Transcription
Week 10 wide receiver rankings. Some big names are in a buy. Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, a few more. So maybe that means some changes in the top eight or top 16 here. And definitely based on some trades, some new players will get opportunities on top of that. Here we go.
Your wide receiver one this week. That is Puka at the San Francisco 49ers. We've seen these teams already play this season. We've seen Puka be in and out of the lineups. When he's in the lineup, he's a dominant force. >> 95 and a half receiving yards in the pickum lobby. I'm expecting him to be fully ready to go. As a reminder, 49ers missing Fred Warner in their top three edge rushers. It sounds like they're going to get Bryce Huff back, but um I think they're just going to probably keep this ball underneath, make these guys tackle. I think that's a lot of Puka Nua uh over the middle here.
>> Jackson Smith and Jigba is your wide receiver, too. This is against the Arizona Cardinals. Um, again, a matchup we've already seen this season for the Cardinals. No Will Johnson, no Max Melton. They did get Walter Nolan back in prime time and he was a major difference. But just as they get maybe now their best penetrator up front, they lose their top two corners.
>> Yeah, this is a complete layup fest for Jackson Smith and J and Jigba. He's at 40% targets per route against zone coverage. And the Cardinals are fourth highest in zone coverage rate now with backup corners. He's caught 71% of his 15 plus area targets this year, which is insane. Like the average is like around 45% and he's doing it on like almost league high volume. So JSN has been perfect with Sam Darnold. Rasheed Shahid, I'm guessing he's going to be like a full-time player. We'll get to him in a second. I think that'll matter for JSN just a little bit. But for the most part, whenever you see JSN against zone coverage, it's like teach tape. Like the way that he's able to manipulate these corners who are kind of like sitting on their toes, it's it's unfair.
>> We'll talk a lot more about these NFC West matchups from a quarterback lens and just a game preview lens uh in our Saturday episode when we talk about quarterbacks and tightens. So, be sure to watch that one.
All right. Aman Ross St. Brown is your wide receiver three. This is at the Washington Commanders, a commander defense that have allowed the aforementioned JSN to go eight for 129. Rashi Rice for 993 and one. CD Lamb for 510 and one. I'm not saying all those guys are exactly similar players, but they can win and attack defenses in similar ways.
>> Definitely. So, Mike Sanderson's just like not been the same player. He was a fun prospect. Had a really good year last year when he was playing on the outside, moving back inside where he played at Michigan and like things have just not been the same. Marshon Latimore, their outside corner, he tore his ACL this last week, too, so they might be rotating guys around. Either way, it just the commanders haven't been able to stop any. They got a bunch of defensive linemen on injured reserve. You got uh Bobby Wagner roaming the middle, so Monro St. Brown could win some races over the middle as well. So, he has not been like the the sexiest wide receiver one over the last couple years, but Dan, does he have the highest floor just about out of any of them?
>> And an excellent podcaster on top of it. And the commanders really can't rush the passer. So here we go. Dropback game for Jared Goff just firing down the field.
Mecha Ibuka is back as your wide receiver for this is coming out of a by-week off the hamstring injury that he did suffer though and quickly returned uh in week seven and week eight games of just 458 and zero and 335 and zero. Obviously, Ebuka as a rookie in the first few games was on an absolute heater. Uh despite maybe not super high target volume, and I would argue despite what maybe some wide receivers did last week, namely Drake London, this is a really good Patriots corner group at all three spots and definitely at least one elite talent in Christian Gonzalez.
>> Both teams could really stop the run though. So, I think this is going to be like drop back versus drop back and sometimes those games get pretty wonky. There's just no target competition for a Mecca right now. Chris Godwin, there was news on him that he's probably not gonna return until either late November or early December. It's a setback to a bone. You can't just like play through a bone injury. Like you risk re, you know, re-breaking it. So, they're going to be patient. So, it's just going to be a Mecca and TZ Johnson who we'll get to in a little bit. But, yeah, it's not the cleanest matchup, but I just think they're going to drop back a ton because no one's been able to run the ball against New England. So, that's a really good spot. We talked about this on stats versus film. Even though the boxers have been low for a mecha, he's still running the same post routes and just been barely missed on them where he was lights out early on. So, nothing's really changed for a mecha, I don't think.
>> Yeah, those small stat weeks are kind of a Baker Mayfield thing. Again, we'll talk about that in tomorrow's episode. And by the way, Christian Gonzalez hasn't been shadowing other top wide receivers. Like what we saw with Drakelin, I think two of his touchdown passes were against other quarterbacks in Marcus Jones and is Jaylen Mills is the other guy.
>> Yeah. Um, >> yeah. >> Yeah. So, again, move your wide receivers around and if you want to not attack Christian Gonzalez, you can do that, too.
All right. Devonte Adams is your wide receiver. Five. What a season. We bring it up all the time. Seven red zone catches, seven touchdowns, I believe. What? Five in his last two games, something like that. Uh, he is the player that when you get him isolated in the red zone, it's a run play called and we can break it off in a slant. can break it off in a fade. And oh yeah, he's pretty good between the 20s on top of it, too.
>> Yeah. So, this month he's a wide receiver three in usage. He's been a top eight wide receiver over the course of the entire season. Matthew Stafford's playing like an MVP candidate. Team total is massive. Um, fourth highest on the week. The same 49ers injuries we just talked about, Puka applied to Dvonte Adams. And my notes for the red zone, he has 13 targets inside the 10 yard line. Next closest is at eight. So he's got five more targets inside the 10 yard line than the second best across the league.
Drake London once again Sunday morning. We're back. It's Berlin against the Indianapolis Colts here. Question for you. Do you think or how do you think the Colts and Larumo are going to deploy S Gardner in this opening game?
