce on stocks would line up very well with Bitcoin getting one more move to the upside. Doesn't have to happen. Bulls have some work to do. The ball is in their court. All right. So that's the game plan I have here for Bitcoin. Short-term, long-term, long-term plan hasn't changed. Short-term, I've given you kind of my thought process here. I am not in uh I'm not looking to trade this. I'm not longing here. If anything, I'm much more interested in shorting uh wherever this bounce goes. I believe the trend is to the downside. So, when the market sinks up and I look think it's ready for its next leg down, that's when I'll look to take my long. I was interested in longs down here. As we get higher into this retrace, I'm a lot more interested in shorting. So, I'm sitting on my hands chilling. I'm not going to let people on the timeline, news or anything, FUD me out. I'm just going to trade the chart because when I trade the chart, I trade really good. When I start letting other people's opinions on the timeline, macro shake get into my head, I don't lock in. Uh that's when I make mistakes. So, we're gonna have to wait and see. We're gonna have to wait and see. But if they cannot reclaim the range high here and the weekly closes as an SFP, the high is already likely in and we're probably making new lows below 60. But let's remain cautiously optimistic that we can maybe get one more push here fueled by a complacency bounce on the S&P 500. Okay, guys.

So, those are the two most important charts that I wanted to cover today. Bitcoin and S&P. We're going to discuss gold a little bit later on. We're going to discuss crude a little bit later on. So, before I get into some other stuff, I'll take a couple of quick um a couple of quick uh suggestions from the chat. If there's coins you want to see, please don't ask me to look at stuff that we just looked at two days ago. Like, not nothing's really changed on Hyperlid. Okay? Hype looks the exact same. It's retesting the exact level that I talked about last stream. Remember we drew this? I said, "Hey, it should hold this retest and push to those highs. If it's bullish, Bitcoin needs to continue to go up for that to happen." Okay? Here we are. Right? We get back below here, it's probably cooked. Okay? So, I give you the levels. I tell you where to look. You should be marking these out on your chart or at least doing your own levels on your charts, right? That's more important than my levels and then tracking them as we go. So, we're not looking at you don't need to look at these charts every day, right? Some of these charts I'm doing this analysis. This hyperliquid level is a three-day level. Okay? So, you don't need to look at this five times a day if you're trading this level like we are. You can look at it once a day and see, okay, nothing's changed. Okay, now it's at the level. Let's see if it holds. If you're bullish, right, on Bitcoin, if you think Bitcoin is going to go to 80K, you probably want to look to start longing hype right now and maybe a little bit deeper into here, right? And you want to target like up into here. You could have a tighter stop below there. I think below that's pretty comfy. Maybe you get a bit of a better entry. But regardless, like if you're bullish on the market, hype is retesting demand. If you think Bitcoin's got one more leg in it, there's a potential trade idea here that you can take. Right? So, I'm trying to lay these options out for you guys. Always not just giving you the levels, but giving you the invalidations, right? Giving you the thought process, the reasoning. I'm trying to teach you [ __ ] to fish. I've been making fisherman for a great many years now and I'm trying to do that with y'all. I'm trying to teach you to fish so you can go on your charts and find these trades yourself. Okay.

All right. We've got some suggestions coming in here. Thank you, Cody. Tesla for short. Sure. Let's look at Tesla. So, I talked about this chart I think last stream or maybe two streams ago. I was hoping we would get some sort of bounce on Tesla to short. I still kind of think that that's the case. Like I I I can't short here. And in line with my thought process that equities are due for a little bit of a complacency bounce. I think this is still kind of the general structure that I'm looking for on Tesla. I'm looking for some sort of relief, right? Right? It's got a break above this downtrending structure. Then I'm looking for a bounce and then I'm looking to short that bounce towards lows. So that's that's kind of what we're looking for on Tesla here. We want to see it break this downtrend line and then we want to short the bounce. And I think the bounce could go up into 450 to 470 area. So that's what I'm looking at on Tesla. Okay.

ZRO for the unlock. Let's take a look. Friend of mine is telling me I need to buy a bunch of ZRO. He said it's going to a big number. So, I'll be I'll be unbelievably honest here, guys. I don't know anything about the ZRO unlock. So, you're going to have to tell me. Okay? Okay, you're going to have to tell me the details of the unlock. I can I only look at the chart. I am not a big altcoin guy. I don't really look at altcoins that much. So, uh if there's something that I should be aware of on the unlock side, by all means, let me know. But it's not something I personally track at all or do I care. I think um, you know, that's your level right there, 175, right? Maybe you maybe we finesse it a little lower, 160. But like this is kind of your demand zone that I think you would want to see price hold above on any sort of retest and then you get that kind of nice, you know, low lower low higher low structure. So if this pulls back more, I think you'd want to see it hold there. Or just go up from here. But that would be kind of what I'm looking at levels wise, what I would like to see hold and maintain. Uh, you know, this is potentially forming some sort of short-term bottom. Uh, that's what I would want to see.

Guys, while we're here, while Cody's looking for some more suggestions, please follow the Order Book Show. I want 2,000 followers by the end of this episode. That's 30 people. There is over 250 just on YouTube watching. There's a bunch on Twitter. There's a handful over on Kick. Let's get over 2K here on the Order Book, please. Uh, once we get to 5K on this page, I'll do a giveaway. All you got to do is [ __ ] hit follow. You will be eligible for the giveaway. All right.

Thread Guy ended. So now we're here. See, the thing is is I don't think me and Thread Guy show is competing. It's a little bit different, right? He's current events. He's topical. He's interviewing people. I'm a little bit more in the charts. You know what I mean? But it's a nice little rhythm. Thread guy to me. Stay inside all day. Why even go outside? Why even go outside?

