Transcription
And hello to everyone and welcome to Vision Crypton on this Saturday, November 15, 2025, with a rather mixed map this morning. In any case, we continued to fall, we went to look for a little more liquidity a bit lower, and unfortunately, I want to say, we did not have a strong rebound. We will see immediately. Look here, I am on the Nasdaq. So yes, I am not starting with BTC but with the Nasdaq. We saw that we finished yesterday with a day that was ultimately in the green. We still continued to fall. You see here, we went very low with this wick, but we still finalized, uh, in the green. BTC, on the other hand, is still another story. If I put myself, look, in, uh, daily here, there. And well, you see that we still continued to fall sharply, but we did not finish in the green at all. We made a big red candle. That's all we did. We ended up reaching 93,000, just below 94,000, 93,983. And now, we see that we have risen just to, uh, to capture the imbalance zone, but we have not made a big rebound to re-enter the, uh, 100,000. Today is Saturday, we know that there is likely to be little movement. So that's not very positive because we risk staying here and doing strictly nothing. On the other hand, we will see on Sunday, before the markets reopen, if there is an explosion. If we could re-enter the 100,000 to finish the week above 100,000, that would still be a positive sign. Well, for the moment, it's not very pretty, and so, we wonder how far we can go. Well, look, if I put myself in weekly, well, to be very factual, and you know that I very often use RLZs, well, look, if we take, once again, the RLZ of the last movement, which is this one, well, that brings us here. You see, we will note it together. And so we could possibly return there. I'm not saying we will necessarily return there, but in any case, that it will be a potential rebound zone, and that if, on the other hand, we do not hold this zone, well, then I would truly start to worry. So I note it, RLZ long, and also, what we can observe when we are in weekly is that it is both a long RLZ and at the same time we see a nice imbalance zone here to capture. So we could still continue to fall. It might happen tomorrow. We will continue to descend into this long RLZ. We will capture a maximum of imbalance here. Capture liquidity as well, because look at this RLZ zone, where does it extend from? It extends from 93,200 to, let's say, 86,000. And look, if I go to the liquidation heatmap. So here I have put myself in 6 months up there, and you see the liquidity we have below. If we were to descend here to 86,200, well, look at all this liquidity that would be captured. So, well, there is an interest now in the market. So you will tell me there is always an interest in going lower. Yes, but there is also an interest in going higher. Look at the liquidity to the north. We are truly armored to the north as well, but for the moment, in the short term, we are in a system that is bearish, you know. We are in a bearish trend. So, well, we have to consider that we could potentially come here. And it's true that now we are not far, and that the confluences, there are more and more confluences precisely in this zone. So the confluences, I repeat, the long RLZ. So we could have a rebound here before potentially leaving again. We capture the imbalance zone that is here. There is also a lot of liquidity to be found here. So, so down to 86,200. And so 86,200, you see, that goes approximately up to here. So yes, we will capture almost all of the liquidity. So if you ask me how far we can go, well, you have the answer because there are many confluences here. So to see if we do that, uh, on Sunday and we make a quick wick and then we restructure and we leave again, or is it that we will do that rather, uh, on Monday at the reopening of the markets, or will we not do it at all and on the contrary, we will go back above 100,000 and and we will leave this entire zone to trap all the people who will place trades in this zone and therefore go back up. You still see that we are maintaining an upward trend. For the moment, yes, we have broken this large trend that was here. You see, we leaned on it once, twice, three times, four times, and there, we leaned on it once more. There, we went below. Indeed, it's not the most positive thing, I grant you. But if we look in terms of structure, for the moment, well, we would have to break this low here at the level of 76,000. We would have to go below to truly consider that we are in a bear market. Yes, that's very, very low. I grant you once again, but for the moment, in the structure, you see, we are still making higher highs and higher lows. So for the moment, the trend is not truly broken. So if you like, as long as we haven't broken this low here, well, we remain in a structure that is bullish. Yes, it's not pleasant in the short term, it hurts extremely in the short term, but when you take a step back, you see that in the end, well, we are in a structure that remains totally bullish. So to come here, many confluences, and then if we have a big rebound, well, what will be the objective? Well, it will be to reach 150k, but for the moment, we are not there. We are waiting to see what will happen, rather tomorrow, I think. I think that today nothing will happen. So, you have