>> So S was shadowing opponent wide receiver ones. I'm guessing he's going to do a version of that. I think it's probably easier to game plan and figure out you're shadowing Drake London uh in your first game. And also Lanna Rumo could use the rest of the secondary and kind of play chess with those guys, bring blitzers if you have a number one outside corner, which now he does. Um, even with that, I think that they have no other option but to throw the ball to Drake London repeatedly. The ground game will will update this for Bejon. Um, they don't have the right tackle. He has been on injured reserve for a long time, but now both of their guards are on their injury report and one of them's for sure going to miss. The other one might play through injury. But if you guys see like the Falcons struggle to run the ball, I think it's an offensive line problem and one way to combat that would throw the ball underneath to Drake London.
>> Been highlighting that on Twitter in terms of also the tight end blocking on top of it and having to play Cal Pitts now as their inline tight end. Not great. Um, >> on top of that, Drake London is playing, you know, 34% of his snaps in the slot. That was a key to getting back on track. Not sure why Zack Robinson went away from it. So, obviously soft guarder is not going to go inside to cover that. By the way, remember a couple weeks ago when we were kind of forced by the fantasy community at large to talk about the onoff splits here with Darno Mooney and Drake London when they're on the same team. Uh I mean this is double digit targets in four straight games here for Drake London.
>> And it works. >> And it works. Also, DeForest Buckner out for the Colts.
>> Um neck injury, four games, all that type of stuff.
Justin Jefferson is your wide receiver seven. This is against the Baltimore Ravens. Uh Ravens have changed their secondary. The Gilman trade has allowed them to uh get Kyle Hamilton back in the slot and that has also pushed Marlon Humphrey to the outside opposite Nate Wiggins and all these types of stuff. So talk to me, what is Justin Jefferson going to do with JJ McCarthy as his quarterback against this reworked, revamped Ravens secondary?
spreadsheets wouldn't uh make you believe this, but I think it's gonna be one of the best secondaries in the NFL moving forward just because they have the chess piece and Kyle Hamilton like you said and Nate Wiggins is enjoying a nice uh breakout uh season than Marlon Humphrey is still a total pain in the butt. So, we've also seen the Ravens like kind of uh handle inexperienced quarterbacks over the years. They can run a lot of funky looks just because they have so much continuity in the secondary and then a chess piece like Kyle Hamilton. So that's that all makes me a little bit nervous for JJ McCarthy here who I think just needs to kind of calm down. Sometimes the ball kind of sprays on because he seems so jacked up. But if you learn anything from the Carson Wentz era, it's just to keep peppering Justin Jefferson and good things happen. So one-handed touchdown last week. Uh at the end of the day, you can only move him so low. Even if I do have some concerns with the Vikings offense, uh right here,
>> Justin Jefferson also only averaging 28 routes per game with JJ McCarthy at quarterback. So that's a big drastic difference. uh versus what we've seen a couple years ago with him.
Okay. Jaylen Waddle, maybe surprisingly for people because of, you know, how this Dolphins team and is viewed at large, uh is your wide receiver eight. Why do you still have so much confidence in him as a plug-and-play wide receiver one against this Bills defense?
>> He's played five games without Tyreek Hill. One of them was in Cleveland in weather. If you remove that game, so now the four remaining games, he's averaging over 15 half PPR points on like fringe wide receiver one usage. So, they're expected to lose by nearly 10 points to the Bills here. They're at home. They're still projected for 20 points. Just the Bills are going to score a ton on Miami. And there's some injuries to kind of keep track of. Teran Johnson, their slot corner, he's been on the injury report. Don't know if he's going to play, which matters because Waldo does go inside a little bit. And then also, uh, Christian Benford, their their number one corner on the outside. He went from limited to DNP with a groin injury. We'll have to update him on Sunday, but that would be a pretty big deal. I think the Bills are getting a little bit better in the secondary right now getting some guys back. Um, but I don't think this is like some complete standout unit and even if it was, Tua and Mike McDaniel are still capable enough of giving Jaylen Wadd a plus targets here.
>> I had the same notes about that Cleveland game. you know, the Dolphins and Tua namely could not function one in weather, but then also when you have Miles Garrett and company pass rushing against you and so now this is at home. And I understand Buffalo has done well in terms of pressure packages with their four pass rushers, but that's just a different animal versus that scenario that we got in Cleveland. So yeah, he's been extremely extremely consistent ever since Tyreek Hill went down.
Next is Lad Maci as your wide receiver nine. This is against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Uh we had the entire opening month of the season where Lad was the third wide receiver in scoring on the Chargers and now he's a top 10 option for you.
>> Yeah, he has not hit like the big ceiling weeks that we were kind of hoping for when he was being drafted at the two three turn, but he's kind of stabilized as the go-to option in general. He's a near full-time player. He almost runs around on every single drop back. I think without Joe Alt, the Chargers take a hit in general, but that also means that they're probably less likely to run the ball. They're probably gonna have to pass the ball more because they're going to be in more close games. And then also for Lad Mcconi, you would think that they were going to have to throw the ball out quicker just because they don't have Joe Alt. And that helps Lad Manki's ADO is a lot lower than Quinton Johnson. So I think that the Joe Alt injury that probably matters less to Lad Man and Keenan Allen and everybody else in the offense. On top of that, the Steelers have allowed 16 receptions to wide receivers per game. That's the most uh in the NFL. They've actually allowed the most uh raw wide receiver receptions despite already having their by-week. They're rotating guys around the formation. Uh and on top of that, you have TJ Watt against backup tackles. So, what would you do if you were Greg Roman? You probably drop back and throw the ball to your slot a million times to kind of counteract that.
Next is Roma Dunce against the New York Giants. This is a big conversation because he's off a three target, what zero catch game. James has been on everyone's social media platform of choice this week letting people know that it's not Rome's fault that he's not getting the football. On top of this, just to set this game up for you, this is the weather game of the weekend. Um, according to Kevin Roth of Roto Grinders, expect sustained winds from 15 to 20 miles per hour. There's a rain snow mix as a possibility in the forecast here as well. Uh I have more positive Roma stats to bring along to the table, but I'll give you the platform here. What do you think about Rome against this Giants defense?