Okay, next up we got Ono here. Ono equals one condo. You guys remember that? Ono equals condo. Well, now if you bought no condo, you bought, your condo is gondo, right? See what I did there? Pretty funny if I do say so myself. Um, looks horrible. Terrible. What an ugly chart. What a shitty coin. Wouldn't be surprised if this never sees all-time high ever again. Um, so what else do you want to know? Like lots of these coins that look like this, they had their their their cycle. Not saying that this can't have a crazy face-melting rally, but the vast majority of coins that were new in this most like if you're new to crypto, a lot of the altcoins that you got to know and started trading and fell in love with this last cycle, the vast majority of those coins will never see all-time high again. Ever. The vast majority of the coins that you got comfortable trading that you might have a bag of will never see all-time high again. Okay. So, that's something you're just going to have to accept. Um, Ono very well could be one of those coins. The chart looks shitty. Now, it doesn't mean it can't bounce. It doesn't mean that we couldn't be heading into a period of um, you know, alts getting ready to bounce, but if you look at this structurally, this structure is no different than the structure on Solana, right? But which of these two charts looks more bullish? I'd argue Soul is a little bit more bullish. It put in a higher high here, right? Above the range high where this is still kind of technically within the range. What about ETH? Right? What looks better, Ono or ETH? Like I would say ETH. So I'm not saying that this can't go up. Maybe this is lagging. I don't know. Um, but if you're trying to pick what's the fastest horse out of the bottom, I think you're much better off betting on strength than betting on whether or not something's either weak or lagging, right? Because there's two choices. There's there's a few options, right? Something's either strong, right? It's just strong. There's going to be coins that are lagging. And then there's going to be coins that are just weak. The problem is is you have to determine is it lagging or is it weak. So you long because you think you think Ono is lagging. But then it turns out it's just weak. And then when the whole market rolls over, it never pumped as high as the other coins. Whereas if you would have just bet on strength, you would have made more money. You would have been better off. So I'm not saying can't go up. The structure looks the exact same as the structure on ETH, on Bitcoin, on Solana. It's just arguably weaker. Like, this is just an arguably weaker chart than this one. This one's already broken out and it's retesting the range high. This one is dead smack in the middle of the range. Okay? So these are the types of questions you need to be

Hold on. What was that? You remember the Magic School Bus? How old are you guys? I'm 41. I remember the Magic School Bus. I don't know if you remember the Magic School Bus, but I do. Okay. The Magic School Bus was elite. It was elite. Okay. And Miss Frizzle would have these wacky, you know, adventures that she took these students on. Probably highly, highly unsafe and against the rules, but that's okay. Because it was Miss Frizzle and we [ __ ] with Miss Frizzle heavy, heavy. We [ __ ] with Miss Frizzle heavy. Okay.

So, we're gonna have a very quick lesson here from Professor Maine. Very quick lesson here from Professor Maine. So I'm old. I'm old as [ __ ]. I don't really trade altcoins. I like to trade Bitcoin. I like to trade ETH and Solana. It's pretty much it. That being said, if you are going to long an altcoin, okay, you're not just longing this, okay? This is not the only chart you need to look at because this chart might be bullish. Okay? But what about this? What about this? If your coin is on Solana, what about this? You need to be considering all of these pairs when you're longing an altcoin. The reason being is let's assume you are looking at Ono and let's let's speak let's assume for a second that Ono is actually bullish. Okay. So if Ono is actually bullish, you go, "Okay, well I want to long." One Ono, one condo. So I'm going to long. But then you go look at Ono versus BTC is sideways. Okay. Right. It's going up here. I have a nice setup. But then Ono versus ETH is bearish. Does that mean that you cannot make money on? So let's assume this is the Ono chart. It does this. But this is what Ono is doing versus USD. This is Ono USD here. Okay. Ono BTC, right? Is going like this sideways. What is Ono ETH doing? Right. If Ono ETH is bearish, maybe it's going like this. So, what does that mean that ETHUSD is likely doing? It looks like OnoUSD, but it's more bullish. So, it's not that you couldn't have made money on Ono, it's that you would have made more money just longing the denominator. Okay? So, anytime you want to long an altcoin, I want you to ask yourself a few things. Question number one, okay, is the chart bullish? Okay, is the chart itself bullish? Then I want you to look at cross market analysis. I almost just left it to say anal because I'm a child. Okay. And then I want you to look at where's the setup like clean setup. Is it clean? Okay. These are the questions you should be asking yourself because is the chart bullish? Ono was bullish. Cross market analysis. I would say it failed. ETH is clearly more bullish. Right? Is there a clean setup on? I would say no. It's in the middle of the range. ETH is got a very clear breakout and retest. So, I'm not saying that you can't make money longing Ono. But if you ask yourself these questions and you do the cross market analysis, what you're going to get yourself into is oftentimes the higher beta play. What coin goes up the most on any given day? When the market pumped the other day, what was the biggest gainer? Fartcoin, hype, etc. If I look at Fartcoin versus Soul from the day of the pump, it's outperforming Soul. So when you look at Fartcoin USD versus SoulUSD, the Fartcoin chart ended up being more bullish. So you're going to want to do this cross market analysis. You're going to want to obviously know if it's bullish and then you're going to want to go at the chart that has the cleanest setup. It's not always about capturing the biggest percent gainer. Maybe the setup Ono is just cleaner and you can get a tighter risk-reward. But if you want to know how people get into the fastest horse, how did they how did they know to long this coin instead of this one? The altcoin that I longed went up 5%. The one that Maine longed went up 15%. Because they're doing this. If you're doing these things, right, you're going to be able to find that fastest horse out of the bottom. You're going to find that cleaner setup. You're gonna know if you're better off holding Ono instead of just ETH or instead of just Bitcoin or instead of just Soul. Okay? So, I have an entire video on YouTube about this called Cross Market Analysis for Altcoins. And what I go into is that not only is this important for alts, this is important for any asset that you're looking at because all you have here is a numerator and a denominator. Okay? So if you have ETH versus BTC, okay, go back to grade five math. What makes a fraction go up or down? Right? So if the denominator is going up and the numerator is going sideways or down or even it's going up but not up as much as the denominator, this fraction is going to go down. So when we apply that to an altcoin, if ETH BTC is downtrending, that means that Bitcoin is stronger than ETH. So you can use this exact same logic for all of your altcoins. Why would I long Ono if ETH is in a downtrend? I'm better off longing ETH. It's stronger. Okay? So these are the types of things. Again, I have an entire video on this on YouTube. These are the types of things you need to be doing, the types of questions you need to be asking yourself before you start longing random altcoins just because you know you saw it on your timeline and someone's saying it's lagging blah blah blah. Ask those questions. Do that cross market analysis. It's going to vastly improve your trading and your asset selection. So if we look at Ono ETH again and you could you can do this on USD then you press this little calculator and then you hit divided by ETHUSD because the USD is both in the numerator and the denominator they cancel out, right? This is basic math. Okay. What coin is better to hold, Ono or ETH? I would venture to say Ono has been getting smoked by ETH. Right. What about Ono versus Solana? Again, Ono's been getting smoked. Any coins, right? You want to know how people they say, "Okay, well the gold silver ratio or what about S&P versus Bitcoin?" Well, you can literally go US 500, right? Divided by Bitcoin USD and you can now do analysis saying, "Well, hey, hold on. The S&P 500's been kicking our ass, but maybe there's a maybe this is starting to turn around here, right? Maybe this is starting to turn around here. You don't know, right? But like on the whole, right, Bitcoin smashes the S&P 500, but there's periods of time where the S&P 500 is outperformed Bitcoin. Like here, this is the Bitcoin bare market. Okay? So, this is obviously a much more complex pair that I'm showing you here, but you can do this for any coin, any altcoin. You need to be doing this because I'm not going to do it for you because I don't really give a [ __ ] about altcoins. I'm probably never going to take a trade on Ono. Can confidently say that. But if you want to long this chart, you need to give me a reason why longing this is better than just longing this. Is the setup cleaner? Is it outperforming? Is it bullish on its own? All right. I know that was a rant and it was completely off topic and I'm sorry. But I'm passionate about teaching.