understood the correlations. That way, if we descend to the level of 86,000, 86,200, well, at least you will understand that it is in this zone that we really need to rebound, and at least you will understand why we will potentially go into this zone. In terms of liquidations, we have done much more than that. Yesterday when I looked, we were at 1.3 billion, so we are at much more than that. We had over a billion on longs alone, so we liquidated really a lot. Well, currently, we have 580 million of longs liquidated and 183 million of shorts liquidated. But, but I tell you, yesterday, we were at over 1 billion and over 1 billion on longs alone. Come on, that's it, in terms of market sentiment, that's it, we are in extreme fear. And yes, it's not necessarily visible here, but that's it, we are in extreme fear. Look, if I put myself here in 30 days, boom, that's it, this little wick, you see it, we are finally in extreme fear, and it's likely not over. If we continue to descend to the level of 86,000, 87,000, well, we will go much, much lower here. We will probably be in extreme extreme fear. So, however, this is very positive for potentially leaving again. Well, it's normal that the market is really very, very scared. We have broken the 100k zone, and we risk potentially continuing to descend. And yet, and yet, I remind you that everything is relatively positive. We had the shotgun that ended, we have Jerome Powell who risks continuing to lower rates and who has finished QT. We have Trump and China who have found an agreement. There are also a lot, a lot of stablecoins ready to buy cryptocurrencies. In short, we have almost everything to leave again, and that's what makes me say that the bull run is not over, that we are not going into a bear market. Have we had the fear zone? No, we haven't had a fear zone, we haven't had retail either who have returned. In short, if this cycle were to end like this, it would have been very, very different. On the other hand, if we now make the rebound, for example, in the long RLZ and then we leave very strongly, well, in the end, it will not have been very different from other cycles. That is to say, it will have made a big drop just before leaving again and it will have put a lot of fear on the market before really going parabolic. Currently, by the way, how much have we fallen? We are at 27.91% drop. Well, these are drops that we have already seen in other cycles. If we descend a little lower, we will be between 30 and 34%, and these are drops that are totally normal and that we have largely already seen. If I go back a little into the past, by the way, we will look, but, if I take here, for example, look here -30%. You see this little drop here appears insignificant, but here it's -30%. If I look here, there, from here to here, -26%. So you see, these are not incredible drops, these are things we have already experienced. Now, I'm not talking about this drop here, which is obviously dizzying, where we made -55%. Well, that hurt a lot, but you see, even on the way up here, more than -30% here, -27% here. So you see that these are not things that are completely out of the ordinary. We have already experienced this. And so here, you understand that in the end, it is a normal drop, a bit like what we may have experienced in the past. Come on, let's take a look at the other flows we had in the ETFs because yes, it continues. Look, 492 million outflows on BTC ETFs, and on Ethereum, it's exactly the same thing. We had another 177 million, almost 178 million in outflows. So yes, still and always outflows on ETFs. At the same time, that's what the market wants. We are dumping strongly, so of course investors are withdrawing. We must not forget that cryptocurrencies are RISCONs, and so as soon as the market dumps, well, they are the first to be sold to de-risk. Come on, let's take a look at the news. We have Tom Lee, you know, the CEO of Bitmin, the one who owns the most Ethereum. So he claims that leverage has disappeared from the crypto sector, that open interest for BTC is at historically low levels, and that we will witness a cryptocurrency rally at the end of the year. Well, I hope so, and I hope Tom Lee is completely right. We continue with Eric Trump, who says that if we don't support volatility, then we should stay out of cryptocurrency. Well, that's for sure. If as soon as we see 2-3%, we are either in euphoria because it has gone up, or if we see 2-3% less, well, we are in distress. Well, that's for sure, you shouldn't invest in cryptocurrency. We continue with Michael Saylor, who claims that Strategy has bought Bitcoin every day this week. There are also rumors that he sold 47,000 Bitcoin, but he denied this rumor. And so, on the contrary, he even says that he bought Bitcoin all week. In short, he is taking advantage of BTC sales. So, that's it, team, as I said, it's Saturday, so not much is likely to happen. On the other hand, it will be very important to see tomorrow's day. Is there any movement? Do we descend into the long RLZ? Do we go up to 100,000? In short, we will see that tomorrow or else at the reopening of the markets on Monday. On that, team, have an excellent weekend, get away from the screens since not much will happen today. So enjoy your day. I'll tell you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!