>> Uh I have not checked weather, so I might have to make some minor adjustments, but just like on the surface here for Roma, the Giants play a ton of man coverage. Roma Dun against man coverage, 29% target share. That's 19% uh against zone coverage. We saw that on his rookie tape. If you guys go watch our offseason content, we go back and look at all the rookie wide receivers. And I thought Rome and Caleb were just like never on the same page against zone. And then there's flashes against man. That's kind of carried over here once again. On top of that, Paulson Adivbo, their top corner. Uh we'll see if he's going to um play in this one. He's been out for a little bit, still on the practice report or the injury report right now. So on paper, this is a good matchup for And then keep in mind whenever defenses are running man coverage all across the NFL, wide receivers get targeted a whole lot more than in zone coverage. So a lot of positive signs here for Roma Dunay. Uh just we have to update for weather.
>> Yeah, I know the weather can be a concern because I just brought it up. At the same time, I absolutely love Roma Dun higher 52 and a half receiving yards here in the pick and lobby. Again, we just got a three target game. Prior to that, we got a 10 target game.
>> Yep. And in man coverage, the stats, as you said, just go through the freaking roof. Um, they're going to be able to run the football. That's what Ben Johnson wants to do. At the same time, uh, I really believe that this is one of those matchups. And especially how we talked about, you know, against Cincinnati Bengals where you basically can sacrifice your ex wide receiver and get everyone else going because it's DJ Turner and then 10 below average talents, two bad talents.
>> Yeah. >> Um, that's not necessarily the case here against the Giants. So Rome should get it done this week. And I just love to attack this kind of spot when people just remember what happened last week versus the game before when he went nuts.
>> We always talk about it. Wide receivers, it's up and down, up and down. Everyone in the comments loses their mind. We got to be level-headed with this. Realize there's going to be some dud games, major games, and just >> ride the whole thing out. Look, and weather can change that obviously, but yeah, just from a statsbased prediction standpoint. Uh, I'm in on Rome this week. And by the way, you can play with me if you want to over on the dog app. Use promo code the show or click the link in the description down below. We'll and if you play $5, we'll throw a hundred bucks in bonus cash in your direction. We continue like every day to open up a new state in terms of pulling levers for prediction markets. So what it's Florida and Oregon most recently along with Missouri on top of this again there are a lot of these states that >> 6 months ago a year ago two years ago you weren't able to play on underdog. Now you can Texas Georgia. So go right now when one of those beautiful miraculous wonderful handsome states and go and play on the dog app.
Next Z Flowers wide receiver 11 at the Minnesota Vikings. talk to me because this is very high for a guy who ranks wide receiver 49 in routes per game.
>> Yeah, this is a struggle for me with Zay Flowers because all the like per route numbers are excellent. He's good against man and zone coverage. The Ravens are supposed to score a bunch of points here over the past two years. 2.2 yards per route with Lamar Jackson. That's strong as well. The problem is Z Flowers has five of the 59 receiving touchdowns with Lamar over the last two years. Five of 59. So, like, is that just because he's small? Is that gonna ever rebound positively here? I'm guessing it's kind of in the middle because they use all those tight ends and then Rashad Baitman. Um, but the Vikings are also kind of an interesting defense as well when you have Andrew Van Ginkle returning and their offense or their defense is looking a whole lot better. So, kind of middle grounding this. He might end up being just one of these players where you see 67 and a half receiving yards in the pick and lobby. get excited. But at the same time, you got to remember a lot of the wide receivers that are ranked a little bit lower uh than that in the yardage uh numbers are maybe a little bit more likely to score a touchdown than Z Flowers despite him being on the Ravens. Kind of like a weird player.
>> This is the first time that Lamar Jackson and uh Brian Flores have faced off against each other, I think, since like the 2021 season.
>> Wow. >> So, it's a long time. You know, that's a really fun matchup of one signing of quarterback versus a unique defensive play caller on top of it. Uh Z Flowers targeted on a team high 27% 27% uh of of passes against the Blitz. So yeah, that's what Brian Flores is going to do in key situations and maybe Z Flowers is going to be on the end of those. Last note on him, he's one of, I believe it is 10 players, receivers who have an above 25% target per route against man coverage and zone coverage. And like the list of those guys, it's like the best wide receivers in the league. And then like players like Zay Flowers, Chris Albian, and then even Keenan Allen just could could do everything.
>> Yeah. >> He's just small. >> Not targeting the red zone or the end zone.
Next, >> Michael Pitman, wide receiver 12. love this matchup for one of his teammates and not so much here for Michael Pitman to be honest.
>> We'll get to that one in a little bit though. This is against the Atlanta Falcons. He does have three games in a row catching at least seven passes. So, you just talked about the instability at wide receiver. He has been very stable from that standpoint.
>> They just pass the ball a lot more than they're giving credit for. Don Taylor is in the headlines, but they're actually fourth in neutral pass rate this month and that's kind of been the case the entire season. So if the game ever is close, then these guys have a lot more targets than you would expect. So this month he's the wide receiver 14, a wide receiver, 27 usage. He's a good player and a good offense. Colts are projected for the third most points on the week. So he's very live for a touchdown. Went back and watched some AJ Terrell. Um doesn't really shadow guys. Goes plays on each side of the the of of the field. Not like necessarily shadowing anybody. And I think that Alec Pierce has like kind of closed the gap. So I wouldn't expect Terrell to shadow Pitman or Pierce. I think he's going to see both of them. Um, but I do think that does matter because there's kind of the big drop off to Terrell to their next corners.
>> If you actually look at Drake May's passing chart last week who faced the Atlanta Falcons, uh, he barely targeted AJ Terrell's side of the field. It was everything on the opposite end. So, I'll be interested to see if Shane Syen does the exact same thing here. Um, on top of that, Michael Pitman, well, I should say this Falcons defense running single high like 50% of the time. And Michael Pitman has only averaged 1.25 yards per rout against cover three, single high stuff all season long. That's from Richie Bar's worksheet. So, again, a hint at one of his teammates who we really like this week.