I mean, are you down that bad that much that you got to be live streaming daily? Yeah, dude. I'm down horrendous, bro. I'm down horrendous. Maybe I just like streaming, dude. Have you ever considered that? Um, but yeah. No, I'm down so bad, bro. Please give me money. Give me a lot of money. Please, please give me more money. Man, we see the big chrome logo on the back. You can sit down again, buddy. Now, that is funny. I am not 50 yet. Okay. Once I'm over 45, no more chrome. I promise. Hey, man. How do I set my stop losses so they don't get keep getting hit? You probably got to do them better. Set them better, right? Stop getting stopped out. You got to set better stop losses. Um, I don't know, bro. So, if you're constantly getting stopped out, you got to go and look at your trades and see what you might be doing wrong. Are you actually setting your stop at a point where the trade idea is wrong and you keep getting stopped out? Then guess what? Your trade ideas are just wrong. But if you're setting your stop loss somewhere that gives you good risk-reward and then like there's a difference between getting stopped out like this, okay, and getting st so like this. versus this, right? This is probably you were just wrong, right? Your stop was below where you're trading. That's just wrong. Maybe here your stop loss actually should have been down here, but you put it here because it gave you better risk-reward, right? So that's what you got to be asking yourself, is your stop actually going where the trade idea is invalidated? And if that's true, okay, then that just simply means that your [ __ ] trade was wrong, man. Simple as that.

All right, guys. Um, 11 more followers. Who's going to be number 2,000? Okay, so we did Ono. I'm going to do a couple more because that rant took up a lot of time. We'll look at DYX here. Some people asked. So, I have DYX's being in this big ass [ __ ] range. Like, we've been dialed on the Dixie for so long. Okay? So, we have this yearly order block here where price is bouncing. We took out last year's low. Go down to the monthly. We have a monthly SFP. Okay? Monthly SFP into the yearly order block. And now we're tapping back in this multi-year range. If the dollar reclaims this, I don't see how it doesn't go to there. Okay? So, the dollar, it's at resistance here locally, low time frame. There's some resistance here. To retesting the range low, but this is a monthly sweep below last year's low into a yearly order block here. And we've had one, two, three tests of this level. If we reclaim the range low on the Dixie, I think that uh we're in for a big bounce on the US dollar. So, that is my view on the Dixie. Okay.

Let's look at Fartcoin. Speaking of farts, you stinky [ __ ]. Okay. So, this is one of the big gainers the other day during that pump, right? We had, look at this day here. Fartcoin went up, what is this? 24% from the low here, March 8th to that high, 50% move. What do you think Fart versus Soul looks like? Right? Oh, is this thing bullish? Did this thing pump? Did Fartcoin outperform Solana? Yeah. So, what was the better long? Right. This thing was bullish. This thing went up. It put in a big higher low here. Had a big move up against Soul. So, if you're looking at SoulUSD and FartcoinUSD, how come when the market went up, Fartcoin pumped more? This is why, right? So, you need to be looking at these types of things. But yeah, Fartcoin, nice little pump overall. Still, you know, just down horrendously. I think you have a pretty nice level right here like right around there. 23 cents, maybe a little lower, right? Like 22. Get above there. I think it starts to look interesting like very interesting because then you also are flipping this breaker here. So, then that becomes a nice like looking deviation and this thing could actually have some decent upside but for now you got to be careful that this isn't just some bearish retest. Okay.

All right, we'll do a couple more here. We're going to look at the Reddit stock and then I'll I'll ask Cody to grab one more coin and then we're going to move on because I think we're 40 minutes into this [ __ ] already. Oh, they're not going to be over here. Reddit stock. I can't say I've looked at this really before. So, we've got this like this is super high time frame demand. That's your monthly order block there. Obviously, a huge selloff here. 50 plus% down from the highs. I don't know. It's like it's it's it's floating above resist support here. I don't know if I would confirm that the low is in yet. Like maybe we have one more spike down here, but it could be interesting. If this consolidation continues, I think what you look for is either one more run of the lows. Why? Right? Or wait for the breakout. If it breaks out of this range, I think that's a pretty compelling long because that's like a big high time frame. That's a monthly low. So yeah, you know, something to add to the watch list for sure. Get above 153. Looks interesting. Or sweep out 127 one more time and then get long on the reclaim.

Hot dog shot says, "I'm loving the daily videos." See, this is the attitude. This is the type of energy I need. We got Numbers Guy here. Numbers Man One. He's the numbers man and he's the first one. Um, he thinks I'm down bad because I'm streaming all day. Maybe I like doing the videos. Maybe I like helping people. Have you ever considered that? Maybe me streaming all day also helps my business out. Breakout or you should go buy an account. Use code main. Maybe, just maybe.

Um, Cow. Like honestly, I cannot wait. Okay? So here's one that looked, you know, I think I we talked about this must have a few streams ago. Way more bullish than like are you longing Ono or are you longing Tao? What does TA BTC look like? No surprise to anyone. Super bullish breakout here, right? Big consolidation here. And then what is this on the three-day? That's a low high lower low break in structure. So this is looking really good versus Bitcoin. Makes a lot of sense why this was one of the fastest horses out of the bottom. And if you look at Tao divided by Ono USDT, what do you think this chart looks like? Bullish as [ __ ] right? The numerator is smoking the denominator. So, I keep I hate to keep picking Ono, but this is what I'm saying. You have to be looking at these types of things. How come someone's looking to long Ono? The person who long Tao caught, you know, a 50% move, 70% move while Ono is still trading down here. So, is Ono lagging or is it just potentially weak? Doing some of that stuff that I covered over there on the whiteboard will help you make that determination. What up, Pierre? How you doing, my G? Shout out to Pierre, fellow Haven homie. Make sure you go join the Haven link on my website, tradermain.com.

All right, guys. Um, I think that's going to wrap it for the chart session over here. We're going to cover more charts when we get to the whiteboard. We're going to look at gold. We're going to look at oil. Okay? And depending on how long we are in there, there'll be some more stuff going on over there. But I quickly want to go over some news real quick. Shout out to Kraken. As you guys know, Numbers Guy, he might think I'm down bad, but back in September, Kraken bought my entire company. Numbers Guy One. Okay? They bought my company. It's actually pretty awesome. So, streaming for Kraken is good for the business. You know what I mean? So, maybe that's part of the reason why I'm doing it. Uh, but yeah, shout out to Kraken for buying my company and making sure I'm not down bad like Numbers Guy One seems to think. Or maybe I am down bad. Maybe I have no money at all. Who knows? Um, but shout out to them for supporting me, supporting your boy. You want to help the show out, you want to help me out, click the Kraken link below. They're giving away one Bitcoin. You could become a whole coiner in this Kraken sweepstakes. They're giving away one Bitcoin to celebrate the 20 millionth BTC being mined. Giving away one full Bitcoin. Second place, there'll be five winners, 10K each. Third place is a 100 bucks. They're going to give away a hundred winners there. Every dollar you trade on Kraken is one entry into the sweepstakes. So, you could in theory trade $1 of volume and be entered in a sweepstakes with one entry to win an entire Bitcoin. Crazier things have happened. So, shout out to Kraken. Thanks for supporting your boy. Thanks for supporting the stream.

Let's get into some news, guys. Let's get into some [ __ ] news here. Okay. So, there's a lot of situation monitoring going on, guys. First of all, shout out to the Hyperliquid team. Okay? The S&P 500 is now live. This is the first official perpetual future on Hyperliquid. So, trader um what's his name? Shokun. Trader XYZ set the benchmark here, right? S&P 500 is now available on Hyperliquid. As we know from hit three, things like oil, things like gold have been crushing in terms of volume on Hyperliquid. Well, now the S&P's first official perpetual futures is now available on Hyperliquid. So, this is just good for the industry as a whole. Whether you're a hype bull or you're not a hype bull, um, it doesn't really matter. This is the type of news you want to see. As someone who is bullish on crypto in general, these perps are making their way on-chain 24/7 365 tradable. We want more and more people trading on-chain, using crypto every day. That's one of the best use cases in my opinion, Hyperliquid for crypto for a much larger audience, okay, than just um than just uh all the other [ __ ] that we have like being able to get traded traders who maybe want to speculate on the weekend. Maybe they don't want to deal with the regular broker [ __ ]. They want to self-custody their funds, have access to gold, to uh to oil, to the S&P 500, all on-chain. So, shout out to the Hyperliquid team. This is just bullish in general for crypto. I don't know how you can hate on this. I think this is awesome news. As Arthur might say, 150 incoming. Yachtsy, Yachtsy, he says the billionaire.

Now, guys, I don't know if Poly Market, who sent me this lovely sign, by the way, but they forgot to um they forgot to send me the uh you can't even see my face. They sent me this lovely sign, but they forgot to uh send me a plug. So, I have the Poly Market sign. They forgot to send me a plug. I'm going to have to buy the plug, but I think they might be listening to the streams because uh it's called NATO. NEZ NATO is the company that is doing the airdrop, the DEX. Okay. Similar to Hyperliquid. Um, we were talking about monitoring the situation with the boys last stream. We're like, [ __ ] We wake up. We're monitoring the situation. Your wife comes into your office. You're sweaty, right? It's [ __ ] just Cheeto dust permeating through the air of the room. You haven't showered in days. You're in a house coat. Just gut out. You're crushing white monster. And you're monitoring the situation. Are you a bum? Are you homeless? Are you unemployed? Or maybe are you a geopolitical situation monitor? You're an armchair war expert. You're an oil and gas trader. Okay, that's what you are. You're not unemployed. You're not gross. You don't need to go outside. You're monitoring the situation as these massive macro geopolitical events are occurring and you're speculating on these events online. Okay, you have a very serious job. Don't let your wife, your girlfriend, or your family tell you otherwise. Maybe have a shower, but otherwise, we continue to monitor the situation. Poly Market is opening up the situation room. Okay. So, we talked about this last stream. Maine is like Wolf Blitzer, the situation room. Uh, they're opening up a bar where you can monitor the situation. Uh, so it's a bar, uh, where they're going to have TVs, I guess, news going on, tickers, all that stuff. It reminds me of a bar I went to, I think, in Barcelona, or it might have been Portugal, called the Stock Market Bar, where the prices of drinks are stocks and they change throughout the night. Kind of cool. Uh, but yeah, not tonight, babe. Me and the boys are monitoring the situation on the straightforuse over a few pints, right? So, like, are you going out and getting drunk with the boys and you're going to show up home at 1 in the morning smelling like cigarettes and whiskey and beer? Or were you pulling an all-nighter in the situation room where you also happen to smoke and drink? You know what I mean? It's all about framing. It's all about context. So, this is going to be very cool. I would love to go to this. Maybe have to make it happen um once it opens. Super [ __ ] cool.

Um, so Bank of America warns that the stock market lows are still ahead. So, in their latest survey of fund managers overseeing $500 billion, completely made up number, by the way, Bank of America found cash holdings at a six-month high, yet investors remain 37% overweight in equities. This is interesting because my financial advisor who works at the bank that I have money at, it's not really my financial advisor because I don't uh actually let him manage any of my money. He keeps telling me I need to buy the dip. He's like, "You got to buy the dip. The lows are in. The the the Iran situation is going to resolve itself and you're going to miss it." I'm bearish on stocks as you guys know. But it seems like I'm on the same side as Bank of America here. Is that bad? I don't know. Like, is that bad? I don't know. I genuinely don't know. But we are um we're cash heavy and it says here that retail investors are overweight in equities. So maybe that's a good sign. I don't really know. But the Bank of America doesn't think the lows are in.

Now, the Pentagon is seeking just a cool $200 billion. This is what I mean. Remember I just said those numbers are made up. These numbers aren't real. Okay? This is why Bitcoin is so important at the end of the day because the government, right, the banks cannot just inflate and debase the currency to [ __ ] zero, which is what they're doing. There's a reason your grandparents were able to buy homes for 20K, 50K on a regular ass salary and you can't buy that same house for less than like a half million dollars. The house did not change. The value of your currency devalued. It ate [ __ ]. The buying power eroded. And this kind of stuff is part of why that's happening. This quagmire that the US is in in the Middle East long term, the money that they're going to spend, it's going to cause more printing, devalue the currency even more, right? Like having $10 million was enough to retire 10 years ago because $10 million 10 years ago today is like probably $20 million. Like the rate of decay on money is [ __ ] brutal. Um, and this stuff is just going to get worse, right? Like the US debt is over $39 trillion. This number is not even comprehensible. It's completely made up. What's another $200 billion when the debt is 39 trillion? A thousand billion equals 1 trillion. They're in debt 39 trillion. To who? Right. So, I think this is all [ __ ] really, really, really [ __ ]. Um, and completely made up. And it's funny that they like put this stuff out and then taxpayers like, "I can't believe I'm funding this [ __ ] anymore." It's like, it's all made up. It's all fake. You need more Bitcoin, guys. You need more Bitcoin. Okay? You need more Bitcoin. You don't own enough because they're going to keep doing this. This is not stopping anytime soon.