Garrett Wilson is back in lineups. We don't know who his quarterback is because Aaron Glenn refuses to tell us and is against the Cleveland Browns defense. But still wide receiver 13 in your book.
>> Yeah, I'm not going to lie, this one makes me nervous, but he's been absolutely peppered. But with the football more times than not over the course of the season, this is kind of where he is on a per game basis. You get Denzel Ward, you get, you know, Justin Fields, I I'm guessing Justin Fields most likely being chased around Miles Garrett who's maybe playing the best football of his entire career. So there's like reasons to be nervous. At the same time, Browns play a ton of man coverage because they got, you know, the guys in the secondary to make it work. But against man coverage, Gary Wilson has a 33% target share. So I think it's a tough matchup, but you're not going to be able to run the ball on the Browns right now. So I'm guessing he's just one of the plans is going to be throw the ball to Garrett Wilson as much as you can. So coming off of injury, this makes me nervous, but you have to throw somebody into this. And you you'll see the next names. It's like not like a total layup line of wide receivers.
>> On top of that, how does it feel to be seven spots ahead of Consensus who have him as wide receiver 20 this week? Yeah, sometimes the guys coming off injury, they rank him a little bit too low or maybe I'm I'm a little too high. We'll find out.
>> Yeah. I mean, when he bottoms out, he really bottoms out. And then even in the games that he has gotten there, it's been a last second touchdown for absolutely no reason.
>> Those count. >> Those do count. Yes. Okay.
Nico Collins. I'm just saying that those are more difficult to do, I think, against the Cleveland. Uh Nico Collins as wide receiver 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh Nico when he played with Davis Mills for what, a half?
>> Yeah. and a half of a quarter. Uh caught six of eight targets for 66 yards. He also caught eight of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in this first match up against the Jaguars this season. So what are you expecting here in a return?
>> 30% targets per route for Nico Collins with um Mills last week. Uh Jacksonville also faces the highest neutral pass rate uh on their defense just because they can stop the run and they've kind of been rotating guys uh in the secondary. So
>> maybe the the game plan is to pass the ball instead of try to run the ball against Walker? Uh, we're dealing with injuries like Titus Howard is is on the injury report. So I think there's a chance that the Texans kind of bottom out at the same time. Like you'd have to assume just throwing the ball to Nico Collins is their best option. So, this is like there's there's been a cliff to me like already. We we've reached the cliff. I would say right around Lad McConi, I thought there was a cliff and like these next 10 15 wide receivers, it's all about the same to me.
>> Well, I can just throw them all on the board if you want me to.
>> Well, I'm not sure of the comments would like that.
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Next is DK Metaf. Again, I think you said it before that you never get a DK Metaf rif. No, >> you're eight spots ahead of consensus on him this week. Wide receiver 23 to them, wide receiver 15 for you. This is at the Los Angeles Chargers.
>> I will say Chargers and kind of their soft shell a little bit. Have allowed Hollywood Brown to go 10 for 99. Sutton 6 for 1181. Debo 8 for 96 in1. Pitman 7 for 58 and1. Waddle 695. Justin Jefferson got there too. So, it's almost like, hey, DK, sit in the soft spot in the zone and then DK run after the catch. And I think Aaron Rogers will like that connection this week.
>> That's pretty much my notes here and why I'm higher on them. The the Chargers are a very good defense in general. They're second best against fantasy wide receivers, but their top options have gotten home. And it's all that zone coverage. And I was maybe surprised by this targets per out versus zone coverage. DK Mecha is at 26%. Against man coverage that's at 17%. So he's actually been better against zone coverage than man. I think part of the reason is because I've noticed this a couple times per game. Aaron Rogers gets under center, checks out of the run play, looks at DK Mechaf, gives him a hand signal, and it's all of a sudden like a little free kind of reception. A lot of that uh could be against zone coverage if he just likes the numbers uh versus the box. So he's getting a couple like free extra receptions. Uh they're also slight dogs here in like uh there's no weather. They're they're in a a dome, I guess, technically a dome. There's it's not fully uh domed uh in in Los Angeles. You can get some great
>> go through architecture now. >> Yeah. Yeah. Which actually my my my side uh hobby is architecture. Um anyways, it's a good matchup. Like what if you really get into like the the numbers for DK Mechaf, it's actually not as bad of a matchup as you'd think. On top of that, I I think maybe some of not the zone numbers are skewed, but you know, that one 80 yard catch and run against the Minnesota Vikings was against zone.
>> Yeah. So, >> yeah, >> that can happen though. >> He could run.
Okay, we have both Eagles wide receivers. I tried on the Thursday show to pitch for Oz like I've been doing on every episode uh to rank Dvonte Smith rest of season higher than AJ Brown. He disagrees with me. The public disagrees with me. We're another week and you have Devonte Smith ranked ahead of AJ Brown while both go to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.
>> Packers play every type of defense, man and zone coverage. They're trying a bunch of things out. Um, in general, very good defense as everyone knows. The I think the easier thing is the AJ Brown splits against man coverage, 37% targets per route. Against zone coverage sets at 17%. That's one of the biggest differences in targets per route uh across coverages. That makes sense. Like if you see single high against AJ Brown, he's an athletic freak. You throw the ball to him. Against the other stuff, Devonte Smith, I think, has just a little bit better field than AJ Brown right now. Um, so I think the Packers are going to probably play a little bit of everything here. So I'm kind of just like sticking with the numbers over the last year. Devonte Smith has like narrowly beaten out AJ Brown. AJ Brown full participant in practice. Um, I'm assuming he's at full health, but he's been dealing with an injury for the entire season as well. So um, both these guys super boom bust. If you actually look at it, wide receiver 16 and 17 is actually a lot higher than they've been for the last uh calendar year, but we're also not expecting them to have a huge lead rush run on the ball the entire second half, too.
>> This season, Devonte's wide receiver 17 versus AJ Brown's wide receiver 32 in points per game. Last year, from week eight until the finish of the season, it was wide receiver 15 for Dvonte and wide receiver 22 for AJ Brown. So, like you're saying, it's a full calendar a year >> at this point.
Romeo Dobs is your wide receiver 18 on the opposite end of that matchup. This is against the Philadelphia Eagles who should have maybe a different outlay of how they're putting quarterbacks on the field. We know Quinon Mitchell's out there, but are they going to keep Cooper Deene in the slot? Are they going to move him to the outside with Michael Carter? But they already made a trade for Gyra Alexander 2. So, who knows? At the very least, I think they recognize just like what we recognize that other than the pass rusher, uh, teams just targeted the hell out of their second outside corner and Howie did everything he could at the deadline to, uh, make that not the case moving forward.
>> The Eagles held corner two tryyouts for the month of September. Nobody won the job, so they're rerunning these tryyouts once again. So, I don't know exactly how they're going to do it. I I'm guessing they like Deine as their kind of slot and cleanup player. So, um, it's going to be Romeo Dobs versus Quinion Mitchell on the perimeter. We'll see if Quinion Mitchell actually like shadows Romeo Dobs. I doubt it. So, I think Dob's going to see some of Quinion Mitchell and some of this unnamed wider or the cornerback too for the Eagles. I think it's a fine matchup. Uh, last week without Tucker Craft, Dobs popped up for 16 expected half PPR points. Matthew Golden's picked up a little bit of a shoulder injury. Christian Watson uh, playing well but in a part-time role. So, this month, Dobs is the wide receiver, 14 in usage. Um, and I think he's a better player than a lot of people give him credit for.
Marvin Harrison Jr. had a long discussion in the Thursday episode about this one. Top 19 name for you here. I will add Seattle that matchup sucks for everyone. He did play really well against Seattle to start the season. Yes. I mean, was wide receiver 14 that week, >> I believe. So, look, we saw it against the Cowboys. Don Bland just got taken to school against Marvin Harrison Jr. on the outside. And I would like to think that with Jacob Reset, maybe we get even more middle of field, intermediate, and downfield routes on top of this. So, it's not a great matchup at all, but Marv uh if he catches the ball, also would have just had, you know, better production to open the season on top of it, too.
>> Yes, this one's a difficult ranking because I am treating Jacobe as an upgrade for Marvin Harrison. I'm also anticipating Marvin Harrison just to play better football like after this, you know, like a year and a half of like getting acclimated. Um, do you also want to know like what you said, you're going from maybe the worst defense to the best defense in one week. This has like what can go wrong potentially? Like, oh man, there's Jacobe Brassette, the guy that's been on seven teams in the NFL. So, that makes me a little bit nervous. Seahawks are also getting like better in the secondary because Nick Warary, their second round safety, is starting to break out. So only four wide receivers have over 70 yards against Seattle this entire season. Marvin Harrison was like one of the guys that did get them. So kind of like middle grounding this one.
>> The E-Man Morris stuff is going to be an awesome matchup against Trey McBride because they're basically treating him as their big slot nickel and uh so they can just you know stay in dime or nickel as much as they want to with a freak of a player that is 6'2 220. That's basically the size of their linebackers. So yeah, that's going to be a really fun match up I think with Jamie Pry.
>> And then that means a lot more Reek Woolen on Marvin Harrison and he's got beat a lot I feel like this year.
>> Yeah, he's kind of the cornerback equivalent to to Marv who like when it's going well it's going well and when it's not going well it's not going well. So that'll be fascinating there. That's like two massive humans on the outside. So fun matchup.
Maybe the wide receiver I'm most excited for this weekend is Alec Pierce.
He's wide receiver >> 34 in consensus rankings. 34 just getting no respect still. and he's wide receiver 20 for you. The reason I'm excited per Reeves' worksheet versus cover three this season, which again we mentioned, they run about half the time. Yep.
>> Alec Pierce is averaging four yards per route run. Four yards per run. That makes him like the best wide receiver in the NFL.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, JSN across the NFL right now is like averaging like 4.3, which is all time numbers. Uh we don't have databases that go back long enough for what JSN's doing, but yeah, it makes sense. cover three. A lot of times it kind of plays out where it's like hucking it downfield and you got to win at the catch point and that's what Alec Pierce is doing. And then he also is introducing some like big uh breaking routes. So we've seen some like inbreakers and then last week in catch-up mode he was peppered by Daniel Jones on these out routes and they came down with with most of them some pretty difficult throws. But that was just cool that he has a quarterback that's willing to like make these like kind of layered throws over the middle and you can get those on cover three as well. So, I think it's a good spot for him. He's wide receiver, 24 in usage. They pass the ball more than you'd expect. And then I think that with AJ Terrell, he's going to see some Pierce, some Pitman, and there's a big drop off to the rest of the guys in the secondary.
>> I'm excited for this one. >> This is again exactly the type of single high looks. Let's get Alec Pierce down the field. And by the way, I think the first three drop backs or the of the first four, Alec Pierce was force-fed the football in those. So, it's not just, oh, these are the shot plays. It's major part of the game plan heading into it. Let's get Alec Pierce the football.
Chris Olive is your wide receiver 21. This is at the Carolina Panthers. Uh, no Rashid Shahed, so it's some combo of Brandon Cooks and Devon as the wide receiver two in this offense. On top of that, I still don't know how many more targets Chris Lavi can get. He's already almost touching like the 30% target share mark,
>> right? They're going to try. Uh, I have some big-time concerns with the Saints. They don't have Tyissi Fuaga, their first round right tackle from a couple um drafts ago. They got rid of Penning, so their interior is already bad. And >> no Eric McCoy. >> No Eric McCoy at center. Left tackle is a rookie who I really like and is playing very good football.