Now, this is something that hits close to home for me. As you guys know, I was part of the FTX rug pull. I wasn't part of it. I was not involved. I was a victim. I'm a victim. Okay? I was a victim. And what I can tell you is like, you know, when like you get mugged or something, right? And then the police take you into the shop and you're behind the two-way mirror and they've got the perp all there and they say, "Can you point them out in the line?" Okay.

If you were to take me and say, "I need you to point out your accuser." Who were the people behind the financial assault in which occurred upon me? And I did not consent to that financial assault that I received. Okay? It was non-consensual. And you asked me to point out who the pers were. Guess what? I'm not pointing at either of these two people. Okay? They're making an FTX movie called The Altterist. And this is who they're casting. This is Sam Bankman Freed. Okay, this is not what Sam Bankman Freed looks like. And this is absolutely not what Carolyn Ellison looks like. Unless they plan on putting on some crazy prosthetics and making them look much more gross and strung out on meth. Uh, I don't know. I don't know. I don't buy it. I don't buy it. Like, this is CZ. The only thing this guy and CZ have in common is that they are both Asian. They might not even be the same type of Asian, but I just I don't buy it. I don't buy it at all. I don't like it. They're way too pretty. We need some ugly [ __ ] in here. You know what I mean? Caroline's kind of close. Who touched me? [ __ ] not this guy. If these were the two who did touched me in my no place, I might have been okay with it. Maine can see comments here. Yes, I can. Tony Bitcoin, I see your comment. Okay, so they're making a movie on this. It's like, imagine something terrible happens to you. And they're like, let's make a movie about it so we can [ __ ] profit. These people are evil and they eat babies according to the Epstein files. I don't [ __ ] know. It's just claims. It's just hearsay.

So, this um this clip got a little bit of hype over in our CT corner here, guys. Um Thread Guy said, "Traders would be more attractive to women than proathletes if they could properly articulate what they do. It's easier to get drafted to the NFL than to get hired at Jane Street out of college. There was an oil trade this past week that was more impressive than Bamab Bio's 83 points. That's not saying anything because his 83 points was not impressive. Half of them were free throws. Uh, the general public does not understand how difficult and cool trading actually it is. Not course selling flop but real PVP in the order books. Communication is the only barrier to a profitable trader is obviously the dream job."

I completely uh disagree here with my friend thread guy. I tweeted about this basically saying like I can teach you how to be um a trader. I've taught many people how to be traders. Um, I absolutely um cannot teach you how to be LeBron James. Okay? There's something like 2,000 active players in the NFL. There's only a couple hundred players in the NBA and no matter how good you are basketball, if you're not tall enough, you're not getting in. Okay? If you don't hit the genetic lottery, you're not getting in. There are a lot more profitable traders than there are professional athletes. And being a professional athlete is way [ __ ] cooler. And I don't think it has anything to do with our inability to articulate what we do. Because as much as I agree with being a profitable trader is a dream job in some senses, being a profitable trader is very boring. Anyone who has traded full-time for a living like I have. I've traded for years. Before I was doing breakout stuff like that, I had years where I was purely trading. That was the only way I made money. It's boring. It's boring. It might seem exciting. It might seem sexy. You're PvPing in the order books. Not really. It's zero sub. You're grinding out your [ __ ] infantessimal edge that over enough trades is profitable over a long period of time. And you're only taking trades that sit fit very specific criteria. And I'm not the only person who thinks this way. Many of my friends who are profitable traders, it's the same way. It's boring. And after a while, they get bored of it. They want to move on to something different. They want to use the money and the freedom that trading has provided them to do other things. They don't want to be a day trader for 40 years because it's boring. Profitable trading is actually quite boring. And women, I can say this as a married man, don't give a [ __ ] what you do. Are you able to support the family, pay the bills, do what you got to do? Are you able to lead? Right? Are you funny, interesting, entertaining? They don't really care about what your day job is. I do not bore my wife with what I do on a day-to-day. She doesn't give a [ __ ] Okay. She wants to know that when the credit card swipes, the credit card don't get declined. All right. So, I disagree here. I don't think being a day trader is cool or sexy at all. It's actually very boring. And I can articulate exactly why. And I can articulate exactly what I do as well, and it makes it even more [ __ ] boring. Um, so yeah, disagree with the take here. Love my boy Thread Guy. Um, but he's still new to the game. Okay, come find me after a couple more cycles of trading these charts and tell me if you still find it as, you know, elite PVP super fun. Uh, it loses that edge quite quickly and that's why you get into other stuff. You start businesses, you start angel investing, you start a fund, you do all sorts of different things. Uh because trading on its own in a vacuum, boring as [ __ ] I would much rather be a professional athlete. Give me Cristiano Cristiano Ronaldo's [ __ ] life making hundreds of millions of dollars playing [ __ ] soccer. Okay. Uh rather than trading.

Anyways, rant over. Um as we head over to the whiteboard, guys, we want to talk real quick about oil. We're going to talk a lot about oil and what's going on in the straight of form as we continue to monitor the situation. And uh right now guys um you know things are getting a little crazy over there. Maybe Maine was ahead of the curve. About a year ago I was emerging from the oil looking like Baron Harkinin. Okay. Look, you can't tell me that's not the same picture. Okay, very similar. So, we're gonna go over to chart number two. We're gonna start talking about um oil. We're gonna look at the oil chart. We're gonna talk a little bit about gold. And of course, if you have any questions, uh Cody will let me know. I'll do my best to answer them as we go. Tony Bitcoin keeps asking, "What time frame do you want BTC to see 7150 on the reclaim on BC for long to 80K?" I wanted it to get back above there on the daily chart or the 12-h hour at least. Uh daily chart or 12 hour at least. Okay. Right. We closed we closed back within the range on the daily. Right. So, if we want this thing to break out, we want this thing to recover, I need to see a 12-hour or a daily close back outside of the range sooner than later. Okay? So, I want to see this reclaim big green candle closing like we have here. That's what I would like to see because otherwise it's just like this, right? Daily close within and just we're dunzo. So, we don't want that. Okay? We don't want that. We're reworking the [ __ ] campaign, guys. We will we will redo that as well because I know I'm doing all these videos now. There's more content to clip. So, um we're going to do our best to uh reconfigure the walk campaign so it makes more sense. Okay.