>> But that's a lot for Tyler Shuck to try to go figure out. Um, so we'll see how much we can scam here. I'm not expecting a whole lot of touchdowns. Uh, unfortunately last week was a season low in usage at five expected points. Um, so hopefully that's not a trend with Tyler Shuck uh building here, but I think this might be the worst roster in the NFL. Even I mean there's Titans are up there and obviously >> I mean the Titans are the Titans are real bad.
>> They they are the Saints right now are right now their offensive line is materially worse.
>> Tyler Shuck has been shucking it down the field. He just hasn't hit on basically any of those passes.
>> One of those could hit though and like Chris Salvi then could have a really nice week. So again, this type of or and we also get low a dot maybe some quick passes on this one too.
So y next one Robinson is your wide receiver 22. This is at the Chicago Bears. I'm sure I have many of the same notes as you do against slot receivers. The Bears have been absolutely terrible this year. Yep.
>> Um I mean they are 29th in yards per target. They are allowing a league high 18.4% touchdown rate to inside wide receivers. So basically, Wando just has to channel the Chicago Bears uniforms into being Dallas Cowboys uniforms, and he goes nuclear here.
>> Yep. He's going to need all 14 targets to reach 80 yards, but I think that he has a chance to get a bunch of targets in this one. Part of the the Bears problem at nickel corner is Kylie Gordon's just been injured and they just finally put him on injured reserve this last week. So, they're missing their top corner on the outside. They're missing Kyler uh Gordon over the middle. So, yeah, it's just a bad spot. They also got like linebackers and uh edge players on the injury report with the same thing. I think Kevin Byer, their safety. So, we'll see. Final injury report for Chicago Bears defense right now might be pretty pretty ugly. Um and hopefully the Giants get their right tackle back. Missed this last game on the injury report. We'll see if he goes, but um they're also just not going to probably run the ball as much without Cam Scato. And then at some point, they've got to get to Jackson Derby. Dude, you have to start throwing the ball a little bit more and stop taking these I mean vicious hits at the end of games. That's hard to coach out of them, but if if they finally get to Jackson Dart, that will mean a couple more targets to someone like Wandell.
>> There's been a lot of talk of that this week. Like every single platform is, hey, he can't be taking these shots and then, you know, struggling to get the venge and all that stuff. So then if he does it again this week,
>> but that's been a thing for two years. >> Totally. I mean, we have talked about it basically every single time >> we bring up Jackson Dart.
Okay, next. Stefon Diggs is your wide receiver, 23. Uh just one game this year, over 75% of dropbacks he's been on the field, but he was on the field for just less than that at 72 and a half%. Without Kahan Booty, I'll be very intrigued to see if Mike Vrael and Josh Baniels lean in a bit more into Stefon Dicks here.
>> So last week without uh Kahan on the field, he was still at 73% dropbacks. So hopefully that goes up after they kind of think about this one. I just think in general this is the game where you're just going to see a lot more dropbacks than usual because both trenches on defense are elite and the Patriots haven't been able to run the ball. So there's no way they can go into this thinking they're going to run the ball at all. So you're just going to be dinking and dunking and we'll see how much Todd Bulls wants to um bring the blitz. But I do think that Steph Diggs is like a perfect matchup where you got a potentially chaos defense and then you have a rookie wide receiver opposite Steph Diggs. Uh, I would guess the game plan here is gonna be like, "Hey, let's have Stefon Diggs have one of those games." So, I think like going into this, I haven't felt this good about his matchup probably since the Bills game. Um, and the Bucks have allowed a wide receiver to uh, hit at least 75 yards in four straight games. So, this is one of the players where I do think that ladders, pick them, DFS, battle royale, uh, anything with promo code the show attached to him. I do like Steph Diggs.
>> Let's see what it is in the lobby right now for Stefon Diggs. blowing this up immediately. 55 and a half receiving yards, which is actually higher than a lot of the names we've already discussed here. Four and a half receptions, six and a half targets. Wow. Six and a half targets. I like it. Maybe that first touchdown score mark 5.24x. Again, you can go play on the dog app. If you're in the gorgeous states, Florida, Texas, Oregon, California, Georgia, all of you, 40 of 50, not just the ones that I mentioned, go and play an underdog right now. They support the show and you should support them.
Next is Jawan Jennings, your favorite player in the league. He is wide receiver 24 against the LA Rams. Uh he has topped 45 receiving yards, I think, just one time this season. However, against the Rams was when we got like the Kendrick Bourne, Jake >> Tongas, >> like ultimate game of their lives, >> Jawan Jennings, I feel like either was hobbled or missed that game on top of it. Um maybe he can fill in and be the superstar that the San Francisco 49ers need at pass catcher right now.
>> This is just a game where I think they're going to have to pass the ball a lot because their run blocking has not been very good and you got this um defensive line that's really solid. They've run like a lot of like soft zone coverage and that's where Jawan Jennings historically has been very good. This year it's kind of flipped. He's actually one of the highest in against man coverage and targets per route. But I think I'm just willing to throw away weeks one through about five or six for Jawan Jennings because the injury report on all those games he was either out there playing through various injuries or was just like leaving at halftime. So, he's just hasn't been on the injury report the last couple weeks. And I don't think that's a coincidence. That's been like the most productive and most utilized he's been.
So, I think I'm just going to lean into that. I think that the Rams or the 49ers are going to really struggle against, um, the Rams offense. So, if they're chasing points, and I think M. Jones or Brock Py, whoever it is, the offense is still very functional, and Ricky Pierce, it seems like we're still a couple weeks away with him. So, I think this is a good spot for Jawan.
Let's talk about the Chargers wide receivers not named Lad Mccanki, because next is Quinton Johnston and then Keenan Allen. Why the slight nod of QJ over Keenan here? Who's more likely to have like 120 yards and a touchdown? Still QJ. Um, so I'm kind of like leaning into that. I think that Keenan Allen has like a good shot of like catching plenty of passes here. But QJ, let's start with him. Still mostly a full-time player. He runs almost all the drop backs. I think it's going to be a little bit more difficult for him to hit these ceiling games because of Joe Walt. So, I talked up Vlad Makoni for the quick hitting stuff that goes against Quinton Johnson. But at the same time, the Steelers have been busting a lot of coverages and they're pretty slow in the secondary. Um, and they're rotating guys in and out, um, uh, moving like Jaylen, uh, to safety. So, maybe they can kind of catch this, uh, defense down the field for a couple chunk plays there. So, I'm not riding off Quinton Johnson. Scored a touchdown last week. Um, I know it's been like very up and down, but boom bust wide receiver three, I think makes a lot of sense for him.
Keenan Allen, want to say this. Okay. The Steelers have allowed the most receptions to wide receivers. They play the fourth most man coverage in the NFL. Keenan Allen against man coverage, 30% targets per route. 30%. So he plays half of the, the, the drop backs right now. But when he's out there, he's been absolutely eating teams alive. So I think that that makes him playable this week.
Debo Samuel is your wide receiver 27. This is against the Detroit Lions. He's by himself now. No quarterback, no other wide receiver. Uh, it was such a fun start to the season. And to me, I feel like if the Commanders were playing as well as they did last year, Debo would have had a spectacular season. But now he finds himself here as wide receiver 27 on the list.
Man, you're more of the Debo Whisperer than I am. So, um, my baseline is four games without Terry McLaren's averaging 10, uh, 0.5 expected half PPR points. Uh, but now you don't have Jaden Daniels. So, I don't know. I'm kind of looking at this matchup where the Lions are probably going to shred the Commanders, right? And then in that scenario, it's just going to be Debo in catch-up mode. But that's, that's kind of where I'm at with.
Simple math.
Yep.
I know, but sometimes it doesn't get that simple.
Okay. Unfortunately, on Friday, Ted McMillan popped up with a hamstring injury during practice. Uh, this wasn't something heading into practice. Again, it popped up during practice. They said he ran a limited number of snaps after that. Uh, and then they'll see what happens for the rest of the weekend heading into Sunday. That's not good. On top of that, obviously, it's not like this team is throwing a lot when they win, uh, to him and just in general. I think he has five, five, and six targets in their last three games. I mean, one game that they did win convincingly at home, uh, against the Dallas Cowboys and put up a whole bunch of points, he did catch two touchdown passes in that one, but hamstring injuries that pop up out of nowhere on Fridays, never a good sign.
Yeah, this is my ranking before the injury, so I think I'll probably have to adjust him down even if he does, uh, play. And like you said, Panthers, they're 31st in neutral pass rate this month. So unless they're losing, and they're not supposed to lose against the Panthers here, it's going to be hard for him to hit the seventh, eighth, ninth target. So now you are against the Saints that, like you said with the Cowboys, he just scores the touchdowns and it doesn't end up mattering. But I like T.J. McMillan when they're expected to lose, and that's why I ranked him aggressively last week against the Packers, and then here comes big boy Rico, uh, to kind of end that parade.
Unfortunately, he did drop a touchdown last week, uh, and that would have been really nice. I didn't see like that replay out there at all. But, um, T-Mac is awesome, man. And I really wish he could play against the Saints Saints secondary.
Next is Parker Washington, wide receiver 29. Uh, as Liam Cohen got on the mic and said, "Hey, we're not changing Parker Washington's role at all." And so, Hayden, without Brian Thomas Jr., without Travis Hunter, without Demi Brown, Parker Washington is going to get targets on this team.
He is. The Jaguars are first in wide receiver usage this month. We'll see if that kind of continues as the entire offense changes. But Parker Washington, just a quality slot wide receiver, more of a reliable option. So, they're going to put him in that role. The Liam Cohen offense has largely been a slot offense with some shot plays down the field and then a lot of running back usage. So, it's a pretty valuable role for Parker Washington to have by playing in the slot. He's got the easier matchup. Probably not going to see Derrick Stingley as much as like Jacobe Myers is. I'm expecting Myers to play most of the snaps, if not all of them. Um, so, so I feel good that he's kind of like in the middle of of all these discussions. Uh, don't love him because I, I have some concerns about Jacksonville just against the Texans, but he at least has the softest matchup here.
T.Z. Johnson off a buy. T.Z. Johnson still a starting wide receiver. T.Z. Johnson might do a backflip in the end zone this week.
Hell yeah. Yeah, he's just a lot of fun. So, like I said with, uh, Amecha, the Chris Godwin update is very good news for T.Z. Johnson. I don't think we're going to see Chris Godwin for another month. Um, and the two, the last two games for Tez, 12.7 and 8.1 expected points. He has this kind of role where he can win downfield. They, he also had that crazy, uh, screen touchdown where he was hurdling guys, spinning guys, and, uh, their backup right tackle was just murdering dudes out in space. They might get Luke Geti back. Um, so four out of their five linemen could be healthy here. It's been a long time since we've had any positive news with Tampa and their injuries. So, still a huge team team total, and I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball against, uh, New England. So, I think that T.Z. Johnson's like a totally fine wide receiver three play.
Jameson Williams, wide receiver 31. Anything you want to add here? It's obviously a roller coaster. Uh, he did break open a big gain last week, but he's running like 95% of the routes. It just doesn't really matter in terms of being part of the every game plan.
Yeah, Jamla reminds me of Tez Johnson, you know, pretty much the same, same role. Um, no Marshon Latimore. So, he's going to be facing a backup as the outside corner for the Commanders. And then their other starting corner has been Trey Amos, a rookie who I, who I did like in the draft, but also he still is a rookie. So, spin that wheel. Hopefully, we get the long touchdown like we had with Jameson Williams last week.
Jordan Addison.
Another wide receiver two in his team. Anything you want to add here?