Um so, first thing we want to talk about obviously guys, the NCAA tournament. We are entering one of the best times of year to be a sports fan. You have the NCAA tournament, March [ __ ] madness happening. Me overweight, 43 years old, I get to yell at college kids for missing free throws. What's better than that? Okay. I also get to watch an ungodly amount of sports back to back to back to back. And my wife can't yell at me because I got money on the games. So, I got Duke going all the way. However, um there has been uh a bit of a flip in the odds. I believe Arizona has taken a lead as now the new favorite, but Duke is my favorite to go all the way. In terms of sleeper picks, I like North Carolina. I like North Carolina as a six seed to go deep. Duke I have winning the entire thing. More often than not, you got the one seeds high odds making it all the way to the final four. Not every time. Sometimes there's Cinderella stories. I don't really have anything below 10 going deep, but in a six seed, I think UNCC dangerous team. I like Duke all the way. Make sure you're going and filling out your bracket on Poly Market. You can bet on each individual games. You can bet on the entire bracket and who's going to win all of these in a row. Or you could just straight up bet on who you think is going to win the tournament. So, when we looked at this the other day, Duke was the favorite. This is now tightened. Arizona slightly in the lead now uh for number one. Uh, but I still like Duke to win the entire thing. And I don't know, do you want to bet on that right at this stage, right? It's a five to one right now. They've already run won the first round game, right? So something to watch here if you're a big basketball fan. We're going to be talking about this a lot over the coming weeks. I'll be sharing my game by-game picks with you guys. But right now, um I'm so hyped to be a sports fan. So, we got March Madness, we've got hockey, we've got basketball. Okay, baseball's going to start soon. You're going to have playoffs for hockey, playoffs for basketball, March Madness. Like, things are heating up. Things are heating up. It's a good time to be a sports fan. Okay.

Um, Trump registered or the White House, excuse me, registered aliens.gov, sparking hope of Trump news on UFOs. So, I'm confused about this. Someone in the chat, tell me if I'm incorrect, but if I recall, we already got confirmation that aliens exist. I thought like I thought they had that Senate hearing where they're like they were they had [ __ ] testimonies from Air Force pilots who are like jet fighters and they're like yes we saw ships [ __ ] flying objects UAPs unidentified flying [ __ ] what air aircraft [ __ ] whatever they call them now that are going in movement patterns and speeds that we cannot comprehend or understand. and they saw them up close and Trump was on Joe Rogan and said that he heard he's he's talked to these people and they're like, "Yeah, we've seen [ __ ] we can't explain." And I'm almost certain there was like a Senate meeting where they're like, "We've recovered parts of these ships and biological matter that is not of this Earth." So, I thought we already confirmed that aliens exist. Like, I thought this already happened. There's $18 million of volume on this market. Okay. Um that and it's it's only a five to one that by the end of the year they confirm aliens exist. I thought they already did that. I thought we already confirmed aliens existed. But you can bet on it anyways. Just like with anything on poly market, politics, crypto, macro, culture, you can bet on it. We're literally betting on whether or not aliens are going to exist. It's no longer talking about conspiracy theories. There's real money, real volume on a market on whether or not aliens are real. I'm for things like the Fermy paradox, uh, and whatever the other one is, uh, where it's like the habit, I think Fermy paradox is is planets in the habitable zone, the Goldilock zone, and then the Drake equation. Between those two alone, it seems ignorant to assume that there's no other life. Then you can get into the whole theoretical physics things like maybe there is other forms of life but none of them make it out of like a type zero to type one civilization. So even if they exist they could never communicate with us. But if they were advanced enough to communicate with us we're basically like ants to them because we can't even harness the power of the sun fully. And if they are able to travel light speed intergalactically or even inter solar interstellar like we're [ __ ] like you don't give a [ __ ] about ants in an Anthill. But I think aliens exist. Maybe this is something that they use to try and take the public's attention away from the war in Iran, from the Epstein files, from the fact that the US economy is a house of cards right now. Uh maybe it's a distraction tactic. So, they registered this address. Maybe it's a distraction tactic. I genuinely don't know.

So, we saw Trump tweet out basically talking about um Cuba, right? Maybe we'll take over Cuba. Now, it seems like Trump is just in this mode um about statehood taking over other countries. This is a market that's pumping like this this market here was at what what is this here? 8%. It's now tripled. It's now tripled. So, I don't know. Is there insider info here? Is there something I'm missing outside of Trump's rhetoric that has caused this market to go from less than 10% odds to now almost one in three, almost a third? Uh I know Trump said some things about taking over Cuba. I think right now probably doesn't make a lot of sense based on what's going on but again with poly market you can bet on it.