I mean, Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey on the outside with Kyle Hamilton in the slot, just a very difficult matchup for a quarterback making his fourth start ever. Um, and the last two weeks with, uh, J.J. McCarthy and just everyone kind of else healthy, 6.2, 7.2 expected half PPR points. If that holds, that's wide receiver 57 usage. I don't think it'll be that low, but, um, his usage has kind of ticked down, and like you said with Justin Jefferson, just the routes are going to come down if they're going to try to be more balanced with, uh, J.J. McCarthy, which I think makes sense. And what's that's exactly how he was used at Michigan.
Khalil Shakir is the first Bills wide receiver we talked about in this episode. He has at least five receptions in four of the past five games that he has played. Uh, but those receptions come attached to a 3.7 A dot, I should say, because he's a yards after catch demon. Uh, he does get this Miami Dolphins defense who, uh, just traded away their best pass rusher and have zero quarterbacks on the roster.
Yep. What's weird though is I was looking at this. The Dolphins have been the third best team against fantasy wide receivers. And the reason is because their run defense has been so pathetic, and that the Dolphins are losing by so many points that there's not a lot of volume. So, there's only been actually one wide receiver to have more than, uh, six receptions against the Dolphins this entire year. That was Lad Mani. So, volume is a major concern for Khalil Shakir here. Efficiency is not. This is a complete eruption spot, like you said, projected for 30 points. So, he's probably going to get the fifth target, and hopefully by that point, he's been in the end zone.
Let's talk about DJ Moore, who last week had a rushing score and also a passing score. Uh, what are you expecting for DJ Moore against this New York Giants team since he doesn't have a single game of 20% target share or better this season?
DeAndre Swift's going to play, Cole Kmet's going to play, Luther Burton's going to play. We're back to the Bears where they have everybody. And across the season, uh, 16% targets per route against man coverage. The Giants play a lot of man coverage in general. So, huge team total here. Couldn't get home. You're kind of just at the mercy of how much he's going to be used, which has been a little bit more recently than before, but I think that's because of like some running back and tight end issues that they've had like in the last couple weeks.
Josh Downs, we have now discussed a third Colts wide receiver. He's still really good and like in the red zone, he's gotten some more opportunities as of late. Uh, they just, you know, run multiple tight end sets at times. Obviously, they run the football when they do have the lead. Uh, and I'm expecting them to have the lead this week.
Yeah. So, I think he's going to be a wide receiver four on average, and then he's going to have some moments of like actually finishing much higher than that whenever the Colts are trailing. So, I don't think the Falcons are going to go up there and upset Indianapolis, but crazier things have happened. Um, Josh Downs also just really good. And if we're worried about Terrell and Jesse Bates, like Jesse Bates roaming way downfield, and then Terrell on the outside, guys, you can kind of use Josh Downs on these choice routes underneath if you want to.
Okay, two traded wide receivers close out the show. Rasheed Shahed first. Now with the Seattle Seahawks, uh, we saw Tory Horton go nuclear in a spot start last week with two touchdowns. I am expecting Rasheed Shahed to immediately come in and, I don't know, play 60% of drop backs, that maybe then gets elevated into exactly what Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton were doing in those two wide receiver sets previously. That could also immediately be a full-time starting role because he has complete familiarity with Clint Kubiak's offense.
Yeah, I feel better about his playing time than Jacobe Myers, just because he played in this offense this last year. So, we'll see. I think he's going to play at least half the snaps. I don't think there's a bunch of volume in this offense. Um, unless he like goes out there and like really starts taking away from JSN, but, um, I'm not sure about that. He's also just going to get way more, uh, healthy looks down the field. So, like right now, Rashi's catch rate on 15 plus air yards, um, is at 40%, which is below average. JSN is at 71% because Sam Darnold's been so effective. Uh, Tory Horton's also been very good on these downfield shots as well. So, you're just going to get sometimes we've talked about these double moves and he's wide open. Could be touchdowns we talked about on stats versus film, and then the ball hits the cheerleader, uh, in the PMP pom. Now, the, the ball might actually hit Rashid Shahed in the hands.
Yeah, it's Tyler Shuck throwing the football. Uh, and now you get Sam Darnold throwing that football. We'll close up with Jacobe. You mentioned his name. Uh, Liam Cohen. I mean, I don't want to dive too much into this since we can't bring up Travis Hunter because he's not playing on the field. It was very odd to me that Liam Cohen made it sound like the slot role is more complicated than the outside wide receiver role in his offense. He was basically saying like, "Oh, Jacobe doesn't have time to learn the F slot stuff, so we're just going to stick him outside and run these routes." All right, then let's just have Travis Hunter run these outside routes instead of these slot things. You know, if that's, if that's the easier stuff to learn, then let him do that. Anyways, what do you think about Jacobe this week? I was wondering if he meant that he can't learn both in a week, so he's only just going to play on the outside and not that the slots's harder. But either way, he's going to be the flanker on this team, and, um, that means he's going to be seeing Stingley and Lacier. Um, they traded for Jacobe Myers because he's willing to just get smoked on these Trevor Lawrence balls over the middle. Um, and the other wide receivers have not proven that they're willing or able to do that. So, I think he's going to play two-thirds of the snaps. That seems about right, uh, in this first week. Um, and then on top of that, it's just a very difficult matchup. So, I think Jacobe Myers is a fine player. This offense is fine. I don't think Jacobe is good or the offense is good. Um, you can also do worse, I guess.
All right, a lot of fines and goods and you can do worse to close up this episode. If you have any more questions about these wide receivers, just remember that on Sunday morning, we won't have as much viewership this week because of the Berlin game, but we'll be here around, I don't know, 11:30 Eastern probably, um, to answer questions an hour and a half ahead of kickoff. Just your start sets for an hour and a half for 90 minutes. That's all we do. And join us there. All right, we'll see you tomorrow on the quarterbacks and Titans rankings.