Now this is a piece of um news that has been getting a lot of I think incorrect coverage. So the Fed bought $8 billion of T bills. Okay. So if you remember a few months ago the Fed stopped quantitative tightening. Then everyone assumed immediately after QT you have QE, right? Which is not necessarily the case. I've gone over this a 100,000 [ __ ] times, right? But QE occurs when two things are mainly happening. Okay? QE occurs when the market is in turmoil, right? When the market is in turmoil. The other time when QE happens in conjunction, right, with the market being in turmoil, like way the [ __ ] back here, right? We had QE back. Why Why none of these [ __ ] go back in time far enough, bro? I want to see a chart that goes back 2008. Whatever. I don't care right now. Um QE happens when the market's eating [ __ ] okay? Not when it's looking really good and not when it's really [ __ ] strong. We're still near all-time highs for all the for all the bearishness that I've given on the markets, right? The last time we had QE properly was way back here. Well, not the last time, sorry. We've had QE more recently than, but we had QE way back here. Okay, way back here. What also happened here? The market was in turmoil. We're coming out of a recession. Rates were near zero. We've had now two straight FOMC meetings with no rate cuts and the markets, as much as I'm bearish and giving them [ __ ] are like five or six, like maybe 7% off of all-time high. This is not the environment for QE whatsoever. However, a little bit ago, right, the Fed said that they are going to routinely buy T bills and the total amount was 40 billion. When they initially announced this much, people like, "Oh my god, 40 billion of QE getting injected into the market." Okay, that's not QE. QE is trillions. Okay, QE is trillions. So this was a routine buy for them. Some people are saying this is bullish. Some people are saying that this is be this is bearish. This is related to the oil crisis. This is one of those situations guys that I talk about all the time. Don't try and be like don't be so smart to not know that you're [ __ ] Okay? I've been trading a long time. I've traded multiple market cycles for Bitcoin. I've traded equities. I've traded options. I've traded gold. I've traded silver. I am not an expert on this stuff, even in the slightest sense. I have opinions. I have thoughts. I've seen things play out over time. I take trades, but I'm not some [ __ ] expert on this. And neither are half the people, more than half the people, 99% of the people on Twitter. So, whenever you see posts like this get all these likes and people having all these opinions, do your own research and determine is this actual quantitative easing, is this liquidity ejection good, bad, was it expected? And then what you'll realize is a lot of what you see online is complete sensationalism and random posts by people have no [ __ ] clue what they're talking about. I know my lane. I like to talk about this stuff. I comment on it. I give my opinion, but I don't pretend to be some [ __ ] expert on this [ __ ] because I'm not. So, uh, a lot what I know about QE when it happens is the conditions are usually the markets are [ __ ] okay, and rates are near zero and cutting rates is no longer working. So, they have to inject liquidity. We are not there yet in my opinion. I still bet that we're going to get a rate cut in April. As you guys know, we had no rate cut yesterday. That was basically expected. It was like 99.9% at that point. I doubled down on my bet on Tuesday. This has dropped even more. So, right now I have a $1,500 position on Yes. My average is 5.3. So, I'm going to add a little bit more to this position. Now, my average price is 4.3. What I'm hoping is between now and April 29th, I think that's the date, whatever the exact date is, April 29th, the next FOMC meeting, is that the stock market is rolling over and the likelihood of rate cuts increases. Okay? And then I can make some money on this bet that I've now taken. This will be my third time in a row because if it pays, it's going to pay for all my losses and then some. Now there's a world where Jerome Powell is basically trying to say [ __ ] you to Trump. We got the midterms coming up. He's on the way out anyways. Worsh is coming in. Maybe he's like I'm just not going to cut rates. However, because Trump's been asking, there's two people who have been begging Jerome Pal to cut rates. Donald Trump and me. Okay, because I've been on the [ __ ] yes on Poly Market for three months in a row now. So, the only person who wants rates go down more than Trump is Trader Mine. If my thesis for the S&P plays out here where we get some sort of relief bounce and then continue downside, I think maybe that could line up well where maybe he doesn't have a choice but to cut rates. Okay. But I don't know. I don't know for sure. I think I have $2,000 on that position now. Let's see what happens. Okay. But because it's on Poly Market, I can treat it like a trade, right? This is separate from my SM S&P trade. Okay, I'm at 4.3. I've averaged down. My first bet it was at 10 cents and then it was at five. Now I'm at four. So if this goes back to a 10% chance, I've doubled my money even before the FOMC meeting has happened.

Lastly, we're still talking about crude, right? So crude has been bouncing, right? All of the armchair experts on Twitter have been talking about crude going up. Oh my god, it bounced. It's going back to alltime high. I still think this is very much in an area where we could see a lower high here, right? But the risk that we run, of course, is if there's continued [ __ ] in the Middle East. the straight of horm doesn't open and there's more of a squeeze on oil. This can trade back up and it can make another new high. For now, this is a critical area here where I think a lower high could form and we're just kind of hanging around there right now. This has been what multiple days now, right? We got one, two, three, four, five, six days in this kind of range. This is optimal lower high territory. It doesn't mean that the top's in. We can have another pump up and then down, right? We can make a new high and then down. But purely from a chart perspective, ignoring all of the macro. Okay? Ignoring all of the macro, the lower high happens in this area if it's going to happen because there's so much macro uncertainty. I'm not going to pretend I know what's going to happen with oil. I'm smart enough to know I'm too [ __ ] to try and trade this market right now. I'm going to continue to sit out and chill. What's up, slimes over on X? I see you, bro. So, again, will crude hit a certain price by the end of March, right? If you're bullish, there's a lot of money that could be made here. We're sitting at $93. Lot of people think it's going to hit 100, 105, 110 even. And then there's a big drop off to 120. Potentially some value on the no side here, like 110. I don't know. Might be some value on the no side there on that crude. Just going to grab a sip of water here, guys. I'll check the chat. When you only traded for a living, did you scalp? Mostly still swing trade as you do nowadays. I've primarily my entire career been a more high time frame trader. I've had periods where I've scalped. I've taken scalps throughout the year, but the vast majority of my trades are higher time frame. Cody, feel free to let me know if there's good questions coming up as I'm going through this stuff as well. Um, okay. QE Infinity who says Skele Stealth QE4. He says, "If this seriously happens, turn the lights out. The economy will go full stop. No one will leave their house. The cost of everything will go through the roof. Dinner, food, driving, forget it." So, some oil analysts are saying they wouldn't be surprised if oil went to $200 to $250 a barrel. Okay, to put that into context, okay, if you guys remember during COVID, right, oil went negative. Okay, now we're in the opposite where oil is going to go to $200, $250. I mean, that's crazy. The way that this happens, in my opinion, right, is this quagmire in the Middle East continues a lot longer than people expect. So, this just continues. It continues. The US end up putting boots on the ground and this war just drags out longer than anyone expects. That, in my opinion, is the most likely outcome that would cause oil to go bonkers. Again, I'm much too [ __ ] [ __ ] um to to try and make these types of predictions. Do I agree with this guy that if oil went to 250 um it would be the end of the [ __ ] world and no one's going to do anything? Uh I mean, I don't know. I've never lived through something like that before. Um, but this is an accurate take here and we're going to get into this in a second. It will be much worse for countries without their own production means for oil. Japped XPTt. Is the breakout terminal still coming this week? I'm told Monday. I'm being told Monday. Okay.

So, Trump here basically sent out a big post that said Israel attacked a oil field in Iran. Iran then retaliated by striking Qatar. Qatar obviously is under kind of this dome of protection of the US. Okay. Um he says that he had no idea this was going to happen. He's super angry. He's really mad. Look at him. He's really mad. Really, really mad. Um he got noted here that the US was informed. He did know ahead of time. Not only that, he okayed it. And he okayed it with the goal of pressuring Iran to unblock the straight of Horus. So is is this true? Did he have no idea? What's more important, I think, in my opinion here is that I think this thing that's going on in the Middle East, this quagmire is going to get worse before it gets better. Trump has been signaling that the war is almost over, right? And we've seen Brent spike up. This is this is a different oil than we've been looking at, but same idea here, right? Brent crude. Um, and this is after Israel strikes the Iranian infrastructure and then they attacked in Qatar. I think that this whole thing, it's the opposite of um what Trump has been kind of telegraphing, which is like this thing's almost over. We're about to wrap this thing up. I think it's the opposite. I think it's much more likely that this gets a lot worse before it gets better. And if that's correct, I would not be surprised to see oil continue to trade higher as this thing escalates. Okay, guys, we're four followers away from 2,000 on the order book. That would be awesome if we hit that before the end of the stream. Tony loves perfume. Okay, what about cologne? Tony, this is great info, especially the cross market analysis helping me learn how to take trades on breakout. Hell yeah, dude. Make sure you use code mine for a discount. Uh, so we talked about this. I hate to break it to you, but what is happening in this energy crisis is the exact reason why world wars start. If you don't have enough energy for your economy to run, nor enough food to feed your population, you will fight to fix it out of sheer necessity. This entire situation with Iran is a mess and it's extremely dangerous. So this is a quote tweet of Nenah here who said, "This is very bad for Britain." Why is this bad for Britain? Well, gas prices are surging. Britain remains 75% dependent on fossil fuels. Okay, so it sets the marginal price for electricity. It's becoming an unavoidable tax on every British household, every British person. Household bills are going to continue to go up. Uh so they have no supply buffer. They based it storage on optimistic assumptions of frictionless global markets. So, it's almost like this quagmire could get a whole lot worse and could massively blow up if all of a sudden it's not just the countries within the area and the US who are implicated. If this starts implicating countries like Britain and other places, right? Remember that other tweet? Places that don't maybe produce their own oil, don't have the reserves. What if China is affected by this because they got a lot of their oil from Iran and from Venezuela? This could get a whole lot worse. Okay, this could get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Um, summarized perfectly by one of my favorite Twitter accounts, B16Z. Everyone stay in your homes to keep oil prices down. Two weeks to open the straight. It's like the inverse of COVID, right? the inverse of COVID. Two weeks to stop the spread and to stop oil prices going to zero. We all need to stay in our house for two weeks to prevent oil from going to [ __ ] $200. Um, so hilarious as always. Uh, but I think this situation we're monitoring, I just I think it gets worse before it gets better, guys. That's my opinion. I could be wrong. Um, we're going to have to wait and see.

Last thing I want to discuss here is gold. and silver dropping. Okay, so people are like, "What the [ __ ] I thought gold and silver were this hedge against inflation, right?" And we're kind of in this weird place in the world right now where uh and I think thread guy put this very very eloquently where he's like, "How the [ __ ] how the [ __ ] do we hedge for anything?" Like how how do we hedge for anything where shit's happening, Bitcoin doesn't go up, stocks go up, gold goes up, and then more [ __ ] happens, and gold starts going down, Bitcoin's holding solid. Like, what do you do, right? What do you do? Um, for what it's worth, I think gold is into an area of of support here. Like, this is the 3-day chart. This this order block caused this massive move higher. So this retest here is super critical. Okay, this retest here is super critical. And I think if gold has another leg higher, it should generate and occur from this area approximately. Okay, silver very similar. Okay, it's a little bit weaker versus gold, but this is the general area, right, that created this move up. So this retest you really want to see hold or else it's down to them. Okay. So you want to see gold and silver kind of hold these areas that they're at now. But I agree with thread guy. How do you hedge? What do you hold right now? Right. Do you hold dollars? I kind of think so. I know people are bearish on I've heard like arguments to be bearish on the dollar for you know the petro dollar reasons. But I do think that this chart is one of the more bullish charts out there. I really do. Maybe it has one more low in it, but I am of the belief that we are putting in a major high time frame low on the Dixie here. So holding dollars maybe not necessarily the worst thing, but the situation guys, it's progressing. It's progressing. The situation continues to progress and the boys continue to monitor the situation every day. All right. Do we have any last minute questions, guys, before I wrap it up? We're right in around that hour and a half mark, which is where where I like to kind of wrap things. If you guys want to support me, support the show. If you're nice, you're not like numbers guy who's like mean, why are you streaming every day? Are you poor? Maybe you want to support me because you like the streams. Why else would you be watching numbers guy? Um, if you want to support me, the best way to do it, click the links below. Those puppies right back to the puppy mill if we don't get more clicks and signups on Poly Market and Kraken. So, those links are in the description. Shout out to both Poly Market and Kraken for supporting me. If you want any of my other stuff, you want to trade at Breakout, use code Maine for a discount. The new breakout terminal launches next week. That's what I'm being told. I've been playing with it all week. It's awesome. It's so much better than what we currently have. Use code main if you want to sign up and uh trade, get a little discount. The terminal is going to be awesome. Mobile app coming soon after that. Um you want to join the haven, you want to see any of my other stuff, Telegram, it's completely free. Link on my website. Discord completely free link is on my website. As always, leave me nice comments, like, share, subscribe, tell me I'm handsome, share this with your friends. Uh, that's all I ask for you. And all of that is free for you to do. The great gorilla wants to know how life is for you. Hopes you're well. Thank you. Life is going great. I'm happily married. Um, I've got this huge ass TV. Uh, I'm really excited with where we're going with the content. Happy in the new place we're living. I just bought a new car. I'll be sharing with a little more about which car I got soon. I'm working on a little video for that. We got a ton of educational stuff coming out that I'm really excited about. Work's going great uh postacquisition with Kraken. It's been awesome. I'm super happy to continue to build Breakout but be part of Kraken as well. I I can't complain. Life is good. Thank you so much for asking. No answer to your technical question. What's your technical question, Luben? I'll answer it right now. Shout out to Jordan. You're also beautiful, my friend. Is Maine rich now. Maine is poor. Maine has no money. Come on, Luben. You said I didn't answer your question. Hit me with your question. Hey, Maine. Do you see a long setup right now? 1 hour SFP plus one MSB into the sweet spot on the last big leg up into a breaker then sweep the lows. It's a very complicated question on what asset. I assume you're talking about Bitcoin here. One hour SFP. So I think you're talking about this I wouldn't say it's into the sweet spot yet, but if this is what you're talking about technically, yes. Oh, if this is what you're talking about, the answer is yes. But I don't see it into the sweet spot yet. And this is just remember this is the one hour chart where the 12 hour is potentially breaking back into the range. But you also actually have a 12- hour S&P here, I guess. So I don't hate that, right? There's your 12-h hour sweep. There's your 1 hour sweep. So you could argue totally like that this is this is a long like here kind of thing for a move up. So that was your question. The answer is yes. Will we see the likes of oil and S&P on breakout? No, we're crypto only. All right, guys. As always, I love you. I hope you have a fantastic day. I'll be back with a market update tomorrow as we continue my situation. Tuesdays and Thursdays is when the order book goes live. 3 PM PST. Make sure to like, subscribe, follow.